Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “randomized response”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22

Random harmonic analysis program, L221 (TEV156). Volume 2: Supplemental system design and maintenenace document

Volume 2 of a two volume document is presented. A computer program, L222 (TEV 156), available for execution on the CDC 6600 computer is described. The program is capable of calculating steady-state solutions for linear second-order differential equations due to sinusoidal forcing functions. From this, steady-state solutions, generalized coordinates, and load frequency responses may be determined. Statistical characteristics of loads for the forcing function spectral shape may also be calculated using random harmonic analysis techniques. The particular field of application of the program is the analysis of airplane response and loads due to continuous random air turbulence.

Graham, M. L.↗

Modeling the role of local crystallographic correlations in microstructures of Ti-6Al-4V using a correlated structure visco-plastic self-consistent polycrystal plasticity formulation

This paper presents a multi-level crystal plasticity-based simulation framework for modeling mechanical response and microstructure evolution of Ti-6Al-4V with α-lath/lamellar microstructures. Here, the model is a correlated structure visco-plastic self-consistent (CS-VPSC) formulation linking three scales: a single crystals micro-scale, a lath/lamellar colony meso-scale, and a lath/lamellar aggregate macro-scale. A selected hardening law for the evolution of critical resolved shear stress per slip system used in CS-VPSC is phenomenological. However, it adjusts the resistances of basal and prismatic slip systems based on the geometry of slip transfer between adjacent lamellae. Consistent with experimental evidences, the resolved shear stress on the pyramidal slip planes is dependent not only on the stress in the direction of slip but also on the two orthogonal shear stress components and the three normal stress components (non-Schmid effects). Electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) data in conjunction with a procedure relying on α→β phase transformation is used to construct paired variants of α-laths/lamellae satisfying their local crystallographic correlations. The procedure fits volume fractions of individual laths/lamellae with the experimental EBSD data and selects a distribution of habit planes between adjacent variants with respect to the loading direction. The simulation framework is applied to interpret the deformation behavior in tension and compression along two sample directions of Ti-6Al-4V fabricated via laser powder bed fusion. Moreover, the model is used to simulate texture evolution during rolling of the material to large strains. It is demonstrated that the model is capable of predicting plastic anisotropy/asymmetry and the concomitant texture evolution. While the model reveals a significant effect of habit plane inclination with respect to the loading direction on yield stress, the comparison of the data and model predictions shows that a random distribution of habit planes fits the flow response. It is further inferred that the tension-compression asymmetry arises from the non-Schmid effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Winners are not keepers: Characterizing household engagement, gains, and energy patterns in demand response using machine learning in the United States

Demand-response programs can help utilities manage rapidly evolving electric grids, but these programs are subject to the complexities of human behavior. This paper explores a novel method for uncovering heterogeneity in households. In this work, we use a machine-learning method known as a Conditional Inference Tree (c-tree) algorithm to categorize households based on their energy behavior characteristics collected via smart meters, and explore how this translates through into heterogeneity in their real-world response to a DR program. Using data from randomized controlled trial, we generate estimates of the changes in energy use caused by the program within each household group. Our results show that the c-tree approach differentiates households by their energy-use characteristics in a way that increases the spread in enrollment rates and critical peak reduction among household groups, compared with the spreads achieved via several conventional segmentation methods. Thus, the c-tree analysis enables the most tailored targeting of major potential energy savers and could provide the greatest increase in cost-effectiveness of household recruitment into DR programs. Our results also offer fresh insights into the relationships between household energy behavior characteristics – such as peak energy use and “structural winningness” (the ability to save money under a DR program without changing energy-use behaviors) – and household decisions about enrolling in DR programs and reducing energy use. Our research also demonstrates the potential of smart meter data, combined with machine learning and econometric methods, to provide significant value to utilities, program implementers, researchers, and other stakeholders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Cognitive Impairment of Rodents Subjected to Space Radiation

INTRODUCTION We use artificial neural networks (ANNs) as an example machine learning (ML) tool to predict the cognitive performance impairment of rats induced by irradiation. The experimental data in the analyses is attentional set-shifting (ATSET) test scores from a rodent model exposed to ≤15 cGy of individual galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) ions: 4He, 28Si, or 56Fe, expected for a Lunar or Mars mission [1]. This work investigates rats at a subject-based level and uses applied dose and performance scores taken before irradiation to predict whether a rat will be impaired when irradiated. The results of this study are significant to crewed space missions as they support the potential of predicting an astronaut’s impairment in a specific task before spaceflight through the implementation of appropriately trained ML tools. METHODS Data used in this work are scores from the ATSET, a multi-stage constrained cognitive flexibility test [2]. Our computational model utilizes the number of attempts to reach the criterion to pass a stage as a behavioral performance measure for rats. We use the post-irradiation scores, generate thresholds from cumulative distribution plots of non-irradiated rats, and calculate the percent of irradiated rats whose scores fall below the threshold to infer how each radiation type/dose affects a population. Rats scoring above the threshold are labeled impaired while the others are non-impaired. We then employ ANNs as a typical ML technique, and use each subject’s individual scores taken before radiation along with the applied dose, to predict their personal susceptibility to cognitive impairment due to space radiation exposure. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION A significant finding is the exhibition of a dose-dependent increasing probability of impairment for 1 to 10 cGy of 28Si or 56Fe in the simple discrimination (SD) stage of the ATSET, and for 1 to 10 cGy of 56Fe in the compound discrimination (CD) stage. On a subject-based level, implementing ML classifiers such as ANNs identifies rats that have a higher tendency for impairment after GCR exposure [1]. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the precision-recall (PR) curves of the ML models show a better prediction of impairment when 56Fe is the ion in question in both SD (Figure 1) and CD stages. They, however, do not depict impairment due to 4He in SD (Figure 1) and 28Si in CD, suggesting no dose-dependent impairment response in these cases. In this work, “good” prediction pertains to “better-than-random-chance”, due to the limited sample size and the high inter- and intra-individual variabilities in response to brain stimulation paradigms, as applicable to both animals and humans. More behavioral tests and biomarkers should be investigated on the same subjects, to be fed to the ML models to capture the agents responsible for performance alterations of some individuals versus others.

machine learning↗

Machine Learning Models to Predict Cognitive Impairment of Rodents Subjected to Space Radiation

INTRODUCTION We use artificial neural networks (ANNs) as an example machine learning (ML) tool to predict the cognitive performance impairment of rats induced by irradiation. The experimental data in the analyses is attentional set-shifting (ATSET) test scores from a rodent model exposed to ≤15 cGy of individual galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) ions: 4He, 28Si, or 56Fe, expected for a Lunar or Mars mission [1]. This work investigates rats at a subject-based level and uses applied dose and performance scores taken before irradiation to predict whether a rat will be impaired when irradiated. The results of this study are significant to crewed space missions as they support the potential of predicting an astronaut’s impairment in a specific task before spaceflight through the implementation of appropriately trained ML tools. METHODS Data used in this work are scores from the ATSET, a multi-stage constrained cognitive flexibility test [2]. Our computational model utilizes the number of attempts to reach the criterion to pass a stage as a behavioral performance measure for rats. We use the post-irradiation scores, generate thresholds from cumulative distribution plots of non-irradiated rats, and calculate the percent of irradiated rats whose scores fall below the threshold to infer how each radiation type/dose affects a population. Rats scoring above the threshold are labeled impaired while the others are non-impaired. We then employ ANNs as a typical ML technique, and use each subject’s individual scores taken before radiation along with the applied dose, to predict their personal susceptibility to cognitive impairment due to space radiation exposure. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION A significant finding is the exhibition of a dose-dependent increasing probability of impairment for 1 to 10 cGy of 28Si or 56Fe in the simple discrimination (SD) stage of the ATSET, and for 1 to 10 cGy of 56Fe in the compound discrimination (CD) stage. On a subject-based level, implementing ML classifiers such as ANNs identifies rats that have a higher tendency for impairment after GCR exposure [1]. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the precision-recall (PR) curves of the ML models show a better prediction of impairment when 56Fe is the ion in question in both SD (Figure 1) and CD stages. They, however, do not depict impairment due to 4He in SD (Figure 1) and 28Si in CD, suggesting no dose-dependent impairment response in these cases. In this work, “good” prediction pertains to “better-than-random-chance”, due to the limited sample size and the high inter- and intra-individual variabilities in response to brain stimulation paradigms, as applicable to both animals and humans. More behavioral tests and biomarkers should be investigated on the same subjects, to be fed to the ML models to capture the agents responsible for performance alterations of some individuals versus others.

machine learning↗

Reaction times to weak test lights

Maloney and Wandell (1984) describe a model of the response of a single visual channel to weak test lights. The initial channel response is a linearly filtered version of the stimulus. The filter output is randomly sampled over time. Each time a sample occurs there is some probability increasing with the magnitude of the sampled response - that a discrete detection event is generated. Maloney and Wandell derive the statistics of the detection events. In this paper a test is conducted of the hypothesis that the reaction time responses to the presence of a weak test light are initiated at the first detection event. This makes it possible to extend the application of the model to lights that are slightly above threshold, but still within the linear operating range of the visual system. A parameter-free prediction of the model proposed by Maloney and Wandell for lights detected by this statistic is tested. The data are in agreement with the prediction.

Wandell, B. A.↗

Progressive Response Surfaces

Response surface functions are often used as simple and inexpensive replacements for computationally expensive computer models that simulate the behavior of a complex system over some parameter space. Progressive response surfaces are ones that are built up progressively as global information is added from new sample points in the parameter space. As the response surfaces are globally upgraded based on new information, heuristic indications of the convergence of the response surface approximation to the exact (fitted) function can be inferred. Sampling points can be incrementally added in a structured fashion, or in an unstructured fashion. Whatever the approach, at least in early stages of sampling it is usually desirable to sample the entire parameter space uniformly. At later stages of sampling, depending on the nature of the quantity being resolved, it may be desirable to continue sampling uniformly over the entire parameter space (Progressive response surfaces), or to switch to a focusing/economizing strategy of preferentially sampling certain regions of the parameter space based on information gained in early stages of sampling (Adaptive response surfaces). Here we consider Progressive response surfaces where a balanced indication of global response over the parameter space is desired.We use a variant of Moving Least Squares to fit and interpolate structured and unstructured point sets over the parameter space. On a 2-D test problem we compare response surface accuracy for three incremental sampling methods: Progressive Lattice Sampling; Simple-Random Monte Carlo; and Halton Quasi-Monte-Carlo sequences. We are ultimately after a system for constructing efficiently upgradable response surface approximations with reliable error estimates.

Romero, V. J.↗

Variational approach to probabilistic finite elements

Probabilistic finite element method (PFEM), synthesizing the power of finite element methods with second-moment techniques, are formulated for various classes of problems in structural and solid mechanics. Time-invariant random materials, geometric properties, and loads are incorporated in terms of their fundamental statistics viz. second-moments. Analogous to the discretization of the displacement field in finite element methods, the random fields are also discretized. Preserving the conceptual simplicity, the response moments are calculated with minimal computations. By incorporating certain computational techniques, these methods are shown to be capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. By construction, these methods are applicable when the scale of randomness is not very large and when the probabilistic density functions have decaying tails. The accuracy and efficiency of these methods, along with their limitations, are demonstrated by various applications. Results obtained are compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and it is shown that good accuracy can be obtained for both linear and nonlinear problems. The methods are amenable to implementation in deterministic FEM based computer codes.

Belytschko, T.↗

Variational approach to probabilistic finite elements

Probabilistic finite element methods (PFEM), synthesizing the power of finite element methods with second-moment techniques, are formulated for various classes of problems in structural and solid mechanics. Time-invariant random materials, geometric properties and loads are incorporated in terms of their fundamental statistics viz. second-moments. Analogous to the discretization of the displacement field in finite element methods, the random fields are also discretized. Preserving the conceptual simplicity, the response moments are calculated with minimal computations. By incorporating certain computational techniques, these methods are shown to be capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. By construction, these methods are applicable when the scale of randomness is not very large and when the probabilistic density functions have decaying tails. The accuracy and efficiency of these methods, along with their limitations, are demonstrated by various applications. Results obtained are compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and it is shown that good accuracy can be obtained for both linear and nonlinear problems. The methods are amenable to implementation in deterministic FEM based computer codes.

Belytschko, T.↗

Simulator studies and psychophysical ride comfort models

An elementary psychophysical model to predict ride comfort was developed using flight and simulator data where subjects were exposed to six degrees of freedom. The model presumes that the comfort response is proportional to the logarithm of the stimulus above some threshold stimulus. In order to verify this concept of comfort modeling, it was necessary to obtain ride comfort data for single degree of freedom random motions and for combinations of random motions. Accordingly, a simulator program was performed at the NASA Langley Research Center to measure subjective comfort response ratings using one degree of freedom, two degrees of freedom, three degrees of freedom, and six degrees of freedom. An analysis of the single degree of freedom and two degrees of freedom data is presented. Preliminary models of ride comfort response for single degree of freedom random motions and for certain combinations of two degrees of freedom random motions were developed.

Stone, R. W., Jr.↗

Neutron Next-Event Estimators Kinematics (Rev.2)

This paper reviews the kinematics of neutron elastic and inelastic scattering with moving and stationary targets for contributions to Neutron Next-Event Estimators (NEEs). NEEs are often used for simulating the response of detectors in locations that have few random walk particles. Contributions to NEEs from collisions differ from sampling the outgoing particle state in standard random walk collisions as the location of the estimator is fixed, thus fixing the scattering angle between the incoming and outgoing directions. To calculate contributions to NEEs, the outgoing energies and probabilities of scatter toward the estimator must be calculated. This paper presents the most general case that encompasses elastic and inelastic scattering with both moving and stationary targets. The moving target case is required for elastic scattering with thermal motion due to the free gas thermal treatment approximation. The stationary target equations are presented for comparison with equations presented in canonical Monte Carlo texts.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Digital control of high performance aircraft using adaptive estimation techniques

In this paper, an adaptive signal processing algorithm is joined with gain-scheduling for controlling the dynamics of high performance aircraft. A technique is presented for a reduced-order model (the longitudinal dynamics) of a high performance STOL aircraft. The actual controller views the nonlinear behavior of the aircraft as equivalent to a randomly switching sequence of linear models taken from a preliminary piecewise-linear fit of the system nonlinearities. The adaptive nature of the estimator is necessary to select the proper sequence of linear models along the flight trajectory. Nonlinear behavior is approximated by effective switching of the linear models at random times, with durations reflecting aircraft motion in response to pilot commands.

Van Landingham, H. F.↗

Planetary image conversion task

The Planetary Image Conversion Task group processed 12,500 magnetic tapes containing raw imaging data from JPL planetary missions and produced an image data base in consistent format on 1200 fully packed 6250-bpi tapes. The output tapes will remain at JPL. A copy of the entire tape set was delivered to US Geological Survey, Flagstaff, Ariz. A secondary task converted computer datalogs, which had been stored in project specific MARK IV File Management System data types and structures, to flat-file, text format that is processable on any modern computer system. The conversion processing took place at JPL's Image Processing Laboratory on an IBM 370-158 with existing software modified slightly to meet the needs of the conversion task. More than 99% of the original digital image data was successfully recovered by the conversion task. However, processing data tapes recorded before 1975 was destructive. This discovery is of critical importance to facilities responsible for maintaining digital archives since normal periodic random sampling techniques would be unlikely to detect this phenomenon, and entire data sets could be wiped out in the act of generating seemingly positive sampling results. Reccomended follow-on activities are also included.

Martin, M. D.↗

Computer access security code system

A security code system for controlling access to computer and computer-controlled entry situations comprises a plurality of subsets of alpha-numeric characters disposed in random order in matrices of at least two dimensions forming theoretical rectangles, cubes, etc., such that when access is desired, at least one pair of previously unused character subsets not found in the same row or column of the matrix is chosen at random and transmitted by the computer. The proper response to gain access is transmittal of subsets which complete the rectangle, and/or a parallelepiped whose opposite corners were defined by first groups of code. Once used, subsets are not used again to absolutely defeat unauthorized access by eavesdropping, and the like.

Collins, Earl R., Jr.↗

Probabilistic boundary element method

The purpose of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) project is to develop structural analysis capabilities for the design analysis of advanced space propulsion system hardware. The boundary element method (BEM) is used as the basis of the Probabilistic Advanced Analysis Methods (PADAM) which is discussed. The probabilistic BEM code (PBEM) is used to obtain the structural response and sensitivity results to a set of random variables. As such, PBEM performs analogous to other structural analysis codes such as finite elements in the PSAM system. For linear problems, unlike the finite element method (FEM), the BEM governing equations are written at the boundary of the body only, thus, the method eliminates the need to model the volume of the body. However, for general body force problems, a direct condensation of the governing equations to the boundary of the body is not possible and therefore volume modeling is generally required.

Cruse, T. A.↗

Resistivity due to weak double layers - A model for auroral arc thickness

We have calculated the resistivity due to a sequence of fluctuating weak double layers aligned parallel to the ambient magnetic field line. The average response of an electron drifting through a 1D randomly oriented array of WDLs is studied using a test particle approach. The average is taken over the randomly fluctuating values of the electric field associated with the double layers. Based on our calculations, we estimate that a 350 eV electron energy the thickness of the visual auroral arc is about 2.5 km and that of the auroral fine structure as about 250 m when mapped down to the ionosphere. The significance of our calculations is discussed in the context of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling.

Prakash, Manju↗

Effects of Shocks on Emission from Central Engines of Active Galactic Nuclei. I

In this paper we show that perturbations of the accretion flow within the central engines of some active galactic nuclei (AGNS) are likely to form shock waves in the accreting plasma. Such shocks, which may be either collisional or collisionless, can contribute to the observed high-energy temporal and spectral variability. Our rationale is the following: Observations show that the continuum emission probably originates in an optically thin, hot plasma in the AGN central engine. The flux and spectrum from this hot plasma varies significantly over light crossing timescales. Several authors have suggested that macroscopic perturbations contained within this plasma are the sources of this variability. In order to produce the observed emission the perturbations must be radiatively coupled with the optically thin hot matter and must also move with high velocities. We suggest that shocks, which can be very effective in randomizing the bulk motion of the perturbations, are responsible for this coupling. Shocks should form in the central engine, because the temperatures and magnetic fields are probably reduced below their virial values by radiative dissipation. Perturbations moving at Keplerian speeds, or strong non-linear excitations, result in supersonic and super-Alfvenic velocities leading to shock waves within the hot plasma. We show that even a perturbation smaller than the emitting region can form a shock that significantly modifies the continuum emission in an AGN, and that the spectral and temporal variability from such a shock generally resembles those of radio-quiet AGNS. As an example, the shock inducing perturbation in our model is a small main-sequence star, the capturing and eventual accretion of which are known to be a plausible process. We argue that shocks in the central engine may also provide a natural triggering mechanism for the "cold" component of Guilbert & Rees two-phase medium and an efficient mecha- nism for angular momentum transfer. Current and future missions, such as ASCA, XTE, XMM, AXAF, and ASTRO-E may determine the importance of shock-related emission from the central engines of AGNS.

Sivron, R.↗

Probabilistic Study of Fluid Structure Interaction

A combustor liner was computationally simulated and probabilistically evaluated in view of the several uncertainties in the aerodynamic, structural, material and thermal variables that govern the combustor liner. The interconnection between the computational fluid dynamics code and the finite element structural analysis codes was necessary to couple the thermal profiles with structural design. The stresses and their variations were evaluated at critical points on the liner. Cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity factors were computed for stress responses due to the aerodynamic, mechanical and thermal random variables. It was observed that the inlet and exit temperatures have a lot of influence on the hoop stress. For prescribed values of inlet and exit temperatures, the Reynolds number of the flow, coefficient of thermal expansion, gas emissivity and absorptivity and thermal conductivity of the material have about the same impact on the hoop stress. These results can be used to quickly identify the most critical design variables in order to optimize the design and make it cost effective.

Gorla, Rama S. R.↗