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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results from the instability of and also modulates the strength of the tropical-Pacific cold tongue. While climate models reproduce observed ENSO amplitude relatively well, the majority still simulates its asymmetry between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases very poorly. The causes of this major deficiency and consequences thereof are so far not well understood. Analysing both reanalyses and climate models, we here show that simulated ENSO asymmetry is largely proportional to subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) along the equatorial Pacific thermocline. Most climate models suffer from too-weak NDH and too-weak linear dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupling. Nevertheless, a sizeable subset (about 1/3) having relatively realistic NDH shows that El Niño-likeness of the equatorial-Pacific warming pattern is linearly related to ENSO amplitude change in response to greenhouse warming. Therefore, better simulating the dynamics of ENSO asymmetry potentially reduces uncertainty in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A quantitative framework reveals ecological drivers of grassland microbial community assembly in response to warming

Abstract Unraveling the drivers controlling community assembly is a central issue in ecology. Although it is generally accepted that selection, dispersal, diversification and drift are major community assembly processes, defining their relative importance is very challenging. Here, we present a framework to quantitatively infer community assembly mechanisms by phylogenetic bin-based null model analysis (iCAMP). iCAMP shows high accuracy (0.93–0.99), precision (0.80–0.94), sensitivity (0.82–0.94), and specificity (0.95–0.98) on simulated communities, which are 10–160% higher than those from the entire community-based approach. Application of iCAMP to grassland microbial communities in response to experimental warming reveals dominant roles of homogeneous selection (38%) and ‘drift’ (59%). Interestingly, warming decreases ‘drift’ over time, and enhances homogeneous selection which is primarily imposed on Bacillales. In addition, homogeneous selection has higher correlations with drought and plant productivity under warming than control. iCAMP provides an effective and robust tool to quantify microbial assembly processes, and should also be useful for plant and animal ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gene-informed decomposition model predicts lower soil carbon loss due to persistent microbial adaptation to warming

Abstract Soil microbial respiration is an important source of uncertainty in projecting future climate and carbon (C) cycle feedbacks. However, its feedbacks to climate warming and underlying microbial mechanisms are still poorly understood. Here we show that the temperature sensitivity of soil microbial respiration ( Q 10 ) in a temperate grassland ecosystem persistently decreases by 12.0 ± 3.7% across 7 years of warming. Also, the shifts of microbial communities play critical roles in regulating thermal adaptation of soil respiration. Incorporating microbial functional gene abundance data into a microbially-enabled ecosystem model significantly improves the modeling performance of soil microbial respiration by 5–19%, and reduces model parametric uncertainty by 55–71%. In addition, modeling analyses show that the microbial thermal adaptation can lead to considerably less heterotrophic respiration (11.6 ± 7.5%), and hence less soil C loss. If such microbially mediated dampening effects occur generally across different spatial and temporal scales, the potential positive feedback of soil microbial respiration in response to climate warming may be less than previously predicted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Abstract Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Field experiments show no consistent reductions in soil microbial carbon in response to warming

Soil microbes play an essential role in maintaining soil functions and services, but the dynamics of soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) under global climate change remain unclear. Recently, Patoine et al. combined a global MBC data set with Random Forest modeling and reported that global MBC decreased over 1992–2013, mainly driven by increasing temperatures. Contrarily, using MBC field observations from soil warming manipulation experiments and in-situ long-term measurements across the globe, we found that MBC showed no significant changes under soil warming. Our findings indicate that soil MBC is unlikely to have decreased significantly due to the global warming of 0.28 °C during 1992–2013, and that further mechanistic studies are needed to understand potential changes in MBC under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental warming and drying increase older carbon contributions to soil respiration in lowland tropical forests

Tropical forests account for over 50% of the global terrestrial carbon sink, but climate change threatens to alter the carbon balance of these ecosystems. We show that warming and drying of tropical forest soils may increase soil carbon vulnerability, by increasing degradation of older carbon. In situ whole-profile heating by 4 °C and 50% throughfall exclusion each increased the average radiocarbon age of soil CO 2 efflux by ~2–3 years, but the mechanisms underlying this shift differed. Warming accelerated decomposition of older carbon as increased CO 2 emissions depleted newer carbon. Drying suppressed decomposition of newer carbon inputs and decreased soil CO 2 emissions, thereby increasing contributions of older carbon to CO 2 efflux. These findings imply that both warming and drying, by accelerating the loss of older soil carbon or reducing the incorporation of fresh carbon inputs, will exacerbate soil carbon losses and negatively impact carbon storage in tropical forests under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Northern peatland microbial communities exhibit resistance to warming and acquire electron acceptors from soil organic matter

The response of microbial communities that regulate belowground carbon turnover to climate change drivers in peatlands is poorly understood. Here, we leverage a whole ecosystem warming experiment to elucidate the key processes of terminal carbon decomposition and community responses to temperature rise. Our dataset of 697 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) represents the microbial community from the surface (10 cm) to 2 m deep into the peat column, with only 3.7% of genomes overlapping with other well-studied peatlands. Community composition has yet to show a significant response to warming after 3 years, suggesting that metabolically diverse soil microbial communities are resistant to climate change. Surprisingly, abundant and active methanogens in the genus Candidatus Methanoflorens, Methanobacterium , and Methanoregula show the potential for both acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Nonetheless, the predominant pathways for anaerobic carbon decomposition include sulfate/sulfite reduction, denitrification, and acetogenesis, rather than methanogenesis based on gene abundances. Multi-omics data suggest that organic matter cleavage provides terminal electron acceptors, which together with methanogen metabolic flexibility, may explain peat microbiome composition resistance to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Threatened salmon rely on a rare life history strategy in a warming landscape

We report that rare phenotypes and behaviours within a population are often overlooked, yet they may serve a heightened role for species imperilled by rapid warming. In threatened spring-run Chinook salmon spawning at the southern edge of the species range, we show late-migrating juveniles are critical to cohort success in years characterized by droughts and ocean heatwaves. Late migrants rely on cool river temperatures over summer, increasingly rare due to the combined effects of warming and impassable dams. Despite the dominance of late migrants, other strategies played an important role in many years. Our results suggest that further loss of phenotypic diversity will have critical impacts on population persistence in a warming climate. Predicted thermally suitable river conditions for late migrants will shrink rapidly in the future and will be largely relegated above impassable dams. Reconnecting diverse habitat mosaics to support phenotypic diversity will be integral to the long-term persistence of this species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes

Antarctic shelf ocean warming affects melt of ice shelf/sheets and sea ice but projected changes vary vastly across climate models. A projected increase in El Niño variability has been found to slow future mid-latitude Southern Ocean warming but how this impacts the Antarctic shelf ocean is unknown. Here we show that a projected increase in El Niño variability accelerates Antarctic shelf ocean warming, hastening ice shelf/sheet melt but slowing sea ice reduction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Responses of soil organic carbon to climate extremes under warming across global biomes

The impact of more extreme climate conditions under global warming on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics remains unquantified. Here, in this study, we estimate the response of SOC to climate extreme shifts under 1.5 °C warming by combining a space-for-time substitution approach and global SOC measurements (0–30 cm soil). Most extremes (22 out of 33 assessed extreme types) exacerbate SOC loss under warming globally, but their effects vary among ecosystems. Only decreasing duration of cold spells exerts consistent positive effects, and increasing extreme wet days exerts negative effects in all ecosystems. Temperate grasslands and croplands negatively respond to most extremes, while positive responses are dominant in temperate and boreal forests and deserts. In tundra, 21 extremes show neutral effects, but 11 extremes show negative effects with stronger magnitude than in other ecosystems. Our results reveal distinct, biome-specific effects of climate extremes on SOC dynamics, promoting more reliable SOC projection under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Response of the Indian Summer Monsoon to Global Warming, Solar Geoengineering and its Termination

The response of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) to global warming, solar geoengineering and its termination is examined using the multi-model mean of eight global climate model simulations from G2 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. Under the global warming scenario, land-ocean temperature contrasts and low-level monsoon circulation progressively strengthen accompanied by enhanced precipitation over the Indian subcontinent. Notably, in the solar geoengineered scenario, marginal surface cooling is projected over the majority of the ISM region, and there is strengthening of both upper and lower level circulation. Upon the termination of the geoengineering, the climatic conditions temperature, precipitation, and winds — would abruptly change to what it would have been under the global warming scenario, and such abrupt change may cause devastating consequences.

Bhowmick, Mansi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Asian-Australian summer monsoons linkage to ENSO strengthened by global warming

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) used to affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and Australian summer monsoon (AusSM) precipitation in different ways but global warming may have changed it. This study built robust annual ASM (AusSM) precipitation reconstructions during 1588–2013 (1588–1999) to examine the ENSO-monsoon relationship and how it has changed. During the period of 1588–1850 when natural climate variability was dominant, the ENSO-monsoon and inter-monsoon relationship was weak and non-stationary. Since 1850, however, both the inter-monsoon and ENSO-monsoon relationships saw an enhancement and this trend has been persistent to the present day, suggesting the influence of anthropogenic climate warming. Further analysis of climate model projections found that global warming can strengthen the ENSO-monsoon association that, subsequently, acts to synchronize the ASM and AusSM variations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

From peak to plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold continents phenomenon

Abstract This study assesses the projected trajectory of Warm Arctic-Cold Continent (WACC) events in East Asia and North America through large ensemble simulation for the upcoming decades. It analyses the evolution of the geographical boundaries of threshold cold temperatures, revealing a significant northward shift as a sign of global warming’s impact on the southward advancement of Arctic cold air. While validating the intensification of the WACC phenomenon until the 2020 s, echoing earlier studies, the findings indicate a marked decrease beginning in the 2030s. If warming is not curbed, this shift suggests a critical modification in the WACC pattern, prompting a re-evaluation of existing theories and models for extreme winter weather events. The results have major implications, spurring communities impacted by WACC to anticipate future changes and encouraging the climate forecasting community to update conceptual models for improved adaptation and mitigation approaches.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal transport in warm dense matter revealed by refraction-enhanced x-ray radiography with a deep-neural-network analysis

Abstract Transport properties of high energy density matter affect the evolution of many systems, ranging from the geodynamo in the Earth’s core, to hydrodynamic instability growth in inertial confinement fusion capsules. Large uncertainties of these properties are present in the warm dense matter regime where both plasma models and condensed matter models become invalid. To overcome this limit, we devise an experimental platform based on x-ray differential heating and time-resolved refraction-enhanced radiography coupled to a deep neural network. We retrieve the first measurement of thermal conductivity of CH and Be in the warm dense matter regime and compare our measurement with the most commonly adopted models. The discrepancies observed are related to the estimation of a correction term from electron-electron collisions. The results necessitate improvement of transport models in the warm dense matter regime and could impact the understanding of the implosion performance for inertial confinement fusion.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observational constraint on a feedback from supercooled clouds reduces projected warming uncertainty

The increase of carbon-dioxide-doubling-induced warming (climate sensitivity) in the latest climate models is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud feedback. This is thought to be partly driven by a greater ratio of supercooled liquid-phase clouds to all clouds, termed liquid phase ratio. We use an instrument simulator approach to show that this ratio has increased in the latest climate models and is overestimated rather than underestimated as previously thought. In our analysis of multiple models, a greater ratio corresponds to stronger negative cloud feedback, in contradiction with single-model-based studies. We trace this unexpected result to a cloud feedback involving a shift from supercooled to warm clouds as climate warms, which corresponds to greater cloud amount and optical depth and weakens the extratropical cloud feedback. Better constraining this ratio in climate models – and thus this supercooled cloud feedback – impacts their climate sensitivities by up to 1 °C and reduces inter-model spread.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two-temperature warm dense hydrogen as a test of quantum protons driven by orbital-free density functional theory electronic forces

We consider a steady-state (but transient) situation in which a warm dense aggregate is a two-temperature system with equilibrium electrons at temperature Te, ions at Ti, and Te ≠ Ti. Such states are achievable by pump–probe experiments. For warm dense hydrogen in such a two-temperature situation, we investigate nuclear quantum effects (NQEs) on structure and thermodynamic properties, thereby delineating the limitations of ordinary ab initio molecular dynamics. We use path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) simulations driven by orbital-free density functional theory (OFDFT) calculations with state-of-the-art noninteracting free-energy and exchange-correlation functionals for the explicit temperature dependence. We calibrate the OFDFT calculations against conventional (explicit orbitals) Kohn–Sham DFT. We find that when the ratio of the ionic thermal de Broglie wavelength to the mean interionic distance is larger than about 0.30, the ionic radial distribution function is meaningfully affected by the inclusion of NQEs. Moreover, NQEs induce a substantial increase in both the ionic and electronic pressures. This confirms the importance of NQEs for highly accurate equation-of-state data on highly driven hydrogen. For Te > 20 kK, increasing Te in the warm dense hydrogen has slight effects on the ionic radial distribution function and equation of state in the range of densities considered. In addition, we confirm that compared with thermostatted ring-polymer molecular dynamics, the primitive PIMD algorithm overestimates electronic pressures, a consequence of the overly localized ionic description from the primitive scheme.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Demonstration of an x-ray Raman spectroscopy setup to study warm dense carbon at the high energy density instrument of European XFEL

We present a proof-of-principle study demonstrating x-ray Raman Spectroscopy (XRS) from carbon samples at ambient conditions in conjunction with other common diagnostics to study warm dense matter, performed at the high energy density scientific instrument of the European x-ray Free Electron Laser (European XFEL). We obtain sufficient spectral resolution to identify the local structure and chemical bonding of diamond and graphite samples, using highly annealed pyrolytic graphite spectrometers. Due to the high crystal reflectivity and XFEL brightness, we obtain signal strengths that will enable accurate XRS measurements in upcoming pump–probe experiments with a high repetition-rate, where the samples will be pumped with high-power lasers. Molecular dynamics simulations based on density functional theory together with XRS simulations demonstrate the potential of this technique and show predictions for high-energy-density conditions. Our setup allows simultaneous implementation of several different diagnostic methods to reduce ambiguities in the analysis of the experimental results, which, for warm dense matter, often relies on simplifying model assumptions. The promising capabilities demonstrated here provide unprecedented insights into chemical and structural dynamics in warm dense matter states of light elements, including conditions similar to the interiors of planets, low-mass stars, and other celestial bodies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving dynamic collision frequencies: Impacts on dynamic structure factors and stopping powers in warm dense matter

Simulations and diagnostics of high-energy-density plasmas and warm dense matter rely on models of material response properties, both static and dynamic (frequency-dependent). Here, in this work, we systematically investigate variations in dynamic electron–ion collision frequencies ν(ω) in warm dense matter using data from a self-consistent-field average-atom model. We show that including the full quantum density of states, strong collisions, and inelastic collisions lead to significant changes in ν(ω). These changes result in red shifts and broadening of the plasmon peak in the dynamic structure factor, an effect observable in x-ray Thomson scattering spectra, and modify stopping powers around the Bragg peak. These changes improve the agreement of computationally efficient average-atom models with first-principles time-dependent density functional theory in warm dense aluminum, carbon, and deuterium.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗