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At least 397 records · Page 22

Machine-Learning-Based Mapping and Modeling of Solar Energy with Ultra-High Spatiotemporal Granularity

Despite the rapid growth of solar energy, we still lack a dynamic, high-fidelity database that tracks the spatiotemporal variations of solar PVs and their associated infrastructures across different places at a spatially resolved scale. The absence of such data presents a barrier to various applications such as solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar incentive design, and climate risk assessment. In this project, we aim to bridge this gap by developing AI-based algorithms to extract granular information about solar PV installations and their associated infrastructures (i.e., distribution grids) from widely available unstructured data like remote sensing images and street views. As a result, we have built the Solar Energy Atlas, a fine-grained, large-scale geospatial overlay of distributed solar PVs and distribution grids. On top of it, we have advanced the understanding of solar adoption and distribution grid vulnerability to climate-induced extremes. Our major contributions can be summarized as follow: (1) By developing new AI algorithms, we have built the most comprehensive solar PV spatiotemporal database covering the entire US. This is the first time we obtained the exact GPS locations, size, subtype, and installation year information for rooftop solar PVs across the US. This database can be used for solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar energy policy analysis and design, and spatially-resolved climate risk assessment. (2) Leveraging this database, we have uncovered the socioeconomic driving factors that are correlated with earlier onset of solar adoption and higher saturated adoption levels. We have identified the heterogeneity in the effects of different types of financial incentives on solar adoption and provided implications for tailoring incentive design based on local income levels to promote equitable solar adoption. (3) We have developed a distribution grid GIS mapping algorithm which can obtain granular geospatial and topology information about distribution grids using multi-modal open data, reducing the dependency on hard-to-obtain smart meter data of conventional approaches. It shows effectiveness in both the U.S. and Sub-Saharan Africa. Using this algorithm, we have uncovered the non-uniform vulnerability of distribution grids to wildfires in California in the aspects of undergrounding protection and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) preparedness. This has provided important implications for improving the affordability and equity of grid adaptation approaches. (3) We have made our produced database publicly available and provided user-friendly interface to enable various stakeholders and the general public to interact with the data. We have also integrated the produced data into the Data Commons platform to enable the public to access the data and correlate it with other location-specific characteristics simply using natural language as queries. The impact of our project is three-fold: (1) New algorithms for mapping solar PVs and distribution grids across space and time, which are open source to facilitate researchers and industry; (2) New databases of solar PVs and distribution grids that have been made publicly available for engineering, social, and policy applications; (3) New understandings and actionable insights on the potential approaches to promoting solar adoption and reducing energy infrastructure vulnerabilities. In this report, we start by discussing the project background and motivation (section 5), followed by the overview of project objectives (section 6). Results and discussion for each task are presented in section 7. Significant accomplishments are summarized in section 8. This report will be concluded by discussing the paths forwards (section 9), products (section 10), and team roles (section 11).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Coupling of ssRNA cleavage with DNase activity in type III-A CRISPR-Csm revealed by cryo-EM and biochemistry

The type III CRISPR-Cas (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats-CRISPR-associated genes) systems are bacterially encoded adaptive immune systems for defense against invading nucleic acids. They accomplish this task through the coordinated cleavage of invading substrates of single-stranded RNA and DNA (ssDNA and ssRNA) by the Csm (type III-A) or Cmr (type III-B) effector complexes. The ssRNA is complementarily bound to the CRISPR RNA (crRNA). However, the structural basis for the DNase and RNase activation of the Csm nucleoprotein complex is largely unknown. Here we report cryo-EM structures of the Csm-crRNA complex, with or without target ssRNA, at near-atomic resolution. Our cryo-EM maps allow us to build atomic models of the key macromolecular components, including Cas10, Csm2, Csm3, Csm4, crRNA and the invading ssRNA. Our structure resolves unambiguously the stoichiometry and tertiary structures of the Csm protein complex and the interactions between protein components and the crRNA/ssRNA. Interestingly, the new atomic structures of the Csm proteins presented here are similar to those of previously known Csm proteins in other species despite their low sequence similarity. Our combined structural and biochemical data suggest that ssRNA cleavage is preferentially carried out near its 5’-end, that the extent of interactions among the ssRNA, crRNA and the protein components regulates the DNase activity of the Csm complex, and that the 3’ flanking sequence of ssRNA activates the Cas10 DNase activity allosterically.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Efficient Synthesis of Graph Methods: a Dynamically Scheduled Architecture

RDF databases naturally map to a graph representation and employ languages, such as SPARQL, that implements queries as graph pattern matching routines. Graph methods exhibit an irregular behavior: they present unpredictable, fine-grained data accesses, and are synchronization inten- sive. Graph data structures expose large amounts of dy- namic parallelism, but are difficult to partition without gen- erating load unbalance. In this paper, we present a novel ar- chitecture to improve the synthesis of graph methods. Our design addresses the issues of these algorithms with two com- ponents: a Dynamic Task Scheduler (DTS), which reduces load unbalance and maximize resource utilization, and a Hi- erarchical Memory Interface controller (HMI), which pro- vides support for concurrent memory operations on multi- ported/multi-banked shared memories. We evaluate our ap- proach by generating the accelerators for a set of SPARQL queries from the Lehigh University Benchmark (LUBM). We first analyze the load unbalance of these queries, showing that execution time among tasks can differ even of order of magnitudes. We then synthesize the queries and com- pare the performance of the resulting accelerators against the current state of the art. Experimental results show that our solution provides a speedup over the serial implementa- tion close to the theoretical maximum and a speedup up to 3.45 over a baseline parallel implementation. We conclude our study by exploring the design space to achieve maximum memory channels utilization. The best design used at least three of the four memory channels for more than 90% of the execution time.

architecture↗

Unexpected topology of the temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background

We study the topology generated by the temperature fluctuations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation, as quantified by the number of components and holes, formally given by the Betti numbers, in the growing excursion sets. We compare CMB maps observed by the Planck satellite with a thousand simulated maps generated according to the $Λ$CDM paradigm with Gaussian distributed fluctuations. The comparison is multi-scale, being performed on a sequence of degraded maps with mean pixel separation ranging from 0.05 to 7.33°. The survey of the CMB over S 2 is incomplete due to obfuscation effects by bright point sources and other extended foreground objects like our own galaxy. To deal with such situations, where analysis in the presence of “masks” is of importance, we introduce the concept of relative homology. The parametric χ 2 -test shows differences between observations and simulations, yielding p -values at percent to less than permil levels roughly between 2 and 7°, with the difference in the number of components and holes peaking at more than 3 σ sporadically at these scales. The highest observed deviation between the observations and simulations for b 0 and b 1 is approximately between 3 σ and 4 σ at scales of 3–7°. There are reports of mildly unusual behaviour of the Euler characteristic at 3.66° in the literature, computed from independent measurements of the CMB temperature fluctuations by Planck ’s predecessor, the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) satellite. The mildly anomalous behaviour of the Euler characteristic is phenomenologically related to the strongly anomalous behaviour of components and holes, or the zeroth and first Betti numbers, respectively. Further, since these topological descriptors show consistent anomalous behaviour over independent measurements of Planck and WMAP, instrumental and systematic errors may be an unlikely source. These are also the scales at which the observed maps exhibit low variance compared to the simulations, and approximately the range of scales at which the power spectrum exhibits a dip with respect to the theoretical model. Non-parametric tests show even stronger differences at almost all scales. Crucially, Gaussian simulations based on power-spectrum matching the characteristics of the observed dipped power spectrum are not able to resolve the anomaly. Understanding the origin of the anomalies in the CMB, whether cosmological in nature or arising due to late-time effects, is an extremely challenging task. Regardless, beyond the trivial possibility that this may still be a manifestation of an extreme Gaussian case, these observations, along with the super-horizon scales involved, may motivate the study of primordial non-Gaussianity. Alternative scenarios worth exploring may be models with non-trivial topology, including topological defect models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

QuantumNAT: quantum noise-aware training with noise injection, quantization and normalization

Parameterized Quantum Circuits (PQC) are promising towards quantum advantage on near-term quantum hardware. However, due to the large quantum noises (errors), the performance of PQC models has a severe degradation on real quantum devices. Take Quantum Neural Network (QNN) as an example, the accuracy gap between noise-free simulation and noisy results on IBMQ-Yorktown for MNIST-4 classification is over 60%. Existing noise mitigation methods are general ones without leveraging unique characteristics of PQC; on the other hand, existing PQC work does not consider noise effect. To this end, we present QuantumNAT, a PQC-specific framework to perform noise-aware optimizations in both training and inference stages to improve robustness. We experimentally observe that the effect of quantum noise to PQC measurement outcome is a linear map from noise-free outcome with a scaling and a shift factor. Motivated by that, we propose post-measurement normalization to mitigate the feature distribution differences between noise-free and noisy scenarios. Furthermore, to improve the robustness against noise, we propose noise injection to the training process by inserting quantum error gates to PQC according to realistic noise models of quantum hardware. Lastly, post-measurement quantization is introduced to quantize the measurement outcomes to discrete values, achieving the denoising effect. Extensive experiments on 8 classification tasks using 6 quantum devices demonstrate that QuantumNAT improves accuracy by up to 43%, and achieves over 94% 2-class, 80% 4-class, and 34% 10-class classification accuracy measured on real quantum computers. The code for construction and noise-aware training of PQC is available in the TorchQuantum library.

Wang, Hanrui↗

Yet Another Discriminant Analysis (YADA): A Probabilistic Model for Machine Learning Applications

This paper presents a probabilistic model for various machine learning (ML) applications. While deep learning (DL) has produced state-of-the-art results in many domains, DL models are complex and over-parameterized, which leads to high uncertainty about what the model has learned, as well as its decision process. Further, DL models are not probabilistic, making reasoning about their output challenging. In contrast, the proposed model, referred to as Yet Another Discriminate Analysis(YADA), is less complex than other methods, is based on a mathematically rigorous foundation, and can be utilized for a wide variety of ML tasks including classification, explainability, and uncertainty quantification. YADA is thus competitive in most cases with many state-of-the-art DL models. Ideally, a probabilistic model would represent the full joint probability distribution of its features, but doing so is often computationally expensive and intractable. Hence, many probabilistic models assume that the features are either normally distributed, mutually independent, or both, which can severely limit their performance. YADA is an intermediate model that (1) captures the marginal distributions of each variable and the pairwise correlations between variables and (2) explicitly maps features to the space of multivariate Gaussian variables. Numerous mathematical properties of the YADA model can be derived, thereby improving the theoretic underpinnings of ML. Validation of the model can be statistically verified on new or held-out data using native properties of YADA. However, there are some engineering and practical challenges that we enumerate to make YADA more useful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Upgrade Your Work Plans for Better Performance - 16103

Most work plans involve at least two basic pieces: a list of things to do and a timeline for doing them. These 'tasks-and-times' plans can be used for managing a project, an organizational change, or the implementation of a strategic objective. But given the high rate of plan failures - often cited as ranging from 35% to over 80% - something must be missing. Three ideas for upgrading work plans have demonstrated higher success rates than the time-and-task method alone. First, maintain a 'GPS Scorecard' of the Goals, Performance metrics, and Schedules for accomplishment. Second, maintain a Performance Circle Register of all key players, and the key deliverables to and from each of them, that will ensure success. Third, implement all three parts of an accountability management system, collectively referred to as 'T3': Tracking, Team assignments, and Talk-times to update status and progress against the plan. Why bother to take the extra steps to strengthen work plans? There are three reasons: (a) Because traveling without a map is risky in times of high change in infrastructure, staffing, and technology; (b) Because 'expectations' do not guarantee delivery as reliably as well-defined agreements; and (c) Because 'accountability' is a management practice, not a personality trait. Together, implementing these three ideas can provide for clarity of purpose, guidance in establishing the productive relationships necessary for success, and a system of supporting accountability for all participants, both on the team and with others inside and outside of the organization. (authors)

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Savannah River Site H-Canyon Collaborative Advanced Technology Demonstration (ATD) Program Review - 19499

The purpose of the Department of Energy-Environmental Management Office of Technology Development's (DOE-EM TD) Science of Safety (SOS) Robotics Initiative is to pull innovative commercial off the shelf (COTS) and near ready technologies to the field to expedite remaining EM mission clean up and enhance worker safety. A goal of this program is to demonstrate to DOE facilities the value of these available new technologies and their potential uses to solve difficult problems. In support of this goal, the Savannah River Site (SRS) H-Canyon Air Exhaust (HCAEX) tunnel biannual inspection task has been selected to demonstrate and evaluate the benefit of pulling advanced technology solutions to EM facilities. This is a highly collaborative task facilitated by SRNL and engaging SRS H-Canyon facility stakeholders, National Laboratory robotic and concrete inspection SMEs and university robotic and sensor researchers. Presently, the SRS HCAEX tunnel inspection consists of a visual examination to evaluate the structural integrity of the tunnel. Personal access is prohibited in the tunnel due to extreme conditions, thus the examination is accomplished remotely by deploying cameras mounted on a robotic crawler deployed into the tunnel. While the ability to see inside the tunnel in recent years has been highly valuable, it is desirable to have a better understanding of the environment to support a more thorough structural analysis and for long term planning purposes. This higher order of understanding can be accomplished through advanced COTS sensors and tools and those currently in development and near ready. The advanced technologies selected for demonstration will be evaluated for hosting on the FY19 HCAEX tunnel inspection crawler platform. The HCAEX ATD task is expected to be performed over a two-year period with year one now concluding. At WM2018, we presented the H-Canyon stakeholder's high priority inspection and remote handling needs, the collaboration team and the planned process of developing an integrated solution. This presentation will review the initial scope and inspection needs, then discuss the past year's progress to address these needs. The discussion includes the results of the Concrete Integrated Product Team (CIPT) formed to evaluate promising concrete NDE inspection technologies and a Lidar based tunnel mapping sensor suite solution. Highlighted in the discussion will be the engagement and pulling of university developed research and development to include student engagement through the formation and hosting of the SRNL Robotics and Sensors Intern team and collaboration with MSIPP funded Robotic Arm Concrete NDT Inspection University researchers. Lastly, the path forward to complete the demonstration will be presented. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Hydropower Game: An Interactive Learning Tool for the Future Hydropower Workforce

This report documents a Seedling project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), conducted by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). The Seedling and Sapling Program provides small grants over short duration to enable early-stage research at national laboratories. This funding mechanism is intended to cultivate innovative ideas and expand research road maps in hydropower and marine energy technologies. Under this Seedling award, the project team developed an educational outreach tool, or “serious game”, built in Python and powered by the Pygame library, aimed at teaching fundamental hydropower concepts through an engaging, interactive learning experience. The game features multiple lessons covering several hydropower topics while allowing for expansion and customization in the instance of future funding availability: • Hydropower Plant Types: Players explore and compare the mechanics and applications of run-of-river, dam hydropower, and pumped-storage hydropower. • Flow Dynamics and Power Generation: Interactive tasks demonstrate how release rate and hydraulic head combine to determine power output. • Grid Operations and Load Following: Simulations illustrate how hydropower facilities respond to fluctuating electricity demand to balance the grid. • Market Integration: Levels scaffold understanding of how hydropower interfaces with the broader energy market, including operational and economic considerations. The tool was showcased at several science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) outreach events, where it was demoed to students, educators, and the general public. These events provided valuable opportunities to collect feedback on the gameplay, storyline, and educational objectives from a wide audience. The game was presented at STEMapalooza, Introduce a Girl to Engineering Day, STEMCON, and Clean Currents 2025. Insights gathered during these demonstrations informed refinements to the game’s user experience and strengthened its effectiveness as an educational tool for teaching hydropower concepts. This report outlines the game’s design philosophy, educational objectives, technical implementation, user experience insights, and potential for broader deployment within educational and workforce development contexts. It emphasizes how gamified learning can demystify complex hydropower science and inspire interest in water-power technologies. The project’s success demonstrates the value of Seedling funding in fostering creative, lowcost educational tools that support DOE’s mission to advance energy literacy and innovation. The report concludes with recommendations for expanding the tool by adding new levels, integrating assessment metrics, and exploring commercialization or deployment pathways through future Sapling funding. The official webpage of the Hydropower Game, which includes a link to the educational tool, can be accessed at www.anl.gov/hydropower/hydropower-game.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

ISAVS: Interactive Scalable Analysis and Visualization System

Modern science is inundated with ever increasing data sizes as computational capabilities and image acquisition techniques continue to improve. For example, simulations are tackling ever larger domains with higher fidelity, and high-throughput microscopy techniques generate larger data that are fundamental to gather biologically and medically relevant insights. As the image sizes exceed memory, and even sometimes local disk space, each step in a scientific workflow is impacted. Current software solutions enable data exploration with limited interactivity for visualization and analytic tasks. Furthermore analysis on HPC systems often require complex hand-written parallel implementations of algorithms that suffer from poor portability and maintainability. We present a software infrastructure that simplifies end-to-end visualization and analysis of massive data. First, a hierarchical streaming data access layer enables interactive exploration of remote data, with fast data fetching to test analytics on subsets of the data. Second, a library simplifies the process of developing new analytics algorithms, allowing users to rapidly prototype new approaches and deploy them in an HPC setting. Third, a scalable runtime system automates mapping analysis algorithms to whatever computational hardware is available, reducing the complexity of developing scaling algorithms. Here, we demonstrate the usability and performance of our system using a use case from neuroscience: filtering, registration, and visualization of tera-scale microscopy data. We evaluate the performance of our system using a leadership-class supercomputer, Shaheen II.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Self-Supervised Anomaly Detection via Neural Autoregressive Flows with Active Learning

Many self-supervised methods have been proposed with the target of image anomaly detection. These methods often rely on the paradigm of data augmentation with predefined transformations such as flipping, cropping, and rotations. However, it is not straightforward to apply these techniques for non-image data, such as time series or tabular data, while the performance of the existing deep approaches has been under our expectation on tasks beyond images. In this work, we propose a novel active learning (AL) scheme that relied on neural autoregressive flows (NAF) for self-supervised anomaly detection, specifically on small-scale data. Unlike other generative models such as GANs or VAEs, flow-based models allow to explicitly learn the probability density and thus can assign accurate likelihoods to normal data which makes it usable to detect anomalies. The proposed NAF-AL method is achieved by efficiently generating random samples from latent space and transforming them into feature space along with likelihoods via invertible mapping. The samples with lower likelihoods are selected and further checked by outlier detection using Mahalanobis distance. The augmented samples incorporating with normal samples are used for training a better detector so as to approach decision boundaries. Compared with random transformations, NAF-AL can be interpreted as a likelihood-oriented data augmentation that is more efficient and robust. Extensive experiments show that our approach outperforms existing baselines on multiple time series and tabular datasets, and a real-world application in advanced manufacturing, with significant improvement on anomaly detection accuracy and robustness over the state-of-the-art.

Zhang, Jiaxin↗

On the parameter combinations that matter and on those that do not: data-driven studies of parameter (non)identifiability

Abstract We present a data-driven approach to characterizing nonidentifiability of a model’s parameters and illustrate it through dynamic as well as steady kinetic models. By employing Diffusion Maps and their extensions, we discover the minimal combinations of parameters required to characterize the output behavior of a chemical system: a set of effective parameters for the model. Furthermore, we introduce and use a Conformal Autoencoder Neural Network technique, as well as a kernel-based Jointly Smooth Function technique, to disentangle the redundant parameter combinations that do not affect the output behavior from the ones that do. We discuss the interpretability of our data-driven effective parameters, and demonstrate the utility of the approach both for behavior prediction and parameter estimation. In the latter task, it becomes important to describe level sets in parameter space that are consistent with a particular output behavior. We validate our approach on a model of multisite phosphorylation, where a reduced set of effective parameters (nonlinear combinations of the physical ones) has previously been established analytically.

Evangelou, Nikolaos↗

Centrally managed unified shared virtual address space

Systems, apparatuses, and methods for managing a unified shared virtual address space. A host may execute system software and manage a plurality of nodes coupled to the host. The host may send work tasks to the nodes, and for each node, the host may externally manage the node's view of the system's virtual address space. Each node may have a central processing unit (CPU) style memory management unit (MMU) with an internal translation lookaside buffer (TLB). In one embodiment, the host may be coupled to a given node via an input/output memory management unit (IOMMU) interface, where the IOMMU frontend interface shares the TLB with the given node's MMU. In another embodiment, the host may control the given node's view of virtual address space via memory-mapped control registers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

CMLM (Co-Optimized Machine-Learned Manifolds) [SWR-23-41]

Co-optimized Machine-Learned Manifolds (CMLM) is a data-driven approach for developing reduced-order manifold models for high-dimensional chemically reacting systems. It involves a specially designed neural network, the training of which simultaneously optimizes linear combinations of species that define the manifold, nonlinear mapping to outputs of interest such as reaction rates, and (optionally) subfilter closure for large eddy simulation. This software package provides an implementation of the CMLM approach in Python using the PyTorch machine learning library. A few example cases are included, showing how the tool can be applied to different types of data from 0D and 1D reacting simulations performed using Cantera. The neural networks can be saved in a format that is readable by the Pele suite of combustion solvers for use in reacting computational fluid dynamics simulations. This software repository contains several python scripts to perform various tasks associated with the Co-optimized Machine Learned Manifolds (CMLM) model, which is described in Perry, Henry de Frahan, and Yellapantula, CNF, 2022 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.combustflame.2022.112286). This includes not only the code that defines the CMLM model, but also scripts to generate suitable training data, scripts to pre-process the data, scripts to train the CMLM model, and scripts to plot the output, as well as various other helper files. The scripts depend on several commonly used python libraries for data analysis and chemical reaction computations. The trained models that result from this tool are designed to work with the an interface being implemented in the Pele suite of reacting flow solvers (https://github.com/AMReX-Combustion).

Perry, Bruce↗

Solving Large‐Scale Linear Systems of Equations by a Quantum Hybrid Algorithm

Abstract Today's intermediate‐scale quantum computers, although imperfect, already perform computational tasks that are manifestly beyond the capabilities of modern classical supercomputers. However, so far, quantum‐enabled large‐scale solutions have been realized only for limited set of problems. Here a hybrid algorithm based on phase estimation and classical optimization of the circuit width and depth is employed for solving a specific class of large linear systems of equations ubiquitous to many areas of science and engineering. A classification of linear systems based on the entanglement properties of the associated phase‐estimation unitary operation is introduced, enabling a highly efficient search for solutions that is facilitated by a straightforward matrix‐to‐circuit map. A 2 17 ‐dimensional problem is implemented on several IBM quantum computer superconducting quantum processors, a record‐breaking result for a linear system solved by a quantum computer. Demonstrated realisation sets a clear benchmark in the quest for the future quantum speedup in the linear systems of equations solution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Machine learning enabled discovery of superhard and ultrahard carbon polymorphs

The demand for multifunctional materials has motivated the move from near-equilibrium materials to metastable i.e. out-of-equilibrium phases that can meet several desired target properties. The search for such metastable phases with exotic properties is non-trivial and often serendipitous. Inverse design approaches based on evolutionary search have been powerful tools, but such traditional searches have focused on identifying primarily stable and metastable materials with the lowest enthalpy. The inverse design of materials, with a focus on a desired property such as, for example, hardness is a challenging task because of the expensive computational cost involved in sampling multiple structures. The recent advances in machine learning have brought new powerful AI techniques to the forefront which can potentially revolutionize the inverse design and discovery of materials, especially metastable phases capable of meeting multifunctionality. Here, in this work, we develop and apply an automated reinforcement learning workflow for inverse design that integrates first principles physics and atomistic simulations with machine learning (ML), and high-performance computing to allow rapid exploration of the superhard and ultrahard metastable phases of Carbon. We demonstrate an automatic machine learning based inverse design workflow to map new undiscovered metastable states ranging from near equilibrium to those far-from-equilibrium that satisfy multiple property objectives, specifically bulk moduli, shear moduli and hardness. We create a comprehensive library of carbon stable and metastable phases with varying hardness and subsequently shortlist 10 top performing candidate carbon structures, including two newly reported phases, based on their hardness and characterize their temperature dependent mechanical properties. A neural network model is built using featurization of allotropes of carbon to predict the quasi-harmonic Gibbs free energies. The Gibbs free energies of the top performing phases are analyzed to get an estimate of the experimental synthesizability of these superhard and ultrahard carbon phases. In general, we show using machine learning based inverse design approaches how hitherto inaccessible metastable states can be identified and potentially synthesized to meet the demand for multifunctional materials.

Balasubramanian, Karthik [Univ. of Illinois, Chica↗

Manifold Learning-Based Polynomial Chaos Expansions for High-Dimensional Surrogate Models

In this work we introduce a manifold learning-based method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in systems describing complex spatiotemporal processes. Our first objective is to identify the embedding of a set of high-dimensional data representing quantities of interest of the computational or analytical model. For this purpose, we employ Grassmannian diffusion maps, a two-step nonlinear dimension reduction technique which allows us to reduce the dimensionality of the data and identify meaningful geometric descriptions in a parsimonious and inexpensive manner. Polynomial chaos expansion is then used to construct a mapping between the stochastic input parameters and the diffusion coordinates of the reduced space. An adaptive clustering technique is proposed to identify an optimal number of clusters of points in the latent space. The similarity of points allows us to construct a number of geometric harmonic emulators which are finally utilized as a set of inexpensive pretrained models to perform an inverse map of realizations of latent features to the ambient space and thus perform accurate out-of-sample predictions. Thus, the proposed method acts as an encoder-decoder system which is able to automatically handle very high-dimensional data while simultaneously operating successfully in the small-data regime. The method is demonstrated on two benchmark problems and on a system of advection-diffusion-reaction equations which model a first-order chemical reaction between two species. In all test cases, the proposed method is able to achieve highly accurate approximations which ultimately lead to the significant acceleration of UQ tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

HFTS-1 (Final Report)

Despite the long history of hydraulic fracturing, the optimal number of fracturing stages during multi-stage fracture stimulation in horizontal wells can be a complex subject. In addition to the increased expense of multistage fracturing in horizontal wells, increasing the number of fracturing stages does not always correlate with a commensurate increase in production. The problem is the application of a uniform fracture stimulation design to all stages with no consideration for geological variations along the wellbore. The result is an inefficient use and costly waste of energy and water. Optimization of the fracturing process requires an understanding of the cause-and-effect relationship between fracturing parameters and local geological properties at a given location along the wellbore. Realizing that the generalized rock mechanics theories and hypotheses are not truly applicable to fractured and laminated shales, quantifiable impacts of a shale’s geomechanical and depositional features are a prerequisite for design and implementation of optimized hydraulic fractures. The overarching goal of this project is to understand and define the relationships of shale geology and fracture dynamics using detailed field data that includes coring of the fracture domain. Finally, resource recovery from shale formations is estimated to be less than fifteen percent. Research proposed in this project will establish the foundations for investigating enhanced recovery techniques for increased resource recovery in existing fracture treated wells. Natural gas as an EOR fluid is in the initial stages of being used broadly in the oil and gas industry and as such, many aspects of the process need to be researched and addressed prior to widespread acceptance. In addition, re-fracturing techniques, particularly using cemented liners also need to be further investigated. This project explores several of these EOR techniques in greater detail, not just at the theoretical level, but through actual field test sites. This report delves into the research program, identified tasks, several studies, observations, results, and conclusions under the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site (HFTS) project. This test project is subdivided into three distinct phases and each phase is discussed in detail under separate sections. The original test site for Phase 1 as well as the Phase 2 site are in Midland Basin in Texas and operated by Laredo Petroleum. In the first two phases, the program targeted the Wolfcamp formation in Midland Basin. Phase 3 of the study targeted the EagleFord play in South Texas with Devon Energy as the operator. Significant conclusions from this study include: 1) lateral and vertical fracture growth mapping as well as proppant transport behavior, 2) Use of field gas and its applicability for huff n puff EOR injection in the Midland Basin, 3) Development and validation of proppant log, both at core scale as well as in-fill well implementation by analyzing drilling mud return samples, 4) Applicability of liner refracturing including best practices for enhanced unit level productivity. This report will detail all these studies as well as technical results and conclusions from said studies. These include general subsurface characterization work, completion designs as implemented, studies looking at fracture geometry, high resolution microseismic study, advanced crosswell strain mapping studies including drainage characterization, core characterization results, proppant analysis (core and observation wells), geochemistry, etc. to name a few.

02 PETROLEUM↗