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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Whole-Genome Clustering to Detect Geospatial, Temporal, and Functional Trends in SARS-CoV-2 Evolution

Current methods for defining SARS-CoV-2 lineages ignore the vast majority of the SARS-CoV-2 genome. We develop and apply an exhaustive vector comparison method that directly compares all known SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences to produce novel lineage classifications. We utilize data-driven models that (i) accurately capture the complex interactions across the set of all known SARS-CoV-2 genomes, (ii) scale to leadership-class computing systems, and (iii) enable tracking how such strains evolve geospatially over time. We show that during the height of the original Omicron surge, countries across Europe, Asia, and the Americas had a spatially asynchronous distribution of Omicron sub-strains. Moreover, neighboring countries were often dominated by either different clusters of the same variant or different variants altogether throughout the pandemic. Analyses of this kind may suggest a different pattern of epidemiological risk than was understood from conventional data, as well as produce actionable insights and transform our ability to prepare for and respond to current and future biological threats.

Jacobson, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of artificial neural network performance for classification of potato plants infected with potato virus Y using spectral data on multiple varieties and genotypes

Potato virus Y (Potyviridae, PVY) is a plant virus that poses a significant threat to potato producers on a global basis. The pathogen has disrupted seed potato supplies and negatively impacted yield and quality of commercial potato crops. The potato industry currently manages PVY infection levels via insecticide applications, regional seed certification programs that rely on field scouting to visually assess individual plants for infection status, and destructive and costly tissue sampling coupled with laboratory assays. Despite these efforts, PVY continues to confound potato industry stakeholders resulting in economic harm. Remote sensing and machine learning provide for the development of new tools to more accurately detect and spatially quantify PVY-infected plants versus the current state of the art. However, there is a need to understand how the occurrence of many different potato varieties impact the dynamics of developing models to detect potato plants impacted with PVY and their potential effectiveness. This study evaluates classification modelling outcomes using spectral datasets collected in different temporal and spatial environments (greenhouse and a production field) on multiple potato varieties consisting of labelled instances of plants infected with PVY and those not infected with the virus. A modelling framework was developed to support iterative modelling runs using artificial neural network (ANN) architectures configured as binary classifiers to develop sample populations to support statistical analysis on model performance using specific spectral subsets. When using spectral data to detect PVY-infected plants, ANN models achieved the highest mean accuracy of 0.894 on a single variety. Conversely, the same ANN model architecture only achieved a mean accuracy of 0.575 on a spectral data set representing 29 potato breeding lines. Additionally, statistical analysis indicates spectral regions including the red edge, near infrared and shortwave infrared contain more important spectral features for the ANN classifier introduced in this research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

3C-like protease inhibitors block coronavirus replication in vitro and improve survival in MERS-CoV–infected mice

Pathogenic coronaviruses are a major threat to global public health, as exemplified by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and the newly emerged SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We describe herein the structure-guided optimization of a series of inhibitors of the coronavirus 3C-like protease (3CLpro), an enzyme essential for viral replication. The optimized compounds were effective against several human coronaviruses including MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 in an enzyme assay and in cell-based assays using Huh-7 and Vero E6 cell lines. Two selected compounds showed antiviral effects against SARS-CoV-2 in cultured primary human airway epithelial cells. In a mouse model of MERS-CoV infection, administration of a lead compound 1 day after virus infection increased survival from 0 to 100% and reduced lung viral titers and lung histopathology. These results suggest that this series of compounds has the potential to be developed further as antiviral drugs against human coronaviruses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Designing resilient IoT and Edge Computing with federated tinyML

The rapid growth of the Internet of Things (IoT) and Edge Computing (EC) has brought significant conveniences to modern society but has also greatly expanded the cyber attack surfaces, particularly as these technologies are being increasingly integrated into critical systems such as power grids, healthcare, and smart homes. Here, to improve IoT/EC’s cybersecurity posture, we leveraged Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) by employing tinyML to monitor voluminous IoT data for cyber threats while addressing devices’ resource constraints, and utilizing Federated Learning (FL) to share local detection knowledge across the system while preserving privacy. Building on our three-layer architecture combining tinyML and FL to enhance autonomous cyber attack detection, this paper demonstrated that the architecture improves detection accuracy, reduces resource consumption, and enables lightweight, secure IoT device monitoring. These results were validated using the public N-BaIoT dataset as well as real IoT network traffic data collected under multiple attack scenarios from our testbeds. Additionally, we introduced an enhanced FL methodology with a novel preprocessing stage, including federated feature selection and global preprocessor construction, to address IoT/EC data heterogeneity. We developed a physical IoT testbed for attack simulations and data collection, implemented a tinyML-powered detector for realistic model validation, and also built a virtual testbed for scalable evaluations of FL models across diverse network environments.

Cognitive cyber↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Two Extraordinary AmLi Neutron Sources

Two legacy AmLi sources, MRC-101 and MRC-103, are routinely used for neutron detector characterization and testing campaigns that Pacific Northwest National Laboratory manages for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency within the U.S. Department of Defense. However, applicability of source measurement data has been substantially limited due to the lack of original manufacturer documentation and cross comparison to other sources. This paper summarizes results of the measurement campaign conducted to better quantify source radionuclide content, neutron energy spectrum and emission rate of the AmLi sources. The source characterization study consisted of three major consecutive measurement exercises. First, gamma spectrometry measurements using a high purity germanium detector were used to estimate the radionuclide content and potential impurities of the AmLi sources. Then neutron spectral measurements were taken to determine the unique neutron energy distribution. Finally, assessments of the total neutron yields of the sources were made with measurements in a neutron well counter. The neutron detection efficiency for these measurements was determined via detailed Monte Carlo modeling based on the neutron energy distribution measured with the rotating neutron spectrometer. The most exciting and unexpected finding of the study was a significant contamination of the source material with beryllium, contributing up to 17% to the total neutron emission rate and correspondingly changing the neutron energy spectrum. Also, the obtained lithium-only portion of the measured energy distribution of the sources was compared against several AmLi spectra previously reported by different researchers.

AWCC, AmLi, beryllium contamination, neutron spect↗
DOE OSTI2024

De novo design of miniprotein antagonists of cytokine storm inducers

Cytokine release syndrome (CRS), commonly known as cytokine storm, is an acute systemic inflammatory response that is a significant global health threat. Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interleukin-1 (IL-1) are key pro-inflammatory cytokines involved in CRS and are hence critical therapeutic targets. Current antagonists, such as tocilizumab and anakinra, target IL-6R/IL-1R but have limitations due to their long half-life and systemic anti-inflammatory effects, making them less suitable for acute or localized treatments. Here we present the de novo design of small protein antagonists that prevent IL-1 and IL-6 from interacting with their receptors to activate signaling. The designed proteins bind to the IL-6R, GP130 (an IL-6 co-receptor), and IL-1R1 receptor subunits with binding affinities in the picomolar to low-nanomolar range. X-ray crystallography studies reveal that the structures of these antagonists closely match their computational design models. In a human cardiac organoid disease model, the IL-1R antagonists demonstrated protective effects against inflammation and cardiac damage induced by IL-1β. These minibinders show promise for administration via subcutaneous injection or intranasal/inhaled routes to mitigate acute cytokine storm effects.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of Power Measurements Using Adaptive Filters

With the advent of smart grid concept, Internet of Things (IoT) and the deployment of smart meters, the cyberattack threats on power networks have increased due to the use of communication systems that can be accessed by adversaries. Attackers will have the ability to manipulate the outcomes of smart meters which in turn influence the core application of Energy Management System 9EMS): State Estimation (SE). Bad data analytic tools may fail to detect some attacks into measurements. Meanwhile, Machine Learning (ML) solutions have been proposed for detecting False Data Injection (FDI) attacks. However, there is a lack of ML time-series solutions presented in the state-of-the-art that is yet to be complex. In signal processing, time-series solutions do not only consider the signal, but also the statistics of the signal over time. Therefore, in this paper, a machine learning for time-series solutions is presented as an application to model the measurements of the power grid that are used in SE. The presented model takes into account adaptive linear and non-linear filters: Finite Impulse Response (FIR), and Infinite Impulse Response (IIR). The presented models are implemented and performed on the IEEE-118 bus system. The results indicate the advantage of applying those filters over the state-of-the-art machine learning solutions.

Hamad, Khaled↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring adversarial behaviour in cyber‐physical power systems using a Bayesian attack graph approach

Abstract Highly connected smart power systems are subject to increasing vulnerabilities and adversarial threats. Defenders need to proactively identify and defend new high‐risk access paths of cyber intruders that target grid resilience. However, cyber‐physical risk analysis and defense in power systems often requires making assumptions on adversary behaviour, and these assumptions can be wrong. Thus, this work examines the problem of inferring adversary behaviour in power systems to improve risk‐based defense and detection. To achieve this, a Bayesian approach for inference of the Cyber‐Adversarial Power System (Bayes‐CAPS) is proposed that uses Bayesian networks (BNs) to define and solve the inference problem of adversarial movement in the grid infrastructure towards targets of physical impact. Specifically, BNs are used to compute conditional probabilities to queries, such as the probability of observing an event given a set of alerts. Bayes‐CAPS builds initial Bayesian attack graphs for realistic power system cyber‐physical models. These models are adaptable using collected data from the system under study. Then, Bayes‐CAPS computes the posterior probabilities of the occurrence of a security breach event in power systems. Experiments are conducted that evaluate algorithms based on time complexity, accuracy and impact of evidence for different scales and densities of network. The performance is evaluated and compared for five realistic cyber‐physical power system models of increasing size and complexities ranging from 8 to 300 substations based on computation and accuracy impacts.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗
DOE OSTI2024

A graph embedding‐based approach for automatic cyber‐physical power system risk assessment to prevent and mitigate threats at scale

Abstract Power systems are facing an increasing number of cyber incidents, potentially leading to damaging consequences to both physical and cyber aspects. However, the development of analytical methods for the study of large‐scale power infrastructures as cyber‐physical systems is still in its early stages. Drawing inspiration from machine‐learning techniques, the authors introduce a method inspired by the principles of graph embedding that is tailored for quantitative risk assessment and the exploration of possible mitigation strategies of large‐scale cyber‐physical power systems. The primary advantage of the graph embedding approach lies in its ability to generate numerous random walks on a graph, simulating potential access paths. Meanwhile, it enables capturing high‐dimensional structures in low‐dimensional spaces, facilitating advanced machine‐learning applications, and ensuring scalability and adaptability for comprehensive network analysis. By employing this graph embedding‐based approach, the authors present a structured and methodical framework for risk assessment in cyber‐physical systems. The proposed graph embedding‐based risk analysis framework aims to provide a more insightful perspective on cyber‐physical risk assessment and situation awareness for power systems. To validate and demonstrate its applicability, the method has been tested on two cyber‐physical power system models: the Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) 9‐Bus System and the Illinois 200‐Bus System , thereby showing its advantages in enhancing the accuracy of risk analysis and comprehensiveness of situational awareness.

Sun, Shining↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emergency department visits in California associated with wildfire PM 2.5 : differing risk across individuals and communities

The threats to human health from wildfires and wildfire smoke (WFS) in the United States (US) are increasing due to continued climate change. A growing body of literature has documented important adverse health effects of WFS exposure, but there is insufficient evidence regarding how risk related to WFS exposure varies across individual or community level characteristics. To address this evidence gap, we utilized a large nationwide database of healthcare utilization claims for emergency department (ED) visits in California across multiple wildfire seasons (May through November, 2012–2019) and quantified the health impacts of fine particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) air pollution attributable to WFS, overall and among subgroups of the population. We aggregated daily counts of ED visits to the level of the Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) and used a time-stratified case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the association between WFS and relative risk of ED visits. We further assessed how the association with WFS varied across subgroups defined by age, race, social vulnerability, and residential air conditioning (AC) prevalence. Over a 7 day period, PM 2.5 from WFS was associated with elevated risk of ED visits for all causes (1.04% (0.32%, 1.71%)), non-accidental causes (2.93% (2.16%, 3.70%)), and respiratory disease (15.17% (12.86%, 17.52%)), but not with ED visits for cardiovascular diseases (1.06% (–1.88%, 4.08%)). Analysis across subgroups revealed potential differences in susceptibility by age, race, and AC prevalence, but not across subgroups defined by ZCTA-level Social Vulnerability Index scores. These results suggest that PM 2.5 from WFS is associated with higher rates of all cause, non-accidental, and respiratory ED visits with important heterogeneity across certain subgroups. Notably, lower availability of residential AC was associated with higher health risks related to wildfire activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Motivation and Design of the OCPP Security Service

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is conducting in-depth research aimed at exploring how zero trust security principles can be effectively applied to electric vehicle charging infrastructure. This investigation seeks to enhance the resilience and reliability of these systems against cyber threats, ensuring secure and uninterrupted access to charging services for electric vehicle users and electric supply. Zero trust is a security concept centered on the belief that system operators should not automatically trust users or systems based on their location, whether inside or outside the organization, but instead must verify everything trying to connect to their systems before granting access. A key aspect of the project is to demonstrate and validate zero trust approaches targeted to electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. It has been observed that both open-source and commercial solutions often overlook the specific protocols employed in managing EV charging stations and proceeded with a general, protocol-agnostic approach. While these strategies effectively block non-authorized routes to the charging infrastructure, they do not tackle the situations where attackers may exploit legitimate access channels, such as the inattentive operator model posited by the Idaho National Laboratory. To address this gap, this paper proposes and discusses a new security service targeted to the Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP), which is the de facto protocol for the management of charging stations and serves a critical role in the broader adoption of electric vehicles. The design and architecture of the proposed OCPP security service are discussed in detail, outlining how it aims to safeguard charging station management system (CSMS) functions. The service is particularly important in scenarios where the charging station operator (CSO), responsible for the maintenance and operation of charging stations, and the charging network provider (CNP), which manages the charging network's accessibility and billing, are separate entities. This distinction is crucial because CSOs and CNPs often have different priorities, objectives, and operational responsibilities, which may not always align perfectly. For instance, a CSO might prioritize uptime and customer satisfaction, while a CNP might focus on maximizing revenue and network utilization. Such misalignment can create security vulnerabilities, as each entity might implement different policies and standards, potentially leaving gaps in the overall security posture.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Complete Performance Comparison Between the Optimized Image Construction Algorithm (U-MBIR) and the Existing Reconstruction Algorithm for Detecting Defects and Damage in Concrete

Reinforced concrete (RC) is a composite material subjected to mechanical, thermal, and chemical loads throughout its service life. Because of these external stressors and the susceptibility of RC structural members to shrinkage and microcracking, the material degrades throughout its life cycle. This deterioration can lead to a decrease in member capacity and, ultimately, poses a threat to the structural integrity. Thus, it is crucial that the damage caused by aging and degradation be monitored and assessed at regular intervals throughout the material’s service life. Since coring of the material is typically not feasible for in-service structural systems, non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methodologies are used to assess remaining structural capacity. NDE methods enable surface and subsurface examination without damaging or degrading the medium. Moreover, RC is a critical component of nuclear power plants; thus, its safety and reliability must be thoroughly examined throughout the life cycle of the structural system. Ultrasonic measurements have been an industry standard for both surface and subsurface inspections. To this end, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has researched and developed advanced image reconstruction algorithms to capture internal damage. The results and discussion presented herein summarize the current state of the ultrasonic model–based iterative reconstruction (U-MBIR) algorithm developed at ORNL. More specifically, this report presents a comparison between reconstruction images produced via a widely employed ultrasonic NDE technique—the synthetic aperture focusing technique (SAFT)—and the ORNL-developed U-MBIR algorithm. These NDE methodologies are demonstrated using ultrasonic data collected from four concrete specimens. Overall, the U-MBIR algorithm eliminates artifacts and noise that are typically present within the SAFT reconstructions, and it shows defects and anomalies more clearly than the SAFT images. In conclusion, this algorithm is suitable for identifying concrete defects, although more improvements and optimization could be done to better define internal defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Centers and Digital Assurance Workshop 2 – Prioritizing Digital Assurance Challenges, Session 2

The second session of the TADA (Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance) Data Centers Cohort, held on November 10, 2025, focused on prioritizing digital assurance challenges at the intersection of data centers and the electric grid. Building on the foundational concepts introduced in Workshop 1, this session deepened the application of the Threat–Vulnerability–Consequence (TVC) framework and emphasized the urgency of addressing cybersecurity, supply chain integrity, and operational reliability. Participants explored the growing convergence of digital and physical systems, the expanding attack surface due to global supply chain dependencies, and the implications of AI-driven load behavior. Real-world incidents—including the Volt Typhoon campaign and vulnerabilities in Solarman and Deye platforms—were analyzed to illustrate the risks of unpatched systems, insecure APIs, and inadequate vendor oversight. Key themes included architecture and interface weaknesses, governance gaps, and human and procedural shortcomings. The workshop also examined the evolving regulatory landscape, highlighting new federal mandates around Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) compliance and large-load reliability standards. Through interactive exercises, stakeholders ranked and mapped digital assurance risks from their respective perspectives—utilities, operators, and vendors—laying the groundwork for mitigation strategies and shared accountability models to be developed in Workshop 3. Session 2 of 3.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 Evidence Accelerator: A parallel analysis to describe the use of Hydroxychloroquine with or without Azithromycin among hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant global threat. However, despite urgent need, there remains uncertainty surrounding best practices for pharmaceutical interventions to treat COVID-19. In particular, conflicting evidence has emerged surrounding the use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, alone or in combination, for COVID-19. The COVID-19 Evidence Accelerator convened by the Reagan-Udall Foundation for the FDA, in collaboration with Friends of Cancer Research, assembled experts from the health systems research, regulatory science, data science, and epidemiology to participate in a large parallel analysis of different data sets to further explore the effectiveness of these treatments. Methods: Electronic health record (EHR) and claims data were extracted from seven separate databases. Parallel analyses were undertaken on data extracted from each source. Each analysis examined time to mortality in hospitalized patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and the two in combination as compared to patients not treated with either drug. Cox proportional hazards models were used, and propensity score methods were undertaken to adjust for confounding. Frequencies of adverse events in each treatment group were also examined. Results: Neither hydroxychloroquine nor azithromycin, alone or in combination, were significantly associated with time to mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. No treatment groups appeared to have an elevated risk of adverse events. Conclusion: Administration of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and their combination appeared to have no effect on time to mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Continued research is needed to clarify best practices surrounding treatment of COVID-19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Growing Freshwater Lens in the Arctic Ocean With Sustained Climate Warming Disrupts Marine Ecosystem Function

One of the most robust changes in the hydrological cycle predicted by Earth System Models (ESMs) during the remainder of 21st century is an increase in the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration (P-E) in arctic and boreal regions. We explore the long-term consequences of this change for marine ecosystems in the Arctic Ocean using the Community Earth System Model forced with a business as usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. We find that by the year 2300 increases in freshwater delivery considerably reduce Arctic Ocean surface salinity, creating a freshwater lens that has far-reaching impacts on marine biogeochemistry. The expanding freshwater lens limits vertical nutrient supply into the euphotic zone by enhancing vertical stratification and accelerating surface lateral mixing with surface waters in the North Atlantic, which become increasingly nutrient depleted from weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The resulting increase in nutrient stress reduces marine export production in the Arctic Ocean by 53% in 2300 relative to the 1990s and triggers a shift in community composition with small phytoplankton replacing diatoms. At the same time, the seasonal timing of export production undergoes a 2-month forward shift, with the peak advancing from July to May. This suggests that the threat to food webs and higher trophic levels may intensify after the year 2100 as gains in productivity from sea ice loss saturate and freshwater impacts on nutrient stress continue to strengthen. Our analysis highlights the critical importance of changing terrestrial hydrology and land-ocean coupling as drivers of long-term biogeochemical change in the Arctic Ocean and the necessity of multi-century climate change projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deciphering Fingerprints of Stellar Nucleosynthesis Through Nuclear Reaction Rate Measurements and Isotopic Analyses of Stardust

Microscopic stardust grains, found in trace amounts in primitive meteorites, afford a unique opportunity to study stellar nucleosynthesis in the laboratory by measuring their heavy element isotopic compositions. Applying LLNL’s state-of-the art material characterization capabilities to these micrometer-sized grains yields large new datasets with unprecedented precision. However, the astrophysical models necessary to interpret the isotopic record require improved nuclear physics data to constrain stellar nucleosynthesis conditions. For example, the branch point in the s-process path at 95 Zr controls the relative amounts of heavier nuclides but is poorly understood. We conducted a coordinated effort across disciplines to combine a new determination of the neutron capture cross section of 95 Zr with the laboratory analysis of hundreds of stardust grains to yield a view into stellar interiors. We developed new methods to quantify multiple isotopic systems simultaneously (e.g., Zr, Ba, and W) in stardust grains and improved the determination of the neutron capture cross section of unstable 95 Zr via the surrogate reaction method. This interdisciplinary approach is allowing us to fill gaps in our understanding of the environments in which elements are produced while enhancing LLNL’s experimental and theoretical capabilities relevant to nuclear threat reduction missions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗