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At least 415 records · Page 23

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DOE OSTI2025

Confidence-weighted integration of human and machine judgments for superior decision-making

Large language models (LLMs) can surpass humans in certain forecasting tasks. What role does this leave for humans in the overall decision process? One possibility is that humans, despite performing worse than LLMs, can still add value when teamed with them. A human and machine team can surpass each individual teammate when team members’ confidence is well calibrated and team members diverge in which tasks they find difficult (i.e., calibration and diversity are needed). We simplified and extended a Bayesian approach to combining judgments using a logistic regression framework that integrates confidence-weighted judgments for any number of team members. Using this straightforward method, we demonstrated its effectiveness in both image classification and neuroscience forecasting tasks. Combining human judgments with one or more machines consistently improved overall team performance. Our hope is that this simple and effective strategy for integrating the judgments of humans and machines will lead to productive collaborations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emergence of deep eutectic solvents (DES): chemistry, preparation, properties, and applications in biorefineries and critical materials

The emergence of renewable deep eutectic solvents (DES) as clean and efficient catalysts and solvents has created new opportunities for lignocellulosic biorefineries and critical material sectors, including chemical, energy, pharmaceutical, textile, and hydrometallurgical industries. This review provides an in-depth overview of DES, covering their chemistry, classifications, preparation methods, processing characteristics, and recyclability, while highlighting their unique attributes and industry relevant applications. Emphasis is placed on the integration of DES into advanced biorefinery systems, focusing on their tunable physicochemical and thermodynamic properties for biomass pretreatment and the production of value-added products. The review explores how DES can be tuned for selective dissolution of biomass components and evaluates production and valorization of DES-derived biochemicals, with attention to lignin extraction mechanisms and conversion of biomass into bioproducts and biofuels. Beyond biorefineries, the scope extends to DES applications in electrochemical energy devices, where they serve as electrolytes, synthesis media for electrode materials, and leaching agents in battery recycling. The multifunctional roles of DES in pharmaceutical, hydrometallurgical, and textile sectors are also explored for contributions to sustainable processing. Finally, the review identifies future research directions, outlining benefits, challenges, and knowledge gaps, for continued industrial development.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

deadtrees.earth — An open-access and interactive database for centimeter-scale aerial imagery to uncover global tree mortality dynamics

Excessive tree mortality is a global concern and remains poorly understood as it is a complex phenomenon. We lack global and temporally continuous coverage on tree mortality data. Ground-based observations on tree mortality, e.g., derived from national inventories, are very sparse, and may not be standardized or spatially explicit. Earth observation data, combined with supervised machine learning, offer a promising approach to map overstory tree mortality in a consistent manner over space and time. However, global-scale machine learning requires broad training data covering a wide range of environmental settings and forest types. Low altitude observation platforms (e.g., drones or airplanes) provide a cost-effective source of training data by capturing high-resolution orthophotos of overstory tree mortality events at centimeter-scale resolution. Here, we introduce deadtrees.earth, an open-access platform hosting more than two thousand centimeter-resolution orthophotos, covering more than 1,000,000 ha, of which more than 58,000 ha are manually annotated with live/dead tree classifications. This community-sourced and rigorously curated dataset can serve as a comprehensive reference dataset to uncover tree mortality patterns from local to global scales using space-based Earth observation data and machine learning models. This will provide the basis to attribute tree mortality patterns to environmental changes or project tree mortality dynamics to the future. The open nature of deadtrees.earth, together with its curation of high-quality, spatially representative, and ecologically diverse data will continuously increase our capacity to uncover and understand tree mortality dynamics.

Citizen science↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of chemometric models to classify solid-state U materials by micro-Raman spectroscopy

Discerning uranium (U) particles found in environmental sampling is of interest for monitoring the peaceful use of nuclear material. In this study, a soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) library was successfully developed for the classification of a four-class system consisting of α-U 3 O 8 , UO 2 , UO 2 (NO 3 ) 2 ·6H 2 O (UNH), and UO 2 O 2 ·4H 2 O (studtite) by Raman spectroscopy in the presence of matrix particulates and additional outliers. Spectral variability between numerous particles of each type revealed appreciable differences as a function of particle size with respect to hydration state and potential oxide phase within each class. Interclass variability was accounted for using both unsupervised and supervised chemometric models. The supervised SIMCA model displayed reasonable sensitivity for each U class and a high degree of specificity by returning whether a spectrum belonged to one class or not. This work demonstrates how Raman spectral features and chemometrics can be used to distinguish U materials from one another and from matrix materials such as flint clay. Combining the outlined chemometric approach with Raman mapping sequences could provide a rapid, nondestructive technique to characterize the chemical composition of a diverse collection of U compounds amid background samples for environmental sampling, nuclear forensics, and industrial applications.

Actinide↗

DOE OSTI2024

Moisture-mineral interactions drive bacterial and organic matter turnover in glacier-sourced riparian sediments undergoing pedogenesis

Glacial recession is occurring at unprecedented rates resulting in increased sediment accumula-tions in some riverine ecosystems. Increased sediment deposition has implications for ecosystem stability (e.g., floods and river paths) and environmental services (e.g., carbon sequestration). Soils and sediments have an enormous potential to retain carbon (C), predominantly due to sorp-tion to mineral surfaces. However, C persistence may be sensitive to climate-change induced temperature and moisture variations. We coupled ultrahigh resolution organic matter composition classification with bacterial characterization and respiration measurements to test the combined effects of temperature (4 vs 20°C) and moisture (50 vs 100% water-filled pore space) on C turn-over in sediments maintained under different mineralogical conditions (illite-amended vs non-amended). Here we show that the inhibition of CO 2 emissions from the combined effect of in-creased moisture content and illite was reflected in the turnover of key molecular signatures, such as the nominal oxidation state of C, often irrespective of temperature. However, shifts in bacteri-al communities from a coupled moisture-mineral interaction, were temperature-dependent. Our results highlight the importance of moisture in driving mineral-organic interactions and suggest that C in clay-rich, water-saturated sediments is both thermodynamically unfavorable and miner-al-protected from microbial consumption.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Morphotype-resolved characterization of microalgal communities in a nutrient recovery process with ARTiMiS flow imaging microscopy

Microalgae-driven nutrient recovery represents a promising technology for phosphorus removal from wastewater while simultaneously generating biomass that can be valorized to offset treatment costs. As full-scale processes come online, system parameters including biomass composition must be carefully monitored to optimize performance and prevent culture crashes. In this study, flow imaging microscopy (FIM) was leveraged to characterize microalgal community composition in near real-time at a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in Wisconsin, USA, and population and morphotype dynamics were examined to identify relationships between water chemistry, biomass composition, and system performance. Two FIM technologies, FlowCam and ARTiMiS, were evaluated as monitoring tools. ARTiMiS provided a more accurate estimate of total system biomass, and estimates derived from particle area as a proxy for biovolume yielded better approximations than particle counts. Deep learning classification models trained on annotated image libraries demonstrated equivalent performance between FlowCam and ARTiMiS, and convolutional neural network (CNN) classifiers proved significantly more accurate when compared to feature table-based dense neural network (DNN) models. Across a two-year study period, Scenedesmus spp. appeared most important for phosphorus removal, and were negatively impacted by elevated temperatures and increase in nitrite/nitrate concentrations. Chlorella and Monoraphidium also played an important role in phosphorus removal. For both Scenedesmus and Chlorella, smaller morphological types were more often associated with better system performance, whereas larger morphotypes likely associated with stress response(s) correlated with poor phosphorus recovery rates. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the potential of FIM as a critical technology for high-resolution characterization of industrial microalgal processes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

How does ion temperature gradient turbulence depend on magnetic geometry? Insights from data and machine learning

Magnetic geometry has a significant effect on the level of turbulent transport in fusion plasmas. Here, we model and analyse this dependence using multiple machine learning methods and a dataset of >200 000 nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations of ion-temperature-gradient turbulence in diverse non-axisymmetric geometries. The dataset is generated using a large collection of both optimised and randomly generated stellarator equilibria. At fixed gradients and other input parameters, the turbulent heat flux varies between geometries by several orders of magnitude. Trends are apparent among the configurations with particularly high or particularly low heat flux. Regression and classification techniques from machine learning are then applied to extract patterns in the dataset. Due to a symmetry of the gyrokinetic equation, the heat flux and regressions thereof should be invariant to translations of the raw features in the parallel coordinate, similar to translation invariance in computer vision applications. Multiple regression models including convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and decision trees can achieve reasonable predictive power for the heat flux in held-out test configurations, with highest accuracy for the CNNs. Using Spearman correlation, sequential feature selection and Shapley values to measure feature importance, it is consistently found that the most important geometric lever on the heat flux is the flux surface compression in regions of bad curvature. The second most important geometric feature relates to the magnitude of geodesic curvature. These two features align remarkably with surrogates that have been proposed based on theory, while the methods here allow a natural extension to more features for increased accuracy. The dataset, released with this publication, may also be used to test other proposed surrogates, and we find that many previously published proxies do correlate well with both the heat flux and stability boundary.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Material Design Principles for Calcium-Ion Mobility in Intercalation Cathodes

Multivalent-ion batteries offer an alternative to Li-based technologies, with the potential for greater sustainability, improved safety, and higher energy density, primarily due to their rechargeable system featuring a passivating metal anode. Although a system based on the Ca 2+ /Ca couple is particularly attractive given the low electrochemical plating potential of Ca 2+ , the remaining challenge for a viable rechargeable Ca battery is to identify Ca cathodes with fast ion transport. In this work, a high-throughput computational pipeline is adapted to (1) discover novel Ca cathodes in a largely unexplored space of empty intercalation hosts and (2) develop material design rules for Ca-ion mobility. One candidate from the screening, W 2 O 3 (PO 4 ) 2 , is confirmed to have a low Nudged Elastic Band (NEB) barrier of 168 meV within a one-dimensional (1D) ion percolation topology. This candidate is subsequently synthesized and electrochemically tested, achieving reversible Ca cycling with a capacity of 25 mA h/g. To further accelerate the screening for promising Ca intercalation electrodes, machine learning (ML) Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) classification models are created with local environment descriptors based on a large, structurally and chemically diverse dataset of minimum energy pathways, spanning over 5,000 density functional theory (DFT) site energy calculations. Accuracies of 92% are achieved, material design metrics are quantified, ML force-fields are leveraged in an accelerated iteration of the screening, and a total of 27 novel Ca cathode materials are highlighted for further investigation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design Principles in Engineering of Multigrain Nanocatalysts via Multiscale Electronic Structure Characterization

Engineering grain boundary (GB) strain provides a promising pathway to tune the catalytic properties of nanocrystals. However, structural heterogeneity from random grain orientation and geometry has limited clear structure–property correlations. Here, we utilize a multigrain Co3O4/Mn3O4 core/shell nanocrystal platform as a model system to systematically investigate how geometric misfit strain at GBs serves as catalytically active sites for the oxygen reduction reaction. Through precise subnanometer-level control over grain morphology and by integrating multiscale electronic structure characterization, we identify the electronic structural signature of GB defects and establish a direct correlation between localized strain fields and modified electronic states. Strain modulation at GBs alters the eg orbital energy levels, with elongation along the z-axis combined with shear strain stabilizing the eg states, in contrast to the destabilization observed under pure shear strain. This stabilization mechanism enhances the electrocatalytic activity and selectivity of strained GBs compared with strain-relaxed grain surfaces. Furthermore, we reveal that GBs exhibit a radial strain gradient, producing a spatial energy shift that further modulates local electronic structures, as resolved through the classification of electron energy loss spectroscopy data. Together, these findings demonstrate that geometric misfit strain enables precise tuning of grain geometry and the resulting electronic structures, offering a robust strategy for engineering next-generation nanocatalysts.

Cho, Min Gee↗

DOE OSTI2026

Covalent Adaptable Networks: Reprocessable Cross-Linked Polymers

Thermoset polymers have desirable properties, such as excellent thermal and mechanical stability, but their covalent cross-links typically prevent repair or recycling. By enabling and controlling dynamic exchange reactions within polymer networks, their covalent bonds rearrange and allow the polymer to be reshaped. These viscoelastic polymer networks, now known as covalent adaptable networks (CANs), are an important frontier for improving plastic circularity, as well as for designing valuable stimuli-responsive materials. This Review describes the history of CANs, dating back to the early days of polymer science, and the evolution of their classification and nomenclature. A comprehensive survey of dynamic reactions and linkage chemistries is provided, as well as methods to characterize and reprocess CANs. Beyond straightforward reprocessing, many advanced applications of CANs and their composites are now emerging. Lastly, we provide perspective on how the development of new chemistries, strategies to control stimuli-responsive bond exchange and mechanical properties, and a deep understanding of exchange reactions will advance this field toward scalable, sustainable, and high-value materials.

Sun, Molly [Northwestern University, Evanston, IL ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ligand Noninnocence in β-Diketiminate and β-Diketimine Copper Complexes

Metal–ligand cooperative systems have a long precedent in catalysis, with the classification depending on the site of substrate bond cleavage and formation and on redox state changes. Recently, our group reported the participation of a β-diketiminate ligand in chemical bonding to heterocumulenes such as CO 2 and CS 2 by tricopper complexes, leading to cooperative catalysis. Herein, we report the reactivity of these copper clusters, [Cu 3 EL] – (E = S, Se; L = tris(β-diketiminate) cyclophane ligand), toward other electrophiles, viz. alkyl halides and Brønsted acids. We identified a family of ligand-functionalized complexes, Cu 3 EL (R) (R = primary alkyls), and a series of disubstituted products, Cu 3 EL (R) 2 , through single-crystal X-ray diffraction, mass spectrometry, and infrared and UV–visible spectroscopy. Furthermore, as part of mechanistic studies on these alkylation reactions, we evaluated the acid–base reactivity of these complexes and the influence of the backbone substitution on the reduction potential. Implications of these findings for ligand noninnocence and the relevance of the metal core as a cofactor for the ligand’s reactivity are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ligand-Based Compound Activity Prediction via Few-Shot Learning

Predicting the activities of new compounds against biophysical or phenotypic assays based on the known activities of one or a few existing compounds is a common goal in early stage drug discovery. This problem can be cast as a “few-shot learning” challenge, and prior studies have developed few-shot learning methods to classify compounds as active versus inactive. However, the ability to go beyond classification and rank compounds by expected affinity is more valuable. We describe Few-Shot Compound Activity Prediction (FS-CAP), a novel neural architecture trained on a large bioactivity data set to predict compound activities against an assay outside the training set, based on only the activities of a few known compounds against the same assay. Our model aggregates encodings generated from the known compounds and their activities to capture assay information and uses a separate encoder for the new compound whose activity is to be predicted. The new method provides encouraging results relative to traditional chemical-similarity-based techniques as well as other state-of-the-art few-shot learning methods in tests on a variety of ligand-based drug discovery settings and data sets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Confusion-Driven Machine Learning of Structural Phases of a Flexible, Magnetic Stockmayer Polymer

We use a semisupervised, neural-network-based machine learning technique, the confusion method, to investigate structural transitions in magnetic polymers, which we model as chains of magnetic colloidal nanoparticles characterized by dipole–dipole and Lennard-Jones interactions. As input for the neural network, we use the particle positions and magnetic dipole moments of equilibrium polymer configurations, which we generate via replica-exchange Wang–Landau simulations. We demonstrate that by measuring the classification accuracy of neural networks, we can effectively identify transition points between multiple structural phases without any prior knowledge of their existence or location. We corroborate our findings by investigating relevant conventional order parameters. Our study furthermore examines previously unexplored low-temperature regions of the phase diagram, where we find new structural transitions between highly ordered helicoidal polymer configurations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Charge Dependence of Local Hydration Dynamics in Poly(Acrylic Acid) Solutions

Localized measurements of hydration dynamics surrounding poly(acrylic acid) (pAA) chains are executed using Overhauser dynamic nuclear polarization relaxometry to determine the role of polymer protonation state on the polymer solvation environment. Alterations in polymer concentration and solution pH uncovered three different regimes of local water dynamics ranging from bulk-water-like to subdued water diffusivity. These experiments, combined with molecular dynamics simulations, reveal that the presence of deprotonated carboxylic acid groups promotes a hydrophilic local environment and extended polymer chain configurations that together incentivize the incorporation of bulk-like water near the polymer. This results in a stretched polymer conformation that leads to faster observed hydration dynamics in the local hydration environment. Meanwhile, protonated carboxylic acid groups are expected to engage in intrapolymer hydrogen bonding between monomer groups, resulting in a more collapsed conformation and slower observed hydration dynamics. The importance of the carboxylic acid groups on mediating hydration behavior is further illustrated by their role in dictating the solvation environment around poly(acrylic acid-stat-(poly(ethylene glycol) methyl ether acrylate) (p(AA-stat-PEGMEA)) copolymers with varying monomer ratios. Furthermore, these local hydration measurements establish a connection between local water dynamics and polymer chain conformation and may provide additional molecular perspective into poly(acrylic acid)’s classification as a superabsorbent polymer.

Conformation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Optimization of Catalysis with In-Context Learning

Large language models (LLMs) can perform accurate classification with zero or few examples through in-context learning (ICL), allowing the model to observe query-relevant examples at inference time and eliminating the need for additional weight updates to generalize beyond its original training data. We extend this capability to regression with uncertainty estimation using frozen LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini), enabling Bayesian optimization (BO) in natural language without explicit model training or feature engineering. We apply this to materials discovery by representing materials as synthesis and testing procedures for use in natural language prompts. This Bayesian, design-first approach prioritizes optimization toward target material properties before detailed characterization, in contrast to conventional experimental workflows that often emphasize characterization of suboptimal materials. On benchmarks like aqueous solubility and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), BO-ICL matches or outperforms Gaussian processes. In live experiments on the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, BO-ICL identifies multimetallic catalysts that approach equilibrium CO yield within 6 and 10 iterations from a pool of 3,700 and 360,000 candidates, respectively. Our method redefines materials representation and accelerates discovery, with broad applications across catalysis, materials science, and AI.

Calibration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Kelvin Probe Force Microscopy Imaging of Plasticity in Hydrogenated Perovskite Nickelate Multilevel Neuromorphic Devices

Ion drift in nanoscale electronically inhomogeneous semiconductors is among the most important mechanisms being studied for designing neuromorphic computing hardware. However, nondestructive imaging of the ion drift in operando devices directly responsible for multiresistance states and synaptic memory represents a formidable challenge. Here, we present Kelvin probe force microscopy imaging of hydrogen-doped perovskite nickelate device channels subject to high-speed electric field pulses to directly visualize proton distribution by monitoring surface potential changes spatially, which is also supported with finite element-based electric field distribution studies. First-principles calculations provide mechanistic insights into the origin of surface potential changes as a function of hydrogen donor doping that serves as the contrast mechanism. We demonstrate 128 (7-bit) nonvolatile conductance levels in such devices relevant to in-memory computing applications. The synaptic plasticity measurements are implemented in spiking neural networks and show promising results for classification (SciKit Learn’s Iris and Wine data sets) and control (OpenAI’s CartPole-v1 and BipedalWalker-v3) simulation tasks.

Kelvin probe force microscopy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using Data Science Tools to Reveal and Understand Subtle Relationships of Inhibitor Structure in Frontal Ring-Opening Metathesis Polymerization

The rate of frontal ring-opening metathesis polymerization (FROMP) using the Grubbs generation II catalyst is impacted by both the concentration and choice of monomers and inhibitors, usually organophosphorus derivatives. Herein we report a data-science-driven workflow to evaluate how these factors impact both the rate of FROMP and how long the formulation of the mixture is stable (pot life). Using this workflow, we built a classification model using a single-node decision tree to determine how a simple phosphine structural descriptor (V bur-near ) can bin long versus short pot life. Additionally, we applied a nonlinear kernel ridge regression model to predict how the inhibitor and selection/concentration of comonomers impact the FROMP rate. Furthermore, the analysis provides selection criteria for material network structures that span from highly cross-linked thermosets to non-cross-linked thermoplastics as well as degradable and nondegradable materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Correlation of Electron Micrographs and ToF-SIMS for the Analysis of Organic Biomarkers in Mudstone

The spatial distribution of organics in geological samples can be used to determine when and how these organics were incorporated into the host rock. Mass spectrometry (MS) imaging can rapidly collect a large amount of data, but ions produced are mixed without discrimination, resulting in complex mass spectra that can be difficult to interpret. Here, we apply unsupervised and supervised machine learning (ML) to help interpret spectra from time-of-flight-secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) of an organic-carbon-rich mudstone of the Middle Jurassic of England (UK). It was previously shown that the presence of sterane molecular biomarkers in this sample can be detected via ToF-SIMS (Pasterski, M. J. et al., Astrobiology 2023, 23, 936). We use unsupervised ML on scanning electron microscopy–electron dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) measurements to define compositional categories based on differences in elemental abundances. We then test the ability of four ML algorithms─k-nearest neighbors (KNN), recursive partitioning and regressive trees (RPART), eXtreme gradient boost (XGBoost), and random forest (RF)─to classify the ToF-SIM spectra using (1) the categories assigned via SEM-EDS, (2) organic and inorganic labels assigned via SEM-EDS, and (3) the presence or absence of detectable steranes in ToF-SIMS spectra. In terms of predictive accuracy and balanced accuracy, KNN was the best performing model and RPART the worst. The feature importance, or the specific features of the ToF-SIM spectra used by the models to make classifications, cannot be determined for KNN, preventing posthoc model interpretation. Nevertheless, the feature importance extracted from the other models was useful for interpreting spectra. In conclusion, we determined that some of the organic ions used to classify biomarker containing spectra may be fragment ions derived from kerogen which is abundant in this mudstone sample.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗