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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Using Regionalized Air Quality Model Performance and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Data Fusion to Map Global Surface Ozone Concentration and Associated Uncertainty

Estimates of ground-level ozone concentrations have been improved through data fusion of observations and atmospheric chemistry models. Our previous global ozone estimates for the Global Burden of Disease study corrected for bias uniformly across continents and then corrected near monitoring stations using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework for data fusion. Here, we use the Regionalized Air Quality Model Performance (RAMP) framework to correct model bias over a much larger spatial range than BME can, accounting for the spatial inhomogeneity of bias and nonlinearity as a function of modeled ozone. RAMP bias correction is applied to a composite of 9 global chemistry-climate models, based on the nearest set of monitors. These estimates are then fused with observations using BME, which matches observations at measurement stations, with the influence of observations declining with distance in space and time. We create global ozone maps for each year from 1990 to 2017 at fine spatial resolution. RAMP is shown to create unrealistic discontinuities due to the spatial clustering of ozone monitors, which we overcome by applying a weighting for RAMP based on the number of monitors nearby. Incorporating RAMP before BME has little effect on model performance near stations, but strongly increases R 2 by 0.15 at locations farther from stations, shown through a checkerboard cross-validation. Corrections to estimates differ based on location in space and time, confirming heterogeneity. We quantify the likelihood of exceeding selected ozone levels, finding that parts of the Middle East, India, and China are most likely to exceed 55 parts per billion (ppb) in 2017. About 96% of the global population was exposed to ozone levels above the World Health Organization guideline of 60 µg m −3 (30 ppb) in 2017. Our annual fine-resolution ozone estimates may be useful for several applications including epidemiology and assessments of impacts on health, agriculture, and ecosystems.

Ozone↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning mathematical models for incidence estimation during pandemics

Accurate estimates of the incidence of infectious diseases are key for the control of epidemics. However, healthcare systems are often unable to test the population exhaustively, especially when asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases are widespread; this leads to significant and systematic under-reporting of the real incidence. Here, we propose a machine learning approach to estimate the incidence of a pandemic in real-time, using reported cases and the overall test rate. In particular, we use Bayesian symbolic regression to automatically learn the closed-form mathematical models that most parsimoniously describe incidence. We develop and validate our models using COVID-19 incidence values for nine different countries, confirming their ability to accurately predict daily incidence. Remarkably, despite the differences in epidemic trajectories and dynamics across countries, we find that a single model for all countries offers a more parsimonious description and is more predictive of actual incidence compared to separate models for each country. Our results show the potential to accurately model incidence in real-time using closed-form mathematical models, providing a valuable tool for public health decision-makers.

Fajardo-Fontiveros, Oscar (ORCID:0000000207058972)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Targeted metabolomic analysis identifies increased serum levels of GABA and branched chain amino acids in canine diabetes

Introduction Dogs with naturally occurring diabetes mellitus represent a potential model for human type 1 diabetes, yet signifcant knowledge voids exist in terms of the pathogenic mechanisms underlying the canine disorder. Untargeted metabolomic studies from a limited number of diabetic dogs identifed similarities to humans with the disease. Objective To expand and validate earlier metabolomic studies, identify metabolites that difer consistently between diabetic and healthy dogs, and address whether certain metabolites might serve as disease biomarkers. Methods Untargeted metabolomic analysis via liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry was performed on serum from diabetic (n=15) and control (n=15) dogs. Results were combined with those of our previously published studies using identical methods (12 diabetic and 12 control dogs) to identify metabolites consistently diferent between the groups in all 54 dogs. Thirty-two candidate biomarkers were quantifed using targeted metabolomics. Biomarker concentrations were compared between the groups using multiple linear regression (corrected P<0.0051 considered signifcant). Results Untargeted metabolomics identifed multiple persistent diferences in serum metabolites in diabetic dogs compared with previous studies. Therefore, targeted metabolomics showed increases in gamma amino butyric acid, valine, leucine, isoleucine, citramalate, and 2-hydroxyisobutyric acid in diabetic versus control dogs while indoxyl sulfate, N-acetyl-L-aspartic acid, kynurenine, anthranilic acid, tyrosine, glutamine, and tauroursodeoxycholic acid were decreased. Conclusion Several of these fndings parallel metabolomic studies in both human diabetes and other animal models of this disease. Given recent studies on the role of GABA and branched chain amino acids in human diabetes, the increase in serum concentrations in canine diabetes warrants further study of these metabolites as potential biomarkers, and to identify similarity in mechanisms underlying this disease in humans and dogs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Protein carbamylation and proteomics: from artifacts to elucidation of biological functions

Lysine carbamylation is a non-enzymatic protein post-translational modification (PTM) that plays important roles in regulating enzymatic activity and the pathogenesis of diseases such as atherosclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, and uremia. The progress of understanding the roles of carbamylation in biological systems has been delayed due to lack of systematic assays to study its functions. To aggravate this scenario, carbamylation is a major artifact in proteomics analysis given that urea, which is used during sample preparation, induces carbamylation. In addition, anti-acetyllysine antibodies co-purify carbamylated and acetylated peptides. In a recent paper, we leveraged co-purification with anti-acetyllysine antibodies to develop a method for analyzing carbamylated proteomes. In this perspective article, we discuss how this method may be applied to characterize the physiological functions of carbamylation in humans and other biological models, as well as the utility of establishing novel disease biomarkers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An accurate and interpretable model for antimicrobial resistance in pathogenic Escherichia coli from livestock and companion animal species

Understanding the microbial genomic contributors to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is essential for early detection of emerging AMR infections, a pressing global health threat in human and veterinary medicine. Here we used whole genome sequencing and antibiotic susceptibility test data from 980 disease causing Escherichia coli isolated from companion and farm animals to model AMR genotypes and phenotypes for 24 antibiotics. We determined the strength of genotype-to-phenotype relationships for 197 AMR genes with elastic net logistic regression. Model predictors were designed to evaluate different potential modes of AMR genotype translation into resistance phenotypes. Our results show a model that considers the presence of individual AMR genes and total number of AMR genes present from a set of genes known to confer resistance was able to accurately predict isolate resistance on average (mean F 1 score = 98.0%, SD = 2.3%, mean accuracy = 98.2%, SD = 2.7%). However, fitted models sometimes varied for antibiotics in the same class and for the same antibiotic across animal hosts, suggesting heterogeneity in the genetic determinants of AMR resistance. We conclude that an interpretable AMR prediction model can be used to accurately predict resistance phenotypes across multiple host species and reveal testable hypotheses about how the mechanism of resistance may vary across antibiotics within the same class and across animal hosts for the same antibiotic.

Chung, Henri C.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of chronic kidney disease progression using recurrent neural network and electronic health records

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive loss in kidney function. Early detection of patients who will progress to late-stage CKD is of paramount importance for patient care. To address this, we develop a pipeline to process longitudinal electronic heath records (EHRs) and construct recurrent neural network (RNN) models to predict CKD progression from stages II/III to stages IV/V. The RNN model generates predictions based on time-series records of patients, including repeated lab tests and other clinical variables. Our investigation reveals that using a single variable, the recorded estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time, the RNN model achieves an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.957 for predicting future CKD progression. When additional clinical variables, such as demographics, vital information, lab test results, and health behaviors, are incorporated, the average AUROC increases to 0.967. In both scenarios, the standard deviation of the AUROC across cross-validation trials is less than 0.01, indicating a stable and high prediction accuracy. Our analysis results demonstrate the proposed RNN model outperforms existing standard approaches, including static and dynamic Cox proportional hazards models, random forest, and LightGBM. The utilization of the RNN model and the time-series data of previous eGFR measurements underscores its potential as a straightforward and effective tool for assessing the clinical risk of CKD patients concerning their disease progression.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Computational Models of the Eye and their Applications in Long Duration Space Flight

Astronauts are exposed to cephalad fluid shift, increased carbon dioxide levels and other environmental factors during space flight. As a result of these conditions, it is believed that they are at risk of developing increased intracranial pressure (ICP) and intraocular pressure (IOP), which in turn may cause papilledema and other disorders of the eye that can lead to temporary or permanent changes in vision. However, the mechanisms behind this risk are not fully understood. Ground analog and flight studies pose challenges because there are limited non-invasive methods that can be used to study the eye and intracranial space. Therefore it is proposed that computational models can be applied to help address this gap by providing a low cost method for studying the effects of IOP, ICP and various properties of the eye on these diseases. The information presented by the authors provides a summary of several models found in literature that could potentially be augmented and applied to inform research. Specifically, finite element models of the optic nerve head, sclera and other structures of the eye can be readily adapted as potential building blocks. These models may also be integrated with a brain/cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) model which will take into account the interaction between the CSF fluid and its pressure on the optic nerve. This integration can enable the study of the effects of microgravity on the interaction between the vasculature system and CSF system and can determine the effects of these changes on the optic nerve, and in turn the eye. Ultimately, it can help pinpoint the influences of long-term exposure to microgravity on vision and inform the future research into countermeasure development. In addition to spaceflight, these models can provide deeper understanding of the mechanisms of glaucoma, papilledema and other eye disorders observed in terrestrial conditions.

Chen, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Prentice Award Lecture: Advancing Retinal Imaging and Visual Function in Patient Management and Disease Mechanisms

Patient-based research plays a key role in probing basic visual mechanisms. Less-well recognized is the role of patient-based retinal imaging and visual function studies in elucidating disease mechanisms, which are accelerated by advances in imaging and function techniques and are most powerful when combined with the results from histology and animal models. A patient's visual complaints can be one key to patient management, but human data are also key to understanding disease mechanisms. Unfortunately, pathological changes can be difficult to detect. Before advanced retinal imaging, the measurement of visual function indicated the presence of pathological changes that were undetectable with existing clinical examination. Over the past few decades, advances in retinal imaging have increasingly revealed the unseen. This has led to great strides in the management of many diseases, particularly diabetic retinopathy and macular edema, and age-related macular degeneration. It is likely widely accepted that patient-based research, as in clinical trials, led to such positive outcomes. Both visual function measures and advanced retinal imaging have clearly demonstrated differences among retinal diseases. Contrary to initial thinking, sight-threatening damage in diabetes occurs to the outer retina and not only to the inner retina. This has been clearly indicated in patient results but has only gradually entered the clinical classifications and understanding of disease etiology. There is strikingly different pathophysiology for age-related macular degeneration compared with photoreceptor and retinal pigment epithelial genetic defects, yet research models and even some treatments confuse these. It is important to recognize the role that patient-based research plays in probing basic visual mechanisms and elucidating disease mechanisms, combining these findings with the concepts from histology and animal models. Thus, this article combines sample instrumentation from my laboratory and progress in the fields of retinal imaging and visual function.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Potential reductions in fine particulate matter and premature mortality following implementation of air pollution controls on coal-fired power plants in India

Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) account for > 70% of electricity generation in India, but < 5% of facilities have installed technologies for sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and nitrogen oxide (NO X ) removal. Emissions of these pollutants lead to the formation of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and an increased risk of premature mortality for exposed populations. Here, we use a nested version of the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (0.5° × 0.625° resolution) for India to estimate reductions in PM 2.5 concentrations that could have been achieved by implementing existing emission control technologies like flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and/or selective catalytic reduction (SCR). We quantify the associated burden of disease using the integrated exposure response (IER) and global exposure mortality model (GEMM) functions and compare the costs of premature mortality to those for FGD installation. Model simulations for 2010 suggest installation of FGD would have reduced mean annual PM 2.5 concentrations across India by 8%, compared to 3% with SCR installation, and 11% with both FGD and SCR. A 7–28% reduction in PM 2.5 was simulated for local communities closest to CFPPs (same model grid cell), leading to up to 17% reduction in annual premature mortality. Overall, more than 0.21–0.48 million premature deaths would have been avoided over a 10-year period if FGD had been implemented on all CFPPs, compared to 0.09–0.21 million with SCR and 0.22–0.72 million with both FGD and SCR. Benefits associated with such actions are approximately $\$18.1$–$\$604$ billion USD per year, which is equivalent to ~ 0.44 to 10% of India’s GDP. These results suggest that monetary benefits from avoided premature mortality far outweigh the capital and operational costs of FGD and/or SCR installation of $\$19.5$ billion and/or $\$32.8$ billion per year, respectively. This information is essential because the high costs of installation and operation are often given as reasons for delaying installation and commissioning. Finally, we conclude that policy actions to control air pollution from CFPPs are economically justifiable.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plasma proteomics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severity reveals impact on Alzheimer’s and coronary disease pathways

Identification of proteins dysregulated by COVID-19 infection is critically important for better understanding of its pathophysiology, building prognostic models, and identifying new targets. Plasma proteomic profiling of 4,301 proteins was performed in two independent datasets and tested for the association for three COVID-19 outcomes (infection, ventilation, and death). We identified 1,449 proteins consistently associated in both datasets with any of these three outcomes. We subsequently created highly accurate models that distinctively predict infection, ventilation, and death. These proteins were enriched in specific biological processes including cytokine signaling, Alzheimer’s disease, and coronary artery disease. Mendelian randomization and gene network analyses identified eight causal proteins and 141 highly connected hub proteins including 35 with known drug targets. Our findings provide distinctive prognostic biomarkers for two severe COVID-19 outcomes, reveal their relationship to Alzheimer’s disease and coronary artery disease, and identify potential therapeutic targets for COVID-19 outcomes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

COVID-19: Effects of Environmental Conditions on the Propagation of Respiratory Droplets

As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to spread, a detailed understanding on the transmission mechanisms is of paramount importance. The disease transmits mainly through respiratory droplets and aerosol. Although models for the evaporation and trajectory of respiratory droplets have been developed, how the environment impacts the transmission of COVID-19 is still unclear. In this study, we investigate the propagation of respiratory droplets and aerosol particles generated by speech under a wide range of temperatures (0–40 °C) and relative humidity (0–92%) conditions. We show that droplets can travel three times farther in low-temperature and high-humidity environment, whereas the number of aerosol particles increases in high-temperature and low-humidity environments. The results also underscore the importance of proper ventilation, as droplets and aerosol spread significantly farther in airstreams. This study contributes to the understanding of the environmental impact on COVID-19 transmission.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1978

Candidate substances for space bioprocessing methodology and data specification for benefit evaluation

Analytical and quantitative economic techniques are applied to the evaluation of the economic benefits of a wide range of substances for space bioprocessing. On the basis of expected clinical applications, as well as the size of the patient that could be affected by the clinical applications, eight substances are recommended for further benefit evaluation. Results show that a transitional probability methodology can be used to model at least one clinical application for each of these substances. In each recommended case, the disease and its therapy are sufficiently well understood and documented, and the statistical data is available to operate the model and produce estimates of the impact of new therapy systems on the cost of treatment, morbidity, and mortality. Utilizing the morbidity and mortality information produced by the model, a standard economic technique called the Value of Human Capital is used to estimate the social welfare benefits that could be attributable to the new therapy systems.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerated epigenetic aging as a risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and decreased lung function in two prospective cohort studies

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a frequent diagnosis in older individuals and contributor to global morbidity and mortality. Given the link between lung disease and aging, we need to understand how molecular indicators of aging relate to lung function and disease. Using data from the population-based KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) surveys, we associated baseline epigenetic (DNA methylation) age acceleration with incident COPD and lung function. Models were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, height, weight, and baseline lung disease as appropriate. Associations were replicated in the Normative Aging Study. Of 770 KORA participants, 131 developed incident COPD over 7 years. Baseline accelerated epigenetic aging was significantly associated with incident COPD. The change in age acceleration (follow-up – baseline) was more strongly associated with COPD than baseline aging alone. The association between the change in age acceleration between baseline and follow-up and incident COPD replicated in the Normative Aging Study. Associations with spirometric lung function parameters were weaker than those with COPD, but a meta-analysis of both cohorts provide suggestive evidence of associations. Accelerated epigenetic aging, both baseline measures and changes over time, may be a risk factor for COPD and reduced lung function.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM 2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM 2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM 2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74–1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM 2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52–0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32–0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28–0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of Spirulina for biomanufacturing and the delivery of protein therapeutics

Lumen Bioscience has developed a novel cyanobacterial platform that enormously decreases the cost of pharmaceuticals used to prevent and treat illnesses. Arthrospira platensis (spirulina), is a photosynthetic microorganism that has been consumed as a dietary supplement for centuries in part because of its high protein content. Commercial cultivation operations have matured over the last 50 years to allow large-scale cultivation in outdoor ponds. Lumen recently discovered methods that transform this commercially important cyanobacterium into a genetically tractable platform for bioengineering. The high protein accumulation in spirulina makes it an ideal chassis for heterologous protein expression, and centuries of safe human consumption suggest its utility as an administration vehicle for biologic drugs. Lumen can express a broad range of recombinant proteins in spirulina and has developed manufacturing processes and strains to mucosally deliver bioactive proteins to treat and/or prevent disease. For example, Lumen has produced an oral cocktail of dried whole-cell spirulina biomass, containing 3 toxin-neutralizing antibodies and 1 endolysin, that is efficacious in a preclinical in vivo models of C. difficile infection. Lumen has also demonstrated that intranasal administration of a spirulina-manufactured neutralizing antibody can prevent disease by a respiratory pathogen, SARS-CoV-2, in a hamster model. Lumen’s current pipeline includes therapeutics to treat or prevent C. difficile infection, COVID-19, inflammatory bowel disease, cardiometabolic disease, and traveler’s diarrhea. Lumen deploys strategies to maximize the expression of these therapeutics for optimal dose sizing, a key limiting factor with past food crop-based expression systems. Spirulina can express exogenous proteins at unusually high levels (>15% of dry weight) but reaching this maximum value requires optimization of multiple interacting factors. We describe our current statistics design of experiments approach that optimizes these factors with minimal replicates. This maximizes exogenous protein expression allowing Lumen to generate spirulina-based therapeutics for a rapidly expanding range of medical uses.

Heinnickel, Mark↗