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At least 397 records · Page 22

Using Temporal Deep Learning Models to Estimate Daily Snow Water Equivalent Over the Rocky Mountains

Abstract In this study we construct and compare three different deep learning (DL) models for estimating daily snow water equivalent (SWE) from high‐resolution gridded meteorological fields over the Rocky Mountain region. To train the DL models, Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) station‐based SWE observations are used as the prediction target. All DL models produce higher median Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values than a conceptual SWE model and interpolated gridded data sets, although mean squared errors also tend to be higher. Sensitivity of the SWE prediction to the model's input variables is analyzed using an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) method, yielding insight into the physical relationships learned by the models. This method reveals the dominant role precipitation and temperature play in snowpack dynamics. In applying our models to estimate SWE throughout the Rocky Mountains, an extrapolation problem arises since the statistical properties of SWE (e.g., annual maximum) and geographical properties of individual grid points (e.g., elevation) differ from the training data. This problem is solved by normalizing the SWE with its historical maximum value to alleviate extrapolation for all tested DL models. Our work shows that the DL models are promising tools for estimating SWE, and sufficiently capture relevant physical relationships to make them useful for spatial and temporal extrapolation of SWE values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining Dense Data Usage near the Regions with Severe Storms in All-Sky Microwave Radiance Data Assimilation and Impacts on GEOS Hurricane Analyses

Many numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers assimilate radiances affected by clouds and precipitation from microwave sensors, with the expectation that these data can provide critical constraints on meteorological parameters in dynamically sensitive regions to make significant impacts on forecast accuracy for precipitation. The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center assimilates all-sky microwave radiance data from various microwave sensors such as all-sky GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiance in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS), which includes the GEOS atmospheric model, the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) atmospheric analysis system, and the Goddard Aerosol Assimilation System (GAAS). So far, most of NWP centers apply same large data thinning distances, that are used in clear-sky radiance data to avoid correlated observation errors, to all-sky microwave radiance data. For example, NASA GMAO is applying 145 km thinning distances for most of satellite radiance data including microwave radiance data in which all-sky approach is implemented. Even with these coarse observation data usage in all-sky assimilation approach, noticeable positive impacts from all-sky microwave data on hurricane track forecasts were identified in GEOS-5 system. The motivation of this study is based on the dynamic thinning distance method developed in our all-sky framework to use of denser data in cloudy and precipitating regions due to relatively small spatial correlations of observation errors. To investigate the benefits of all-sky microwave radiance on hurricane forecasts, several hurricane cases selected between 2016-2017 are examined. The dynamic thinning distance method is utilized in our all-sky approach to understand the sources and mechanisms to explain the benefits of all-sky microwave radiance data from various microwave radiance sensors like Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU-A), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and GMI on GEOS-5 analyses and forecasts of various hurricanes.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗

A Block-Structured Adaptive Mesh Framework to Solve Radiation Transfer Equation in Irregular Embedded Geometries

Radiation transport arises in various scientific, industrial, and medical fields, and understanding its effect in applications is needed to make accurate predictions, safety assessments and performance optimizations. Solving the Radiation Transport Equation (RTE) is challenging due to its integro-differential nature, which involves both differential and integral terms. The differential term describes the change in radiation intensity due to absorption and emission, while the integral term accounts for scattering. The accurate modeling of radiation is further complicated in many applications due to the complex, irregular geometries. Various methods exist for solving the RTE, including the zonal, Monte Carlo, spherical harmonics, discrete ordinates, and finite volume methods. Traditional mesh-based approaches, which rely on structured or unstructured meshes, struggle with irregular geometries due to: a) the difficulty of conforming structured grids to irregular domains, b) challenges in enforcing boundary conditions correctly, and c) the additional computational cost of unstructured mesh methods. This work presents a second-order accurate method for solving the RTE in irregular geometries. The radiation intensity is discretized using the finite-volume method in both spatial and angular directions on regular Cartesian grid blocks. Leveraging the block-structured adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) framework provided by AMReX, our method refines the grid locally to reduce spatial discretization error, ensuring a converged numerical solution while minimizing computational costs elsewhere. A two-stage deferred correction approach is employed: First, a first-order discretization on grid blocks is solved using an algebraic multigrid method in HYPRE. Second, a correction term is applied explicitly to achieve second-order accuracy. The correction term is calculated by approximating the radiation flux on cell faces using a Total Variation Diminishing (TVD) scheme. This approach ensures quick convergence of the multigrid method while preserving higher-order accuracy of the numerical solution. Irregular geometries are resolved as embedded boundaries (EB), resulting in both cut cells and regular cells. In cut cells, we modify the fluxes using face fractions and incorporate additional contributions from EB boundary conditions. To ensure higher-order convergence near the EB interface, the correction term is modified by interpolating the radiation intensity to fictitious ghost points. The implementation takes advantage of modern supercomputers by leveraging AMReX’sMPI/X parallelization strategy where X can be MPI or a GPU accelerator including CUDA, HIP and DPC++. We validate our solver using classical test cases, both with and without EB, demonstrating accuracy and efficiency. Additionally, we analyze the impact of adaptive mesh refinement on solution accuracy and computational cost, highlighting the advantages of our approach for high-resolution radiation transport simulations.

computational fluid dynamics (CFD)↗

The Aggregate Description of Semi-Arid Vegetation with Precipitation-Generated Soil Moisture Heterogeneity

Meteorological measurements in the Walnut Gulch catchment in Arizona were used to synthesize a distributed, hourly-average time series of data across a 26.9 by 12.5 km area with a grid resolution of 480 m for a continuous 18-month period which included two seasons of monsoonal rainfall. Coupled surface-atmosphere model runs established the acceptability (for modelling purposes) of assuming uniformity in all meteorological variables other than rainfall. Rainfall was interpolated onto the grid from an array of 82 recording rain gauges. These meteorological data were used as forcing variables for an equivalent array of stand-alone Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) models to describe the evolution of soil moisture and surface energy fluxes in response to the prevalent, heterogeneous pattern of convective precipitation. The calculated area-average behaviour was compared with that given by a single aggregate BATS simulation forced with area-average meteorological data. Heterogeneous rainfall gives rise to significant but partly compensating differences in the transpiration and the intercepted rainfall components of total evaporation during rain storms. However, the calculated area-average surface energy fluxes given by the two simulations in rain-free conditions with strong heterogeneity in soil moisture were always close to identical, a result which is independent of whether default or site-specific vegetation and soil parameters were used. Because the spatial variability in soil moisture throughout the catchment has the same order of magnitude as the amount of rain failing in a typical convective storm (commonly 10% of the vegetation's root zone saturation) in a semi-arid environment, non-linearitv in the relationship between transpiration and the soil moisture available to the vegetation has limited influence on area-average surface fluxes.

White, Cary B.↗

Generic Sensor Modeling Using Pulse Method

Recent development of high spatial resolution satellites such as IKONOS, Quickbird and Orbview enable observation of the Earth's surface with sub-meter resolution. Compared to the 30 meter resolution of Landsat 5 TM, the amount of information in the output image was dramatically increased. In this era of high spatial resolution, the estimation of spatial quality of images is gaining attention. Historically, the Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) concept has been used to estimate an imaging system's spatial quality. Sometimes classified by target shapes, various methods were developed in laboratory environment utilizing sinusoidal inputs, periodic bar patterns and narrow slits. On-orbit sensor MTF estimation was performed on 30-meter GSD Landsat4 Thematic Mapper (TM) data from the bridge pulse target as a pulse input . Because of a high resolution sensor s small Ground Sampling Distance (GSD), reasonably sized man-made edge, pulse, and impulse targets can be deployed on a uniform grassy area with accurate control of ground targets using tarps and convex mirrors. All the previous work cited calculated MTF without testing the MTF estimator's performance. In previous report, a numerical generic sensor model had been developed to simulate and improve the performance of on-orbit MTF estimating techniques. Results from the previous sensor modeling report that have been incorporated into standard MTF estimation work include Fermi edge detection and the newly developed 4th order modified Savitzky-Golay (MSG) interpolation technique. Noise sensitivity had been studied by performing simulations on known noise sources and a sensor model. Extensive investigation was done to characterize multi-resolution ground noise. Finally, angle simulation was tested by using synthetic pulse targets with angles from 2 to 15 degrees, several brightness levels, and different noise levels from both ground targets and imaging system. As a continuing research activity using the developed sensor model, this report was dedicated to MTF estimation via pulse input method characterization using the Fermi edge detection and 4th order MSG interpolation method. The relationship between pulse width and MTF value at Nyquist was studied including error detection and correction schemes. Pulse target angle sensitivity was studied by using synthetic targets angled from 2 to 12 degrees. In this report, from the ground and system noise simulation, a minimum SNR value was suggested for a stable MTF value at Nyquist for the pulse method. Target width error detection and adjustment technique based on a smooth transition of MTF profile is presented, which is specifically applicable only to the pulse method with 3 pixel wide targets.

Helder, Dennis L.↗

Method Improvements in Thermal Analysis of Mach 10 Leading Edges

Several improvements have recently been made in the thermal analysis methods for leading edges of a hypersonic vehicle. The leading edges of this vehicle undergo exceptionally high heat loads that incorporate extreme spatial gradients as well as severe transients. Due to the varying flight conditions, complex geometry, and need for thermal loads at many points along the trajectory, full computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of the aeroheating; loads is not feasible. Thus, engineering methods must be used to determine the aeroheating on the vehicle surfaces, and that must be utilized in the thermal analysis. Over the last year, the thermal analysis of a hypersonic vehicle has been enhanced in several ways. Two different engineering codes are used to predict aeroheating loads: one over the curve near the stagnation point, and the other on flat surfaces downstream of the leading edge. These two are matched together at the intersection point using a method that allows closer approximation of CFD results. User-developed FORTRAN, which is part of the thermal solver PATRAN Thermal, is used to accomplish this. The customizable FORTRAN code also allows use of many different time- and space-dependent factors, interpolation of the heat load in time and space, and inclusion of both highly swept and unswept grid structures. This FORTRAN is available to other PATRAN users who may want to accomplish a similar objective in analysis. Flux, rather than convective coefficient, is used to define heat loads, which allows more accurate analysis as well as better application of margins. Improvements have also been made in more efficient utilization of imported CAD geometry, by creating faces on solids to facilitate load application.

Amundsen, Ruth M.↗

Non-intrusive reduced-order modeling for dynamical systems with spatially localized features

This work presents a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling framework for dynamical systems with spatially localized features characterized by slow singular value decay. The proposed approach builds upon two existing methodologies for reduced and full-order non-intrusive modeling, namely Operator Inference (OpInf) and sparse Full-Order Model (sFOM) inference. We decompose the domain into two complementary subdomains that exhibit fast and slow singular value decay. The dynamics of the subdomain exhibiting slow singular value decay are learned with sFOM while the dynamics with intrinsically low dimensionality on the complementary subdomain are learned with OpInf. The resulting, coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation leverages the computational efficiency of OpInf and the high resolution of sFOM, and thus enables fast non-intrusive predictions for conditions beyond those sampled in the training data set. A novel regularization technique with a closed-form solution based on the Gershgorin disk theorem is introduced to promote stable sFOM and OpInf models. We also provide a data-driven indicator for subdomain selection and ensure solution smoothness over the interface via a post-processing interpolation step. We evaluate the efficiency of the approach in terms of offline and online speedup through a quantitative, parametric computational cost analysis. We demonstrate the coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation for two test cases: a one-dimensional Burgers’ model for which accurate predictions beyond the span of the training snapshots are presented, and a two-dimensional parametric model for the Pine Island Glacier ice thickness dynamics, for which the OpInf-sFOM model achieves an average prediction error on the order of 1% with an online speedup factor of approximately 8$\times$ compared to the numerical simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office?s GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). The hindcasts are initialized every December from 1959 to 2010 following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from the atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) generated using the GEOS-5 atmospheric model. The forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble mean is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but forced with observed CO2. The results show that initialization acts to increase the forecast skill of Northern Atlantic SST compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) index is predictable up to a 5-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the Northern Atlantic. While the skill measured by Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS) shows 50% improvement up to 10-year lead forecast over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, however, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre, due in part to the fact that the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region appears to be unrealistic. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Ham, Yoo-Geun↗

Seasonal Variability of Saturn's Tropospheric Temperatures, Winds and Para-H2 from Cassini Far-IR Spectroscopy

Far-IR 16-1000 micrometer spectra of Saturn's hydrogen-helium continuum measured by Cassini's Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) are inverted to construct a near-continuous record of upper tropospheric (70-700 mbar) temperatures and para-H2 fraction as a function of latitude, pressure and time for a third of a saturnian year (2004-2014, from northern winter to northern spring). The thermal field reveals evidence of reversing summertime asymmetries superimposed onto the belt/zone structure. The temperature structure is almost symmetric about the equator by 2014, with seasonal lag times that increase with depth and are qualitatively consistent with radiative climate models. Localised heating of the tropospheric hazes (100-250 mbar) create a distinct perturbation to the temperature profile that shifts in magnitude and location, declining in the autumn hemisphere and growing in the spring. Changes in the para-H2 (f(sub p)) distribution are subtle, with a 0.02-0.03 rise over the spring hemisphere (200-500 mbar) perturbed by (i) low-f(sub p) air advected by both the springtime storm of 2010 and equatorial upwelling; and (ii) subsidence of high-f(sub p) air at northern high latitudes, responsible for a developing north-south asymmetry in f(sub p). Conversely, the shifting asymmetry in the para-H2 disequilibrium primarily reflects the changing temperature structure (and hence the equilibrium distribution of f(sub p)), rather than actual changes in f(sub p) induced by chemical conversion or transport. CIRS results interpolated to the same point in the seasonal cycle as re-analysed Voyager-1 observations (early northern spring) show qualitative consistency from year to year (i.e., the same tropospheric asymmetries in temperature and f(sub p)), with the exception of the tropical tropopause near the equatorial zones and belts, where downward propagation of a cool temperature anomaly associated with Saturn's stratospheric oscillation could potentially perturb tropopause temperatures, para-H2 and winds. Quantitative differences between the Cassini and Voyager epochs suggest that the oscillation is not in phase with the seasonal cycle at these tropospheric depths (i.e., it should be described as quasi-periodic rather than 'semi annual'). Variability in the zonal wind field derived from latitudinal thermal gradients is small (less than 10 m/s per scale height near the tropopause) and mostly affects the broad retrograde jets, with the notable exception of large variability on the northern flank of the equatorial jet. The meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient, and hence the 'staircase of PV' associated with spatial variations in the vigour of vertical mixing, has varied over the course of the mission but maintained its overall shape. PV gradients in latitude and altitude are used to estimate the atmospheric refractive index for the propagation of stationary planetary (Rossby) waves, predicting that such wave activity would be confined to regions of real refractivity (tropical regions plus bands at 35-45 in both hemispheres). The penetration depth of these regions into the upper troposphere is temporally variable (potentially associated with stratification changes), whereas the latitudinal structure is largely unchanged over time (associated with the zonal jet system).

Fletcher, Leigh N.↗

Impacts of aerosol size-dependent below-cloud scavenging on tropospheric aerosol in the NASA GEOS model

Cloud scavenging is the major sink for a suite of tropospheric aerosols, and thus largely affects the global distribution and lifetime of aerosols as well as the formation of clouds. Simplified model parameterizations of cloud scavenging of aerosols substantially contribute to large uncertainties in the simulated aerosol burdens, spatial distributions, lifetimes, as well as aerosol radiative forcing. Here we evaluate the wet scavenging scheme in the current NASA GEOS model, develop more physically-based parameterizations of below-cloud scavenging, and assess the impacts of the new scavenging parameterizations on the GEOS simulations of aerosols. The current below-cloud scavenging (BCS; washout) scheme uses a first-order removal with a constant scavenging coefficient. We replaced the current scheme with a size-dependent parameterization of Croft et al.(Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2009; hereafter referred to as C09). The C09 BCS parameterizations calculate aerosol below-cloud scavenging coefficients based on a size-dependent collision efficiency between aerosol particles and raindrops (or snow crystals). A look-up table of compiled collision efficiencies provides values for sixty aerosol sizes and nine rain flux rates. Snow-aerosol collision efficiencies are a function of the sixty aerosol sizes only. We assume a log-normal size distribution for aerosols (bulk) in GOCART. The collision efficiencies are then calculated online using a bilinear interpolation from the look-up table for the given aerosol sizes and precipitation flux rates in the model.

aerosols↗

On Utilization of NEXRAD Scan Strategy Information to Infer Discrepancies Associated With Radar and Rain Gauge Surface Volumetric Rainfall Accumulations

To evaluate the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) monthly Ground Validation (GV) rain map, 42 quality controlled tipping bucket rain gauge data (1 minute interpolated rain rates) were utilized. We have compared the gauge data to the surface volumetric rainfall accumulation of NEXRAD reflectivity field, (converting to rain rates using a 0.5 dB resolution smooth Z-R table). The comparison was carried out from data collected at Melbourne, Florida during the month of July 98. GV operational level 3 (L3 monthly) accumulation algorithm was used to obtain surface volumetric accumulations for the radar. The gauge records were accumulated using the 1 minute interpolated rain rates while the radar Volume Scan (VOS) intervals remain less than or equal to 75 minutes. The correlation coefficient for the radar and gauge totals for the monthly time-scale remain at 0.93, however, a large difference was noted between the gauge and radar derived rain accumulation when the radar data interval is either 9 minute, or 10 minute. This difference in radar and gauge accumulation is being explained in terms of the radar scan strategy information. The discrepancy in terms of the Volume Coverage Pattern (VCP) of the NEXRAD is being reported where VCP mode is ascertained using the radar tilt angle information. Hourly radar and gauge accumulations have been computed using the present operational L3 method supplemented with a threshold period of +/- 5 minutes (based on a sensitivity analysis). These radar and gauge accumulations are subsequently improved using a radar hourly scan weighting factor (taking ratio of the radar scan frequency within a time bin to the 7436 total radar scans for the month). This GV procedure is further being improved by introducing a spatial smoothing method to yield reasonable bulk radar to gauge ratio for the hourly and daily scales.

Roy, Biswadev↗

Computational Aeroacoustic Analysis System Development

Many industrial and commercial products operate in a dynamic flow environment and the aerodynamically generated noise has become a very important factor in the design of these products. In light of the importance in characterizing this dynamic environment, Rocketdyne has initiated a multiyear effort to develop an advanced general-purpose Computational Aeroacoustic Analysis System (CAAS) to address these issues. This system will provide a high fidelity predictive capability for aeroacoustic design and analysis. The numerical platform is able to provide high temporal and spatial accuracy that is required for aeroacoustic calculations through the development of a high order spectral element numerical algorithm. The analysis system is integrated with well-established CAE tools, such as a graphical user interface (GUI) through PATRAN, to provide cost-effective access to all of the necessary tools. These include preprocessing (geometry import, grid generation and boundary condition specification), code set up (problem specification, user parameter definition, etc.), and postprocessing. The purpose of the present paper is to assess the feasibility of such a system and to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the numerical algorithm through numerical examples. Computations of vortex shedding noise were carried out in the context of a two-dimensional low Mach number turbulent flow past a square cylinder. The computational aeroacoustic approach that is used in CAAS relies on coupling a base flow solver to the acoustic solver throughout a computational cycle. The unsteady fluid motion, which is responsible for both the generation and propagation of acoustic waves, is calculated using a high order flow solver. The results of the flow field are then passed to the acoustic solver through an interpolator to map the field values into the acoustic grid. The acoustic field, which is governed by the linearized Euler equations, is then calculated using the flow results computed from the flow solver.

Hadid, A.↗

Scalable Matrix-Free Adaptive Product-Convolution Approximation for Locally Translation-Invariant Operators

We present an adaptive grid matrix-free operator approximation scheme based on a "product-convolution" interpolation of convolution operators. This scheme is appropriate for operators that are locally translation-invariant, even if these operators are high rank or full rank. Such operators arise in Schur complement methods for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), as Hessians in PDE-constrained optimization and inverse problems, as integral operators, as covariance operators, and as Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps. Constructing the approximation requires computing the impulse responses of the operator to point sources centered on nodes in an adaptively refined grid of sample points. A randomized a posteriori error estimator drives the adaptivity. Once constructed, the approximation can be efficiently applied to vectors using the fast Fourier transform. The approximation can be efficiently converted to hierarchical matrix (H-matrix) format, then inverted or factorized using scalable H-matrix arithmetic. The quality of the approximation degrades gracefully as fewer sample points are used, allowing cheap lower quality approximations to be used as preconditioners. Furthermore, this yields an automated method to construct preconditioners for locally translation-invariant Schur complements. We directly address issues related to boundaries and prove that our scheme eliminates boundary artifacts. We test the scheme on a spatially varying blurring kernel, on the nonlocal component of an interface Schur complement for the Poisson operator, and on the data misfit Hessian for an advection dominated advection-diffusion inverse problem. Numerical results show that the scheme outperforms existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated Bosch Process System Models for In-Situ Oxygen and Carbon Production

In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) technology is a vital component to NASA’s mission of a sustainable presence on the Moon and Mars. Local resources can be leveraged to reduce resupply frequency and mass. Elements of the Bosch process, combined with the carbothermal reduction process, can produce oxygen on the lunar surface with minimal consumables. The Bosch process can also produce oxygen on the Martian surface by using the CO 2 -rich environment. Between both systems, adsorption pump, solar thermal energy, carbon formation reactor, and water recovery subsystems are modeled and integrated to create a functional model in MATLAB software. The model is used to simulate performance of the system and reduce mass, power, and volume requirements. This integrated system model provides a tool to scale ISRU technologies for oxygen and carbon production. The MATLAB model is created by developing a system of independent subsystem models that are solved for their quasi-steady state values which can be integrated with respect to time to determine the change in current states. A flexible time stepping method is used to ensure a high level of accuracy during periods of rapid change while still making use of a simple explicit integration method. The flexible time step is calculated for each independent subsystem and the minimum value from those is used as the overall time step. A flexible time step is calculated by dividing a resolution value, or the maximum change per time step, by the variables current rate of change. The maximum value from all points in space is used for subsystem models that contain multiple values. The process is done for every variable that is being monitored in each subsystem and the global minimum is used as that iteration’s timestep. Several assumptions used in the MATLAB model for fluid flow dynamics, such as 1-D gas flow through the sorption pump, are supported by modeling in Ansys Fluent software. The Lunar oxygen production system is outlined in Fig. 1. The carbothermal reduction subsystem uses solar energy to heat a mixture of lunar regolith and carbon powder to produce carbon monoxide. To begin, the carbon monoxide feeds to the modified Bosch subsystem along with hydrogen gas. The reactants then enter the carbon formation reactor where water and carbon powder are produced. Solar thermal energy is used to add energy to the reactor, but waste heat from the carbothermal process is another potential heat source. The water is collected and electrolyzed to produce hydrogen which reenters the Bosch subsystem, and the oxygen is stored for downstream use. The carbon powder is collected and feeds back into the carbothermal subsystem. The Martian oxygen production system uses the full Bosch process and is outlined in Fig 2. A CO 2 adsorption pump thermally cycles to scrub and pressurize CO 2 from the environment. Along with an initial supply of hydrogen, the reactants enter the Reverse Water Gas Shift Reactor (RWGSR) which produces carbon monoxide and water. Carbon monoxide and unreacted hydrogen enter the carbon formation reactor to produce water and carbon powder. The water is collected from both reactors and electrolyzed to reintroduce hydrogen and store oxygen for propellant production or life support. Carbon is removed from the carbon formation reactor and stored. The adsorption pump utilizes rapid cycle temperature swings within a stack of zeolite coated surfaces. The subsystem model solves 1-D quasi-steady conservation laws of the quasi-steady form, shown in Eq. 1, for the gas stream and heat exchange liquid to predict performance parameters such as breakthrough capacity and optimum cycle time. The source term S is used to capture interactions between the fluid flows and the sorbent. A quasi-steady-state scheme is used where no time derivatives appear in the governing equations, except for those in the source terms. This results in an autonomous system, where ∂F/∂x = ƒ(F). The fluxes F are provided at the inlet, and an explicit method is used to solve for the spatial distribution of F. The heat and mass flows to the sorbent are then extracted from the source terms. These flows are numerically integrated to produce a 1-D solution for the system’s state as a function of both time and space. The body of the adsorption pump is separated into two semi-independent models: the heat exchanger fluid flow and gas flow through the zeolite coated surfaces. Both models are solved using the above-described method to find a 1-D solution as a function of space and interact only once a timestep is taken. The interaction point is the sorbent through which all heat transfer between the two models must occur. Sorbent mass adsorption is calculated using the Lagergren model, shown in Eq. 2, where the transfer coefficient, λ D , is found by solving a system of nondimensionalized equations derived by using the heat and mass transfer analogy for transport phenomena. Using Grade 544 Type 13X zeolite as the sorbent material, the equilibrium concentration, θ eq , is calculated using the k-site Langmuir isotherm and fit parameters. Additionally, the enthalpy of adsorption used in the model is computed by interpolation of available data [1]. The subsystem model was validated using the Rapid Cycle Temperature Swing Adsorption (RC-TSA) pump. The solar thermal energy subsystem focuses on a solar concentrator concept with a heat exchanger to heat the reactants before entering the carbon formation reactor. The subsystem model assumes a fixed solar flux and reflector efficiency to calculate the reactant temperature given the incoming temperature, pressure, and exchanger geometry. The receiver is a custom manufactured series of copper blocks with serpentine channels to increase its surface area and the residence time of the reactants to heat up to 550 °C. The subsystem model was validated using a heat exchanger developed at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The solar thermal energy subsystem focuses on a solar concentrator concept with a heat exchanger to heat the reactants before entering the carbon formation reactor. The subsystem model assumes a fixed solar flux and reflector efficiency to calculate the reactant temperature given the incoming temperature, pressure, and exchanger geometry. The receiver is a custom manufactured series of copper blocks with serpentine channels to increase its surface area and the residence time of the reactants to heat up to 550 °C. The subsystem model was validated using a heat exchanger developed at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC).

In situ Resource Utilization↗

Utilizing Multiple Datasets for Snow Cover Mapping

Snow-cover maps generated from surface data are based on direct measurements, however they are prone to interpolation errors where climate stations are sparsely distributed. Snow cover is clearly discernable using satellite-attained optical data because of the high albedo of snow, yet the surface is often obscured by cloud cover. Passive microwave (PM) data is unaffected by clouds, however, the snow-cover signature is significantly affected by melting snow and the microwaves may be transparent to thin snow (less than 3cm). Both optical and microwave sensors have problems discerning snow beneath forest canopies. This paper describes a method that combines ground and satellite data to produce a Multiple-Dataset Snow-Cover Product (MDSCP). Comparisons with current snow-cover products show that the MDSCP draws together the advantages of each of its component products while minimizing their potential errors. Improved estimates of the snow-covered area are derived through the addition of two snow-cover classes ("thin or patchy" and "high elevation" snow cover) and from the analysis of the climate station data within each class. The compatibility of this method for use with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, which will be available in 2000, is also discussed. With the assimilation of these data, the resolution of the MDSCP would be improved both spatially and temporally and the analysis would become completely automated.

Tait, Andrew B.↗

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office's (GMAO's) GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multivariate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO's atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 percent improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the sub-polar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Decadal Prediction↗

Growth of organized flow coherent motions within a single-stream shear layer: 4D-PTV measurements

Abstract This study investigates the evolution of a single-stream shear layer (SSSL) originating from a wall boundary layer past a backward-facing step. Utilizing a time-resolved 3D-Particle Tracking Velocimetry (4D-PTV) technique, we track the trajectories of fluorescent particles to gain insight into the flow characteristics of the SSSL. A compact water tunnel facility ( $$\textrm{Re}_\tau =1\,240$$ Re τ = 1 240 ) is fabricated to obtain an SSSL with a perpendicular slow entrainment stream past the separation edge. A hybrid interpolation approach that combines ensemble binning and Gaussian weighting is implemented to derive minimally filtered mean and instantaneous lower- and higher-order flow field parameters. Spanwise-dominant coherent motion accompanied by finer flow scales is observed to grow due to flow entrainment through “nibbling” actions of small-scale vortices, “engulfing” by large-scale vortices, and vortex pairing events. Furthermore, the non-zero-speed stream edge grows relatively faster than the zero-speed stream edge, showing a strong asymmetry in mixing composition across a mixing layer. The SSSL reaches self-similarity at a streamwise distance of $$\approx 55\,\theta _{0}$$ ≈ 55 θ 0 , where $$\theta _0$$ θ 0 is the initial momentum thickness from the separation edge, i.e., considerably shorter than reported in previous studies. A literature comparison of growth rate parameters raises intriguing questions regarding a potential inclusive growth scaling unifying the free shear layers. A turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget analysis reveals a negative production region immediately downstream of the separation edge attributed to a large positive streamwise gradient of streamwise velocity. In the self-similar region, the phase-averaged flow mapping demonstrates a larger concentration of turbulence production rate around the outer edges of spanwise vortices, specifically at the intersection of braids and vortices. Furthermore, a spatial separation exists in the regions of peak production and dissipation rates within the vortex core region favoring dissipation. The braids exhibit a larger concentration of turbulence diffusion rates, indicating their function as a conduit for exchanging turbulence between neighboring coherent motions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Analysis of Inter-Moss Loops in the Solar Region with IRIS and SDO AIA: Automatic Event Detection and Characterization

The Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS), launched in the summer of 2013, is designed specifically to observe and investigate the transition region and adjacent layers of the solar atmosphere, obtaining images in high spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution. Our particular work is focused on the evolution of inter-moss loops, which have been detected in the lower corona by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and the High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi- C), but are known to have foot points below the transition region. With the high-resolution capabilities of IRIS and its Si IV pass band, which measures activity in the upper chromosphere, we can study these magnetic loops in detail and compare their characteristic length and time scales to those obtained from several AIA image sets, particularly the 171, 193, and 211 pass bands. By comparing the results between these four data sets, one can potentially establish a measure of the ionization equilibrium for the location in question. To explore this idea, we found a large, sit-and-stare observation within the IRIS database that fit our specifications. This data set contained a number of well-defined inter-moss loops (by visual inspection) with a cadence less than or equal to that of AIA (approximately 12 seconds). This particular data set was recorded on October 23, 2013 at 07:09:30, lasting for 3219 seconds with a field of view of 120.6 by 128.1 arcseconds, centered on -53.9 by 59.1 arcseconds from disk center. For ease of comparison, the AIA data has been interpolated to match the IRIS cadence and resolution. In the main portion of the poster, we demonstrate the detection of events, the information collected, and the immediate results to the right, showing the progress of an event with green as the start, blue as the peak, and red as the end. Below here, we demonstrate how pixels are combined to form groups. The 3D results are shown to the right.

event detection↗