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DOE OSTI2024

1. Physical Security Engineering by Design for Nuclear Facilities; 2. Nuclear Power Plant Site Security Management – A Security Strategy; 3. The UAE Women in Nuclear Energy Security

1. Security by design, or SeBD, is a comprehensive approach that integrates the physical protection system of a nuclear plant into every stage of its existence. This includes planning, designing, constructing, commissioning, and operating the facility, using a combination of analytical, physical, technological, and procedural measures. Essentially, SeBD involves intentionally applying and incorporating security into all aspects of design and operation throughout the entire lifecycle of a facility. By implementing this methodology throughout various phases such as program development, process implementation, staff training and procedures management in conjunction with plant equipment, facilities can be optimized to minimize security risks without compromising functional design requirements. This ultimately improves the overall security posture of the site and reduces the need for costly modifications or additional security resources post-design. 2. A site security strategy is a living document that is revised on a periodic or event-driven basis, ensuring that site security operations and corresponding procedures provide long-term, effective protection for the entire nuclear power plant (NPP) site. A site security strategy aims to mitigate threats across the entire NPP site via in-depth defense approaches and mutual support; therefore, if a layer is omitted or altered, then the effect across all layers must be re-evaluated. Therefore, the aim of the site security strategy is to provide an appropriate, scalable security regime that deters, denies, delays, and detects incidents and, equally importantly, reassures legitimate users and the regulator that due diligence and regulatory compliance have been achieved, ensuring that the site is safe and secure. Robust access control for vehicles and pedestrians is at the heart of the strategy. Vehicle and pedestrian searching and screening are seen as the strongest mitigation methods against vehicle- and pedestrian-borne attacks. The security strategy must also be supported through comprehensive staff training and the development of robust processes, procedures, and planning. If all these measures are to be effective, then training must be implemented during each phase of construction, partial operation/commissioning, and full operation. No single element of site security is completely isolated from the influence of other elements. Ideally, consideration of all key elements will result in a security strategy that is integrated and proportional to the threat and that does not over specify individual security solutions through the application of isolated measures but rather applies a holistic, all-encompassing approach. 3. When women enter the labor force, numerous positive outcomes emerge, including increased GDP, educational gains, and decreased maternal mortality. Despite these benefits, women's employment rates and equality vary significantly worldwide as does support for women in the workforce. This paper will explore the multifaceted benefits of women's employment, the factors influencing labor force participation rates, and the urgency to achieve gender equality as outlined in the 2015 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It will then examine the emerging presence of women in the traditionally male-dominated nuclear field, specifically within the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a testament to their resilience and determination to break social norms and advance gender equality.

Zineddin, Dr. Z.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing geothermal/solar hybridization – Integrating a solar thermal topping cycle into a geothermal bottoming cycle with energy storage

Geothermal and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies typically use heat at different temperatures in their commercial deployments. This enables a technically viable hybridization of a solar topping cycle and a geothermal bottoming cycle at locations where both resources are available. In this article, an underperforming geothermal power system based at Burley, Idaho is used as a baseline to investigate the technical and economic potential of such a hybrid cycle. A direct thermal energy storage (TES) system is also integrated to overcome the intermittency of the solar resource. Design and off-design behavior of key components are modelled to simulate the annual performance of the hybrid system on an hourly basis. The sizing of the solar field and thermal storage is investigated and is seen to significantly impact the annual electricity generation and efficiency. Various cost scenarios for the solar field and thermal energy storage are investigated. An economic metric - levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) - is used to optimize the solar field sizing and TES capacity. The hybrid plant converts the additional solar heat input into additional work with an efficiency of 32.9%. Retrofitting a geothermal plant with solar and eight hours of energy storage can achieve an LCOE of 0.136 $/kWhe in current cost scenarios and 0.081 $/kWhe in a future cost reduction scenario. Although the hybrid system cannot directly compete with current PV systems without batteries, it has an LCOE 32% lower than that of a PV-battery system. This paper provides insights into the research and development of the future grid with a high renewable energy penetration and encourages further study of energy hybridization for improved efficiencies and economics.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design and requirements of a hydrogen component reliability database (HyCReD)

Hydrogen technologies are expected to play a key role in the decarbonization of several sectors including energy storage and transportation. Rigorous investigation and quantification of the risk and reliability issues associated with hydrogen technologies will be critical to ensuring both their wider adoption and safe, economical operations. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is an important tool that has been used to enable the safe deployment of many engineering systems, including hydrogen fueling stations and hydrogen storage systems. However, QRA studies require reliability data which is currently lacking for expanding applications of hydrogen systems. Here, to address this gap, we present a new structure for a hydrogen component reliability database (HyCReD) that can be used to generate reliability data to be used in QRA, reliability, safety studies, maintenance planning, and more. Building on our previous work examining four major hydrogen safety data collection tools (West et al., 2022) [1], our approach in this work was to consult scientific literature on reliability data collection as well as a number of existing reliability engineering databases in the oil & gas, chemical processing, and nuclear power plant sectors. The evaluation of these databases led to identifying best practices to be implemented in a data collection framework for a hydrogen component reliability database. Based on these best practices, a set of 24 requirements for the proposed database are presented, covering its characteristics and the types of data to be collected. We define the structure of the HyCReD database and 25 data elements to be collected, spanning system description, failure, shutdown, or near-miss events, and maintenance events. The data elements are then defined according to international standards used in the safety and reliability practice and potential choice lists are provided for each field. Since this database is being piloted for hydrogen fueling stations, a generic station component hierarchy developed by West (2021) [2] is used to standardize system data. Finally, we demonstrate populating the database with information extracted from five narrative reports on hydrogen fueling station incidents.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

LLNL SFA OBER FY23 Program Management and Performance Report: BioGeoChemistry at Interfaces

The focus of the BioGeoChemistry at Interfaces SFA has been to identify and quantify the biogeochemical processes and the underlying mechanisms that control actinide mobility in an effort to reliably predict and control the cycling and migration of actinides in the environment. The research approach has included: (1) Field Studies that capture actinide behavior on the timescale of decades (Research Thrust 1), and (2) Fundamental Laboratory Studies that isolate specific biogeochemical processes observed in the field (Research Thrust 2). These Research Thrusts are underpinned by the unique capabilities and staff expertise at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, allowing the BioGeoChemistry at Interfaces SFA to advance our understanding of actinide migration behavior in the environment, and serve as a resource for environmental radiochemistry research internationally (Figure 1). In FY23, our SFA research focused on transient redox gradients across stratified waters, sediment-water interfaces, and mineral-water interfaces to address processes controlling cycling of redox-sensitive metals. Nevertheless, Research Thrusts 1 and 2 are guided by the following broad central hypotheses that were developed during our last program review held at the end of FY18: Thrust 1 Hypothesis: Biogeochemical processes occurring on the timescale of years to decades lead to greater actinide recalcitrance in sediments and limits their migration in surface and groundwater. Thrust 2 Hypothesis: Long-term biogeochemical processes include mineral and surface alteration, which leads to stabilization of actinide surface associations or incorporation into mineral precipitates. Our strategic goal is to use the knowledge gained from our Science Plan to advance our understanding of the behavior of actinides and other radionuclides (e.g. Cs) and provide DOE with the scientific basis for remediation and long-term stewardship of DOE’s legacy sites. More broadly, we are improving our understanding of transport phenomena in environmental systems sciences with a particular emphasis on environmentally relevant (long-term) timescales. While we retained some of our historical focus on actinide biogeochemistry this past fiscal year, biogeochemical processes occurring at unique Test Bed locations associated with this SFA provide fundamental information on abiotic and biotic redox processes that control the cycling of redox sensitive metals under dynamic and transient conditions. Furthermore, in collaboration with SFA teams at Argonne National Laboratory, our SFA has begun to transition away from the current research focus and develop a new research program in terrestrial wetland systems. The Terrestrial Wetland Function and Resilience SFA program plan will be delivered to the Environmental System Science (ESS) program within BER at the end of FY23.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mechanical Design of the Interaction Region Dipole B1pF for Electron Ion Collider

Here, the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC), planned for construction at Brookhaven National Laboratory, will consist of two intersecting beams of intense electrons and high-energy protons or heavier atomic nuclei. The collider will need many demanding components, including high field superconducting magnets for the Interaction Region (IR). It has been decided that a prototype of one such magnet, the B1pF dipole, shall be built, to validate design choices common to all Rutherford cable dipole and quadrupole IR magnets. B1pF is one of several high field magnets in the interaction region whose design is based on the 15.1 mm wide NbTi cable, a cable like the one used in the main dipole coil of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. The current design is based on a single layer coil with an inner diameter of 300 mm and magnetic length of ~3 m which generates a magnetic field at the center of the magnet of about 3.7 T at a current of ~11 kA at design. This paper presents the mechanical design of the B1pF dipole magnet, and the R&D effort associated with the development of the prototype, including tests for successfully winding and curing coils of the needed configuration into proper structural and magnetic elements, and including a multilayer magnetic return yoke which meets field requirements while providing an initial reduced structure suitable for operational testing in an existing test facility.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Status of Scintillator Development at Fermilab

Fermilab has had a 20+ year history in producing scintillator and is now one of the largest producers of organic scintillator in the world. Its scintillator has been used in a wide variety of applications including archeology, volcanology, mining exploration, agriculture, national security, as well as more traditional applications in HEP and Astro-particle physics. We will survey these applications. We have a scintillator extrusion facility and recently we have added injection molding capacity. We will discuss ongoing and near-term future projects for these facilities. We discuss ongoing R&D to improve light yield and timing performance of the extruded scintillator and hence reduce cost. We will discuss methods to improve light yield of injection-molded scintillator by refinements in the scintillator chemistry and process. Finally, we will present longer-term future plans for making new scintillating materials tailored for specific applications.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission

The X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) is a joint mission between the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in collaboration with the European Space Agency (ESA). In addition to the three space agencies, universities and research institutes from Japan, North America, and Europe have joined to contribute to developing satellite and onboard instruments, data-processing software, and the scientific observation program. XRISM is the successor to the ASTRO-H (Hitomi) mission, which ended prematurely in 2016. Its primary science goal is to examine astrophysical problems with precise, high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy. XRISM promises to discover new horizons in X-ray astronomy. It carries a 6 × 6 pixelized X-ray microcalorimeter on the focal plane of an X-ray mirror assembly (Resolve) and a co-aligned X-ray CCD camera (Xtend) that covers the same energy band over a large field of view. XRISM utilizes the Hitomi heritage, but all designs were reviewed. The attitude and orbit control system was improved in hardware and software. The spacecraft was launched from the JAXA Tanegashima Space Center on 2023 September 6 (UTC). During the in-orbit commissioning phase, the onboard components were activated. Although the gate valve protecting the Resolve sensor with a thin beryllium X-ray entrance window was not yet opened, scientific observation started in 2024 February with the planned performance verification observation program. The nominal observation program commenced with the following guest observation program beginning in 2024 September.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

BioGeoChemistry at Interfaces (LLNL SFA OBER FY22 Program Management and Performance Report)

The focus of the BioGeoChemistry at Interfaces SFA is to identify and quantify the biogeochemical processes and the underlying mechanisms that control actinide mobility in an effort to reliably predict and control the cycling and migration of actinides in the environment. The research approach includes: (1) Field Studies that capture actinide behavior on the timescale of decades (Research Thrust 1), and (2) Fundamental Laboratory Studies that isolate specific biogeochemical processes observed in the field (Research Thrust 2). These Research Thrusts are underpinned by the unique capabilities and staff expertise at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, allowing the BioGeoChemistry at Interfaces SFA to advance our understanding of actinide migration behavior in the environment, and serve as an resource for environmental radiochemistry research internationally. In the past year, our greater focus on transient redox gradients across stratified waters, sediment-water interfaces, and mineral-water interfaces extended our research beyond actinides to address processes controlling cycling of redox-sensitive metals more broadly. Nevertheless, Research Thrusts 1 and 2 are guided by the following broad central hypotheses that were developed during our last program review held at the end of FY18: Thrust 1 Hypothesis: Biogeochemical processes occurring on the timescale of years to decades lead to greater actinide recalcitrance in sediments and limits their migration in surface and groundwater. Thrust 2 Hypothesis: Long-term biogeochemical processes include mineral and surface alteration, which leads to stabilization of actinide surface associations or incorporation into mineral precipitates. Our strategic goal is to use the knowledge gained from our Science Plan to advance our understanding of the behavior of actinides and other radionuclides (e.g. Cs) and provide DOE with the scientific basis for remediation and long-term stewardship of DOE’s legacy sites. More broadly, we will enhance our understanding of transport phenomena in environmental systems sciences with a particular emphasis on environmentally relevant (long-term) timescales. While we retain our focus on actinide biogeochemistry, our increased focus on overall biogeochemical processes occurring at unique Test Bed locations associated with this SFA provides fundamental information on abiotic and biotic redox processes that control the cycling of redox sensitive metals under dynamic and transient conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prototyping the Light Detection of the DUNE Near Detector

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with a 70kt liquid argon time projection chamber (LAr TPC) at the Far Detector complex at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) and a Near Detector (ND) complex planned for the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The ND complex plans for three detector subsystems, including a modular LAr TPC comprised of 35 optically segregated modules. The modular detector design required the development a novel dielectric light readout, the ArCLight technology, which can be operated in a high voltage environment and has a large active surface. A demonstrator of four modular detectors, DUNE ND-LAr 2x2, will operate in 2023 in Fermilab's NuMI beam. After the construction of the modules was completed, they were successfully operated and commissioned in liquid argon using cosmic-ray muons at the University of Bern. This talk will discuss the designs of the light readout systems used in these modules with focus on the construction and commissioning of the ArCLights as well as the performance of the LRS during the tests at Bern.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Equilibrium reconstruction of DIII-D plasmas using predictive modeling of the pressure profile

New workflows have been developed for predictive modeling of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium in tokamak plasmas. The goal of this work is to predict the MHD equilibrium in tokamak discharges without having measurements of the kinetic profiles. The workflows include a cold start tool, which constructs all the profiles and power flows needed by transport codes; a Grad–Shafranov equilibrium solver; and various codes for the sources and sinks. For validation purposes, a database of DIII-D tokamak discharges has been constructed that is comprised of scans in the plasma current, toroidal magnetic field, and triangularity. Initial efforts focused on developing a workflow utilizing an empirically derived pressure model tuned to DIII-D discharges with monotonic safety factor profiles. This workflow shows good agreement with experimental kinetic equilibrium calculations, but is limited in that it is a single fluid (equal ion and electron temperatures) model and lacks H-mode pedestal predictions. The best agreement with the H-mode database is obtained using a theory-based workflow utilizing pressure profile predictions from a coupled TGLF turbulent transport and EPED pedestal models together with external magnetics and Motional Stark Effect (MSE) data to construct the equilibrium. Here, we obtain an average root mean square error of 5.1% in the safety factor profile when comparing the predicted and experimental kinetic equilibrium. We also find good agreement with the plasma stored energy, internal inductance, and pressure profiles. Including MSE data in the theory-based workflow results in noticeably improved agreement with the q-profiles in high triangularity discharges in comparison with the results obtained with magnetic data only. The predictive equilibrium workflow is expected to have wide applications in experimental planning, between-shot analysis, and reactor studies.

Kinsey, J. E. (ORCID:0000000193347473)↗

DOE OSTI2023

MicroBooNE Public Data Sets: a Collaborative Tool for LArTPC Software Development

Among liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) experiments MicroBooNE is the one that continually took physics data for the longest time (2015-2021), and represents the state of the art for reconstruction and analysis with this detector. Recently published analyses include oscillation physics results, searches for anomalies and other BSM signatures, and cross section measurements. LArTPC detectors are being used in current experiments such as ICARUS and SBND, and being planned for future experiments such as DUNE. MicroBooNE has recently released to the public two of its data sets, with the goal of enabling collaborative software developments with other LArTPC experiments and with AI or computing experts. These data sets simulate neutrino interactions on top of off-beam data, which include cosmic ray background and noise. The data sets are released in two formats: the native art/ROOT format used internally by the collaboration and familiar to other LArTPC experts, and the HDF5 format which contains reduced and simplified content and is suitable for usage by the broader community. This contribution presents the open data sets, discusses their motivation, the technical implementation, and the extensive documentation -- all inspired by FAIR principles. Finally, opportunities for collaborations are discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

High Performance Equilibrium Solvers for Integrated Magnetic Fusion Simulations

With the funding provided by this award, we developed numerical codes for the study of magnetically confined plasmas for fusion applications. Accordingly, our work can be divided into two separate categories: 1) the design and analysis of novel numerical methods providing high accuracy and high efficiency; 2) the study of the equilibrium and stability of magnetically confined plasmas with some of these numerical codes, as well as the study of the nature of the turbulent behavior which may arise in the presence of instabilities. We first developed new numerical schemes based on integral equation methods for the computation of steady-state magnetic configurations in fusion experiments, providing high accuracy for the magnetic field and its derivatives, which are required for stability and turbulence calculations. We employed different integral formulations depending on the application of interest: axisymmetric or non-axisymmetric equilibria, force-free or magnetohydrodynamic equilibria, fixed-boundary equilibria or free-boundary equilibria. While efficient, these methods do not yet apply to plasma boundaries which are not smooth, a situation which is fairly common in magnetic confinement experiments. To address this temporary weakness, we also constructed a new steady-state solver based on the Hybridizable Discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) method, which provides full geometric flexibility. In addition to these numerical tools focused on steady-states, we also contributed to the improvement of the speed and accuracy of codes simulating the plasma dynamics of fusion plasmas, by developing a novel velocity space representation for the efficient solution of kinetic equations, which most accurately describe the time evolution of hot plasmas in fusion experiments. Using the tools discussed above, we studied several questions pertaining to the equilibrium and stability of magnetically confined plasmas. In particular, we derived a new simple model for axisymmetric devices called tokamaks, to predict how elongated a fusion plasma can be before it becomes unstable and collapses. We also looked at the effect of the shape of the outer plasma surface on key properties of the steady-state magnetic configurations, and how these properties impact turbulence in fusion plasmas, and the corresponding transport of momentum. Likewise, we studied the role of large localized flows on the steady-state magnetic configurations, and how they may influence plasma stability and turbulence. Non-axisymmetric steady-state magnetic configurations are inherently more complex than axisymmetric steady-state configurations, and the subject of ongoing controversies regarding the regularity of the equations determining such steady-states, and their solutions. Implementing an existing NYU code in a new geometry, we studied the nature of the singularity of the solutions observed in the code, and methods to eliminate them. Our main conclusion is that by appropriately tailoring the plasma boundary, it is possible to eliminate the singularities otherwise appearing in our simulations, and to obtain steady-states which appear to be smooth. To gain further insights on incompletely understood turbulence phenomena, we proposed a new reduced model capturing most of these phenomena, which is simple enough to not require expensive numerical simulations on massive supercomputers to investigate them. We demonstrated the strong similarity between our simulations and published results obtained from computationally expensive simulations, and plan to rely on our reduced model to identify the key mechanisms determining the evolution and strength turbulent driven transport in fusion plasmas. Finally, we proposed a new framework for tokamak reactor design studies, enabling us to consider the relative merits of steady-state versus pulsed fusion reactors. We found that pulsed fusion reactors may benefit most from recent advances in magnet technology, and the availability of very high field magnets. As such, they may become more desirable than steady-state tokamak reactors for cost efficient electricity generation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Controlled-Environment Agriculture and the Geography of Food, Energy and Water Resilience in the United States

USDA guidelines call for an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption in U.S. households to promote healthier diets. Access to fresh fruits and vegetables are especially lacking in food deserts and food swamps (characterized by a prevalence of food that is highly processed and lacking in nutritional value). Adoption of the recommended healthy diet, which more than doubles the consumption of fruits and vegetables, would have a wide variety of health benefits and would reduce the land footprint of U.S diets. However, adopting a healthy diet would increase phosphate and nitrogen impacts associated with fertilizers and pesticides and would significantly increase freshwater consumption and energy use because of the resource intensity of field cultivation of fruits and vegetables. The majority of these crops are grown in just a few states, including California and Arizona, which are increasingly impacted by climate change. In addition, rural communities are rapidly becoming food deserts, while food produced in these areas is transported long distances to market. In recent years, highly intensified controlled environment (CE) agricultural systems, (i.e., vertical farming) have been developed to provide fresh food closer to consumers. Fruits and vegetables, many of which are amenable to CE culture, occupy a uniquely impactful segment of the food supply-chain, including their value in improving nutrition for vulnerable communities. The objective of this work is to elucidate the location dependency of the energy and water impacts of adoption of distributed CE farming for an important portion of the food system.

controlled environment agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Agrivoltaic Modeling With ADAM

Designing an agrivoltaic system presents a complex set of tradeoffs around PV system configuration, resulting performance, agricultural needs, and system economics. Developing tools for agrivoltaic analysis can assist system designers when making decisions related to these tradeoffs. We are developing the Agrivoltaics Design and Analysis Model (ADAM) as a free, publicly available web tool for agrivoltaics economics analysis. Features of ADAM include automated calculations for available agrivoltaic cropland, user-friendly configuration changes, inter-row irradiance calculations, and integrated economic modeling of energy and non-energy revenues. We will discuss the iterative process of agrivoltaic tool development including tradeoffs between accuracy and uncertainty, feature prioritization, and ease of use driven by our multi-disciplinary stakeholder design process. Finally, we will share modeling results from existing agrivoltaics systems as a preliminary case study.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A catalogue of Locus Algorithm pointings for optimal differential photometry for 23 779 quasars

ABSTRACT This paper presents a catalogue of optimized pointings for differential photometry of 23 779 quasars extracted from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Catalogue and a Score for each indicating the quality of the Field of View (FoV) associated with that pointing. Observation of millimagnitude variability on a time-scale of minutes typically requires differential observations with reference to an ensemble of reference stars. For optimal performance, these reference stars should have similar colour and magnitude to the target quasar. In addition, the greatest quantity and quality of suitable reference stars may be found by using a telescope pointing which offsets the target object from the centre of the FoV. By comparing each quasar with the stars which appear close to it on the sky in the SDSS Catalogue, an optimum pointing can be calculated, and a figure of merit, referred to as the ‘Score’ is calculated for that pointing. Highly flexible software has been developed to enable this process to be automated and implemented in a distributed computing paradigm, which enables the creation of catalogues of pointings given a set of input targets. Applying this technique to a sample of 40 000 targets from the fourth SDSS quasar catalogue resulted in the production of pointings and Scores for 23 779 quasars based on their magnitudes in the SDSS r-band. This catalogue is a useful resource for observers planning differential photometry studies and surveys of quasars to select those which have many suitable celestial neighbours for differential photometry.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using mixed methods to construct and analyze a participatory agent-based model of a complex Zimbabwean agro-pastoral system

Complex social-ecological systems can be difficult to study and manage. Simulation models can facilitate exploration of system behavior under novel conditions, and participatory modeling can involve stakeholders in developing appropriate management processes. Participatory modeling already typically involves qualitative structural validation of models with stakeholders, but with increased data and more sophisticated models, quantitative behavioral validation may be possible as well. In this study, we created a novel agent-basedmodel applied to a specific context: Zimbabwean non-governmental organization the Muonde Trust has been collecting data on their agro-pastoral system for the last 35 years and had concerns about land-use planning and the effectiveness of management interventions in the face of climate change. We collaboratively created an agent-based model of their system using their data archive, qualitatively calibrating it to the observed behavior of the real system without tuning any parameters to match specific quantitative outputs. We then behaviorally validated the model using quantitative community-based data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the relative impact of underlying parameter assumptions, Indigenous management interventions, and different rainfall variation scenarios. We found that our process resulted in a model which was successfully structurally validated and sufficiently realistic to be useful for Muonde researchers as a discussion tool. The model was inconsistently behaviorally validated, however, with some model variables matching field data better than others. We observed increased model system instability due to increasing variability in underlying drivers (rainfall), and also due to management interventions that broke feedbacks between the components of the system. Interventions that smoothed year-to-year variation rather than exaggerating it tended to improve sustainability. The Muonde trust has used the model to successfully advocate to local leaders for changes in land-use planning policy that will increase the sustainability of their system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗