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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

An experimental cockpit display for TDWR wind shear alerts

The first successful ground-to-air data link and cockpit display of terminal Doppler weather radar (TDWR) wind shear warnings in real-time are reported. During the summer of 1990, wind shear warnings generated by the TDWR testbed radar at Orlando, Florida, were transmitted in real-time to a research aircraft performing microburst penetrations. Automatic delivery of TDWR wind shear warnings potentially result in decreased controller workload and improved pilot information. Pilot responses indicate that the information provided by the cockpit displays was useful in visualizing the location of wind shear hazards. The graphical display of microburst hazards provided better information than that currently provided by ATC verbal messages and pilot reports. This information was useful in assessing the microburst hazard, deciding whether to continue the approach, and planning escape maneuvers.

Campbell, Steven D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A method of wind shear detection for powered-lift STOL aircraft

A new wind shear warning system for powered-lift STOL aircraft was evaluated by using a flight simulator. Wind shear warning systems for CTOL aircraft have been designed to detect horizontal shear only. Because the approach air speed of STOL aircraft is lower than that for CTOL aircraft, STOL aircraft are more vulnerable to vertical wind due to (1) a gradient of horizontal shear that is smaller for STOL than for CTOL aircraft because of slower airspeed; (2) STOL aircraft spend longer time in a downdraft; and (3) vertical wind causes a more radical change in the STOL aircraft's flight path because of its lower airspeed. In order to detect the vertical wind, the wind shear warning system proposed calculates the difference between potential flight path measured on-board during shear traversal and trimmed flight path estimated from aircraft status. The most characteristic feature of this new system is that it utilizes only inertial information and pitot-static airspeed data; this yields a convenient means of on-board implementation. Simulation test results confirm that the new system can detect the vertical shear.

Funabiki, Kohei↗
NASA NTRS1998

Development of Algorithms and Error Analyses for the Short Baseline Lightning Detection and Ranging System

NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high-precision lightning location system to provide lightning-related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning- sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations (45th Weather Squadron, U.S. Air Force) where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 megahertz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. This document provides the basis for the design approach and data analysis for a system of radio frequency receivers to provide azimuth and elevation data for lightning pulses detected simultaneously by the LDAR system. The intent is for this direction-finding system to correct and augment the data provided by LDAR and, thereby, increase the rate of valid data and to correct or discard any invalid data. This document develops the necessary equations and algorithms, identifies sources of systematic errors and means to correct them, and analyzes the algorithms for random error. This data analysis approach is not found in the existing literature and was developed to facilitate the operation of this Short Baseline LDAR (SBLDAR). These algorithms may also be useful for other direction-finding systems using radio pulses or ultrasonic pulse data.

Starr, Stanley O.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The THOR Project-Reducing the Impact of Thunderstorms on Aviation and the General Public Through a Multi-Agency Effect

Thunderstorms are high impact weather phenomena. They also pose an extremely challenging forecast problem. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA), and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), have decided to pool technology and scientific expertise into an unprecedented effort to better observe, diagnose, and forecast thunderstorms. This paper describes plans for an operational field test called the THunderstorm Operational Research (THOR) Project beginning in 2002, the primary goals of which are to: 1) Reduce the number of Thunderstorm-related Air Traffic Delays with in the National Airspace System (NAS) and, 2) Improve severe thunderstorm, tornado and airport thunderstorm warning accuracy and lead time. Aviation field operations will be focused on the prime air traffic bottleneck in the NAS, the airspace bounded roughly by Chicago, New York City and Washington D.C., sometimes called the Northeast Corridor. A variety of new automated thunderstorm forecasting applications will be tested here that, when implemented into FAA-NWS operations, will allow for better tactical decision making and NAS management during thunderstorm days. Severe thunderstorm operations will be centered on Northern Alabama. NWS meteorologists from the forecast office in Birmingham will test the utility of experimental lightning, radar, and profiler data from a mesoscale observing network being established by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. In addition, new tornado detection and thunderstorm nowcasting algorithms will be examined for their potential for improving warning accuracy. The Alabama THOR site will also serve as a test bed for new gridded, digital thunderstorm and flash flood warning products.

Smith, Stephan B.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Examining the Pilot and Controller Performance Data When in a Free Flight with Weather Phenomenon

The present study investigated effects of weather related factors on the performance of pilots under free flight. A weather scenario was defined by a combination of precipitation factors (light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain or snow), visibility (1,4,8 miles), wind conditions (light, medium, or heavy), cloud ceiling (800ft. below, 1800ft above, and 4000ft horizontal). The performance of the aircraft self-separation was evaluated in terms of detection accuracy and detection times for student- and commercial (expert) pilots. Overall, the results obtained from a behavioral analysis showed that in general, the ability to recognize intruder aircraft conflict incidents, followed by the ability to acquire the spatial location of the intruder aircraft relative to ownership aircraft were judged to be the major cognitive tasks as perceived by the participants during self-separation. Further, the participants rarely used cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) during conflict management related to aircraft separation, but used CDTI highly during decision-making tasks. In all weather scenarios, there were remarkable differences between expert and student pilots in detection times. In summary, weather scenarios were observed to affect intruder aircraft detection performance accuracies. There was interaction effects between weather Scenario-1 and Scenario-2 for climbing task data generated by both expert- and student- pilots at high traffic density. Scenario-3 weather condition provided an opportunity for poor detection accuracy as well as detection time increase. This may be attributed to low visibility. The intruder aircraft detection times were not affected by the weather conditions during climbing and descending tasks. The decision of pilots to fly into certain weather condition was dependent in part on the warning distance to the location of the weather. When pilots were warned of the weather conditions, they were more likely to fly their aircraft into it, but mostly when the warning was not close to the weather location.

Nituen, Celestine A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Putting Safety First in the Sky

As a result of technology developed at NASA s Kennedy Space Center, pilots now have a hand-held personal safety device to warn them of potentially dangerous or deteriorating cabin pressure altitude conditions before hypoxia becomes a threat. The Personal Cabin Pressure Altitude Monitor and Warning System monitors cabin pressure to determine when supplemental oxygen should be used according to Federal Aviation Regulations. The device benefits both pressurized and nonpressurized aircraft operations - warning pressurized aircraft when the required safe cabin pressure altitude is compromised, and reminding nonpressurized aircraft when supplemental oxygen is needed.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2004

Context-Aware Intelligent Assistant Approach to Improving Pilot's Situational Awareness

Faulty decision making due to inaccurate or incomplete awareness of the situation tends to be the prevailing cause of fatal general aviation accidents. Of these accidents, loss of weather situational awareness accounts for the largest number of fatalities. We describe a method for improving weather situational awareness through the support of a contextaware,domain and task knowledgeable, personalized and adaptive assistant. The assistant automatically monitors weather reports for the pilot's route of flight and warns her of detected anomalies. When and how warnings are issued is determined by phase of flight, the pilot s definition of acceptable weather conditions, and the pilot's preferences for automatic notification. In addition to automatic warnings, the pilot is able to verbally query for weather and airport information. By noting the requests she makes during the approach phase of flight, our system learns to provide the information without explicit requests on subsequent flights with similar conditions. We show that our weather assistant decreases the effort required to maintain situational awareness by more than 5.5 times when compared to the conventional method of in-flight weather briefings.

Spirkovska, Lilly↗
NASA NTRS1992

Probability effects on stimulus evaluation and response processes

This study investigated the effects of probability information on response preparation and stimulus evaluation. Eight subjects responded with one hand to the target letter H and with the other to the target letter S. The target letter was surrounded by noise letters that were either the same as or different from the target letter. In 2 conditions, the targets were preceded by a warning stimulus unrelated to the target letter. In 2 other conditions, a warning letter predicted that the same letter or the opposite letter would appear as the imperative stimulus with .80 probability. Correct reaction times were faster and error rates were lower when imperative stimuli confirmed the predictions of the warning stimulus. Probability information affected (a) the preparation of motor responses during the foreperiod, (b) the development of expectancies for a particular target letter, and (c) a process sensitive to the identities of letter stimuli but not to their locations.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2001

Incorporation of EGPWS in the NASA Ames Research Center 747-400 Flight Simulator

The NASA Ames Research Center CAE Boeing 747300 flight simulator is used primarily for the study of human factors in aviation safety. The simulator is constantly upgraded to maintain a configuration match to a specific United Airlines aircraft and maintains the highest level of FAA certification to ensure credibility to the results of research programs. United's 747-400 fleet and hence the simulator are transitioning from the older Ground Proximity Warning System (GPWS) to the state-of-the-art Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System (EGPWS). GPWS was an early attempt to reduce or eliminate Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT). Basic GPWS alerting modes include: excessive descent rate, excessive terrain closure rate, altitude loss after takeoff, unsafe terrain clearance, excessive deviation below glideslope, advisory callouts and windshear alerting. However, since GPWS uses the radar altimeter which looks straight down, ample warning is not always provided. EGPWS retains all of the basic functions of GPWS but adds the ability to look ahead by comparing the aircraft position to an internal database and provide additional alerting and display capabilities. This paper evaluates three methods of incorporating EGPWS in the simulator and describes the implementation and architecture of the preferred option.

Sallant, Ghislain↗
NASA NTRS2005

Pre-Launch GOES-R Risk Reduction Activities for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a new instrument planned for GOES-R that will greatly improve storm hazard nowcasting and increase warning lead time day and night. Daytime detection of lightning is a particularly significant technological advance given the fact that the solar illuminated cloud-top signal can exceed the intensity of the lightning signal by a factor of one hundred. Our approach is detailed across three broad themes which include: Data Processing Algorithm Readiness, Forecast Applications, and Radiance Data Mining. These themes address how the data will be processed and distributed, and the algorithms and models for developing, producing, and using the data products. These pre-launch risk reduction activities will accelerate the operational and research use of the GLM data once GOES-R begins on-orbit operations. The GLM will provide unprecedented capabilities for tracking thunderstorms and earlier warning of impending severe and hazardous weather threats. By providing direct information on lightning initiation, propagation, extent, and rate, the GLM will also capture the updraft dynamics and life cycle of convective storms, as well as internal ice precipitation processes. The GLM provides information directly from the heart of the thunderstorm as opposed to cloud-top only. Nowcasting applications enabled by the GLM data will expedite the warning and response time of emergency management systems, improve the dispatch of electric power utility repair crews, and improve airline routing around thunderstorms thereby improving safety and efficiency, saving fuel and reducing delays. The use of GLM data will assist the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Forest Service in quickly detecting lightning ground strikes that have a high probability of causing fires. Finally, GLM data will help assess the role of thunderstorms and deep convection in global climate, and will improve regional air quality and global chemistry/climate modeling. The GLM has a robust design that benefits and improves upon its strong heritage of NASA-developed LEO predecessors, the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). GLM will have a substantially larger number of pixels within the focal plane, two lens systems, and multiple Real-Time Event Processors REPS for on-board event detection and data compression to provide continuous observations of the Americas and adjacent oceans.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Demonstration of a Retrofit Architecture for Intelligent Control and Diagnostics of a Turbofan Engine

A retrofit architecture for intelligent turbofan engine control and diagnostics that changes the fan speed command to maintain thrust is proposed and its demonstration in a piloted flight simulator is described. The objective of the implementation is to increase the level of autonomy of the propulsion system, thereby reducing pilot workload in the presence of anomalies and engine degradation due to wear. The main functions of the architecture are to diagnose the cause of changes in the engine s operation, warning the pilot if necessary, and to adjust the outer loop control reference signal in response to the changes. This requires that the retrofit control architecture contain the capability to determine the changed relationship between fan speed and thrust, and the intelligence to recognize the cause of the change in order to correct it or warn the pilot. The proposed retrofit architecture is able to determine the fan speed setting through recognition of the degradation level of the engine, and it is able to identify specific faults and warn the pilot. In the flight simulator it was demonstrated that when degradation is introduced into an engine with standard fan speed control, the pilot needs to take corrective action to maintain heading. Utilizing the intelligent retrofit control architecture, the engine thrust is automatically adjusted to its expected value, eliminating yaw without pilot intervention.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Should We Enhance the Observing Systems or Improve Coordination Among the Operating Agencies: What is Needed the Most for Security--A Philosophical Discussion

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomenas. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2006

Applying Advanced and Existing Sensors in Dealing with Potential Natural Disasters

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone s needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a prerequisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS1991

Method and system for monitoring and displaying engine performance parameters

The invention is a method and system for monitoring and directly displaying the actual thrust produced by a jet aircraft engine under determined operating conditions and the available thrust and predicted (commanded) thrust of a functional model of an ideal engine under the same determined operating conditions. A first set of actual value output signals representative of a plurality of actual performance parameters of the engine under the determined operating conditions is generated and compared with a second set of predicted value output signals representative of the predicted value of corresponding performance parameters of a functional model of the engine under the determined operating conditions to produce a third set of difference value output signals within a range of normal, caution, or warning limit values. A thrust indicator displays when any one of the actual value output signals is in the warning range while shaping function means shape each of the respective difference output signals as each approaches the limit of the respective normal, caution, and warning range limits.

Abbott, Terence S.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Pre-Launch Algorithms and Risk Reduction in Support of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R and Beyond

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical transient event detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous,full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornado activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 13 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies were completed in March 2007 and the implementation phase to develop a prototype model and up to four flight units is expected to begin in latter part of the year. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2B algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds (e.g., Lightning Mapping Arrays in North Alabama and the Washington DC Metropolitan area) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data provided to selected National Weather Service forecast offices in Southern and Eastern Region are also improving our understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and help to accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications.

Goodman, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2008

Pre-Launch Algorithms and Risk Reduction in Support of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R and Beyond

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical transient event detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational.The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous,full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornadic activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 13 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies were completed in March 2007 and the implementation phase to develop a prototype model and up to four flight units is expected to begin in latter part of the year. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2B algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sate]lite and regional test beds (e.g., Lightning Mapping Arrays in North Alabama and the Washington DC Metropolitan area) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data provided to selected National Weather Service forecast offices in Southern and Eastern Region are also improving our understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and help to accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications. Abstract for the 3 rd Conference on Meteorological

Goodman, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Pilot Behavior for Assessing Integrated Alert and Notification Systems on Flight Decks

Numerous new flight deck configurations for caution, warning, and alerts can be conceived; yet testing them with human-in-the-Ioop experiments to evaluate each one would not be practical. New sensors, instruments, and displays are being put into cockpits every day and this is particularly true as we enter the dawn of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). By modeling pilot behavior in a computer simulation, an unlimited number of unique caution, warning, and alert configurations can be evaluated 24/7 by a computer. These computer simulations can then identify the most promising candidate formats to further evaluate in higher fidelity, but more costly, Human-in-the-Ioop (HITL) simulations. Evaluations using batch simulations with human performance models saves time, money, and enables a broader consideration of possible caution, warning, and alerting configurations for future flight decks.

Cover, Mathew↗
NASA NTRS2010

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗