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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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577 records · Page 23

Aerothermal Shape Optimization of Actively-Cooled Battery Packs Using Conjugate Heat Transfer

Thermal management for battery is important for electric aircraft because battery temperature is critically important to vehicle safety, and it also has direct impact on the efficiency of the battery system. Because ambient air is a readily available resource for aircraft, this paper considers an active cooling concept with forced convection of ambient air through the battery pack. Conjugate heat transfer analysis is used to solve the coupled aero-thermal problem, which consists of a finite-volume computational fluid dynamics solver for the fluid domain, and a conduction heat transfer solver for the solid domain. A mixed Neumann and Dirichlet boundary condition is developed for the fluid-solid interface, which allows the solid domain to completely submerge in the fluid domain. A gradient-based optimization method is adopted, and the discrete adjoint approach implemented in DAFoam is used to efficiently compute the gradients. The aero-thermal coupling for primal analysis and gradient computation is handled using the OpenMDAO-based MPhys framework. A constant heat source is prescribed for the battery cells, and the battery shape (design variable) is optimized to minimize cooling pump power and battery weight (composite objective function) while keeping the battery temperature below a threshold (constraint). The optimized design achieves a 44.6% and 1.5% reduction in the cooling pump power and battery weight, respectively, and the maximal temperature constraint is satisfied. This work has the potential to reduce battery-pack weight, improve performance, and reduce the weight of thermal management systems for electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft.

heat transfer

Robust Heat-Flux Sensors for Coal-Fired Boiler Extreme Environments

In this project, robust heat-flux measurement systems were developed. The heat-flux sensors utilize thermoelectric effects to directly transduce the heat-flux inputs to analog electrical voltage signals. They were constructed from dedicated materials that can withstand temperatures of at least 1000°C and maintain adequate performance at these conditions for prolonged periods of time. The proposed approaches took into account numerous considerations, including system cost, sensor head resilience, sensor footprint, data accuracy, response time, and maintenance requirements. Through modern thermoelectric materials design, methodical materials selection and rigorous testing in materials characterization labs and medium-scale fire research facilities, we have demonstrated functioning laboratory prototypes, upon which one could base industrial heat-flux sensing platforms capable of operating in the challenging high-temperature, corrosive environments of the boilers of coal-fired power plants. A distributed sensor array for heat-flux measurements throughout the furnace water-wall, the superheater area and the economizer coils can provide critical data for the power plant control systems to increase efficiency, improve safety and reduce down times. For example, the combined heat-flux sensor/control systems can contribute to the optimization of burner and boiler operations under flexible loads, the optimization of heat-exchange conditions and overall reduction of heat rate and emissions, the prediction of imminent overheating conditions, and the optimization of the soot-blowing protocols.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS

Synthesis and application of thermally responsive nanofiber coatings for overtemperature monitoring

This study presents a one-pot synthesis route to organometallic nanofibers based on copper thiolate, exhibiting distinctive chemical and physical characteristics. Electron microscopy analysis of morphology and composition revealed 2-10 μm-long, 50-90 nm-diameter hollow and non-hollow fibers composed of copper, sulfur, oxygen, hydrocarbon, and chlorine. Thermogravimetric analysis showed a pronounced mass loss within 120°C-135°C. To elucidate the thermal responsive pathways, the nanofibers were characterized before and after heating. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy indicates that an initially mixed Cu(I)/Cu(II) oxidation states transition to predominantly Cu(I) upon heating. A layer of nanofiber was coated on battery pouch foil and evaluated as a candidate thermally sensitive coating. At elevated temperature (100-130°C), nanofiber coating released volatile organic compounds, sulfide and sulfur dioxide as detected using multiple gas sensors. This thermally responsive gas release/sensing approach provides a potential large-area temperature monitoring strategy, which is particularly relevant where direct temperature measurements of individual batteries is impractical. The results established proof of concept for nanofiber-coated battery pouch foil as overtemperature warning platform that can provide alerts when surface temperatures exceed a critical threshold. More broadly, the ability to form interconnected fiber networks positions copper thiolate nanofiber coatings as promising materials for advanced applications.

Ihala Gamaralalage, Chanaka [ORNL] (ORCID:00000002

HTGR Multiphysics Application Drivers FY26 Updates

This report summarizes FY26 progress under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program's high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) application driver work, covering a wide range of activities such as code validation and multi-physics code assessment. 1) A detailed SAM model of the High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) was developed using a unique-block grouping approach, with an extended parallel thermal network method to capture block-to-block conduction and radiation heat transfer, and applied to steady-state simulations of the HTTR 30~MW and 9~MW cases. 2) In another activity, SAM's newly implemented multi-component gas flow model was validated against the Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) argon ingress experiment, correctly capturing the density-driven suppression and thermal recovery of natural circulation observed when argon is introduced into the air-cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) loop. 3) For the OECD/NEA High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) benchmark, we co-led the international benchmark activities as well as the OECD/NEA final benchmark report to be released at the end of this year. 4) Finally, the coupled Griffin-SAM modeling capability for pebble-bed HTGRs was advanced by verifying the Griffin neutronics solution against Serpent Monte Carlo for a realistic non-uniform temperature distribution, resolving several deficiencies in the SAM-to-Griffin temperature transfer scheme, and enabling distinct fuel kernel, moderator, and coolant temperatures for cross section feedback. These new features were demonstrated in a PBR load-following transient.

Lee, Alvin

Aerothermal Shape Optimization of Actively-Cooled Battery Packs using Conjugate Heat Transfer

Thermal management for battery is important for electric aircraft because battery temperature is critically important to vehicle safety, and it also has direct impact on the efficiency of the battery system. Because ambient air is a readily available resource for aircraft, this paper considers an active cooling concept with forced convection of ambient air through the battery pack. Conjugate heat transfer analysis is used to solve the coupled aero-thermal problem, which consists of a finite-volume computational fluid dynamics solver for the fluid domain, and a conduction heat transfer solver for the solid domain. A mixed Neumann and Dirichlet boundary condition is developed for the fluid-solid interface, which allows the solid domain to completely submerge in the fluid domain. A gradient-based optimization method is adopted, and the discrete adjoint approach implemented in DAFoam is used to efficiently compute the gradients. The aero-thermal coupling for primal analysis and gradient computation is handled using the OpenMDAO-based MPhys framework. A constant heat source is prescribed for the battery cells, and the battery shape (design variable) is optimized to minimize cooling pump power and battery weight (composite objective function) while keeping the battery temperature below a threshold (constraint). The optimized design achieves a 44.6% and 1.5% reduction in the cooling pump power and battery weight, respectively, and the maximal temperature constraint is satisfied. This work has the potential to reduce battery-pack weight, improve performance, and reduce the weight of thermal management systems for electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft.

thermal management

Workshop on Advances in NASA-Relevant, Minimally Invasive Instrumentation

The purpose of this meeting is to highlight those advances in instrumentation and methodology that can be applied to the medical problems that will be encountered as the duration of manned space missions is extended. Information on work that is presently being done by NASA as well as other approaches in which NASA is not participating will be exchanged. The NASA-sponsored efforts that will be discussed are part of the overall Space Medicine Program that has been undertaken by NASA to address the medical problems of manned spaceflight. These problems include those that have been observed in the past as well as those which are anticipated as missions become longer, traverse different orbits, or are in any way different. This conference is arranged in order to address the types of instrumentation that might be used in several major medical problem areas. Instrumentation that will help in the cardiovascular, musculoskeletal, and psychological areas, among others will be presented. Interest lies in identifying instrumentation which will help in learning more about ourselves through experiments performed directly on humans. Great emphasis is placed on non-invasive approaches, although every substantial program basic to animal research will be needed in the foreseeable future. Space Medicine is a rather small affair in what is primarily an engineering organization. Space Medicine is conducted throughout NASA by a very small skeleton staff at the headquarters office in Washington and by our various field centers. These centers include the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas, the Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, California, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, and the Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. Throughout these various centers, work is conducted in-house by NASA's own staff scientists, physicians, and engineers. In addition, various universities, industries, and other government laboratories perform research that cannot be effectively carried out in-house. At the moment, approximately 50% of the work is performed in-house and 50% is extramural. The area of bioinstrumentation pervades every one of our problem areas. In each, equipment or procedures are being developed that will allow more clinical work to be done in a ground-based or spacecraft setting. Although work of this kind goes on throughout the NASA organization and through its grants and contracts in the community at large, the major thrust of it is concentrated at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory which plays a lead role in this type of research and acts as the lead center in bioinstrumentation for NASA. It is recognized that there is much additional research being pursued in this area which would be potentially valuable to NASA and could, with some stimulation from, be made more applicable to NASA's needs. It is hoped, therefore, that the proceedings of this conference will be used as the basis for developing research strategies to be used as a road map to point the way in which NASA's own sponsored program should proceed over the course of the next three years. Additionally, it is hoped that the conference will highlight additional areas in which NASA should be involved either in-house or through the sponsorship of non-NASA scientists. NASA would also like to get an idea of which areas should be emphasized or perhaps de-emphasized among those that it is currently pursuing. In considering these questions, the discussion should concern itself not so much with whether a particular procedure or piece of equipment would work in a spacecraft, but rather, with whether the procedures that are advocated are at the state-of-the-art or beyond the state-of-the-art and whether they hold promise of giving additional insight into the problems to be confronted as humans venture into space for longer and longer periods of time.

Source record

Transition from Vehicular to Structural Ionic Transport in Electrified Alkali Aqueous Solutions

A molecular understanding of the solvation and dynamics of ions under static electric fields is crucial for modelling a wide range of natural and technological processes. Yet, traditional simulation methods suffer from a trade-off that has to be made between accuracy and statistical convergence. To bridge this gap, herein we extend our recently introduced Perturbed Neural Network Potential Molecular Dynamics (PNNP MD) approach to investigate the solvation structures and ionic transport mechanisms of electrified alkali cationic solutions. We obtain ionic conductivities for Li+, Na+ and Cs+ from the field dependence of the ionic current density in good agreement with experiment. Surprisingly, the migration mechanism is found to be strikingly different for the three ions despite their similar ionic conductivities. While Li+ conducts predominantly through vehicular migration of a stable 4-fold coordinated ion at all field strengths, Cs+ conducts strictly through a structural diffusion mechanism, where 9-12 transient first shell water coordination bonds are broken and renewed. Notably, aqueous Na+ emerges as a “Goldilocks” ion: its ion-water interactions are strong enough to maintain distinct 5-6 fold coordination shells at zero field (unlike Cs+) yet labile enough to be strongly perturbed by electric fields (unlike Li+). As a consequence, we observe an electric field-induced transition from vehicular to structural ionic transport for Na+ that is accompanied by a marked increase in the ionic current density. Our results imply that the conductance mechanism of ions with moderate ion-solvent interactions can be effectively tuned by external electric fields.

Joll, Kit

Fracture Analysis of Cohesive Zone Models for Modeling Residual Stress Induced Delamination in Composite Structures

A fracture study of coupon-scale composite cylinders with embedded defects was conducted with an objective to assess and validate a modeling approach using two available cohesive material models. The study included experimental and simulation evaluations of initiation of crack growth and progression. Interrupted thermal experiments used acoustic emissions monitoring to identify the onset of crack progression during each cooling interval and ultrasonic scanning provided images of defect growth. Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) processes were performed in the assessment of the simulation predicted temperature at which crack propagation begins (quantity of interest). The Sobol sensitivity analysis identified the hoop direction elastic modulus in the carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) plies as the most influential parameter for simulations using both cohesive models, accounting for at least 70% of the variation in the temperature at crack propagation. The UQ temperature range for the Tvergaard-Hutchinson model was higher (more conservative) than the experimental acoustic measurement indicators of crack progression, while the temperature range for the Thouless-Parmigiani model enveloped the experimental data points for the primary defect size of 0.75 x 1 in. The simulations could not capture the stable crack growth indicated in the experiments. This is likely due to the models’ inability to represent anisotropic fracture toughness attributed to the structure of the orthotropic fiber weave in a woven composite laminate.

42 ENGINEERING

Tunable shear thickening, aging, and rejuvenation in suspensions of shape-memory-endowed liquid crystalline particles

The morphological features of particles, notably shape anisotropy, critically influence the rheological properties of dense suspensions, spanning both natural and engineered systems. This work explores the potential of using shape memory particles to dynamically regulate suspension fluid flow through controllable shape transformations. First, we synthesize shape-memory particles with programmable anisotropy from liquid crystal elastomers, such that the stiffness and shapes of the particles can be tuned by manipulating temperature. Our findings reveal that suspensions from such particles exhibit significant tunability in shear thickening behavior, transitioning from discontinuous shear thickening to a Newtonian-like response within a narrow temperature range of 60 ° C. This capability to modulate rheological responses in situ presents an approach for addressing processing challenges in many applications where control over flow behavior is paramount. Furthermore, we also show that suspensions composed of these anisotropic particles can undergo physical aging, and evolve into a glassy state. This state can be escaped upon activation of the shape memory effect. This reversibility underscores the potential for using such materials to engineer systems that can enter or come out of kinetic arrest by leveraging internal mechanical responses to external stimuli. The insights gained here not only broaden our understanding of the interplay between particle geometry and suspension dynamics but also pave the way for leveraging ensembles of stimuli-responsive objects to precisely control collective behaviors in many-body systems.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part II: Integrated Vehicle

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) thermal management system (TMS) relies on four loop heat pipes (LHPs) to transport electronic waste heat to the vehicle cooling radiative surface and avoid overheating. The TMS has also ten constant conductance heat pipes (CCHPs) dedicated to balance the thermal load within the internal environment where the avionics boxes are mounted, also called warm electronic box (WEB), and to transport the heat from two of the science payload instruments. The TMS also uses two thermal straps to thermally link the batteries to the WEB. These thermal components, in addition to heaters, thermostat, multi-layer insulation (MLIs), and isolators forms the core of the VIPER TMS. The complex heat transport balance managed by the TMS is challenging to characterize and model. The more fidelity and granularity of a model, the more costly the computational resources needed and the longer the simulation and modeling time. When the priority is to provide quick but reliable assessments of the thermal performance or real time thermal feedback for training of console operators, simplified modeling tools are needed. To satisfy that need, this paper describes the effort to develop and correlate a model of VIPER TMS based on control volume approach. The correlation effort in particular focuses on hibernation, cold thermal balance, and hot thermal balance data from the integrated vehicle thermal vacuum (TVAC) test. Thus, the correlated model captures the heat leaks during hibernations and the performance at two extremes, bounding, operating scenarios.

Loop Heat Pipe

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part II: Integrated Vehicle

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) thermal management system (TMS) relies on four loop heat pipes (LHPs) to transport electronic waste heat to the vehicle cooling radiative surface and avoid overheating. The TMS has also ten constant conductance heat pipes (CCHPs) dedicated to balance the thermal load within the internal environment where the avionics boxes are mounted, also called warm electronic box (WEB), and to transport the heat from two of the science payload instruments. The TMS also uses two thermal straps to thermally link the batteries to the WEB. These thermal components, in addition to heaters, thermostat, multi-layer insulation (MLIs), and isolators forms the core of the VIPER TMS. The complex heat transport balance managed by the TMS is challenging to characterize and model. The more fidelity and granularity of a model, the more costly the computational resources needed and the longer the simulation and modeling time. When the priority is to provide quick but reliable assessments of the thermal performance or real time thermal feedback for training of console operators, simplified modeling tools are needed. To satisfy that need, this paper describes the effort to develop and correlate a model of VIPER TMS based on control volume approach. The correlation effort in particular focuses on hibernation, cold thermal balance, and hot thermal balance data from the integrated vehicle thermal vacuum (TVAC) test. Thus, the correlated model captures the heat leaks during hibernations and the performance at two extremes, bounding, operating scenarios.

Thermal Modeling

Bi‐Continuous W‐Rich Refractory High Entropy Alloy‐Cu Composite: Toward Material Innovation of Nuclear Reactor Coolant System

Abstract Refractory high‐entropy alloys (RHEAs) are considered promising candidate materials for next‐generation nuclear reactors due to their superior mechanical strength, irradiation resistance, and thermal stability at high temperatures. However, the significant positive heat of mixing between refractory alloying elements and Cu, commonly used in cooling systems, poses challenges in forming composite structures. This study addresses the issue using a liquid metal dealloying (LMD) process. A precursor alloy (WTaVTi) with a directional dendrite‐interdendrite structure is fabricated and reacted with molten Cu at 1200 °C for 96 h. This approach produced a RHEA‐Cu composite with a stable interface between RHEA (W 31.5 Ta 30.9 V 21.4 Ti 14.3 ) and Cu, featuring a spontaneously formed W‐rich interlayer that enhances interfacial bonding. The composite showed excellent irradiation resistance, with 30% less swelling under α‐ion irradiation than pure W. It also exhibited low thermal conductivity at room temperature, but reached ≈120 W m −1 ·K −1 at ≈650 °C, surpassing pure W. This temperature‐dependent rise in κ, with a positive gradient of +0.075 W m −1 ·K − 2 , is attributed to decreasing diffuse mismatch at elevated temperatures. The large‐scale reaction and stable microstructure achieved through LMD process highlight its industrial potential. This work offers a strategy for developing high‐performance materials by combining RHEA's radiation resistance with Cu's thermal conductivity for extreme environments.

Chemistry

Nonlinear Loss Engineering in Near‐Zero‐Index Bulk Materials

Transparent conducting oxides (TCOs) show unprecedented optical nonlinearities in the near infrared wavelength range, where the real part of their linear refractive index approaches zero. More specifically, the Kerr nonlinearities of these materials have sparked widespread attention due to their magnitude and speed. However, due to the absorptive nature of these nonlinear processes, it is of fundamental interest to further investigate the imaginary component of the nonlinear index. The present work studies the nonlinear optical absorption properties of aluminium‐doped zinc oxide (AZO) thin films in their near‐zero‐index (NZI) spectral window. It is found that the imaginary part of the refractive index is reduced under optical excitation such that the field penetration depth more than doubles. An optically induced shift of the NZI bandwidth of ≈120 nm for a pump intensity of 1.3 TW cm −2 is also demonstrated. Looking into the optically induced spectral redistribution of the probe signal, local net gain is recorded, which is ascribed to a nonlinear adiabatic energy transfer. The present study adds key information about the fundamental interplay between real and imaginary nonlinear indices in NZI media, while advancing parametric amplification as viable direction for loss compensation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Computational discovery of a tetragonal MBene phase: diamond-shaped boron lattices, viable MAB precursors, and selective CO 2 reduction

MBenes are a class of two-dimensional transition-metal borides derived from layered MAB phases. Here, we use first-principles calculations to predict a new tetragonal MB (1 : 1) MBene phase featuring a diamond-shaped B–B lattice and systematically assess its phase stability, synthetic accessibility, and catalytic performance towards the CO 2 reduction reaction (CO 2 RR). Four tetragonal configurations are benchmarked against known hexagonal and orthorhombic phases, and a multi-tier screening identifies six robust members (CrB, FeB, MoB, WB, IrB, and PtB). Exploration of the I4/mmm MAB space reveals 11 viable precursors, including the experimentally synthesized Ir 2 ZnB 2 , which validates our screening approach. CO 2 RR free-energy diagrams show that CrB favors CH 3 OH while FeB, MoB, WB, IrB, and PtB preferentially yield HCOOH. The corresponding limiting potentials are competitive with, and in some cases superior to, those reported for state-of-the-art orthorhombic and hexagonal MBenes. These findings expand the MBene landscape by establishing a tetragonal phase with structural, synthetic, and catalytic promise.

Lu, Linguo [University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, P

Predicting Team Functioning in Long Term Space Missions Using Acoustic and Linguistic Measures

Maintaining optimal team functioning is critical for long-duration space exploration missions, yet traditional monitoring methods, such as self-reports and wearable sensors, often impose operational burdens or suffer from bias. This paper investigates a non-intrusive speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) framework to predict degradations in team functioning using data from the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Using acoustic features, linguistic descriptors, and semantic embeddings, we evaluate static non-linear and temporal machine learning models to predict both objective (task accuracy) and subjective (self-reported efficacy and cohesion) team functioning outcomes. Results indicate that temporal models outperform static approaches, with prediction of objective task accuracy in Team Interaction Battery (TIB) improving from near chance to 71%. Self-reported outcomes, including team efficacy and cohesion, are predicted more reliably than task performance, achieving balanced accuracies of up to 85.56% and 78.12%, respectively, and are found to be most strongly associated with acoustic features. In a second interdependent task, the MMSEV–EVA, accuracies of up to 78% are achieved using temporal models with acoustic features. Furthermore, incorporating just 1–2 days of team-specific historical data systematically improved performance, and acoustic markers from informal pre-task interactions provided modest predictive gains. Finally, while automated preprocessing yielded viable accuracy, humancorrected data provided moderate performance gains, though transcription error rates did not significantly correlate with model performance. These findings highlight the potential of speech as a passive, high-fidelity monitoring tool for autonomous habitats.

Temporal modeling

Fast, Nondestructive and Precise Biomass Measurements Are Possible Using Lidar-Based Convex Hull and Voxelization Algorithms

Light detection and ranging (lidar) scanning tools are available that can make rapid digital estimations of biomass. Voxelization and convex hull are two algorithms used to calculate the volume of the scanned plant canopy, which is correlated with biomass, often the primary trait of interest. Voxelization splits the scans into regular-sized cubes, or voxels, whereas the convex hull algorithm creates a polygon mesh around the outermost points of the point cloud and calculates the volume within that mesh. In this study, digital estimates of biomass were correlated against hand-harvested biomass for field-grown corn, broom corn, and energy sorghum. Voxelization (r = 0.92) and convex hull (r = 0.95) both correlated well with plant dry biomass. Lidar data were also collected in a large breeding trial with nearly 900 genotypes of energy sorghum. In contrast to the manual harvest studies, digital biomass estimations correlated poorly with yield collected from a forage harvester for both voxel count (r = 0.32) and convex hull volume (r = 0.39). However, further analysis showed that the coefficient of variation (CV, a measure of variability) for harvester-based estimates of biomass was greater than the CV of the voxel and convex-hull-based biomass estimates, indicating that poor correlation was due to harvester imprecision, not digital estimations. Overall, results indicate that the lidar-based digital biomass estimates presented here are comparable or more precise than current approaches.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Osmotic and phoretic competition explains chemotaxic assembly and sorting

Microscale objects responding to chemical gradients by migrating toward or away from a preferred species is a simple yet constitutive mechanism by which transport occurs in biological organisms. Synthetic chemotaxis provides key physical descriptions of simplified systems that can be used in biological models, or in the creation of advanced responsive material systems. In this article, we provide a quantitative framework for understanding synthetic chemotaxis of microparticles which involves a competition between phoresis and osmosis. We present separate quantitative measurements of phoresis and osmosis acting on individual taxing particles, finding that phoresis follows the long-predicted v ∼ 1 / r 2 scaling while the osmotic contribution depends on the geometry and details of the system, and must be solved on a case-by-case basis. Through this, we are able to develop a more accurate picture of particle transport at the single particle level. Equipped with this approach, we go on to describe how high concentrations of particles in a symmetric chemical gradient grow close-packed hives that reach a steady-state size tunable through light intensity or particle size. Last, we demonstrate that mixed particles experiencing the same chemical gradient will selectively migrate toward or away depending on the nature of the particle surface, thereby locally sorting out a particular species. We anticipate these results will be important in describing both biological and synthetic chemotaxis in phoretic systems and should bring a wealth of studies that take advantage of competing osmotic flows to illicit unexpected dynamic active behavior.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning