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Analysis Program 2022 Annual Progress Report

The VTO Analysis Program supports mission-critical technological, economic, and interdisciplinary analyses to assist in prioritizing VTO technology investments and to inform research portfolio planning. These efforts provide essential vehicle and market data, modeling and simulation, and integrated and applied analyses, using the unique capabilities, analytical tools, and expertise resident in the DOE’s national laboratory system. VTO Analysis projects also demonstrate additional capabilities and expertise provided by research partnerships that may include academia, the private sector, and non-profit organizations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Analysis Program (2023 Annual Progress Report)

This document summarizes the progress of VTO Analysis projects supported during the fiscal year 2023. The VTO Analysis Program supports mission-critical technological, economic, and interdisciplinary analyses to assist in prioritizing VTO technology investments and to inform research portfolio planning. These efforts provide essential vehicle and market data, modeling and simulation, and integrated and applied analyses, using the unique capabilities, analytical tools, and expertise resident in the DOE’s national laboratory system. VTO Analysis projects also demonstrate additional capabilities and expertise provided by research partnerships that may include academia, the private sector, and non-profit organizations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Assessment of Local Observation of Atomic Ordering in Alloys via the Radial Distribution Function: A Computational and Experimental Approach

As a powerful analytical technique, atom probe tomography (APT) has the capacity to acquire the spatial distribution of millions of atoms from a complex sample. However, extracting information at the Ångstrom-scale on atomic ordering remains a challenge due to the limits of the APT experiment and data analysis algorithms. The development of new computational tools enable visualization of the data and aid understanding of the physical phenomena such as disorder of complex crystalline structures. Here, we report progress towards this goal using two steps. We describe a computational approach to evaluate atomic ordering in the crystal structure by generating radial distribution functions (RDF). Atomic ordering is rendered as the Fractional Cumulative Radial Distribution Function (FCRDF) which allows for greater visibility of local compositions at short range in the structure. Further, we accommodate in the analysis additional parameters such as uncertainty in the atomic coordinates and the atomic abundance to ascertain short-range ordering in APT data sets. We applied the FCRDF analysis to synthetic and experimental APT data sets for Ni 3 Al. The ability to observe a signal of atomic ordering consistent with the known L1 2 crystal structure is heavily dependent on spatial uncertainty, irrespective of abundance. Detection of atomic ordering is subject to an upper limit of spatial uncertainty of atoms described with Gaussian distributions with a standard deviation of 1.3 Å. The FCRDF analysis was also applied to the APT data set for a six-component alloy, Al 1.3 CoCrCuFeNi. In this case, we are currently able to visualize elemental segregation at the nanoscale, though unambiguous identification of atomic ordering at the Ångstrom (nearest-neighbor) scale remains a goal.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cybersecurity for Distributed Energy Resources: All Hazards Approach for Grid Modernization

Distributed energy resources (DER) sit at the intersection of IoT and critical infrastructure. As we work towards clean energy and decarbonization targets, high rates of growth of DER are expected, making them an important component of generation and grid services. They have been a part of the explosion of internet connected devices developed to solve real-world problems and make life easier by providing clean, local energy and enable the smart management of grid services. However, the quick-to-market, low-cost drivers for DER, combined with a historically relative low-impact has meant that cybersecurity has not been a top priority. So as DER penetration increases, will DER be a part of the growing challenge of securing the grid, or part of the solution for necessary grid modernization? In this talk, we will discuss the factors that have led to our current position and what makes cybersecurity for DER unique. A wide range of research is conducted at national labs, in partnership with industry and academia, to inform everything from standards and regulation, to the development of cyber-physical anomaly detection through use of digital twins, and even advanced threat analytics to SBOM and HBOM tracking. Even with this multi-faceted approach to the challenges, the question remains: is this too little too late or are we doing enough to secure the grid for the next 30 years?

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Anatomy of information scrambling and decoherence in the integrable Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model

The growth of information scrambling, captured by out-of-time-order correlation functions (OTOCs), is a central indicator of the nature of many-body quantum dynamics. Here, we compute analytically the complete time dependence of the OTOC for an integrable Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model, 𝑁 Majoranas with random two-body interactions of infinite range, coupled to a Markovian bath at finite temperature. In the limit of no coupling to the bath, the time evolution of scrambling experiences different stages. For 𝑡≲√𝑁, after an initial polynomial growth, the OTOC approaches saturation in a power-law fashion with oscillations superimposed. At 𝑡∼√𝑁, the OTOC reverses trend and starts to decrease linearly in time. The reason for this linear decrease is that, despite being a subleading 1/𝑁 effect, the OTOC in this region is governed by the spectral form factor of the antisymmetric couplings of the SYK model. The linear decrease stops at 𝑡∼2⁢𝑁, the Heisenberg time, where saturation occurs. The effect of the environment is an overall exponential decay of the OTOC for times longer than the inverse of the coupling strength to the bath. Here, the oscillations at 𝑡≲√𝑁 indicate lack of thermalization—a desired feature for better performance of quantum information devices.

Open quantum systems & decoherence↗

Computational modeling of charge hopping dynamics along a disordered one-dimensional wire with energy gradients in quantum environments

This computational study investigates the effects of energy gradients on charge hopping dynamics along a one-dimensional chain of discrete sites coupled to quantum bath, which is modeled at the level of Pauli master equation (PME). This study also assesses the performance of different approximations for the hopping rates. Three different methods for solving the PME, a fourth order Runge–Kutta method, numerical diagonalization of the rate matrix followed by analytic propagation, and kinetic Monte Carlo simulation method, are tested and confirmed to produce virtually identical values of time dependent mean square displacement, diffusion constant, and mobility. Five different rate expressions, exact numerical evaluation of Fermi’s Golden Rule (FGR) rate, stationary phase interpolation (SPI) approximation, semiclassical approximation, classical Marcus rate, and Miller–Abrahams rate, are tested to help understand the effects of approximations in representing quantum environments in the presence of energy gradients. The results based on direct numerical evaluation of FGR rate exhibit transition from diffusive to non-diffusive behavior with the increase in the gradient and show that the charge transport in the quantum bath is more sensitive to the magnitude of the gradient and the disorder than in the classical bath. Among all the four approximations for the hopping rates, the SPI approximation is confirmed to work best overall. A comparison of two different methods to calculate the mobility identifies drift motion of the population distribution as the major source of non-diffusive behavior and provides more reliable information on the contribution of quantum bath.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Tandem Predictions for HPC Jobs

At the core of the predictive analytics applied to High Performance Computing (HPC), the most prominent tasks are the prediction of job runtimes and the prediction of job queue times, both of which have the potential for informing HPC users during their every-day decision making. Accurate runtime predictions can help users better choose so-called wallclock times at job submission, decreasing the odds of their jobs waiting in queues longer than necessary. The accurate and timely queue time predictions offered for the available partitions can inform the favorable selection of partitions for running jobs. This potential is well understood as we see in the abundance of research studies that propose solutions for these tasks, including the work published in the last several years. These tasks are seemingly receptive to the Machine Learning (ML) solutions, considering that there is no shortage of training data where HPC centers over time run millions and millions of jobs. However, we study the existing research literature, as well as look for examples in the toolchains supported on the exemplar HPC facilities, and, surprisingly, do not find any practical solutions that are ready to be adopted. We interpret this as a manifestation of the shortage of UX/UI efforts that support HPC analytics and also as a sign that the research has not come to the consensus on solving these tasks. In this study, we aim to shed new light on the long-running task of job queue time prediction by exploring the utility of runtime predictions in improving prediction accuracy and, actually, predicting these two metrics together, in tandem. In other words, we show how runtime predictions become valuable input in the queue time modeling. We challenge the existing approaches to feature engineering for the queue time prediction and describe promising results we obtained for a large dataset of HPC jobs from a supercomputer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

HPC↗

Tandem Predictions for HPC Jobs: Preprint

At the core of the predictive analytics applied to High Performance Computing (HPC), the most prominent tasks are the prediction of job runtimes and the prediction of job queue times, both of which have the potential for informing HPC users during their every-day decision making. Accurate runtime predictions can help users better choose so-called wallclock times at job submission, decreasing the odds of their jobs waiting in queues longer than necessary. The accurate and timely queue time predictions offered for the available partitions can inform the favorable selection of partitions for running jobs. This potential is well understood as we see in the abundance of research studies that propose solutions for these tasks, including the work published in the last several years. These tasks are seemingly receptive to the Machine Learning (ML) solutions, considering that there is no shortage of training data where HPC centers over time run millions and millions of jobs. However, we study the existing research literature, as well as look for examples in the toolchains supported on the exemplar HPC facilities, and, surprisingly, do not find any practical solutions that are ready to be adopted. We interpret this as a manifestation of the shortage of UX/UI efforts that support HPC analytics and also as a sign that the research has not come to the consensus on solving these tasks. In this study, we aim to shed new light on the long-running task of job queue time prediction by exploring the utility of runtime predictions in improving prediction accuracy and, actually, predicting these two metrics together, in tandem. In other words, we show how runtime predictions become valuable input in the queue time modeling. We challenge the existing approaches to feature engineering for the queue time prediction and describe promising results we obtained for a large dataset of HPC jobs from a supercomputer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine Tool Data Analytics for Digital Twin and Machine Predictive Maintenance

The primary objective of this project is to improve machining process performance using in-process machining data from the machine tool controller and external sensors. Advances in the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) enable monitoring of machines using controller data. Examples of the data provided by a controller include execution status of the controller, part count, block of code being executed, door status, tool position, the spindle and axis load, etc. MTConnect and OPC-UA are the two common protocols for capturing machine information. In this collaboration, methods for retrieving the machine controller data from selected machine tool controls and making these data accessible in different subsystems (such as digital twins and machine maintenance portals, etc.) will be developed and tested. In addition, analytics to improve machining process performance (by increasing productivity and reducing downtime) will be developed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantifying Energetic and Entropic Pathways in Molecular Systems

When examining dynamics occurring at nonzero temperatures, both energy and entropy must be taken into account to describe activated barrier crossing events. Furthermore, good reaction coordinates need to be constructed to describe different metastable states and the transition mechanisms between them. Here we use a physics-based machine learning method called state predictive information bottleneck (SPIB) to find nonlinear reaction coordinates for three systems of varying complexity. SPIB is able to correctly predict an entropic bottleneck for an analytical flat-energy double-well system and identify the entropy- and energy-dominated pathways for an analytical four-well system. Lastly, for a simulation of benzoic acid permeation through a lipid bilayer, SPIB is able to discover the entropic and energetic barriers to the permeation process. Given these results, we thus establish that SPIB is a reasonable and robust method for finding the important entropy, energy, and enthalpy barriers in physical systems, which can then be used to enhance the understanding and sampling of different activated mechanisms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Robust qubit interactions mediated by photonic topological edge states

Here, we investigate the coupling of two spatially separated qubits via topologically protected edge states in a two-dimensional Hofstadter lattice. In this hybrid platform, the qubits are coupled to distinct edge sites of the lattice, enabling long-range interactions mediated by topological edge modes. We solve the full system Hamiltonian and analyze the resulting eigenstate structure to uncover the conditions under which coherent qubit interactions emerge. Our analysis reveals that the effective coupling is highly sensitive to the qubit placement, energy detuning, and the topological character of the edge spectrum. We obtain an analytical solution that goes beyond the perturbative regime, capturing the full interplay between the qubits and edge modes. These results provide a foundation for exploring information transport and many-body effects in engineered quantum systems where interactions are mediated by topological edge modes.

Chern insulators↗

Artificial Intelligence for Multiphysics Nuclear Design Optimization with Additive Manufacturing

The geometric flexibility of additively manufactured metals and ceramics generates a very large and open design space that requires advanced modeling and simulation tools for physics simulations and the rigorous definition of design problems. This effort deploys artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms to understand the design space, evaluate potential designs, and more efficiently generate optimized results. The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program is leveraging advances in several scientific areas—including materials, manufacturing, sensors and control systems, data analytics, and high-fidelity modeling and simulation—to accelerate the design, manufacturing, qualification, and deployment of advanced nuclear energy systems. Through a manufacturing-informed design approach, the TCR program seeks to integrate digital data for rapid nuclear innovation; accelerate the adoption of advances in manufacturing, materials, and computational sciences for nuclear applications; and dramatically reduce deployment costs and timelines for new nuclear reactor technologies. This report documents efforts under the TCR program to leverage advanced modeling and simulation techniques driven by AI/ML algorithms on high-performance computing (HPC) systems to yield more optimized TCR core designs. A multiphysics ML surrogate model was developed to run on the HPC architectures. The surrogate model is trained on high-fidelity simulation data of coupled neutronics and thermofluidics and is used to quickly evaluate thousands of candidate core designs in parallel, which drives the evolution of the cooling channel shapes to minimize temperature peaking and material stress. Outcomes from these activities provide design information and feedback into the core design efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Clean Energy Revolving Loan Funds: International Experience [Slides]

Tunisia’s Energy Transition Fund (FTE), created in 2013, was established to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy projects in the public and private sectors. To overcome financing challenges related to the energy transition, Tunisia’s National Agency for Energy Conservation (ANME) seeks both to strengthen available financial resources and to develop innovative financing structures. Revolving Loan Funds (RLFs) are one such innovative financing structure, used by countries around the world to foster the development of distributed clean energy projects. This report aims to inform policy makers and various stakeholders on the opportunity to design an RLF by drawing on successful experiences from other countries. Specifically, this report provides analytical support for discussions with ANME and its partners to develop an RLF in the context of Tunisia. It outlines the 12 essential steps for establishing a RLF and includes detailed case studies demonstrating successful RLF implementation across various contexts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Physics-Informed and Data-Driven Prediction of Residual Stress in Three-Dimensional Machining

Efficient and reliable prediction of machining-induced residual stress (RS) is a key requirement for truly integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Currently available process modeling approaches, including empirical, analytical, and numerical methodologies lack predictive power and require substantial calibration and validation data. Moreover, most model-based approaches consider only two-dimensional (2D) (i.e., orthogonal), cutting processes. Meanwhile, industrial processes such as milling, turning, and drilling are inherently three-dimensional (3D). The present work attempts to bridge the gap between 2D and 3D through careful consideration of the process physics, including geometric, kinematic, and size-effect constraints to realize robust prediction of how RS develops in 3D machining. Using a novel in-situ experimental technique and digital image correlation (DIC) to determine equivalent Hertzian contact widths, contact pressures, and friction coefficients, the proposed methodology leverages a discretized conversion algorithm that includes multi-pass shakedown effects. This paper presents a semi-analytical model to predict machining-induced RS in 3D turning operations, which are used representatively for 3D processes more generally. Rather than follow a ‘brute force’ 3D FEM approach or conduct countless experiments to train a purely data-driven machine learning algorithm, the proposed approach builds on previous 2D modeling work. Through careful consideration of the process physics, including complex geometry/kinematic considerations of 3D turning, the authors demonstrated an experimentally calibrated approach, as well as validation based on published RS data. Model predictions and previously published measurement data of RS depth profiles for turning of Inconel 718 were compared for a range of process parameters. Correlation between the proposed 3D model and validation data was found to be within the margin of experimental error for most conditions. The proposed model appears to capture the overall behavior of 3D RS depth profiles with acceptable accuracy, particularly the key metrics of near-surface stress, peak stress magnitude and location, as well as overall stress profile depth. This report presents a physics-informed, data-driven approach for efficient calibration of a 2D model for machining-induced RS through DIC analysis of in-situ characterized subsurface displacement fields.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Paradigm for universal quantum information processing with integrated acousto-optic frequency beamsplitters

Frequency-bin encoding offers tremendous potential in quantum photonic information processing, in which a single waveguide can support hundreds of lightpaths in a naturally phase-stable fashion. This stability, however, comes at a cost: arbitrary unitary operations can be realized by cascaded electro-optic phase modulators and pulse shapers, but require nontrivial numerical optimization for design and have thus far been limited to discrete tabletop components. In this article, we propose, formalize, and computationally evaluate a new paradigm for universal frequency-bin quantum information processing using acousto-optic scattering processes between distinct transverse modes. We show that controllable phase matching in intermodal processes enables 2 × 2 frequency beamsplitters and transverse-mode-dependent phase shifters, which together comprise cascadable FRequency-transverse-mODe Operations (FRODOs) that can synthesize any unitary via analytical decomposition procedures. Modeling the performance of both random gates and discrete Fourier transforms, we demonstrate the feasibility of high-fidelity quantum operations with existing integrated photonics technology, highlighting prospects of parallelizable operations achieving 100% bandwidth utilization. Our approach is realizable with CMOS technology, opening the door to scalable on-chip quantum information processing in the frequency domain.

Lukens, Joseph M. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, I↗

Automated Data Review of Analytical Laboratory Results at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20299

Newport News Nuclear BWXT-Los Alamos, LLC (N3B) collects samples in support of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) Los Alamos Legacy Cleanup Contract (LLCC). N3B receives and reviews over 1.6 million sample data points annually in support of various ongoing environmental monitoring and remediation projects of the LLCC. N3B must demonstrate and document that reported external analytical laboratory data produced for the LLCC are of sufficient quality to fulfill their intended purpose and to support defensible decision making as described in EPA QA/G4 Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives Process 1994. In 2018, N3B assumed management of the LLCC along with the Environmental Information Management (EIM) database that contains all historical and current environmental data associated with the LLCC. The entire EIM database is shared between N3B, Triad National Security, LLC (Triad), and New Mexico Environment Department (NMED). These three parties jointly manage the database, its configuration, and changes / updates. All environmental data that are entered into EIM are updated and available, on a daily basis, in the linked public database Intellus New Mexico (Intellus). The quality and defensibility of the environmental data generated from sampling activities is a key component of an effective remediation process. Providing quality data is accomplished through a data assessment process that includes examination, verification, and validation. Examination is the assessment of completeness of the deliverables, identification of any reporting errors, and determining the usability of the data based on the laboratory's evaluation of its data as described in the case narrative received with the data. Verification consists of an evaluation of the Electronic Data Deliverables (EDD) data report to determine the extent to which the external analytical laboratories met method and contract-specific quality control and reporting requirements. Validation consists of determining the data quality and the extent to which the external analytical laboratories accurately and completely reported all sample and quality control results and satisfied all contract requirements. EIM contains an automatic Data Validation Module which performs automated data review (DVM ADR). DVM ADR is a tool to assist in the validation process. When DVM ADR is used in conjunction with manual examination of sample data packages, the combination of the two will meet and exceed the requirements of verification. N3B recognized an opportunity for process improvement, focusing on DVM ADR configuration and enhancements in EIM. Testing EIM's configuration provided proof of the DVM ADR's capabilities and flexibility to accurately perform routine data checks based on analytical methods and regulatory requirements. In addition, the DVM ADR module was improved through enhancements for all analytes, particularly upgrades for radiochemistry data. Extensive testing of the DVM ADR module occurred using EDDs from actual laboratory analyses on the EIM testing site. During this process, N3B manipulated EDD information to verify that the actual outcomes matched the expected outcomes. The results of this testing were shared with the database architects, and configuration improvements were identified to address these results. During this process, N3B identified that the radiochemical DVM ADR capabilities were underutilized, and so enhanced the DVM ADR functionality with respect to radioanalytical assessment. N3B environmental data uploads to Intellus on a daily basis from EIM, once the analytical data undergoes examination and verification. As such, it is important to have a high level of confidence in the quality and defensibility of the data. The process of manual examination, along with the DVM ADR, in conjunction with full validation of a percentage the data specified through the Data Quality Objectives greatly increases efficiency of data review and confidence level of the quality of the data, and gives the project managers, governmental offices, and the public expedited access to high-quality data. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗