Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Applied Probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23

Processing and Probability Analysis of Pulsed Terahertz NDE of Corrosion under Shuttle Tile Data

This paper examines data processing and probability analysis of pulsed terahertz NDE scans of corrosion defects under a Shuttle tile. Pulsed terahertz data collected from an aluminum plate with fabricated corrosion defects and covered with a Shuttle tile is presented. The corrosion defects imaged were fabricated by electrochemically etching areas of various diameter and depth in the plate. In this work, the aluminum plate echo signal is located in the terahertz time-of-flight data and a threshold is applied to produce a binary image of sample features. Feature location and area are examined and identified as corrosion through comparison with the known defect layout. The results are tabulated with hit, miss, or false call information for a probability of detection analysis that is used to identify an optimal processing threshold.

Anastasi, Robert F.↗

Enhanced Carbon‐Carbon Coupling at Interfaces with Abrupt Coordination Number Changes

Abstract Cu‐catalyzed electrochemical CO 2 reduction reaction (CO 2 RR) produces multi‐carbon (C 2+ ) chemicals with considerable selectivities and activities, yet required high overpotentials impede its practical application. Here, we design interfaces with abrupt coordination number (CN) changes that greatly reduce the applied potential for achieving high C 2+ Faradaic efficiency (FE). Encouraged by the mechanistic finding that the coupling between *CO and *CO(H) is the most probable C−C bond formation path, we use Cu 2 O‐ and Cu‐phthalocyanine‐derived Cu (OD−Cu and PD−Cu) to build the interface. Using operando X‐ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), we find that the Cu CN of OD−Cu is ~11, favoring CO* adsorption, while the PD−Cu has a COH*‐favorable CN of ~4. Operando Raman spectroscopy revealed that the interfaces with abrupt CN changes promote *OCCOH formation. As a result, the designed catalyst achieves a C 2+ FE of 85±2 % at 220 mA cm −2 in a zero‐gap CO 2 electrolyzer. An improvement of C 2+ FE by 3 times is confirmed at the low potential regime where the current density is 60–140 mA cm −2 , compared to bare OD−Cu. We report a 45‐h stable CO 2 RR operation at 220 mA cm −2 , producing a C 2+ product FE of ~80 %.

Chemistry↗

Nondestructive evaluation of structural ceramics

A review is presented on research and development of techniques for nondestructive evaluation and characterization of advanced ceramics for heat engine applications. Highlighted in this review are Lewis Research Center efforts in microfocus radiography, scanning laser acoustic microscopy (SLAM), scanning acoustic microscopy (SAM), scanning electron acoustic microscopy (SEAM), and photoacoustic microscopy (PAM). The techniques were evaluated by applying them to research samples of green and sintered silicon nitride and silicon carbide in the form of modulus-of-rupture bars containing seeded voids. Probabilities of detection of voids were determined for diameters as small as 20 microns for microfucus radiography, SLAM, and SAM. Strengths and limitations of the techniques for ceramic applications are identified. Application of ultrasonics for characterizing ceramic microstructures is also discussed.

Klima, Stanley J.↗

Monthly Oceanic Rainfall Derived from Space-Borne Microwave Data

A technique for estimating monthly oceanic rainfall rate using multi-channel microwave measurements has been developed. This technique is applied to the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data since 1987 to infer monthly rainfall for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). A modified version of this algorithm is now being applied to the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. There are three prominent features of this algorithm. First, the knowledge of the form of the rainfall intensity probability density function used to augment the measurements. Second, utilizing a linear combination of the 19.35 and 22.235 GHz channels to deemphasize the effect of water vapor. Third, an objective technique has been developed to estimate the rain layer thickness from the 19.35 and 22.23 5 GHz brightness temperature histograms, TMI data with better spatial resolution and 24 hour sampling (vs. sun-synchronized sampling, which is limited to two narrow intervals of local solar time for DMSP satellites) prompt us to study the similarity and difference between these two rainfall estimates. One year of rainfall data (January to December 1998) are used in this study. The mean differences of these two rain estimates are typically less than 15%. Statistical tests are administrated to evaluate the differences between rainfall estimates from SSM/I and TMI data. Differences between TMI and SSM/I rain estimates are discussed in the context of radiative transfer calculations and rainfall estimate algorithm.

Chang, Alfred T. C.↗

Theory of hydrophobicity: transient cavities in molecular liquids

Observation of the size distribution of transient cavities in computer simulations of water, n-hexane, and n-dodecane under benchtop conditions shows that the sizes of cavities are more sharply defined in liquid water but the most-probable-size cavities are about the same size in each of these liquids. The calculated solvent atomic density in contact with these cavities shows that water applies more force per unit area of cavity surface than do the hydrocarbon liquids. This contact density, or "squeezing" force, reaches a maximum near cavity diameters of 2.4 angstroms. The results for liquid water are compared to the predictions of simple theories and, in addition, to results for a reference simple liquid. The numerical data for water at a range of temperatures are analyzed to extract a surface free energy contribution to the work of formation of atomic-size cavities. Comparison with the liquid-vapor interfacial tensions of the model liquids studied here indicates that the surface free energies extracted for atomic-size cavities cannot be accurately identified with the macroscopic surface tensions of the systems.

NASA Center ARC↗

Predicting Ground Delay Program at an Airport Based on Meteorological Conditions

In this paper, we present two supervised-learning models, logistic regression and decision tree, to predict occurrence of ground delay program at an airport based on meteorological conditions and scheduled traffic demand. Such predictive capabilities can help the Federal Aviation Administration traffic managers and airline dispatchers to prepare mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of adverse weather. The models are applied to predict ground delay program occurrence at two major U.S. airports: Newark Liberty Intl. and San Francisco Intl. airports. The logistic regression model estimates the probability that a ground delay program will occur during a given hour. Decision tree, on the other hand, classifies an hour as a ground delay program or not based on the input variables. Results indicate that both models perform significantly better than a purely random prediction of ground delay program occurrence at the two airports. The logistic regression model performs better than the decision tree model. The degree to which various input variables impact the probability of ground delay program vary between the two airports. While the enroute convective weather is a dominant factor causing ground delay programs at New York airports, poor visibility and low cloud ceiling caused by marine stratus are major drivers of ground delay programs at San Francisco Intl. airport.

traffic flow management↗

Search for HH → bbτ⁺τ⁻ Using Run 3 Scouting Data Analyze b-tagging and tau-tagging Performance with Unified Particle Transformer

B-tagging and tau-tagging performances play an important role in the search for the rare event HH → bbτ⁺τ⁻. A transformer-based neural network, Unified Particle Transformer, is applied for both tagging tasks, and Run 3 proton–proton collision scouting data at center-of-mass energy of 13.6 TeV is used. The scouting data stream accepts events at a much higher rate compared to traditional triggers, but stores only the objects reconstructed in the trigger, no low-level detector information. Therefore, existing taggers trained for the offline event reconstruction cannot be used. Analysis of the SoftMax plots, ROC/AUC curves, confusion matrix, accuracy and losses are used to evaluate model performance. Specifically, the tagging efficiency of the signal and misidentification probability across multiple background processes are compared for varying working points. Different training samples with distinct distributions of jet flavors are utilized and related model performances are analyzed. Interpretability methods, such as Integrated Gradients, may further be applied to study the input features’ influence on the model’s decisions, providing insights into potential improvements.

Chen, Blair [Purdue U., West Lafayette; Fermilab]↗

Exploring the Connection Between Sampling Problems in Bayesian Inference and Statistical Mechanics

The Bayesian and statistical mechanical communities often share the same objective in their work - estimating and integrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) describing stochastic systems, models or processes. Frequently, these pdfs are complex functions of random variables exhibiting multiple, well separated local minima. Conventional strategies for sampling such pdfs are inefficient, sometimes leading to an apparent non-ergodic behavior. Several recently developed techniques for handling this problem have been successfully applied in statistical mechanics. In the multicanonical and Wang-Landau Monte Carlo (MC) methods, the correct pdfs are recovered from uniform sampling of the parameter space by iteratively establishing proper weighting factors connecting these distributions. Trivial generalizations allow for sampling from any chosen pdf. The closely related transition matrix method relies on estimating transition probabilities between different states. All these methods proved to generate estimates of pdfs with high statistical accuracy. In another MC technique, parallel tempering, several random walks, each corresponding to a different value of a parameter (e.g. "temperature"), are generated and occasionally exchanged using the Metropolis criterion. This method can be considered as a statistically correct version of simulated annealing. An alternative approach is to represent the set of independent variables as a Hamiltonian system. Considerab!e progress has been made in understanding how to ensure that the system obeys the equipartition theorem or, equivalently, that coupling between the variables is correctly described. Then a host of techniques developed for dynamical systems can be used. Among them, probably the most powerful is the Adaptive Biasing Force method, in which thermodynamic integration and biased sampling are combined to yield very efficient estimates of pdfs. The third class of methods deals with transitions between states described by rate constants. These problems are isomorphic with chemical kinetics problems. Recently, several efficient techniques for this purpose have been developed based on the approach originally proposed by Gillespie. Although the utility of the techniques mentioned above for Bayesian problems has not been determined, further research along these lines is warranted

Pohorille, Andrew↗

Sample size and sampling errors as the source of dispersion in chemical analyses

The paper describes a Monte Carlo model for simulation of two-dimensional representations of thin sections of some of the more common igneous rock textures. These representations are extrapolated to three dimensions to develop a volume of 'rock'. The model (here applied to a medium-grained high-Ti basalt) can be used to determine a statistically significant sample for a lunar rock or to predict the probable errors in the oxide contents that can occur during the analysis of a sample that is not representative of the parent rock.

Clanton, U. S.↗

Cosmic ray production curves below reworking zones

A method is presented for calculating cosmic ray production profiles below reworking zones. The method uses an input reworking depth determined from data such as signatures in the depth profile of ferromagnetic resonance intensity and input cosmic ray production profiles for an undisturbed surface. Reworking histories are simulated using Monte Carlo techniques, and depth profiles are used to determine cosmic ray exposure age limits with a specified probability. It is shown that the track density profiles predict cosmic ray exposure ages in lunar cores that are consistent with values determined by other methods. Results applied to neutron fluence and spallation rare gases eliminate the use of reworking depth as an adjustable parameter and give cosmic ray exposure ages that are compatible with each other.

Blanford, G. E.↗

The Voyager 2 scan platform anomaly

The two Voyager spacecraft were launched in the summer of 1977, flew past Jupiter in 1979, and reached Saturn in 1980 and 1981. The Voyager Attitude and Articulation Control Subsystem (AACS) controls the positioning of a scan platform on which scientific instruments are mounted. On August 26, 1981, it was discovered that the azimuth axis of the scan platform of Voyager 2 had not completed the commanded slew. The profile of the failed slew command resembled a similar scan failure on Voyager 1 on February 23, 1979. In that case, contamination of the output gear mesh in the azimuth actuator was identified as the most probable cause of the failure. The problem was solved by cycling the azimuth actuator until the contaminant broke down and smooth operation was restored. A similar treatment applied to the Voyager 2 problem failed. Details of the Voyager 2 anomaly investigation are discussed.

Marchetto, C. A.↗

A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench

A novel iterative technique, based on the concept of fault segmentation and computed using 2D static dislocation theory, for building models of seismicity and fault interaction which are physically acceptable and geometrically and kinematically correct, is presented. The technique is applied in two steps to seismicity observed at the Middle America Trench. The first constructs generic models which randomly draw segment strengths and lengths from a 2D probability distribution. The second constructs predictive models in which segment lengths and strengths are adjusted to mimic the actual geography and timing of large historical earthquakes. Both types of models reproduce the statistics of seismicity over five units of magnitude and duplicate other aspects including foreshock and aftershock sequences, migration of foci, and the capacity to produce both characteristic and noncharacteristic earthquakes. Over a period of about 150 yr the complex interaction of fault segments and the nonlinear failure conditions conspire to transform an apparently deterministic model into a chaotic one.

Ward, Steven N.↗

Probabilistic finite elements for fatigue and fracture analysis

Attenuation is focused on the development of Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM), which combines the finite element method with statistics and reliability methods, and its application to linear, nonlinear structural mechanics problems and fracture mechanics problems. The computational tool based on the Stochastic Boundary Element Method is also given for the reliability analysis of a curvilinear fatigue crack growth. The existing PFEM's have been applied to solve for two types of problems: (1) determination of the response uncertainty in terms of the means, variance and correlation coefficients; and (2) determination the probability of failure associated with prescribed limit states.

Belytschko, Ted↗

Fracture Tests of Etched Components Using a Focused Ion Beam Machine

Many optical MEMS device designs involve large arrays of thin (0.5 to 1 micron components subjected to high stresses due to cyclic loading. These devices are fabricated from a variety of materials, and the properties strongly depend on size and processing. Our objective is to develop standard and convenient test methods that can be used to measure the properties of large numbers of witness samples, for every device we build. In this work we explore a variety of fracture test configurations for 0.5 micron thick silicon nitride membranes machined using the Reactive Ion Etching (RIE) process. Testing was completed using an FEI 620 dual focused ion beam milling machine. Static loads were applied using a probe. and dynamic loads were applied through a piezo-electric stack mounted at the base of the probe. Results from the tests are presented and compared, and application for predicting fracture probability of large arrays of devices are considered.

Kuhn, Jonathan, L.↗

Reliability of a Series Pipe Network

The goal of this NASA-funded research is to advance research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction methods for improved aerospace and aircraft propulsion system components. Reliability methods are used to quantify response uncertainties due to inherent uncertainties in design variables. In this report, several reliability methods are applied to a series pipe network. The observed responses are the head delivered by a main pump and the line head at a desired flow rate. The probability that the flow rate in the line will be less than a specified minimum will be discussed.

Harris, Rodney↗

Observation and Simulations of the Backsplash Effects in High-Energy Gamma-Ray Telescopes Containing a Massive Calorimeter

Beam test and simulation results are presented for a study of the backsplash effects produced in a high-energy gamma-ray detector containing a massive calorimeter. An empirical formula is developed to estimate the probability (per unit area) of backsplash for different calorimeter materials and thicknesses, different incident particle energies, and at different distances from the calorimeter. The results obtained are applied to the design of Anti-Coincidence Detector (ACD) for the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on the Gamma-ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST).

Moiseev, Alexander A.↗

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III

This final report describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations.The tool includes climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Crawford, Winifred↗