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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23

Machine Learning Classification of Molten Salt Heat Exchanger Channel Plugging using Synthetic Data

This report addresses the requirements of Milestone M3.4 AI capability to identify and predict maintenance events. Development of digital twins (DT) for molten salt reactor (MSR) components is crucial for reducing operating and maintenance costs (O&M) and ensuring commercial viability of these reactors. Our focus is on development of DT for MSR primary system heat exchanger (HX), a critical component, the fault in which can reduce operating efficiency and force reactor shutdown. We are investigating the feasibility of a conceptual DT of HX consisting of internal distributed temperature sensing with fiber optics and machine learning (ML) algorithms to detect and localize faults. To determine the optimal approach to detection and localization of channel plugging, we benchmark seven different ML models: Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Tree Classifier, Random Forest Tree Classifier, and Feed-Forward Neural Network. ML algorithms are benchmarked using synthetic HX plugging data generated with computational fluid dynamics COMSOL software, with added brown noise to represent experimental noise. We show that the best performance is obtained with the Decision Tree classifier.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Optimizing Facility Operations by Applying Machine Learning to the Army Reserve Enterprise Building Control System (Final Report)

Thousands of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) buildings have building automation systems (BASs) and/or advanced meters. Although these systems have a wealth of data, performance optimization requires time and expertise to review and act on that information. Machine learning (ML) can provide automated and actionable insights to controls operators. This demonstration implemented proven ML methods on the Army Reserve Enterprise Building Control System. ML refers to algorithms that “learn” from data and improve their performance on a given task over time. In the buildings domain these tasks range from predicting future energy consumption, to identifying operational issues before faults occur, to optimizing control decisions. To learn, ML requires input data, which – for buildings – typically consists of instrument data such as energy consumption data and subsystem controls information such as set-point temperatures, and context data consisting of information such as the physical location of the building, the area of the building, and the weather. ML models use the relationships learned from the input data to make predictions with new, previously unseen, data. The team was able to investigate and successfully implement the following ML use cases: labeling consumption data as anomalous or non-anomalous; baseline whole-building load prediction (unknown fault status); fault detection (validation not possible); and site prioritization for energy-related projects. Due to the constraints of the project, interventions were not able to be implemented during the demonstration; therefore, assessments of operational cost savings and maintenance avoided could not be performed. The project has been presented at two leading national building conferences and two additional publications to peer-reviewed journals are currently in preparation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials using MALAMUTE

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy aims to develop and qualify additively manufactured materials for nuclear applications. One key challenge to this is the microstructural variability observed in the additively manufactured products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-throughput experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate qualification. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the additive manufacturing process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture microstructural variability is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning models to develop a digital twin for additive manufacturing that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the additive process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the unique microstructural characteristics of additively manufactured materials. Microstructural features at the subgrain level, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. Idaho National Laboratory’s Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for additively manufactured materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work focuses on capturing the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. In fiscal year 2025, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, in terms of the predictive capabilities of the physics-based and ML models, by adding the capabilities to capture subgrain-level micro-segregation during solidification using phase-field model and to predict the time-dependent dynamics of the AM process through the MOGPAR model. The alloy solidification model in MOOSE incorporates the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316 stainless steel. The model demonstrates the Cr and Ni segregation that occurs during solidification, including that the rate of solidification. The microstructural evolution model is connected to the process conditions via the surrogate model developed in this work. This enables predictions of the final microstructure in conjunctions with the manufacturing process. This work supports AMMT's rapid qualification goals by laying the foundation for an efficient and cost-effective model establishing the PSPP correlation for AM. The generated microstructures and predicted micro-segregation can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work helps to identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property and performance predictions of additively manufactured components. This work will also provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions and simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work can help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for additive manufacturing and accelerate the AMMT's qualification efforts.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Understanding Machine Learning in Earth Science: A Natural Language Processing Approach

Machine learning (ML) is being increasingly utilized in Earth science research. Benefits of ML include efficiency, reduction of human error, and ability to extract hidden patterns within data. However, the mutual lack of each other’s domain knowledge by ML and Earth science stands as a barrier to timely and effective implementation. Earth science, in particular, faces challenges in generating sample data, compared to those of traditional ML problems such as face recognition or stock predictions, where data is abundant and not lacking in ground truth, which is necessary for labeling. Earth science data are more varying in formats, such as HDF5 and image resolutions, and are not standardized across instruments, even within a given Earth science discipline. Previous studies have been done to outline the specific challenges that Earth science faces with ML, while others have focused on using existing publications to mine information efficiently. Other resources such as Scikit-Learn have developed decision trees for choosing appropriate machine learning algorithms, but application within Earth science subjects becomes much more complex. For the current study, we propose a methodology and tool that aids in implementation of ML in Earth science using natural language processing (NLP). Our work comprises three main parts: (1) analyzing existing publications related to ML and Earth science, using natural language processing: (2) extracting from the publications information on ML models subjects in Earth Science: and (3) visualizing the extracted relationships as a network graph. The resulting network graph should aid the Earth science communities in applying optimal ML algorithms and guiding data preparation through visualization of similar studies. The network graph and analysis of document similarity will be the basis of our next step, which is to develop a decision tree for selecting optimal machine learning methodologies for specified Earth science applications.

Zheng, Laura↗

Weather and Random Forest-based Load Profiling Approximation Models and its Transferability across Climate Zones

This study is to provide predictive understanding of the associations of various weather attributes with residential and commercial load profiles, for a variety of climate zones and seasons. In this work, machine learning (ML) approaches were used to identify and quantify the impacts of various weather attributes on residential and commercial electricity demand and its components across the western United States. Performance and transferability of the developed ML models were then evaluated across different temperate zones (e.g., southern, middle, and northern US) and across coastal, mid-continent, and wet zones, with inputs of weather condition data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at representative weather stations. The predictive models were developed based on the ranked/screened factors using the regression tree (RT) and random forest (RF) approaches, for five different scenarios (seasons).

load composite, Random Forest, regression tree, lo↗

Recommendations on Evidence and Process for Certification of Learning-enabled Components in Aerospace Systems

This report primarily identifies a collection of relevant and necessary evidence for assurance of machine learnt components (MLCs)—also known as learning-enabled components—integrated into aircraft systems, and gives preliminary suggestions on the elements of a certification process that invoke the identified evidence. The main focus is on feedforward neural networks that are static and trained offline through supervised learning. A brief background on the generic elements of the lifecycle of an MLC is given to contextualize the assurance considerations and, consequently, the evidence that is relevant and necessary to support certification. At the level of an MLC, those considerations relate to: (i) the consistency and correctness of MLC contributions to system functions in the context of a validated functional intent; and (ii) the absence of MLC contributions to aircraft-level failure conditions. At an ML model level, confidence in model and data properties contribute to assurance of the containing MLC, in particular: (a) generalizability and robustness of models, in the presence of inputs not previously seen during training, disturbances to inputs, and unexpected inputs; and (b) valid data, i.e., data that are at least representative, relevant, complete, and accurate. Evidence for the above span the elements of the ML lifecycle, and includes, at a minimum, lifecycle artifacts that pertain to: (1) properties of requirements capturing functional intent, safety constraints, and aspects of the intended use and operating environment; (2) model performance, model complexity and design, and algorithm choice; (3) achievement of required performance at the levels of a trained model during model development, a trained model after model development is complete, and a trained model that is transformed into an executable equivalent; (4) model implementation aspects necessary for transforming a trained model into the executable equivalent; (5) integration of the executable trained model into the containing MLC, and eventually the larger system; and, (6) lastly, the verification and validation (V&V) of each of the above. Such V&V lifecycle artifacts themselves include: aspects of coverage, e.g., of various levels of requirements by the input space of the model and the data; traceability (where applicable); application of formal methods for property specification, analysis, and checking. Examples of evidence generation methods and tools further ground the discussion on what constitutes evidence, and the contribution to assurance during certification. The identified assurance considerations and supporting evidence is not a comprehensive set. Additionally, neither what should be considered as sufficient evidence relative to the assigned criticality of an MLC, nor how criticality ought to be determined and adjusted, have been considered in this report. However, suggestions are made for potential activities of the ML lifecycle that are aimed at providing confidence that an MLC can be relied upon when integrated into its containing (aircraft) system. Those activities are proposed as candidate elements of a certification process for MLCs. The main purpose of this report to inform regulatory guidance and consensus standards that may be used to meet the safety intent of the applicable regulations.

Aviation safety↗

Predictive models of long COVID

Background: The cause and symptoms of long COVID are poorly understood. It is challenging to predict whether a given COVID-19 patient will develop long COVID in the future. Methods: We used electronic health record (EHR) data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative to predict the incidence of long COVID. We trained two machine learning (ML) models — logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF). Features used to train predictors included symptoms and drugs ordered during acute infection, measures of COVID-19 treatment, pre-COVID comorbidities, and demographic information. We assigned the ‘long COVID’ label to patients diagnosed with the U09.9 ICD10-CM code. The cohorts included patients with (a) EHRs reported from data partners using U09.9 ICD10-CM code and (b) at least one EHR in each feature category. We analysed three cohorts: all patients (n = 2,190,579; diagnosed with long COVID = 17,036), inpatients (149,319; 3,295), and outpatients (2,041,260; 13,741). Findings: LR and RF models yielded median AUROC of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Ablation study revealed that drugs had the highest influence on the prediction task. The SHAP method identified age, gender, cough, fatigue, albuterol, obesity, diabetes, and chronic lung disease as explanatory features. Models trained on data from one N3C partner and tested on data from the other partners had average AUROC of 0.75. Interpretation: ML-based classification using EHR information from the acute infection period is effective in predicting long COVID. SHAP methods identified important features for prediction. Cross-site analysis demonstrated the generalizability of the proposed methodology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Ultrafast Early Warning of Heart Attacks through Plasmon‐Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy using Collapsible Nanofingers and Machine Learning

Abstract As the leading cause of death, heart attacks result in millions of deaths annually, with no end in sight. Early intervention is the only strategy for rescuing lives threatened by heart disease. However, the detection time of the fastest heart‐attack detection system is >15 min, which is too long considering the rapid passage of life. In this study, a machine learning (ML)‐driven system with a simple process, low‐cost, short detection time (only 10 s), and high precision is developed. By utilizing a functionalized nanofinger structure, even a trace amount of biomarker leaked before a heart attack can be captured. Additionally, enhanced Raman profiles are constructed for predictive analytics. Five ML models are developed to harness the useful characteristics of each Raman spectrum and provide early warnings of heart attacks with >98% accuracy. Through the strategic combination of nanofingers and ML algorithms, the proposed warning system accurately provides alerts on silent heart‐attack attempts seconds ahead of actual attacks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Cyber threat assessment of machine learning driven autonomous control systems of nuclear power plants

We report advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber–physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A Machine Learning Framework for Error Compensation in Radiative Transfer Calculations

Radiative heat transfer influences the amount of heat flux transferred to the surface of the hypersonic vehicle, which is essential to evaluate the performance of thermal protection systems. The radiative heat flux is found to be computationally prohibitive while accounting for the variation in spatial, angular, and spectral domains. A new methodology has been recently developed to alleviate the cost of computation in the spectral domain by constructing flow-agnostic reduced-order models (ROMs). The developed spectral ROM databases provide grouping strategies that account for non-equilibrium absorption and emission as well as interaction between disparate species due to spectral overlap in associated radiative processes. However, the developed ROMs need to be optimized for a specific combination of interacting gas species and would need to re-calibrated in case individual species are added/omitted. In this work, we use various machine learning (ML) techniques to approximate the radiative intensities determined by a ROM optimized for a specific gas mixture. The ML model relies on the ROM databases developed for a single species which ignores any spectral overlap. Thus, radiation evaluation starts with a simple summation of radiative intensities predicted using these non-calibrated ROMs for the contributing species. The ML framework then provides a correction to account for the interplay in the frequency, i.e., emission of photons by one species and absorption by another, and yields mixture-specific radiation fields. Once trained on the individual ROM databases, the ML framework offers instantaneous corrections that serves as a time/cost effective alternative to the optimization of ROMs for a specific gas mixture. The ML framework is trained on both the high fidelity and ROM evaluated line of sight (LOS) data from Orion, Stardust, and FIRE II cases to obtain a general purpose correction model for earth re-entry scenarios when radiation contributions from both atomic nitrogen and atomic oxygen are considered. A geometric length scale parameter is used in the training process to account for errors introduced in the ROM databases as a consequence of high optical thickness. The efficacy of the ML framework is underscored through extensive analysis of train and test errors with respect to all the re-entry scenarios. The applicability of such an ML framework was further corroborated by embedding it in a state-of-the-art US3D - NERO system for determining the radiative heat flux transferred to the hypersonic vehicle surface.

Radiation↗

Exploring Capability of Multimodal Foundation Model for Image-based Fault Detection of Photovoltaic Modules

Multimodal Foundation Model (MFM), like ChatGPT and Gemini, have emerged as powerful tools for their exceptional natural language processing capabilities and their emerging potential in image analysis. This paper investigates the application of MFMs for photovoltaic (PV) fault detection through image analysis, focusing on ChatGPT 4.0 and Gemini 1.5 Pro. Three types of PV images and the corresponding common PV faults are detected: bird droppings using visible images, cell cracks via electroluminescence (EL) images, and hotspots using infrared (IR) images. Among the two models, Gemini 1.5 Pro demonstrated superior performance, achieving near-perfect results with an average F1 score of 0.97, consistently outperforming ChatGPT 4.0 in accuracy and reliability. Unlike traditional machine learning (ML) models, MFMs can operate in a zero shot manner that does not require additional training by the user, and the input images are not limited by size, angle, scope, or PV technology. The strong adaptability and user-friendliness make MFM a promising tool for analyzing PV images and advancing health monitoring for PV modules.

Li, Baojie↗

Machine Learning-Guided Exploration of Ternary Metal Borohydrides

We employ deep machine learning (ML) combined with first-principles calculations to explore energetically favorable ternary metal borohydrides. Using La–B–H as a prototype system, we demonstrate that iteratively trained ML models can efficiently screen hundreds of thousands of hypothetical structures and accurately select a small fraction of promising structures and compositions for further studies by first-principles calculations. Such an ML-guided approach dramatically accelerates the pace of materials discovery. A number of new La–B–H ternary compounds with formation energies within 100 meV/atom above the known ternary convex hull are discovered, including a known stable La(BH 4 ) 3 phase. Moreover, by replacing La with Group 1, 2, 3, 13, and 14 elements in the four lowest-energy La–B–H structures from our ML-guided predictions, several low-energy X–B-H (X = Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba, Sc, Y, Ac, Al, Ga, In, Si, Ge, Sn, Pb) compounds are predicted.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Leveraging AI and Spatial Data to Unlock Pipeline Integrity Insights: NETL’s Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM)

Maintaining the integrity of natural gas infrastructure plays a critical role in ensuring energy security. Robust, data-driven foundational AI models for pipeline integrity can help address risk management and mitigation issues. Trusted foundational models can help with industry adoption and accelerate innovation by enhancing integrity predictions, reduce costs, and informing infrastructure build-out. The AIIM dashboard was released in 2022 and utilizes multi-ML models for ensemble-type insights. It was expanded to include analytics on reported incidents. It was developed as an ESRI Dashboard to support data visualization & interrogation and contains pipeline data and model results.

Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM)↗

Physics-informed, empirically constrained machine learning for designing Fe-9Cr alloys

<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Materials data analytics can be used to significantly shorten development time of specialized alloys needed for next generation energy applications. Incorporation of the domain knowledge into deep-learning graph structure via fuzzy pre-training and causal process imitation presents a viable approach to developing accurate data-driven models and reliable alloy design tools, with limited datasets. It was demonstrated that the domain knowledge-based empirical constraints not only inhibit overfitting but also allow training more accurate and reliable ML models with improved transparency of the output interpretation. In this study, alloy tensile properties were interpreted with three competing virtual-microstructure models.</span>

Romanov, Vyacheslav↗

Molecular dynamics simulation of metallic Al–Ce liquids using a neural network machine learning interatomic potential

Al-rich Al-Ce alloys have the possibility of replacing heavier steel and cast-irons for use in high-temperature applications. Knowledge about the structures and properties of Al-Ce alloys at liquid state is vital for optimizing the manufacture process to produce desired allows. However, reliable molecular dynamics simulation of Al-Ce alloy systems remains a great challenge due to the lack of accurate Al-Ce interatomic potential. In this work, an artificial neural network (ANN) deep machine learning (ML) method is used to develop a reliable interatomic potential for Al-Ce alloy. Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulation data on Al-Ce liquid with small unit cell (~200 atoms) and on the known Al-Ce crystalline compounds are collected to train the interatomic potential using ANN-ML. The obtained ANN-ML model reproduces well the energies, forces, and atomic structure of Al 90 Ce 10 liquid and crystalline phases of Al-Ce compounds in comparison with ab initio results. The developed ANN-ML potential is applied in molecular dynamics simulations to study the structures and properties of metallic Al 90 Ce 10 liquid, which would provide useful insight for guiding experimental process to produce desired Al-Ce allows.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Real-Time Edge AI for Distributed Systems (READS): Progress on Beam Loss De-Blending for the Fermilab Main Injector and Recycler

The Fermilab Main Injector enclosure houses two accelerators, the Main Injector and Recycler. During normal operation, high intensity proton beams exist simultaneously in both. The two accelerators share the same beam loss monitors (BLM) and monitoring system. Beam losses in the Main Injector enclosure are monitored for tuning the accelerators and machine protection. Losses are currently attributed to a specific machine based on timing. However, this method alone is insufficient and often inaccurate, resulting in more difficult machine tuning and unnecessary machine downtime. Machine experts can often distinguish the correct source of beam loss. This suggests a machine learning (ML) model may be producible to help de-blend losses between machines. Work is underway as part of the Fermilab Real-time Edge AI for Distributed Systems Project (READS) to develop a ML empowered system that collects streamed BLM data and additional machine readings to infer in real-time, which machine generated beam loss.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Developing Confidence in Machine Learning Results

As the field of deep learning has emerged in recent years, the amount of knowledge and expertise that data scientists are expected to absorb and maintain has correspondingly increased. One of the challenges experienced by data scientists working with deep learning models is developing confidence in the accuracy of their approach and the resulting findings. In this study, we conducted semi-structured interviews with data scientists at a National Laboratory to understand the processes that data scientists use when attempting to develop their models and the ways that they gain confidence that the results they obtained were accurate. These interviews were analysed to provide an overview of the techniques currently used when working with machine learning (ML) models and opportunities for collaboration with human factors researchers to develop new tools are identified.

Baweja, Jessica A.↗

Ground Stop Adjuster: A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) play a crucial role in balancing demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). In current practice, traffic management coordinators (TMCs) determine and issue TMIs and recent research has explored the use of machine learning tools to aid the TMCs. However, most studies have primarily focused on a particular type of TMI, i.e., Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) due to their higher rate of occurrence and longer duration. This study investigates a machine learning approach for monitoring and adjusting a different type of TMI, i.e., Ground Stop (GS), aiming to assist human decision-makers with accurate, consistent, and timely recommendations. Using data from three major airports in the New York metroplex, we evaluated models that predict GS parameters, such as duration and scope. Our results demonstrate that using data from all airports in the NY metroplex and increasing feature granularity improve the prediction accuracy of the ML models.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗