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Future system will require increased levels of automation to address increased diversity, density, environmental considerations resulting in higher complexity. Will automation be able to manage off-nominal, non-normal, unexpected, contingency situations?
Future system will require increased levels of automation to address increased diversity, density, environmental considerations resulting in higher complexity. Will automation be able to manage off-nominal, non-normal, unexpected, contingency situations?
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The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.
We envision an artificial intelligence (AI) based system that will provide support and recommendations to the crew medical officer (CMO) and ground flight surgeon during long-duration space missions. Such a system would be pretrained on the knowledgebase of clinical knowledge on Earth, minimizing the amount of Earth data that needs to be transferred into space. Then during deployment, the system would be constantly refined through active learning from diverse streams of data from sensors in the spacecraft, data collected daily from individual astronauts, and human-in-the-loop feedback from the crew. The model could be interrogated for predictions and recommendations on personalized crew health based on the overall status of the spacecraft, medicinal stores, and status of other crew members. Adaptation techniques would be used to incorporate spaceflight data that have very different distributions from the training data due to the extreme environment. Edge computing and the most advanced neuromorphic processing would enable computation in scenarios with low power and bandwidth, while dimensionality reduction would be employed to ensure that the input data streams from spaceflight are as small as possible. In order to realize this long-term vision, several hardware and software aspects need to be developed and assembled. First, models pretrained on Earth biomedical data would need to be evaluated for predictive accuracy, and the best one selected. That model would need to be adapted to learn from diverse, sparse, and inconsistently measured data streams, as well as human-in-the-loop feedback. A data integration, standardization, and dimensionality reduction methodology would need to be developed to handle all data types and feed them into the model. Once the software and data infrastructure is developed, it would need to be integrated with small footprint compute processors and tested in high-radiation, high-vibration, unregulated temperature situations. As a short-term goal, we recommend to focus on the development of the data and model software structure. Several large language models (LLM) already exist that have been trained on Earth biomedical and clinical knowledgebases, including BioMedLLM, Med-PaLM, SPOKE LLM, and Foresight. These models need to be evaluated for accuracy and the best one chosen for a proof-of-concept structure, while maintaining awareness of the accelerating AI field and incorporating any newly improved model architectures as needed. Then, we recommend to develop a database of synthetic data types to mimic the diverse data streams that are expected in a long-duration space mission. This should include environmental and microbial data from the spacecraft, non-invasive data from wearables and point-of-care devices employed by astronauts, and more invasive molecular and physiological monitoring of clinical and biomarker data from astronauts. The data standardization methodology should be developed, and these data streams used to refine the clinical LLM. Several scenarios should be developed that could plausibly come up in a long-duration space mission, and changes or aberrations introduced to the data at specific times to mimic these scenarios. Then, question and answer tasks should be designed to interrogate the model for predictions and recommendations, with acceptable answers already identified.
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Exponential growth of data from Earth Observation (EO) assets has necessitated the development of sophisticated methods for data interpretation and management. NASA’s New Observing Strategy (NOS) approach aims to coordinate operations among complex heterogenous systems of constellations, requiring advanced Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) techniques. Despite significant advancements in AI/ML across various domains, the EO and machine learning for satellite (SatML) fields remain fragmented, often relying on adapted techniques rather than domain-specific solutions. We present a novel end-to-end data fusion framework tailored specifically for EO and SatML, addressing this gap by facilitating rapid development of AI/ML applications. This framework, called, Multimodal Earth Observation Workflow for Machine Learning (MEOW-ML), sup- ports the entire AI/ML lifecycle, from dataset manipulation, to model training, evaluation, and logging, and is designed to expedite the development of next-generation NOS deployments and SOTA in EO. We apply our framework to predict canopy height model (CHM) derived from lidar data. We integrate multiple data modalities through a hierarchical, multi-path model architecture, effectively identifying and leveraging the unique strengths of each data source to enhance predictive accuracy. Our experiments demonstrate that the multi-path architecture outperforms traditional single-path models and provides significant advantages in both accuracy and computational efficiency.
Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) technologies, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs) capable of sophisticated syntax analysis, offer substantial potential in automating complex processes, thereby saving time and human resources. This study explores the development of an LLM-driven model designed to analyze and categorize a diverse set of Mars mission tasks into 18 predefined Human System Task Categories (HSTCs) based on their textual descriptions. As part of developing the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA projects Performance Risk Model (PRisM) proof-of-concept, we established a framework to project performance scores from small-scale tests onto a preliminary list of Mars tasks. The foundation of our model was a comprehensive spreadsheet populated by NASA experts and clinicians, which detailed each Mars task alongside binary indicators of HSTC involvement. This dataset enabled the initial application of supervised ML, training and testing on existing HSTC labels. The HSTCs were originally defined from a medical system perspective, focusing on task impairments due to deteriorated human health. To expand our model's scope to include categories impacting performance, we face the challenge of generating binary labels (0 or 1) for new categories without pre-existing data. We address this by employing Generative AI (GenAI) software to determine whether a given task involved a new category by asking, "Does task A involve using category B?" We validate our approach by comparing the GenAI's binary classifications with the expert-provided labels for existing HSTCs. Notably, we utilize Ollama [4], a locally hosted GenAI tool that does not require cloud access, thus safeguarding NASA's proprietary data from unauthorized exposure. This study demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging cutting-edge AI tools to advance research, paving the way for automation and rapid decision-making in space exploration.
NASA’s Small Spacecraft & Distributed Systems (SSDS) within the Research and Technology Mission Directorate (RTMD) expands U.S. capability to execute unique missions through targeted investment, rapid development, and flight demonstration of small spacecraft technologies applicable to exploration, science and the commercial space sector. SSDS strategically invests in technology development and on-orbit demonstrations executed across NASA, other government agencies, industry, and academia. The program’s University SmallSat Technology Partnerships initiative awards academic researchers with the opportunity to collaborate with NASA to mature innovative technology. Capabilities aligned with RTMD’s technology shortfalls and interests - power, processing, propulsion, sensors, communications, autonomous navigation, architectures, and advanced applications like artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and edge computing - are prioritized in SSDS investments. These investments enable distributed, autonomous, and cooperative small spacecraft systems that support swarm missions extending beyond low Earth orbit into cislunar and deep space. This paper highlights representative SSDS flight demonstrations that mature these capabilities to enable a future operational infrastructure needed to support sustained exploration of the Moon and beyond. SSDS’s investment strategy emphasizes rapid development and on-orbit demonstration to validate spacecraft technologies required for swarms and distributed mission architectures. The Starling swarm technology demonstration mission exemplifies this approach by advancing distributed spacecraft autonomy, cooperative operations, and space situational awareness. Extended flight testing and ongoing studies of next generation swarm configurations and on-orbit space traffic monitoring and management continue to inform future swarm designs. DiskSat’s four-spacecraft demonstration mission represents SSDS’s strategic vision to expand the design space for future small spacecraft through its commitment to advance novel platform concepts that can impact how science is performed on orbit. Continuing to invest in future platforms, the notional PY12 concept is a 12-spacecraft swarm hosting neuromorphic processors and is envisioned as an on-orbit testbed for AI, edge computing, and positioning, navigation and timing technologies. SSDS also invests in single-spacecraft technology demonstrations that underpin the success of future swarm missions and accelerate the availability of validated technologies across the small spacecraft ecosystem. Examples of such demonstrations include Pathfinder Technology Demonstrator-3 (PTD-3), which performed high-rate optical communications; PTD-R, which demonstrated a camera capable of simultaneous ultraviolet and short-wave infrared optical sensing; and CAPSTONE, the Cislunar Autonomous Positioning System Technology and Operations Navigation Experiment, which validated autonomous navigation in cislunar space. Collectively, SSDS-funded demonstrations advance capabilities across swarms and illustrate a coordinated investment strategy to mature high-impact technologies required for autonomous, distributed, and cooperative small spacecraft systems for low Earth orbit, cislunar, and deep space applications. Technology demonstrations strengthen SSDS partnerships with industry, academia, and other government agencies, and promote small spacecraft community adoption of capabilities required to close technical gaps for swarm missions.
NASA’s Small Spacecraft & Distributed Systems (SSDS) within the Research and Technology Mission Directorate (RTMD) expands U.S. capability to execute unique missions through targeted investment, rapid development, and flight demonstration of small spacecraft technologies applicable to exploration, science and the commercial space sector. SSDS strategically invests in technology development and on-orbit demonstrations executed across NASA, other government agencies, industry, and academia. The program’s University SmallSat Technology Partnerships initiative awards academic researchers with the opportunity to collaborate with NASA to mature innovative technology. Capabilities aligned with RTMD’s technology shortfalls and interests - power, processing, propulsion, sensors, communications, autonomous navigation, architectures, and advanced applications like artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and edge computing - are prioritized in SSDS investments. These investments enable distributed, autonomous, and cooperative small spacecraft systems that support swarm missions extending beyond low Earth orbit into cislunar and deep space. This paper highlights representative SSDS flight demonstrations that mature these capabilities to enable a future operational infrastructure needed to support sustained exploration of the Moon and beyond. SSDS’s investment strategy emphasizes rapid development and on-orbit demonstration to validate spacecraft technologies required for swarms and distributed mission architectures. The Starling swarm technology demonstration mission exemplifies this approach by advancing distributed spacecraft autonomy, cooperative operations, and space situational awareness. Extended flight testing and ongoing studies of next generation swarm configurations and on-orbit space traffic monitoring and management continue to inform future swarm designs. DiskSat’s four-spacecraft demonstration mission represents SSDS’s strategic vision to expand the design space for future small spacecraft through its commitment to advance novel platform concepts that can impact how science is performed on orbit. Continuing to invest in future platforms, the notional PY12 concept is a 12-spacecraft swarm hosting neuromorphic processors and is envisioned as an on-orbit testbed for AI, edge computing, and positioning, navigation and timing technologies. SSDS also invests in single-spacecraft technology demonstrations that underpin the success of future swarm missions and accelerate the availability of validated technologies across the small spacecraft ecosystem. Examples of such demonstrations include Pathfinder Technology Demonstrator-3 (PTD-3), which performed high-rate optical communications; PTD-R, which demonstrated a camera capable of simultaneous ultraviolet and short-wave infrared optical sensing; and CAPSTONE, the Cislunar Autonomous Positioning System Technology and Operations Navigation Experiment, which validated autonomous navigation in cislunar space. Collectively, SSDS-funded demonstrations advance capabilities across swarms and illustrate a coordinated investment strategy to mature high-impact technologies required for autonomous, distributed, and cooperative small spacecraft systems for low Earth orbit, cislunar, and deep space applications. Technology demonstrations strengthen SSDS partnerships with industry, academia, and other government agencies, and promote small spacecraft community adoption of capabilities required to close technical gaps for swarm missions.
An open literature survey of domain aware methods for next generation artificial intelligence as part of a workshop for DNN, R&D
There is yet to be a well-established drag model for non-spherical particles required in a particle-laden flow that could cover a wide range of sphericities. This talk will explore the development of a general drag model for non-spherical particles by applying deep learning using available experimental data available in the literature. The integration of several raw experimental measurements from different sources and research directions allows the training of robust Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (ML) models. Neural networks are an ML approach inspired by the inner biological workings of the brain. This work aims to develop a Deep Neural Network (DNN) that predicts drag coefficient values with the ability to adapt appropriately to unseen data. Given the limited number of data points available and the variance found within the data collected from various sources, challenges may arise when looking to train the model. Our study tests and implements various model regularization techniques and assesses different loss and activation functions for the proposed DNN. The proposed model considers a broader range of features other than sphericity and Reynold number. These features include density ratio, solid volume fraction, lengthwise and crosswise sphericity, and more. Furthermore, we present the features that play a significant role in predicting different drag coefficients through feature importance. Within the investigated parameter ranges in this study, the following conclusions can be achieved and summarized below: • An improved drag coefficient model can be developed by considering more features such as, aspect ratio, lengthwise sphericity, crosswise sphericity, and density ratio. • DNN model can predict better results compared to traditional methods using MAE metric. • The proposed model addresses data challenges such as limited data and extreme data points through expanded feature-set and regularization. • Three major features that mostly affect the drag coefficient were identified from a feature importance analysis.
High-performance microchannel heat exchangers are needed to supply heat for power conversion for nuclear microreactors. An airfoil fin microchannel design, constructed of Alloy 617 with helium as the working fluid, was analyzed and optimized using a design of experiments with artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques. The use of airfoil fins offers the potential to reduce pressure drop across the heat exchanger, as compared to other types of channel configurations. A framework for topology optimization of airfoil fin PCHEs has been developed that can be readily extended to different fin sizes and shapes, as well as different inlet and operating conditions, materials of construction, and working fluids. An optimization procedure was developed that employs computational fluid dynamics for a set of design points identified using Latin hypercube sampling. STAR-CCM+ was used to analyze a simplified two-channel configuration where five parameters were varied – inlet angle, fin scale, extent of staggering, transverse and longitudinal pitches. Two methods were compared for generating surrogate models – a 5D polynomial and a regression neural network. A response surface approximation was created from the surrogate models and input to a genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm identified a set of optimal points on the Pareto front. The optimal geometry was found across six channel Reynolds numbers ranging from 1000 to 5000 to analyze how varying inlet conditions affects the optimal design. A set of optimal designs that maximizes heat transfer and minimizes pressure drop was identified, and a thermal stress analysis was performed on the optimal design. This work has developed a digital framework for the expedient topology design and evaluation of PCHE designs for gas-cooled microreactor applications. Correlations for the Nusselt number and Darcy friction factor were developed that can be useful for thermal hydraulic analyses using system codes. A thermal stress analysis was conducted and a brief discussion of the status of code cases of PCHEs for nuclear applications is given. Testing and thermomechanical modeling is needed to facilitate future code compliance of PCHEs for high pressure and high temperature applications.
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