Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “risk analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

BUMPER: A Tool for Analyzing Spacecraft Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Risk

“Bumper” is a computer program for analyzing spacecraft micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk. Bumper was developed in the late-1980s and has been continuously maintained and used since. The user base has grown from a few government entities now include numerous commercial entities as well. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) group is responsible for all aspects of the Bumper software. Bumper has been used to characterize MMOD risk on many spacecraft. All of the International Space Station (ISS) modules, visiting vehicles and numerous external components and systems have been analyzed. Bumper was used to analyze the Space Shuttle, Orion, and many space probes, telescopes and satellites. Bumper is also being used to analyze future spacecraft such as the Deep Space Gateway (DSG) and Mars Sample Return (MSR) missions. The Bumper Configuration Control Board (CCB) ensures that all changes to the code are approved, reviewed, and documented. The current Bumper version – “Bumper 3” – is a Fortran executable that utilizes a 64-bit architecture. Bumper has numerous features that make it a powerful tool for analyzing spacecraft MMOD risk. Bumper uses the latest orbital debris and meteoroidenvironment models. Bumper also has a large library of ballistic limit “damage” equations available that can be used for a wide variety of MMOD shielding configurations. Bumper can also handle large spacecraft finite elementmodels (FEMs) and conducts checks of the model. This paper introduces Bumper and the MMOD risk analysis process using a simplified cube-shaped spacecraft model

hypervelocity↗
NASA NTRS2019

Constraint-Based Off-Nominal Behavior Modeling for Europa Clipper

The risk analysis for the Europa Clipper mission evaluates the probability of mission failure based on the failure rates of individual components and dependencies among them. The probabilities are calculated by integrating over the intervals of time within which a fault occurs, accounting for an infinite number of cases. The response of the spacecraft to different faults can result in different schedules of activities, changing the intervals of integration. Europa currently uses models of spacecraft systems and components to simulate individual flight scenarios. The goal is to develop a framework for integrating, automating, and improving this modeling process. We describe an approach to generating the schedules for the different fault cases and determining the intervals for faults. It is not enough to just simulate individual cases because we are working with continuous variables that generate an infinite number of possible futures. Instead, we determine time windows within which certain faults can occur and use these time windows as bounds for integration. We found that determining these time windows is a constraint optimization problem. In order to represent these problems, we employ a language based on ontologies of behavior and scenarios. The language enables us to specify constraints in a simple, declarative syntax. A constraint-based analysis engine uses the declarative specification to identify bounds on system parameters and fill in details of behavior. For example, we created a detailed model of power generation, power use, and the corresponding effects on the battery in order to determine when an undervoltage fault can occur. An undervoltage during a trajectory correction maneuver requires that thrusting be interrupted for just enough time to recharge the battery such that the maneuver can be completed within battery limits. This behavior is generated based on the model to minimize the interruption time. For certain scenarios the constraint optimization problems were simple enough to be solved by hand, but the framework made the process substantially faster. It also produced solutions to other problems that we could not solve by hand or with existing tools and allowed us to generate and run many scenarios at once. The scenario language and engine greatly simplified the process of identifying time bounds and separating cases.

Everline, Chester J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Needs for Space Reactor Standards

A U.S. governmental interagency space reactor standards working group (SWG) was convened to address the limited availability of voluntary consensus standards currently in place specifically for space nuclear reactor design and safety. The SWG focused on reviewing existing standards, assessing agency needs, specifying gaps that could be addressed by new standards, and prioritizing those gaps through consensus group deliberations. The SWG identified a series of findings and recommendations relative to the development of space reactor standards, including moving three specific high-priority gap items to be pursued through a consensus standards development process: Safety and Risk Analysis Methods for Space Reactors, Testing Requirements for Space Reactors, including Facility Requirements, and Safe Operating Practices for Space Reactors.

Andrew Klein↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Processing Space Fence Radar Cross-Section Data to produce size and mass estimates

With the addition of the Space Fence (SFK) radar to the Space Surveillance Network (SSN), the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team now has access to radar cross-section (RCS) measurements for many Earth orbiting satellites. The CARA team has developed a process to estimate satellite sizes and masses from the SFK RCS measurement data. This study describes the processes used to filter the RCS data, defines the algorithms used to esti-mate satellite sizes and masses, and presents comparisons of estimated values against known satellite sizes and masses.

Radar Cross-Section↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Processing Space Fence RCS Data for Hard-Body Radius and Mass Estimation

With the addition of the Space Fence (SFK) radar to the Space Surveillance Network (SSN), the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team now has access to radar cross-section (RCS) measurements for many Earth orbiting satellites. The CARA team has developed a process to estimate satellite sizes and masses from the SFK RCS measurement data. This study describes the processes used to filter the RCS data, defines the algorithms used to estimate satellite sizes and masses, and presents comparisons of estimated values against known nanosat sizes and masses.

Luis Baars↗
NASA NTRS2021

Effects of a 33-Ion Sequential Beam Galactic Cosmic Ray Analog on Male Mouse Behavior and Evaluation of CDDO-EA as a Radiation Countermeasure

In long-term spaceflight, astronauts will face unique cognitive loads and social challenges which will be complicated by communication delays with Earth. It is important to understand the central nervous system (CNS) effects of deep spaceflight and the associated unavoidable exposure to galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). Rodent studies show single- or simple-particle combination exposure alters CNS endpoints, including hippocampal-dependent behavior. An even better Earth-based simulation of GCR is now available, consisting of a 33-beam (33-GCR) exposure. However, the effect of whole-body 33-GCR exposure on rodent behavior is unknown, and no 33-GCR CNS countermeasures have been tested. Here astronaut-age-equivalent (6mo-old) C57BL/6J male mice were exposed to 33-GCR (75cGy, a Mars mission dose). Pre-/during/post-Sham or 33-GCR exposure, mice received a diet containing a ‘vehicle’ formulation alone or with the antioxidant/anti-inflammatory compound CDDO-EA as a potential countermeasure. Behavioral testing beginning 4mo post-irradiation suggested radiation and diet did not affect measures of exploration/anxiety-like behaviors (open field, elevated plus maze) or recognition of a novel object. However, in 3-Chamber Social Interaction (3-CSI), CDDO-EA/33-GCR mice failed to spend more time exploring a holder containing a novel mouse vs. a novel object (empty holder), suggesting sociability deficits. Also, Vehicle/33-GCR and CDDO-EA/Sham mice failed to discriminate between a novel stranger vs. familiarized stranger mouse, suggesting blunted preference for social novelty. CDDO-EA given pre-/ during/post-irradiation did not attenuate the 33-GCR-induced blunting of preference for social novelty. Future elucidation of the mechanisms underlying 33-GCR-induced blunting of preference for social novelty will improve risk analysis for astronauts which may in-turn improve countermeasures.

Space radiation↗
NASA NTRS2021

Effects of A 33-Ion Sequential Beam Galactic Cosmic Ray Analog on Male Mouse Behavior and Evaluation of CDDO-EA as A Radiation Countermeasure

In long-term spaceflight, astronauts will face unique cognitive loads and social challenges which will be complicated by communication delays with Earth. It is important to understand the central nervous system (CNS) effects of deep spaceflight and the associated unavoidable exposure to galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). Rodent studies show single- or simple-particle combination exposure alters CNS endpoints, including hippocampal-dependent behavior. An even better Earth-based simulation of GCR is now available, consisting of a 33-beam (33-GCR) exposure. However, the effect of whole-body 33-GCR exposure on rodent behavior is unknown, and no 33-GCR CNS countermeasures have been tested. Here astronaut-age-equivalent (6mo-old) C57BL/6J male mice were exposed to 33-GCR (75cGy, a Mars mission dose). Pre-/during/post-Sham or 33-GCR exposure, mice received a diet containing a ‘vehicle’ formulation alone or with the antioxidant/anti-inflammatory compound CDDO-EA as a potential countermeasure. Behavioral testing beginning 4mo post-irradiation suggested radiation and diet did not affect measures of exploration/anxiety-like behaviors (open field, elevated plus maze) or recognition of a novel object. However, in 3-Chamber Social Interaction (3-CSI), CDDO-EA/33-GCR mice failed to spend more time exploring a holder containing a novel mouse vs. a novel object (empty holder), suggesting sociability deficits. Also, Vehicle/33-GCR and CDDO-EA/Sham mice failed to discriminate between a novel stranger vs. familiarized stranger mouse, suggesting blunted preference for social novelty. CDDO-EA given pre-/ during/post-irradiation did not attenuate the 33-GCR-induced blunting of preference for social novelty. Future elucidation of the mechanisms underlying 33-GCR-induced blunting of preference for social novelty will improve risk analysis for astronauts which may in-turn improve countermeasures.

Space radiation↗
NASA NTRS2023

Full Lunar Surface Visualization and Simulation Platform

This project created a visualization and simulation software platform for the entire lunar surface. Given the polar Artemis landing targets, the challenging terrain, lighting, and associated integrated crew / vehicle risk assessment, a more integrated approach to mission safety certification, potentially impacting equipment design and crew activity is required. This integrated capability will enable Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA), Flight Operations (FOD), and EVA to effectively collaborate to reduce human lunar exploration operational risk utilizing the identical tools to perform mission planning, rehearsal simulations, and providing the Safety Review Panel with integrated risk analysis capability.

information fusion↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA CARA Tools

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has created and posted to GitHub a set of MATLAB software tools for collision assessment (CA) analysis. The software is provided to the public under a NASA Open-Source Software Agreement and is maintained/updated by the CARA Analysis team. Capabilities provided within the toolset include algorithms in assessing probability of collision (Pc), collision consequence, covariance realism, Orbit Determination (OD) quality assessment, and single covariance max Pc. Additionally, a set of utilities are provided for astrodynamics topics closely related to CA, such as: Conjunction Data Message (CDM) parsing, covariance transformations, coordinate system transformations, etc. The repository is regularly updated on a monthly basis and new functionality will be added as algorithms are approved for public release. This presentation will provide a brief introduction to the toolset, highlight some of the key components which can be used in operations, and will present information on algorithms that are in the release pipeline and can be expected soon. This software will enable operators to independently perform CA calculations using the same core algorithms that CARA uses in operations.

L. Baars↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA CARA Tools

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has created and posted to GitHub a set of MATLAB software tools for collision assessment (CA) analysis. The software is provided to the public under a NASA Open-Source Software Agreement and is maintained/updated by the CARA Analysis team. Capabilities provided within the toolset include algorithms in assessing probability of collision (Pc), collision consequence, covariance realism, Orbit Determination (OD) quality assessment, and single covariance max Pc. Additionally, a set of utilities are provided for astrodynamics topics closely related to CA, such as: Conjunction Data Message (CDM) parsing, covariance transformations, coordinate system transformations, etc. The repository is regularly updated on a monthly basis and new functionality will be added as algorithms are approved for public release. This presentation will provide a brief introduction to the toolset, highlight some of the key components which can be used in operations, and will present information on algorithms that are in the release pipeline and can be expected soon. This software will enable operators to independently perform CA calculations using the same core algorithms that CARA uses in operations.

Luis Baars↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Differential Drag Efficacy for Close Approach Remediation

Differential drag has become a viable alternative to propulsion for satellites to avoid collisions, but there is little guidance in the literature to aid mission designers in developing a differential drag capability that verifiably meets collision avoidance efficacy standards or requirements, if such requirements were to exist. This paper proposes a differential drag efficacy determination approach based on empirical conjunctions from the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis historical database, focusing on energy dissipation rate and change in ballistic coefficient as the key satellite parameters correlated to efficacy. The data analysis informs the discussion toward adoption of recommended differential drag requirements. A case study is presented to walk through the process to determine efficacy of a proposed mission assuming several potential requirements.

conjunction remediation↗
DOE OSTI2024

01-16 DOE Authorization Strategy

DOE-STD-1189-2016 Process Standard – Stage Gates Establishment of Regulatory Requirements Clarity of Path Forward Integration of Safety and Design Reduce Project Risk by Establishing Regulatory Certainty through formal regulatory approvals. Flexibility in risk analysis and presentation methods. ANSI/ANS 15.21, DOE-STD-3009, LMP/TICAP

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Steam Generator Model Design Parameter Sensitivity Study Using Advanced Optimization Tools

This study focuses on design parameter sensitivity studies pertaining to a steam generator (SG) model, using both Python and machine-learning tools. The SG model is a mathematical representation (including fluid flow and heat transfer equations/models/correlations) of a steam-generating unit in a pressurized water reactor (PWR)-type small modular reactor (SMR) system. Design studies involve changing the model’s input design parameters (e.g., temperature, pressure, mass flow rate) to observe the resulting effects on the output of the system (e.g., heat transfer coefficient [HTC], Nusselt number, heat transfer performance). Sensitivity studies analyze the degree to which system output and/or desired parameters (e.g., HTC or heat transfer performance) are sensitive to changes in input parameters. By using machine-learning tools such as the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), detailed design parametric sensitivity studies and model optimization were performed. Six input parameters—namely, the pressure, temperature, and mass flow rate for the inlet of the primary-side (hot fluid) and secondary-side (cold fluid) of the SG—were randomly perturbed via RAVEN’s Monte Carlo Sampler module, using uniform distributions (±1% relative changes). The analysis results give valuable insights into SG system performance and optimization, and provide justification for researching optimized sensor placement to effectively monitor and obtain experimental data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Steam Generator Model Design Parameter Sensitivity Study Using Advanced Optimization Tools

This study focuses on design parameter sensitivity studies pertaining to a steam generator (SG) model, using both Python and machine-learning tools. The SG model is a mathematical representation (including fluid flow and heat transfer equations/models/correlations) of a steam-generating unit in a pressurized water reactor (PWR)-type small modular reactor (SMR) system. Design studies involve changing the model’s input design parameters (e.g., temperature, pressure, mass flow rate) to observe the resulting effects on the output of the system (e.g., heat transfer coefficient [HTC], Nusselt number, heat transfer performance). Sensitivity studies analyze the degree to which system output and/or desired parameters (e.g., HTC or heat transfer performance) are sensitive to changes in input parameters. By using machine-learning tools such as the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), detailed design parametric sensitivity studies and model optimization were performed. Six input parameters—namely, the pressure, temperature, and mass flow rate for the inlet of the primary-side (hot fluid) and secondary-side (cold fluid) of the SG—were randomly perturbed via RAVEN’s Monte Carlo Sampler module, using uniform distributions (±1% relative changes). The analysis results give valuable insights into SG system performance and optimization, and provide justification for researching optimized sensor placement to effectively monitor and obtain experimental data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Hatfield, Glen S.↗