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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Mathematical Exposition of an Industrial-Scale Linear Program

Industrial-scale models require considerable setup time; hence, once built, they are used in myriad ways to consider closely related cases. In practice, the code for these models frequently evolves without appropriate notational choices, largely as a result of the lengthy development time of, and the number of individuals contributing to, their formulation. This leads to inefficiencies and obfuscates model structures that might be leveraged to expedite solutions. In this paper, we advocate for an emerging literature on model formulation “best practices” and present the reformulation of a widely used industrial-scale linear program. The efficient mathematical expression of this linear program, used to plan capacity expansion in the energy sector, allows for greater transparency of model structures and enhanced ability to identify computational performance improvements, as well as a lucid interpretation of its solutions. This type of formulation is employed in several mathematical programming courses at our university as an example of the advantages of best practices; the model more broadly is used widely to inform policy in the U.S. energy sector.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tau Positron Emission Tomography for Predicting Dementia in Individuals With Mild Cognitive Impairment

An accurate prognosis is especially pertinent in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), when individuals experience considerable uncertainty about future progression. To evaluate the prognostic value of tau positron emission tomography (PET) to predict clinical progression from MCI to dementia. This was a multicenter cohort study with external validation and a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.0 (1.1) years. Data were collected from centers in South Korea, Sweden, the US, and Switzerland from June 2014 to January 2024. Participant data were retrospectively collected and inclusion criteria were a baseline clinical diagnosis of MCI; longitudinal clinical follow-up; a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score greater than 22; and available tau PET, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan less than 1 year from diagnosis. A total of 448 eligible individuals with MCI were included (331 in the discovery cohort and 117 in the validation cohort). None of these participants were excluded over the course of the study. Exposures included Tau PET, Aβ PET, and MRI. Positive results on tau PET (temporal meta–region of interest), Aβ PET (global; expressed in the standardized metric Centiloids), and MRI (Alzheimer disease [AD] signature region) was assessed using quantitative thresholds and visual reads. Clinical progression from MCI to all-cause dementia (regardless of suspected etiology) or to AD dementia (AD as suspected etiology) served as the primary outcomes. The primary analyses were receiver operating characteristics. In the discovery cohort, the mean (SD) age was 70.9 (8.5) years, 191 (58%) were male, the mean (SD) MMSE score was 27.1 (1.9), and 110 individuals with MCI (33%) converted to dementia (71 to AD dementia). Only the model with tau PET predicted all-cause dementia (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.80) better than a base model including age, sex, education, and MMSE score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77; P = .02), while the models assessing the other neuroimaging markers did not improve prediction. In the validation cohort, tau PET replicated in predicting all-cause dementia. Compared to the base model (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.82), prediction of AD dementia in the discovery cohort was significantly improved by including tau PET (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P < .001), tau PET visual read (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .001), and Aβ PET Centiloids (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .03). In the validation cohort, only the tau PET and the tau PET visual reads replicated in predicting AD dementia. In this study, tau-PET showed the best performance as a stand-alone marker to predict progression to dementia among individuals with MCI. This suggests that, for prognostic purposes in MCI, a tau PET scan may be the best currently available neuroimaging marker.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Device Performance of Emerging Photovoltaic Materials (Version 1)

Abstract Emerging photovoltaics (PVs) focus on a variety of applications complementing large scale electricity generation. Organic, dye‐sensitized, and some perovskite solar cells are considered in building integration, greenhouses, wearable, and indoor applications, thereby motivating research on flexible, transparent, semitransparent, and multi‐junction PVs. Nevertheless, it can be very time consuming to find or develop an up‐to‐date overview of the state‐of‐the‐art performance for these systems and applications. Two important resources for recording research cells efficiencies are the National Renewable Energy Laboratory chart and the efficiency tables compiled biannually by Martin Green and colleagues. Both publications provide an effective coverage over the established technologies, bridging research and industry. An alternative approach is proposed here summarizing the best reports in the diverse research subjects for emerging PVs. Best performance parameters are provided as a function of the photovoltaic bandgap energy for each technology and application, and are put into perspective using, e.g., the Shockley–Queisser limit. In all cases, the reported data correspond to published and/or properly described certified results, with enough details provided for prospective data reproduction. Additionally, the stability test energy yield is included as an analysis parameter among state‐of‐the‐art emerging PVs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supramolecular Self-Assembled Multi-Electron-Acceptor Organic Molecule as High-Performance Cathode Material for Li-Ion Batteries

Organic electrode materials possess many advantages such as low toxicity, sustainability, and chemical/structural tunability toward high energy density. However, to compete with inorganic-based compounds, crucial aspects such as redox potential, capacity, cycling stability, and electronic conductivity need to be improved. Herein, a comprehensive strategy on the molecular design of small organic electron-acceptor-molecule—hexaazatrianthranylene (HATA) embedded quinone (HATAQ) is reported. By introducing conjugated quinone moieties into the electron-deficient hexaazatriphenylene-derivative core, HATAQ with highly extended π-conjugation can yield extra-high capacity for lithium storage, delivering a capacity of 426 mAh g -1 at 200 mA g -1 (0.4C). At an extremely high rate of 10 A g -1 (19C), a reversible capacity of 209 mAh g -1 corresponding to nearly 85% retention is obtained after 1000 cycles. A unique network of unconventional lock-and-key hydrogen bonds in the solid-state facilitates favorable supramolecular 2D layered arrangement, enhancing cycling stability. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the capacity and rate capability of HATAQ are found to be the best ever reported for organic small-molecule-based cathodes. Finally, these results together with density functional theory studies provide proof-of-concept that the design strategy is promising for the development of organic electrodes with exceptionally high energy density, rate capability, and cycling stability.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reimagining the $e_g$ 1 Electronic State in Oxygen Evolution Catalysis: Oxidation-State-Modulated Superlattices as a New Type of Heterostructure for Maximizing Catalysis

We report that the discovery of solid-phase, inexpensive transition-metal-based water oxidation catalysts is a central goal for renewable energy, and has led to a general consensus that a partially populated metal e g d-electronic state is desirable, leading to favorable catalysis for certain elements in specific oxidation states. In manganese systems, the key species is manganese(III), whose high-spin d 4 electronic configuration places an unpaired electron in the e g orbital, which is postulated to contribute to electronic and structural features that support catalysis. Based on density functional theory calculations, it is predicted that electron transfer would be facilitated by a catalyst with alternating low- and high-Mn III -content sheets, which positions neighboring band edges in closer energetic proximity. The preparation of such catalysts is demonstrated for the first time and it is shown that the catalytic activity is maximized in these systems over more uniform, but more Mn III -rich systems. The best catalyst possesses alternating high-and low-average oxidation state sheets with interlayer Cs + ions, and has an overpotential of 450 mV at 10 mA, which represents an improvement of 250 mV over the best unmodified synthetic potassium birnessites. Using scanning tunneling spectroscopy, bandgap modulations consistent with the theoretically predicted band edge shifts are detected.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Solar Cell Performance from Terahertz and Microwave Spectroscopy

Abstract Mobilities and lifetimes of photogenerated charge carriers are core properties of photovoltaic materials and can both be characterized by contactless terahertz or microwave measurements. Here, the expertise from fifteen laboratories is combined to quantitatively model the current‐voltage characteristics of a solar cell from such measurements. To this end, the impact of measurement conditions, alternate interpretations, and experimental inter‐laboratory variations are discussed using a (Cs,FA,MA)Pb(I,Br) 3 halide perovskite thin‐film as a case study. At 1 sun equivalent excitation, neither transport nor recombination is significantly affected by exciton formation or trapping. Terahertz, microwave, and photoluminescence transients for the neat material yield consistent effective lifetimes implying a resistance‐free JV‐curve with a potential power conversion efficiency of 24.6 %. For grainsizes above ≈20 nm, intra‐grain charge transport is characterized by terahertz sum mobilities of ≈32 cm 2 V −1 s −1 . Drift‐diffusion simulations indicate that these intra‐grain mobilities can slightly reduce the fill factor of perovskite solar cells to 0.82, in accordance with the best‐realized devices in the literature. Beyond perovskites, this work can guide a highly predictive characterization of any emerging semiconductor for photovoltaic or photoelectrochemical energy conversion. A best practice for the interpretation of terahertz and microwave measurements on photovoltaic materials is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Goldilocks Approach to Water Management: Hydrochannel Porous Transport Layers for Unitized Reversible Fuel Cells

Abstract This work presents a novel porous transport layer (PTL), the hydrochannel PTL, that enables improved water management and record high round trip efficiency in unitized reversible fuel cells (URFCs). URFCs require rapid transport of O 2 and H 2 O to provide high performance in both fuel cell and water electrolyzer operation, but cell design is complicated by conflicting water management requirements: electrolyzers perform best with high liquid water saturation, whereas fuel cells perform best when liquid water saturation is as low as possible while still maintaining effective ionomer hydration. The hydrochannel PTL circumvents this obstacle by providing hydrophilic channels for water transport through an otherwise hydrophobic PTL, enabling optimal performance in both fuel cell and water electrolyzer modes. Neutron radiography measurements of water content in both operating modes confirm that the hydrochannel PTL enables high performance due to its improved water management capabilities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Comparative Study of Active Learning Schemes for Nanophotonics Design

We present a benchmarking study of active learning (AL) schemes for designing planar multilayer nanophotonic metamaterials, where the design tasks are formulated as binary optimization problems. Different surrogate models, including factorization machine (FM), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and convolutional neural network (CNN), combined with different optimization methods, including exhaustive enumeration, discrete particle swarm optimization (DPSO), quantum annealing (QA), hybrid QA, and simulated annealing are studied. The benchmark cases investigated range from small problems with short binary lengths (N = 25) to large problems with N up to 100, focusing on the design of two classes of photonic structures, including antireflective coatings for the long-wavelength infrared region and transparent radiative coolers. For small problems, CNN coupled with DPSO in AL achieves the best performance. As N increases, FM with QA outperforms GPR and CNN. For FM-based AL, hybrid QA yields the best optimization results, particularly in high-dimensional cases (N = 100). These results demonstrate that the optimization method can significantly affect in AL performance as N increases, and that QA-based optimization can provide practical routes for mitigating the optimization bottleneck in high-dimensional problems.

Jung, Serang [Kyung Hee University, Korea]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimization of Magnesium‐Doped Lithium Metal Anode for High Performance Lithium Metal Batteries through Modeling and Experiment

Abstract Lithium (Li)‐magnesium (Mg) alloy with limited Mg amount, which can also be called Mg‐doped Li (Li‐Mg), has been considered as a potential alternative anode for high energy density rechargeable Li metal batteries. However, the optimum doping‐content of Mg in Li‐Mg anode and the mechanism of the improved performance are not well understood. Herein, density functional theory (DFT) calculations are used to investigate the effect of Mg amount in Li‐Mg anode. The Li‐Mg with about 5 wt. % Mg (abbreviated as Li‐Mg5) has the lowest absorption energy of Li, thus all the surface area can be “controlled” by Mg atoms, leading to the smooth and continuous deposition of Li on the surface around the Mg center. A localized high concentration electrolyte enables Li‐Mg5 to exhibit the best cycling stability in Li metal batteries with high‐loading cathode and lean electrolyte under 4.4 V high‐voltage, which is approaching the demand of practical application. This electrolyte also helps generate an inorganic‐rich solid electrolyte interphase, which leads to smooth, compact and less corrosion layer on the Li‐Mg5 surface. Both theoretical simulations and experimental results prove that Li‐Mg5 has optimum Mg content and gives best battery cycling performance.

Gao, Peiyuan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimization of Magnesium-Doped Lithium Metal Anode for High Performance Lithium Metal Batteries through Modeling and Experiment

Lithium (Li)-magnesium (Mg) alloy with limited Mg amount, which can also be called Mg-doped Li (Li-Mg), has been considered as a potential alternative anode for high energy density rechargeable Li metal batteries. However, the optimum doping-content of Mg in Li-Mg anode and the mechanism of the improved performance are not well understood. In this study, density functional theory (DFT) calculations are used to investigate the effect of Mg amount in Li-Mg anode. The Li-Mg with about 5 wt. % Mg (abbreviated as Li-Mg5) has the lowest absorption energy of Li, thus all the surface area can be “controlled” by Mg atoms, leading to the smooth and continuous deposition of Li on the surface around the Mg center. A localized high concentration electrolyte enables Li-Mg5 to exhibit the best cycling stability in Li metal batteries with high-loading cathode and lean electrolyte under 4.4 V high-voltage, which is approaching the demand of practical application. This electrolyte also helps generate an inorganic-rich solid electrolyte interphase, which leads to smooth, compact and less corrosion layer on the Li-Mg5 surface. Both theoretical simulations and experimental results prove that Li-Mg5 has optimum Mg content and gives best battery cycling performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

SEC ‐ SAXS / MC Ensemble Structural Studies of the Microtubule Binding Protein Cdt1 Show Monomeric, Folded‐Over Conformations

ABSTRACT Cdt1 is a mixed folded protein critical for DNA replication licensing and it also has a “moonlighting” role at the kinetochore via direct binding to microtubules and the Ndc80 complex. However, it is unknown how the structure and conformations of Cdt1 could allow it to participate in these multiple, unique sets of protein complexes. While robust methods exist to study entirely folded or unfolded proteins, structure–function studies of combined, mixed folded/disordered proteins remain challenging. In this work, we employ orthogonal biophysical and computational techniques to provide structural characterization of mitosis‐competent human Cdt1. Thermal stability analyses shows that both folded winged helix domains1 are unstable. CD and NMR show that the N‐terminal and linker regions are intrinsically disordered. DLS shows that Cdt1 is monomeric and polydisperse, while SEC‐MALS confirms that it is monomeric at high concentrations, but without any apparent inter‐molecular self‐association. SEC‐SAXS enabled computational modeling of the protein structures. Using the program SASSIE, we performed rigid body Monte Carlo simulations to generate a conformational ensemble of structures. We observe that neither fully extended nor extremely compact Cdt1 conformations are consistent with SAXS. The best‐fit models have the N‐terminal and linker disordered regions extended into the solution and the two folded domains close to each other in apparent “folded over” conformations. We hypothesize the best‐fit Cdt1 conformations could be consistent with a function as a scaffold protein that may be sterically blocked without binding partners. Our study also provides a template for combining experimental and computational techniques to study mixed‐folded proteins.

Cell Biology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ruthenium/Carbon Nanocomposites for Efficient Hydrogen Electrocatalysis: Impacts of Halide Residues

Ruthenium has emerged as a promising substitute for platinum toward the hydrogen evolution/oxidation reaction (HER/HOR). Herein, ruthenium/carbon composites are prepared by magnetic induction heating (300 A, 10 s) of RuCl3, RuBr3 or RuI3 loaded on hollow N-doped carbon cages (HNC). The HNC-RuCl3-300A sample consists of Ru nanoparticles (dia. 1.96 nm) and abundant Cl residues. HNC-RuBr3-300A possesses a larger nanoparticle size (≈19.36 nm) and lower content of Br residues. HNC-RuI3-300A contains only bulk-like Ru agglomerates with a minimal amount of I residues, due to reduced Ru-halide bonding interactions. Among these, HNC-RuCl3-300A exhibits the best HER activity in alkaline media, with a low overpotential of only -26 mV to reach 10 mA cm-2, even outperforming Pt/C, and can be used as the cathode catalyst for anion exchange membrane water electrolyzer (along with commercial RuO2 as the anode catalyst), producing 0.5 A cm- 2 at 1.88 V for up to 100 h, a performance markedly better than that with Pt/C. HNC-RuCl3-300A also exhibits the best HOR activity, with a half-wave potential (+18 mV) even lower than that of Pt/C (+35 mV). These activities are ascribed to the combined contributions of small Ru nanoparticles and Ru-to-halide charge transfer that weaken H adsorption.

Yu, Bingzhe↗
DOE OSTI2020

Camera settings and biome influence the accuracy of citizen science approaches to camera trap image classification

Scientists are increasingly using volunteer efforts of citizen scientists to classify images captured by motion-activated trail cameras. The rising popularity of citizen science reflects its potential to engage the public in conservation science and accelerate processing of the large volume of images generated by trail cameras. While image classification accuracy by citizen scientists can vary across species, the influence of other factors on accuracy is poorly understood. Inaccuracy diminishes the value of citizen science derived data and prompts the need for specific best-practice protocols to decrease error. We compare the accuracy between three programs that use crowdsourced citizen scientists to process images online: Snapshot Serengeti, Wildwatch Kenya, and AmazonCam Tambopata. We hypothesized that habitat type and camera settings would influence accuracy. To evaluate these factors, each photograph was circulated to multiple volunteers. All volunteer classifications were aggregated to a single best answer for each photograph using a plurality algorithm. Subsequently, a subset of these images underwent expert review and were compared to the citizen scientist results. Classification errors were categorized by the nature of the error (e.g., false species or false empty), and reason for the false classification (e.g., misidentification). Our results show that Snapshot Serengeti had the highest accuracy (97.9%), followed by AmazonCam Tambopata (93.5%), then Wildwatch Kenya (83.4%). Error type was influenced by habitat, with false empty images more prevalent in open-grassy habitat (27%) compared to woodlands (10%). For medium to large animal surveys across all habitat types, our results suggest that to significantly improve accuracy in crowdsourced projects, researchers should use a trail camera set up protocol with a burst of three consecutive photographs, a short field of view, and determine camera sensitivity settings based on in situ testing. Accuracy level comparisons such as this study can improve reliability of future citizen science projects, and subsequently encourage the increased use of such data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Isopropanol dehydration reaction rate kinetics measurement using H 2 O time histories

H 2 O formation during thermal decomposition of isopropanol was measured behind reflected shock waves at temperatures ranging from 1127 to 1621 K at an average pressure of 1.42 atm using a laser absorption technique. Of the five modern chemical kinetics models used to compare the H 2 O time histories, the model from Li et al (Combust. Flame 2019;207:171-185) showed the best overall agreement. Sensitivity and rate of production analyses using the Li et al model (as well as those from AramcoMech 3.0, CRECK, and Togbe et al (Energy Fuel. 2011;25:676-683)) showed unimolecular dehydration of isopropanol, iC 3 H 7 OH ⇌ H 2 O + C 3 H 6 (R1), is nearly the sole reaction controlling H2O production at early times, allowing for an a priori measurement of the forward rate constant k 1 . The Arrhenius expression k1 (s –1 ) = 2.60 × 10 13 exp(-31 120 K/T) was determined to represent best the data from this study. According to the models and previous experimental investigations, the pressure investigated is well within the high-pressure limit (HPL) for this reaction. Additional, higher-pressure experiments also confirmed the HPL assumption. An uncertainty analysis was performed by varying secondary reactions within their uncertainties and examining their effect on the overall prediction, establishing an uncertainty within ±20% for all but the highest temperature cases, which have a maximum uncertainty of ±40%. Experiments conducted with a radical trapper, toluene, showed little influence from radical chemistry, suggesting this estimated uncertainty is fairly conservative. Experimental data from Heyne et al (Z Phys Chem. 2015;229:881-907) were found to be in good agreement with the rate measurements from this study and, therefore, a second Arrhenius expression, k 1 (s –1 ) = 2.11 × 10 13 exp(-30 820 K/T), was found to represent both datasets well. This second expression has a larger temperature range of 976-1621 K. Here the present study provides the first high-temperature data collected for this reaction, adding to the limited data available for isopropanol in the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing mechanisms for microbial taxa and community dynamics using process models

Disentangling the assembly mechanisms controlling community composition, structure, distribution, functions, and dynamics is a central issue in ecology. Although various approaches have been proposed to examine community assembly mechanisms, quantitative characterization is challenging, particularly in microbial ecology. Here, we present a novel approach for quantitatively delineating community assembly mechanisms by combining the consumer–resource model with a neutral model in stochastic differential equations. Using time-series data from anaerobic bioreactors that target microbial 16S rRNA genes, we tested the applicability of three ecological models: the consumer–resource model, the neutral model, and the combined model. Our results revealed that model performances varied substantially as a function of population abundance and/or process conditions. The combined model performed best for abundant taxa in the treatment bioreactors where process conditions were manipulated. In contrast, the neutral model showed the best performance for rare taxa. Our analysis further indicated that immigration rates decreased with taxa abundance and competitions between taxa were strongly correlated with phylogeny, but within a certain phylogenetic distance only. The determinism underlying taxa and community dynamics were quantitatively assessed, showing greater determinism in the treatment bioreactors that aligned with the subsequent abnormal system functioning. Given its mechanistic basis, the framework developed here is expected to be potentially applicable beyond microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AAPM Truth‐based CT (TrueCT) reconstruction grand challenge

Background: This Special Report summarizes the 2022, AAPM grand challenge on Truth-based CT image reconstruction. Purpose: To provide an objective framework for evaluating CT reconstruction methods using virtual imaging resources consisting of a library of simulated CT projection images of a population of human models with various diseases. Methods: Two hundred unique anthropomorphic, computational models were created with varied diseases consisting of 67 emphysema, 67 lung lesions, and 66 liver lesions. The organs were modeled based on clinical CT images of real patients. The emphysematous regions were modeled using segmentations from patient CT cases in the COPDGene Phase I dataset. For the lung and liver lesion cases, 1–6 malignant lesions were created and inserted into the human models, with lesion diameters ranging from 5.6 to 21.9 mm for lung lesions and 3.9 to 14.9 mm for liver lesions. The contrast defined between the liver lesions and liver parenchyma was 82 ± 12 HU, ranging from 50 to 110 HU. Similarly, the contrast between the lung lesions and the lung parenchyma was defined as 781 ± 11 HU, ranging from 725 to 805 HU. For the emphysematous regions, the defined HU values were −950 ± 17 HU ranging from −918 to −979 HU. The developed human models were imaged with a validated CT simulator. The resulting CT sinograms were shared with the participants. The participants reconstructed CT images from the sinograms and sent back their reconstructed images. Further, the reconstructed images were then scored by comparing the results against the corresponding ground truth values. The scores included both task-generic (root mean square error [RMSE] and structural similarity matrix [SSIM]), and task-specific (detectability index [d’] and lesion volume accuracy) metrics. For the cases with multiple lesions, the measured metric was averaged across all the lesions. To combine the metrics with each other, each metric was normalized to a range of 0 to 1 per disease type, with “0” and “1” being the worst and best measured values across all cases of the disease type for all received reconstructions. Results: The True-CT challenge attracted 52 participants, out of which 5 successfully completed the challenge and submitted the requested 200 reconstructions. Across all participants and disease types, SSIM absolute values ranged from 0.22 to 0.90, RMSE from 77.6 to 490.5 HU, d’ from 0.1 to 64.6, and volume accuracy ranged from 1.2 to 753.1 mm3. The overall scores demonstrated that participant “A” had the best performance in all categories, except for the metrics of d’ for lung lesions and RMSE for liver lesions. Participant “A” had an average normalized score of 0.41 ± 0.22, 0.48 ± 0.32, and 0.42 ± 0.33 for the emphysema, lung lesion, and liver lesion cases, respectively. Conclusions: The True-CT challenge successfully enabled objective assessment of CT reconstructions with the unique advantage of access to a diverse population of diseased human models with known ground truth. This study highlights the significant potential of virtual imaging trials in objective assessment of medical imaging technologies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration and uncertainty quantification for Davis Equation of State models for the High Explosive PBX 9501 products

Abstract This paper investigates the uncertainty in the parameters used in the calibration of an Davis Equation Of State (EOS) for the detonation products of the High Explosive PBX 9501. The procedure sought to make use of all available information about this HE to inform the best set of calibration parameters as well as the uncertainty in these parameters. The procedure made use of historical experimental data, the results from thermo‐chemical modeling as well as data on the best isentrope function fit to cylinder test experimental data. Combining all these heterogeneous data sources together in a Bayesian calibration, yielded a posterior mean and covariance. Sampling from the posterior distribution and evaluating an important Quantity Of Interest (QOI) in the EOS model, the detonation speed of a one‐inch rate stick, produced a distribution which showed variations which were in agreement with experiments. The uncertainty in the EOS was reported as eleven sets of model calibrations which spanned the range of this QOI.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying sensitivity in numerical weather prediction-modeled offshore wind speeds through an ensemble modeling approach

A decade of research has shown that numerical weather prediction (NWP)-modeled wind speeds can be highly sensitive to the inputs and setups within the NWP model. For wind resource characterization applications, this sensitivity is often addressed by constructing a range of setups and selecting the one that best validates against observations. However, this approach is not possible in areas that lack high-quality hub height observations, especially offshore wind areas. In such cases, techniques to quantify and disseminate confidence in NWP-modeled wind speeds in the absence of observations are needed. We address this need in the present study and propose best practices for quantifying the spread in NWP-modeled wind speeds. We implement an ensemble approach in which we consider 24 different setups to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We construct the ensemble by considering variations in WRF version, WRF namelist, atmospheric forcing, and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. Our analysis finds that the standard deviation produces more consistent estimates compared to the interquartile range and tends to be the more conservative estimator for ensemble variability. We further find that model spread increases closer to the surface and on shorter time scales. In conclusion, we explore methods to attribute total ensemble variability to the different ensemble components (e.g., atmospheric forcing and SST product) and find that contributions by components also vary depending on time scale. We anticipate that the methods and results presented in this paper will provide a reasonable foundation for further research into ensemble-based wind resource data sets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗