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DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying heat extremes in China attributed to rising greenhouse gases and declining aerosols since the 2010s

Rising temperatures have increased the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme temperature events over China in recent decades. The upward trends in heat extremes in China in the warm season (May–September) and their relationships with changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model results. Significant increasing trends in China are observed in daily maximum temperatures (TXx), heatwave frequency, and heatwave mean duration during 2011–2023, with increasing rates of 0.70 °C/decade, 3.77 d/decade and 0.31 d/event/decade, respectively. This study shows that 43 ± 3% of the TXx increases in China are attributed to the rising CO2 concentrations. Aerosol optical depth in China decreased at a rate of 0.054 per decade from 2011 to 2023 due to significant air quality improvements. The weakened aerosol cooling effect due to declining aerosols contributes 27 ± 3% to the observed TXx trend. In eastern China, where aerosol reductions were most significant, aerosol reduction even accounts for 79 ± 10% of the TXx increasing trend. The intensifying heat waves attributed to GHGs and aerosols are in accordance with the increasing extreme high temperatures. The results highlight the significant impacts of rising GHGs and decreasing aerosols on heat extreme events over China in recent years, emphasizing the need of considering both GHGs and aerosols to address the issue of intensification of heat extremes in a warming future.

Zou, Aili↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols’ climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols’ complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society’s ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Novel Machine Learning Algorithm for Planetary Boundary Layer Height Estimation Using AERI Measurement Data

Accurately determining the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is important since it can affect the climate, weather, and air quality. Ground-based infrared hyperspectral remote sensing is an effective way to obtain this parameter. Compared with radiosonde measurements, its temporal resolution is much higher. In this study, a method to retrieve the PBL height (PBLH) from the ground-based infrared hyperspectral radiance data is proposed based on machine learning. In this method, the channels that are sensitive to temperature and humidity profiles are selected as the feature vectors, and the PBLHs derived from radiosonde are taken as the true values. The support vector machine (SVM) is applied to train and test the data set, and the parameters are optimized in the process. The data set collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) from 2012 to 2015 is analyzed. The instruments used in this letter include Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), Vaisala CL31 ceilometer, and radiosonde. It shows that the root mean square error (RMSE) between the PBLHs calculated by the proposed method using AERI data and those from radiosonde data can be within 370 m, and the square correlation coefficient (SCC) is greater than 0.7. Compared with the PBLHs derived from the ceilometer, it can be found that the new method is more stable and less affected by clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mortality attributable to PM 2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018

In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), but few studies have quantified long-term outcomes, and none have used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we quantified the mortality burden for PM 2.5 exposure from California fires from 2008 to 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire PM 2.5 estimates. We used a concentration-response function for PM 2.5 , applying ZIP code–level mortality data and an estimated wildfire-specific dose-response coefficient accounting for the likely toxicity of wildfire smoke. We estimate a total of 52,480 to 55,710 premature deaths are attributable to wildland fire PM 2.5 over the 11-year period with respect to two exposure scenarios, equating to an economic impact of $\$432$ to $\$456$ billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related health impacts, suggesting that wildfires account for a greater mortality and economic burden than indicated by earlier studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ontologies at Work: Analyzing Information Requirements for Model Predictive Control in Buildings

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown significant potential for improving energy efficiency, indoor air quality and occupant comfort of buildings. MPC-based control algorithms have also shown the ability to shift loads and optimize for multiple objectives, including but not limited to reducing the green-house gas emissions, energy costs and peak demand. However, one of the main implementation challenges of these control algorithms is the integration and configuration effort needed to deploy a supervisory MPC controller in a building. By assigning standardized references to information sources and control points in buildings, existing studies have shown that semantic ontologies and corresponding queries have the potential to ease the deployment of such controllers. Yet, the use of semantic information to ease the deployment processes of MPC controllers is still limited. In this paper, we review three MPC experiments and synthesize the information requirements of these optimization problems. We then turn to existing and upcoming semantic ontologies such as Brick, SAREF and ASHRAE Standard 223 to represent these requirements, evaluating their potential to support the implementation of an MPC controller. This investigation concludes with a discussion of existing opportunities and open questions that the community should explore to support more streamlined MPC implementations.

Prakash, Anand Krishnan↗

DOE OSTI2020

OpenStudio Occupant-centric KPIs Reporting Measure v1.0

This is an OpenStudio measure that calculates and reports the occupant-centric key performance indicators (KPIs) for evaluating building energy performance from occupant-centric perspectives. The measure automatically calculate the KPIs in the following categories: (1) visual & lighting, (2) thermal (3) air quality, and (4) others.

Hong, Tianzhen↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fireworks on Weather Radar and Camera

High-sensitivity weather radars easily detect nonmeteorological phenomena characterized by weak radar returns. Fireworks are the example presented here. To understand radar observations, an experiment was conducted in which the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)’s research (3-cm wavelength) dual-polarization radar and a video camera were located at 1 km from fireworks in Norman, Oklahoma. The fireworks from the 4 July 2017 celebration were recorded by both instruments. The experiment is described. Few bursts recorded by the camera are analyzed to obtain the height of the explosion, its maximum diameter, number of stars, and the duration of the visible image. Radar volume scans are examined to characterize the height of the observation, the maximum reflectivity, and its distribution with height. The fireworks location is close to the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) that operates in single polarization at a 5-cm wavelength and monitors hazardous weather over the Oklahoma City airport. A third radar with data from the event is the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) located in Norman. It has a wavelength of 10 cm and supports technical developments at the Radar Operation Center. Reflectivity factors measured by the three radars are compared to infer the size of dominant scatterers. The polarimetric characteristics of fireworks returns are analyzed. Although these differ from those of precipitation, they are indistinguishable from insect returns. Radar observation of larger fireworks in Fort Worth, Texas, with a WSR-88D is included and compared with the observations of the smaller fireworks in Norman. We expect the detectability of explosions would be similar as of fireworks. Pinpointing locations would be useful to first responders, or air quality forecasters. We note a benefit of fireworks recognition in weather radar data is that it can prevent contamination of precipitation accumulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA)

To explore the various couplings across space, time and between ecosystems in a consistent manner, atmospheric modeling is moving away from the fractured limited-scale modeling strategy of the past towards a unification of the range of scales inherent in the Earth System. This paper describes the forward-looking MUlti-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA), which is intended to become the next generation community infrastructure for research involving atmospheric chemistry and aerosols. MUSICA will be developed collaboratively by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and university and government researchers, with the goal of serving the international research and applications communities. The capability of unifying various spatio-temporal scales, coupling to other Earth System components and process-level modularization will allow advances in both fundamental and applied research in atmospheric composition, air quality and climate and is also envisioned to become a platform that addresses the needs of policy makers and stakeholders.

Pfister, Gabriele G.↗

DOE OSTI2026

The UCAR Africa Initiative: Recent insights, challenges, and opportunities to foster collaborative research for environmental sustainability

Africa is increasingly being exposed to the negative impacts of climate and environmental change, while having less capacity to respond compared to other continents. The vulnerability partially results from unprecedented demographic growth, urbanization, and industrialization. However, the continent has still largely been underserved by the broader Earth System Science (ESS) community, as evidenced by the limited amount of ESS data and research that cover Africa compared to other areas of the world. Here we present the recent University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Africa Initiative that aims to enhance environmental sustainability in Africa by fostering international collaborative research partnerships co-led by African scientists. Specifically, we outline urgent challenges and opportunities identified through an international workshop in six areas of ESS namely (1) air quality and health, (2) weather, (3) climate, (4) land and water, (5) social science perspectives, and (6) developing equitable collaboration and sustainable infrastructure. We highlight examples of successful partnerships and conclude with recommendations to advance collaborative, actionable ESS research that addresses Africa’s critical environmental challenges.

African weather and land variability↗

DOE OSTI2019

Identification and Characterization of Persistent Cold Pool Events from Temperature and Wind Profilers in the Columbia River Basin

Cold pool events occur when deep layers of stable, cold air remain trapped in a valley or basin for multiple days, without mixing out from daytime heating. With large impacts on air quality, freezing events, and es-pecially on wind energy production, they are often poorly forecast by modern mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Understanding the characteristics of cold pools is, therefore, important to provide more accurate forecasts. This study analyzes cold pool characteristics with data collected during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), which took place in the Columbia River basin and Gorge of Oregon and Washington from fall 2015 until spring 2017. A subset of the instrumentation included three microwave radiometer pro?lers, six radar wind pro?lers with radio acoustic sounding systems, and seven sodars, which together provided seven sites with collocated vertical pro?les of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction. Using these collocated observations, we developed a set of criteria to determine if a cold pool was present based on stability, wind speed, direction, and temporal continuity, and then developed an automated algorithm based on these criteria to identify all cold pool events over the 18 months of the ?eld project. Characteristics of these events are described, including statistics of the wind speed distributions and pro?les, stability conditions, cold pool depths, and descent rates of the cold pool top. The goal of this study is a better understanding of these characteristics and their processes to ultimately lead to improved physical parameterizations in NWP models, and consequently improve forecasts of cold pool events in the study region as well at other locations that experiences similar events.

McCaffrey, Katherine L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying the Thermodynamic Impacts on the Atmospheric Boundary Layer due to the Sea Breeze in the Coastal Houston Region

The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is unique in coastal regions because of kinematic and thermodynamic influences from continental and marine environments. Sea-breeze (SB) circulations act to equilibrate the land–sea temperature gradient through advecting marine air onshore. The strength of the SB varies in terms of stability, temperature, and moisture advection and influences air quality and weather forecasts. The Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) collected a wealth of data on coastal boundary layer evolution, including observations from uncrewed aerial systems (UASs). Vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and winds were collected by the OU CopterSonde UAS from June to September in the coastal region of Houston. These profiles offer 5-m vertical resolution, on average, every 30 min through diurnal transitions, SB events, and nearby deep convection. During the campaign, CopterSonde observations were gathered through 17 SB events, six of which led to convection initiation. The UAS data can resolve the thermodynamic evolution and interactions between the SB and the preexisting convective boundary layer. Results show large variability across observed SBs and their impacts on temperature and moisture. The intensity of thermodynamic changes depends on the time of sea-breeze passage and influence from the Galveston Bay Breeze, a secondary marine circulation commonly observed in this region. In quantifying the spectrum of SB impacts, equivalent potential temperature θ e is used to contextualize its role in convection initiation and evolution. In conclusion, while all SBs tend to increase θ e from moisture advection, the rate and timing of the θ e rise can distinguish convective from nonconvective cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Children, Income, and the Impact of Home Delivery on Household Shopping Trips

Expanding e-commerce and delivery benefit consumers through increased flexibility and convenience. However, there is a potential impact on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by delivery and personal vehicles, and the resulting energy consumption, air quality, and congestion. Delivery trips could replace personal vehicle trips, but, if not a replacement, could add to (or supplement) shopping-related VMT for a given household. Here, we examined the benefits of e-commerce to consumers and the impact on personal shopping trips, and how these differed across item types, household child status, and income. We found that high-income households and households with children cared relatively more about time saving from deliveries. We found that, on average, deliveries substituted for 12% of vehicle shopping trips, but supplemented personal shopping trips for 9% of purchase deliveries. Underlying these averages were two main types of households: those for whom all deliveries substitute for trips (between 55% and 70% of households) and those for whom all deliveries supplement trips (between 20% and 35% of households). There was significant heterogeneity across households with and without children and with high or low incomes with respect to the use of delivery. Although time savings were more likely to motivate higher-income households and households with children to use delivery, this did not translate through to these households substituting for more of their trips; deliveries of prepared meals for both these categories of household were relatively more likely (15% for households with children, and 12% for higher-income households) to supplement, and not substitute for, personal trips.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coupling of high-resolution mass spectrometer and photosynthesis system for comprehensive leaf volatile metabolite profiling

Background Leaf-level biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions represent a major source of organic gases in the atmosphere, influencing both climate and air quality. These emissions are strongly driven by environmental perturbations, which affect individual plant- to ecosystem-level processes. Uncovering all the BVOCs and understanding how their emissions respond to altered environmental conditions provide critical insights into vegetation-driven changes in atmospheric chemistry. We developed a tandem instrumentation setup that integrates a proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS) with parts-per-trillion detection limits and a photosynthetic infrared gas exchange system for the untargeted survey of all the BVOCs. This novel system enables simultaneous, real-time monitoring of BVOC emissions and photosynthetic parameters at the leaf level, offering new opportunities to disentangle the physiological and environmental drivers of VOC release. Furthermore, we established the VOC Analysis and Processing Optimization Resource (VAPOR), an open-access software tool designed for rapid data post-processing and the analysis of the variability of hundreds of BVOCs. We assessed the performance of the tandem system under varying background conditions, using standard gas mixtures and a range of environmental factors. Results Blank emissions were substantially lower for major BVOCs (e.g., isoprene) compared to those observed in plant emissions. Despite this, the observation of background-level VOCs highlights the importance of routinely acquiring and accounting for blank measurements in analyses using the coupled instrumentation. Introduction of known VOC concentrations to the system demonstrated a linear response across different compounds with varying molecular compositions, indicating minimal gas loss regardless of chemical moieties within the coupled instrumentation. We applied the optimized system to investigate the physiological mechanisms driving BVOC emissions across different genotypes of poplar and pennycress. The high mass resolution capabilities of the PTR-ToF-MS, coupled with comprehensive VAPOR-driven data analysis, enabled the identification of several important BVOCs, including methanol and methanethiol; these BVOCs displayed substantial variation across pennycress genotypes and showed concentrations ~ 100–350% higher than the blank. Moreover, isoprene emissions varied significantly among poplar genotypes grown in different potting media. Conclusions Tandem instrumentation offers a powerful tool for profiling volatile molecular markers and elucidating their genetic and environmental underpinnings. This approach enhances our ability to predict BVOC emissions in response to genotype by environmental interactions and contributes to a deeper understanding of vegetation responses to environmental changes.

Biogenic volatile organic compounds↗

DOE OSTI2026

2013-2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey

The 2013-2014 Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey obtained behavior data for regional travel demand modeling. The planning region in Alaska comprised the North Star Borough—known as the PM2.5 nonattainment region—and included the cities of Fairbanks and North Pole. The Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities sponsored the survey, which was conducted by Westat. Data collection occurred in two phases: fall 2013 and winter 2014. The first phase employed address-based sampling to recruit more than 1,700 households for a one-day personal travel survey and a subsample participated with global position system (GPS) and on-board diagnostic (OBD) loggers installed in their vehicles (282 vehicles) for one week. The purpose of phase one was to better understand the impact of vehicle emissions on air quality in the PM2.5 nonattainment region. Many of the households participating in the vehicle GPS/OBD portion of phase one were asked to participate in phase two.

1Hz data↗

DOE OSTI2026

2001 Atlanta Household Travel Survey

The 2001 Atlanta Household Travel Survey collected demographic, socioeconomic, and travel information on work and non-work travel behavior for a 48-hour travel period. The study was conducted on behalf of the Atlanta Regional Commission, and it is an essential element in the transportation planning and modeling efforts for the 13-county Atlanta region. The main objective of the study was to produce data that could be used to develop and calibrate travel demand models for use in travel forecasting, land use planning, and air quality planning to improve the transportation system. The second component in the survey was the deployment of an electronic travel diary with person-based GPS and an accelerometer to collect health and activity information. Travel data includes trip generation, trip distribution, and modal choice. The survey recruited a total of 12,184 households to participate in the study. Of these, 8,069 households (66%) completed travel. The 8,069 households, when weighted, represent 21,323 persons, 14,449 vehicles, and 126,127 places visited from April 2001 through April 2002. This dataset is part of the Metropolitan Travel Survey Archive, which includes travel surveys from numerous public agencies across the United States and is archived by the Transportation Secure Data Center to ensure their continued public availability.

1Hz data↗

DOE OSTI2026

1998 North Front Range (NFR) MPO

The North Front Range Travel Survey was a comprehensive study of travel behavior throughout the north front range of Colorado. The primary purpose of the survey was to provide a picture of travel patterns and characteristics of travelers in the Denver region. The survey was part of four primary surveys under the Regional Travel Behavior Inventory—a collaborative effort among the Denver Regional Council of Governments in partnership with the Regional Transportation District, the Colorado Department of Transportation, and the Regional Air Quality Council. The survey, conducted from October to January, provided demographic and household-based trip information for household members age 16 and older from 13,348 households. A 24-hour travel diary was provided to respondents to record their travel.

1Hz data↗

DOE OSTI2026

2000 Knoxville Urban Area Household Travel Behavior Survey

This survey, conducted by NuStats, was a comprehensive study of travel behavior in Knox and Blount counties in the Knoxville urban area. The purpose of the survey was to collect weekday travel characteristics of household members (ages five and older) in the counties during a 24-hour timeframe. The data will be used by the Knoxville Urban Area Metropolitan Planning Organization and local agencies to update transportation and air quality models and to identify transportation needs in the region. The survey was conducted between November 2000 and February 2001. In total, 2,674 households were recruited to participate in the survey. Of these, 1,538 households reported data from a one-day travel log, totaling 12,631 trips by 3,522 persons. Of all trips originating in the study area, three-fourths were made by persons residing in Knox County.

1Hz data↗

DOE OSTI2026

2008 East Tennessee Household Travel Survey

The 2008 East Tennessee Household Travel Survey, conducted by NuStats, was a comprehensive study of travel behavior in Knox, Blount, Anderson, Jefferson, Loudon, Roane, Sevier, and Union counties. The purpose of the survey was to collect weekday travel characteristics of households in the eight-county region during a 24-hour timeframe. The data will be used by the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization and local agencies to update transportation and air quality models and to identify transportation needs in the region. The survey collected demographic and travel data from a sample of 1,400 households between February and May 2008. In total, 12,012 trips were reported by 3,301 persons.

1Hz data↗