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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Quasar Identification Using Multivariate Probability Density Estimated from Nonparametric Conditional Probabilities

Nonparametric estimation for a probability density function that describes multivariate data has typically been addressed by kernel density estimation (KDE). A novel density estimator recently developed by Farmer and Jacobs offers an alternative high-throughput automated approach to univariate nonparametric density estimation based on maximum entropy and order statistics, improving accuracy over univariate KDE. This article presents an extension of the single variable case to multiple variables. The univariate estimator is used to recursively calculate a product array of one-dimensional conditional probabilities. In combination with interpolation methods, a complete joint probability density estimate is generated for multiple variables. Good accuracy and speed performance in synthetic data are demonstrated by a numerical study using known distributions over a range of sample sizes from 100 to 10 6 for two to six variables. Performance in terms of speed and accuracy is compared to KDE. The multivariate density estimate developed here tends to perform better as the number of samples and/or variables increases. As an example application, measurements are analyzed over five filters of photometric data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 17. The multivariate estimation is used to form the basis for a binary classifier that distinguishes quasars from galaxies and stars with up to 94% accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Simplified View of the Geochemical Diversity Surrounding Home Plate

The Home Plate feature (Fig. 1) within the Inner Basin of the Columbia Hills consists of layered rocks and has been interpreted as an accumulation of pyroclastic deposits [1]. Samples analyzed by the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer within ~25 meters of the eastern margin of Home Plate exhibit a strikingly diverse range of geochemical compositions, including the highest levels of Mg, Si, K, Zn, and Ni measured at Gusev Crater. This wide range of chemical variability across the 40+ samples analyzed on and near Home Plate can be represented by contributions from only six primary components. This reconstruction is not reflected in the M ssbauer mineralogy suggesting that significant alteration of the contributing components has occurred.

Yen, A. S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Collective Phenomena Impact CO 2 Reactivity and Speciation in Different Media

CO 2 has attracted considerable attention in the recent years due to its role in the greenhouse effect and environmental management. While its reaction with water has been studied extensively, the same cannot be said for reactivity in supercritical CO 2 phase, where the conjugate acid/base equilibria proceed through different mechanisms and activation barriers. Furthermore, in spite of the apparent simplicity of the CO 2 + H 2 O reaction, the collective effect of different environments has drastic influence on the free energy profile. Enhanced sampling techniques and well-tailored collective variables provide a detailed picture of the enthalpic and entropic drivers underscoring the differences in the formation mechanism of carbonic acid in the gas, aqueous and supercritical CO 2 phases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Magnesium Isotope Composition of Samples Returned From Asteroid Ryugu

The nucleosynthetic isotope composition of planetary materials provides a record of the heterogeneous distribution of stardust within the early solar system. In 2020 December, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Hayabusa2 spacecraft returned to Earth the first samples of a primitive asteroid, namely, the Cb-type asteroid Ryugu. This provides a unique opportunity to explore the kinship between primitive asteroids and carbonaceous chondrites. We report high-precision μ 26 Mg* and μ 25 Mg values of Ryugu samples together with those of CI, CM, CV, and ungrouped carbonaceous chondrites. The stable Mg isotope composition of Ryugu aliquots defines μ 25 Mg values ranging from –160 ± 20 ppm to –272 ± 30 ppm, which extends to lighter compositions relative to Ivuna-type (CI) and other carbonaceous chondrite groups. We interpret the μ 25 Mg variability as reflecting heterogeneous sampling of a carbonate phase hosting isotopically light Mg (μ 25 Mg ∼ –1400 ppm) formed by low temperature equilibrium processes. After correcting for this effect, Ryugu samples return homogeneous μ 26 Mg* values corresponding to a weighted mean of 7.1 ± 0.8 ppm. Thus, Ryugu defines a μ 26 Mg* excess relative to the CI and CR chondrite reservoirs corresponding to 3.8 ± 1.1 and 11.9 ± 0.8 ppm, respectively. These variations cannot be accounted for by in situ decay of 26 Al given their respective 27 Al/ 24 Mg ratios. Instead, it requires that Ryugu and the CI and CR parent bodies formed from material with a different initial 26 Al/ 27 Al ratio or that they are sourced from material with distinct Mg isotope compositions. Thus, our new Mg isotope data challenge the notion that Ryugu and CI chondrites share a common nucleosynthetic heritage.

Solar system evolution↗
DOE OSTI2022

Projected network performance for next generation aerosol monitoring systems

Aerosol monitoring for radioactivity is a mature and proven technology. However, by improving key specifications of aerosol monitoring equipment, more samples per day can be collected and analyzed with the same minimum detectable concentrations as current systems. This work models hypothetical releases of 140 Ba and 131 I over a range of magnitudes corresponding to the inventory produced from the fission of about 100 g to 1 kiloton TNT-equivalent of 235 U. The releases occur over an entire year to incorporate the natural variability in atmospheric transport. Sampling equipment located at the 79 locations for radionuclide stations identified in the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) for the International Monitoring System are used to determine the detections of the individual releases. Alternative collection schemes in next generation equipment that collect 2, 3, or 4 samples per day, rather than the current 1 sample per day, would result in detections in many more samples at more stations with detections for a given release level. The authors posit that next generation equipment will result in increased network resilience to outages and improved source-location capability for lower yield source releases. The application of dual-detector and coincidence measurements to these systems would significantly boost sensitivity for some isotopes and would further enhance the monitoring capability.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2020

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

GMAO Sub/Seasonal prediction system (S2S) is being readied for a major upgrade to GEOS-S2S Version 3. An important factor in successful extended range forecast is the definition of an ensemble For initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. We plan to run a relatively large ensemble of 40 members for sub-seasonal forecast (up to 3 months), at which point we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of the extensive testing of various ways to generate the perturbations to the initial conditions and the validation of the stratified sampling strategy we chose.To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states separated by 1-10 days, randomly chosen from a corresponding season. We considered perturbing separately only the atmospheric fields or only the ocean or both of the forecast initial conditions. Considering varying separation times between the analysis states, we were able to produce perturbations sampling various modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread.Our ensemble size for sub-seasonal forecasts was determined as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes, NAO, PNA and AO. It is not feasible to run equally large ensemble for seasonal forecasts. Using a stratified sampling procedure we can identify the emerging directions of error growth. By comparing the stratified ensemble with randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we were able to show that the former better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna↗
DOE OSTI2019

Soil Respiration Variability and Correlation Across a Wide Range of Temporal Scales

Abstract The high temporal variability of the soil‐to‐atmosphere CO 2 flux (soil respiration, R S ) has been studied at hourly to multiannual time scales but remains less well understood than R S spatial variability. How R S fluxes vary and are autocorrelated at various time lags has practical implications for sampling and more fundamentally for our understanding of its abiotic and biotic underlying mechanisms. We examined the variability, correlation, and sampling requirements of R S over a wide range of temporal scales in a temperate deciduous forest in eastern Maryland, USA, using both automated (temporally continuous, N = 30,036 over 10 months) and survey (spatially diverse, temporally sparse, N = 1,912 over 17 months) data. Data from a global R S database were also used to examine interannual variability in comparable forests. The coefficient of variability of successive measurements generally varied from the minute (median coefficient of variation 16%) to hourly and daily (11–12%) time scales. Successive R S values measured at a given collar exhibited a strong hour‐to‐hour correlation ( r = 0.931) and a moderate correlation at a 2‐hr lag (0.289); day‐to‐day (i.e., 24 hr lag) hourly observations were uncorrelated. Daily R S means were well correlated at a 1‐day lag ( r = 0.856) but not at any further time lag. In a linear mixed‐effects model predicting R S , soil temperature and moisture exerted consistently strong effects regardless of time scale, and model coefficient of variability was generally high (>80%). These results provide new opportunities to explore the drivers and variability of R S fluxes, quantify sampling requirements, and improve error propagation.

Bond‐Lamberty, Ben↗
DOE OSTI2016

A PHOTOMETRIC STUDY OF FOUR RECENTLY DISCOVERED CONTACT BINARIES: 1SWASP J064501.21+342154.9, 1SWASP J155822.10-025604.8, 1SWASP J212808.86+151622.0, AND UCAC4 436-062932

We present new, high-quality multicolor observations of four recently discovered contact binaries, 1SWASP J064501.21+342154.9, 1SWASP J155822.10-025604.8, 1SWASP J212808.86+151622.0, and UCAC4 436-062932, and analyze their light curves to determine orbital and physical parameters using the modeling program of G. Djurašević. In the absence of spectroscopic observations, the effective temperatures of the brighter components are estimated from the color indices, and the mass ratios are determined with the q -search method. The analysis shows that all four systems are W UMa type binaries in shallow contact configurations, consisting of late-type main-sequence primaries and evolved secondaries with active surface regions (dark or bright spots) resulting from magnetic activity or ongoing transfer of thermal energy between the components. We compare the derived orbital and stellar parameters for these four variables with a large sample of previously analyzed W UMa stars and find that our results fit it well.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid Gradient Method to Designing Bayesian Experiments for Implicit Models

Bayesian experimental design (BED) aims at designing an experiment to maximize the information gathering from the collected data. The optimal design is usually achieved by maximizing the mutual information (MI) between the data and the model parameters. When the analytical expression of the MI is unavailable, e.g.,having implicit models with intractable data distributions, a neural network-based lower bound of the MI was recently proposed and a gradient ascent method was used to maximize the lower bound [1]. However, the approach in [1] requires a pathwise sampling path to compute the gradient of the MI lower bound with respect to the design variables, and such a pathwise sampling path is usually inaccessible for implicit models. In this work, we propose a hybrid gradient approach that leverages recent advances in variational MI estimator and evolution strategies (ES)combined with black-box stochastic gradient ascent (SGA) to maximize the MI lower bound. This allows the design process to be achieved through a unified scalable procedure for implicit models without sampling path gradients. Several experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly improves the scalability of BED for implicit models in high-dimensional design space.

Zhang, Jiaxin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development towards stable chlorine isotope measurements of astromaterials using the modified Middleton source of an accelerator mass spectrometer

The volatile element Cl can be lost during the formation and evolution of planetary bodies, leading to fractionation of its two stable isotopes 35 Cl and 37 Cl. Chlorine isotope variations (reported as δ 37 Cl in parts per thousand (‰) relative to Standard Mean Ocean Chloride, SMOC) are documented to exceed 80‰ between different lunar rock samples and have been variably interpreted as the fingerprint of degassing during accretion, magma ocean, or volcanic portions of lunar history. The large intersample and intrasample variations observed by both bulk isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) and in-situ secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) methods are difficult to interpret in part because of a paucity of bulk Cl isotope measurements. This lack of high-precision bulk data is due to the relative rarity of IRMS laboratories capable of making these high precision measurements on small samples of precious planetary materials such as those returned by human or robotic exploration. Here we present a new method for performing high precision δ 37 Cl measurements using the modified Middleton ion source of an existing accelerator mass spectrometer. For samples with as little as 1 μg Cl–the equivalent of 2–4 mm 3 of a typical lunar rock sample–the average cathode accuracy is ~1‰. Finally, cathode reproducibility is typically ~1‰ (2σ) for samples with at least 10 μg of Cl, increasing to ~3–6‰ for aliquots with ~1–2 μg Cl, similar to published SIMS results and sufficient to study astromaterials from the Moon, Mars, or 4 Vesta, which have tens of ‰ observed variations.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Development Towards Stable Chlorine Isotope Measurements of Astromaterials Using the Modified Middleton Source of an Accelerator Mass Spectrometer

The volatile element Cl can be lost during the formation and evolution of planetary bodies, leading to fractionation of its two stable isotopes 35Cl and 37Cl. Chlorine isotope variations (reported as δ37Cl in parts per thousand (‰) relative to Standard Mean Ocean Chloride, SMOC) are documented to exceed 80‰ between different lunar rock samples and have been variably interpreted as the fingerprint of degassing during accretion, magma ocean, or volcanic portions of lunar history. The large intersample and intrasample variations observed by both bulk isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) and in-situ secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) methods are difficult to interpret in part because of a paucity of bulk Cl isotope measurements. This lack of high-precision bulk data is due to the relative rarity of IRMS laboratories capable of making these high precision measurements on small samples of precious planetary materials such as those returned by human or robotic exploration. Here we present a new method for performing high precision δ37Cl measurements using the modified Middleton ion source of an existing accelerator mass spectrometer. For samples with as little as 1 μg Cl–the equivalent of 2–4 mm3 of a typical lunar rock sample–the average cathode accuracy is ∼1‰. Cathode reproducibility is typically ∼1‰ (2σ) for samples with at least 10 μg of Cl, increasing to ∼3–6‰ for aliquots with ∼1–2 μg Cl, similar to published SIMS results and sufficient to study astromaterials from the Moon, Mars, or 4 Vesta, which have tens of ‰ observed variations.

Tyler S. Anderson↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning with knowledge constraints for process optimization of open-air perovskite solar cell manufacturing

Perovskite photovoltaics (PV) have achieved rapid development in the past decade in terms of power conversion efficiency of small-area lab-scale devices; however, successful commercialization still requires further development of low-cost, scalable, and high-throughput manufacturing techniques. One of the critical challenges of developing a new fabrication technique is the high-dimensional parameter space for optimization, but machine learning (ML) can readily be used to accelerate perovskite PV scaling. Herein, we present an ML-guided framework of sequential learning for manufacturing process optimization. We apply our methodology to the Rapid Spray Plasma Processing (RSPP) technique for perovskite thin films in ambient conditions. With a limited experimental budget of screening 100 process conditions, we demonstrated an efficiency improvement to 18.5% as the best-in-our-lab device fabricated by RSPP, and we also experimentally found 10 unique process conditions to produce the top-performing devices of more than 17% efficiency, which is 5 times higher rate of success than the control experiments with pseudo-random Latin hypercube sampling. Our model is enabled by three innovations: (a) flexible knowledge transfer between experimental processes by incorporating data from prior experimental data as a probabilistic constraint; (b) incorporation of both subjective human observations and ML insights when selecting next experiments; (c) adaptive strategy of locating the region of interest using Bayesian optimization first, and then conducting local exploration for high-efficiency devices. Furthermore, in virtual benchmarking, our framework achieves faster improvements with limited experimental budgets than traditional design-of-experiments methods (e.g., one-variable-at-a-time sampling). This framework shows the capability of incorporating researchers’ domain knowledge into the ML-guided optimization loop; therefore, it has the potential to facilitate the wider adoption of ML in scaling to perovskite PV manufacturing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stable Chlorine Isotope Measurements of Astromaterials Using the Cs-Sputter Negative Ion Source of an Accelerator Mass Spectrometer

The volatile element Cl can be lost during the formation and evolution of planetary bodies, leading to fractionation of its two stable isotopes 35Cl and 37Cl. Chlorine isotope variations (reported as δ37Cl in parts per thousand (‰) relative to Standard Mean Ocean Chloride, SMOC) [1] are documented to exceed 80‰ [2] between different lunar rock samples and have been variably interpreted as the fingerprint of degassing during accretion, magma ocean, or volcanic portions of lunar history[3,4].The large intersample and intrasample variations observed by both bulk isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) and in-situ secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) methods are difficult to interpret in part because of a paucity of bulk Cl isotope measurements (Figure 1).This lack of high-precision bulk data is due to the relative rarity of IRMS laboratories capable of making these high precision measurements on small samples of precious planetary materials such as those returned by human or robotic exploration. Here we present a new method for performing high precision δ37Cl measurements using the Cs-sputter negative ion source of an existing accelerator mass spectrometer. A brief description of the methods used for this work is followed by the results of our δ37Cl measurements and a discussion of the technique’s possible applications.

Chlorine↗
NASA NTRS2014

Revised (Mixed-Effects) Estimation for Forest Burning Emissions of Gases and Smoke, Fire/Emission Factor Typology, and Potential Remote Sensing Classification of Types for Ozone and Black-Carbon Simulation

We summarize recent progress (a) in correcting biomass burning emissions factors deduced from airborne sampling of forest fire plumes, (b) in understanding the variability in reactivity of the fresh plumes sampled in ARCTAS (2008), DC3 (2012), and SEAC4RS (2013) airborne missions, and (c) in a consequent search for remotely sensed quantities that help classify forest-fire plumes. Particle properties, chemical speciation, and smoke radiative properties are related and mutually informative, as pictures below suggest (slopes of lines of same color are similar). (a) Mixed-effects (random-effects) statistical modeling provides estimates of both emission factors and a reasonable description of carbon-burned simultaneously. Different fire plumes will have very different contributions to volatile organic carbon reactivity; this may help explain differences of free NOx(both gas- and particle-phase), and also of ozone production, that have been noted for forest-fire plumes in California. Our evaluations check or correct emission factors based on sequential measurements (e.g., the Normalized Ratio Enhancement and similar methods). We stress the dangers of methods relying on emission-ratios to CO. (b) This work confirms and extends many reports of great situational variability in emissions factors. VOCs vary in OH reactivity and NOx-binding. Reasons for variability are not only fuel composition, fuel condition, etc., but are confused somewhat by rapid transformation and mixing of emissions. We use "unmixing" (distinct from mixed-effects) statistics and compare briefly to approaches like neural nets. We focus on one particularly intense fire the notorious Yosemite Rim Fire of 2013. In some samples, NOx activity was not so suppressed by binding into nitrates as in other fires. While our fire-typing is evolving and subject to debate, the carbon-burned delta(CO2+CO) estimates that arise from mixed effects models, free of confusion by background-CO2 variation, should provide a solid base for discussion. (c) We report progress using promising links we find between emissions-related "fire types" and promising features deducible from remote observations of plumes, e.g., single scatter albedo, Angstrom exponent of scattering, Angstrom exponent of absorption, (CO column density)/(aerosol optical depth).

Remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Rare Earth Element Potential in Produced and Geothermal Waters of the United States via Emergent Self-Organizing Maps

This work applies emergent self-organizing map (ESOM) techniques, a form of machine learning, in the multidimensional interpretation and prediction of rare earth element (REE) abundance in produced and geothermal waters in the United States. Visualization of the variables in the ESOM trained using the input data shows that each REE, with the exception of Eu, follows the same distribution patterns and that no single parameter appears to control their distribution. Cross-validation, using a random subsample of the starting data and only using major ions, shows that predictions are generally accurate to within an order of magnitude. Using the same approach, an abridged version of the U.S. Geological Survey Produced Waters Database, Version 2.3 (which includes both data from produced and geothermal waters) was mapped to the ESOM and predicted values were generated for samples that contained enough variables to be effectively mapped. Results show that in general, produced and geothermal waters are predicted to be enriched in REEs by an order of magnitude or more relative to seawater, with maximum predicted enrichments in excess of 1000-fold. Cartographic mapping of the resulting predictions indicates that maximum REE concentrations exceed values in seawater across the majority of geologic basins investigated and that REEs are typically spatially co-associated. The factors causing this co-association were not determined from ESOM analysis, but based on the information currently available, REE content in produced and geothermal waters is not directly controlled by lithology, reservoir temperature, or salinity.

Engle, Mark A. (ORCID:0000000152587374)↗