SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model Sensitivity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2025

Topographic Slant Range Modeling and Fault Detection for Precision Planetary Landing

This work presents a novel landing site relative topographic measurement model for aslant range sensor being utilized for precision planetary landing operations. The measurement model accounts for the local terrain the slant range sensor captures and leverages knowledge of the estimated landing site provided by the navigation filter. Notably, in contrast to previous works, the new model does not rely on surface normal approximation, reducing the model’s sensitivity to noisy digital elevation maps which represent the local topography. In addition to the measurement model, this work introduces a novel fault detection method, denoted the probabilistic inspection of topographic filter altitude likelihood (PITFAL) algorithm, that implements a statistical outlier rejection algorithm. PITFAL is designed for multi-beam slant range sensors, such as the Navigation Doppler LIDAR (NDL), and identifies statistically inconsistent range estimates through a consensus check on the set of apparent altitudes computed for each individual beam. These models are numerically validated by the Safe and Precise Landing Capability Evolution (SPLICE) project’s high-fidelity terrestrial and lunar lander simulations.

Davis W Adams↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Validation of a Gas-Granular Flow Solver Using a Subscale, Reduced Pressure Plume Surface Interaction Ground Test

With NASA’s goal to land the next humans on the lunar surface in the next few years, it is vitally important to have a better understanding of the plume surface interaction (PSI) between the landing vehicles and the lunar regolith. The Fluid Dynamics Branch at NASA/MSFC has previously used the gas-granular flow solver Loci/GGFS to qualitatively predict crater formation due to PSI effects in a lunar (near vacuum) ambient environment. In this paper, validation of Loci/GGFS crater width and depth predictions in ambient near-lunar conditions are provided using experimental data collected at MSFC during the Physics-Focused Ground Test 1 (PFGT-1) campaign in 2022. To observe sensitivity to soil models, simulations were conducted with both monodisperse glass bead (MGB) and BP-1 lunar regolith simulant soil models in Loci/GGFS. Crater depth and width comparisons are made with PFGT-1 Run 56, which used BP-1 soil. The Loci/GGFS BP-1 soil model performed slightly better with a mean predicted crater depth within 10% of the experiment. Both soil models predicted crater width within 10%. Cratering occurred more quickly with the MGB soil model. Mesh and spatial order sensitivity are also examined for the BP-1 soil model.

Validation↗

NASA NTRS1994

Radiative-convective model with an explicit hydrologic cycle. 2: Sensitivity to large changes in solar forcing

The one-dimensional radiative-convective equilibrium model with an explicit hydrologic cycle introduced in part 1 is used to study the sensitivity of the model's atmosphere to large changes in the solar forcing, when various cumulus convection parameterizations are used. When the concentration of the absorbing as in the atmosphere is temperature dependent, equilibrium is impossible for values of the solar forcing larger than a critical value. This result is referred to as a runaway greenhouse. The cumulus convection parameterization schemes currently in use in global climate models (GCMs) employ different assumptions about moistening. This causes the critical solar forcing above which a runaway greenhouse occurs to be very sensitive to the cumulus convection scheme employed. Furthermore, we show that the sensitivity of the equilibrium temperature to changes in the solar forcing depends crucially on the microphysics of cumulus convection. For fixed cloud conditions, the critical forcing for a runaway greenhouse to occur is between approximately 1.22 and 1.49 times the global mean value for the Earth, and for clear sky conditions, it is a few percent lower. The runaway greenhouse in the experiments with the mass flux schemes generally occurs more rapidly than in the experiments with the adjustment schemes. In addition, the inability of the hard convective adjustment scheme to produce an efficient vertical transport of moisture, together with the saturation requirement for convection to occur, leads to the breakdown of the radiative-convective equilibria when other processes are not available to provide the necessary vertical transport of water vapor.

Renno, Nilton O.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Expected sensitivity of the Light Dark Matter eXperiment to long-lived dark photons and axion-like particles

The Light Dark Matter eXperiment (LDMX) is an electron-beam fixed-target experiment primarily designed to achieve world-leading, model-independent sensitivity to sub-GeV dark matter particles. LDMX aims to identify dark sector particle production through the detection of events with substantial missing energy and momentum, a signature of invisible particles escaping detection. Beyond this primary objective, LDMX offers a complementary search strategy for long-lived, visibly decaying particles, such as dark photons and axion-like particles. We present the first detailed evaluation of the ability of LDMX to identify visibly decaying, long-lived particles that couple to electrons using a detailed simulation, based on the Geant 4-toolkit, that incorporates realistic detection efficiencies and background levels. We demonstrate that LDMX can achieve a sensitivity that is competitive with other experiments that are currently running. The models explored in this paper are distinct and complementary to those probed in the LDMX flagship missing-momentum analysis. Through searching for both invisible dark matter and visibly decaying long-lived signatures, LDMX will significantly advance the search for light dark matter and provide a broad exploration of the sub-GeV dark sector.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

Akesson, Torsten [Lund U.] (ORCID:0000000341415408↗

NASA NTRS1986

Generalized parity relations for large space structures with uncertain parameters

The generalized parity relations method is a technique that can be used to detect sensor and actuator failures on a large space structure. A model of a grid structure was used to evaluate the performance of these relations. It shows their relative sensitivity to modeling errors. A method using sensor outputs and actuator inputs is required for the design of the generalized parity relations. Three different estimators are studied. The last estimator can generate relations optimized for the detection of a particular failure which are interesting when the level of sensor noise is high.

Dutilloy, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Variability↗

NASA NTRS2013

Pre-industrial to End 21st Century Projections of Tropospheric Ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337+/-23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is approx. 30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −4% (−16 %) for RCP2.6, 2% (−7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (−9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18 %) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40-150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications and a rigorous investigation of the factors that drive tropospheric ozone is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.

Troposphere↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrological Controls on Riverbed Methane Emissions: A Numerical Investigation of Hydrodynamic and Ebullitive Mechanisms from Site to Basin Scales

Methane production and emission from riverbed sediments constitute a significant yet underexplored component of the river methane budget. Despite their importance, a mechanistic and quantitative understanding of these processes under dynamic flow conditions remains elusive, particularly at the basin scale. In this study, we investigate the multiscale (site-to-basin) mechanisms governing methane emissions from riverbeds, focusing on the interplay between biogeochemical processes and hydrological dynamics. We developed a reactive transport model that integrates methane production with hydrodynamic and ebullitive pathways and coupled it with a basin-scale groundwater flow model to simulate methane emissions across scales. By incorporating key factors such as vertical hydrological exchange flow (VHEF), particulate organic carbon availability, sediment properties, and temperature sensitivity, our model captures the spatiotemporal variability of methane ebullition at both the site and basin scales. Our results reveal that methane ebullition is strongly modulated by VHEF, with lower flow rates promoting methane accumulation and subsequent ebullition. Sensitivity analyses underscore nonlinear responses of methane fluxes to environmental drivers. Furthermore, these findings emphasize the critical roles of sediment composition, hydrological exchange, and environmental conditions in shaping methane dynamics. Overall, this work advances our understanding of riverine methane emissions and offers insights for guiding climate models and mitigation strategies.

Fluxes↗

NASA NTRS2007

Improving Land-Surface Model Hydrology: Is an Explicit Aquifer Model Better than a Deeper Soil Profile?

Land surface models (LSMs) are computer programs, similar to weather and climate prediction models, which simulate the storage and movement of water (including soil moisture, snow, evaporation, and runoff) after it falls to the ground as precipitation. It is not currently possible to measure all of the variables of interest everywhere on Earth with sufficient accuracy. Hence LSMs have been developed to integrate the available information, including satellite observations, using powerful computers, in order to track water storage and redistribution. The maps are used to improve weather forecasts, support water resources and agricultural applications, and study the Earth's water cycle and climate variability. Recently, the models have begun to simulate groundwater storage. In this paper, we compare several possible approaches, and examine the pitfalls associated with trying to estimate aquifer parameters (such as porosity) that are required by the models. We find that explicit representation of groundwater, as opposed to the addition of deeper soil layers, considerably decreases the sensitivity of modeled terrestrial water storage to aquifer parameter choices. We also show that approximate knowledge of parameter values is not sufficient to guarantee realistic model performance: because interaction among parameters is significant, they must be prescribed as a harmonious set.

Gulden, L. E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Influence of sediment resuspension on deep-ocean Pa-231 and Th-230 cycling: A PROGRESS REPORT

The naturally-occurring particle-reactive radionuclides protactinium-231 (231Pa) and thorium-230 (230Th) are used as tracers of a variety of oceanic processes, both at present and in the past. Most notably, the sediment 231Pa/230Th ratio has been used to infer changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation over the last (de)glaciation. However, recent measurements along the U.S. GEOTRACES North Atlantic transect (GA03) revealed two features which are at odds with current understanding about 231Pa and 230Th behaviour in the ocean: (i) a sharp decrease in dissolved 231Pa and 230Th activities with depth below 2000-4000 m and (ii) very large particulate 231Pa and 230Th activities near the bottom, at a number of stations between the New England continental shelf and Bermuda. Concomitant measurements of particulate matter concentration and potential temperature showed that both features are associated with the benthic nepheloid layer (BNL) and the bottom mixed layer (BML) that are present at these stations. Here we develop and apply a simplified model of the exchange of particles, 231Pa, and 230Th between the BNL and the upper sediment, to explore the extent to which the radionuclide anomalies observed near the bottom at a number of GA03 stations can be explained by local sediment resuspension. We find that the model can broadly reproduce the observed anomalies at two stations where samples for radionuclide analyses were collected near the seafloor. Sensitivity tests with the model show that the 231Pa/230Th ratio of particles in the BML and the sediment varies by a factor of 3 as the sediment resuspension rate fluctuates within a range consistent with observational estimates. The modelled variability is comparable to the spatial variability of 231Pa/230Th of suspended particles in the modern North Atlantic and to the variability of Atlantic sediment 231Pa/230Th records across the last (de)glacial period. Two factors are found to contribute to the modelled sensitivity of the sediment 231Pa/230Th to sediment resuspension rate: the vertical turbulent mixing in the BML and the differential scavenging intensity of Pa and Th due to variation in particle concentration. Overall, our study indicates that the exchange of material between the BNL and the upper sediment can affect the particulate 231Pa/230Th ratio in the bottom water and the sediment, which may complicate the use of sediment 231Pa/230Th as a palaeoceanographic tracer.

particle-reactive radionuclides↗

NASA NTRS2000

Interactive Soil Dust Aerosol Model in the GISS GCM: Sensitivity of the Soil Dust Cycle to Radiative Properties of Soil Dust Aerosols - Part 1

The sensitivity of the soil dust aerosol cycle to the radiative forcing by soil dust aerosols is studied. Four experiments with the NASA/GISS atmospheric general circulation model, which includes a soil dust aerosol model, are compared, all using a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature as lower boundary condition. In one experiment, dust is included as dynamic tracer only (without interacting with radiation), whereas dust interacts with radiation in the other simulations. Although the single scattering albedo of dust particles is prescribed to be globally uniform in the experiments with radiatively active dust, a different single scattering albedo is used in those experiments to estimate whether regional variations in dust optical properties, corresponding to variations in mineralogical composition among different source regions, are important for the soil dust cycle and the climate state. On a global scale, the radiative forcing by dust generally causes a reduction in the atmospheric dust load corresponding to a decreased dust source flux. That is, there is a negative feedback in the climate system due to the radiative effect of dust. The dust source flux and its changes were analyzed in more detail for the main dust source regions. This analysis shows that the reduction varies both with the season and with the single scattering albedo of the dust particles. By examining the correlation with the surface wind, it was found that the dust emission from the Saharan/Sahelian source region and from the Arabian peninsula, along with the sensitivity of the emission to the single scattering albedo of dust particles, are related to large scale circulation patterns, in particular to the trade winds during Northern Hemisphere winter and to the Indian monsoon circulation during summer. In the other regions, such relations to the large scale circulation were not found. There, the dependence of dust deflation to radiative forcing by dust particles is probably dominated by physical processes with short time scales. The experiments show that dust radiative forcing can lead to significant changes both in the soil dust cycle and in the climate state. To estimate dust concentration and radiative forcing by dust more accurately, dust size distributions and dust single scattering albedo in the model should be a function of the source region, because dust concentration and climate response to dust radiative forcing are sensitive to dust radiative parameters.

Perlwitz, Jan↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Connection between Model Performance on the CCMVal Transport Diagnostics and Simulated Sensitivity of Ozone to Chlorine Change

The chemistry climate models that contributed simulations for past and future ozone evolution to the 2010 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion were subject to extensive evaluation by the SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) CCMVal (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation) activity. The sensitivity of ozone to changes in composition and climate varies among the models, but the relationship between these variations and the model evaluations of CCMVal is not obvious. We have learned that the transport evaluation can be used to interpret the comparisons between observed and simulated columns of chlorine reservoirs, hydrochloric acid (HCl) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2); these comparisons were part of the CCMVal evaluation of chemistry. The simulations with best performance on the transport diagnostics most faithfully reproduce the evolution and seasonal variation of the chlorine reservoirs as observed at NDACC (Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) stations (NyAlesund 78.9N, Kiruna 67.8N, Harestua 60.2N, Jungfraujoch 46.6N, Toronto 43.6N, Kitt Peak 31.9N, Izana 28.3N, Mauna Loa 19.5N, Lauder 45S and Arrival Heights 77.8S). In the simulations, the HCl in the lower stratosphere depends on total inorganic chlorine (Cly) and partitioning between HCl and ClON02. Total inorganic chlorine depends on the fractional release of chlorine from source gases, and ratio of ClON02 to HCl is inversely dependent on methane and varies quadratically with ozone. Simulated HCl from various models may agree with observations even though Cly is in error, partitioning is in error, or both. Simulated ozone sensitivity to chlorine is shown to be greater for models that produce larger values of chlorine nitrate for background chlorine levels, and vice versa. Comparisons with the NDACC data show why the models with 'best' transport have similar sensitivity to chlorine change. The realistic evolution of the simulated HCl and ClONO2 columns suggests realistic levels of Cly in the lower atmosphere. In addition, the wide range values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine obtained from the CCMVal simulations is explained by the wide range in lower atmospheric columns of ClONO2 and the concomitant wide range of levels for chlorine monoxide.

Douglass, Anne↗

NASA NTRS2021

Observational Constraint on Cloud Feedbacks Suggests Moderate Climate Sensitivity

Global climate models (GCMs) predict warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases, partly due to decreased tropical low-level cloud cover and reflectance. We use satellite observations that discriminate stratocumulus (Sc) from shallow cumulus (Cu) clouds to separately evaluate their sensitivity to warming and constrain the tropical contribution to low-cloud feedback. We find an observationally inferred low-level feedback two times smaller than a previous estimate. Cu are insensitive to warming whereas GCMs exhibit a large positive cloud feedback in Cu regions. In contrast, Sc show sensitivity to warming and the tropical inversion layer strength, controlled by the tropical Pacific SST gradient. Models fail to reproduce the historical SST gradient trends and therefore changes in inversion strength, generating an overestimate of the positive Sc cloud feedback. Continued weak east-Pacific warming would therefore produce a weaker low-cloud feedback and imply a more moderate climate sensitivity (3.47  0.33 K) than many models predict.

Cloud feedback↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Joint Search for Muon Neutrino Disappearance with the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program Using the SPINE Deep Learning-Based Reconstruction Package

We present the status of a joint search for muon neutrino disappearance in the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab using the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program's two-detector configuration, SBND and ICARUS. Charged-current interactions consistent with muon neutrinos and containing only a muon and at least one proton in the final state are reconstructed and selected using the SPINE deep learning-based particle reconstruction package. To exploit proton multiplicity information and enhance sensitivity to modeling effects, the selected sample is partitioned into exclusive channels with exactly one reconstructed proton and with more than one reconstructed proton. Comprehensive systematic uncertainties from the neutrino flux, interaction, and detector response are incorporated into the analysis, and the coverage of these systematic uncertainty models is validated using data from both detectors, including checks of near-far consistency in key kinematic and topology-sensitive observables. This analysis is intended for inclusion in SBN's first oscillation result.

Mueller, Justin [Fermilab]↗

NASA NTRS1974

Effect of screen-induced total-pressure distortion on axial-flow compressor stability

An experimental investigation was made to determine the effects of screen-induced total-pressure distortions on two J85-GE-13 turbojet engines. Results were compared to those from a previous program run with a third engine. All compressors were found to be sensitive to a critical angle of circumferential distortion equal to 60 deg., and they all adhered closely to the parallel compressor model. The sensitivity of compressor exit pressure to virtually any type of distortion pattern can be determined by defining stall lines for undistorted, hub radial distorted, and tip radial distorted inflows. The effect of multiple sectors of circumferential distortion is defined.

Calogeras, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

Alexander, Susan E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Reliability Analysis and Reliability-Based Design Optimization of Circular Composite Cylinders Under Axial Compression

This report describes the preliminary results of an investigation on component reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization of thin-walled circular composite cylinders with average diameter and average length of 15 inches. Structural reliability is based on axial buckling strength of the cylinder. Both Monte Carlo simulation and First Order Reliability Method are considered for reliability analysis with the latter incorporated into the reliability-based structural optimization problem. To improve the efficiency of reliability sensitivity analysis and design optimization solution, the buckling strength of the cylinder is estimated using a second-order response surface model. The sensitivity of the reliability index with respect to the mean and standard deviation of each random variable is calculated and compared. The reliability index is found to be extremely sensitive to the applied load and elastic modulus of the material in the fiber direction. The cylinder diameter was found to have the third highest impact on the reliability index. Also the uncertainty in the applied load, captured by examining different values for its coefficient of variation, is found to have a large influence on cylinder reliability. The optimization problem for minimum weight is solved subject to a design constraint on element reliability index. The methodology, solution procedure and optimization results are included in this report.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud↗

NASA NTRS1983

Developing sensitivity coefficients for a state variable model of a flexible spacecraft with modular attitude control

The numerical value for the sensitivity coefficient of each scalar state variable with respect to each parameter of a five body model of the rotational dynamics of a flexible spacecraft with modular attitude control is generated. The maximum magnitudes of these sensitivity coefficients are arranged in descending order in one table while the final time (steady state) values of these sensitivity coefficients are arranged in order of descending magnitude in a second table.

Chichester, F. D.↗