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400 records · Page 23

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Resolving ECRH deposition broadening due to edge turbulence in DIII-D

Microwave heat pulse propagation experiments have demonstrated a correlation between millimeter-scale turbulence and deposition profile broadening of electron cyclotron (EC) waves on the DIII-D tokamak. In a set of discharges in DIII-D, a variation in edge density fluctuations on the mm-scale is associated with 40%–150% broader deposition profiles, expressed in terms of normalized minor radius, as compared with equilibrium ray tracing. The 1D power profile is determined from transport analysis of the electron temperature response to EC power modulation using perturbative analysis with a square wave power modulation at 20–70 Hz, producing a series of Fourier harmonics that are fit collectively to resolve transport. Fitting an integrated heat flux expressed in the Fourier basis of the modulation to diffusive, convective, and coupled transport terms in a linear model can resolve the broadened EC deposition width from the power perturbation to resolve a broadening in each case. The best fit degree of beam broadening observed scales approximately linearly with the Doppler backscattering measured fluctuation level in the steep gradient region. Quantifying the effect of edge fluctuation broadening on EC current drive power needs of future devices will require 3D full-wave codes that can be validated on the current generation of machines. These DIII-D experiments provide a quantitative measure of fluctuation effects and a dataset to benchmark full-wave simulations that can model and eventually predict nonlinear effects neglected by 1D equilibrium beam and ray tracing.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A NICER View of the Massive Pulsar PSR J0740+6620 Informed by Radio Timing and XMM-Newton Spectroscopy

We report on Bayesian estimation of the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray Timing Instrument event data. We condition on informative pulsar mass, distance, and orbital inclination priors derived from the joint North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves and Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment/Pulsar wideband radio timing measurements of Fonseca et al. We use XMM-Newton European Photon Imaging Camera spectroscopic event data to inform our X-ray likelihood function. The prior support of the pulsar radius is truncated at 16 km to ensure coverage of current dense matter models. We assume conservative priors on instrument calibration uncertainty. We constrain the equatorial radius and mass of PSR J0740+6620 to be ${12.39}_{-0.98}^{+1.30}$ km and ${2.072}_{-0.066}^{+0.067}$ M ⊙ respectively, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the 16% and 84% quantiles, conditional on surface hot regions that are non-overlapping spherical caps of fully ionized hydrogen atmosphere with uniform effective temperature; a posteriori, the temperature is ${\mathrm{log}}_{10}(T\,[{\rm{K}}])={5.99}_{-0.06}^{+0.05}$ for each hot region. All software for the X-ray modeling framework is open-source and all data, model, and sample information is publicly available, including analysis notebooks and model modules in the Python language. Furthermore, our marginal likelihood function of mass and equatorial radius is proportional to the marginal joint posterior density of those parameters (within the prior support) and can thus be computed from the posterior samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Pre-Ionization Controlled Laser Plasma Formation for Ignition Applications (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This report consists of three grand funded papers. Abstracts for each follow. 1) In this work, we present experimental and modeling studies of air pre-ionization using ultraviolet (UV) laser pulses and its effect on laser breakdown of an overlapped near-infrared (NIR) pulse. Experimental studies are conducted with a 266 nm beam (fourth harmonic of Nd:YAG) for UV pre-ionization and an overlapped 1064 nm NIR beam (fundamental of Nd:YAG), both having pulse duration of 10 ns. Results show that the UV beam produces a pre-ionized volume which assists in breakdown of the NIR beam, leading to reduction in NIR breakdown threshold by factor of >2. Numerical modeling is performed to examine the ionization and breakdown of both beams. The modeled breakdown threshold of the NIR, including assist by pre-ionization, is in reasonable agreement with the experimental results. 2) The present contribution compares the energy absorption, optical emission, temperature, and fluid dynamics of ultraviolet (UV) λ = 266 nm and near infrared (NIR) λ = 1064 nm nanosecond laser induced plasmas in ambient air. For UV pulses at the conditions studied, energy absorption by the plasmas increases relatively gradually with laser pulse energy starting at delivered energy of E~8 mJ. Corresponding measurements of plasma luminosity show that the absorption of UV radiation does not necessarily result in visible plasma emission. For the NIR induced plasmas, the energy absorption profile is far more abrupt and begins at ~55 mJ. In contrast with UV, the absorption of NIR radiation is always accompanied by intense optical emission. The temperatures of both types of plasma have been measured with Rayleigh scattering thermometry (at times after the Thomson signal sufficiently diminishes). The UV plasmas can attain a wider range of temperatures, including lower temperatures, depending on the pulse energy (e.g., T ~400–2000K for E ~7–35 mJ at Δt = 10 μs after the pulse) while the NIR plasmas show only hotter temperatures (e.g., T ~ 12 000 K for E = 75 mJ at Δt = 10 μs after the pulse) as is consistent with the literature. Differences in the fluid dynamics for UV versus NIR pulses are shown with Schlieren imaging. In this work, the contrast in the UV and NIR plasma threshold behavior is attributed to differing roles of avalanche ionization and multiphoton ionization as is also illustrated by a simple numerical model. 3) The present contribution examines the impact of plasma dynamics and plasma-driven fluid dynamics on the flame growth of laser ignited mixtures and shows that a new dual-pulse scheme can be used to control the kernel formation process in ways that extend the lean ignition limit. We perform a comparative study between (conventional) single-pulse laser ignition (λ = 1064 nm) and a novel dual-pulse method based on combining an ultraviolet (UV) pre-ionization pulse (λ = 266 nm) with an overlapped near-infrared (NIR) energy addition pulse (λ = 1064 nm). We employ OH* chemiluminescence to visualize the evolution of the early flame kernel. For single-pulse laser ignition at lean conditions, the flame kernel separates through third lobe detachment, corresponding to high strain rates that extinguish the flame. In this work, we investigate the capabilities of the dual-pulse to control the plasma-driven fluid dynamics by adjusting the axial offset of the two focal points. In particular, we find there exists a beam waist offset whereby the resulting vorticity suppresses formation of the third lobe, consequently reducing flame stretch. With this approach, we demonstrate that the dual-pulse method enables reduced flame speeds (at early times), an extended lean limit, increased combustion efficiency, and decreased laser energy requirements.

Mechanical engineering↗