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At least 397 records · Page 22

An Assessment of Deploying Advanced Pumped Storage Hydropower Technology in U.S. Electricity Markets

Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) is a type of hydropower technology where energy can be stored and generated by moving water between two reservoirs of differing elevations. In addition to providing 97% of the total utility-scale hydropower storage in the United States, PSH plants have operational characteristics - such as high ramp rates and the ability to provide reserves - that contribute to greater flexibility and reliability of the power grid. New PSH technologies can provide additional flexibility beyond existing, fixed-speed units. With the emergence of high levels of variable renewable energy resources (e.g., wind and solar), energy storage is expected to be crucial to the reliability and reliance of the power grid in a low-carbon future. At diurnal and longer durations, PSH plants have some of the lowest costs per unit of energy, have been proven to be reliable and efficient, are not cycle-limited, and typically have long lives, often exceeding 50 years. The work presented here focuses on a new generation of PSH: ternary PSH and quaternary PSH (together referred to as T/Q-PSH). Given recent experience in Europe, grid operators in the United States and elsewhere are increasingly focusing their attention on T/Q-PSH as a proven, financeable technology that can offer utility-scale, long-duration, fast-acting energy storage capabilities and grid services. T/Q-PSH differs from conventional PSH in that it can provide fast-response ancillary services during both generating and pumping operations. This capability together with fast mode switching times are key attributes that make T/Q-PSH technologies attractive for managing and stabilizing electricity systems with high amounts of variable renewable energy.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

COVID-19 Lead Time: Evaluating the timeliness and reliability of reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations as leading indicators of hospitalizations and death in the US

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a reliance on real-time data sources to understand the global spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Reported cases were presumed leading indicators for hospitalizations, while hospitalizations were considered predictive of deaths. However, studies have questioned the consistency of reported cases as leading indicators. This study systematically assesses the reliability of United States (US) reported cases and hospitalizations as leading indicators for hospitalizations and deaths respectively, examining the first 2.5 years of the pandemic (January 2020 - June 2022) across different phases of the pandemic and states. Using correlation analysis, population data, and forecasting accuracy measures, we investigate the temporal relationships and identify possible determinants of lead time variability. Notably, we found that the average lead time between reported cases and hospitalizations across US states is relatively short at 1.76 days, implying that reported cases might not be as effective a leading indicator for hospitalizations as previously believed. Populations with higher comorbidity burdens, such as proportion of smokers, are expected on average to have shorter lead times, possibly due to shorter time to hospitalization among these vulnerable populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Equitable Electrification Analysis for Existing Buildings in Richmond, CA [Slides]

Since June 2022, NREL has provided technical assistance in the form of research and analysis in order to support the City of Richmond in identifying strategies to equitably transition its existing buildings from reliance on natural gas to clean electricity. Building on data from the ResStock and ComStock tools, the analysis looked at the potential impacts of building envelope and electrification improvements on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, residential utility bills, jobs and employment, and indoor air quality. This presentation summarizes the findings from that research and analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Local-Scale Framework for Techno-Economic Analysis of Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

The energy sector is evolving toward increased reliance on renewable energy technologies to meet state, national, and organization decarbonization goals. This trend is creating challenges and opportunities with meeting current and future energy demand under the variable supply conditions that most renewables provide. Hydrogen (H 2 ) is a promising energy carrier that may meet the need for both on-demand and long-duration storage to maintain energy security and resilience. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is a method of storing H 2 in subsurface geological systems, such as depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, salt caverns, saline aquifers, hard rock, and other engineered systems. UHS has the potential to store large quantities of H 2 over time, providing a reliable source of energy while minimizing surface footprints at a lower investment cost compared to surface storage. Earlier work estimated that, if converted and retrofitted, existing underground natural gas storage (UGS) facilities in the U.S. can store approximately 327 TWh, or 9.8 million metric tons, of pure H 2 . However, a shift to pure H 2 would decrease the collective working-gas energy of the UGS facilities by approximately 75% due to physical and chemical differences between natural gas and hydrogen. The same work also suggests that almost 75% of the existing UGS facilities in the U.S. could maintain current energy demand buffering using a blend of only 20% H 2 to 80% natural gas, by volume at surface conditions. If we can take advantage of the suite of mature technologies of existing UGS facilities and natural gas utility systems to accelerate the transition to a hydrogen economy in the U.S., a 20% H 2 blend could lead to a 6-7% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for energy delivered through natural gas utility systems.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Threat Agnostic Virulence Assessment of Pathogens

Virulence assessment of new, emerging, and engineered pathogens is critical to mounting an appropriate response to a biothreat agent. The capacity of the pathogen to colonize human and harm tissues must be characterized to understand pathogenicity pathways and optimize diagnosis and treatment of resulting disease. Respiratory pathogens are of interest because they can have high transmissibility rates, as observed with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the causative agent of Covid-19. Current technologies are insufficient to assess threats due to their reliance on systems with only one cell type and on sequencing the pathogen. However, it is known that sequence is not an accurate predictor of function, and sequencing can be unreliable for newly emerged or engineered pathogens. An ideal system would consist of relevant epithelial cell types and an assay sensitive enough to detect changes in host responses that do not rely on DNA sequencing. We chose a system consisting of host lung epithelial cells that can be used to assess the virulence of unknown respiratory pathogens. We interrogated pathogens using this model and assess features of pathogenicity. Our objective is to leverage PNNLs strengths in tissue engineering and proteomics capabilities to build a multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) or parallel reaction monitoring (PRM) liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry assay for human host cell proteins whose abundance is influenced by infection. These responses can were then assessed for relative virulence using pathogen agnostic signatures. When confronted with a pathogen, cells activate dedicated signaling pathways, typically through phosphorylation of regulatory proteins and downstream activation of host cell networks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Gridtrust: Electricity Grid Root-of-Trust Decentralized Supply Chain Cyber-Security (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

GridTrust represents a departure from reliance on a single organization or a single person to multiple organizations and therefore multiple people across organizational structures. The motivating idea behind involving multiple organizations is the increase in security due to human factors. More specifically, the requirement that distinct people in different organizations sign off on a change or an update makes a cyberattack much less likely due to the inherent requirement that both organizations be penetrated and fooled. GridTrust focuses on the software update process as the primary exemplar for the research and development work. A novel hardware-based technology referred to as a Physical Unclonable Function (PUF) provides a microchip Root-of-Trust (RoT), i.e., a starting point for verifying that the hardware being communicated with is the hardware the control center believes the hardware to be. As a result, staff at power grid control centers can ensure the accurate and reliable identification of hardware devices from the outset. The GridTrust protocol introduces two key innovations, as detailed in this report. Firstly, the utilization of a PUF as a root-of-trust in the initial phase of a software or firmware update. Secondly, the application of multiple cryptographic signatures from two or more organizations to the update binary. These signatures are verified before implementing the update on a power grid device in the field. In terms of GridTrust hardware design, this report outlines two main components. The first is the GridTrust Native Device, integrating PUF technology intrinsically into the hardware device itself. The second is the GridTrust Interfacing Device, which incorporates PUF technology and multiple cryptographic signatures. These signatures are cross-checked within a separate hardware positioned between the power grid control center and the legacy power grid device, functioning as an intermediary. While the GridTrust Interfacing Device offers the advantage of being applicable to existing power grid equipment, it may have reduced security if the intermediary component is targeted. On the other hand, the GridTrust Native Device boasts increased security due to protocol integration within a unified form factor. The effectiveness of GridTrust technology has been extensively demonstrated, with multiple external red-team attackers unable to breach GridTrust's security measures. This was observed both in controlled laboratory settings during Phase 1 of the project and in real-world conditions within a City of Marietta substation during Phase 2 of the project.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quality Control Methods for Measurement of UCO Kernel Composition and SiC Microstructure

Quality control (QC) is critically important to tristructural-isotropic (TRISO) particle fuels owing to the complexity of and reliance on the fuel form to contain fission products during irradiation. Characterization methods for particle fuel QC have decades of history and have continued to develop as new insights into fuel performance inform revised fuel specifications and as advances in underlying technologies expand the possibilities of what may be characterized. Two relatively new methods for characterization of TRISO fuels have been published in open literature: optical microscopy image analysis for mixed uranium carbide/uranium oxide (UCO) kernel composition analysis and automated grain boundary detection in backscattered electron (BSE) images of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer in TRISO particles for grain size characterization. Suggestions and guidelines for the application of these methods to TRISO fuel qualification are provided in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Distribution Network Capacity Market Design: Marginal Distribution Capacity Pricing Mechanism for Efficient Investment and Cost Allocation

As electricity markets begin to shift from reliance on large, centralized power plants and towards distributed energy resources (DERs), there is a growing acknowledgement that more efficient planning, operations, and oversight is needed in the distribution system. This paper addresses one step in that direction by proposing an auction mechanism that uses a detailed distribution system planning model that allocates permits to end-used customers who request capacity to install new devices at their location and network upgrade contracts to utilities or 3rd-party companies who offer to upgrade system components. The resulting plan maximizes market surplus, that is, maximizes the total benefit to consumers minus the cost of network upgrades. We apply a marginal pricing scheme to the auction’s results such that the cost of each permits or contracts is differentiated by time and location, based on the Lagrangian multipliers of binding network constraints. These prices are shown to be no greater than the bid price of any awarded contract and no less than the offered cost of any awarded upgrade contract. Furthermore, the nonlinearity of power flows in the planning model result in an additional surplus that would be collected by the entity that hosts the auction, which could then be refunded to market participants or used to cover overhead costs of running the market. We provide four example auction results in a simple three-node distribution feeder to demonstrate the properties of the design. Results suggest that larger or more realistic case studies could be a promising next step.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Gumby: Quantifying multi-modal model resiliency

With the rise of cheap data and sensors, more use cases are emerging for multi-input models. Research has shown that including multiple data modalities can improve performance, suggesting that deep learning models can successfully learn to leverage complementary information from different modalities. However, this improved predictive power comes with unanticipated costs: additional inputs change model resiliency and expand the threat space for adversarial attacks. We first provide theoretical underpinnings for how adversarial success scales with input dimension. We then characterize the performance of a suite of multispectral deep learning models with different fusion approaches, quantify their relative reliance on different input bands, and evaluate their robustness to naturalistic and adversarial image corruptions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense (Final)

In the world of ever-advancing technology, Autonomous Systems (AS) find extensive application, bolstering functionalities of critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants. These systems, however, are increasingly becoming a target for nefarious activities, namely through inference attacks, trojan attacks, and adversarial reprogramming. This paper delves into a comprehensive exploration of machine learning (ML)-driven autonomous control systems within advanced nuclear reactor designs, revealing the vulnerabilities and proposing strategies for defense against potential cyber-attacks. Advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)- based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber-physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems. As global reliance on generation III reactors begins to be critically assessed, the evolution towards advanced reactor systems utilizing digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) becomes not merely preferable, but essential. The integration of semi and fully autonomous control systems (ACS), powered by digital I&C and machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies, emerges as a potent strategy to mitigate operations and maintenance costs, thereby enhancing the economic feasibility of novel reactor designs. However, with a staggering 500% and 380% increase in cyber-attacks reported against the energy sector by the United States Department of Energy (DoE) and the European Union respectively, a surge in cyber vulnerabilities specifically targeting the nuclear industry has been 2 markedly observed. Notable incidents, such as the W32.Ramnit spyware infiltration at the Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in Germany and the Dtrack spyware intrusion at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in India, while not directly compromising core industrial control systems (ICS), underscore a compelling necessity to fortify cybersecurity protocols in safeguarding reactor systems against increasingly adept digital adversaries. In light of this, our investigation extends beyond conventional cybersecurity parameters, diving into the intricate web of potential vulnerabilities woven into ML-based DTs and ACS in advanced reactor systems. A crafted cyber-physical testbed and preliminary ACS were devised to act as a mirror, reflecting potential configurations of advanced reactor control designs. Moreover, this study is intertwined with a scrutinization of ML models, developed either through conventional, manually tuned methodologies or via automated means through AutoML, probing into their cyber-risk profiles within operational technology (OT) environments. Expanding on this, two distinct ACS blueprints were forged – one navigating through the corridors of traditional ML and the other traversing the path of AutoML – in an effort to holistically encapsulate the considerations pivotal to ML-based DT control system design. Employing the SANS Institute Industrial Control System (ICS) Kill Chain and the MITRE ATT&CK Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) framework, a structured analysis was conducted, launching three targeted attacks against the training dataset, real-time dataset, and ML models, therein dissecting the potential cyber-attack implications against both ML frameworks within an ACS milieu. It is essential to note that three distinct categories of attacks were conducted against both ACS configurations, each encompassing three distinct ML-based DTs, cumulating in a total of 18 varied attacks. This exploration extends into the realms of Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense, unraveling vulnerabilities, and opportunities for fortified defenses against such intrusions, particularly where ML-driven technologies, and by extension, ACS, are deployed. Final recommendations, articulated through a lens of security, safeguard, and implementation considerations, are presented for both traditional and AutoML models, anchoring upon the existing knowledge landscape and ML-based DT modeling for ACS, and are offered as a beacon to guide the nuclear industry through the intricate cybersecurity challenges that lie ahead.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials over the last decade. The industry’s current growth trajectory is exponential and plastic production is expected to double or triple by 2050. The rapidly increasing production of plastics and the continued reliance on fossil fuels for production, have contributed to numerous environmental problems and health harms. As a result, plastic pollution has become an increasing threat to natural ecosystems, human health and climate. However, there is a lack of granularity on the contribution of the primary plastics specifically to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the remaining global carbon budget needed to stay below a 1.5°C or 2°C global average temperature rise. In this report, we explore the contribution of primary plastic production to climate change disaggregated by polymer and technology. To this end, we have developed comprehensive bottom-up modeling of GHG emissions from global primary plastic production, with a special focus on polymer value chains. We have analyzed the results under various growth scenarios in the context of carbon budgets compatible with a 1.5°C global trajectory. Modeling includes the material flows of all production stages, processes and technologies used in primary plastic production value chains, including from the extraction of fossil fuels required for production to shaping the final product. We specifically focus on nine major types of fossil fuelbased plastic polymers that are produced and consumed in large quantities: three types of polyethylene (PE) – low-density (LDPE), linear low-density (LLDPE), and high-density (HDPE) – as well as polypropylene (PP); polyethylene terephthalate (PET); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polystyrene (PS) and other key styrene-based plastics such as styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). Together these account for about 80% of plastics production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials over the last decade. The industry’s current growth trajectory is exponential and plastic production is expected to double or triple by 2050. The rapidly increasing production of plastics and the continued reliance on fossil fuels for production, have contributed to numerous environmental problems and health harms. As a result, plastic pollution has become an increasing threat to natural ecosystems, human health and climate. However, there is a lack of granularity on the contribution of the primary plastics specifically to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the remaining global carbon budget needed to stay below a 1.5°C or 2°C global average temperature rise. In this report, we explore the contribution of primary plastic production to climate change disaggregated by polymer and technology. To this end, we have developed comprehensive bottom-up modeling of GHG emissions from global primary plastic production, with a special focus on polymer value chains. We have analyzed the results under various growth scenarios in the context of carbon budgets compatible with a 1.5°C global trajectory. Modeling includes the material flows of all production stages, processes and technologies used in primary plastic production value chains, including from the extraction of fossil fuels required for production to shaping the final product. We specifically focus on nine major types of fossil fuel-based plastic polymers that are produced and consumed in large quantities: three types of polyethylene (PE) – low-density (LDPE), linear low-density (LLDPE), and high-density (HDPE) – as well as polypropylene (PP); polyethylene terephthalate (PET); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polystyrene (PS) and other key styrene-based plastics such as styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). Together these account for about 80% of plastics production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part I: Sector Overviews

“Sector coupling” is a concept that addresses potential designs for the future power industry. Traditionally, the energy sectors, i.e., electricity supply, transport, and industry, have functioned largely independently from one another. Thus, the concept of sector coupling means that the electricity sector would become the central pillar of the energy system, supplying the other sectors – transportation and industry – with energy in various ways, a scheme described by the term “Power-to-X”. This report delves into the ambitious goal set by the United States to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with a pivotal milestone of making half of all passenger vehicles sold in America zero-emission by 2030. Central to achieving this objective is the electrification of the transportation sector, resulting in complex interactions between this sector and the electric industry. As electric vehicles become more prevalent, a shift in the dependency on electricity for vehicle charging emerges, alongside a reduction in the electricity demand associated with maintaining the fossil fuel supply chain. Both the electricity and fossil fuel have been identified as critical infrastructure sectors, the transportation sector's historical reliance on fossil fuels, and the mature supply chain supporting them are explored. This study emphasizes the existing sectoral coupling between the electric energy and transportation sectors, extending beyond vehicle charging to essential operations at refineries, pipeline facilities, storage, and fuel extraction. Recognizing the critical dependency of fossil fuel supply chain operations on the electric sector, this research underscores the need for a comprehensive view of the evolving dynamics between the transportation and electric sectors. This study has been split into two segments, Part-I provides an overview of the existing fossil fuel supply chain architecture and the electrical sector. We provide an in-depth analysis of the grid-transportation sectoral coupling, its interactions, the vulnerabilities and essential take-aways that would help us to address them and apply towards an electrified transportation sector in the future. We engaged with stakeholders to understand their expectations in enabling an electrified transportation. We accumulate the understandings from the current fossil fuel-based system in developing a risk matrix, by identifying all the threats and vulnerabilities and how would they apply to both the current and future transportation systems in Part-II of this report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Reference Plant Model

This report details the progress of Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in creating a reference plant multiphysics model for the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR). This model was developed under Task 13 of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission project “Development and Modeling Support for Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors,” and is an extension of the reference plant model developed in Task 4b, which was improved upon in the following ways. (1) The discrete ordinates method was used in lieu of the super-homogenization (SPH)-corrected diffusion approximation in order to better capture the anisotropic scattering contribution and the neutron leakage change due to thermal expansion. (2) The novel neutronic spatial discretization approach, termed the ring-heterogeneous (RH) approximation, was conceptualized and introduced to capture the differential expansion of the materials in the core. This new technique proved capable of preserving fission rates and maintaining the eigenvalue within 2.5% and 266 pcm with 9 neutron energy groups, respectively. Separating the different materials in the core enables the differential expansion of materials to be explicitly accounted for, eliminating the need for problem-specific cross-section functionalization techniques. (3) The SAM model for the core and system thermal-hydraulics analysis was updated to include 61 channels instead of just four representative ones. This enables users to obtain improved spatial resolution for sodium temperature and density scalar fields. (4) All the mesh files were created via the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Reactor module, eliminating all reliance on external tools for mesh creation. (5) Finally, the fuel axial expansion now leverages the HT9 and UPuZr material properties that have been validated against experimental data. The reference plant model was used to perform a full-core unprotected loss of flow (ULOF) transient calculation, including neutronics, thermal and mechanical feedback mechanisms. Future work will be devoted to further enhancements of the model. Potential improvements to the model include the addition of the control rod driveline expansion feedback and the upgrading of the support plate model so as to explicitly include 3D effects. Additionally, a Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation funded parallel effort has completely automated the creation of the ring-heterogeneous (RH) mesh from the fully heterogeneous (FH) geometry, thus maximizing user friendliness for the sodium fast reactor sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) workflow and will be incorporated in future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Tierra del Fuego Case Study Capacity Expansion Analysis

This case study, developed by Net Zero World Initiative and the Government of Argentina, examines least-cost decarbonization pathways for Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, utilizing renewable energy, energy storage, hydrogen, and other decarbonization technologies. Being the second largest natural gas producing province in Argentina, Tierra del Fuego has historically relied on natural gas for their energy sector needs. As they look at possible decarbonization pathways, they face challenges due to extreme weather conditions, isolation from the mainland, and low population density. The study utilizes the Engage web application for capacity expansion modeling, addressing both business-as-usual (BAU) and accelerated decarbonization scenarios, with varying degrees of electrification and carbon emission constraints. Key findings reveal that an interconnection with the mainland, high contribution of wind energy development on Tierra del Fuego, energy storage, and hydrogen, coupled with energy-efficient electrification technologies (such as heat pumps and electric vehicles), emerge as the most cost-effective solutions to decarbonize, significantly reducing carbon emissions and total system energy costs. The study explores self-generation and interconnection alternatives, demonstrating the economic advantage of an interconnection of Tierra del Fuego with the mainland, as an alternative to 100% local generation. Sensitivity analyses on wind data sources and temporal resolutions, as well as projected natural gas prices, highlight the influence of external factors on the feasibility of decarbonization pathways. Challenges identified include the practicality of phasing out natural gas, economic uncertainty, cost implications of long-term storage technologies as wind energy increases, and geographical limitations for wind generation. The case study concludes that while substantial emissions reductions can be achieved by 2050, and be competitive with conventional pathways, achieving a full 100% decarbonization by 2050 would entail higher costs, particularly due to the significant reliance on storage solutions with higher contribution of wind energy. The analysis offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Argentina's energy sector, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning, investment in renewable energy and storage technologies, and careful consideration of local conditions in the transition towards Net Zero targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Scaling Up: Demonstrating Risk Reduction and Cost Compression for Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters - CRADA 625 (Abstract)

Commercial heat pump water heater (CHPWH) systems significantly decarbonize the commercial and multifamily sectors by eliminating the reliance on gas-fired water heating. CHPWH systems are also well suited to include load shift controls that enable load-up and shed commands for supporting grid reliability and time-of-use pricing structure. However, they have not had wide adoption due to factors including price, complexity, and perceived risk. Although CHPWHs have been available in the US for decades, they have not made significant market gains in part because the systems have required significant and costly engineering design expertise and proved lackluster performance. Successful widespread market adoption requires a different approach; a shift from the current custom specialized expertise project design and installation to a repeatable approach that requires little specialized knowledge or expertise and can deliver persistent performance. Using this type of holistic systems approach requires effectively integrating four CHPWH system key components: primary air-to-water heat pumps; primary thermal storage tanks, a temperature maintenance system, and a control system which has capabilities to manage the primary heat pump cycles, any back-up, supplemental, or temperature maintenance heating, alarms, and grid connectivity allowing for demand response (DR), and/or load shifting. The project team has developed and will implement a suite of tools to support faster, less expensive, and more reliable field installations of CHPWH technology and with the resulting data used to further improve the tool set. These tools include: (1) A tool for optimizing system size and costs. (2) A tool that predicts annual energy use and overall system efficiency. (3) The Advanced Water Heater Specification (AWHS 8.0) defining the components of a full CHPWH system addressing performance requirements by climate zone. (4) The Qualified Products List: (QPL) of approved products that meet the specifications requirements. (5) Training materials including online on-demand modules, instructor-led training, and virtual interactive video tours of CHPWH installations in multifamily buildings. Demonstration site identification in low-income buildings in underserved communities is currently underway. Preliminarily, the team anticipates having three demonstrations in the Pacific Northwest and three in the Northeast for a total of six sites. After the demonstration sites are finalized, and M&V instrumentation installations are complete, the team will gather performance data and confirm whether the CHPWH systems perform as predicted and use the data to improve the existing tools.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Use of Legacy Maritime Protocols Increases Exploitability of Virtual Aids to Navigation

With increased reliance on Virtual Aid(s) to Navigation (VAtoN) - also known as electronic Aid(s) to Navigation (eAtoN), or virtual buoys - a cyber event is likely to cause disruption to international maritime shipping. VAtoN has no physical hardware for visual reference and displays only on a vessel’s Electronic Chart Display Information System (ECDIS) and Automatic Radar Plotting Aid (ARPA); therefore, mariners must rely on the accuracy of the information provided. As VAtoN uses the National Maritime Electronics Association (NMEA) 0183 protocol for both Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Automatic Identification System (AIS), an insecure protocol that has been proven susceptible to spoofing, denial, and manipulation, the likelihood of a cyber-related event increases substantially.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗