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At least 415 records · Page 23
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NASA NTRS2009

Validation of Community Models: Identifying Events in Space Weather Model Timelines

I develop and document a set of procedures which test the quality of predictions of solar wind speed and polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) made by coupled models of the ambient solar corona and heliosphere. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used to illustrate the application of these validation procedures. I present an algorithm which detects transitions of the solar wind from slow to high speed. I also present an algorithm which processes the measured polarity of the outward directed component of the IMF. This removes high-frequency variations to expose the longer-scale changes that reflect IMF sector changes. I apply these algorithms to WSA model predictions made using a small set of photospheric synoptic magnetograms obtained by the Global Oscillation Network Group as input to the model. The results of this preliminary validation of the WSA model (version 1.6) are summarized.

MacNeice, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2010

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The imminent launch of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will carry the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with I" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of ~1.5 Terabytes per day from SDO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." This talk will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO /HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Three-Dimensional Modeling of the Solar Wind: From the Coronal Base to the Outer Heliosphere

We have developed a global fully three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic solar wind model for the region that extends from the coronal base to 100 AU. The simulation domain consists of tree spherical shell subdomains with computational boundaries between them placed at 20 solar radii and 0.3 AU. The location of the first boundary ensures that the flow at the boundary is both supersonic and super-Alfvenic. A steady-state solution in the innermost (coronal) region is obtained by the time-relaxation method. The solution uses a tilted dipole model or solar magnetograms as the boundary condition at the coronal base and includes a flux of Alfven waves in the WKB approximation which provide additional acceleration for the coronal outflow in the open field regions. The intermediate region solution is constructed by the integration of steady-state equations along radius using a marching scheme. The outer region solution (0.3-100 AU) is obtained again by the time relaxation and takes into account turbulence transport and heating as well as heating, flow deceleration, and other effects due to the interstellar pickup protons treated as a separate fluid. We use the model to simulate the global steady-state structure of the solar wind from the coronal base to the heliospheric boundary and compare the results with Ulysses and Voyager observations.

Usmanov, A. V↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multifluid Simulations of the Global Solar Wind Including Pickup Ions and Turbulence Modeling

I will describe a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar wind that takes into account turbulent heating of the wind by velocity and magnetic fluctuations as well as a variety of effects produced by interstellar pickup protons. The interstellar pickup protons are treated in the model as one fluid and the protons and electrons are treated together as a second fluid. The model equations include a Reynolds decomposition of the plasma velocity and magnetic field into mean and fluctuating quantities, as well as energy transfer from interstellar pickup protons to solar wind protons that results in the deceleration of the solar wind. The model is used to simulate the global steady-state structure of the solar wind in the region from 0.3 to 100 AU. The simulation assumes that the background magnetic field on the Sun is either a dipole (aligned or tilted with respect to the solar rotation axis) or one that is deduced from solar magnetograms.

Goldstein, Melvyn L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

THEMIS Observations of a Transient Event at the Magnetopause

This study focuses on Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions During Substorms (THEMIS) observations of a long \duration transient event in the vicinity of the dayside magnetopause at approx.15:34 UT on 18 July 2008 that was characterized by features typical of a magnetospheric flux transfer event (FTE): a bipolar negative-positive 5-7 nT signature in the Bn component, a positive monopolar variation in the Bl and Bm components, a approx.5-7 nT enhancement in the total magnetic field strength, and a transient density and flow enhancement. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly radial and disturbed during the intervals studied; that is, it was favorable for the repeated formation, disappearance and reformation of the foreshock just upstream from the subsolar bow shock. We show that varying IMF directions and solar wind pressures created significant effects that caused the compressions of the magnetosphere and the bow shock and magnetopause motions and triggered the transient event. Global signatures of magnetic impulse events (MIEs) in ground magnetograms during the period suggest a widespread pressure pulse instead of a localized FTE as the cause of the event in the magnetosphere. The directions of propagation and the flow patterns associated with the event also suggest an interpretation in terms of pressure pulses.

Korotova, G. I.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Evidence for Two Separate but Interlaced Components of the Chromospheric Magnetic Field

Chromospheric fibrils are generally thought to trace out low-lying, mainly horizontal magnetic elds that fan out from flux concentrations in the photosphere. A high-resolution (approximately 0.1" per pixel) image, taken in the core of the Ca II 854.2 nm line and covering an unusually large area, shows the dark brils within an active region remnant as fine, looplike features that are aligned parallel to each other and have lengths comparable to a supergranular diameter. Comparison with simultaneous line-of-sight magnetograms confirms that the fibrils are centered above intranetwork areas (supergranular cell interiors), with one end rooted just inside the neighboring plage or strong unipolar network but the other endpoint less clearly defined. Focusing on a particular arcade-like structure lying entirely on one side of a lament channel (large-scale polarity inversion), we find that the total amount of positive-polarity flux underlying this "fibril arcade" is approximately 50 times greater than the total amount of negative-polarity flux. Thus, if the brils represent closed loops, they must consist of very weak fields (in terms of total magnetic flux), which are interpenetrated by a more vertical field that contains most of the flux. This surprising result suggests that the fibrils in unipolar regions connect the network to the nearby intranetwork flux, while the bulk of the network flux links to remote regions of the opposite polarity, forming a second, higher canopy above the fibril canopy. The chromospheric field near the edge of the network thus has an interlaced structure resembling that in sunspot penumbrae.

Reardom, K. P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Energetics of Large Solar Eruptive Events

We have evaluated the energetics of the larger solar eruptive events recorded with a variety of spacecraft instruments between February 2002 and December 2006. All of the energetically important components of the flares and of the accompanying coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles have been evaluated as accurately as the observations allow. These components include the following : (1) the total energy in the high temperature plasma determined from the RHESSI thermal X-ray observations; (2) the total energies in accelerated electrons above 20 keV and ions above 1 MeV from RHESSI hard X-ray and gamma-ray observations, respectively; (3) the potential and kinetic energies of the CME from SOHO/LASCO observations; (4) the solar energetic particle (SEP) energy estimates from in situ measurements on ACE, GOES, and SOHO; (5) the total radiated energy from the SORCEITSI measurements where available, and otherwise from the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM). The results are assimilated and discussed relative to the probable amount of non potential magnetic energy estimated to be available in the flaring active regions from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms.

Dennis, Brian R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Evidence for Two Separate but Interlaced Components of the Chromospheric Magnetic Field

Chromospheric fibrils are generally thought to trace out horizontal magnetic fields that fan out from flux concentrations in the photosphere. A high-resolution (0.2") image taken in the core of the Ca IJ854.2 nm line shows the dark fibrils within an active region remnant as fine, loop-like features that are aligned parallel to each other and have lengths on the order of a supergranular diameter (approx.30 Mm). Comparison with a line-of-sight magnetogram confirms that the fibrils are centered above intranetwork areas, with one end rooted just inside the neighboring plage or strong unipolar network but the other endpoint less clearly defined. Focusing on a particular arcade-like structure lying entirely on one side of a filament channel (large-scale polarity inversion), we find that the total amount of positive-polarity flux underlying this "fibril arcade' is 50 times greater than the total amount of negative-polarity flux. Thus, if the fibrils represent closed loops, they must consist of very weak fields (in terms of flux density), which are interpenetrated by a more vertical field that contains most of the flux. This surprising result suggests that the fibrils in unipolar regions connect the network to the nearby intranetwork flux, while the bulk of the network flux is diverted upward into the corona and connects to remote regions of the opposite polarity. We conclude that the chromospheric field near the edge of the network has an interlaced structure resembling that in sunspot penumbrae, with the fibrils representing the low-lying horizontal flux that remains trapped within the highly nonpotential chromospheric layer.

Muglach, K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Photospheric Magnetic Evolution in the WHI Active Regions

Sequences of line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms recorded by the Michelson Doppler Imager are used to quantitatively characterize photospheric magnetic structure and evolution in three active regions that rotated across the Sun s disk during the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI), in an attempt to relate the photospheric magnetic properties of these active regions to flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Several approaches are used in our analysis, on scales ranging from whole active regions, to magnetic features, to supergranular scales, and, finally, to individual pixels. We calculated several parameterizations of magnetic structure and evolution that have previously been associated with flare and CME activity, including total unsigned magnetic flux, magnetic flux near polarity-inversion lines, amount of canceled flux, the "proxy Poynting flux," and helicity flux. To catalog flare events, we used flare lists derived from both GOES and RHESSI observations. By most such measures, AR 10988 should have been the most flare- and CME-productive active region, and AR 10989 the least. Observations, however, were not consistent with this expectation: ARs 10988 and 10989 produced similar numbers of flares, and AR 10989 also produced a few CMEs. These results highlight present limitations of statistics-based flare and CME forecasting tools that rely upon line-of-sight photospheric magnetic data alone.

Welsch, B. T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Inferring Lower Boundary Driving Conditions Using Vector Magnetic Field Observations

Low-beta coronal MHD simulations of realistic CME events require the detailed specification of the magnetic fields, velocities, densities, temperatures, etc., in the low corona. Presently, the most accurate estimates of solar vector magnetic fields are made in the high-beta photosphere. Several techniques have been developed that provide accurate estimates of the associated photospheric plasma velocities such as the Differential Affine Velocity Estimator for Vector Magnetograms and the Poloidal/Toroidal Decomposition. Nominally, these velocities are consistent with the evolution of the radial magnetic field. To evolve the tangential magnetic field radial gradients must be specified. In addition to estimating the photospheric vector magnetic and velocity fields, a further challenge involves incorporating these fields into an MHD simulation. The simulation boundary must be driven, consistent with the numerical boundary equations, with the goal of accurately reproducing the observed magnetic fields and estimated velocities at some height within the simulation. Even if this goal is achieved, many unanswered questions remain. How can the photospheric magnetic fields and velocities be propagated to the low corona through the transition region? At what cadence must we observe the photosphere to realistically simulate the corona? How do we model the magnetic fields and plasma velocities in the quiet Sun? How sensitive are the solutions to other unknowns that must be specified, such as the global solar magnetic field, and the photospheric temperature and density?

Schuck, Peter W.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Axisymmetric Flow Properties for Magnetic Elements of Differing Strength

Aspects of the structure and dynamics of the flows in the Sun's surface shear layer remain uncertain and yet are critically important for understanding the observed magnetic behavior. In our previous studies of the axisymmetric transport of magnetic elements we found systematic changes in both the differential rotation and the meridional flow over the course of Solar Cycle 23. Here we examine how those flows depend upon the strength (and presumably anchoring depth) of the magnetic elements. Line of sight magnetograms obtained by the HMI instrument aboard SDO over the course of Carrington Rotation 2097 were mapped to heliographic coordinates and averaged over 12 minutes to remove the 5-min oscillations. Data masks were constructed based on the field strength of each mapped pixel to isolate magnetic elements of differing field strength. We used Local Correlation Tracking of the unmasked data (separated in time by 1- to 8-hours) to determine the longitudinal and latitudinal motions of the magnetic elements. We then calculated average flow velocities as functions of latitude and longitude from the central meridian for approx 600 image pairs over the 27-day rotation. Variations with longitude indicate and characterize systematic errors in the flow measurements associated with changes in the signal from disk center to limb. Removing these systematic errors reveals changes in the axisymmetric flow properties that reflect changes in flow properties with depth in the surface shear layer.

Rightmire-Upton, Lisa↗
NASA NTRS2012

Meridional Flow in Solar Cycle 24: The Impact on the Polar Magnetic Fields

Axisymmetric flows, Differential Rotation and Meridional Flow (MF), were measured by tracking the motion of magnetic elements on the surface of the Sun using data obtained by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Mission. HMI provides the highest resolution full ]disk magnetograms available to date. This dramatically reduces the noise in axisymmetric flows, particularly at high latitudes (i.e. near the poles). The MF was found to vary greatly from one Carrington Rotation to the next. Furthermore, a distinct north ]south difference was found in the MF at high latitudes: Flow in the South was persistently weaker than flow in the North. Conclusions will be drawn concerning the MF variability, north ]south differences, and the impact on the polar magnetic field strengths and the timing of their reversals.

Upton, Lisa↗
NASA NTRS2013

Observations from Hinode and SDO of a Twisting and Writhing Start to a Solar-filament-eruption Cascade

Active region eruption of 1 June 2011. Ejective eruption. GOES class C4.1 flare. SDO/AIA, various filters (94, 131, 171, 193, 211, 304, 335 Ang.) High time cadence (24 s) and high spatial resolution (0 .6 pixels). SDO/HMI line-of-sight magnetograms. Hinode observed the onset, and the later decay phase. There are two filament eruptions (filament 1 and filament 2). Filament 1 has slow rise with steps, as in several previous cases. GOES "episodes" play role of "microflares" in other events; that is, filament jumps <=> intensity peaks. Episode 1 brightening: Accompanied by filament 1 s initial motions. (Rest of talk.) Filament 1 becomes unstable, and.. Episode 2 brightening: Flare ribbons following filament 1 s fast liftoff. This destabilizes neighboring filament 2, and... Episode 3 brightening: Flare ribbons of whole system following filament 2 s eruption.Something leads to reconnection; not totally clear what. Reconnection -> twisted flux rope in approx.20 min; episode 1 microflare (flare ribbons; TC) and filament jump. Twist -> writhe, via kink instability; filament-trajectory plateau, approx. 20 min. Writhe -> jump and eruption of filament 1, via instability; episode 2 microflare (flare ribbons; TC). (E.g., Williams et al.) First eruption -> second filament eruption (episode 3 flare ribbons; TC). (E.g., Sterling, Moore; Liu et al.; Torok et al.; Schrijver & Title.). Estimate amount of free energy in newly-twisted field (cf. Moore 1988): where we have taken L and r = 50, 3 arcsec. Energy of the total system is likely 1030 ergs or more. So "no" is answer to question. Additional energy comes from remainder of sheared large loop, shear (free energy) of second filament, etc. (Normally assumed situation.) Some history of twist-induced instability in filament eruptions: e.g., Sakurai, Torok & Kliem, Fan & Gibson, Gilbert et al., van Driel-Gesztelyi et al. Criterion : Kink instability for line-tied tube (Hood & Priest): 2.5pi; for Titov & Demoulin loop (Torok et al): approx.3.5pi We observe here: approx.1.5 turns (3.0pi) over ~50. => consistent with kink instability acting. (Cf. Srivastava et al. (2010): Small flare seen in TRACE and Hinode: approx.6.0pi)

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Meridional Flow Variations in Cycles 23 and 24: Active Latitude Control of Sunspot Cycle Amplitudes

We have measured the meridional motions of magnetic elements observed in the photosphere over sunspot cycles 23 and 24 using magnetograms from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI. Our measurements confirm the finding of Komm, Howard, and Harvey (1993) that the poleward meridional flow weakens at cycle maxima. Our high spatial and temporal resolution analyses show that this variation is in the form of a superimposed inflow toward the active latitudes. This inflow is weaker in cycle 24 when compared to the inflow in 23, the stronger cycle. This systematic modulation of the meridional flow should also modulate the amplitude of the following sunspot cycle through its influence on the Sun's polar fields. The observational evidence and the theoretical consequences (similar to those of Cameron and Schussler (2012)) will be described.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Meridional Flow Variations in Cycles 23 and 24: Active Latitude Control of Sunspot Cycle Amplitudes

We have measured the meridional motions of magnetic elements observed in the photosphere over sunspot cycles 23 and 24 using magnetograms from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI. Our measurements confirm the finding of Komm, Howard, and Harvey (1993) that the poleward meridional flow weakens at cycle maxima. Our high spatial and temporal resolution analyses show that this variation is in the form of a superimposed inflow toward the active latitudes. This inflow is weaker in cycle 24 when compared to the inflow in 23, the stronger cycle. This systematic modulation of the meridional flow can modulate the amplitude of the following sunspot cycle through its influence on the Sun's polar fields.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Coronal Hole Jet Observed with Hinode and the Solar Dynamics Observatory

A small blowout jet was observed at the boundary of the south coronal hole on 2011 February 8 at around 21:00 UT. Images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) revealed an expanding loop rising from one footpoint of a compact, bipolar bright point. Magnetograms from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board SDO showed that the jet was triggered by the cancelation of a parasitic positive polarity feature near the negative pole of the bright point. The jet emission was present for 25 mins and it extended 30 Mm from the bright point. Spectra from the EUV Imaging Spectrometer on board Hinode yielded a temperature and density of 1.6 MK and 0.9-1.7 × 10( exp 8) cu cm for the ejected plasma. Line-of-sight velocities reached up to 250 km/s. The density of the bright point was 7.6 × 10(exp 8) cu cm, and the peak of the bright point's emission measure occurred at 1.3 MK, with no plasma above 3 MK.

magnetic fields↗
NASA NTRS2013

Source Regions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field and Variability in Heavy-Ion Elemental Composition in Gradual Solar Energetic Particle Events

Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are those in which ions are accelerated to their observed energies by interactions with a shock driven by a fast coronal mass-ejection (CME). Previous studies have shown that much of the observed event-to-event variability can be understood in terms of shock speed and evolution in the shock-normal angle. But an equally important factor, particularly for the elemental composition, is the origin of the suprathermal seed particles upon which the shock acts. To tackle this issue, we (1) use observed solar-wind speed, magnetograms, and the PFSS model to map the Sun-L1 interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) line back to its source region on the Sun at the time of the SEP observations; and (2) then look for correlation between SEP composition (as measured by Wind and ACE at approx. 2-30 MeV/nucleon) and characteristics of the identified IMF-source regions. The study is based on 24 SEP events, identified as a statistically-significant increase in approx. 20 MeV protons and occurring in 1998 and 2003-2006, when the rate of newly-emergent solar magnetic flux and CMEs was lower than in solar-maximum years and the field-line tracing is therefore more likely to be successful. We find that the gradual SEP Fe/O is correlated with the field strength at the IMF-source, with the largest enhancements occurring when the footpoint field is strong, due to the nearby presence of an active region. In these cases, other elemental ratios show a strong charge-to-mass (q/M) ordering, at least on average, similar to that found in impulsive events. These results lead us to suggest that magnetic reconnection in footpoint regions near active regions bias the heavy-ion composition of suprathermal seed ions by processes qualitatively similar to those that produce larger heavy-ion enhancements in impulsive SEP events. To address potential technical concerns about our analysis, we also discuss efforts to exclude impulsive SEP events from our event sample.

magnetic field↗
NASA NTRS2014

MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free-magnetic-energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the "Present MAG4" technique and each of three alternative techniques, called "McIntosh Active-Region Class," "Total Magnetic Flux," and "Next MAG4." We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major-flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique-performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4).

Falconer, David A.↗