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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Arctic Amplification: Process Drivers and Sources of Uncertainty

Arctic amplification (AA) is a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean process. This understanding has evolved from the early concept of AA, as a consequence of snow ice line progressions, through more than a century of research that has clarified the relevant processes and driving mechanisms of AA. The predictions made by early modeling studies, namely the fall/winter maximum, bottom-heavy structure, the prominence of surface albedo feedback, and the importance of stable stratification have withstood the scrutiny of multi-decadal observations and more complex models. Yet, the uncertainty in Arctic climate projections is larger than in any other region of the planet, making the assessment of high-impact, near-term regional changes difficult or impossible. Reducing this large spread in Arctic climate projections requires a quantitative process understanding. This presentation synthesizes current knowledge of AA and describes a set of recommendations to guide future research. It briefly reviews the history of AA science, summarizes observed Arctic changes, discusses modeling approaches and feedback diagnostics, and assesses the current understanding of the most relevant feedbacks to AA. These sections culminate in a conceptual model of the fundamental physical mechanisms causing AA and a collection of recommendations to accelerate progress towards reduced uncertainty in Arctic climate projections. Our conceptual model highlights the need to account for local feedback and remote process interactions within the context of the annual cycle to constrain projected AA.

Patrick C Taylor↗
NASA NTRS1981

Sensitivity of the Earth's climate to changes

Climate modeling is discussed with emphasis on the control of major parameters in such modeling. Possible feedbacks which operate on long time scales and are therefore not testable directly, are also discussed. Examples of simplified models are presented. The accuracy of several models is assessed and suggestions for improvements for climatic modeling are given.

North, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Linear trends in Northern Hemisphere tropospheric geopotential height and temperature patterns

Gridded National Meteorological Center data for 500 mb geopotential height and 300-500 mb and 500-700 mb thickness for the period 1951-1978 are subjected to linear trend analyses. The analyses are carried out for each calendar month. Significant geographical and seasonal distributions of cooling and warming patterns are found. An atmospheric cooling trend over the North Pacific during the winter months is seen in a region where oceanic cooling has also been observed, but planetary-wave adjustments rather than ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanisms appear to be dominant in the atmospheric cooling on climatic time scales. Consistently large temperature trends are also seen over the continent of Asia. Comparisons between thickness trends in the layer 300-500 mb and those in the layer 500-700 mb reveal pronounced patterns of stabilization and destabilization.

Reiter, E. R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The small ice cap instability in diffusive climate models

Simple climate models which invoke diffusive heat transport and ice cap albedo feedback have equilibrium solutions with no stable ice cap smaller than a radius of about 20 deg on a great circle. Attention is presently given to a solution of this phenomenon which is physically appealing. The ice-free solution has a thermal minimum, and if the minimum temperature is just above the critical value for ice formation, then the artificial addition of a patch of ice leads to a widespread depression of the temperature below the critical freezing temperature. A second stable solution will then exist whose spatial extent is determined by the range of the influence function of a point sink of heat, due to the albedo shift in the patch.

North, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Role of Thermodynamic Phase Shifts in Cloud Optical Depth Variations with Temperature

We present a novel method that identifies the contributions of thermodynamic phase shifts and processes governing supercooled liquid and ice clouds to cloud optical depth variations with temperature using MODIS observations. Our findings suggest that thermodynamic phase shifts outweigh the net influence of processes governing supercooled liquid and ice clouds in causing increases in mid-latitudinal cold cloud optical depth with temperature. Cloud regime analysis suggests that dynamical conditions appear to have less influence on the contribution of thermodynamic phase shifts to cloud optical depth variations with temperature. Thermodynamic phase shifts also contribute more to increases in cloud optical depth during colder seasons due to the enhanced optical thickness contrast between liquid and ice clouds. The results of this study highlight the importance of thermodynamic phase shifts in explaining cold cloud optical depth increases with temperature in the current climate and may elucidate their role in the cloud optical depth feedback.

cloud optical depth↗
NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Clouds and Convective Parameterizations in A Climate Model Using Paleoclimate Data

Cloud and convective parameterizations strongly influence uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We provide a proof-of-concept study to constrain these parameterizations in a perturbed parameter ensemble of the atmosphere-only version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1 simulations by evaluating model biases in the present-day runs using multiple satellite climatologies and by comparing simulated δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ), known to be sensitive to parameterization schemes, with a global database of speleothem δ 18 O records covering the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH) and pre-industrial (PI) periods. Relative to modern interannual variability, paleoclimate simulations show greater sensitivity to parameter changes, allowing for an evaluation of model uncertainties over a broader range of climate forcing and the identification of parts of the world that are parameter sensitive. Certain simulations reproduced absolute δ 18 O p values across all time periods, along with LGM and MH δ 18 O p anomalies relative to the PI, better than the default parameterization. No single set of parameterizations worked well in all climate states, likely due to the non-stationarity of cloud feedbacks under varying boundary conditions. Future work that involves varying multiple parameter sets simultaneously with coupled ocean feedbacks will likely provide improved constraints on cloud and convective parameterizations.

cloud and convective parameterization↗
NASA NTRS2001

Using Climate Models to Evaluate Mechanisms of Glacial Inception

The initiation and subsequent growth of an ice sheet or large glacier is based on two primary factors: 1. Most fundamentally, a region must exist with a positive net snow accumulation, that is, cold season snowfall exceeds warm season snowmelt. Because snow can melt very rapidly, in a practical sense this probably means that little or no snow melt should occur in the warm season (mountain glaciers being one possible exception). 2. When sufficient ice builds in a region with a positive net snow accumulation, the ice will flow into adjoining regions with a negative mass balance. Feedbacks can also then arise between the emerging ice sheet and the overall climate, which, among other effects, may cause the mass balance in that region to turn positive. A key question is the relative importance of these two factors. In particular, is it possible for a large lowland region to experience a positive mass balance, such that the ice sheet can arise largely 'in-situ'? Or instead are uplands necessary, such that essentially mountain glaciers form first, and then, under the right conditions, grow and coalesce, eventually spreading out into the lowlands? This is probably the single most fundamental question to be addressed in the modeling of glacial inception. Other key questions then focus on how the (upland or low-land) positive mass balance is obtained at some times, but not others (the ice sheets are not continuously present). For Northern Hemisphere ice sheets in particular, what climatic conditions can lead to abundant winter snowfall in the Canadian Arctic and northern Labrador in conjunction with cool summertime conditions? Are both required, or will cool summer conditions alone suffice? Conversely, are a few years of abnormally heavy snowfall all that is required to trigger glacial inception? A major need at present is for carefully constructed climate model studies aimed at addressing these questions. A successful strategy will almost certainly require more than just a global model; while the global climate model might be necessary to properly simulate large-scale forcing, such models have insufficient spatial resolution to adequately address the roles of topography and the nature of the land surface. Necessary also is the use of a high-resolution regional climate model (in conjunction with a global model). Possible forcing mechanisms of Pleistocene ice ages are well known (e.g., orbital forcing; CO2 fluctuations) but we must understand and be able to successfully model the actual processes involved in glacial inception before we can fully understand the true roles played by these forcing mechanisms.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Observed Climate Properties of Tropical Precipitating Convection

Conflicting theories about the contribution of convective systems to cloud feedback highlight the need for observational constraints on the properties of these storms. The NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite provides unprecedented information on the hydrological properties and energetics of tropical convection. We present an analysis of almost 9,000 TRMM storms, focusing on how convection strength affects storm cloud properties and rainfall, and what this implies for the opposing "adaptive iris" and "thermostat" hypotheses.

DelGenio, Anthony↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling the Water Cycle With the NASA Ames FV3-Based Mars Global Climate Model

It is widely recognized that water ice clouds critically affect the current weather and climate of Mars. Simulating clouds and the water cycle in climate models remains challenging, however, due to the highly sensitive nature of cloud formation to several microphysical parameters that are not well known for Mars and the strong radiative feedbacks that can occur. We have recently ported our cloud microphysics package from the NASA Ames Legacy Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM) to our new MGCM based on the NOAA/GFDL cubed-sphere finite volume (FV3) dynamical core. Here we report on the status of our water cycle simulations and show how our reference simulation compares to observations.

M A Kahre↗
NASA NTRS2022

Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks in the Context of the Global Circulation and Hydrological Cycle

Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback (SW FB ) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report (AR5) ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K) due to extratropical SW FB ’s that are more positive than those simulated in previous generation CMIP5 GCMs. Here we show that across 57 GCMs Southern Ocean SW FB can be predicted from the sensitivity of column-integrated liquid water mass LWP) to moisture convergence and to surface temperature. The response of LWP to moisture convergence and the response of albedo to LWP anti-correlate across GCMs. This is because GCMs that simulate a larger response of LWP to moisture convergence tend to have higher mean-state LWPs, which reduces the impact of additional LWP on albedo. Observational constraints suggest a modestly negative Southern Ocean SW FB — inconsistent with extreme ECS.

extratropical cloud response↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Cumulus and Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD)

Low clouds continue to contribute greatly to the uncertainty in cloud feedback estimates. Depending on whether a region is dominated by cumulus (Cu) or stratocumulus (Sc) clouds, the interannual low-cloud feedback is somewhat different in both spaceborne and large-eddy simulation studies. Therefore, simulating the correct amount and variation of the Cu and Sc cloud distributions could be crucial to predict future cloud feedbacks. Here we document spatial distributions and profiles of Sc and Cu clouds derived from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) and CloudSat measurements. For this purpose, we create a new dataset called the Cumulus And Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD), which identifies Sc, broken Sc, Cu under Sc, Cu with stratiform outflow and Cu. To separate the Cu from Sc, we design an original method based on the cloud height, horizontal extent, vertical variability and horizontal continuity, which is separately applied to both CALIPSO and combined CloudSat–CALIPSO observations. First, the choice of parameters used in the discrimination algorithm is investigated and validated in selected Cu, Sc and Sc–Cu transition case studies. Then, the global statistics are compared against those from existing passive- and active-sensor satellite observations. Our results indicate that the cloud optical thickness – as used in passive-sensor observations – is not a sufficient parameter to discriminate Cu from Sc clouds, in agreement with previous literature. Using clustering-derived datasets shows better results although one cannot completely separate cloud types with such an approach. On the contrary, classifying Cu and Sc clouds and the transition between them based on their geometrical shape and spatial heterogeneity leads to spatial distributions consistent with prior knowledge of these clouds, from ground-based, ship-based and field campaigns. Furthermore, we show that our method improves existing Sc–Cu classifications by using additional information on cloud height and vertical cloud fraction variation. Finally, the CASCCAD datasets provide a basis to evaluate shallow convection and stratocumulus clouds on a global scale in climate models and potentially improve our understanding of low-level cloud feedbacks. The CASCCAD dataset (Cesana, 2019, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2667637) is available on the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) website at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/clouds/casccad/ (last access: 5 November 2019) and on the zenodo website at https://zenodo.org/record/2667637 (last access: 5 November 2019).

Cesana, Gregory V.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene.

climate models↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cloud Climate Data Records from Geostationary Satellites to Support CERES: Challenges and Recent Progress

Cloud properties are critical for understanding the Earth’s radiation budget and cloud feedbacks. At NASA Langley Research Center, the Satellite ClOud and Radiative Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) provides real-time and historical analyses of clouds derived from Geostationary satellite (GEOsat) data for weather and climate applications. For the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) program, the global constellation of GEOsats has been analyzed since 2000 to help characterize and account for the diurnal cycle of clouds and their radiative impacts in the CERES climate data record. Obtaining consistent cloud properties over the GEOsat data record at all times of day during the CERES era is a major objective but a significant challenge considering the diversity of imaging capabilities deployed during that time. A brief overview of the current CERES/GEO cloud property data record constructed from three generations of GEOsat imagers for CERES Edition-4 is presented. In this version, different algorithms were applied to different satellites to take advantage of as much spectral information as possible for each satellite. Under this approach, the derived cloud properties were found to become accurate (and more similar to MODIS) for the GEOsat imagers with more spectral information. However, this approach also led to some discontinuities in cloud properties across platforms. Significant differences were also found between daytime and nighttime cloud properties. This paper will highlight the major issues in the Edition-4 record and discuss new strategies and early results from the next version of the SatCORPS GEOsat cloud property time series in development for CERES Edition-5 with the goal of improving day-night and cross-platform consistency during the CERES record.

clouds↗
NASA NTRS2016

2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report

As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections.

earth system models (ESMs)↗
NASA NTRS2011

Drought and Heat Waves: The Role of SST and Land Surface Feedbacks

Drought occurs on a wide range of time scales, and within a variety of different types of regional climates. At the shortest time scales it is often associated with heat waves that last only several weeks to a few months but nevertheless can have profound detrimental impacts on society (e.g., heat-related impacts on human health, desiccation of croplands, increased fire hazard), while at the longest time scales it can extend over decades and can lead to long term structural changes in many aspects of society (e.g., agriculture, water resources, wetlands, tourism, population shifts). There is now considerable evidence that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a leading role in the development of drought world-wide, especially at seasonal and longer time scales, though land-atmosphere feedbacks can also play an important role. At shorter (subseasonal) time scales, SSTs are less important, but land feedbacks can play a critical role in maintaining and amplifying the atmospheric conditions associated with heat waves and short-term droughts. This talk reviews our current understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive precipitation and temperature variations on subseasonal to centennial time scales. This includes an assessment of predictability, prediction skill, and user needs at all time scales.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Investigating the Influence of Clouds on the Vertical Distribution and Meridional Transport of Dust and Water.

The dust and water cycles are critical to the current Martian climate, and they interact with each other through cloud formation. Dust modulates the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly influences atmospheric circulation. Clouds provide radiative forcing and control the net hemispheric transport of water through the alteration of the vertical distributions of water and dust. Recent advancements in the quality and sophistication of both climate models and observations enable an increased understanding of how the coupling between the dust and water cycles (through cloud formation) impacts the dust and water cycles. We focus here on the effects of clouds on the vertical distributions of dust and water and how those vertical distributions control the net meridional transport of water. We utilize observations of temperature, dust and water ice from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and the NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM) to show that the magnitude and nature of the hemispheric exchange of water during NH summer is sensitive to the vertical structure of the simulated aphelion cloud belt. Further, we investigate how clouds influence atmospheric temperatures and thus the vertical structure of the cloud belt. Our goal is to isolate and understand the importance of radiative/dynamic feedbacks due to the physical processes involved with cloud formation and evolution on the current climate of Mars.

NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM)↗
NASA NTRS1987

Relating multitemporal meteorological satellite data to climatological data for Africa

The questions of surface-atmosphere interaction and effects of land surface changes have been investigated by studying the energy balance over Africa. The energy and mass balance model being developed is an adaptation of the Lettau climatonomy model. The climatonic approach is a systems approach which encompasses: (1) a process, (2) an input to the process (forcing function), (3) an output from the process (response function), (4) feedback, and (5) control or management of the system. Steady-state climate is described and parametrized using a series of one-dimensional differential continuity and balance equations for energy and mass.

Nicholson, Sharon E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Operational satellites and the global monitoring of snow and ice

The altitudinal dependence of the global warming projected by global climate models is at least partially attributable to the albedo-temperature feedback involving snow and ice, which must be regarded as key variables in the monitoring for global change. Statistical analyses of data from IR and microwave sensors monitoring the areal coverage and extent of sea ice have led to mixed conclusions about recent trends of hemisphere sea ice coverage. Seasonal snow cover has been mapped for over 20 years by NOAA/NESDIS on the basis of imagery from a variety of satellite sensors. Multichannel passive microwave data show some promise for the routine monitoring of snow depth over unforested land areas.

Walsh, John E.↗