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At least 397 records · Page 22

Where Are White Roofs More Effective in Cooling the Surface?

Solar reflective roofs (also called white or cool roofs) are a common heat mitigation strategy. By reflecting more sunlight than regular roofs, cool roofs experience lower surface temperatures and produce less heating of the surrounding air. The effectiveness of cool roofs, quantified by the surface temperature difference between cool roofs and regular roofs ??????, is known to vary spatially. A common perception is that ?????? is controlled by solar radiation that reaches the roof surface. Here we use an Earth System Model and a surface energy balance model to show that the spatial variability of ??????, when normalized by the albedo difference between cool roofs and regular roofs (????), is in fact more controlled by an energy distribution factor that encodes the efficiencies of surface energy balance components in dissipating heat. Our results suggest that painting the roof white is more effective in reducing the roof surface temperature when the roof has less water holding capacity and smaller thermal admittance and is located in places with more solar radiation, less precipitation, and lower wind speed.

Wang, Linying↗

Characterizing uncertainties in ground “truth” of precipitation over complex terrain through high-resolution numerical modeling

Ground observation of precipitation over complex terrain is subject to large uncertainties due to inadequate sampling. This study explores a method that combines limited gauge data and a high-resolution numerical simulation to quantify the precipitation uncertainties in central Himalaya. Specifically, the Coefficient of spatial Variability (CV) of precipitation and the minimum Number of Required Stations (NRS) to obtain areal-mean precipitation ground truth values within a 0.25-degree area are investigated using fine-scale meteorological simulation at 1.5 km grid spacing. Evaluation over a densely-gauged area demonstrates comparable CV and NRS values between station observations and simulations. The simulated CV and NRS values in a larger area show a strong and positive dependence on each other and an expected positive (negative) correlation with topographic complexity (temporal scale). The proposed method sheds lights on evaluating precipitation products and holds promise for informing the layout of rain gauge networks in complex terrain.

Ouyang, Lin↗

Urbanization Amplifies Nighttime Heat Stress on Warmer Days Over the US

Abstract The impact of heat on human health is well‐recognized, with excess heat stress in urban areas (urban heat stress intensity, UHSI) adversely affecting rapidly growing urban populations. However, the physical associations of UHSI with urban heat island (UHI), urban‐induced change in moisture (UQI) and background temperature are not well understood. Multi‐year convection‐permitting simulations over the US show that UHI effect peaks during nighttime (2–5°C) but maximum UQI occurs in daytime (0.01–2 g kg −1 ), resulting in competing effects on UHSI. UHI dynamics dominate the diurnal variations in UHSI with intensified urban‐induced human discomfort during nighttime (3–5 hr day − 1 ). UHSI is very sensitive to the background temperature, especially over the southeastern US, with distinct nightime UHSI amplification of ∼0.5 hr day −1 degree − 1 rise in the background temperature. Spatial variability of UHSI is also dominated by the UHI with possible constrains from background moisture availability.

Sarangi, Chandan↗

Spectral Element Modeling of Acoustic to Seismic Coupling Over Topography

Acoustic waves in the atmosphere are commonly recorded on seismometers as they couple into the ground. These signals, here called ground coupled airwaves, are not commonly considered in numerical modeling of infrasound propagation, which often assumes a rigid unmeshed boundary. Starting from an analytically-tractable spherical wave model, we analyze how the coupling of an acoustic wave into a planar elastic halfspace changes over a wide range of scenarios. We use energy admittance to quantify acoustic to seismic coupling over both a planar elastic halfspace and meshed topography. Our spectral element and analytic calculations have different maxima as a function of incidence angle, with very high admittance values for near-vertical incidence (maximum ≈78%). Energy admittance calculations at shallow incidence angles are much smaller (less than 1%). In simulations over the complex topography of Sakurajima Volcano, we attribute the variable spatial pattern of energy admittance to changes in earth parameters between each model. The observed pressure difference over the simulated 15 km region appears to be < 2%. While this value is relatively small, the cumulative addition over 100s of km and multiple acoustic bounce points may be significant. Acoustic to seismic coupling along the propagation path may bias long distance yield estimates, particularly when infrasound propagates over regions with steep topography or particularly slow seismic velocities, such as alluvial planes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A novel network-based approach to determining measurement representation error for model evaluation of aerosol microphysical properties

Atmospheric aerosol size and abundance influence radiative effects and climate change. To date, efforts to constrain global climate models’ radiative forcing with in situ aerosol observations have been hamstrung by uncertainty. One source of error, the regional “representation error,” arises when accurate but sparse single-point measurements of atmospheric aerosol distributions are compared with a model value, assuming that the single-point measurement is representative of the model domain. The Portable Optical Particle Spectrometer network in the Southern Great Plains (POPSnet-SGP) campaign has demonstrated that a network of nearly autonomous aerosol instruments operating at ambient temperature and relative humidity (with low measurement error) may be used to quantify measurement representation error and investigate the factors introducing heterogeneity in aerosol distributions across a rural, continental background region. Measurements were made using Portable Optical Particle Spectrometer (POPS) instruments at several sites for five months across the Department of Energy’s Aerosol Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM-SGP) User Facility in the central USA. Measurement representation error decreased with longer averaging periods (20-40 % between 1 sec and 1 day), varied between sites by 10 – 20 % for aerosol concentration 140 – 2500 nm in diameter (N_140), and was higher for aerosols > 400 nm in diameter (N_400). Our measurements also show the influence of local meteorology on aerosol surface area (A_140) and size distributions: A_140 is positively correlated with wind speed and relative humidity, negatively correlated with precipitation, and lower given westerly winds. Based on this study, we conclude that the POPSnet approach provides considerably more insight into the spatial variability in the aerosol population that can be used to constrain climate models than would be available from similar networks of PM 2.5 monitors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Data Set for Intercomparing the Transient Behavior of Dynamical Model-Based Subseasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions

Climate predictions using coupled models in different time scales, from intraseasonal to decadal, are usually affected by initial shocks, drifts, and biases, which reduce the prediction skill. These arise from inconsistencies between different components of the coupled models and from the tendency of the model state to evolve from the prescribed initial conditions toward its own climatology over the course of the prediction. Aiming to provide tools and further insight into the mechanisms responsible for initial shocks, drifts, and biases, this paper presents a novel data set developed within the Long Range Forecast Transient Intercomparison Project, LRFTIP. This data set has been constructed by averaging hindcasts over available prediction years and ensemble members to form a hindcast climatology, that is a function of spatial variables and lead time, and thus results in a useful tool for characterizing and assessing the evolution of errors as well as the physical mechanisms responsible for them. A discussion on such errors at the different time scales is provided along with plausible ways forward in the field of climate predictions

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Representations of Precipitation Diurnal Cycle in the Amazon as Simulated by Observationally Constrained Cloud‐System Resolving and Global Climate Models

Abstract The ability of an observationally‐constrained cloud‐system resolving model (Weather Research and Forecasting; WRF, 4‐km grid spacing) and a global climate model (Energy Exascale Earth System Model; E3SM, 1‐degree grid spacing) to represent the precipitation diurnal cycle over the Amazon basin during the 2014 wet season is assessed. The WRF model coupled with a 3‐D variational data assimilation scheme reproduces the spatial variability of the precipitation diurnal cycle over the basin and the lifecycle of westward propagating MCSs initiated by the coastal sea‐breeze front. In contrast, a single morning peak in rainfall is produced by E3SM for simulations despite the nudging of large‐scale winds toward global reanalysis, indicating precipitation in E3SM is largely controlled by local convection associated with diurnal heating. The role of propagating MCS on the environment are discussed by using a multivariate perturbation analysis. We also find that the advection of moisture perturbations from ocean to inland regions have a higher correlation with the occurrence of MCSs in the Amazon than the intensity of colder air intrusion associated with sea breezes along the coast. Moreover, the presence of large cold pools over the central Amazon basin are responsible for the maintenance of propagating deep convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Representing Global Soil Erosion and Sediment Flux in Earth System Models

Abstract Soil erosion produces enormous amounts of sediment, carbon, and nutrient fluxes from land to rivers, thus playing crucial roles in global biogeochemical cycles and food security. To predict soil erosion in the context of climate and land use changes, we explicitly parameterize cropland management actions (i.e., irrigation, conserved agriculture, and crop residue management) and geological factors (i.e., lithology and glacier) in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) soil erosion module. The erosion model is calibrated using a global‐scale regionalized parameter calibration method. The spatial variabilities of the modeled and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) based benchmark soil erosion are consistent across vegetation, climate and soil properties. Compared with independent data, our model shows a bias reduction in 59% of the observations relative to the RUSLE‐based soil erosion, with 53% of the bias reduction exceeding 50%. This improvement is mainly due to a better representation of the topographic effect on soil erosion. Our results indicate that conserved agriculture practices have effectively reduced soil erosion in cropland by over 25% in the United States and Argentina. In contrast, irrigation has increased soil erosion in many Asian countries. For upland sediment flux, our model is consistent with the WBMsed benchmark data in inter‐basin variability but could be more skillful in simulating intra‐basin variability because it couples soil erosion and sediment flux explicitly. The developed model provides useful skills for more realistic predictions of soil erosion and river sediment dynamics under environmental changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Improved Zhang's Dynamic Water Balance Model Using Budyko-Based Snow Representation for Better Streamflow Predictions

Understanding the water balance of a catchment in relation to its regional climate forcings and catchment characteristics is critical for predicting current and future water resources amid changing climate and land cover. This study intends to improve Zhang's monthly water balance model (a physics-based conceptual hydrologic model) that reflects the physical partitioning process of the hydrological cycle at the basin level based on regional climate and catchment characteristics. The existing model does not include snow process and has confronted evident limitations in snow-affected areas, which is a critical aspect since snowmelt water has been a significant source of water resources for many regions, especially in the temperate and frigid zones. We introduce a snow module based on surface energy balance and Budyko-limits on melting and combine it with the existing water balance equations. Moreover, monthly parameterization is applied to the model to better explain the time-varying hydrological characteristics of a catchment. The proposed model involves five different monthly parameters, which determine the physical partitioning process of the hydrological cycle, and they are regionally calibrated and validated under Budyko-type constraints. The model is applied to 1,210 basins across the continental United States (CONUS), and the simulated streamflow is compared to the observed data. The proposed model significantly outperformed the original model, improving the median NSE by 31% (from 0.51 to 0.67) and increasing the number of catchments with an acceptable NSE by 58%. The spatial variability of the basin characteristics across the CONUS is also investigated based on the calibrated parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lower Urban Humidity Moderates Outdoor Heat Stress

Abstract Surface temperature is often used to examine heat exposure in multi‐city studies and for informing urban heat mitigation efforts due to scarcity of urban air temperature measurements. Cities also have lower relative humidity, traditionally not accounted for in large‐scale observational urban heat risk assessments. Here, using crowdsourced measurements from over 40,000 weather stations in ≈600 urban clusters in Europe, we show the moderating effect of this urbanization‐induced humidity reduction on outdoor heat stress during the 2019 heatwave. We demonstrate that daytime differences in heat index between urban clusters and their surroundings are weak, and associations of this urban‐rural difference with background climate, generally examined from the surface temperature perspective, are diminished due to moisture feedbacks. We also examine the spatial variability of surface temperature, air temperature, and heat index within these clusters—relevant for detecting hotspots and potential disparities in heat exposure—and find that surface temperature is a poor proxy for the intra‐urban distribution of heat index during daytime. Finally, urban vegetation shows much weaker (∼1/6th as strong) associations with heat index than with surface temperature, which has broad implications for optimizing urban heat stress mitigation strategies. These findings are valid for operational metrics of heat stress for shaded conditions (apparent temperature and humidex), thermodynamic proxies (wet‐bulb temperature), and empirical heat indices. Based on this large‐scale empirical evidence, surface temperature, used due to the lack of better alternatives, may not be suitable for accurately informing heat mitigation strategies within and across cities, necessitating more urban‐scale observations and better urban‐resolving models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy Surplus and an Atmosphere‐Land‐Surface “Tug of War” Control Future Evapotranspiration

Abstract The 21st century evapotranspiration (ET) trends over the continental U.S. are assessed using innovative, energy‐based principles. Annual ET is projected to increase with high confidence at the rate of 20 mm for every 1℃ of rise in near‐surface air temperature, or 0.45 or 0.98 mm/year/year, depending on the emission scenario. The ET trajectory is dominated (58%) by the increase of land‐surface net radiative energy. An enhancement of the fraction of energy taken up by ET becomes a more important controller (53%) in late 21st century, under the high emission scenario. This increase is explained by the “tug of war” between atmospheric vapor demand and land‐surface ability to supply water. An assessment of future water availability (precipitation minus ET) shows no significant changes at the continental scale. This outcome nevertheless hides strong spatial variability, emphasizing the role of ET in shaping the distribution of water availability among human populations.

Xu, Donghui↗

The Realistic Potential of Soil Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Croplands for Climate Mitigation

Existing estimates of the climate mitigation potential from cropland carbon sequestration (C-sequestration) are limited because they tend to assume constant rates of soil organic carbon change over all available cropland area, use relatively coarse land delineations, and often fail to adequately consider the agronomic and socioeconomic dimensions of agricultural land use. This results in an inflated estimate of the C-sequestration potential. We address this gap by defining a more appropriate land base for cover cropping in the United States for C-sequestration purposes: stable croplands in annual production systems that can integrate cover cropping without irrigation. Our baseline estimate of this suitable stable cropland area is 32% of current U.S. cropland extent. Even an alternative, less restrictive definition of stability results in a large reduction in area (44% of current U.S. croplands). Focusing cover crop implementation to this constrained land base would increase durability of associated C-sequestration and limit soil carbon loss from land conversion to qualify for carbon-specific incentives. Applying spatially-variable C-sequestration rates from the literature to our baseline area yields a technical potential of 19.4 Tg CO 2 e yr –1 annually, about one-fifth of previous estimates. We also find the cost of realizing about half (10 Tg CO 2 e yr –1 ) of this potential could exceed 100 USD Mg CO 2 e –1 , an order of magnitude higher than previously thought. While our economic analyses suggest that financial incentives are necessary for large-scale adoption of cover cropping in the U.S., they also imply any C-sequestration realized under such incentives is likely to be additional.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea‐Level Rise?

Wetland restoration is an increasingly popular nature‐based method for flood risk mitigation in coastal communities. In this study, we present a novel method using hydrodynamic modeling and harmonic analysis to quantify wetlands' ability to reduce future nuisance flooding. The method leverages a hydrodynamic model calibrated to present day data and was run for a range of future sea‐level rise (SLR) and wetland restoration scenarios to quantify changes to tidal harmonic amplitudes and phases. The harmonic constituents are used to generate water surface elevations over a time period of interest (e.g., one year) and compared to critical exceedance thresholds such as levee elevations. Then, changes to nuisance flooding are calculated by counting the number of hours critical thresholds are exceeded under different SLR and wetland restoration scenarios. We applied the method to Coos Bay, Oregon, USA as a test case. We found restoration reduces the number of hours nuisance flooding occurs in downtown Coos Bay from 15 hr (present day conditions) to 0 hr (fully restored condition) under median SLR (82 cm by 2100). Restoration had spatially variable impacts on reducing peak flood elevations with minimal impacts near the estuary mouth and greatest impact 32 km inland. The effectiveness of restoration was heavily dependent on future SLR. Restoration was maximally effective in 2050 under all SLR scenarios, less effective in 2100 under median SLR, and not effective under high SLR. Modeling results suggest increased tidal prism and accommodation space are driving restoration‐associated reductions in tidal amplitudes.

Brand, Matthew W. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗

Quartz Dissolution Effects on Flow Channelization and Transport Behavior in Three‐Dimensional Fracture Networks

We perform a set of reactive transport simulations in three-dimensional fracture networks to characterize the impact of geochemical reactions on flow channelization. Flow channelization, a frequently observed phenomenon in porous and fractured subsurface rock formations, results from the spatially variable hydraulic resistance offered by a geological structure. In addition to geo-structural features such as network connectivity, geometry, and hydraulic resistance, geochemical reactions, for example, dissolution and precipitation, can dynamically inhibit or enhance flow channelization. These geochemical processes can change the fracture permeability leading to increased flow channelization, which are localized connected regions of high volumetric flow rates that are seemingly ubiquitous in the subsurface. In our simulations, fractures partially filled with quartz are gradually dissolved until quasi-steady state conditions are obtained. We compare the flow field's initial unreacted and final dissolved states in terms of flow and transport observations. We observe that the dissolved fracture networks provide less resistance to flow and exhibit increased flow channelization when compared to their unreacted counterparts. However, there is substantial variability in the magnitude of these changes which implies that the channelization strongly depends on the network structure. In turn, we identify the interplay between the particular network structure and the impact of geochemical dissolution on flow channelization. The presented results indicate that geological systems that have been weathering or reactive for longer times in older landscapes are likely to have increased flow channelization compared to their equivalent but younger counterparts, which implies a time dependence on flow channelization in fractured media.

Hyman, Jeffrey D.↗

Land Processes Can Substantially Impact the Mean Climate State

Terrestrial processes influence the atmosphere by controlling land-to-atmosphere fluxes of energy, water, and carbon. Prior research has demonstrated that parameter uncertainty drives uncertainty in land surface fluxes. However, the influence of land process uncertainty on the climate system remains underexplored. Here, we quantify how assumptions about land processes impact climate using a perturbed parameter ensemble for 18 land parameters in the Community Earth System Model version 2 under preindustrial conditions. We find that an observationally-informed range of land parameters generate biogeophysical feedbacks that significantly influence the mean climate state, largely by modifying evapotranspiration. Global mean land surface temperature ranges by 2.2°C across our ensemble (σ = 0.5°C) and precipitation changes were significant and spatially variable. Our analysis demonstrates that the impacts of land parameter uncertainty on surface fluxes propagate to the entire Earth system, and provides insights into where and how land process uncertainty influences climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global soil profiles indicate depth-dependent soil carbon losses under a warmer climate

Soil organic carbon (SOC) changes under future climate warming are difficult to quantify in situ. Here we apply an innovative approach combining space-for-time substitution with meta-analysis to SOC measurements in 113,013 soil profiles across the globe to estimate the effect of future climate warming on steady-state SOC stocks. We find that SOC stock will reduce by 6.0 ± 1.6% (mean±95% confidence interval), 4.8 ± 2.3% and 1.3 ± 4.0% at 0–0.3, 0.3–1 and 1–2 m soil depths, respectively, under 1 °C air warming, with additional 4.2%, 2.2% and 1.4% losses per every additional 1 °C warming, respectively. The largest proportional SOC losses occur in boreal forests. Existing SOC level is the predominant determinant of the spatial variability of SOC changes with higher percentage losses in SOC-rich soils. Our work demonstrates that warming induces more proportional SOC losses in topsoil than in subsoil, particularly from high-latitudinal SOC-rich systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of ITER radiation environment during the remote-handling operation of In-Vessel components with D1SUNED

During ITER operational life, a remote-handled cask will be used to transfer In-Vessel components to the Hot Cell for maintenance, storage and decommissioning purposes. Due to the distribution of penetrations for system allocation in the facility, the radiation field of each transfer operation presents a high spatial variability; all operations must be studied independently for workers and electronics protection. In this paper, we present a fully representative approach to describe the radiation environment during the complete remote-handling scenario of In-Vessel components in the ITER facility. The impact of all relevant radiation sources during different stages of the operation is addressed. As-built structures and 2020 baseline designs are considered to produce the most detailed neutronics model of the Tokamak Complex, the 400,000-tonne civil structure hosting the tokamak, up to date. Novel capabilities of the D1SUNED code have allowed to compute the integral dose, the dose rate and the photon-induced neutron flux of both moving and static radiation sources. Time bins are included in the simulations to compute the dose rate caused by In-Vessel components at all positions along the transfer. The time evolution of the dose rate is built in video format with a 1-m resolution, especially valuable for hot-spots identification.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Efficient generation and amplification of intense vortex and vector laser pulses via strongly-coupled stimulated Brillouin scattering in plasmas

The past decade has seen tremendous progress in the production and utilization of vortex and vector laser pulses. Although both are considered as structured light beams, the vortex lasers have helical phase fronts and phase singularities, while the vector lasers have spatially variable polarization states and polarization singularities. In contrast to the vortex pulses that carry orbital angular momentum (OAM), the vector laser pulses have a complex spin angular momentum (SAM) and OAM coupling. Despite many potential applications enabled by such pulses, the generation of high-power/-intensity vortex and vector beams remains challenging. Here, we demonstrate using theory and three-dimensional simulations that the strongly-coupled stimulated Brillouin scattering (SC-SBS) process in plasmas can be used as a promising amplification technique with up to 65% energy transfer efficiency from the pump beam to the seed beam for both vortex and vector pulses. We also show that SC-SBS is strongly polarization-dependent in plasmas, enabling an all-optical polarization control of the amplified seed beam. Additionally, the interaction of such structured lasers with plasmas leads to various angular momentum couplings and decouplings that produce intense new light structures with controllable OAM and SAM. This scheme paves the way for novel optical devices such as plasma-based amplifiers and light field manipulators.

Physics↗