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The Role of NASA Engineering & Safety Center (NESC) in Advancing NASA's Earth Science Missions (Past, Present, and Future)

The NASA Engineering & Safety Center (NESC) was established in 2003 to provide an independent technical resource for the resolution of challenging technical problems (through the use of studies, analysis, tests, etc.). Since its inception, NESC has completed nearly 1000 technical assessments for NASA’s Human Exploration and Operation Mission Directorate (HEOMD), Science Mission Directorate (SMD), Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), and Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD). Of the SMD related assessments, several were for the resolution of technical problems, analysis, or studies related to NASA’s Earth science missions in various phases of the project from design to operation. Some of the recent examples of NESC technical support for NASA (or NOAA) Earth science missions have been for: Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-II), Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the soon to be launched collaboration mission with India, NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR). In this paper, we outline some of the technical challenges faced by these Earth science missions and describe how NESC contributed to their resolution. The case studies cover a wide range of disciplines involving space lidars, radars, electronics, attitude control systems, as well as Micrometeoroid Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk assessment impact to NASA missions. The efforts include strategies for risk mitigation, technical resolution of challenging problems, and failure root cause investigations combined with lessons learned reports to advance discipline knowledge, enhance NASA capabilities, and avoid future problems.

NASA↗

Utilizing Open-Source Earth Observations to Inform the Toa Baja Municipality’s Flood Risk Mitigation Efforts and Educate the Public

Global climate changes contribute to more intense and frequent tropical storms, subjecting places like Toa Baja, Puerto Rico to critical damage. Known as “the underwater city” due to its propensity to flood, residents of Toa Baja face constant flood risk. During extreme tropical storm events, such as Hurricane Maria in 2017, residents experienced up to 20 feet of inundation. The NASA DEVELOP National Program collaborated with the Municipio Autónomo de Toa Baja, ResilientSEE-PR, and the MIT Urban Risk Lab to supplement 2018 FEMA HEC-RAS flood maps that designate 63% of Toa Baja as a flood plain. This analysis provides a high-resolution interpretation of flood risk through two lenses; susceptibility and vulnerability. For this analysis, susceptibility consists of nine weighted layers: NDVI, landcover, slope, elevation, topographic wetness index, height above nearest drainage, saturated hydraulic conductivity, distance to water, and storm surge. These factors are consistently used to evaluate susceptibility to flood, but their weights vary by analysis. Vulnerability consists of population, informal settlements, and building density, which were given equal weight. Susceptibility and vulnerability were combined to map flood risk. This analysis used a bivariate legend to understand the different levels of risk along a spectrum from low susceptibility and low vulnerability (low risk) to high susceptibility and high vulnerability (high risk). Data processed in Google Earth Engine, which identified historical inundation on various occasions, were used to validate the flood susceptibility layers. Results showed 89% of areas designated as high susceptibility are located within the floodway designated by the FEMA HEC-RAS maps. The eastern region of Toa Baja is most at risk for flooding due to high susceptibility to flooding along with a high density of population, buildings, and informal settlements. The resulting map also reveals the presence of smaller high-risk areas all around the municipality. This analysis provides scientific evidence for flood risk mitigation in Toa Baja by highlighting areas that might be impacted by strong floods in the future. Additionally, these results are communicated in an Esri ArcGIS StoryMap, an accessible platform that can easily inform the public about the flood risk in their neighborhood.

Adriana Le Compte↗

Contracting Quality Early in the Lifecycle Using AS9145 Data Deliverables

Development schedules and a highly dynamic supply chain are a challenge to developers of complex systems produced at low volume. Flaws in designs, parts and materials availability problems, poor manufacturability, and a lack of knowledge about critical items and key process attributes can be realized well before traditional second-party quality assurance activities begin. Supplier audits and product inspections may have little mitigating effect once these foundational problems have been realized. Their impacts can be significant lifecycle disruption, cost overruns, inability to deliver to plan, and even project cancellation. AS9145, Requirements for Advanced Product Quality Planning and Production Part Approval Process, can be used to drive quality engineering practices into early development lifecycles to significantly reduce this late-cycle risk and to reduce the cost of quality overall. Since its initial publication in 2016, it has had very limited adoption by the DoD, no adoption by NASA, and sparse adoption in the aerospace and defense supply chain. A task group within the Aerospace Industries Association's (AIA) Joint Strategic Quality Council (JSQC) identified that both acquirers and suppliers see as AS9145 as a cost-adder and are hesitant to use it as an alternative to late-stage-heavy quality assurance approaches. A lack of prior use creates large capability gaps in request-for-proposal (RFP) teams, proposal teams, suppliers’ quality management systems (QMS), and in experienced personnel executing the early lifecycle approach. To create a more realizable on-ramp for using AS9145 in the space and defense sectors, the AIA JSQC task team created five deliverable requirements descriptions (DRDs) that can be used in a contract to begin to engage both parties in early lifecycle quality engineering and quality assurance activities, that reduce exposure to late-stage cost and schedule collapse due to unidentified risks in design, supply chain, and manufacturability. These DRDs drive the parties to engage in planning and analysis discussions early on to understand what production risks can be known and how they will focus resources based on safety criticality and the key elements of design and construction. The suppliers and acquirers who will produce the data and information required by the DRD will be able to incrementally evolve their QMS and the acquirer will incrementally be able to track and understand the benefits of cost shifting from late to early development phases. A white paper describing this approach and the five recommended DRDs will be published by the AIA in late 2024 or early 2025.

Jeannette Plante↗

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms for Fire Prediction in Southeast Asia

Vegetation fires are prevalent in South/Southeast Asian countries, making fire prediction crucial due to their potential environmental, economic, and social impacts. Accurate predictions of fires facilitate timely interventions, helping to mitigate uncontrolled fires that can lead to biodiversity loss and air quality issues. In this study, we utilize VIIRS satellite-derived fire data alongside six machine learning and deep learning models—Simple Persistence, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), CNN-LSTM, and ConvLSTM—to determine the most effective fire prediction model, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the metric. Our results indicate that the CNN model is the most reliable in regions with spatial dependencies, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Thailand. Conversely, the ConvLSTM model excels in countries with complex spatiotemporal dynamics like Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. The CNN-LSTM hybrid model also performed well in Cambodia, suggesting a need for a balanced approach in areas requiring both spatial and temporal feature extraction. Furthermore, simpler models like Persistence and MLP showed limitations in capturing dynamic patterns and temporal dependencies. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating models before implementing any decision support systems (DSS) in fire management. By tailoring models to specific regional fire data, we can enhance prediction accuracy and responsiveness, ultimately improving fire risk management in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Deep learning↗

Regolith Adaptive Modification Systems (Rams) - Final Report

Establishing human habitation on the Moon or Mars requires a palette of reaction chemistries for deconstructing extraterrestrial soils to extract structural metals, fuels, and propellants, as well as consolidating the soils into load-bearing forms. This report outlines progress related to the fundamental chemistry of in-situ resource utilization that is the focus of our Regolith Adaptive Modification System (RAMS) NIAC project. The RAMS concept is a breakthrough approach for preparing surfaces for early landing sites–and subsequent settlement operations–on the Lunar and Martian surface, among others. The RAMS concept is aligned with aspirations and capabilities of planned NASA Artemis mission. The approach is predicated on the sequential delivery of microcapsules onto lunar and Martian surfaces, which upon rupture, release payloads that react with regolith to yield geopolymerized subsurface slabs and surface high-strength steel skin and anchors . Through successively more exothermic reactions, we are seeking to build subsurface geopolymer slabs and use thermite reactions to constitute micro-alloyed advanced high-strength steel (AHSS) and Ti—Al—V pads on surfaces of planetary bodies, thereby circumventing the need for energy-intensive sintering technologies. As a precursor delivery system used to constitute landingpads, RAMS can be scaled for robotic, human-class, and more prominent (i.e., Starship) landers and will be configured within pressurized delivery systems that use radio beacons to outline coordinates for precision landings. Microcapsule delivery systems are designed to impel precursors (nanothermite mixtures and organosilanes), which activate in response to stress, heat, or impact to constitute deep geopolymerized slabs and AHSS skins. Dust mitigation is accomplished by reaction/solidification chemistry that yields a subsurface slab and advanced high-strength steel skin and anchors.

2021 NIAC Phase I↗

Analysis of Launch Vehicle Liftoff Debris: Historical Perspective from Space Shuttle and Application to Artemis I

Human exploration-class launch vehicles are inherently prone to debris due to the extreme environments generated during pre-launch operations, liftoff, and flight. The use of cryogenic propellants often requires thermal protection system (TPS) coatings, typically foam, to maintain the propellant conditions in the tank and prevent an accumulation ice on the external surface of the vehicle. Some ice growth is to be expected at umbilical interfaces, vents, flanges, or brackets where it is difficult to apply TPS. This ice may come loose at any time due to wind on the launch pad, structural vibration and acoustics after rocket ignition, or aerodynamic forces during flight. This phenomena is especially apparent on vehicles with no TPS, such as the Saturn V rockets used in the Apollo Program, see Figure 1. During propellant tanking, the thermal contraction of the underlying substrate may generate cracks in the TPS (Figure 1). Chunks of TPS can release due to the expansion of ingested gas from cryopumping or from aerodynamic forces if the crack creates an offset surface. Most foams will also have a certain amount of “popcorning” where small pieces of foam will pop off during flight because of the differential between the static surface pressure and the pressure of the gas trapped in the foam cell structure. There are a number of other coating or closeout materials that may be shed from the vehicle and become debris. During pre-launch operations and liftoff, the vehicle may also be exposed to debris originating from the launch pad or ground support equipment. This debris is separate from foreign object debris, or FOD, which is not intended to be present and is strictly controlled through operations and maintenance procedures. In this case, debris is generated from hardware and materials that are necessary for launch and are subject to the intense vibration, acoustics, and direct plume impingement of the launch environment. Examples include ice from umbilicals, tape and tie wraps that protect cables, and rust or corrosion from the launch platform. While NASA has historically been aware of debris as a potential issue that could cause a failure resulting in loss of mission, loss of vehicle, or loss of crew, the likelihood and severity of that risk was not always well understood or given sufficient weight in program and flight decisions. After the Space Shuttle Columbia accident (STS-107), the investigation found that foam TPS debris shed from the external tank was the proximate cause of the damage to the orbiter wing. Six previous observations of debris released from the foam ramp that covered the bipod connecting the forward end of the orbiter to the external tank resulted in minor changes or were determined to be accepted flight risks. Two occurrences of bipod ramp foam loss were not identified until the STS-107 investigation. Despite the damage inflicted by these debris strikes, the Shuttle Program Requirements Control Board deemed the vehicle safe to fly. During the Return to Flight effort following the Columbia disaster, NASA Engineering developed a process for the assessment of debris transport, impact, and damage tolerance to support independent assessments of risk by NASA Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA). Under this system, each element (vehicle or ground system) defines a catalog of all expected debris based on launch history, component testing, or analysis. Debris transport analysis (DTA) is conducted using the debris catalog characteristics and potential flow transport mechanisms (e.g., vehicle aerodynamics, gravity, wind, plume-driven). The predicted debris impact locations and velocities are provided to the hardware owners, who use available test data and analysis to determine whether each component can withstand the impacts. In cases where the element hardware may be severely damaged or fail, the options are to mitigate the debris source through some change in design or operation, or to work with S&MA to try to characterize the probability of the impact and damage for program risk acceptance. Because of the differences in debris characteristics and transport, the DTA has been divided between the Liftoff and Ascent regimes. The development and application of Liftoff DTA methodology from the Shuttle Program to the current Artemis Program is the subject of this paper. Liftoff DTA covers the time from the start of pre-launch operations at the launch pad, up until the vehicle clears the launch tower and there is no longer any interaction with ground systems. Debris transport during this period is broadly classified as either gravity, wind, and plume-entrained (GWPE) or plume driven (PD). GWPE debris is generally lower speed, travelling in a forward-to-aft direction. PD transport includes flow features from the rocket ignition transient, as well as plume impingement and recirculation that occur as the vehicle lifts off the launch platform. In these cases, the debris typically moves in an aft-to-forward direction at higher speeds. The applicable transport mechanisms must be considered for each piece of debris depending on the material, and release location and time. For example, rust or metallic debris from the tower could fall (GWPE) and impact the vehicle before landing on the launch platform deck where it could be also be transported by plume impingement (PD). However, falling ice (GWPE) from an umbilical is unlikely to survive impact with the vehicle or launch platform and be available for PD transport. Modeling of debris transport is accomplished using a set of DTA tools which simulate debris trajectories subject to a reference frame acceleration (i.e., gravity) and aerodynamic drag. Where the trajectory encounters a solid surface, the debris is allowed to rebound with a specified coefficient of restitution. The drag is calculated by interpolating the fluid state at each point in the debris trajectory from high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the launch vehicle and pad. The CFD data may either be static (steady state or time averaged), typically for GWPE transport, or dynamic (time-accurate) for PD flow features like the ignition transient. Examples of the CFD flow field solutions for the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and launch pad are shown in Figure 2. Typical SLS debris trajectory predictions from DTA are illustrated in Figure 3. The final version of this paper will include a more detailed examination of the Liftoff DTA process developed during the Shuttle Program, and how it has been augmented and applied to the SLS rocket under the Artemis Program. Comparisons with debris observations from the Artemis I launch will demonstrate validation of the tools and methodology.

Debris↗

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

policies↗

Novel Ice Mitigation Methods

After the loss of Columbia, there was great concern in the Space Shuttle program for the impact of debris against the leading edges of the Orbiter wings. It was quickly recognized that, in addition to impacts by foam, ice that formed on the liquid-oxygen bellows running down the outside of the External Tank could break free during launch and hit this sensitive area. A Center Director s Discretionary Fund (CDDF) project would concentrate on novel ideas that were potentially applicable. The most successful of the new concepts for ice mitigation involved shape memory alloy materials. These materials can be bent into a given shape and, when heated, will return to their original shape.

Source record↗

Methodology for Designing Fault-Protection Software

A document describes a methodology for designing fault-protection (FP) software for autonomous spacecraft. The methodology embodies and extends established engineering practices in the technical discipline of Fault Detection, Diagnosis, Mitigation, and Recovery; and has been successfully implemented in the Deep Impact Spacecraft, a NASA Discovery mission. Based on established concepts of Fault Monitors and Responses, this FP methodology extends the notion of Opinion, Symptom, Alarm (aka Fault), and Response with numerous new notions, sub-notions, software constructs, and logic and timing gates. For example, Monitor generates a RawOpinion, which graduates into Opinion, categorized into no-opinion, acceptable, or unacceptable opinion. RaiseSymptom, ForceSymptom, and ClearSymptom govern the establishment and then mapping to an Alarm (aka Fault). Local Response is distinguished from FP System Response. A 1-to-n and n-to- 1 mapping is established among Monitors, Symptoms, and Responses. Responses are categorized by device versus by function. Responses operate in tiers, where the early tiers attempt to resolve the Fault in a localized step-by-step fashion, relegating more system-level response to later tier(s). Recovery actions are gated by epoch recovery timing, enabling strategy, urgency, MaxRetry gate, hardware availability, hazardous versus ordinary fault, and many other priority gates. This methodology is systematic, logical, and uses multiple linked tables, parameter files, and recovery command sequences. The credibility of the FP design is proven via a fault-tree analysis "top-down" approach, and a functional fault-mode-effects-and-analysis via "bottoms-up" approach. Via this process, the mitigation and recovery strategy(s) per Fault Containment Region scope (width versus depth) the FP architecture.

Barltrop, Kevin↗

Near-Earth Object Surveyor Overview

The Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor is designed to detect, categorize and characterize Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) using infrared imaging. The project was approved to enter the preliminary design phase (Phase B) in FY21 after an extended Concept Development Phase (Phase A). The NEO Surveyor project responds to US Public Law 109-155[1], National Research Council’s report “Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys & Hazard Mitigation Strategies (2010)”[2], the U. S. National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan (June 2018)[3], and the objectives of NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). The goals of the NEO Surveyor project are to: (1) identify impact hazards to the Earth posed by NEOs (defined as asteroids and comets that come within 1.3 AU of the Sun) by performing a comprehensive survey of the NEO population; (2) obtain detailed physical characterization data for individual objects that are likely to pose an impact hazard; (3) characterize the entire population of potentially hazardous NEOs to inform potential mitigation strategies. The mission will make significant progress toward the George E. Brown, Jr. NEO Survey Program objective defined by the U. S. Congress of detecting, tracking, cataloging, and characterizing at least 90% of NEOs equal to or larger than 140 m in diameter. The project is a collaboration between NASA-JPL, the University of Arizona (UA) and industry, with Ball Aerospace notably providing the spacecraft and key instrument elements. This paper will describe the overall NEO Surveyor Project objectives, initial spacecraft and instrument design and development plans and mission concept.

Veto, Michael↗

Wear-Resistance Investigations on Ceramic Coatings for Lunar Dust Mitigation

Lunar dust has posed a major challenge to exploration efforts due to abrasion and impact. This work focuses on fundamental studies on ceramic coatings as candidates for enhanced resistance to impact and wear. As a first step, standard and modified approaches to the method of abrasion testing were explored for options to incorporate lunar regolith as wear media, the effects of which were presented for AL6061-T6 control samples. Following this, wear results for air plasma-sprayed (APS) alumina coatings were investigated due to their superior strength and surface hardness. In addition, APS 8 wt % yttria-stabilized zirconia (8YSZ) coatings were studied for their strength and martensitic transformation toughness. Measurements were made by assessing the mass loss, with a standard scale at various intervals. In addition, surface roughness was measured with a profilometer and features identified with a high-resolution microscope. The findings demonstrated that wear media has a distinct effect on the abrasion. The alumina coatings demonstrated improved wear over 8YSZ. However, the tailorability of 8YSZ makes it an attractive option to continue to modify as a wear-resistant coating to protect against lunar dust abrasion. The results of these measurements provide insight into the wear behavior of future directions in candidate ceramic coatings for the harsh lunar environment.

ceramic coatings↗

Wear-Resistance Investigations on Ceramic Coatings for Lunar Dust Mitigation

Lunar dust has posed a major challenge to exploration efforts due to abrasion and impact. This work focuses on fundamental studies on ceramic coatings as candidates for enhanced resistance to impact and wear. As a first step, standard and modified approaches to the method of abrasion testing were explored for options to incorporate lunar regolith as wear media, the effects of which were presented for AL6061-T6 control samples. Following this, wear results for air plasma-sprayed (APS) alumina coatings were investigated due to their superior strength and surface hardness. In addition, APS 8 wt % yttria-stabilized zirconia (8YSZ) coatings were studied for their strength and martensitic transformation toughness. Measurements were made by assessing the mass loss, with a standard scale at various intervals. In addition, surface roughness was measured with a profilometer and features identified with a high-resolution microscope. The findings demonstrated that wear media has a distinct effect on the abrasion. The alumina coatings demonstrated improved wear over 8YSZ. However, the tailorability of 8YSZ makes it an attractive option to continue to modify as a wear-resistant coating to protect against lunar dust abrasion. The results of these measurements provide insight into the wear behavior of future directions in candidate ceramic coatings for the harsh lunar environment.

ceramic coatings↗

On the Characterization and Mitigation of Noise in Space-borne Microwave Sounding Instruments

Space-borne microwave sounding instruments have become vital data sources for weather prediction and climate change studies. Among the various radiometer configurations, the total power microwave radiometer is particularly appealing for current and future operational satellites due to its superior sensitivity and simple design. However, its performance is vulnerable to degradation caused by receiver gain fluctuations, electronic 1/f noise, and other time varying receiver characteristics. For Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) users, 1/f noise introduces inter-channel correlations, complicating the assimilation of affected observations and reducing their accuracy. Addressing this noise issue in ground data processing system is essential to enhance the utility of microwave sounding data. This paper focuses on the characterization and mitigation of noise in current and future microwave sounding instruments, with particular emphasis on the impact of 1/f noise. Various methods are applied to quantitatively characterize noise features in both frequency and time domains. Additionally, the influence of calibration parameters on 1/f noise are analyzed. Based on these findings, we propose a mitigation algorithm for reducing noise during the on-orbit calibration of microwave sounding instruments, aiming to improve the quality of retrieved data for operational use.

calibration↗

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Climate change↗

Historical and Future Changes in Air Pollutants from CMIP6 Models

Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth's climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models consistently overestimate observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons by up to 16 ppb, with a large diversity in simulated values over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated in CMIP6 models by up to 10 µg m−3, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. The biases in CMIP6 models when compared to observations of O3 and PM2.5 are similar to those found in previous studies. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th century, when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants across East and South Asia with an annual mean increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), annual mean increases in both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m−3) are simulated across most regions, although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated due to the regional reduction in precursor emissions in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important regional differences due to the simulated interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The projection of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasise the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources, e.g. response of biogenic emissions under climate change.

Air pollutants↗

microRNA Based Countermeasure Mitigate Health Risks Associated with Space Radiation and Microgravity

From our earlier work, we demonstrated a circulating microRNA (miRNA) signature that is present and involved with the general increased health risks during spaceflight. From this work we demonstrated that this miRNA signature impacted the overall biology and health with both the microgravity and space radiation components of the space environment. We showed that this miRNA signature can be an optimal biomarker for health risk and also has potential to be utilized as a countermeasure to mitigate the damage caused by the space environment by utilizing a human 3D microvascular tissue model. By applying a novel self-delivery system to target 3 miRNAs (i.e. antagomirs) from our spaceflight miRNA signature impacting cardiovascular health risks, we were able to completely mitigate damage caused by exposure to simulated Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) irradiation. Here we further expand on the countermeasure experiments to uncover the specific novel biology involved with this countermeasure and in vivo experiments that demonstrates that these antagomirs rescue damage caused to certain organs due to both microgravity and space radiation. Specifically, the miRNAs rescued damage to the heart and immune suppression that occurred in addition to other key biology. In addition, we have also observed with the 3D microvascular tissue model improved DNA double strand break repair machinery which can also contribute to improved recovery and protection against damage caused by space radiation. This work expands on our previous work and further uncovers how a potential minimally invasive countermeasure can be used to mitigate space environment effects.

Afshin Beheshti↗

Operational Techniques in Microgravity for Cryogenic Fluid Management

Management of cryogens in microgravity is a critical challenge for exploration missions to the Moon and Mars. Operational strategies to aid in cryogenic fluid management (CFM) are proposed and demonstrated using computational fluid dynamics simulations. Application of axial settling thrust is an essential – but potentially expensive – tool for CFM. Demonstrations show that its utilization and timing are important during certain unsettling events, such as engine cutoff. At other times, substantial savings can be realized by reducing the average acceleration (through pulsing thrusters, for example). If the metric for reaching a settled condition is a particular number of slosh periods, then fewer settling resources are needed with a lower acceleration. Alternatively, if a target wave amplitude is the settling objective, then a lower average acceleration will also allow for a higher allowable amplitude for the same heat transfer. Savings can also be obtained by rolling the vehicle, which can mitigate lateral slosh. Advantages and disadvantages of anti-slosh baffles are also discussed along with practical examples of their impact on CFM and ullage collapse. Ullage collapse examples are presented along with recommendations for slewing a vehicle with angular and translational acceleration to mitigate mixing between liquid and ullage.

Cryogenic Fluid Management↗

Oxidative Stress and the Neuroconsequences of Spaceflight Environment - Immune Dysregulation and Antioxidant Dietary Countermeasure Efficacy

In this project, we will test the hypothesis that Ionizing Radiation (IR), microgravity and social isolation combine synergistically to trigger an oxidative stress response that alters immune homeostasis, brain structure and function, and neurobehavioral and cognitive performance. Specific Aims for this project are: (1) Determine dose-response curves for acute ‘Five-Ion GCR Simulation’ exposure for immune, brain and performance responses in crew age-matched adult male and female mice; (2) Determine effects of acute ‘Five-Ion GCR Simulation’ exposure singly and in combination with simulated microgravity and social isolation, on immune, brain and performance responses in crew age-matched male and female mice mimicking deep space missions; and (3) Determine efficacy of the dietary antioxidant, Nicotinamide Mononucleotide (NMN), a key intermediate in nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+) biosynthesis. The project relies on established and highly translatable ground-based mouse models and assays with IR exposures to be performed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). The experimental approach will provide definitive data on the timing and mechanisms involved in the oxidative stress response, immune and brain changes, and ensuing functional (behavioral/cognitive) impairments expected during human transit to Mars. This project will identify potential biomarkers for, and mechanisms underlying, structural and functional changes in the immune and nervous systems leading to behavioral/cognitive performance deficits, and its potential application to develop effective countermeasures to mitigate negative health effects of long duration space habitation. The project will address NASA’s efforts to rapidly advance the characterization of risks and identify appropriate countermeasures in anticipation of future deep space missions. Ensuring crew health and performance during extended transits necessitates that sensorimotor and cognitive abilities remain strong to avoid potentially catastrophic health and safety outcomes. Further, despite historically low numbers of female astronauts, the two most recent NASA Astronaut Corps class selections, comprised of ~50% women as compared to men, signal the need to understand how sex differences affect physiological adaptation and health in the space environment. Here, we will determine how key features of the deep space environment may interact to increase risk to crewmembers by negatively impacting health and performance, and identify and develop strategies to characterize and mitigate the potential risks via countermeasures. Supported by the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) Human Factors Behavioral Performance Element Grant 18-18FLAG_2-0028.

radiation↗