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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Reliable, Fault-Tolerant Autonomous Lunar Habitats with High-Performance Spaceflight Computing

The lunar surface presents unfavorable constraints and harsh living conditions. To address these challenges, autonomous habitats will require complex integrated systems that combine advanced software, high-performance hardware, and cutting-edge sensors to ensure sustainability, safety, and operational efficiency. Consequently, maintaining a sustainable presence on the Moon requires reliable infrastructure and efficient development, precise monitoring, and utilization of resources within a lunar installation. These elements are essential not only to ensure that lunar settlement can be long-term, self-sustaining, and resource-efficient, but also to serve as a foundation for future missions and eventual human habitation on Mars. Humans are not native to the Moon; therefore, our survival and ability to thrive will depend on autonomous systems that can foster safety and resilience through high-availability architectures, graceful degradation, and highly fault-tolerant spaceflight hardware capable of continuing operation during failures. This requires advanced human-rated distributed systems architectures with specialized electronics, scalable capabilities, and an integrated design approach. Unlike current practices focused on short-term missions and regularly maintained components, permanent lunar compute systems must be designed for extended operations beyond mission durations. This paper explores the necessity of transitioning toward fault- tolerant, highly autonomous hardware systems designed for multi-year missions. It also identifies critical subsystems that require high levels of autonomy, supported by radiation-hardened processors and extreme thermal loads, which are essential to mitigate long-term degradation and ensure sustainable lunar habitation. Finally, the paper aligns with NASA’s identified Civil Space Shortfalls, particularly in high-performance onboard computing, advanced data acquisition, extreme-environment avionics, radiation monitoring and countermeasures, and autonomous health management. It proposes NASA’s new High-Performance Spaceflight Computing (HPSC) processor as a turnkey solution, delivering 100 times the performance-per-watt of legacy rad-hard CPUs and enabling onboard AI, edge computing, and fault-tolerant features essential for sustained lunar autonomy and beyond.

Sarkis S Mikaelian↗

NASA NTRS2002

Enhancing Human Health Using Space Imagery: Summary of Research

The International Space University (ISU) 2002 Summer Session was conducted in Pomona, California, June 29-August 30, 2002. Ninety-nine professionals and students from thirty-one countries attended the Summer Session. More than half of these students participated in the Student Research Design Project entitled, "HI-STAR: Health Improvements through Space Technologies and Resources." ISU's interdisciplinary Student Research Design Projects are intended to have great educational value for the participants and, at the same time, to result in a product that will be useful to the field. The HI-STAR project was a success on both counts. The mission of the ISU students' effort on HI-STAR was to develop and promote a global strategy to help combat malaria using space technology. Like the tiny yet powerful mosquito, HI-STAR is a small program that aspires to make a difference. Timely detection of malaria danger zones is essential to help health authorities and policy makers make decisions about how to manage limited resources for combating malaria. In 2001, the technical support network for prevention and control of malaria epidemics published a study called "Malaria Early Warning Systems: Concepts, Indicators and Partners." This study, funded by Roll Back Malaria, a World Health Organization initiative, offered a framework for a monitoring and early warning system. HI-STAR seeks to build on this proposal and enhance the space elements of the suggested framework. Malaria disease dynamics and distributions are related to environmental variables. From space, environmental conditions that support the growth of mosquito populations can be monitored, Malaria-specific information can be gathered from satellite-borne remote sensing instruments and ground-based sensors. This information can be integrated via geographic information systems (GIS) into a Malaria Information System (MIS) that can provide assessment analyses and risk maps as output. HI-STAR defines and suggests the development of an active MIS as a low-cost tool to help organizations plan their efforts to fight malaria.

Finarelli, Margaret G.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and Assessment of Deployed Sensors and Technologies Supporting Molten Salt Loop Operations

During FY24, Argonne conducted a variety of activities to develop and assess new monitoring and control technologies towards enabling long-duration operations of molten salt reactor systems. The first objective of the work completed this year was to deploy technologies capable of reliably and rapidly monitoring the operational health of a molten salt loop. To achieve this, the project focused on specific tasks, including: (1) electroanalytical technique development for use in deployed sensors, and (2) operations of sensors on the Facility to Alleviate Salt Technology Risks (FASTR) loop at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The second objective of the work this year focused on creating a pumped actinide flow loop to enable long-duration salt chemistry and corrosion studies using uranium-bearing fuel salts. Toward that end, we designed and procured a loop capable of being installed into a radiological glovebox at Argonne. A corrosion control system was also designed for integration into this loop. These combined systems will enable the feasibility of corrosion control and management systems to be investigated with complex chloride fuel salt mixtures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Damage Characterization Using the Extended Finite Element Method for Structural Health Management

The development of validated multidisciplinary Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) tools, technologies, and techniques to enable detection, diagnosis, prognosis, and mitigation in the presence of adverse conditions during flight will provide effective solutions to deal with safety related challenges facing next generation aircraft. The adverse conditions include loss of control caused by environmental factors, actuator and sensor faults or failures, and damage conditions. A major concern in these structures is the growth of undetected damage/cracks due to fatigue and low velocity foreign impact that can reach a critical size during flight, resulting in loss of control of the aircraft. Hence, development of efficient methodologies to determine the presence, location, and severity of damage/cracks in critical structural components is highly important in developing efficient structural health management systems.

Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan↗

NASA NTRS2012

Exploration Medical System Demonstration (EMSD) Project

The Exploration Medical System Demonstration (EMSD) is a project under the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element managed by the Human Research Program (HRP). The vision for the EMSD is to utilize ISS as a test bed to show that several medical technologies needed for an exploration mission and medical informatics tools for managing evidence and decision making can be integrated into a single system and used by the on-orbit crew in an efficient and meaningful manner. Objectives: a) Reduce and even possibly eliminate the time required for on-orbit crew and ground personnel (which include Surgeon, Biomedical Engineer (BME) Flight Controller, and Medical Operations Data Specialist) to access and move medical data from one application to another. b) Demonstrate that the on-orbit crew has the ability to access medical data/information using an intuitive and crew-friendly software solution to assist/aid in the treatment of a medical condition. c) Develop a common data management framework and architecture that can be ubiquitously used to automate repetitive data collection, management, and communications tasks for all crew health and life sciences activities.

Chin, Duane↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA Wearable Technology CLUSTER 2013-2014 Report

Wearable technology has the potential to revolutionize the way humans interact with one another, with information, and with the electronic systems that surround them. This change can already be seen in the dramatic increase in the availability and use of wearable health and activity monitors. These devices continuously monitor the wearer using on-‐body sensors and wireless communication. They provide feedback that can be used to improve physical health and performance. Smart watches and head mounted displays are also receiving a great deal of commercial attention, providing immediate access to information via graphical displays, as well as additional sensing features. For the purposes of the Wearable Technology CLUSTER, wearable technology is broadly defined as any electronic sensing, human interfaces, computing, or communication that is mounted on the body. Current commercially available wearable devices primarily house electronics in rigid packaging to provide protection from flexing, moisture, and other contaminants. NASA mentors are interested in this approach, but are also interested in direct integration of electronics into clothing to enable more comfortable systems. For human spaceflight, wearable technology holds a great deal of promise for significantly improving safety, efficiency, autonomy, and research capacity for the crew in space and support personnel on the ground. Specific capabilities of interest include: Continuous biomedical monitoring for research and detection of health problems. Environmental monitoring for individual exposure assessments and alarms. Activity monitoring for responsive robotics and environments. Multi-modal caution and warning using tactile, auditory, and visual alarms. Wireless, hands-free, on-demand voice communication. Mobile, on-demand access to space vehicle and robotic displays and controls. Many technical challenges must be overcome to realize these wearable technology applications. For example, to make a wearable device that is both functional and comfortable for long duration wear, developers must strive to reduce electronic mass and volume while also addressing constraints imposed by the body attachment method. Depending on the application, the device must be placed in a location that the user can see and reach, and that provides the appropriate access to air and the wearer's skin. Limited power is available from body-‐worn batteries and heat must be managed to prevent discomfort. If the clothing is to be washed, there are additional durability and washability hurdles that traditional electronics are not designed to address. Finally, each specific capability has unique technical challenges that will likely require unique solutions. In addition to the technical challenges, development of wearable devices is made more difficult by the diversity of skills required and the historic lack of collaboration across domains. Wearable technology development requires expertise in textiles engineering, apparel design, software and computer engineering, electronic design and manufacturing, human factors engineering, and application-‐specific fields such as acoustics, medical devices, and sensing. Knowledge from each of these domains must be integrated to create functional and comfortable devices. For this reason, the diversity of knowledge and experience represented in the Wearable Technology is critical to overcoming the fundamental challenges in the field.

Simon, Cory↗

NASA NTRS1997

Advanced Technologies for Space Life Science Payloads on the International Space Station

SENSORS 2000! (S2K!) is a specialized, high-performance work group organized to provide advanced engineering and technology support for NASA's Life Sciences spaceflight and ground-based research and development programs. In support of these objectives, S2K! manages NASA's Advanced Technology Development Program for Biosensor and Biotelemetry Systems (ATD-B), with particular emphasis on technologies suitable for Gravitational Biology, Human Health and Performance, and Information Technology and Systems Management. A concurrent objective is to apply and transition ATD-B developed technologies to external, non-NASA humanitarian (medical, clinical, surgical, and emergency) situations and to stimulate partnering and leveraging with other government agencies, academia, and the commercial/industrial sectors. A phased long-term program has been implemented to support science disciplines and programs requiring specific biosensor (i.e., biopotential, biophysical, biochemical, and biological) measurements from humans, animals (mainly primates and rodents), and cells under controlled laboratory and simulated microgravity situations. In addition to the technology programs described above, NASA's Life and Microgravity Sciences and Applications Office has initiated a Technology Infusion process to identify and coordinate the utilization and integration of advanced technologies into its International Space Station Facilities. This project has recently identified a series of technologies, tasks, and products which, if implemented, would significantly increase the science return, decrease costs, and provide improved technological capability. This presentation will review the programs described above and discuss opportunities for collaboration, leveraging, and partnering with NASA.

Hines, John W.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Damage Characterization Method for Structural Health Management Using Reduced Number of Sensor Inputs

The development of validated multidisciplinary Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) tools, technologies, and techniques to enable detection, diagnosis, prognosis, and mitigation in the presence of adverse conditions during flight will provide effective solutions to deal with safety related challenges facing next generation aircraft. The adverse conditions include loss of control caused by environmental factors, actuator and sensor faults or failures, and damage conditions. A major concern in these structures is the growth of undetected damage (cracks) due to fatigue and low velocity foreign impacts that can reach a critical size during flight, resulting in loss of control of the aircraft. Hence, development of efficient methodologies to determine the presence, location, and severity of damage in critical structural components is highly important in developing efficient structural health management systems.

Krishnamurthy, T.↗

NASA NTRS2014

America's Next Great Ship: Space Launch System Core Stage Transitioning from Design to Manufacturing

The Space Launch System (SLS) Program is essential to achieving the Nation's and NASA's goal of human exploration and scientific investigation of the solar system. As a multi-element program with emphasis on safety, affordability, and sustainability, SLS is becoming America's next great ship of exploration. The SLS Core Stage includes avionics, main propulsion system, pressure vessels, thrust vector control, and structures. Boeing manufactures and assembles the SLS core stage at the Michoud Assembly Facility (MAF) in New Orleans, LA, a historical production center for Saturn V and Space Shuttle programs. As the transition from design to manufacturing progresses, the importance of a well-executed manufacturing, assembly, and operation (MA&O) plan is crucial to meeting performance objectives. Boeing employs classic techniques such as critical path analysis and facility requirements definition as well as innovative approaches such as Constraint Based Scheduling (CBS) and Cirtical Chain Project Management (CCPM) theory to provide a comprehensive suite of project management tools to manage the health of the baseline plan on both a macro (overall project) and micro level (factory areas). These tools coordinate data from multiple business systems and provide a robust network to support Material & Capacity Requirements Planning (MRP/CRP) and priorities. Coupled with these tools and a highly skilled workforce, Boeing is orchestrating the parallel buildup of five major sub assemblies throughout the factory. Boeing and NASA are transforming MAF to host state of the art processes, equipment and tooling, the most prominent of which is the Vertical Assembly Center (VAC), the largest weld tool in the world. In concert, a global supply chain is delivering a range of structural elements and component parts necessary to enable an on-time delivery of the integrated Core Stage. SLS is on plan to launch humanity into the next phase of space exploration.

Birkenstock, Benjamin↗

NASA NTRS1998

Autonomous Satellite Command and Control Through the World Wide Web

The Automated Space System Experimental Testbed (ASSET) system is a simple yet comprehensive real-world operations network being developed. Phase 3 of the ASSET Project was January-December 1997 and is the subject of this report. This phase permitted SSDL and its project partners to expand the ASSET system in a variety of ways. These added capabilities included the advancement of ground station capabilities, the adaptation of spacecraft on-board software, and the expansion of capabilities of the ASSET management algorithms. Specific goals of Phase 3 were: (1) Extend Web-based goal-level commanding for both the payload PI and the spacecraft engineer. (2) Support prioritized handling of multiple (PIs) Principle Investigators as well as associated payload experimenters. (3) Expand the number and types of experiments supported by the ASSET system and its associated spacecraft. (4) Implement more advanced resource management, modeling and fault management capabilities that integrate the space and ground segments of the space system hardware. (5) Implement a beacon monitoring test. (6) Implement an experimental blackboard controller for space system management. (7) Further define typical ground station developments required for Internet-based remote control and for full system automation of the PI-to-spacecraft link. Each of those goals are examined. Significant sections of this report were also published as a conference paper. Several publications produced in support of this grant are included as attachments. Titles include: 1) Experimental Initiatives in Space System Operations; 2) The ASSET Client Interface: Balancing High Level Specification with Low Level Control; 3) Specifying Spacecraft Operations At The Product/Service Level; 4) The Design of a Highly Configurable, Reusable Operating System for Testbed Satellites; 5) Automated Health Operations For The Sapphire Spacecraft; 6) Engineering Data Summaries for Space Missions; and 7) Experiments In Automated Health Assessment And Notification For The Sapphire Microsatellite.

Cantwell, Brian↗

NASA NTRS1988

Integrated control and health management. Orbit transfer rocket engine technology program

To insure controllability of the baseline design for a 7500 pound thrust, 10:1 throttleable, dual expanded cycle, Hydrogen-Oxygen, orbit transfer rocket engine, an Integrated Controls and Health Monitoring concept was developed. This included: (1) Dynamic engine simulations using a TUTSIM derived computer code; (2) analysis of various control methods; (3) Failure Modes Analysis to identify critical sensors; (4) Survey of applicable sensors technology; and, (5) Study of Health Monitoring philosophies. The engine design was found to be controllable over the full throttling range by using 13 valves, including an oxygen turbine bypass valve to control mixture ratio, and a hydrogen turbine bypass valve, used in conjunction with the oxygen bypass to control thrust. Classic feedback control methods are proposed along with specific requirements for valves, sensors, and the controller. Expanding on the control system, a Health Monitoring system is proposed including suggested computing methods and the following recommended sensors: (1) Fiber optic and silicon bearing deflectometers; (2) Capacitive shaft displacement sensors; and (3) Hot spot thermocouple arrays. Further work is needed to refine and verify the dynamic simulations and control algorithms, to advance sensor capabilities, and to develop the Health Monitoring computational methods.

Holzmann, Wilfried A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the ForWarn System for Monitoring of Forest Disturbances in the Conterminous United States

This presentation discusses MODIS vegetation phenology products used in the ForWarn Early Warning System (EWS) tool for near real time regional forest disturbance detection and surveillance at regional to national scales. The ForWarn EWS is being developed by the USDA Forest Service NASA, ORNL, and USGS to aid federal and state forest health management activities. ForWarn employs multiple historical land surface phenology products that are derived from MODIS MOD13 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. The latter is temporally processed into phenology products with the Time Series Product Tool (TSPT) and the Phenological Parameter Estimation Tool (PPET) software produced at NASA Stennis Space Center. TSPT is used to effectively noise reduce, fuse, and void interpolate MODIS NDVI data. PPET employs TSPT-processed NDVI time series data as an input, outputting multiple vegetation phenology products at a 232 meter resolution for 2000 to 2011, including NDVI magnitude and day of year products for seven key points along the growing season (peak of growing season and the minima, 20%, and 80% of the peak NDVI for both the left and right side of growing season), cumulative NDVI integral products for the most active part of the growing season and sequentially across the growing season at 8 day intervals, and maximum value NDVI products composited at 24 day intervals in which each product date has 8 days of overlap between the previous and following product dates. MODIS NDVI phenology products are also used to compute nationwide NRT forest change products refreshed every 8 days. These include percent change in forest NDVI products that compare the current NDVI from USGS eMODIS products to historical MODIS MOD13 NDVI. For each date, three forest change products are produced using three different maximum value NDVI baselines (from the previous year, three previous years, and all previous years). All change products are output with a rainbow color table in which forests with the most severe NDVI decreases are assigned hot colors (yellow to red) and forests with prominent NDVI increases are assigned cold colors (blue tones). All mentioned products have been integrated as data layers into ForWarn s geospatial data viewer known as the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV). The latter is used to view and assess the context of the mentioned forest change products with respect to ancillary data layers, such as land cover, elevation, hydrologic features, climatic data, storm data, aerial disturbance surveys, fire data, and land ownership. The FCAV also includes a temporal NDVI profiler for viewing phenological change in multi-year NDVI associated with known or suspected regionally apparent forest disturbances (e.g., from fire and insects). ForWarn forest change products have been used to detect, track, and assess several biotic and abiotic regional forest disturbance events across the country, including ephemeral and longer lasting damage from storms, drought, and insects. Such change products are most effective for viewing severe disturbances affecting multiple MODIS pixels. MODIS vegetation phenology products contribute vital current information on forest conditions to the ForWarn system and this role is expected to grow as these products are refined and derivative products are added.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for dissemination to coastal resource managers and stakeholders.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Expanding Repository Data Available For Sharing and Knowledge Discovery

Some of the hardest space biology and space health challenges require data-intensive, bioinformatic, meta-analytical, and computer-assisted research approaches. These challenges include examining interdisciplinary space life science research across experiments and across interacting spaceflight hazards (radiation, altered gravity, confinement, hostile-closed environments, distance-duration from Earth). The approaches to confront these challenges involve mining multiple datasets simultaneously from various hierarchical organizations of biological complexity, all while concurrently evaluating how experimental design factors affect endpoints of standard assays. To enable this field, it is essential that principal investigators (PIs) submit data in a structure so it can be maximally re-used. The purpose of the NASA Ames Life Sciences Data Archive (ALSDA) is to collect, curate, and make publicly available all non-human space-relevant biological data. ALSDA must also ensure data are open-access, and maximally findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). The scope of ALSDA data collected and submitted by PIs include subject and study design metadata, assay metadata parameters, raw and processed assay data, assay imagery/video, and subject-experienced mission data telemetry (radiation, temperature, humidity, acoustics, vibrations, etc.). ALSDA recently integrated into a collaborative group of Open Science projects to facilitate a suite of new tools and workflows that will improve data submission, accessibility, and reusability by implementing digital data submission agreements, and adopting the data management system originally developed by NASA GeneLab. ALSDA intends to bring current biological repository data and all future collected data into this new scientific data reuse reality. This new suite of tools will enable ALSDA to deploy a science curation system using scientific assay configurations for the data submission portal. It will capture essential assay parameters according to established standards in each sub-field within biology. The submission portal expedites data collection by enhancing ease of PI data submission, providing a user interface and specificity for which data is to be submitted. Data submissions can be brought into cutting-edge informatic analysis portals to enable mining of physiological, behavioral, biochemical, and imaging datasets in conjunction with ‘omics-level datasets. As ALSDA datasets are submitted, curated, and published (e.g., micro-computed tomography, histology, pulse oximetry, serum metabolites, magnetic resonance imaging, intraocular pressure, novel object recognition, etc.), the merging together of spaceflight data along this multi-hierarchical complexity of biology will enable informatics and data-intensive approaches resulting in knowledge discoveries across missions, space hazards, and biological disciplines.

Biology↗

NASA NTRS2011

Integration and Cooperation in the Next Golden Age of Human Space Flight Data Repositories: Tools for Retrospective Analysis and Future Planning

As NASA transitions from the Space Shuttle era into the next phase of space exploration, the need to ensure the capture, analysis, and application of its research and medical data is of greater urgency than at any other previous time. In this era of limited resources and challenging schedules, the Human Research Program (HRP) based at NASA s Johnson Space Center (JSC) recognizes the need to extract the greatest possible amount of information from the data already captured, as well as focus current and future research funding on addressing the HRP goal to provide human health and performance countermeasures, knowledge, technologies, and tools to enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration. To this end, the Science Management Office and the Medical Informatics and Health Care Systems Branch within the HRP and the Space Medicine Division have been working to make both research data and clinical data more accessible to the user community. The Life Sciences Data Archive (LSDA), the research repository housing data and information regarding the physiologic effects of microgravity, and the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health Repository (LSAH-R), the clinical repository housing astronaut data, have joined forces to achieve this goal. The task of both repositories is to acquire, preserve, and distribute data and information both within the NASA community and to the science community at large. This is accomplished via the LSDA s public website (http://lsda.jsc.nasa.gov), which allows access to experiment descriptions including hardware, datasets, key personnel, mission descriptions and a mechanism for researchers to request additional data, research and clinical, that is not accessible from the public website. This will result in making the work of NASA and its partners available to the wider sciences community, both domestic and international. The desired outcome is the use of these data for knowledge discovery, retrospective analysis, and planning of future research studies.

Thomas, D.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Systemic Risk

Systemic risk is the name given to impacts that spread within and across systems and sectors (e.g. ecosystems, health, infrastructure and the food sector) via the movements of people, goods, capital and information within and across boundaries (e.g. regions, countries and continents). The spread of these impacts can lead to potentially existential consequences and system collapse across a range of time horizons. Globalization contributes to systemic risk affecting people worldwide. The impacts of climate change or COVID-19 show how the challenges of addressing systemic risk go beyond conventional risk management and governance. Critical system interdependencies, amplified by underlying vulnerabilities, highlight that there is a growing need to better understand cascading impacts, systemic risks and the possible political (governance) and societal responses. This includes improving our understanding of the root causes of systemic risk, both biophysical and socio-economic, and related information needs. Addressing contemporary challenges in terms of systemic risk requires integrating different systems perspectives and fostering system thinking, while implementing key intergovernmental agendas, such as the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals.

systemic risk↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

Corbetta, M.↗