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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23

An Architecture for Intelligent Systems Based on Smart Sensors

Based on requirements for a next-generation rocket test facility, elements of a prototype Intelligent Rocket Test Facility (IRTF) have been implemented. A key component is distributed smart sensor elements integrated using a knowledgeware environment. One of the specific goals is to imbue sensors with the intelligence needed to perform self diagnosis of health and to participate in a hierarchy of health determination at sensor, process, and system levels. The preliminary results provide the basis for future advanced development and validation using rocket test stand facilities at Stennis Space Center (SSC). We have identified issues important to further development of health-enabled networks, which should be of interest to others working with smart sensors and intelligent health management systems.

Schmalzel, John↗

Piloted Evaluation of a Fault Recovery System for an Aircraft with Distributed Electric Propulsion

Electrified aircraft powertrains contain multiple tightly coupled subsystems, making them much more complex than traditional aircraft propulsion systems, both in terms of integration and control. Electrification enables aircraft to have multiple distributed thrust-producing fans that the flight control system can utilize for enhanced maneuverability, further increasing the control complexity. The SUbsonic Single Aft eNgine (SUSAN) Electrofan is a NASA concept aircraft that leverages this technology. SUSAN is a series/parallel partial hybrid electric single-aisle transport aircraft that takes advantage of its electrified powertrain to provide fuel burn and emissions benefits when compared to the state-of-the-art. Achieving these benefits requires an appropriately designed control architecture that coordinates the various powertrain and flight control subsystems. As such, the SUSAN aircraft is designed with a high level of automation, allowing it to properly manage coupled subsystems and react rapidly to failures and anomalies. To do this effectively, algorithms that perform component health management, fault detection, isolation, and accommodation, and continuous optimization, must be developed, tested, validated, and implemented. This paper describes a piloted evaluation of such an algorithm in scenarios with multiple fan failures, performed in a flight simulator, demonstrating failure recovery and continued safe operation up to the limits of the powertrain. These scenarios are subsequently related to certification requirements.

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion↗

Piloted Evaluation of a Fault Recovery System for an Aircraft with Distributed Electric Propulsion

Electrified aircraft powertrains contain multiple tightly coupled subsystems, making them much more complex than traditional aircraft propulsion systems, both in terms of integration and control. Electrification enables aircraft to have multiple distributed thrust-producing fans that the flight control system can utilize for enhanced maneuverability, further increasing the control complexity. The SUbsonic Single Aft eNgine (SUSAN) Electrofan is a NASA concept aircraft that leverages this technology. SUSAN is a series/parallel partial hybrid electric single-aisle transport aircraft that takes advantage of its electrified powertrain to provide fuel burn and emissions benefits when compared to the state-of-the-art. Achieving these benefits requires an appropriately designed control architecture that coordinates the various powertrain and flight control subsystems. As such, the SUSAN aircraft is designed with a high level of automation, allowing it to properly manage coupled subsystems and react rapidly to failures and anomalies. To do this effectively, algorithms that perform component health management, fault detection, isolation, and accommodation, and continuous optimization, must be developed, tested, validated, and implemented. This paper describes a piloted evaluation of such an algorithm in scenarios with multiple fan failures, performed in a flight simulator, demonstrating failure recovery and continued safe operation up to the limits of the powertrain. These scenarios are subsequently related to certification requirements.

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion↗

Piloted Evaluation of a Fault Recovery System for an Aircraft with Distributed Electric Propulsion

Electrified aircraft powertrains contain multiple tightly coupled subsystems, making them much more complex than traditional aircraft propulsion systems, both in terms of integration and control. Electrification enables aircraft to have multiple distributed thrust-producing fans that the flight control system can utilize for enhanced maneuverability, further increasing the control complexity. The SUbsonic Single Aft eNgine (SUSAN) Electrofan is a NASA concept aircraft that leverages this technology. SUSAN is a series/parallel partial hybrid electric single-aisle transport aircraft that takes advantage of its electrified powertrain to provide fuel burn and emissions benefits when compared to the state-of-the-art. Achieving these benefits requires an appropriately designed control architecture that coordinates the various powertrain and flight control subsystems. As such, the SUSAN aircraft is designed with a high level of automation, allowing it to properly manage coupled subsystems and react rapidly to failures and anomalies. To do this effectively, algorithms that perform component health management, fault detection, isolation, and accommodation, and continuous optimization, must be developed, tested, validated, and implemented. This paper describes a piloted evaluation of such an algorithm in scenarios with multiple fan failures, performed in a flight simulator, demonstrating failure recovery and continued safe operation up to the limits of the powertrain. These scenarios are subsequently related to certification requirements.

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion↗

High fidelity ground deposition measurement with robots after explosive radiological dispersion

A team of scientists from the Remote Sensing Laboratory at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, has assembled a remote-controlled robot to field a few sodium iodide scintillators of different size and shape 18″ above ground for measurement of ground deposition of gamma-emitting particles after an explosion of a radiological dispersal device. This system uses a high-precision differential GPS device with submeter accuracy for radiation mapping. The system is most useful in characterizing large-area contamination and detecting gamma radioactivity in invisible, submicron particulate debris deposited on the ground at surface level or embedded in subsurface up to 3″ deep. The system was assembled as part of a larger effort to integrate advanced radiological detection devices into autonomous or remote-controlled robotic systems to eliminate or minimize the need for emergency responders to enter areas that pose significant health and safety risks to humans following a major radiological incident or accident. Research into autonomous algorithms is required to develop automated robotic systems for radiological survey and characterization activities in highly contaminated areas. The scope of this project also includes developing communications pathways and supporting infrastructure capabilities for different types of robotic technologies. The expected result is an advanced autonomous robotic system with integrated radiation detection electronics that allows emergency response personnel to view data remotely and in real time for radiological emergency response and consequence management purposes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Smart Silicon Carbide Power Module With Pulse Width Modulation Over Wi-Fi and Wireless Power Transfer-Enabled Gate Driver, Featuring Onboard State of Health Estimator and High-Voltage Scaling Capabilities

A wide range of utility applications require controllable switches with features such as high-voltage blocking and high-current carrying capacity, especially at high pulse width modulation (PWM) frequency. Low- and medium-voltage utility applications such as motor drives and flexible AC transmission systems as well as solid state transformers could also benefit from a low-cost high-voltage switching module. Wide-bandgap semiconductors such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETs) are considered to be the present and next-generation device choices, although they have limitations. For relatively high-voltage applications with demanding thermal management, SiC is still the only choice, and GaN dominates the low-voltage regime. This manuscript proposes a new half-bridge power MOSFET module that is suitable for conventional H-bridge of multilevel configurations used in high-voltage applications. Constructed from bare SiC dies, this half-bridge module takes advantage of (1) optimized MOSFET placement inside the module, (2) customized heat exchanger, manifold, and cooling, (3) integrated gate driver module with pulse width modulation (PWM) over wi-fi to eliminate the need for low-voltage signals, (4) wireless power transfer (WPT)-enabled gate driver and other ancillary circuits, (5) and the option to incorporate an onboard state-of-health (SOH) estimator module. The entire architecture has been designed and built at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, CO.

Ga2O3 devices↗

Special Analyses for the Hanford Integrated Disposal Facility Performance Assessment - 20102

In 2014, the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of River Protection and its contractors began to develop a performance assessment for the near-surface disposal of low-level and mixed low-level waste at the Hanford Site's Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF). The IDF is a doubly-lined landfill that was constructed between 2004 and 2006 to be the disposal facility for the vitrified low-activity waste that will be produced at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). IDF is also expected to receive solid secondary waste produced at the WTP and other solid wastes from site activities. The IDF has been in a preoperational state awaiting authorization from DOE and a RCRA permit modification from the State of Washington Department of Ecology to receive waste. Both the Disposal Authorization Statement and permit modification require a performance assessment demonstrating that the system of engineered and natural features will limit releases of radionuclides and hazardous chemicals from the IDF and be protective of human health and the environment. The simulated duration is 10,000 years. Based on the analyses presented in the 2017 Integrated Disposal Facility Performance Assessment, DOE issued a conditional Operating Disposal Authorization Statement for the IDF in June 2018. The long-term performance of the IDF to be protective of human health and the environment was evaluated under the requirements of DOE Order 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management. Computer simulations were performed to evaluate whether or not the IDF would comply with DOE requirements. In the time that has passed since the performance assessment was approved by DOE, new information has been discovered that had not been considered in the performance assessment. Since this new information has not been evaluated, the potential impact of the changes have not been taken into consideration in DoE's disposal authorization. DOE and its contractors follow a change control process to screen and, when necessary, evaluate new information that could potentially impact the conclusions of the completed performance assessment. This paper will describe the change control process and provide two examples of evaluations performed following the change control process. The first example evaluates a new waste form for liquid secondary waste that was not evaluated in the performance assessment. In the performance assessment, liquid secondary waste was assumed to be solidified with grout. A new recommendation to dispose of the liquid secondary waste after drying it to a powder was evaluated. The second example evaluates inventory implications from changes to the flow sheet that estimates the feed composition to the low-activity waste vitrification facility. The changes result in higher strontium concentrations in the vitrified waste stream. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Multidecadal Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program assessing human impacts on aquatic ecosystems within the Oak Ridge Reservation in eastern Tennessee, USA

Human activities can be powerful drivers of ecosystem change within catchments. While most long-term catchment studies have been conducted at pristine sites, such studies are less common from sites more impacted by human activity. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program (BMAP) was developed in the mid-1980s to (1) assess compliance with environmental regulations, (2) identify causes of adverse ecological impacts, (3) provide data for human and ecological risk assessments, and (4) evaluate the effectiveness of remedial actions taken to mitigate the impacts of contaminants in soils, groundwater, and surface water by documenting ecological recovery on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), a federally owned 33,476-acre site in eastern Tennessee, USA, managed by the U.S. Department of Energy. The ORR is composed of multiple watersheds containing many small to mid-size streams. BMAP uses an integrated approach for determining stream health; its databases include long-term seasonal records of contaminant concentrations in water and biota, data from aquatic toxicity testing, and surveys of macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages from impacted and reference streams. These long-term data provide valuable records of degradation and recovery in catchment ecosystems. Our objective in this work is to describe our study system and data series in order to increase awareness of the availability of these long-term data to the catchment science community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vehicle Integrated Propulsion Research Tests

Overview of the Vehicle Integrated Propulsion Research Tests in the Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies project. This overview covers highlights of the completed VIPR I and VIPR II tests and also covers plans for the VIPR III test.

Sensors↗

Unlocking the Future of Aircraft Manufacturing: The Environmental Benefits of Laser Patterning for Surface Enhancement of Aircraft-Certified Alloys

Surface protection and functional modification of aircraft-certified aluminum alloys are essential for corrosion resistance, durability, and long-term airworthiness. At the same time, increasingly restrictive environmental regulations motivate the development of alternatives to legacy wet-chemical surface treatments. This study presents an integrated assessment of ultrafast femtosecond laser surface texturing as a surface functionalization approach for Aluminum 6061 alloys within an aerospace manufacturing and sustainability context. Ultrashort-pulse laser processing enables controlled micro- and nano-scale surface topographical modification with limited thermal impact, allowing adjustment of wettability and surface functionality while preserving bulk material integrity. As a dry and contactless process, femtosecond laser treatment eliminates the use of hazardous chemicals, reduces consumable inputs, and generates minimal secondary waste. A streamlined cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment conducted in accordance with ISO 14040/14044 indicates a lower global-warming potential per functional unit compared with conventional surface treatments, including anodization, plasma-assisted coatings, and organic coating systems. Complementary qualitative analyses addressing environmental health and safety, supply-chain risk, and ESG alignment indicate potential advantages related to occupational safety, regulatory compliance, waste management, and end-of-life recyclability. The investigation is performed on planar Aluminum 6061 reference surfaces with a treated area of 25 mm 2 , providing a controlled laboratory-scale basis for analyzing process behavior, functional surface modification, and associated environmental metrics. Within this defined scope, the results support further evaluation of femtosecond laser surface texturing as a surface engineering option for future aerospace manufacturing.

corrosion resistance↗

Physics Informed Neural Nets for Systems Health Management

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Development in data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. The research work presents application of physics-informed neural nets application to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.

Physics Informed↗

Developing Advanced Support Technologies for Planetary Exploration Missions

The United States Vision for Space Exploration calls for sending robots and humans to explore the Earth s moon, the planet Mars, and beyond. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing a set of design reference missions that will provide further detail to these plans. Lunar missions are expected to provide a stepping stone, through operational research and evaluation, in developing the knowledge base necessary to send crews on long duration missions to Mars and other distant destinations. The NASA Exploration Systems Directorate (ExSD), in its program of bioastronautics research, manages the development of technologies that maintain human life, health, and performance in space. Using a systems engineering process and risk management methods, ExSD s Human Support Systems (HSS) Program selects and performs research and technology development in several critical areas and transfers the results of its efforts to NASA exploration mission/systems development programs in the form of developed technologies and new knowledge about the capabilities and constraints of systems required to support human existence beyond Low Earth Orbit. HSS efforts include the areas of advanced environmental monitoring and control, extravehicular activity, food technologies, life support systems, space human factors engineering, and systems integration of all these elements. The HSS Program provides a structured set of deliverable products to meet the needs of exploration programs. these products reduce the gaps that exist in our knowledge of and capabilities for human support for long duration, remote space missions. They also reduce the performance gap between the efficiency of current space systems and the greater efficiency that must be achieved to make human planetary exploration missions economically and logistically feasible. In conducting this research and technology development program, it is necessary for HSS technologists and program managers to develop a common currency for decision making and the allocation of funding. A high level assessment is made of both the knowledge gaps and the system performance gaps across the program s technical project portfolio. This allows decision making that assures proper emphasis areas and provides a key measure of annual technological progress, as exploration mission plans continue to mature.

Berdich, Debra P.↗

Developing Advanced Human Support Technologies for Planetary Exploration Missions

The United States Vision for Space Exploration calls for sending robots and humans to explore the Earth's moon, the planet Mars, and beyond. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing a set of design reference missions that will provide further detail to these plans. Lunar missions are expected to provide a stepping stone, through operational research and evaluation, in developing the knowledge base necessary to send crews on long duration missions to Mars and other distant destinations. The NASA Exploration Systems Directorate (ExSD), in its program of bioastronautics research, manages the development of technologies that maintain human life, health, and performance in space. Using a system engineering process and risk management methods, ExSD's Human Support Systems (HSS) Program selects and performs research and technology development in several critical areas and transfers the results of its efforts to NASA exploration mission/systems development programs in the form of developed technologies and new knowledge about the capabilities and constraints of systems required to support human existence beyond Low Earth Orbit. HSS efforts include the areas of advanced environmental monitoring and control, extravehicular activity, food technologies, life support systems, space human factors engineering, and systems integration of all these elements. The HSS Program provides a structured set of deliverable products to meet the needs of exploration programs. These products reduce the gaps that exist in our knowledge of and capabilities for human support for long duration, remote space missions. They also reduce the performance gap between the efficiency of current space systems and the greater efficiency that must be achieved to make human planetary exploration missions economically and logistically feasible. In conducting this research and technology development program, it is necessary for HSS technologists and program managers to develop a common currency for decision making and the allocation of funding. A high level assessment is made of both the knowledge gaps and the system performance gaps across the program s technical project portfolio. This allows decision making that assures proper emphasis areas and provides a key measure of annual technological progress, as exploration mission plans continue to mature.

Berdich, Debra P.↗

Integrated Software Health Management for Aircraft GN and C

Modern aircraft rely heavily on dependable operation of many safety-critical software components. Despite careful design, verification and validation (V&V), on-board software can fail with disastrous consequences if it encounters problematic software/hardware interaction or must operate in an unexpected environment. We are using a Bayesian approach to monitor the software and its behavior during operation and provide up-to-date information about the health of the software and its components. The powerful reasoning mechanism provided by our model-based Bayesian approach makes reliable diagnosis of the root causes possible and minimizes the number of false alarms. Compilation of the Bayesian model into compact arithmetic circuits makes SWHM feasible even on platforms with limited CPU power. We show initial results of SWHM on a small simulator of an embedded aircraft software system, where software and sensor faults can be injected.

Schumann, Johann↗

Machine Learning-Enabled Wearable Piezoelectric Acoustic Sensor for Real-Time Breast Abnormality Detection

In contemporary society, breast health has become a significant public health concern, particularly among women. According to statistics from the World Health Organization, both the incidence and mortality rates of breast tumors have steadily increased in recent years. Therefore, effective early-stage screening and postoperative monitoring are essential for maintaining breast health. However, conventional clinical diagnostic modalities are typically bulky, operationally complex, and unsuitable for continuous real-time monitoring, which limits their use in portable and everyday health management applications. To address these limitations, this study proposes a machine learning-integrated wearable piezoelectric sensing platform as an auxiliary tool for breast health assessment. The device consists of a PDMS matching layer embedded with flexible silver nanowires, a P(VDF-TrFE) piezoelectric layer, and a multi-channel low-noise signal acquisition circuit. It is capable of acquiring acoustic echo signals from tissue-mimicking environments and automatically evaluating signal validity using a convolutional neural network (CNN). By integrating piezoelectric sensing with deep learning-based signal analysis, the proposed system achieves a signal-to-noise ratio exceeding 70 dB and a real-time classification accuracy above 96% under controlled conditions. These results demonstrate that the platform provides a compact, portable, and intelligent approach for wearable sensing of mechanical heterogeneity and highlight its potential for future development in continuous biomedical monitoring technologies.

He, Shuaitong↗

System Health and Status Reporting is Used to Improve Infrastructure Systems at the Hanford Site - 20449

Reliable physical infrastructure systems are vital to completing the clean-up mission and the start-up and commissioning of new nuclear waste processing facilities at the Hanford Site. Key infrastructure systems at Hanford include water, sewer, and electrical utilities, roads, telecommunications/network systems, and fire systems. All of the infrastructure systems are non-nuclear, General Service systems that are being maintained under formal engineering configuration control and none are specifically credited in any documented safety analysis (DSA). Starting in calendar year 2017, the Hanford Site's infrastructure and services contractor started producing system health and status reports for a total of 15 critical infrastructure systems as means to get a better understanding of each system's health and how it could be improved to ensure better and more reliable service delivery. As the reporting, tracking, and use of the metrics has matured, the number of systems for which reports are being developed has been expanded to a total of 23. Each of the critical infrastructure systems are assigned primary and alternate design authorities that complete qualifications on each assigned system. The design authorities actively manage and maintain configuration control on each of their systems and track metrics associated with availability, maintenance (corrective and preventive), and configuration of the technical baseline. The metrics are based on the principles established in Chapter V of DOE O 420.1C, Facility Safety, [1] and have been tailored as appropriate to each of the key infrastructure systems. An overall assessment of system health is performed and documented on a routine basis (e.g., quarterly). Included in this documentation is a quantitative score for each of the metrics (i.e., availability, maintenance, configuration management) along with results of system walk-downs, description of any permanent design modifications, identification of new or emerging issues and vulnerabilities affecting the system, and an assessment by the design authority of actions necessary to improve the system health score. The overall status scores are calculated using a formula and based on a pre-determined grading scale, a color is assigned for simple presentation. The information gained from developing the reports is being used to (1) assist with making timely and better informed decisions through the use of solid technical bases that are increasing the overall reliability and capabilities of the Site's infrastructure systems as new expense and capital projects in the Reliability Projects Investment Portfolio (RPIP) are prioritized and executed; (2) feed the risk management program, and (3) integrate the technical content of Master Plans that describe the Site's needs for the system and the system's capabilities to meet those future needs. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Virtualization - A Key Cost Saver in NASA Multi-Mission Ground System Architecture

With science team budgets being slashed, and a lack of adequate facilities for science payload teams to operate their instruments, there is a strong need for innovative new ground systems that are able to provide necessary levels of capability processing power, system availability and redundancy while maintaining a small footprint in terms of physical space, power utilization and cooling.The ground system architecture being presented is based off of heritage from several other projects currently in development or operations at Goddard, but was designed and built specifically to meet the needs of the Science and Planetary Operations Control Center (SPOCC) as a low-cost payload command, control, planning and analysis operations center. However, this SPOCC architecture was designed to be generic enough to be re-used partially or in whole by other labs and missions (since its inception that has already happened in several cases!)The SPOCC architecture leverages a highly available VMware-based virtualization cluster with shared SAS Direct-Attached Storage (DAS) to provide an extremely high-performing, low-power-utilization and small-footprint compute environment that provides Virtual Machine resources shared among the various tenant missions in the SPOCC. The storage is also expandable, allowing future missions to chain up to 7 additional 2U chassis of storage at an extremely competitive cost if they require additional archive or virtual machine storage space.The software architecture provides a fully-redundant GMSEC-based message bus architecture based on the ActiveMQ middleware to track all health and safety status within the SPOCC ground system. All virtual machines utilize the GMSEC system agents to report system host health over the GMSEC bus, and spacecraft payload health is monitored using the Hammers Integrated Test and Operations System (ITOS) Galaxy Telemetry and Command (TC) system, which performs near-real-time limit checking and data processing on the downlinked data stream and injects messages into the GMSEC bus that are monitored to automatically page the on-call operator or Systems Administrator (SA) when an off-nominal condition is detected. This architecture, like the LTSP thin clients, are shared across all tenant missions.Other required IT security controls are implemented at the ground system level, including physical access controls, logical system-level authentication authorization management, auditing and reporting, network management and a NIST 800-53 FISMA-Moderate IT Security plan Risk Assessment Contingency Plan, helping multiple missions share the cost of compliance with agency-mandated directives.The SPOCC architecture provides science payload control centers and backup mission operations centers with a cost-effective, standardized approach to virtualizing and monitoring resources that were traditionally multiple racks full of physical machines. The increased agility in deploying new virtual systems and thin client workstations can provide significant savings in personnel costs for maintaining the ground system. The cost savings in procurement, power, rack footprint and cooling as well as the shared multi-mission design greatly reduces upfront cost for missions moving into the facility. Overall, the authors hope that this architecture will become a model for how future NASA operations centers are constructed!

Ground System Architecture↗

NASA’s Identified Risks of Adverse Outcomes Due to Inadequate Human Systems Integration Architecture in Human Spaceflight

The NASA Human System Risk Board (HSRB) has the overall responsibility for tracking the evolution of the top ~30 human system risks that it has identified to be associated with human spaceflight. As part of this process, the Board is charged with maintaining a consistent, integrated process to mitigate those risks, and developing evidence-based risk posture recommendations. One of the identified risks is due to inadequate human systems integration architecture (HSIA) and a driving factor of this risk is that given decreasing real-time ground support for execution of complex operations during future exploration missions, there is a possibility of adverse performance outcomes including that crew are unable to adequately respond to unanticipated critical malfunctions or detect safety critical procedural errors. The HSRB uses Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) as a communication tool for describing how astronaut exposure to spaceflight hazards leads to meaningful mission-level health and performance outcomes and as the basis for understanding intermediate causal relationships between risk contributing factors and countermeasures that link hazards to outcomes. The HSIA risk DAG will be presented and described. Historically, critical malfunctions requiring Crew/MCC management occurred at a rate of 1.7 times per year for ISS averaged over the lifetime and 3-4 times per year in the burn in phase for the vehicle. These averages do not include EVA data, which greatly increases the incident rate. Prior experience from the Apollo program showed 10/11 crewed missions experienced significant anomalies where crew relied heavily on MCC expertise in real-time. These failure patterns are in line with those observed in other complex engineered systems (e.g., oil rigs, launch systems, commercial aviation, etc.) It is likely that general malfunction and error rates are > 10% for short duration missions (<30 days), based on past and current spaceflight operations data. Likelihood of adverse outcomes has the potential to increase as crew conduct work with new, complex systems and with less ground support. For Low Earth Orbit missions and Lunar missions less than 30 days, assuming minimal comm delays, disruptions and bandwidth limitations, malfunctions and errors can affect mission objectives and crew health but may be mitigated by ground support. For Lunar missions greater than 30 days and any potential Mars mission malfunctions and errors can have Loss of Crew and Loss of Mission consequences due to reduced ground support (communication delays, constraints and blackouts) for more complex operations, as well as reduced resupply and evacuation options.

Daniel M Buckland↗