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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Earth System Reanalysis in Support of Climate Model Improvements

Recent climate model developments, established through increased model resolution, have led to substantial improvements in model simulations of the time-evolving, coupled Earth system and its subcomponents. However, regardless of resolution, climate models will always produce climate features and variability that differ from the real world and will be prone to biases. This is due to many remaining uncertainties, such as in parametric and structural model uncertainty, in the initial conditions prescribed, and in the prescribed (scenario) forcing which varies on decadal to centennial timescales. Further model improvements are expected to arise specifically from improved representation of physical processes realized through model-data fusion. This will create an unprecedented opportunity to better exploit a large array of Earth observations, from in situ measurements to weather radars and satellite observations, as the resolved scales of the models approach those of the observations. For this, climate DA will be the central tool to bring models and observations into consistency, by improving initial conditions, inferring uncertain model parameters and structure, and quantifying uncertainty. Generally, there will be advantages and complementarities of adjoint-based smoother approaches, ensemble-based filter approaches, or new ML-inspired approaches. Yet, the ever-increasing model resolution will present growing challenges arising from computational cost, calling for new ways of performing data assimilation and model optimization. Using the complementarity in a hybrid approach, blending tools and concepts from variational, ensemble and ML methods might be what is required in the future. In this context ML could be important to handle non-linear responses, and to better approximate non-Gaussian distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling–Experiment–Theory Analysis of Reactions Initiated from Cl + Methyl Formate

Methyl formate (MF; CH 3 OCHO) is the smallest representative of esters, which are common components of biodiesel. The present study characterizes the thermal dissociation kinetics of the radicals formed by H atom abstraction from MF—CH 3 OCO and CH 2 OCHO—through a combination of modeling, experiment, and theory. For the experimental effort, excimer laser photolysis of Cl 2 was used as a source of Cl atoms to initiate reactions with MF in the gas phase. Time-resolved species profiles of MF, Cl 2 , HCl, CO 2 , CH 3 , CH 3 Cl, CH 2 O, and CH 2 ClOCHO were measured and quantified using photoionization mass spectrometry at temperatures of 400–750 K and 10 Torr. The experimental data were simulated using a kinetic model, which was informed by ab initio-based theoretical kinetics calculations and included chlorine chemistry and secondary reactions of radical decomposition products. Here, we calculated the rate coefficients for the H-abstraction reactions Cl + MF → HCl + CH 3 OCO (R1a) and Cl + MF → HCl + CH 2 OCHO (R1b): k 1a,theory = 6.71 × 10 –15 ·T 1.14 ·exp(—606/T) cm 3 /molecule·s; k 1b,theory = 4.67 × 10 –18 ·T 2.21 ·exp(—245/T) cm 3 /molecule·s over T = 200–2000 K. Electronic structure calculations indicate that the barriers to CH 3 OCO and CH 2 OCHO dissociation are 13.7 and 31.6 kcal/mol and lead to CH 3 + CO 2 (R3) and CH 2 O + HCO (R5), respectively. The master equation-based theoretical rate coefficients are k 3,theory (P = ∞) = 2.94 × 10 9 ·T 1.21 ·exp(—6209/T) s –1 and k 5,theory (P = ∞) = 8.45 × 10 8 ·T 1.39 ·exp(—15132/T) s –1 over T = 300–1500 K. The calculated branching fractions into R1a and R1b and the rate coefficient for R5 were validated by modeling of the experimental species time profiles and found to be in excellent agreement with theory. Additionally, we found that the bimolecular reactions CH 2 OCHO + Cl, CH 2 OCHO + Cl 2 , and CH 3 + Cl 2 were critical to accurately model the experimental data and constrain the kinetics of MF-radicals. Inclusion of the kinetic parameters determined in this study showed a significant impact on combustion simulations of larger methyl esters, which are considered as biodiesel surrogates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forward sensitivity approach for estimating eddy viscosity closures in nonlinear model reduction

In this paper, we propose a variational approach to estimate eddy viscosity using forward sensitivity method (FSM) for closure modeling in nonlinear reduced order models. FSM is a data assimilation technique that blends model's predictions with noisy observations to correct initial state and/or model parameters. We apply this approach on a projection based reduced order model (ROM) of the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation with a square wave defining a moving shock, and the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation formulating a decay of Kraichnan turbulence. We investigate the capability of the approach to approximate an optimal value for eddy viscosity with different measurement configurations. Specifically, we show that our approach can sufficiently assimilate information either through full field or sparse noisy measurements to estimate eddy viscosity closure to cure standard Galerkin reduced order model (GROM) predictions. Therefore, our approach provides a modular framework to correct forecasting error from a sparse observational network on a latent space. We highlight that the proposed GROM-FSM framework is promising for emerging digital twin applications, where real-time sensor measurements can be used to update and optimize surrogate model's parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Developing Upscaling Approach for Swarming Hydraulic Fractures Observed at Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site through Multiscale Simulations

We show that this work aims to address a challenge posed by recent observations of tightly spaced hydraulic fractures in core samples from the hydraulic fracturing test site (HFTS) in the Middle Wolfcamp Formation. Many fractures in retrieved cores have subfoot spacing, which is at odds with conventional models in which usually one hydraulic fracture is initiated per cluster. Models assuming a single fracture at each cluster, although a common practice, often predict excessive fracture propagation that is inconsistent with microseismic observation. Here, we aim to develop a numerical approach to effectively account for densely spaced hydraulic fractures in field-scale simulations. Because it is impractical to explicitly model all aforementioned fractures, we develop a new upscaling law that enables existing simulation tools to predict reservoir response to fracture swarms. The upscaling law is derived based on an energy equivalence argument and validated through multiscale simulations using a high-fidelity code, GEOS. The swarming fractures are first modeled with a spacing that is much smaller than the cluster spacing; these fractures are then approximated by an upscaled, single fracture based on the proposed upscaling law. The upscaled fracture is shown to successfully match the energy input rate and produce the total fracture aperture and average propagation length of the explicitly simulated swarm. Afterward, the upscaling approach is further implemented in 3D field-scale simulations and validated against the HFTS microseismic data of a horizontal well. Our results show that hydraulic fracture swarming can significantly affect fracture propagation behaviors compared with the propagation of single fractures as assumed by conventional modeling approaches. Under the considered situations, the conventional treatment yields fast propagation speed that far exceeds that indicated by the microseismic data. We also illustrate that this discrepancy can be reduced readily through the implementation of the upscaling law. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for the fracture swarming effect in field-scale simulations and the efficacy of this approach to enable realistic predictions of reservoir responses to fracture swarms, without the need to model tightly spaced fractures individually.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Arctic Shrub Expansion, Plant Functional Trait Variation, and Effects on Belowground Carbon Cycling (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems are undergoing dramatic changes in response to climate warming, and these changes are expected to feedback to the atmosphere, potentially altering the trajectory of future climate change. Feedbacks from Arctic ecosystems are a major concern because the Arctic is projected to warm significantly in the 21 st century and because >50% of global belowground organic carbon is stored in permafrost and overlying soils. Warming-driven release of this carbon could drastically increase atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and accelerate climate warming. Plant communities are also responding to warming, as evidenced by the widely documented increase in woody-shrub growth and “greening” across much of the Arctic tundra biome. This vegetation shift may offset or amplify warming by altering carbon cycling. The direction and magnitude of shrub effects remain highly uncertain, however, due to limited understanding of the consequences of shrub expansion for belowground carbon cycling and simplification of these relationships in models. The major shrubs expanding in the Arctic (Betula, Salix, and Alnus) vary widely with respect to aboveground and belowground traits (e.g., tissue production and chemistry, rooting depth, microbial symbionts), and may also exhibit substantial intraspecific variation in these traits in response to environmental conditions. Such variation is likely to have profound implications for soil carbon cycling. The overarching goal of this project was to improve process-based understanding of the influence of shrub expansion on carbon cycling to enable improved representation of carbon dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. We investigated how plant functional traits vary among shrub genera, respond to environmental conditions, and affect belowground carbon and nutrient cycling by quantifying relationships among functional traits and biogeochemical cycling along edaphic gradients nested within a climate gradient in the Alaskan tundra. We found consistent differences in leaf and root traits among shrub genera and between shrubs and a widespread sedge species, indicating diverse nutrient acquisition strategies and belowground impacts among different arctic shrubs. We also found striking differences in trait values among individuals within the same species or genera within sites. Soil parameters were more important than climate parameters for predicting size and leaf trait variation, and root trait responses were less dependent on climate overall. For all but one root trait, including parameters representing aboveground traits improved the predictive ability of models. These results demonstrate that tundra shrub traits vary considerably at local scales and soil factors drive this variation, especially belowground. Furthermore, leveraging information about aboveground traits and soil conditions can improve predictions of how belowground traits will respond to climate change. Despite these differences, soil carbon and nitrogen pools in the active layer did not vary among plots dominated by different shrub or sedge genera. Instead, pool sizes generally decreased from warmer to colder sites, consistent with a productivity gradient. Patterns of isotopic N composition indicate that shrubs tighten nitrogen cycling via nitrogen resorption or immobilization of shrub litter. Overall, these results suggest that further identifying the specific shrub genera in the tundra landscape will ultimately provide better predictions of belowground dynamics across the changing arctic. We also performed simulation experiments with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) incorporated in the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework, treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We performed simulations across different types of tundra, including shrub tundra. One key finding was that both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter could vary within the same type of tundra, but in a different geographical location, such as over the climate gradient of shrub tundra described above. We organized a special session at the annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America in August 2019 to disseminate our results, refine recommendations for model improvement, and initiate collaborations to implement these recommendations in existing models of tundra carbon dynamics at ecosystem to Earth system scales. Our results support DOE near-term priorities by providing mechanistic insights into the role of vegetation change in the terrestrial carbon cycle in a region that is inadequately represented in Earth system models. Current models reduce the complexity of Arctic vegetation to a small number of plant functional types (PFTs). This approach implicitly assumes that each PFT represents the average ecological function of its constituent species, thus ignoring the effects of trait variation on biogeochemical cycling and potentially leading to large uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of ecosystem feedbacks to climate. By quantifying variation of plant functional traits across broad gradients of climatic and edaphic conditions and elucidating the linkages of such variation with carbon and nutrient cycling, our results illustrate the need and create a foundation for further developing trait-based modeling approaches that allow the traits of PFTs to vary as a function of environmental conditions. These approaches should improve the capacity of simulation models to offer insights into ecosystem carbon dynamics associated with novel plant communities in a rapidly changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

2014-2018 Summary of NCAR activities in the Earth Energy Exascale System Model (E3SM) project

NCAR participation in E3SM activities as part of this funded collaborative project has been successful in leveraging the existing atmosphere model development experience from CESM scientists and applying it to initial v1 atmosphere model (EAM) development and analysis. NCAR partners collectively had many decades of experience in parameterization development, running and tuning coupled models and building the required software infrastructure to support ongoing model developments. Furthermore, collaboration between E3SM and CESM developers was of mutual benefit to both modeling endeavors. In the earlier periods of the project, participation in E3SM both complemented core critical path DOE activities and advanced individual parameterization development; including orographic drag, convection parameterization, convective gustiness and cloud and microphysical processes. Significant progress has been made implementing model capabilities for separating out the physics and dynamics grids, and providing the infrastructure for including orographic elevation class communication between the land and atmosphere models. Our activities working with the E3SM workflow and software engineering teams have established efficient protocols and infrastructure for the sharing of CESM and E3SM model codes of interest to both modeling groups, a large component of which is the mutual communication of common code bugs. As well as these specific project tasks all NCAR project members have been regular participants in atmosphere and coupled group telecons, as well as PI meetings. We have been fully engaged with and contributed to decisions regarding v1 atmosphere model developments, coupled model simulations, model tunings, and software engineering infrastructure. NCAR’s contribution to more recent E3SM development activities has centered on analysis of v1 release and pre-release simulations in order to address outstanding systematic biases and communicate climate improvements. Of particularly note is the work in understanding clouds and cloud feedbacks, shortcomings in ENSO and sub-seasonal variability; in particular the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Contributions have been made to a number of papers that are currently published or in preparation detailing model performance in CMIP6-protocal experiments. They outline the simulations of mean climate, clouds and convection processes, convective gustiness, atmospheric blocking coupled climates. The contributions of NCAR’s funded activities to the E3SM atmosphere in the initial years of the project have had a positive impact on many aspects of the model simulations described in these papers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Integrating renewal process modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure: Application to Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) frequency estimations in nuclear power plants

Renewal process modeling is used for the failure prediction of hardware components under periodic maintenance. While most studies utilized data-driven approaches to estimate the input parameters for renewal process models, this paper initiates a line of research to integrate renewal process modeling with probabilistic models of underlying mechanisms associated with physical degradation and maintenance. At this stage of the research, the methodology integrates Markov modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) models of degradation, while maintenance is treated by a data-driven approach. This methodology is valuable to obtain a more accurate estimation of component reliability and availablity, especially when (i) components are highly reliable, and failure data are limited, (ii) historical data are unreliable due to changes in design, operation, and maintenance, or (iii) advanced technologies have emerged limiting operational data. The methodology explicitly incorporates the underlying spatiotemporal causes of failure into the renewal model, allowing to rank the criticality of causal factors to improve maintenance and mitigation strategies. Although the new methodology is applicable for component reliability and availability analysis in diverse industries, this report demonstrates its value for estimating frequencies of a Loss-Of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), which is an initiating event in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implementation and testing of physics-based pulverization model in BISON

This report summarizes lower length scale computational research conducted to improve the pulverization criterion for high-burnup UO 2 fuel in the BISON fuel performance code. This research was sponsored by the NEAMS program during FY22. Efforts to improve the model primarily focus on calculating the current pressure of bubbles in the high-burnup structure (HBS) region, as well as the critical bubble pressure at which pulverization occurs in the HBS. The phase-field model for predicting initial bubble pressure in the HBS was improved by implementing a more realistic model for defect production, and by coupling the phase-field model for inter-granular bubble evolution with the spatially-resolved cluster dynamics code Xolotl to simulate intra-granular fission gas evolution. An evolution equation for current bubble pressure was added to BISON, an improvement over the previous model that assumed that bubble pressure was static following HBS formation. To improve calculations of critical bubble pressure for pulverization, 3-D phase-field fracture simulations were performed, and a function for critical bubble pressure was fit—based on the simulation results—to replace the previous function, which had been determined using 2-D simulations. The impacts of these modifications to the existing pulverization assessment cases will be reported in the forthcoming engineering scale milestone on high-burnup UO 2 pulverization. A poromechanics-based approach was used to include the effect of bubble over pressurization on the stress state of the pellet at the engineering scale, and the initial strategy for integration of the pulverization criterion with pellet-scale mechanical degradation using a smeared cracking model was developed. This report also describes the initial research that was conducted to inform a forthcoming transient fission gas release (tFGR) model in BISON. Focusing on the fission gas release caused by pulverization of the outer pellet rim, a model for the amount of fission gas release was developed as a function of fuel porosity, bubble size, and fragment size. Implementation of this model in BISON and its impact of engineering-scale predictions will also be described in the aforementioned engineering-scale milestone on high-burnup UO 2 pulverization.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of ML-Based Proxy Modeling Strategies: Lessons Learned from the SMART Initiative

Teams of researchers on Task 5 of the SMART project have developed a variety of modeling architectures to predict subsurface behavior during carbon injection and post-injection periods. One important part of this task was to compare the candidate approaches in terms of accuracy, reliability, speed, and memory use, all using a common set of metrics and visualizations for an “apples to apples” comparison. Dr. Jared Schuetter will share the details of this task, the results that were obtained, and the lessons learned.

Schuetter, Jared↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupling Warm Rain With an Eddy Diffusivity/Mass Flux Parameterization: 2. Sensitivities and Comparison to Observations

Abstract This is the second part of the description and validation of the coupling of a warm‐rain microphysics scheme to a stochastic multi‐plume eddy‐diffusivity/mass‐flux parameterization. Part 1 provides the model description and initial validation of the parameterization in a single column model (SCM) against large eddy simulations. This manuscript provides additional comparisons against satellite observations of 500 unique simulation cases, an analysis of model parameter‐based sensitivities in those 500 cases, and an evaluation of the idealized LES case study paradigm for parameterization development. The SCM is forced by a weather reanalysis in the subtropical northeast Pacific region characterized by the stratocumulus‐to‐cumulus cloud transition. 18 scalar outputs are examined to identify the sensitivities to 22 of the model's parameters. The model is highly sensitive to parameters that determine the behavior of convective plumes, which collectively lead to the most sensitivity in 13 of the 18 outputs. Only a few parameters contribute sensitivities that are not highly correlated with those of other parameters. While forcing the model with two canonical field campaign cases results in similar picture of which parameters lead to high sensitivity in model outputs, the sensitivity magnitudes can be overestimated compared to when the model is forced by weather reanalyzes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Modeling of a 3D Printed Recuperator and Subsequent Experimental Loop for Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Cycles

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with mechanical-thermal energy storage (mTES) provider EarthEn, a US Department of Energy (DOE) Lab-Embedded Entrepreneurship Program (LEEP) recipient at ORNL’s Innovation Crossroads 2023, is utilizing a state-of-the-art patented 3D printing technique to design an additively manufactured (AM) supercritical CO2 (sCO2) recuperator (REC) for EarthEn’s charge/discharge cycle. The AM REC will be printed at ORNL’s Manufacturing Demonstration Facility using Inconel Alloy 718 and tested on a closed-loop, ∼100 kW scale experimental facility that is under construction. The testing will compare the printed design against a commercial-off-the-shelf Printed Circuit Heat Exchanger (PCHE) REC. The design of the sCO2 facility is guided by a Modelica-based system model which is primarily dependent on the open-source TRANSFORM library developed at ORNL and uses the open-source CoolProp library for thermophysical properties of sCO2 via the External Media library. It is envisioned that an iterative process will be followed between the physical loop and the system model wherein the initial experimental data will be used to tune the model, which in turn will be used to guide future loop operation. Simultaneously, the AM REC is being designed using computer-aided design models, and it is also being analyzed for hydraulic and thermomechanical response using commercial computational fluid dynamics software, Simcenter STAR-CCM+, on highperformance computing resources.1

See, Nate [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178581202)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stellar Mass and Stellar Mass-to-light Ratio–Color Relations for Low Surface Brightness Galaxies

We estimate the stellar mass for a sample of low surface brightness galaxies (LSBGs) by fitting their multiband spectral energy distributions (SEDs) to the stellar population synthesis model. The derived stellar masses (log M {sub *}/M {sub ⊙}) span from 7.1 to 11.1, with a mean of log M {sub *}/M {sub ⊙} = 8.5, which is lower than that for normal galaxies. The stellar mass-to-light ratio (γ*) in each band varies little with the absolute magnitude but increases with higher M {sub *}. This trend of γ* with M {sub *} is even stronger in bluer bands. In addition, the γ* for our LSBGs slightly declines from the r band to the longer-wavelength bands. The log γ{sub ∗}{sup j} (j = g, r, i, and z) have relatively tight relations with optical colors of g − r and g − i. Compared with several representative γ*–color relations (MLCRs) from the literature, our MLCRs based on LSBG data are consistently among those literature MLCRs previously defined on diverse galaxy samples, and the existing minor differences between the MLCRs are caused by the differences in the SED model ingredients (including initial mass function, star formation history, and stellar population model), line fitting techniques, galaxy samples, and photometric zero-point, rather than the galaxy surface brightness itself, which distinguishes LSBGs from high surface brightness galaxies. Our LSBGs would be very likely to follow those representative MLCRs previously defined in diverse galaxy populations, if those main ingredients were taken into account.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Re-calibration of PBX9501 SURF model

PBX 9501 is a plastic bonded explosive composed of 95 wt % HMX and a binder; see [Gibbs and Popolato, 1980, pp. 109–119]. SURF is a reactive burn model for shock initiation and propagation of detonation waves. It has previously been calibrated for PBX 9501. Here the SURF model is recalibrated for PBX 9501; specifically, lot 730-010 at ρ = 1.837 g/cc 3 . The new calibration uses the Davis reactants and products EOS calibrated for the AWSD model [Aslam et al., 2020]. The burn rate in the shock initiation regime is fit to the Pop plot from 5 embedded gauge shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) experiments from [Gustavsen et al., 1999, see fig 12 and table 5]. In the propagation regime, the burn rate is fit to curvature effect data (detonation speed as function of front curvature); see [Aslam, 2007]. Also the burn parameters are adjusted to fit the gap-stick experiment [Hill et al., 2018]. Simulating the detonation wave speed in this experiment requires a model that is accurate for initiation with complex shock loading; in particular, a pressure decreasing gradient behind a curved lead shock. This is more difficult than calibrating to the standard SDT experiments which are 1-D and driven by a sustained shock. Simulations of the gap-stick experiment for PBX 9501 with the SURF model will be discussed in a subsequent report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reverse Logistics Ev Battery Recycling Agent Base Model

This represents the initial regional tier of the electric vehicle (EV) battery recycling agent base model. Through this model, we can ascertain the number of EV purchases at both the state and regional levels. We employ census data to develop a diverse household profile to inform decisions regarding the acquisition of new or used EVs. The number of EV purchases at the state level will affect the future demand for recycling, reuse, and repurposing of end-of-life EV batteries. Additionally, tax credits, EV rebate programs, and the financial capacity of households will influence the number of EV purchases, thereby further impacting the demand for EV battery recycling.

Alam, Lamia [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Modeling of the Mechanical Response of Silicon Carbide Composite Within the Accelerated Fuel Qualification Framework

The accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ) framework has been used for the initial development of multiscale modeling of silicon carbide (SiC) fiber reinforced composite (SiC-SiC). The AFQ framework provides a methodology to leverage physics-informed multiscale modeling along with a reduced set of empirical test data to reduce the time and cost of licensing and qualification of new nuclear fuel systems while maintaining the overall nuclear power plant safety case. SiC-SiC is being proposed for in-core applications, most notably fuel cladding, for current and next-generation nuclear reactors because of its high temperature stability, irradiation tolerance, and ability to withstand many accident conditions. As these composites exhibit multiscale architectures and complex microstructure-based fracture mechanics, it is an appealing use case for the AFQ methodology. While the end goal of this work is a single multiscale model that can be used for predictive in-core performance, current focus is on the individual various length scale models. Four individual models have been initially developed from microscale to engineering system level to capture key physics-based effects across different length scales. These models include a microscale homogenized tow model, a mesoscale fast Fourier transform–based weave model that integrates the homogenized tow model, a mesoscale finite element–based weave model, and a system-level BISON fuel performance model. Results of these models have undergone an initial comparison with separate-effects test data showing a good match to experimental results. By using the AFQ framework during model development, several near-term benefits have been secured including a reduction in development time for the SiC-SiC cladding, more targeted irradiation testing, and a better understanding of uncertainty.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗