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Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) Technology for NASA Earth Science

For NASA's Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is defined as an interactive and integrated multidomain, multiscale, digital replica of the state and temporal evolution of Earth systems. It dynamically integrates: relevant Earth system models and simulations; other relevant models (e.g., related to the world's infrastructure); continuous and timely (including near real time and direct readout) observations (e.g., space, air, ground, over/underwater, Internet of Things (IoT), socioeconomic); long-time records; as well as analytics and artificial intelligence tools. Effective ESDTs enable users to run hypothetical scenarios to improve the understanding, prediction of and mitigation/response to Earth system processes, natural phenomena and human activities as well as their many interactions. An ESDT is a type of integrated information system that, for example, enables continuous assessment of impact from naturally occurring and/or human activities on physical and natural environments. AIST ESDT strategic goals are to: 1. Develop information system frameworks to provide continuous and accurate representations of systems as they change over time; 2. Mirror various Earth Science systems and utilize the combination of Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Thread, and state-of-the-art models to help predict the Earth’s response to various phenomena; 3. Provide the tools to conduct "what if" investigations that can result in actionable predictions. The AIST ESDT thrust is developing capabilities toward the development of future digital twins of the Earth or of subcomponents of the Earth. This will enable the development of an overarching framework that will integrate New Observing Strategies (NOS) to enable new observation measurements, i.e., multi-source, coordinated, dynamic and responsive to needs and requests defined by Analytic Collaborative Frameworks (ACF) that enable agile science investigations fusing and analyzing very large amounts of diverse data. NOS and ACF capabilities along with open access to various science, infrastructure and human data, interconnected modeling, data assimilation, simulations, surrogate modeling, high-performance computing and advanced visualization, will define a powerful framework that could be utilized for local, regional or global and/or thematic digital twins. This presentation will describe a general overview of the AIST ESDT vision including prior work done in the areas of NOS and ACF as well as current and upcoming ESDT projects.

Jacqueline Le Moigne↗

Evaluation of Enhanced High Resolution MODIS/AMSR-E SSTs and the Impact on Regional Weather Forecast

Over the last few years, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been generating a 1-km sea surface temperature (SST) composite derived from retrievals of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for use in operational diagnostics and regional model initialization. With the assumption that the day-to-day variation in the SST is nominal, individual MODIS passes aboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Terra satellites are used to create and update four composite SST products each day at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, valid over the western Atlantic and Caribbean waters. A six month study from February to August 2007 over the marine areas surrounding southern Florida was conducted to compare the use of the MODIS SST composite versus the Real-Time Global SST analysis to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Substantial changes in the forecast heat fluxes were seen at times in the marine boundary layer, but relatively little overall improvement was measured in the sensible weather elements. The limited improvement in the WRF model forecasts could be attributed to the diurnal changes in SST seen in the MODIS SST composites but not accounted for by the model. Furthermore, cloud contamination caused extended periods when individual passes of MODIS were unable to update the SSTs, leading to substantial SST latency and a cool bias during the early summer months. In order to alleviate the latency problems, the SPoRT Center recently enhanced its MODIS SST composite by incorporating information from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) instruments as well as the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis. These enhancements substantially decreased the latency due to cloud cover and improved the bias and correlation of the composites at available marine point observations. While these enhancements improved upon the modeled cold bias using the original MODIS SSTs, the discernable impacts on the WRF model were still somewhat limited. This paper explores several factors that may have contributed to this result. First, the original methodology to initialize the model used the most recent SST composite available in a hypothetical real ]time configuration, often matching the forecast initial time with an SST field that was 5-8 hours offset. To minimize the differences that result from the diurnal variations in SST, the previous day fs SST composite is incorporated at a time closest to the model initialization hour (e.g. 1600 UTC composite at 1500 UTC model initialization). Second, the diurnal change seen in the MODIS SST composites was not represented by the WRF model in previous simulations, since the SSTs were held constant throughout the model integration. To address this issue, we explore the use of a water skin-temperature diurnal cycle prediction capability within v3.1 of the WRF model to better represent fluctuations in marine surface forcing. Finally, the verification of the WRF model is limited to very few over-water sites, many of which are located near the coastlines. In order to measure the open ocean improvements from the AMSR-E, we could use an independent 2-dimensional, satellite-derived data set to validate the forecast model by applying an object-based verification method. Such a validation technique could aid in better understanding the benefits of the mesoscale SST spatial structure to regional models applications.

Schiferl, Luke D.↗

Yellowstone Ecological Forecasting: Assessing Change in Aspen Extent in Northern Yellowstone National Park

The removal and reintroduction of the gray wolf (Canis lupus) in Yellowstone National Park have played an important role in shaping the ecological composition of this distinct landscape, and it is a textbook example of multi-trophic dynamics. With particular importance to conservation science, the inter-trophic cascades between wolves and species such as the elk (Cervus canadensis) and the quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) have been extensively studied. In conjunction with the National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park, Utah State University, and the University of Wisconsin–Stevens Point, this project utilized satellite remote sensing to investigate the long-term trends in aspen extent. Through random forest modeling and phenological approaches, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI; years 2017–2019) and Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM; years 1987–2011) datasets were used to derive an Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Tasseled Cap Indices (Brightness, Greenness, Wetness), and RGB true color composites. The International Space System Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (ISS GEDI) was used to analyze canopy height. Results were consolidated into maps and time-series that provide an in-depth and intricate depiction of aspen stand extent. The end products will assist the National Park Service in its management practices and inform wildlife restoration and rewilding decisions within and beyond the contexts of Yellowstone National Park.

Kyle Steen↗

Atmospheric Soundings from AIRS/AMSU/HSB

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 5, 2002, together with AMSU A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. The primary products of AIRS/AMSU/HSB are twice daily global fields of atmospheric temperature-humidity profiles, ozone profiles, sea/land surface skin temperature, and cloud related parameters including OLR. The sounding goals of AIRS are to produce 1 km tropospheric layer mean temperatures with an RMS error of 1K, and 1 km layer precipitable water with an rms error of 1K, and 1 km layer precipitable water with an rms error of 20 percent, in cases with up to 80 percent cloud cover. The AIRS data products are significant for studying climate variability and change, as well as for use in initialization of General Circulation Models with the objective of improving analysis fields and subsequent forecast skill. Data assimilation experiments to evaluate the impact of AIRS retrievals on analysis and forecast skill are being conducted. Sample fields of parameters retrieved from AIRS/AMSU/HSB data will be presented and validated as a function of retrieved fractional cloud cover. Select fields will also be compared to those contained in the ECMWF analysis, done without the benefit of AIRS data, on both an instantaneous and monthly mean basis, to demonstrate information that AIRS can add to that already contained in the ECMWF analysis.

Susskind, Joel↗

Airborne Lidar Measurements of Atmospheric Pressure Made Using the Oxygen A-Band

Accurate measurements of greenhouse gas mixing ratios on a global scale are currently needed to gain a better understanding of climate change and its possible impact on our planet. In order to remotely measure greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere with regard to dry air, the air number density in the atmosphere is also needed in deriving the greenhouse gas concentrations. Since oxygen is stable and uniformly mixed in the atmosphere at 20.95%, the measurement of an oxygen absorption in the atmosphere can be used to infer the dry air density and used to calculate the dry air mixing ratio of a greenhouse gas, such as carbon dioxide or methane. OUT technique of measuring Oxygen uses integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) with an Erbium Doped Fiber Amplifier (EDF A) laser system and single photon counting module (SPCM). It measures the absorbance of several on- and off-line wavelengths tuned to an O2 absorption line in the A-band at 764.7 nm. The choice of wavelengths allows us to maximize the pressure sensitivity using the trough between two absorptions in the Oxygen A-band. Our retrieval algorithm uses ancillary meteorological and aircraft altitude information to fit the experimentally obtained lidar O2 line shapes to a model atmosphere and derives the pressure from the profiles of the two lines. We have demonstrated O2 measurements from the ground and from an airborne platform. In this paper we will report on our airborne measurements during our 2011 campaign for the ASCENDS program.

Riris, Haris↗

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at various scales, thereby increasing the capacity of national and regional institutions that lack drought early warning systems or complementing existing ones. A further goal is to improve coordination of information delivery for drought-related activities and relief efforts across the world. This is especially relevant for regions and nations with low capacity for drought early warning. To do this requires a global partnership that leverages the resources necessary and develops capabilities at the global level, such as global drought forecasting combined with early warning tools, global real-time monitoring, and harmonized methods to identify critical areas vulnerable to drought. Although the path to a fully functional GDEWS is challenging, multiple partners and organizations within the drought, forecasting, agricultural, and water-cycle communities are committed to working toward its success.

GDEWS↗

Wind Information Uplink to Aircraft Performing Interval Management Operations

Interval Management (IM) is an ADS-B-enabled suite of applications that use ground and flight deck capabilities and procedures designed to support the relative spacing of aircraft (Barmore et al., 2004, Murdoch et al. 2009, Barmore 2009, Swieringa et al. 2011; Weitz et al. 2012). Relative spacing refers to managing the position of one aircraft to a time or distance relative to another aircraft, as opposed to a static reference point such as a point over the ground or clock time. This results in improved inter-aircraft spacing precision and is expected to allow aircraft to be spaced closer to the applicable separation standard than current operations. Consequently, if the reduced spacing is used in scheduling, IM can reduce the time interval between the first and last aircraft in an overall arrival flow, resulting in increased throughput. Because IM relies on speed changes to achieve precise spacing, it can reduce costly, low-altitude, vectoring, which increases both efficiency and throughput in capacity-constrained airspace without negatively impacting controller workload and task complexity. This is expected to increase overall system efficiency. The Flight Deck Interval Management (FIM) equipment provides speeds to the flight crew that will deliver them to the achieve-by point at the controller-specified time, i.e., assigned spacing goal, after the target aircraft crosses the achieve-by point (Figure 1.1). Since the IM and target aircraft may not be on the same arrival procedure, the FIM equipment predicts the estimated times of arrival (ETA) for both the IM and target aircraft to the achieve-by point. This involves generating an approximate four-dimensional trajectory for each aircraft. The accuracy of the wind data used to generate those trajectories is critical to the success of the IM operation. There are two main forms of uncertainty in the wind information used by the FIM equipment. The first is the accuracy of the forecast modeling done by the weather provider. This is generally a global environmental prediction obtained from a weather model such as the Rapid Refresh (RAP) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The weather forecast data will have errors relative to the actual, or truth, winds that the aircraft will encounter. The second source of uncertainty is that only a small subset of the forecast data can be uplinked to the aircraft for use by the FIM equipment. This results in loss of additional information. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and RTCA are currently developing standards for the communication of wind and atmospheric data to the aircraft for use in NextGen operations. This study examines the impact of various wind forecast sampling methods on IM performance metrics to inform the standards development.

Ahmad, Nashat N.↗

Laboratory For Atmospheres 1996 Annual Report

A broad and vigorous science program in NASA is vital for the advancement of knowledge through space research.Scientists at NASA in collaboration with outside scientists play a key role in conceiving new space missions, providing mission requirements, and carrying out research oriented towards explaining the behavior of Earth's and other planetary systems. NASA scientists also supply outside scientists with technical assistance and scientific data.The Laboratory for Atmospheres serves as the focal point of a broad theoretical and experimental research program. The goal of the program is to study all aspects of the atmospheres of the Earth and other planets, including their structural, dynamical, radiative, and chemical properties. The Laboratory is one of four science laboratories of the at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The Laboratory is located in Greenbelt, MD along with the and the. , located in New York, NY, is the fourth science Laboratory in the Directorate. The Directorate also includes the Global Change Data Center and the Space Data and Computing Division (SDCD). The GSFC is the lead center for science and management of the, which is one of the four NASA enterprises. Earth Sciences Directorate Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE)This report is a general statement of the purpose and philosophy of the Laboratory and of its role within NASA. It also includes a broad description of the research areas; information on human resources, scientific interactions, and outreach activities with the outside community; and a selection of the major accomplishments achieved in the Laboratory in calendar year 1996.

Steven E. Platnick↗

Extracting Independent Local Oscillatory Geophysical Signals by Geodetic Tropospheric Delay

Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) due to water vapor derived from space geodetic techniques and numerical weather prediction simulated-reanalysis data exhibits non-linear and non-stationary properties akin to those in the crucial geophysical signals of interest to the research community. These time series, once decomposed into additive (and stochastic) components, have information about the long term global change (the trend) and other interpretable (quasi-) periodic components such as seasonal cycles and noise. Such stochastic component(s) could be a function that exhibits at most one extremum within a data span or a monotonic function within a certain temporal span. In this contribution, we examine the use of the combined Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Independent Component Analysis (ICA): the EEMD-ICA algorithm to extract the independent local oscillatory stochastic components in the tropospheric delay derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) over six geodetic sites (HartRAO, Hobart26, Wettzell, Gilcreek, Westford, and Tsukub32). The proposed methodology allows independent geophysical processes to be extracted and assessed. Analysis of the quality index of the Independent Components (ICs) derived for each cluster of local oscillatory components (also called the Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs)) for all the geodetic stations considered in the study demonstrate that they are strongly site dependent. Such strong dependency seems to suggest that the localized geophysical signals embedded in the ZTD over the geodetic sites are not correlated. Further, from the viewpoint of non-linear dynamical systems, four geophysical signals the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) index derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) anomaly from NCEP, the SIDC monthly Sun Spot Number (SSN), and the Length of Day (LoD) are linked to the extracted signal components from ZTD. Results from the synchronization analysis show that ZTD and the geophysical signals exhibit (albeit subtle) site dependent phase synchronization index.

Botai, O. J.↗

Overview of NASA's MODIS and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) snow-cover Earth System Data Records

Knowledge of the distribution, extent, duration and timing of snowmelt is critical for characterizing the Earth's climate system and its changes. As a result, snow cover is one of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) essential climate variables (ECVs). Consistent, long-term datasets of snow cover are needed to study interannual variability and snow climatology. The NASA snow-cover datasets generated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua spacecraft and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) are NASA Earth System Data Records (ESDR). The objective of the snow-cover detection algorithms is to optimize the accuracy of mapping snow-cover extent (SCE) and to minimize snow-cover detection errors of omission and commission using automated, globally applied algorithms to produce SCE data products. Advancements in snow-cover mapping have been made with each of the four major reprocessings of the MODIS data record, which extends from 2000 to the present. MODIS Collection 6 (C6) and VIIRS Collection 1 (C1) represent the state-of-the-art global snow cover mapping algorithms and products for NASA Earth science. There were many revisions made in the C6 algorithms which improved snow-cover detection accuracy and information content of the data products. These improvements have also been incorporated into the NASA VIIRS snow cover algorithms for C1. Both information content and usability were improved by including the Normalized Snow Difference Index (NDSI) and a quality assurance (QA) data array of algorithm processing flags in the data product, along with the SCE map.The increased data content allows flexibility in using the datasets for specific regions and end-user applications.Though there are important differences between the MODIS and VIIRS instruments (e.g., the VIIRS 375m native resolution compared to MODIS 500 m), the snow detection algorithms and data products are designed to be as similar as possible so that the 16C year MODIS ESDR of global SCE can be extended into the future with the S-NPP VIIRS snow products and with products from future Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) platforms.These NASA datasets are archived and accessible through the NASA Distributed Active Archive Center at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

Earth System Data Record↗

Variability in Modelled Airborne Dust Mineralogy Derived from Global Soil Composition Uncertainties

Dust aerosols consist on a variety of minerals with different physic and chemical properties. As such, they interact with short and long wave radiation, potentially form clouds, act as nutrients modulating biogeochemical cycles, or influence atmospheric chemistry, differently. Most current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) neglect the complexity in dust composition, mainly due to computational constraints, but also to the existing uncertainties in the size resolved composition of parent soils, the resulting distribution of minerals in airborne dust, and the scarcity of observations to constrain them. Within this work, we assess the variability of global dust composition due to uncertainties in the characterization of the parent soil mineralogy. To that end, we consider two available global soil mineralogy atlases, developed by Claquin et al. (1999) –C1999- and Journet et al. (2014) –J2014-, which represent respectively 8 and 12 relevant minerals for climate (namely: illite, smectite/montmorillonite, kaolinite, calcite, gypsum, hematite, quartz, and feldspars in C1999, and those plus chlorite, vermiculite, goethite, and mica in J2014). Thanks to a recently developed feature of the MONARCH atmospheric-chemistry model, we are able to explicitly resolve the minerals’ atmospheric cycle. Therefore, we define two global experiments to assess changes on airborne dust composition attributed to the soil mineralogy assumptions and provide a measure of their variability. We also perform a preliminary evaluation of the global mineralogy results against available observations of mineral fractions in surface dust concentration. Our results will inform the climate modelling community about the potential variability in dust composition, an aspect that will gain relevance as ESMs continue growing in complexity and new processes to better characterize aerosols’ forcing or biogeochemical cycles are added. Further observational constraints, such as those that will derive from the EMIT NASA mission on soil composition or the FRAGMENT experimental campaigns on airborne dust characterization, will be key in the near future to improve our understanding of the impact of dust mineralogy on fundamental climate features.

Dust aerosols↗

SeaWiFS technical report series. Volume 1: An overview of SeaWiFS and ocean color

The purpose of this series of technical reports is to provide current documentation of the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Project activities, instrument performance, algorithms, and operations. This documentation is necessary to ensure that critical information related to the quality and calibration of the satellite data is available to the scientific community. SeaWiFS will bring to the ocean community a welcomed and improved renewal of the ocean color remote sensing capability lost when the Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) ceased operating in 1986. The goal of SeaWiFS, scheduled to be launched in August 1993, is to examine oceanic factors that affect global change. Because of the role of phytoplankton in the global carbon cycle, data obtained from SeaWiFS will be used to assess the ocean's role in this cycle, as well as other biogeochemical cycles. SeaWiFS data will be used to help elucidate the magnitude and variability of the annual cycle of primary production by marine phytoplankton and to determine the distribution and timing of spring blooms. The observations will help to visualize the dynamics of ocean and costal currents, the physics of mixing, and the relationships between ocean physics and large-scale patterns of productivity. The data will help fill the gap in ocean biological observations between those of the CZCS and the upcoming Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) on the Earth Observing System-A (EOS-A) satellite.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

Gene Expression Dynamics Inspector (GEDI): for integrative analysis of expression profiles

Genome-wide expression profiles contain global patterns that evade visual detection in current gene clustering analysis. Here, a Gene Expression Dynamics Inspector (GEDI) is described that uses self-organizing maps to translate high-dimensional expression profiles of time courses or sample classes into animated, coherent and robust mosaics images. GEDI facilitates identification of interesting patterns of molecular activity simultaneously across gene, time and sample space without prior assumption of any structure in the data, and then permits the user to retrieve genes of interest. Important changes in genome-wide activities may be quickly identified based on 'Gestalt' recognition and hence, GEDI may be especially useful for non-specialist end users, such as physicians. AVAILABILITY: GEDI v1.0 is written in Matlab, and binary Matlab.dll files which require Matlab to run can be downloaded for free by academic institutions at http://www.chip.org/~ge/gedihome.html Supplementary information: http://www.chip.org/~ge/gedihome.html.

Database Management Systems↗

Nonlinear system controller design based on domain of attaction: An application to CELSS analysis and control

Nonlinear system controller design based on the domain of attraction is presented. This is particularly suited to investigating Closed Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) models. In particular, the dynamic consequences of changes in the waste storage capacity and system mass, and how information is used for control in CELSS models are examined. The models' high dimensionality and nonlinear state equations make them difficult to analyze by any other technique. The domain of attraction is the region in initial conditions that tend toward an attractor and it is delineated by randomly selecting initial conditions from the region of state space being investigated. Error analysis is done by repeating the domain simulations with independent samples. A refinement of this region is the domain of performance which is the region of initial conditions meeting a performance criteria. In nonlinear systems, local stability does not insure stability over a larger region. The domain of attraction marks out this stability region; hence, it can be considered a measure of a nonlinear system's ability to recovery from state perturbations. Considering random perturbations, the minimum radius of the domain is a measure of the magnitude of perturbations for which recovery is guaranteed. Design of both linear and nonlinear controllers are shown. Three CELSS models, with 9 to 30 state variable, are presented. Measures of the domain of attraction are used to show the global behavior of these models under a variety of design and controller scenarios.

Babcock, P. S., IV↗

The Time Series Technique for Aerosol Retrievals over Land from MODIS: Algorithm MAIAC

Atmospheric aerosols interact with sun light by scattering and absorbing radiation. By changing irradiance of the Earth surface, modifying cloud fractional cover and microphysical properties and a number of other mechanisms, they affect the energy balance, hydrological cycle, and planetary climate [IPCC, 2007]. In many world regions there is a growing impact of aerosols on air quality and human health. The Earth Observing System [NASA, 1999] initiated high quality global Earth observations and operational aerosol retrievals over land. With the wide swath (2300 km) of MODIS instrument, the MODIS Dark Target algorithm [Kaufman et al., 1997; Remer et al., 2005; Levy et al., 2007] currently complemented with the Deep Blue method [Hsu et al., 2004] provides daily global view of planetary atmospheric aerosol. The MISR algorithm [Martonchik et al., 1998; Diner et al., 2005] makes high quality aerosol retrievals in 300 km swaths covering the globe in 8 days. With MODIS aerosol program being very successful, there are still several unresolved issues in the retrieval algorithms. The current processing is pixel-based and relies on a single-orbit data. Such an approach produces a single measurement for every pixel characterized by two main unknowns, aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and surface reflectance (SR). This lack of information constitutes a fundamental problem of the remote sensing which cannot be resolved without a priori information. For example, MODIS Dark Target algorithm makes spectral assumptions about surface reflectance, whereas the Deep Blue method uses ancillary global database of surface reflectance composed from minimal monthly measurements with Rayleigh correction. Both algorithms use Lambertian surface model. The surface-related assumptions in the aerosol retrievals may affect subsequent atmospheric correction in unintended way. For example, the Dark Target algorithm uses an empirical relationship to predict SR in the Blue (B3) and Red (B1) bands from the 2.1 m channel (B7) for the purpose of aerosol retrieval. Obviously, the subsequent atmospheric correction will produce the same SR in the red and blue bands as predicted, i.e. an empirical function of 2.1. In other words, the spectral, spatial and temporal variability of surface reflectance in the Blue and Red bands appears borrowed from band B7. This may have certain implications for the vegetation and global carbon analysis because the chlorophyll-sensing bands B1, B3 are effectively substituted in terms of variability by band B7, which is sensitive to the plant liquid water. This chapter describes a new recently developed generic aerosol-surface retrieval algorithm for MODIS. The Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm simultaneously retrieves AOT and surface bi-directional reflection factor (BRF) using the time series of MODIS measurements.

Lyapustin, Alexei↗

Multi-Decadal Records of Stratospheric Composition and Their Relationship to Stratospheric Circulation Change

Constituent evolution for 1990-2015 simulated using the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model driven by meteorological fields from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) is compared with three sources of observations: ground-based column measurements of HNO3 and HCl from two stations in the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, 1990- ongoing), profiles of CH4 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS, 1992-2005), and profiles of N2O from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Earth Observing System satellite Aura (2005- ongoing). The differences between observed and simulated values are shown to be time dependent, with better agreement after 2000 compared with the prior decade. Furthermore, the differences between observed and simulated HNO3 and HCl columns are shown to be correlated with each other, suggesting that issues with the simulated transport and mixing cause the differences during the 1990s and that these issues are less important during the later years. Because the simulated fields are related to mean age in the lower stratosphere, we use these comparisons to evaluate the time dependence of mean age. The ongoing NDACC column observations provide critical information necessary to substantiate trends in mean age obtained using fields from MERRA-2 or any other reanalysis products.

Profiles of N2O from the Microwave Limb Sounde↗

Providing Long-term Solar and Meteorological Resource Information from NASA Research through the GIS-Enabled POWER Web Services Portal

Solar and other renewable energy systems are optimized using geophysical parameters describing information about the solar resource and meteorological environments and how those environments may be changing in time. The Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Energy Resource (POWER) team at the NASA LaRC Research Center deployed its first version of the revitalized POWER geophysical parameter website that employs Esri Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. This web application provides access to both time series and climatological data sets spanning from a few days behind real-time back to the early 1980’s with a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree, thus extending over 30 years. The GIS tools enable, generate and store climatological averages using spatial queries and calculations in a spatial database resulting in greater accessibility to government agencies, industry and individuals. There is an API that provides data through a URL coding and can also invoked inside user software packages. Output data formats now include ASCII, CSV, geoTiff, JSON and .netCDF. Since May 2018, over 10.4 TB of data have been delivered to fulfill over 110 million data requests from 240,000 unique user IPs (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). This presentation provides an overview of this project and the current version of the new POWER web capabilities through to the end usage. Surface solar parameters are adapted from both the NASA/GEWEX (Global and Energy Water Cycle Exchange) SRB (Surface Radiation Budget) project and the CERES (Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System) data products. The meteorological parameters are adapted from NASA’s MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). We review uncertainty of various basic parameters using surface measurements. After the introduction, we specifically discuss various clusters of parameters for equator pointing tilted surfaces that provide for the estimation of optimal tilt angle by month and year. The discussion will emphasize a few examples of how solar and building engineers are using the data products. We will then preview the capabilities of Version 2 featuring examples of hourly solar and meteorological data products, customized user reports and expanded web mapping services from CERES data products. The web services provide a unique, expandable resource for renewable energy systems engineers to design, evaluate and optimize to environments worldwide.

Solar Resource↗

Landslide Hazard is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia has long been known as a hotspot for landslide risk, and studies have suggested that landslide hazard is likely to increase in this region over the coming decades. Extreme precipitation may become more frequent, with a nonlinear response relative to increasing global temperatures. However, these changes are geographically varied. This article maps probable changes to landslide hazard, as shown by a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) derived from downscaled precipitation and temperature. In order to capture the nonlinear response of slopes to extreme precipitation, a simple machine-learning model was trained on a database of landslides across High Mountain Asia to develop a regional LHI. This model was applied to statistically downscaled data from the 30 members of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research large ensembles to produce a range of possible outcomes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The LHI reveals that landslide hazard will increase in most parts of High Mountain Asia. Absolute increases will be highest in already hazardous areas such as the Central Himalaya, but relative change is greatest on the Tibetan Plateau. Even in regions where landslide hazard declines by year 2100, it will increase prior to the mid-century mark. However, the seasonal cycle of landslide occurrence will not change greatly across High Mountain Asia. Although substantial uncertainty remains in these projections, the overall direction of change seems reliable. These findings highlight the importance of continued analysis to inform disaster risk reduction strategies for stakeholders across High Mountain Asia.

Thomas A Stanley↗