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NASA NTRS1978

Directional models for analysis of earth radiation budget measurements

The determination of the radiation heat flux densities at the top of the atmosphere (30 km) for spatial scales ranging from global to regional is necessary for the conversion of satellite irradiance measurements into useful earth radiation budget information. Data reduction algorithms are required which contain assumed directional characteristics of radiation emitted and scattered from the earth-atmosphere system. The directional characteristics are defined by models which express, for a given surface element at the top of the atmosphere, the exiting flux per unit solid angle for each direction out to space as a fraction of the total hemispheric flux exiting the surface element. Both longwave and shortwave directional radiation models are analyzed. It is found that the validity of the Nimbus 2-based limb darkening curves has generally been verified for the longwave data with the exception of the Antarctic snow fields where limb brightening was noticed in the earth radiation budget data.

Suttles, J. T.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CERES ERBE-like Instantaneous TOA Estimates (ES-8) in HDF (CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Edition2)

The ES-8 archival data product contains a 24-hour, single-satellite, instantaneous view of scanner fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reduced from spacecraft altitude unfiltered radiances using Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanner Inversion algorithms and the ERBE shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) Angular Distribution Models (ADMs). The ES-8 also includes the total (TOT), SW, LW, and window (WN) channel radiometric data; SW, LW, and WN unfiltered radiance values; and the ERBE scene identification for each measurement. These data are organized according to the CERES 3.3-second scan into 6.6-second records. As long as there is one valid scanner measurement within a record, the ES-8 record will be generated. The following CERES ES8 data sets are currently available: CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Edition2 CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Transient-Ops2 CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_ES8_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_ES8_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_ES8_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1997-12-27; Stop_Date=2000-03-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Temporal_Resolution=1 day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Daily - < Weekly].

SHORTWAVE FILTERED RADIANCE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CERES ERBE-like Instantaneous TOA Estimates (ES-8) in HDF (CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition2)

The ES-8 archival data product contains a 24-hour, single-satellite, instantaneous view of scanner fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reduced from spacecraft altitude unfiltered radiances using Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanner Inversion algorithms and the ERBE shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) Angular Distribution Models (ADMs). The ES-8 also includes the total (TOT), SW, LW, and window (WN) channel radiometric data; SW, LW, and WN unfiltered radiance values; and the ERBE scene identification for each measurement. These data are organized according to the CERES 3.3-second scan into 6.6-second records. As long as there is one valid scanner measurement within a record, the ES-8 record will be generated. The following CERES ES8 data sets are currently available: CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Edition2 CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Transient-Ops2 CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_ES8_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_ES8_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_ES8_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1997-12-27; Stop_Date=2005-12-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Temporal_Resolution=1 day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Daily - < Weekly].

LONGWAVE FLUX↗

NASA NTRS2023

Impact of COVID-19-related Air Traffic Reductions on the Coverage and Radiative Effects of Linear Persistent Contrails over Conterminous United States and Surrounding Oceanic Routes

The radiative effects of the large-scale air traffic slowdown during Apr and May 2020 due to the international response to the COVID-19 pandemic are estimated by comparing the coverage (CC), optical properties, and radiative forcing of persistent linear contrails over the conterminous United States and two surrounding oceanic air corridors during the slowdown period and a similar baseline period during 2018 and 2019 when air traffic was unrestricted. The detected CC during the slowdown period decreased by an area-averaged mean of 41% for the three analysis boxes. The retrieved contrail optical properties were mostly similar for both periods. Total shortwave contrail radiative forcings during the slowdown were 34 and 42% smaller for Terra and Aqua, respectively. The corresponding differences for longwave contrail radiative forcing were 33% for Terra and 40% for Aqua. To account for the impact of any changes in the atmospheric environment between baseline and slowdown periods on detected CC amounts, the contrail formation potential (CFP) was computed from reanalysis data. In addition, a filtered CFP (fCFP) was also developed to account for factors that may affect contrail formation and visibility of persistent contrails in satellite imagery. The CFP and fCFP were combined with air traffic density data to create empirical models that estimated CC during the baseline and slowdown periods and were compared to the detected CC. The models confirm that decreases in CC and radiative forcing during the slowdown period were mostly due to the reduction in air traffic, and partly due to environmental changes.

contrails↗

NASA NTRS2009

Radiative Effects of African Dust and Smoke Observed from CERES and CALIOP Data

Cloud and aerosol effects have a significant impact on the atmospheric radiation budget in the Tropical Atlantic because of the spatial and temporal extent of desert dust and smoke from biomass burning in the atmosphere. The influences of African dust and smoke aerosols on cloud radiative properties over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean were analyzed for the month of July for three years (2006-2008) using collocated data collected by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments on the CALIPSO and Aqua satellites. Aerosol layer height and type can be more accurately determined using CALIOP data, through parameters such as cloud and aerosol layer height, optical depth and depolarization ratio, than data from atmospheric imagers used in previous cloud-aerosol interaction studies. On average, clouds below 5 km had a daytime instantaneous shortwave (SW) radiative flux of 270.2 +/- 16.9 W/sq m and thin cirrus clouds had a SW radiative flux of 208.0 +/- 12.7 W/sq m. When dust aerosols interacted with clouds below 5 km, as determined from CALIPSO, the SW radiative flux decreased to 205.4 +/- 13.0 W/sq m. Similarly, smoke aerosols decreased the SW radiative flux of low clouds to a value of 240.0 +/- 16.6 W/sq m. These decreases in SW radiative flux were likely attributed to the aerosol layer height and changes in cloud microphysics. CALIOP lidar observations, which more accurately identify aerosol layer height than passive instruments, appear essential for better understanding of cloud-aerosol interactions, a major uncertainty in predicting the climate system.

Yorks, John E.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Changes in Tropical Clouds and Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Rapid Adjustment Induced by Increased Atmospheric CO2 – A Multiscale Modeling Framework Study

The radiative heating increase due to increased CO2 concentration is the primary source for the rapid adjustment of atmospheric circulation and clouds. In this study, we investigate the rapid adjustment resulting from doubling of CO2 and its physical mechanism using a multiscale modeling framework (MMF). The MMF includes an advanced higher-order turbulence closure in its cloud-resolving model component and simulates realistic shallow and deep cloud climatology and boundary layer turbulence. The rapid adjustment over the tropics is characterized by 1) reduced ascent and descent strengths over the ocean, 2) increased lower tropospheric stability (LTS) over the subsidence region, 3) shoaling of planetary boundary layers over the ocean, 4) increased deep convection over lands and shift of cloud coverage from the ocean to lands, and 5) reduced sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes over the oceanic deep convective regions. Unlike conventional general circulation models and another MMF, a reduction in the global-mean shortwave cloud radiative cooling is not simulated, due to the increase in low clouds at lower altitudes over the ocean, resulting from reduced cloud-top entrainment due to strengthened inversion. Changes in regional circulation play a key role in cloud changes and shift of cloud coverage to lands. Weaker energy transport resulting from water vapor and cloud CO2 masking effects reduces the upward motion and convective clouds in the oceanic regions. The ocean-land transports are linked to the partitioning of surface SH and LH fluxes that increases humidity over lands and enhances deep convection over the tropical lands.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

NASA NTRS2017

Aerosols at the Poles: An Aerocom Phase II Multi-Model Evaluation

Atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources reach the polar regions through long-range transport and affect the local radiation balance. Such transport is, however, poorly constrained in present-day global climate models, and few multi-model evaluations of polar anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing exist. Here we compare the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from simulations with 16 global aerosol models from the AeroCom Phase II model intercomparison project with available observations at both poles. We show that the annual mean multi-model median is representative of the observations in Arctic, but that the intermodel spread is large. We also document the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of the AOD for the individual aerosol species: black carbon (BC) from fossil fuel and biomass burning, sulfate, organic aerosols (OAs), dust, and sea-salt. For a subset of models that represent nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), we document the role of these aerosols at high latitudes. The seasonal dependence of natural and anthropogenic aerosols differs with natural aerosols peaking in winter (seasalt) and spring (dust), whereas AOD from anthropogenic aerosols peaks in late spring and summer. The models produce a median annual mean AOD of 0.07 in the Arctic (defined here as north of 60 degrees N). The models also predict a noteworthy aerosol transport to the Antarctic (south of 70 degrees S) with a resulting AOD varying between 0.01 and 0.02. The models have estimated the shortwave anthropogenic radiative forcing contributions to the direct aerosol effect (DAE) associated with BC and OA from fossil fuel and biofuel (FF), sulfate, SOAs, nitrate, and biomass burning from BC and OA emissions combined. The Arctic modelled annual mean DAE is slightly negative (-0.12 W m(exp. -2), dominated by a positive BC FF DAE in spring and a negative sulfate DAE in summer. The Antarctic DAE is governed by BC FF. We perform sensitivity experiments with one of the AeroCom models (GISS modelE) to investigate how regional emissions of BC and sulfate and the lifetime of BC influence the Arctic and Antarctic AOD. A doubling of emissions in eastern Asia results in a 33 percent increase in Arctic AOD of BC. A doubling of the BC lifetime results in a 39 percent increase in Arctic AOD of BC. However, these radical changes still fall within the AeroCom model range.

Sand, Maria↗

NASA NTRS2020

Interannual Variations of TOA Albedo over the Arctic, Antarctic and Tibetan Plateau in 2000–2019

Recent changes in Earth’s climate system have significantly affected the radiation budget and its year-to-year variations at top of the atmosphere (TOA). Observing high-latitude TOA fluxes is still challenging from space, because spatial inhomogeneity of surface/atmospheric radiative processes and spectral variability can reflect sunlight very differently. In this study we analyze the 20-year TOA flux and albedo data from CERES and MISR over the Arctic, the Antarctic, and Tibetan Plateau (TP), and found overall great consistency in the TOA albedo trend and interannual variations. The observations reveal a lagged correlation between the Arctic and subarctic albedo fluctuations. The observed year-to-year variations are further used to evaluate the reanalysis data, which exhibit substantial shortcomings in representing the polar TOA flux variability. The observed Arctic flux variations are highly correlated with cloud fraction (CF), except in the regions where CF > 90% or where the surface is covered by ice. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first five EOFs can account for ~50% of the Arctic TOA variance, whereas the correlation with climate indices suggests that Sea Ice Extent (SIE), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and 55°N–65°N cloudiness are the most influential processes in driving the TOA flux variabilities.

interannual variations↗

DOE OSTI2026

Worldwide benchmarking of cost-effective radiometers for direct and diffuse irradiance

Solar energy projects can benefit from direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) measurements during all project phases. Several commercial measurement systems for DNI and DHI are available. Sun trackers with pyranometers and pyrheliometers can provide highly accurate measurements but are often impractical in solar energy applications. For less expensive and more robust sensors, it is often unclear which accuracy can be expected under a project site's specific atmospheric conditions. We address this challenge through our dedicated experimental comparison of relevant sensor systems (rotating shadowband irradiometer [short RSI], Delta-T SPN1, EKO MS-90, PyranoCam, Sunto CaptPro, Kipp & Zonen CSD3) at up to six sites worldwide. The RSI systems (rRMSD 3 to 8.6%, DNI; 4.8 to 7.6%, DHI) and PyranoCam (rRMSD 2.6 to 5.2%, DNI; 4.4 to 5.8%, DHI) exhibit similar error metrics and are the most accurate systems in the test. Delta-T SPN1 and EKO MS-90 (rRMSD 6.8 to 15%, DNI; 10.6 to 20.1%, DHI) but especially Kipp & Zonen CSD3 and Sunto CaptPro show significant deviations (rRMSD 17.7 to 20%, DNI; 33 to 58%, DHI). We evaluate the influence of relevant atmospheric parameters on the sensors' accuracies by a rather unique measurement setup. MS-90's DNI errors depend on DNI itself, with overestimations for low reference DNI. The deviations of SPN1's DHI and DNI measurements increase sharply in situations with high circumsolar irradiance. Also CaptPro and CSD3's increased measurement errors are related to circumsolar irradiance. For RSI and PyranoCam, only moderate influences on the measurements are identified, indicating a general applicability of these instruments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Relationship Between Tropical Cloud Feedback and Climatological Bias in Clouds

Abstract Global climate model (GCM) projections of future climate are uncertain largely due to a persistent spread in cloud feedback. This is despite efforts to reduce this model uncertainty through a variety of emergent constraints (ECs); with several studies suggesting an important role for present‐day biases in clouds. Here, we use three generations of GCMs to assess the value of climatological cloud metrics for constraining uncertainty in cloud feedback. We find that shortwave cloud radiative properties across the Southern Hemisphere extratropics are most robustly correlated with tropical cloud feedback (TCF). Using this relationship in conjunction with observations, we produce an EC that yields a TCF value of 0.52 ± 0.34 W/m 2 /K, which equates to a 34% reduction in uncertainty. Thus, we show that climatological cloud properties can be used to reduce uncertainty in how clouds will respond to future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resolving Low Cloud Feedbacks Globally With E3SM High‐Res MMF: Agreement With LES but Stronger Shortwave Effects

This study investigates low cloud feedback in a warmer climate using global simulations from the High-Resolution Multi-scale Modeling Framework (HR-MMF), which explicitly simulates small-scale eddies globally. Two 5-year simulations—one with present-day sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a second with SSTs warmed uniformly by 4 K—reveal a positive global shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE = 0.3 W/m 2 /K), comparable to estimates from CMIP models. As the climate warms, significant reductions in low cloud cover occur over stratocumulus regions. This study is the first attempt to compare HR-MMF results with predictions from idealized large-eddy simulations from the CGILS intercomparison. Despite different underlying assumptions, we find qualitative agreement in SWCRE and inversion height changes between HR-MMF and CGILS predictions. This suggests reasonable credibility for the CGILS framework in predicting cloud responses under the out-of-sample conditions found in HR-MMF. However, the HR-MMF exhibits stronger SWCRE changes than predicted by CGILS. We explore potential causes for this discrepancy, examining variations in cloud-controlling factors (CCFs) and cloud conditions. Our results show a fairly homogeneous SWCRE response, with little systematic variation tied to the variations in CCFs. This reveals a dominant role for SST forcing in modulating SWCRE.

boundary-layer clouds↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dependence of tropical cyclone seeds and climate sensitivity on tropical cloud response

Projections of future tropical cyclone frequency are uncertain, ranging from a slight increase to a considerable decrease according to climate models. Estimation of how much the Earth’s surface temperature warms in response to greenhouse gas increase, quantified by effective climate sensitivity, is also uncertain. These two uncertainties have historically been studied independently as they concern different scales: One quantifies the extreme weather and the other the mean climate. Here, we show that these two uncertainties are not independent and are both influenced by the response of tropical clouds to warming. Across climate models, we show an anticorrelation between shortwave cloud radiative feedback and changes in the frequency of seed vortices, a prevalent type of tropical cyclone precursors. We further show an anticorrelation between effective climate sensitivity and tropical cyclone frequency changes, suggesting that global tropical cyclone frequency tends to decrease more substantially in models with larger temperature increase.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data and scripts associated with the manuscript evaluating the hydrologic responses of the Pacific Northwest watersheds to wildfires (v2)

This data package is associated with the publication “Evaluating Post-fire Watershed Response to Varying Burn Severity and Precipitation Regimes Using Fully-distributed and Integrated Hydrologic Models” submitted to Journal of Hydrology (Li et al. 2025). In this study, we employed the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model that couples surface flow, subsurface flow, and canopy biophysical processes, to investigate post-fire hydrologic responses in a few selected watersheds with varying burn severity.The data package contains the required input data (meteorological forcing, Leaf Area Index, wildfire burn severities, etc.) to run the model, configuration files, the Jupyter notebooks in Python to pre-process and post-process data, the figures in the manuscript, and the modeling output files. The variables include watershed-averaged evapotranspiration, watershed-averaged surface/subsurface/canopy water content, and river discharge at watershed outlet.The data package contains a file-level metadata that lists and describes all the files contained in the data package (ATS_flmd.csv), a data dictionary file that defines columns headers across all csv files contained in the data package (ATS_dd.csv), a data package level readme file (the current file), and four zipped folders.The ‘data’ folder provides data needed to run the model in .h5, .i2s, .xyz, .shp, and .exo formats. The sub-folders are for each data types. The ‘model’ folder provides input files (.xml format) and essential model outputs. Each sub-folder provides the files from each simulated watershed. The ‘notebooks’ folder provides the Jupyter notebooks (.ipynb format) for pre- and post- processing model files, and for producing the figures in the manuscript. The ‘figures’ folder provides the figures associated with manuscript in .pdf and .png formats.The ‘model’ folder and the ‘data’ folder have been split into 5GB-large pieces using the Linux command ‘split -b 5120m model.zip model.zip.’ and ‘split -b 5120m data.zip data.zip.’, respectively. They can be merged back using the Linux command ‘cat model.zip.* > model.zip’ and ‘cat data.zip.* > data.zip’, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Linking large-scale circulation patterns to low-cloud properties

Abstract. The North Pacific High (NPH) is a fundamental meteorological feature present during the boreal warm season. Marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds, which are persistent in this oceanic region, are influenced directly by the NPH. In this study, we combine 11 years of reanalysis and an unsupervised machine learning technique to examine the gamut of 850 hPa synoptic-scale circulation patterns. This approach reveals two distinguishable regimes – a dominant NPH setup and a land-falling cyclone – and in between a spectrum of large-scale patterns. We then use satellite retrievals to elucidate for the first time the explicit dependence of MBL cloud properties (namely cloud droplet number concentration, liquid water path, and shortwave cloud radiative effect – CRESW) on 850 hPa circulation patterns over the northeast Pacific Ocean. We find that CRESW spans from −146.8 to −115.5 W m−2, indicating that the range of observed MBL cloud properties must be accounted for in global and regional climate models. Our results demonstrate the value of combining reanalysis and satellite retrievals to help clarify the relationship between synoptic-scale dynamics and cloud physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Changes in Cloud Simulations from E3SM Version 1 to Version 2

This study documents clouds simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SMv2) and attempts to understand what causes the model behavior change in clouds relative to E3SMv1. This is done by analyzing the last 30-year (1985–2014) data from the 165-year historical simulations using E3SMv1 and v2 and four sensitivity tests to isolate the impact of changes in model parameter choices in its turbulence, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics parameterization (CLUBB), microphysical parameterization (MG2), and deep convection scheme (ZM), as well as model physics changes in convective triggering. It is shown that E3SMv2 significantly improves the simulation of subtropical coastal stratocumulus clouds (Sc) and clouds with optical depth larger than 3.6 over the stratocumulus to cumulus transition regimes, where Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effect (SWCRE) is also improved, and the Southern Ocean (SO) while seeing an overall slight degradation in low clouds over other tropical and subtropical oceans. The better performance in E3SMv1 over those regions is partially due to error compensation between its simulated optically thin and intermediate low clouds for which E3SMv2 actually improves simulation of optically intermediate low clouds. Sensitivity tests indicate that the changes in low clouds are primarily due to the tuning made in CLUBB. The impact of the ZM tuning is mainly on optically intermediate and thick high clouds, contributing to improved SWCRE and Longwave Cloud Radiative Effect (LWCRE). The impact of the MG2 tuning and the new convective trigger is primarily on the high latitudes and the Southern Ocean (SO). They have a relatively smaller impact on clouds than do the CLUBB and ZM tunings. This study offers additional insights about clouds simulated in E3SMv2 by utilizing multiple data sets and the COSP diagnostic tool as well as through sensitivity tests. The improved understanding will benefit the future E3SM developments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding changes in cloud simulations from E3SM version 1 to version 2

Abstract. This study documents clouds simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SMv2) and attempts to understand what causes the model behavior change in clouds relative to E3SMv1. This is done by analyzing the last 30-year (1985–2014) data from the 165-year historical simulations using E3SMv1 and v2 and four sensitivity tests to isolate the impact of changes in model parameter choices in its turbulence, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics parameterization (Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals, CLUBB); microphysical parameterization (MG2); and deep-convection scheme (ZM), as well as model physics changes in convective triggering. It is shown that E3SMv2 significantly improves the simulation of subtropical coastal stratocumulus clouds and clouds with optical depth larger than 3.6 over the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition regimes, where the shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) is also improved, and the Southern Ocean (SO) while seeing an overall slight degradation in low clouds over other tropical and subtropical oceans. The better performance in E3SMv1 over those regions is partially due to error compensation between its simulated optically thin and intermediate low clouds for which E3SMv2 actually improves simulation of optically intermediate low clouds. Sensitivity tests indicate that the changes in low clouds are primarily due to the tuning done in CLUBB. The impact of the ZM tuning is mainly on optically intermediate and thick high clouds, contributing to an improved SWCRE and longwave cloud radiative effect (LWCRE). The impact of the MG2 tuning and the new convective trigger is primarily on the high latitudes and the SO. They have a relatively smaller impact on clouds than CLUBB tuning and ZM tuning do. This study offers additional insights into clouds simulated in E3SMv2 by utilizing multiple data sets and the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) diagnostic tool as well as sensitivity tests. The improved understanding will benefit future E3SM developments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging regional mesh refinement to simulate future climate projections for California using the Simplified Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 0

Abstract. The spatial heterogeneity related to complex topography in California demands high-resolution (< 5 km) modeling, but global convection-permitting climate models are computationally too expensive to run multi-decadal simulations. We developed a 3.25 km California climate modeling framework by leveraging regional mesh refinement (CARRM) using the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s global Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) version 0. Four 5-year time periods (2015–2020, 2029–2034, 2044–2049, and 2094–2099) were simulated by nudging CARRM outside California to 1° coupled simulation of E3SMv1 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)5-8.5 future scenario. The 3.25 km grid spacing adds considerable value to the prediction of the California climate changes, including more realistic high temperatures in the Central Valley and much improved spatial distributions of precipitation and snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and coastal stratocumulus. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, CARRM simulation predicts widespread warming of 6–10 °C over most of California, a 38 % increase in statewide average 30 d winter–spring precipitation, a near-complete loss of the alpine snowpack, and a sharp reduction in shortwave cloud radiative forcing associated with marine stratocumulus by the end of the 21st century. We note a climatological wet precipitation bias for the CARRM and discuss possible reasons. We conclude that SCREAM RRM is a technically feasible and scientifically valid tool for climate simulations in regions of interest, providing an excellent bridge to global convection-permitting simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗