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DOE OSTI2025

Interactions Between Climate Mean and Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability

ABSTRACT Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate mean state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing variability , will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial‐design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (−16% gross primary production), carbon pools (−35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (−33% and −22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively). By unambiguously parsing the effects of changing climate mean versus variability and quantifying their nonadditive impacts, this study lays a foundation for more robust understanding and prediction of agroecosystems' vulnerability to 21st‐century climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate change-resilient snowpack estimation in the Western United States

Abstract In the 21st century, warmer temperatures and changing atmospheric circulation will likely produce unprecedented changes in Western United States snowfall 1–3 , with impacts on the timing, amount, and spatial patterns of snowpack 4–7 . The ~900 snow pillow stations are indispensable to water resource management by measuring snow-water equivalent (SWE) 8,9 in strategic but fixed locations 10,11 . However, this network may not be impacted by climate change in the same way as the surrounding area 12 and thus fail to accurately represent unmeasured locations; climate change thereby threatens our ability to measure the effects of climate change on snow. In this work, we show that maintaining the current peak SWE estimation skill is nonetheless possible. We find that explicitly including spatial correlations—either from gridded observations or learned by the model—improves skill at predicting distributed snowpack from sparse observations by 184%. Existing artificial intelligence methods can be useful tools to harness the many available sources of snowpack information to estimate snowpack in a nonstationary climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wellbore injectivity response to step-rate CO 2 injection: Coupled thermo-poro-elastic analysis in a vertically heterogeneous formation

Safe and permanent carbon geological storages require an elaborate analysis of geomechanical stability. Subsurface injection of CO 2 changes the local temperature and pore pressure and, further, alters the stress due to thermo-poro-elastic responses. A permanent CO 2 storage testing was conducted in the water leg of Cranfield reservoir in Mississippi, USA, where hosted CO 2 enhanced-oil recovery activities. During CO 2 injection, the injection rate was ramped up twice but the bottom-hole pressure did not increase with the imposed injection rates as expected. This unexpected field observation suggests the possibility of an open-mode fracture development at the injector. However, the injector response and potential fracture development have not been rigorously interpreted with detailed near-wellbore temperature and pore pressure change upon the CO 2 injection. In this study, we performed history matching of CO 2 injection using coupled thermo-poro-elastic reservoir simulation to examine the possibility of fracturing. We built a reservoir model including vertical heterogeneity in both petrophysical and geomechanical properties estimated from well-logging analysis and laboratory experiments. The simulation results show that CO 2 injection changes stresses and support the hypothesis of development of an open-mode fracture at the injector during the Cranfield test. The near-injector region exhibits a large temperature reduction up to 55 °C with ensuing effective horizontal stress reduction up to 9.1 MPa. However, a caprock integrity issue is unlikely because of the horizontal stress contrast within layers and low hydraulic communication with the injection zone. This work indicates that the injectant temperature should be considered in the design of high-rate CO 2 injector.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Steady state thermo-mechanics and material property definition framework for analyzing DCLL blanket in the fusion nuclear science facility

In this work, a thermo-mechanics model that relies on creating the material property definition framework (MPDF) and multiphysics coupling of the heat transfer and the solid mechanics modules is developed to determine the structural integrity of the recently designed dual cooled lead lithium (DCLL) inboard blanket (IB) for the Fusion Nuclear Science Facility under steady state loads. The MPDF is called to supply fusion relevant neutron irradiation and temperature induced changes in material properties during multiphysics finite element runs, and PbLi temperature profiles are used to approximate Magnetohydrodynamics effect and the nuclear volumetric heating on the PbLi. Neutron irradiation and temperature induced reduction of the yield and ultimate strengths of F82H steel at the first wall (FW) are quantified for one year. A blanket in an assembly with gaps between blanket sectors and another blanket in an assembly with no gaps between blanket sectors, both exposed to radiation damage that lasted for one year are analyzed. Analysis using the elastic ITER structural design criteria for in-vessel components (ITER SDC-IC) design rules and a linear isotropic-hardening-type elastoplastic material model are used where most appropriate. The IB blanket with gaps between blanket sectors will withstand the steady state combined thermal and coolant loads for one year operational period but will fail if no gaps are allowed between blanket sectors. It is recommended that a gap of about 7.62 mm should be provided between IB blanket sectors during assembly which would close up during service, stop neutron streaming, reduce stresses and reduce bending of the FW into the scrape-off layer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermal Regulation of CO 2 Activation Pathways via Interfacial Water Restructuring Enables Ampere-Level, Near-Unity CO Electrosynthesis

Electrochemical reduction of CO 2 to CO is a key step in carbon utilization technologies, yet maintaining high CO selectivity under elevated temperatures relevant to industrial membrane-electrode-assembly (MEA) electrolyzers remains challenging due to the competing hydrogen evolution reaction (HER). Additionally, the temperature dependence of CO selectivity on Cu-based catalysts has remained largely unexplored. Here, we demonstrate that incorporating atomic In or Sn into Cu fundamentally reshapes the selectivity of Cu catalysts at elevated temperatures. Dilute alloy catalysts, In 1 Cu and Sn 1 Cu, achieve >95% FE of CO over a broad current-density window (0.1−1.1 A cm −2 ) at 60 °C in MEA electrolyzers, far exceeding their performance at ambient temperature. In situ attenuated total reflection surface-enhanced infrared absorption spectroscopy suggests that elevating temperature depletes interfacial water activity, which favors a shift in CO 2 activation from a proton-coupled *COOH pathway toward an electron-driven *COO − -associated pathway, while also suppressing HER and CO hydrogenation. In contrast, benchmark CO-selective catalysts such as Ag exhibit minimal temperature-induced changes in CO production at 20−60 °C. These findings identify temperature as an unavoidable yet previously underutilized operating parameter in MEA electrolyzers for high-rate, selective CO production on Cubased catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermal Image Processing for Feature Extraction from Encapsulated Phase Change Materials

Encapsulated inorganic particles with high melting points (>300 °C) are desired as high-temperature Phase Change Materials (PCMs) for next-generation Latent Heat Thermal Energy Storage (LHTES) systems. One of the many challenges during the development of PCMs is to achieve a high throughput that in turn depends on accurately modeling the relation between process parameters and geometric & thermal properties of the PCMs particle. During the production of the PCMs, a high-speed infrared camera is used to acquire images of the encapsulated material under controlled illumination conditions. This research article focuses on the development of image processing techniques for both geometric and thermal feature extraction during the development of the PCMs. A user-friendly GUI has been designed in MATLAB and preliminary experimental results have demonstrated that the method is fast, accurate and reliable for a high throughput production. The extracted features will be used to develop Machine Learning (ML) models to predict the geometric and thermal properties of the PCM based on the process parameter settings. The ML model will accelerate the search for the optimized process settings to boost the throughput of the production.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Temperature and nutrients drive eco-phenotypic dynamics in a microbial food web

Anthropogenic increases in temperature and nutrient loads will likely impact food web structure and stability. Although their independent effects have been reasonably well studied, their joint effects—particularly on coupled ecological and phenotypic dynamics—remain poorly understood. Here we experimentally manipulated temperature and nutrient levels in microbial food webs and used time-series analysis to quantify the strength of reciprocal effects between ecological and phenotypic dynamics across trophic levels. We found that (1) joint—often interactive—effects of temperature and nutrients on ecological dynamics are more common at higher trophic levels, (2) temperature and nutrients interact to shift the relative strength of top-down versus bottom-up control, and (3) rapid phenotypic change mediates observed ecological responses to changes in temperature and nutrients. Our results uncover how feedback between ecological and phenotypic dynamics mediate food web responses to environmental change. As a result, this suggests important but previously unknown ways that temperature and nutrients might jointly control the rapid eco-phenotypic feedback that determine food web dynamics in a changing world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

In situ saxs characterization of thermoresponsive behavior of a poly(ethylene glycol)-graft-(poly(vinyl caprolactam)-co-poly(vinyl acetate)) amphiphilic graft copolymer

In this work, we report the thermoresponsive assembly and rheology of an amphiphilic thermosensitive graft copolymer, poly(ethylene glycol)-graft-(poly(vinyl caprolactam)-co-poly(vinyl acetate)) (commercial name Soluplus ® ), which has been investigated for potential biomedical applications. It has received attention due to is ability to solubilize hydrophobic drugs and for its thickening behavior close to body temperature. Through use of the synchrotron at Brookhaven National Lab, and collaboration with the department of energy, the nanoscale structure and properties can be probed in greater detail. Soluplus ® undergoes two structural changes as temperature is increased; the first, a concentration independent change where samples become turbid at 32 °C. Increasing the temperature further causes the formation of physically associated hydrogels. This sol-gel transition is concentration dependent and occurs at 32 °C for 40 wt% samples, and increases to 42 °C for 10 wt% samples. From variable temperature SAXS characterization micelles of 20–25 nm in radius can be seen and maintain their size and packing below 32 °C. A gradual increase in the aggregation of micelles corresponding to a thickening of the material is also observed. Close to and above the gelation temperature, micelles collapse and form a physically associated 3D network. A model is proposed to explain these physical effects, where the poly(vinyl caprolactam) group transitions from the hydrophilic corona at room temperature to the hydrophobic core as temperature is increased.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Soil Microbes Trade-Off Biogeochemical Cycling for Stress Tolerance Traits in Response to Year-Round Climate Change

Winter air temperatures are rising faster than summer air temperatures in high-latitude forests, increasing the frequency of soil freeze/thaw events in winter. To determine how climate warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles affect soil microbial communities and the ecosystem processes they drive, we leveraged the Climate Change across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the northeastern United States, where replicate field plots receive one of three climate treatments: warming (+5°C above ambient in the growing season), warming in the growing season + winter freeze/thaw cycles (+5°C above ambient +4 freeze/thaw cycles during winter), and no treatment. Soil samples were taken from plots at six time points throughout the growing season and subjected to amplicon (rDNA) and metagenome sequencing. We found that soil fungal and bacterial community composition were affected by changes in soil temperature, where the taxonomic composition of microbial communities shifted more with the combination of growing-season warming and increased frequency of soil freeze/thaw cycles in winter than with warming alone. Warming increased the relative abundance of brown rot fungi and plant pathogens but decreased that of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, all of which recovered under combined growing-season warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles in winter. The abundance of animal parasites increased significantly under combined warming and freeze/thaw cycles. We also found that warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles suppressed bacterial taxa with the genetic potential for carbon (i.e., cellulose) decomposition and soil nitrogen cycling, such as N fixation and the final steps of denitrification. These new soil communities had higher genetic capacity for stress tolerance and lower genetic capacity to grow or reproduce, relative to the communities exposed to warming in the growing season alone. Our observations suggest that initial suppression of biogeochemical cycling with year-round climate change may be linked to the emergence of taxa that trade-off growth for stress tolerance traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Contributions From Cloud Morphological Changes to the Interannual Shortwave Cloud Feedback Based on MODIS and ISCCP Satellite Observations

The surface temperature-mediated change in cloud properties, referred to as the cloud feedback, continues to dominate the uncertainty in climate projections. A larger number of contemporary global climate models (GCMs) project a higher degree of warming than the previous generation of GCMs. This greater projected warming has been attributed to a less negative cloud feedback in the Southern Ocean. Here, we apply a novel “double decomposition method” that employs the “cloud radiative kernel” and “cloud regime” concepts, to two data sets of satellite observations to decompose the interannual cloud feedback into contributions arising from changes within and shifts between cloud morphologies. Our results show that contributions from the latter to the cloud feedback are large for certain regimes. We then focus on interpreting how both changes within and between cloud morphologies impact the shortwave cloud optical depth feedback over the Southern Ocean in light of additional observations. Results from the former cloud morphological changes reveal the importance of the wind response to warming increases low- and mid-level cloud optical thickness in the same region. Results from the latter cloud morphological changes reveal that a general shift from thick storm-track clouds to thinner oceanic low-level clouds contributes to a positive feedback over the Southern Ocean that is offset by shifts from thinner broken clouds to thicker mid- and low-level clouds. Our novel analysis can be applied to evaluate GCMs and potentially diagnose shortcomings pertaining to their physical parameterizations of particular cloud morphologies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio-economic sectors

Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio-economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating the potential response of rainfall and temperature extremes to global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring and adjusting the country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed for this purpose within the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used to dynamically downscaled four global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under the optimistic and pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. These models were employed in this study for characterizing the response of Cameroon's extreme precipitation and temperature events to global warming, using seven indices defined by the Expert Team on Cli mate Change Detection and Indices. Under global warming, the maximum number of consecutive dry (wet) days' is expected to increase (decrease). However, the annual total rainfall amount is expected to increase, mainly due to the intensification of very wet days and daily rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the temperature-based indices reveal an increase (decrease) in the total annual hot (cold) days, and overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high-mitigated low-emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, and even sometimes adapts to reverse the sign of changes. Designing reliable policies to limit the risks associated with the above changes is required, as their socio-economic consequences are likely to include food insecurity, heat-related illness, population impoverishment, price rises and market instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A lyotropic liquid crystal-templated nanofiltration membrane with thermo- and pH-responsive 3D transport pathway

We produce controlled nanostructured membranes from cross-linking of self-assembled diacrylated poloxamers. At sufficiently high concentrations, poloxamers form lyotropic liquid crystals (LLCs), such as lamellar (L α ), cubic packing of spherical micelles, and hexagonal packing of rod-like micelles in water (H 1 ). We use the H 1 phase as a template to produce orderly packed nanofibrous membranes. The obtained membrane has a continuous 3D transport pathway and can alter its nanofiltration (NF) properties in response to changes in temperature and pH. The formulation includes Pluronic P84-diacrylate (P84DA), a thermoresponsive component that acts as both macromer and structure-directing amphiphile. P84DA facilitates changes in membrane pore size with temperature due to its thermoresponsiveness when it is in contact with water. Furthermore, the precursor contains acrylic acid (AAc) as the charged component, which upon copolymerization with P84DA, not only enables ion separation through Donnan exclusion but also imparts pH-responsive behavior for the separation of ionic species. The membrane performance is studied and compared with a commercial NF membrane (NF270). We show that the synthesized NF membrane has separation properties adjustable with temperature and pH with exceptional resistance to fouling by various solutes due to its highly hydrophilic surface. Furthermore, the membrane shows an outstanding sulfate over chloride ion selectivity, which is a requirement for salt fractionation applications. Deducted from separate experiments, the ideal chloride/sulfate selectivity for magnesium cation is about 2.38 at low ionic strengths. This study is done on a model system to show the capability of incorporating pH-responsiveness in LLC templated membranes, in which the pH-responsive range can be designed by changing the charged groups of comonomer in the formulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-assembled nanofiltration membranes with thermo- and pH-responsive behavior

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Observation of Zero-Field Transverse Resistance in AlO x / SrTi O 3 Interface Devices

Domain walls in AlO x =SrTiO 3 (AlO x =STO) interface devices at low temperatures give a rise to a new signature in the electrical transport of two-dimensional carrier gases formed at the surfaces or interfaces of STO-based heterostructures: a finite transverse resistance observed in Hall bars in zero external magnetic field. This transverse resistance depends on the local domain wall configuration and hence changes with temperature, gate voltage, thermal cycling, and position along the sample and can even change sign as a function of these parameters. The transverse resistance is observed below ≃70 K but grows and changes significantly below ≃40 K, the temperature at which the domain walls become increasingly polar. Surprisingly, the transverse resistance is much larger in (111) oriented heterostructures in comparison to (001) oriented heterostructures. Measurements of the capacitance between the conducting interface and an electrode applied to the substrate, which reflect the dielectric constant of the STO, indicate that this difference may be related to the greater variation of the temperature-dependent dielectric constant with electric field when the electric field is applied in the [111] direction. Further, the finite transverse resistance can be explained inhomogeneous current flow due to the preferential transport of current along domain walls that are askew to the nominal direction of the injected current.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Plasma-parameter dependence of ro-vibrational temperatures for H 2 in LHD divertor

We analyzed a thousand visible spectra of Fulcher-α band measured for divertor plasmas in Large Helical Device. With a coronal model and Bayesian inference, the population distribution of hydrogen molecule in the electronic ground state was estimated. The non-thermal population distribution was recovered with a two-temperature model, which has two sets of rotational and vibrational temperatures, as well as their mixture coefficient. The lower rotational temperature significantly changes according to the plasma parameters. Its nearly linear dependence on the electron density was found, which is consistent with previous works. The lower vibrational temperature also shows a small density dependence, as reported by a previous work. On the other hand, the higher rotational and vibrational temperatures as well as the mixture coefficient only show slight changes over the broad range of plasma parameters. These population parameters show a significant correlation; with higher electron density, all the temperatures and the fraction of the higher-temperature component increase simultaneously. In conclusion, this suggests that the electron impact plays an important role to determine the population distribution.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Risks to Freshwater Subsistence Fisheries in Arctic Alaska: Insights and Uncertainty from Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus

Arctic freshwater ecosystems and fish populations are largely shaped by seasonal and long-term watershed hydrology. In this paper, we hypothesize how changing air temperature and precipitation will alter freeze and thaw processes, hydrology, and instream habitat to assess potential indirect effects, such as the change to the foraging and behavioral ecology, on Arctic fishes, using Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus as an indicator species. Climate change is expected to continue to alter hydrologic pathways, flow regimes, and, therefore, habitat suitability, connectivity, and availability for fishes. Warming and lengthening of the growing season will likely increase fish growth rates; however, the exceedance of threshold stream temperatures will likely increase physiological stress and alter life histories. We expect these changes to have mixed effects on Arctic subsistence fishes and fisheries. Management and conservation approaches focused on preserving the processes that create heterogeneity in aquatic habitats, genes, and communities will help maintain the resilience of Broad Whitefish and other important subsistence fisheries. Long-term effects are uncertain, so filling scientific knowledge gaps, such as identifying important habitats or increasing knowledge of abiotic variables in priority watersheds, is key to understanding and potentially mitigating likely impacts to Arctic fishes in a rapidly changing landscape.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Strong Metal–Support Interaction (SMSI) Affects Catalytic Alcohol Conversion

Strong metal–support interactions (SMSIs) and catalyst deactivation have been heavily researched for decades by the catalysis community. The promotion of SMSIs in supported metal oxides is commonly associated with H 2 treatment at high temperature (>500 °C), and catalyst deactivation is commonly attributed to sintering, leaching of the active metal, and overoxidation of the metal, as well as strong adsorption of reaction intermediates. Alcohols can reduce metal oxides, and thus here we have hypothesized that catalytic conversion of alcohols can promote SMSIs in situ . In this work we show, via IR spectroscopy of CO adsorption and electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS), that during 2-propanol conversion over Pd/TiO 2 coverage of Pd sites occurs due to SMSIs at low reaction temperatures (as low as ~ 190 °C). The emergence of SMSIs during the reaction ( in situ ) explains the apparent catalyst deactivation when the reaction temperature is varied. A steady-state isotopic transient kinetic analysis (SSITKA) shows that the intrinsic reactivity of the catalytic sites does not change with temperature when SMSI is promoted in situ ; rather, the number of available active sites changes (when a TiO x layer migrates over Pd NPs). SMSI generated during the reaction fully reverses upon exposure to O 2 at room temperature for ~15 h, which may have made their identification elusive up to now.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Medium-range atomic correlation in simple liquids. I. Distinction from short-range order

Physical properties of liquids and glasses are controlled not only by the short-range order (SRO) in the nearest-neighbor atoms but also by the medium-range order (MRO) observed for atoms beyond the nearest neighbors. In this article the nature of the MRO as the descriptor of point-to-set atomic correlation is discussed focusing on simple liquids, such as metallic liquids. Through the results of x-ray diffraction and simulation with classical potentials we show that the third peak of the pair-distribution function, which describes the MRO, shows a distinct change in temperature dependence at the glass transition, whereas the first peak, which represents the SRO, changes smoothly through the glass transition. Finally, the result suggests that the glass transition is induced by the freezing of the MRO rather than that of the SRO, implying a major role of the MRO on the viscosity of supercooled liquid.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗