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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23

Research and development of LANDSAT-based crop inventory techniques

A wide spectrum of technology pertaining to the inventory of crops using LANDSAT without in situ training data is addressed. Methods considered include Bayesian based through-the-season methods, estimation technology based on analytical profile fitting methods, and expert-based computer aided methods. Although the research was conducted using U.S. data, the adaptation of the technology to the Southern Hemisphere, especially Argentina was considered.

Horvath, R.↗

Genomic clocks and evolutionary timescales

For decades, molecular clocks have helped to illuminate the evolutionary timescale of life, but now genomic data pose a challenge for time estimation methods. It is unclear how to integrate data from many genes, each potentially evolving under a different model of substitution and at a different rate. Current methods can be grouped by the way the data are handled (genes considered separately or combined into a 'supergene') and the way gene-specific rate models are applied (global versus local clock). There are advantages and disadvantages to each of these approaches, and the optimal method has not yet emerged. Fortunately, time estimates inferred using many genes or proteins have greater precision and appear to be robust to different approaches.

Evolution, Molecular↗

A Multistep Probability of Collision Computation Algorithm

The two-dimensional probability of collision calculation method is both widely used and computationally efficient. However, Monte Carlo simulations show that this method sometimes fails to provide sufficiently accurate estimates for Earthorbiting satellites. This study presents a multistep algorithm that calculates collision probabilities for all conjunctions, regardless if affected by curvilinear trajectory or time varying covariance dynamics. The algorithm sequentially applies increasingly accurate estimation methods, but only as required for efficiency. Evaluating usage violations for the two-dimensional probability of collision method represents one of the most important steps. Extensive testing demonstrates the efficiency and reliability of the multistep algorithm.

Doyle T. Hall↗

The effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on radio interferometric measurements

A statistical model of water vapor fluctuations is used to describe the effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on radio interferometric measurements. It is assumed that the spatial structure of refractivity is approximated by Kolmogorov turbulence theory, and that the temporal fluctuations are caused by spatial patterns moved over a site by the wind, and these assumptions are examined for the VLBI delay and delay rate observables. The results suggest that the delay rate measurement error is usually dominated by water vapor fluctuations, and water vapor induced VLBI parameter errors and correlations are determined as a function of the delay observable errors. A method is proposed for including the water vapor fluctuations in the parameter estimation method to obtain improved parameter estimates and parameter covariances.

Treuhaft, R. N.↗

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Bootstrap-based confidence interval estimation for thermal security region of bulk power grid

Thermal security region (TSR) is a powerful tool for monitoring and controlling the thermal security of bulk power grid with high penetration of renewable energy. One of the major challenges of TSR in practical application is to obtain the exact analytical expression of the TSR boundary (TSRB) because TSRB is a nonlinear hypersurface described by an implicit function. For this reason, the TSRB is usually approximated by hyperplane instead of getting the exact analytical expression. Traditionally, the coefficients of the hyperplane are estimated with a set of original TSRB points using least square estimation (LSE). However, LSE is a point estimation method, which is incapable of evaluating the quality of the estimation. In addition, the accuracy and computational efficiency of the hyperplane approximation are influenced by the number of TSRB points significantly. Here, a bootstrap based confidence interval estimation is proposed to estimate not only the coefficients of TSRB approximation hyperplane, but also the standard deviations and confidence intervals of the coefficients for evaluating the quality and reliability of the approximation results. First, empirical distribution functions (EDFs) of the coefficients of TSRB approximation hyperplane are approximated from a set of original TSRB points by using residual resampling bootstrap method. Then, the EDFs of the coefficients are employed to estimate the coefficients of the approximation hyperplane. Meanwhile, the standard deviations and confidence intervals of the estimated coefficients of the hyperplanes are also calculated for evaluating the quality and reliability of the approximation. The proposed approach is tested on the China Southern Power Grid (CSG). Results of simulations validate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approach in approximating the TSRB.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Improved Gas Plume Identification Using Nearest Neighbor Methods for Background Estimation

Longwave infrared (LWIR) hyperspectral imaging (HSI) can be used for many tasks in remote sensing, including detecting and identifying effluent gases by LWIR sensors on airborne platforms. Identification is used after detection to increase confidence in weakly detected plumes, reduce false positives from detection, and distinguish between similar and confounding material signatures. Background estimation is an important step used to reveal the unique spectral characteristics of the detected gas, allowing the identification model to determine what the gas is specifically. The importance of proper background estimation increases when dealing with weak signals, large libraries of gases of interest, and uncommon or heterogeneous backgrounds. In this article, we propose two methods for background estimation: a novel k-nearest segments (KNS) algorithm and the standard k-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm. We test our methods and three existing background estimation methods for comparison against global background estimation to determine which performs best at estimating the true background radiance under a plume and for increasing identification confidence using a neural network classification model. We compare the different methods using 640 simulated weak plumes in an urban environment. For identification, our KNS algorithm improves median neural network identification confidence by 53.2%. For background radiance estimation, the KNN algorithm provides a median of 49 times less RMSE than global background estimation. Furthermore, KNN is the easiest method to tune for different plumes, making it an excellent “out of the box” background estimator.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

An assessment of current methods for drag-due-to-lift minimization at supersonic speeds

The estimation and minimization of drag-due-to-lift at supersonic speeds has been examined in this study. Correlations of theory with experimental data are used to assess the applicability and limitations of the linearized theory. The role of leading-edge thrust and the use of twist and camber to develop distributed thrust are also discussed. A semiempirical design and estimation method which takes into account the shortcomings of the linear theory is presented. The use of this method will allow the design of more nearly optimum lifting surfaces and provide an accurate prediction of their level of performance. A preliminary examination is made of the use of an Euler code for estimation of the aerodynamic characteristics of a twisted and cambered wing.

Mann, Michael J.↗

Evaluating uncertainty-based active learning for accelerating the generalization of molecular property prediction

Deep learning models have proven to be a powerful tool for the prediction of molecular properties for applications including drug design and the development of energy storage materials. However, in order to learn accurate and robust structure–property mappings, these models require large amounts of data which can be a challenge to collect given the time and resource-intensive nature of experimental material characterization efforts. Additionally, such models fail to generalize to new types of molecular structures that were not included in the model training data. The acceleration of material development through uncertainty-guided experimental design has the promise to significantly reduce the data requirements and enable faster generalization to new types of materials. To evaluate the potential of such approaches for electrolyte design applications, we perform comprehensive evaluation of existing uncertainty quantification methods on the prediction of two relevant molecular properties - aqueous solubility and redox potential. We develop novel evaluation methods to probe the utility of the uncertainty estimates for both in-domain and out-of-domain data sets. Finally, we leverage selected uncertainty estimation methods for active learning to evaluate their capacity to support experimental design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

User Guide for TROPICS Data Products

This document provides information for using the data products available from the “Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats” (TROPICS) mission. The TROPICS mission will produce a range of data products that will be available at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). The data products will be produced at the TROPICS Data Processing Center (UW-M SSEC), and consist of Level-1 radiances (antenna and brightness temperatures), Level-2a unified resolution radiance, Level-2b Atmospheric Vertical Temperature Profiles (AVTP), Level-2b Atmospheric Vertical Moisture Profiles (AVMP), Level-2b Instantaneous Surface Rain Rate (ISRR), and Level-2b Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity algorithms to estimate two primary variables: Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and Maximum Sustained Winds (MSW). Two independent intensity estimation methods are included: 1) the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimate algorithm (TCIE) developed at the University of Wisconsin/CIMSS using native microwave brightness temperatures and 2) the Hurricane Intensity and Structure Algorithm (HISA) developed at Colorado State University/CIRA using microwave retrievals of temperature, moisture, and integrated quantities. In addition to MSW and MSLP, HISA also provides estimates of surface wind radii and 2D winds at standard pressure levels. TROPICS is adapting the NOAA STAR Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS) to retrieve the AVTP and AVMP data products. The ISRR algorithm uses the NASA Goddard Precipitation Retrieval and Profiling Scheme (PRPS).

TROPICS↗

Ambient-Frequency-Data Based System-Level Inertia Estimation Using Physical Equation and its Practice on Hawaii Islands

Here, in this paper, a practical ambient-frequency-data-based inertia estimation method using a physical equation is proposed and validated by real measurement data from Hawaii island grids. With high renewable penetration, accurate inertia estimation is important and urgent. Ambient frequency oscillation always exists in power grids, so the proposed method has advantages of real-time inertia estimation and no need for additional disturbances. This paper first developed the physical equation for inertia estimation to offer a clear mechanism for easy implementation in practice. To apply the proposed method in actual grids, a practical method to extract the ambient frequency oscillation from frequency measurement is further proposed. The inertia estimation using the physical equation is validated by KIUC simulation data and HECO field data, in which error rates are around 2% and 8%, respectively. Practical inertia estimation is challenging due to the large amounts of resources contributing to the power grid's effective inertia, but the method provided in this paper can offer a novel way for practical inertia estimation, which can help renewable penetration to boost carbon-free grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Applying transfer matrix method to the estimation of the modal characteristics of the NASA Mini-Mass Truss

It is beneficial to use a distributed parameter model for large space structures because the approach minimizes the number of model parameters. Holzer's transfer matrix method provides a useful means to simplify and standardize the procedure for solving the system of partial differential equations. Any large space structures can be broken down into sub-structures with simple elastic and dynamical properties. For each single element, such as beam, tether, or rigid body, we can derive the corresponding transfer matrix. Combining these elements' matrices enables the solution of the global system equations. The characteristics equation can then be formed by satisfying the appropriate boundary conditions. Then natural frequencies and mode shapes can be determined by searching the roots of the characteristic equation at frequencies within the range of interest. This paper applies this methodology, and the maximum likelihood estimation method, to refine the modal characteristics of the NASA Mini-Mast Truss by successively matching the theoretical response to the test data of the truss. The method is being applied to more complex configurations.

Shen, Ji-Yao↗

Cross-bispectrum computation and variance estimation

A method for the estimation of cross-bispectra of discrete real time series is developed. The asymptotic variance properties of the bispectrum are reviewed, and a method for the direct estimation of bispectral variance is given. The symmetry properties are described which minimize the computations necessary to obtain a complete estimate of the cross-bispectrum in the right-half-plane. A procedure is given for computing the cross-bispectrum by subdividing the domain into rectangular averaging regions which help reduce the variance of the estimates and allow easy application of the symmetry relationships to minimize the computational effort. As an example of the procedure, the cross-bispectrum of a numerically generated, exponentially distributed time series is computed and compared with theory.

Lii, K. S.↗

Absolute magnitude estimation and relative judgement approaches to subjective workload assessment

Two rating scale techniques employing an absolute magnitude estimation method, were compared to a relative judgment method for assessing subjective workload. One of the absolute estimation techniques used was an unidimensional overall workload scale and the other was the multidimensional NASA-Task Load Index technique. Thomas Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process was the unidimensional relative judgment method used. These techniques were used to assess the subjective workload of various single- and dual-tracking conditions. The validity of the techniques was defined as their ability to detect the same phenomena observed in the tracking performance. Reliability was assessed by calculating test-retest correlations. Within the context of the experiment, the Saaty Analytic Hierarchy Process was found to be superior in validity and reliability. These findings suggest that the relative judgment method would be an effective addition to the currently available subjective workload assessment techniques.

Vidulich, Michael A.↗

Monitoring vegetation conditions from LANDSAT for use in range management

A summary of the LANDSAT Great Plains Corridor projects and the principal results are presented. Emphasis is given to the use of satellite acquired phenological data for range management and agri-business activities. A convenient method of reducing LANDSAT MSS data to provide quantitative estimates of green biomass on rangelands in the Great Plains is explained. Suggestions for the use of this approach for evaluating range feed conditions are presented. A LANDSAT Follow-on project has been initiated which will employ the green biomass estimation method in a quasi-operational monitoring of range readiness and range feed conditions on a regional scale.

Haas, R. H.↗

Diffusion-Model-Assisted Supervised Learning of Generative Models for Density Estimation

Here, we present a supervised learning framework of training generative models for density estimation. Generative models, including generative adversarial networks (GANs), normalizing flows, and variational auto-encoders (VAEs), are usually considered as unsupervised learning models, because labeled data are usually unavailable for training. Despite the success of the generative models, there are several issues with the unsupervised training, e.g., requirement of reversible architectures, vanishing gradients, and training instability. To enable supervised learning in generative models, we utilize the score-based diffusion model to generate labeled data. Unlike existing diffusion models that train neural networks to learn the score function, we develop a training-free score estimation method. This approach uses mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimators to directly approximate the score function at any spatial-temporal location in solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE), corresponding to the reverse-time stochastic differential equation (SDE). This approach can offer both high accuracy and substantial time savings in neural network training. Once the labeled data are generated, we can train a simple, fully connected neural network to learn the generative model in the supervised manner. Compared with existing normalizing flow models, our method does not require the use of reversible neural networks and avoids the computation of the Jacobian matrix. Compared with existing diffusion models, our method does not need to solve the reverse-time SDE to generate new samples. As a result, the sampling efficiency is significantly improved. We demonstrate the performance of our method by applying it to a set of 2D datasets as well as real data from the University of California Irvine (UCI) repository.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Synergistic data analytics for electromechanical oscillation in electric power systems

Accurate real-time estimation of the four electromechanical oscillation properties, i.e., dominant oscillation modes, mode shapes, participation factors, and coherent groups, is of great importance to assess and mitigate potential electromechanical oscillations in interconnected power systems. While eigenvalue analysis can realize such estimation, it requires precise linearized dynamic models and accurate parameters, which are highly difficult to obtain in practice. Data fusion-based modal estimation methods can extract the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data without the power system model and parameters, but most of the time only one or two property assessments can be accomplished each time. To overcome this challenge, this paper presents a synergistic data analytics solution to characterize the dynamic behaviors of electromechanical oscillations from real-time measurement data. Here, the proposed method uses optimized variable projection, and it is capable of estimating all four electromechanical oscillation behavior properties from measured responses. Case studies are performed using the simulated measurement data of a 16-generator 68-bus test system and the field measurements collected by the PMUs deployed in the Yunnan Power Grid. The results demonstrate that the proposed synergistic data analytics solution can achieve satisfactory performance in capturing the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data and exhibit strong robustness against measurement noise when compared with existing measurement-based methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗