Rethinking solar PV contracts in a world of increasing curtailment risk
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O'Shaughnessy, Eric↗
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Results for “Economic Optimization”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Economic evaluation of infrastructures for thermochemical upcycling of post-consumer plastic waste
Thermochemical technologies, such as pyrolysis, offer a potentially scalable pathway for upcycling diverse types of plastic waste (PW) into value-added chemicals. However, deploying these technologies in waste management infrastructures is not straightforward because such systems involve a wide range of interdependent stakeholders, processing facilities, and products. In this work, we present a holistic optimization framework that integrates value-chain analysis, techno-economic analysis, and life-cycle analysis for investigating the economic viability and environmental benefits of upcycling infrastructures that collect, sort, clean, and process post-consumer PW for producing virgin polymer resins. The framework is applied to a case study in the upper Midwest region of the US. Our analysis reveals that the infrastructures are economically viable and could activate a regional circular economy that generates over 1 billion USD in annual profit. Moreover, our analysis reveals that this economy can reduce the carbon footprint of PW incineration by half. Our framework also determines the inherent values of post-consumer PW and of derived products such as plastic bales and pyrolysis oil; we find that, in these infrastructures, PW becomes a highly valuable feedstock with a market value of 500 USD per tonne. Here, we discuss how this market value can generate incentives that foster more effective waste pre-sorting practices by consumers that can help bypass material recycling facilities and increase total system profit.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model
The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Conceptual Design of Integrated Energy Systems with Market Interaction Surrogate Models
Most integrated energy system (IES) optimization frameworks employ the price-taker approximation, which ignores important interactions with market and can result in overestimated economic values. In this work, we pro-pose a machine learning surrogate-assisted optimization framework to quantify the IES/market interactions and thus go beyond price taker. We use time series clustering to generate representative IES operation profiles for the IES optimization problem and use machine learning surrogate models to predict the IES/market interaction. We quantify the accuracy of the time series clustering and surrogate models in a case study to optimally retrofit a nuclear power plant with polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzer to co-produce electricity and hydrogen.
Chen, Xinhe↗
Relaxations of the steady optimal gas flow problem for a non-Ideal gas
Natural gas ranks second in U.S. primary energy consumption. Because most production sites are remote, gas must be transported through pipeline networks equipped with compressors, valves, and other components. For both economic efficiency and system reliability, it is desirable to operate these networks optimally. The governing physics across pipeline components entails nonlinear, non-convex equality and inequality constraints, and the most general steady-flow operations problem is a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Program (MINLP).This work focuses on one such steady-flow problem-the Optimal Gas Flow (OGF) for a natural gas pipeline network-which minimizes production cost subject to the steady-flow physics. For day-to-day operations, the ability to quickly compute a globally optimal solution and a strong lower bound for varying demand profiles is crucial. A promising strategy is to build tight relaxations of the OGF’s nonlinear constraints. However, many nonlinearities arising from non-ideal equations of state either lack relaxations or have relaxations that do not scale to realistic network sizes. We address this gap by combining recent advances in polyhedral relaxations for univariate functions to construct tight, computationally efficient relaxations of the OGF with a non-ideal equation of state. These relaxations solve within seconds on a standard laptop. In conclusion, we demonstrate their quality through extensive numerical experiments on very large-scale test networks from the literature and find that the proposed approach proves optimality in 92% of tested instances.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Techno-economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of Gluconic Acid and Xylonic Acid Production from Waste Materials
Organic acid-based bioleaching has attracted significant research interest for the recovery of rare earth elements(REEs) and other critical metals. Utilizing biologically produced leaching agents, known as biolixiviants, derived from waste materials holds great promise for enhancing the economic viability and environmental sustainability of bioleaching processes. Here this study focuses on the modeling and optimization of biolixiviant production using corn stover (CS), date palm clippings (DP), and nonrecyclable paper (NP). Techno-economic analysis revealed that gluconic acid production from NP is more cost-effective than that from CS and DP, with respective costs of $0.04/kg, $0.06−0.08/kg, and $0.06−0.09/kg of the biolixiviant, yielding gluconic acid concentrations of 135.39, 172.90, and 176.87 mM, respectively. Life cycle assessment demonstrated that biolixiviant production from NP exerts the lowest environmental impact compared with the other evaluated substrates. When applied to the bioleaching of a neodymium−iron−boron magnet swarf, the biolixiviant derived from NP exhibits the highest leaching efficiencies, confirming its cost and environmental competitiveness in comparison to CS and DP
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Renewable hydrogen and ammonia for combined heat and power systems in remote locations: Optimal design and scheduling
Abstract Using hydrogen (H ) and ammonia (NH ) for renewable energy storage has the potential to enable economical power and heat supply with high renewable penetrations, especially in remote locations which are characterized by high energy costs. In this work we assess the economic competitiveness of renewable combined heat and power (CHP) systems in Mahaka HI, Nantucket MA, and Northwest Arctic Borough (NWAB) AK by optimally designing these systems for scenarios in which power and heat can be purchased over a range of historical energy prices as well as when 100% renewable supply is required. We use a combined optimal design and scheduling model which minimizes annualized net present cost by determining optimal technology selection and size simultaneously with optimal schedules for each period of a system operating horizon aggregated from full year hourly resolution data via a consecutive temporal clustering algorithm. We find that renewable generation meets at least 85% of power demands and 75% of heat demands under the lowest energy prices investigated. Higher conventional energy prices lead to increased renewable penetration which is facilitated by renewable NH as a seasonal energy storage medium, as are 100% renewable CHP systems. NH is used for power generation with heat cogeneration in all three locations, as well as directly for heating in NWAB. On an annual cost basis, NH ‐enabled 100% renewable CHP is only 3% more expensive in Mahaka and NWAB than systems which can purchase energy at the lowest prices, while it is 15% more expensive in Nantucket.
Palys, Matthew J.↗
Techno-Economic Analysis of CSP Incorporating sCO2 Brayton Power Cycles: Trade-Off Between Cost and Performance
Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants, thanks to the implementation of cost-competitive thermal energy storage, represent a dispatchable zero-emission alternative to traditional fossil fuel power plants. Next generation solar towers are expected to adopt high temperature receivers (>700 degrees C) coupled to sCO2-based power blocks, which optimal design is generally pushed towards the maximum cycle efficiency, often neglecting the economic impact with the justification that the main share of the capital cost is represented by the heliostat field. As result, the scientific literature lacks in comprehensive studies on techno-economic evaluation of CSP+sCO2 power plants addressing the important correlation that exists between system cost and performances. This work provides a preliminary techno-economic analysis of a solar power tower comparing four different cycle configurations for the sCO2 power block. Results have been reported on a Pareto front, highlighting the tradeoff between the plant investment cost and the solar-to-electricity plant efficiency. The trends of the optimization variables and cycle results have been reported to give useful insights about proper assumptions for the sCO2 power block design. The recompressed cycle with intercooling resulted as the most promising configuration and it has been further analyzed through a comparison of different solutions on the Pareto front. The cost breakdown of the sCO2 power block has been reported to highlight which components have the greatest impact on the overall plant cost and how they vary along the optimal solutions front. Eventually, the optimization has been repeated introducing a correlation to compute the turbomachinery isentropic efficiencies, to investigate their effect on the techno- economic analysis.
concentrated solar power↗
A Systematic Review and Integrated Approach to Modeling of Aging Utility Scale PV Systems
The growing deployment of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased the importance of techno-economic modeling operational photovoltaic (PV) systems for predicting energy yield, optimizing asset management, and informing financial decisions. Through a systematic review of literature and current industry practices, we review the different common modeling practices of a system's configuration and age, performance and degradation, operation and maintenance (O&M), while also focusing on specific considerations for repowering, revamping, and decommissioning. Building on the synthesis, we develop a structured framework for techno-economic modeling of operating PV systems that integrate performance and degradation analysis, a decommissioning and repowering cost model that estimates the system's end-of-life costs to reduce uncertainty quantifications and improve consistency across the sector. This research contributes to improved modeling methodologies and potentially to reduced financial performance requirements by providing practitioners with input resources and practical approaches to estimate performance, degradation, and costs associated with continued operation, revamping, repowering, or decommissioning decisions.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Optimal Sizing and Dispatch of Solar Power with Storage
Designers of utility-scale solar plants with storage, seeking to maximize some aspect of plant performance, face multiple challenges. In many geographic locations, there is significant penetration of photovoltaic generation, which depresses energy prices during the hours of solar availability. An energy storage system affords the opportunity to dispatch during higher-priced time periods, but complicates plant design and dispatch decisions. Solar resource variability compounds these challenges, because determining optimal system sizes requires simultaneously considering how the plant will be operated under the imposed market and weather conditions. We develop an approach to analyze the economic performance of hybrid and single-technology solar power plants, which incorporates optimal dispatch, and considers the expected electricity market and weather conditions. We utilize the System Advisor Model software package to simulate the operation of multiple renewable generation and energy storage technologies, in conjunction with hourly-fidelity generation decisions determined by a revenue-maximizing, mixed-integer linear program. We show that, under our assumed market and weather conditions, the lifetime benefit-to-cost ratio can be improved by 6 to 19 percent, relative to a baseline design without optimizing, and that a concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage design produces significantly more energy per year, but is less profitable under our cost assumptions.
black-box optimization↗
Dynamic Process Intensification via Data-Driven Dynamic Optimization: Concept and Application to Ternary Distillation
Process intensification is a design philosophy aimed at making chemical processes safer and more efficient. Its implementation often results in significant modifications to the design and structure of the process, with several conventional unit operations occurring in the same physical device. Traditionally, process intensification has focused on steady-state operation. In our previous works, we introduced dynamic process intensification (DPI) as a new intensification paradigm based on operational changes for conventional or intensified units. DPI is predicated on switching operation between two auxiliary steady states selected via a steady-state optimization calculation that ensures that the system generates, on average and over time, the same products as in nominal steady-state operation, but with favorable economics. This paper extends the DPI concept and introduces a novel dynamic optimization-based DPI strategy (Do-DPI) that involves imposing a true cyclic operation rather than switching between two discrete states. We discuss its implementation using surrogate dynamic models learned via system identification. Here, an extensive case study concerning a ternary distillation column separating a canonical hydrocarbon mixture shows that Do-DPI can reduce energy use by more than 4% relative to steady-state operation, with no significant deviations in product quality and production rate.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Optimization of Conditions for Photoluminescence-Based Sensing of Critical Minerals: Strategies and Outlook
Economically critical minerals and metals are vital to America’s security, with application areas in energy, advanced technologies, and defense systems. The growing implementation of renewable energy sources such as electric vehicles is expected to significantly increase demand for these minerals, while the global supply is monopolistic, with most of the production occurring in a few countries outside of the US. To mitigate potential supply chain vulnerabilities, the domestic production of economically critical metals has become a bipartisan priority of the US government, and unconventional sources such as coal and its utilization byproducts such as fly ash and acid mine drainage are being actively explored as an alternative method for meeting domestic demand. Slow and expensive characterization methods for critical metals present a significant pain point for domestic production, which has led to the exploration of alternative low-cost, portable platforms capable of detecting target metals during resource prospecting and downstream process monitoring. The National Energy Technology Laboratory has developed a portable fiber optic-based luminescence spectrometer that utilizes a metal-organic framework (MOF) material to detect and distinguish parts-per-billion levels of the visible-emitting rare earth elements terbium, dysprosium, samarium, and europium, which are all economically critical metals. Although preliminary results with this system are promising, a crucial barrier to practical deployment is the ability to operate in low pH, high ionic strength environments, as acidic conditions and the presence of other metal ions can significantly reduce luminescence signal. Here, current strategies related to sample treatment, material design, and sensor configuration are discussed in the context of improving sensor performance in application-relevant conditions. Additionally, future opportunities, such as the optimization of the sensing binding environment through computational methods and specific metals to be removed for treatment will be discussed, presenting a forward-looking view for innovation in luminescent sensing of critical metals.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Profitability, Scalability and Optimized Siting for Waste-to-Energy Supply Chains: A Case Study on Hydrothermal Liquefaction
Waste-to-Energy (WtE) conversion technologies have the potential to simultaneously reduce waste volumes, treatment-related emissions, and carbon intensity while producing valuable energy services. However, questions remain regarding under which conditions emerging WtE technologies are feasible to deploy. In this project, we develop an optimized siting method for WtE technologies to assess cost-effective WtE processor locations, throughput scales, and profitability. We apply the model using Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) as an example WtE technology. We develop calibrated capital and operating expense cost curves based on literature data to study the techno-economic characteristics of WtE supply chains. Prior to solving the siting optimization, we analyze the model parameters to describe organic waste management system behavior under four different HTL deployment configurations: Co-Processing, where HTL plants send biocrude to existing conventional refineries via assumed pipelines; Co-Location, where biorefineries are co-located with HTL plants; and two alternative Standalone Biorefining cases, where distributed HTL plants transport biocrude intermediate via either assumed pipelines or trucking to centralized biorefineries. We also define and apply several feedstock gate fee calculations, representing different revenue distribution options, to investigate how bioproduct value could impact WtE supply chain economics in terms of waste producer and processor profit or cost reduction.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Structural design and optimization of a series of 13.2 MW downwind rotors
The quest for reduced LCOE has driven significant growth in wind turbine size. A key question to enable larger rotor designs is how to configure and optimize structural designs to constrain blade mass and cost while satisfying a growing set of challenging structural design requirements. In this paper, we investigate the performance of a series of three two-bladed downwind rotors with different blade lengths (104.3-m, 122.9-m, and 143.4-m) all rated at 13.2 MW. The primary goals are to achieve 25% rotor mass and 25% LCOE reduction. A comparative analysis of the structural performance and economics of this family rotors is presented. To further explore optimization opportunities for large rotors, we present new results in a root and spar cap design optimization. In summary, we present structural design solutions that achieve 25% rotor mass reduction in a SUMR13i design (104.3-m) and 25% LCOE reduction in a SUMR13C design (143.4-m).
Yao, Shulong↗
Exploring the benefits of utilizing small modular device for sustainable and flexible shale gas water management
Growing shale gas extraction in recent years has triggered wide discussions on the associated freshwater requirement and wastewater management. Many optimization approaches have been developed for shale gas water management; however, most of the studies assumed permanent utilization of wastewater treatment facilities with fixed capacities. Considering the rapidly declining characteristics of shale gas wastewater production, these treatment facilities could remain largely underutilized after the first few months/years of production, making them less economically attractive. To maximize the capacity utilization of treatment facilities and further improve the economic performance of shale gas development, this study develops a systematic optimization framework, where the capacity strategy of conventional treatment facilities and utilization of the recent concept of modular manufacturing are both considered for flexible shale gas water management. The proposed mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model simultaneously optimizes the design and planning of integrated shale gas and water supply chain, with a focus on capacity planning for both large-scale conventional treatment facilities and small-scale modular devices. A series of Marcellus-based case studies are performed to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model and provide general insights into the trade-offs between the multiple types of treatment facilities. The optimization results reveal that the combinatorial utilization of conventional facilities and modular devices for wastewater treatment (66% by conventional facilities and 34% by modular devices) brings 9.3% more reused water for other well development and 6.2% savings in water-related costs, compared to flexible management of only conventional facilities. Furthermore, this work suggests that taking modular device as auxiliary equipment for shale gas water management is most beneficial to increase the capacity utilization of treatment facilities and achieve a more economic and sustainable shale gas production system.
04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
Superstructure Optimization of Waste Plastic Pyrolysis, Integrating Thermal, Catalytic, and Plasma Technologies with Machine Learning
Global plastic waste generation exceeds 430 million tonnes per year, yet fewer than 9% are recycled in the United States. Pyrolysis offers a chemical recycling route at scale, but existing techno-economic and life cycle assessments fix product yields to single pure polymers, producing economic and environmental outputs that break down when the feed composition changes. Here, we present a superstructure optimization framework that addresses this by embedding a composition-aware random forest yield predictor, trained on 566 pyrolysis experiments, within a full-scale process simulation. Product distributions update automatically as feed allocation shifts across four reactor chemistries: conventional thermal, catalytic (HZSM-5), thermal oxo-degradation, and nonequilibrium CO2 plasma. The optimal superstructure achieves minimum selling prices of −0.56 to −0.76/kg feed and global warming potentials of −0.276 to −0.322 kg CO2-eq/kg feed across four commodity price scenarios, confirming profitable, carbon-negative operation without tipping fees. Carbon abatement costs of $\$$0.46 to $\$$1.25/kg CO2-eq are competitive with direct air capture. Sensitivity analysis shows that the catalytic-plasma split fraction is the single largest driver of both economic and climate performance, while hydrocracking allocation in the wax upgrading stage is emission-neutral across the full variable range. Mixed plastic waste streams, evaluated as composition-variable feedstocks rather than pure resins, are profitable and carbon-negative across realistic market conditions. These results give a quantitative basis for reactor selection, circular economy investment, and policy design targeting chemical recycling on a large scale.
Life cycle assessment↗
A multi-objective optimization model for cropland design considering profit, biodiversity, and ecosystem services
More sustainable agricultural methods are needed to alleviate the decreases in biodiversity and ecosystem services that have occurred because of industrial agriculture. One such method is the inclusion of alternative crops into croplands that can support biodiversity, reduce erosion and chemical runoff, and sequester carbon in the soil. However, the question of where such crops should be planted to balance competing economic and environmental objectives remains open. To this end, we develop a mixed-integer quadratically constrained program to optimize the layout of a cropland considering economic, biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions, and water quality objectives. We include spatially varying fertilization as a decision variable in addition to crop establishment location. We further include the effect of core area and edges between different crops on biodiversity. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, we apply it to an example field, showing how the optimal cropland design changes as a decision-maker prioritizes different objectives and as edges have different impacts on biodiversity.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Data-Driven Multi-Period Importance Sampling Strategy for Stochastic Economic Dispatch
Power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy (e.g., wind power) require sophisticated approaches to optimize system performance due to uncertainty in short-term system generation capacity. In this paper, we combine a data-driven analog scenario selection method with importance sampling to create a novel scenario construction approach for two-stage stochastic economic dispatch problems with a large number of wind farms on a network. The proposed method produces scenarios with realistic physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. We show how to extend this method to multi-period operations and demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique by simulating economic dispatch operations on a synthetic test system over the course of a week.
data-driven forecasting↗