Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model Inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

H- and Dissociation in Ultra-hot Jupiters: A Retrieval Case Study of WASP-18b

Atmospheres of a number of ultra-hot Jupiters (UHJs) with temperatures gsim2000 K have been observed recently. Many of these planets show largely featureless thermal spectra in the near-infrared observed with the HST WFC3 spectrograph (1.1–1.7 μm) even though this spectral range contains strong H2O opacity. Recent works have proposed the possibility of H- opacity masking the H2O feature and/or thermal dissociation of H2O causing its apparent depletion at the high temperatures of UHJs. In this work, we test these hypotheses using observations of the exoplanet WASP-18b as a case study. We report detailed atmospheric retrievals of the planet using the HyDRA retrieval code, extended to include the effects of H- opacity and thermal dissociation. We report constraints on the H2O, CO, and H- abundances as well as the pressure–temperature profile of the dayside atmosphere for retrievals with and without H-/dissociation for each data set. We find that the H2O and H- abundances are relatively unconstrained given the featureless WFC3 spectra. We do not conclusively detect H- in the planet, contrary to previous studies that used equilibrium models to infer its presence. The constraint on the CO abundance depends on the combination of WFC3 and Spitzer data, ranging from solar to super-solar CO values. We additionally see signs of a thermal inversion from two of the data sets. Our study demonstrates the potential of atmospheric retrievals of UHJs, including the effects of H- and thermal dissociation of molecules.

Siddharth Gandhi↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GeneLab: Current and Future Omics Data Integration Between Space Biology and HRP

For the past five years, the Biological and Physical Sciences Division has pioneered Open Science in Space Biology by funding the NASA GeneLab project. Along with the Ames Life Sciences Data Archive, GeneLab has quickly become the world leader in archiving and scientifically curating spaceflight and spaceflight relevant multi-omics data. Specifically, the GeneLab Data System has become a full enterprise solution providing advanced mining capabilities, several application programming interfaces for data federation and machine learning approaches, and delivering to the world an analytical and visualization platform which has enabled collaboration within the scientific community. Over the past three years, large meta-analysis and modeling studies have been published by the GeneLab Analysis Working Groups (AWGs), which are comprised of ~200 volunteer scientists. One natural extension of GeneLab data reuse has recently turned towards linking animal data with human data, which is the next necessary step to further validate animal models for inferring biological risks to humans conducting LEO, lunar or Martian missions. As such, data from the Human Research Program are an essential component of GeneLab and ALSDA. At the moment, simulated space radiation experiments conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory make the most of HRP GeneLab data, and the scientific community has been eager to also link their animal spaceflight results to actual Astronaut data and human analog data. We will discuss further the current status of knowledge and future approaches to accelerate our basics understanding of the impact of space stressors on humans using latest omics technology.

omics↗
NASA NTRS2022

NASA Satellites and Data Fusion: A Case Study with Coral Reefs

As the world is experiencing a significant rise in both AI, Climate, and Space start-up companies, we are in a new wave of limitless innovation. NASA's statutory responsibility is to "provide for the widest practicable and appropriate dissemination of information concerning its activities and the results thereof." (51 U.S.C. § 20112) In particular, through machine learning, the public data drawn from NASA’s space assets can provide insights for addressing climate-related problems here on Earth. And many climate start-up companies can benefit from leveraging this data, either for proof of concepts or their own missions. In the Fall of 2021, several scientists from NASA and Coral Vita led a Practicum with the Georgia Institute of Technology Masters in Data Analytics program. The Practicum saw two teams of students develop and implement machine learning models to infer, from CALIPSO satellite imagery, vitality properties upon satellite pass. This kind of capability can lead to real-time mapping of coral health around the world, giving organization an understanding of where to prioritize reef reconstitution.. In this presentation, we will highlight this use case and discuss other concrete applications in which space data is used to solve problems here on Earth.

Earth Sciences↗
NASA NTRS2026

X-Ray Polarization From the Atoll 4U 1735−44 Suggests a Low Inclination

X-ray polarimetry is a new tool capable of probing the geometry of accretion onto weakly magnetized neutron stars. Here we present the first X-ray spectro-polarimetric results from coordinated observations of the atoll source 4U 1735−44, conducted with the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE), NICER, and NuSTAR . Over the 2–8 keV energy range, we obtained a marginal detection of polarization with the polarization degree of 1.4% ± 0.7% and polarization angle of −29◦ ± 14◦, corresponding to a 3σ upper limit on the polarization degree of 3.5%. The best-fit model to describe the spectrum comprises a thermal component associated with the accretion disk, a Comptonized black body component, and a relativistic reflection component. From the reflection model, we infer a disk inclination of ∼40◦. The spectroscopic and polarimetric properties of 4U 1735−44 are consistent with those observed in other atoll sources studied by IXPE, with its low polarization likely due to its low inclination

X-rays: binaries↗
DOE OSTI2017

Reduced chemistry model calibration using unsteady flames with repetitive extinction and ignition

In this paper, combustion in a narrow channel with an imposed temperature gradient is used to calibrate a reduced chemical mechanism. The focus is placed on unsteady flames with repetitive extinction and ignition (FREI) at high pressure. The reduced mechanism follows a hybrid approach, combining a small fuel-dependent submechanism with a detailed fuel-independent submechanism for the core species chemistry. The fuel-dependent submechanism consists of three species and nine reactions describing both the low and high-temperature fuel decomposition pathways. The sensitivity of the extinction and ignition locations to the fuel-dependent reactions is assessed and multiple reactions are found to affect the FREI behavior. The sensitive reactions are calibrated following a Bayesian approach. The calibrated reduced model is compared to a detailed model and good agreement in ignition delay times and laminar flame speeds is observed. Finally, this illustrates the potential of a micro flow reactor with a controlled temperature profile to test fuels, calibrate chemical models, and infer kinetic data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Wastewater treatment plant online monitoring and control

A method of operating a waste water treatment plant (WWTP) having at least one of an aerobic digester (AD) and a membrane bioreactor (MBR) is described. The method of operating AD is comprised of monitoring and controlling AD in real-time using an online extended Kalman filter (EKF) having a online dynamic model of AD. The EKF uses real-time AD measured data, and online dynamic model of AD to update adapted model parameters and estimate model based inferred variables for AD, which are used for AD control by AD control system having supervisory and low-level control layers. The method of operating MBR is similar to that of AD. The supervisory control ensures the WWTP satisfying the effluent quality requirement while minimize the operation cost. A WWTP having at least one of AD or MBR is disclosed. The method of operating a WWTP can be implemented using a computer.

Kumar, Aditya↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lens Modeling of STRIDES Strongly Lensed Quasars Using Neural Posterior Estimation

Strongly lensed quasars can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography. Models of the lens masses are a necessary component of this analysis. To enable time-delay cosmography from a sample of $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ lenses, which will soon become available from surveys like the Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Euclid Wide Survey, we require fast and standardizable modeling techniques. To address this need, we apply neural posterior estimation (NPE) for modeling galaxy-scale strongly lensed quasars from the Strong Lensing Insights into the Dark Energy Survey (STRIDES) sample. NPE brings two advantages: speed and the ability to implicitly marginalize over nuisance parameters. We extend this method by employing sequential NPE to increase precision of mass model posteriors. We then fold individual lens models into a hierarchical Bayesian inference to recover the population distribution of lens mass parameters, accounting for out-of-distribution shift. After verifying our method using simulated analogs of the STRIDES lens sample, we apply our method to 14 Hubble Space Telescope single-filter observations. We find the population mean of the power-law elliptical mass distribution slope, γ lens , to be $\mathcal{M}_γ$ lens = 2.13 ± 0.06. Our result represents the first population-level constraint for these systems. This population-level inference from fully automated modeling is an important stepping stone toward cosmological inference with large samples of strongly lensed quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A seamless multiscale operator neural network for inferring bubble dynamics

Modelling multiscale systems from nanoscale to macroscale requires the use of atomistic and continuum methods and, correspondingly, different computer codes. Here, we develop a seamless method based on DeepONet, which is a composite deep neural network (a branch and a trunk network) for regressing operators. In particular, we consider bubble growth dynamics, and we model tiny bubbles of initial size from 100 nm to 10 $\mathrm {\mu }\textrm {m}$ , modelled by the Rayleigh–Plesset equation in the continuum regime above 1 $\mathrm {\mu }\textrm {m}$ and the dissipative particle dynamics method for bubbles below 1 $\mathrm {\mu }\textrm {m}$ in the atomistic regime. After an offline training based on data from both regimes, DeepONet can make accurate predictions of bubble growth on-the-fly (within a fraction of a second) across four orders of magnitude difference in spatial scales and two orders of magnitude in temporal scales. The framework of DeepONet is general and can be used for unifying physical models of different scales in diverse multiscale applications.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and -IV

Abstract Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year, and surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time (t E) distribution. However, systematics in individual light curves as well as oversimplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and -IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the t E distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and the previous analyses overestimated the number of t E > 100 day events due to their oversimplistic model ignoring parallax effects. We use our fits to identify the hundreds filling a regime in the microlensing parameter space that are 50% pure of black holes. Finally, we have released the largest-ever catalog of Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimates for microlensing events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Li-7 abundances in halo stars: Testing stellar evolution models and the primordial Li-7 abundance

A large number of stellar evolution models with (Fe/H) = -2.3 and -3.3 have been calculated in order to determine the primordial Li-7 abundance and to test current stellar evolution models by a comparison to the extensive database of accurate Li abundances in extremely metal-poor halo stars observed by Thorburn (1994). Standard models with gray atmospheres do a very good job of fitting the observed Li abundances in stars hotter than approximately 5600 K. They predict a primordial. Li-7 abundance of log N(Li) = 2.24 +/- 0.03. Models which include microscopic diffusion predict a downward curvature in the Li-7 destruction isochrones at hot temperatures which is not present in the observations. Thus, the observations clearly rule out models which include uninhibited microscopic diffusion of Li-7 from the surface of the star. Rotational mixing inhibits the microscopic diffusion and the (Fe/H) = -2.28 stellar models which include both diffusion and rotational mixing provide an excellent match to the mean trend in T(sub eff) which is present in the observations. Both the plateau stars and the heavily depleted cool stars are well fit by these models. The rotational mixing leads to considerable Li-7 depletion in these models and the primordial Li-7 abundance inferred from these models is log N(Li) = 3.08 +/- 0.1. However, the (Fe/H) = -3.28 isochrones reveal problems with the combined models. These isochrones predict a trend of decreasing log N(Li) with increasing T(sub eff) which is not present in the observations. Possible causes for this discrepancy are discussed.

Chaboyer, Brian↗
NASA NTRS2017

Modular Spectral Inference Framework Applied to Young Stars and Brown Dwarfs

In practice, synthetic spectral models are imperfect, causing inaccurate estimates of stellar parameters. Using forward modeling and statistical inference, we derive accurate stellar parameters for a given observed spectrum by emulating a grid of precomputed spectra to track uncertainties. Spectral inference as applied to brown dwarfs re: Synthetic spectral models (Marley et al 1996 and 2014) via the newest grid spans a massive multi-dimensional grid applied to IGRINS spectra, improving atmospheric models for JWST. When applied to young stars(10Myr) with large starpots, they can be measured spectroscopically, especially in the near-IR with IGRINS.

K↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inference offers a metric to constrain dynamical models of neutrino flavor transformation

The multimessenger astrophysics of compact objects presents a vast range of environments where neutrino flavor transformation may occur and may be important for nucleosynthesis, dynamics, and a detected neutrino signal. Development of efficient techniques for surveying flavor evolution solution spaces in these diverse environments, which augment and complement existing sophisticated computational tools, could leverage progress in this field. To this end we continue our exploration of statistical data assimilation (SDA) to identify solutions to a small-scale model of neutrino flavor transformation. SDA is a machine learning formula wherein a dynamical model is assumed to generate any measured quantities. Specifically, we use an optimization formulation of SDA wherein a cost function is extremized via the variational method. Regions of state space in which the extremization identifies the global minimum of the cost function will correspond to parameter regimes in which a model solution can exist. Our example study seeks to infer the flavor transformation histories of two monoenergetic neutrino beams coherently interacting with each other and with a matter background. We require that the solution be consistent with measured neutrino flavor fluxes at the point of detection, and with constraints placed upon the flavor content at various locations along their trajectories, such as the point of emission, and the locations of the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein resonances. We show how the procedure efficiently identifies solution regimes and rules out regimes where solutions are infeasible. Overall, results in this work intimate the promise of this “variational annealing” methodology to efficiently probe an array of fundamental questions that traditional numerical simulation codes render difficult to access.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nonparametric Inference for the Reproductive Rate in Generalized Compartmental Models

We develop a tractable nonparametric model for the time-varying reproductive rate of infectious diseases that combines the structure of a deterministic compartmental model and a stochastic model for incidence data. We use Bayesian inference to estimate, with uncertainty, the reproductive rate of the Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in the U.S. states of California, Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, New York, and Texas from January 2020 to March 2022. Employing the inferred reproductive rates, we estimate the posterior distribution of the time-varying reproduction numbers for each state. Compering the time-varying reproduction numbers across the states, we identify some epidemic waves, potentially driven from changes in human behavior and virus mutations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1989

Neutrinos from SN 1987A - Implications for cooling of the nascent neutron star and the mass of the electron antineutrino

Data on neutrinos from SN 1987A are compared here with parameterized models of the neutrino emission using a consistent and straightforward statistical methodology. The empirically measured detector background spectra are included in the analysis, and the data are compared with a much wider variety of neutrino emission models than was explored previously. It is shown that the inferred neutrino emission model parameters are strongly correlated. The analysis confirms that simple models of the neutrino cooling of the nascent neutron star formed by the SN adequately explain the data. The inferred radius and binding energy of the neutron star are in excellent agreement with model calculations based on a wide range of equations of state. The results also raise the upper limit of the electron antineutrino rest mass to roughly 25 eV at the 95 percent confidence level, roughly 1.5-5 times higher than found previously.

Loredo, Thomas J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ground Heat Flux Reconstruction Using Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Machinery and Surrogate Modeling

Ground heat flux (G 0 ) is a key component of the land-surface energy balance of high-latitude regions. Despite its crucial role in controlling permafrost degradation due to global warming, G 0 is sparsely measured and not well represented in the outputs of global scale model simulation. In this study, an analytical heat transfer model is tested to reconstruct G 0 across seasons using soil temperature series from field measurements, Global Climate Model, and climate reanalysis outputs. The probability density functions of ground heat flux and of model parameters are inferred using available G 0 data (measured or modeled) for snow-free period as a reference. When observed G 0 is not available, a numerical model is applied using estimates of surface heat flux (dependent on parameters) as the top boundary condition. These estimates (and thus the corresponding parameters) are verified by comparing the distributions of simulated and measured soil temperature at several depths. Aided by state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, the developed G 0 reconstruction approach provides novel means for assessing the probabilistic structure of the ground heat flux for regional permafrost change studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dispersion calibration for the National Ignition Facility electron–positron–proton spectrometers for intense laser matter interactions

Electron–positron pairs, produced in intense laser–solid interactions, are diagnosed using magnetic spectrometers with image plates, such as the National Ignition Facility Electron–Positron–Proton Spectrometers (EPPSs). Although modeling can help infer the quantitative value, the accuracy of the models needs to be verified to ensure measurement quality. The dispersion of low-energy electrons and positrons may be affected by fringe magnetic fields near the entrance of the EPPS. We have calibrated the EPPS with six electron beams from a Siemens Oncor linear accelerator (linac) ranging in energy from 2.7 MeV to 15.2 MeV as they enter the spectrometer. A Geant4 Tool for Particle Simulation Monte Carlo simulation was set up to match depth dose curves and lateral profiles measured in water at 100 cm source–surface distance. An accurate relationship was established between the bending magnet current setting and the energy of the electron beam at the exit window. The simulations and measurements were used to determine the energy distributions of the six electron beams at the EPPS slit. Furthermore, analysis of the scanned image plates together with the determined energy distribution arriving in the spectrometer provides improved dispersion curves for the EPPS.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗