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DOE OSTI2019

Wind Energy Instrumentation Atlas

The US Department of Energy (DOE) A2e program is focused on developing the next generation of predictive tools to better understand wind plant performance and help industry lower the overall cost of energy. A formal verification and validation process is required to demonstrate improved accuracy of these new models beyond those currently employed. And a critical part of model validation is utilization of a diverse set of accurate observations of atmospheric forcing and wind plant response. A number of existing data sets that will be used for this purpose, as highlighted by Schreck and Maniaci (2017) but A2e researchers also realize that new datasets will be required to meet validation objectives. As such, plans for new experiments based on model validation priorities (NALU validation plan, 2017) are currently being developed. This document is intended to serve as a reference to experimental study planners that describes the capability, accuracy and resolution of existing and developing measurement technologies to observe quantities of interest for wind plant model validation. Such systems can be broken into two major categories: those that measure the flow field and surrounding atmosphere around and within a wind plant and those that measure the turbine response within the wind plant. The A2e validation team will use this catalogue of instrument capability in conjunction with the validation plan, to choose the optimal set of instruments to be deployed, inform instrument placement and operation and estimate the types of validation that may be gathered through new field campaigns. Where existing instrumentation is deficient, the document will also help guide DOE towards potential areas where instrumentation development is required to meet validation objectives and A2e technology development funding may be required. The domain of interest is the wind plant microscale, within and surrounding a single wind plant, typically, tens of kilometers on a side in horizontal directions and to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer (about 1km) in the vertical. Some observations of dominant mesoscale forcing phenomena are required, with the highest resolution measurements occurring in the wind turbine wakes and on the turbines themselves. The simulation tools to be validated are mesoscale driven large-eddy simulations of the atmosphere with full aeroelastic response of individual turbines within the plant. Use cases vary slightly among tool users, but should focus on the primary end customers of the simulations and research insights, which would be turbine manufacturers, wind plant developers and owners. Broadly speaking their interests are maximizing energy output, while maintaining turbine reliability and lifetime.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2003

Structured Uncertainty Bound Determination From Data for Control and Performance Validation

This report attempts to document the broad scope of issues that must be satisfactorily resolved before one can expect to methodically obtain, with a reasonable confidence, a near-optimal robust closed loop performance in physical applications. These include elements of signal processing, noise identification, system identification, model validation, and uncertainty modeling. Based on a recently developed methodology involving a parameterization of all model validating uncertainty sets for a given linear fractional transformation (LFT) structure and noise allowance, a new software, Uncertainty Bound Identification (UBID) toolbox, which conveniently executes model validation tests and determine uncertainty bounds from data, has been designed and is currently available. This toolbox also serves to benchmark the current state-of-the-art in uncertainty bound determination and in turn facilitate benchmarking of robust control technology. To help clarify the methodology and use of the new software, two tutorial examples are provided. The first involves the uncertainty characterization of a flexible structure dynamics, and the second example involves a closed loop performance validation of a ducted fan based on an uncertainty bound from data. These examples, along with other simulation and experimental results, also help describe the many factors and assumptions that determine the degree of success in applying robust control theory to practical problems.

Lim, Kyong B.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Role of Structural Models in the Solar Sail Flight Validation Process

NASA is currently soliciting proposals via the New Millennium Program ST-9 opportunity for a potential Solar Sail Flight Validation (SSFV) experiment to develop and operate in space a deployable solar sail that can be steered and provides measurable acceleration. The approach planned for this experiment is to test and validate models and processes for solar sail design, fabrication, deployment, and flight. These models and processes would then be used to design, fabricate, and operate scaleable solar sails for future space science missions. There are six validation objectives planned for the ST9 SSFV experiment: 1) Validate solar sail design tools and fabrication methods; 2) Validate controlled deployment; 3) Validate in space structural characteristics (focus of poster); 4) Validate solar sail attitude control; 5) Validate solar sail thrust performance; 6) Characterize the sail's electromagnetic interaction with the space environment. This poster presents a top-level assessment of the role of structural models in the validation process for in-space structural characteristics.

Johnston, John D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Burst pressure models and validations for thick-walled pipelines containing corrosion defects

Corrosion is one major threat to pipeline integrity. Over the past decades, many corrosion models have been developed for determining the remaining strength of corroded pipelines, including ASME B31.G, Modified B31.G, LPC, PCORRC and their modified models. All these corrosion models are applicable only to large diameter, thin-walled pipelines with a diameter to wall thickness ratio D/t ≥ 20. In practice, many pipelines have a small diameter and thick wall with a D/t ratio < 20, and thus an adequate corrosion model is needed for assessing remaining strength for corroded thick-walled pipelines. This paper briefly reviews the theoretical burst pressure models for defect-free thin and thick-walled pipelines and four representative corrosion assessment models for thin-walled corroded pipelines. On this basis, two modified corrosion models are proposed to thick-walled pipelines in terms of the average shear stress yield theory. To verify the proposed corrosion models, comprehensive validations are performed. Numerical validations include the elastic-plastic finite element analysis to determine burst pressure for pipelines without and with corrosion defects and the model evaluation using a large dataset of available FEA results of burst pressure for machined defects. Experimental validations include a set of burst pressure tests for defect-free thick-walled pipes with different thicknesses and the model evaluation using one large burst dataset for machined defects with flat bottoms and another large dataset for real corrosion defects with curved river bottom profiles. Both numerical and experimental validations show that the proposed corrosion models can more accurately predict the remaining strength for corroded thin and thick-walled pipelines.

Pipeline↗

NASA NTRS2008

CFD Modeling of Superheated Fuel Sprays

An understanding of fuel atomization and vaporization behavior at superheat conditions is identified to be a topic of importance in the design of modern supersonic engines. As a part of the NASA aeronautics initiative, we have undertaken an assessment study to establish baseline accuracy of existing CFD models used in the evaluation of a ashing jet. In a first attempt towards attaining this goal, we have incorporated an existing superheat vaporization model into our spray solution procedure but made some improvements to combine the existing models valid at superheated conditions with the models valid at stable (non-superheat) evaporating conditions. Also, the paper reports some validation results based on the experimental data obtained from the literature for a superheated spray generated by the sudden release of pressurized R134A from a cylindrical nozzle. The predicted profiles for both gas and droplet velocities show a reasonable agreement with the measured data and exhibit a self-similar pattern similar to the correlation reported in the literature. Because of the uncertainty involved in the specification of the initial conditions, we have investigated the effect of initial droplet size distribution on the validation results. The predicted results were found to be sensitive to the initial conditions used for the droplet size specification. However, it was shown that decent droplet size comparisons could be achieved with properly selected initial conditions, For the case considered, it is reasonable to assume that the present vaporization models are capable of providing a reasonable qualitative description for the two-phase jet characteristics generated by a ashing jet. However, there remains some uncertainty with regard to the specification of certain initial spray conditions and there is a need for experimental data on separate gas and liquid temperatures in order to validate the vaporization models based on the Adachi correlation for a liquid involving R134A.

Raju, M. S.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Cryogenic Tank Modeling for the Saturn AS-203 Experiment

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed for the Saturn S-IVB liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank to simulate the 1966 AS-203 flight experiment. This significant experiment is the only known, adequately-instrumented, low-gravity, cryogenic self pressurization test that is well suited for CFD model validation. A 4000-cell, axisymmetric model predicts motion of the LH2 surface including boil-off and thermal stratification in the liquid and gas phases. The model is based on a modified version of the commercially available FLOW3D software. During the experiment, heat enters the LH2 tank through the tank forward dome, side wall, aft dome, and common bulkhead. In both model and test the liquid and gases thermally stratify in the low-gravity natural convection environment. LH2 boils at the free surface which in turn increases the pressure within the tank during the 5360 second experiment. The Saturn S-IVB tank model is shown to accurately simulate the self pressurization and thermal stratification in the 1966 AS-203 test. The average predicted pressurization rate is within 4% of the pressure rise rate suggested by test data. Ullage temperature results are also in good agreement with the test where the model predicts an ullage temperature rise rate within 6% of the measured data. The model is based on first principles only and includes no adjustments to bring the predictions closer to the test data. Although quantitative model validation is achieved or one specific case, a significant step is taken towards demonstrating general use of CFD for low-gravity cryogenic fluid modeling.

Grayson, Gary D.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Comparing Satellite Rainfall Estimates with Rain-Gauge Data: Optimal Strategies Suggested by a Spectral Model

Validation of satellite remote-sensing methods for estimating rainfall against rain-gauge data is attractive because of the direct nature of the rain-gauge measurements. Comparisons of satellite estimates to rain-gauge data are difficult, however, because of the extreme variability of rain and the fact that satellites view large areas over a short time while rain gauges monitor small areas continuously. In this paper, a statistical model of rainfall variability developed for studies of sampling error in averages of satellite data is used to examine the impact of spatial and temporal averaging of satellite and gauge data on intercomparison results. The model parameters were derived from radar observations of rain, but the model appears to capture many of the characteristics of rain-gauge data as well. The model predicts that many months of data from areas containing a few gauges are required to validate satellite estimates over the areas, and that the areas should be of the order of several hundred km in diameter. Over gauge arrays of sufficiently high density, the optimal areas and averaging times are reduced. The possibility of using time-weighted averages of gauge data is explored.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validating Simulated Models of Energy Consumption by a Battery Electric Motorcoach: A real-world deployment in a harsh climate.

Many efforts have been made to simulate energy consumption of battery electric buses (BEBs) to optimize their deployment into existing fleets. The models produced, however, are rarely validated against real-world consumption data, limiting their generalizability and widespread application to fleets around the US. Furthermore, a major concern specific to BEBs is the effects of harsh climates on their performance. We build upon the state-of-the-art energy consumption modeling techniques developed for BEBs and apply them to a unique geographic context and a unique electrified vehicle. This geography, climate, and vehicle further the existing understanding of the factors affecting medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicles (MHDEVs) by allowing for new relationships to be tested and by assessing the generalizability of known relationships to new contexts. We find that temperature is less predictive of energy consumption for the battery electric motorcoach (BEM) in the case study environment than it is for BEBs in other studies. A mitigating factor that we presume to be working on the relationship between temperature and energy consumption is the fact that the BEM route does not stop between origin and destination to exchange passengers, and in turn, conditioned cabin air. Our model also incorporates wind speed and direction relative to travel, which is a novel contribution of our methodology. Results from our study are helpful for transit service planners, fleet operators, and logistics firms for improving their ability to predict performance of potential deployments of MHDEVs into existing operations.

32 - ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZA↗

DOE OSTI2020

FAST.Farm Development and Validation of Structural Load Prediction Against Large Eddy Simulations

FAST.Farm is a mid-fidelity engineering tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory targeted at accurately and efficiently predicting wind turbine power production and structural loading in wind farm settings, including wake interactions between turbines. FAST.Farm is based on several principles of the dynamic wake meandering (DWM) model, but also addresses limitations of previous DWM implementations. Previous FAST.Farm studies have shown the similarities and differences between FAST.Farm and large eddy simulations for rigid turbine cases. The objective of this work is to quantify the ability of FAST.Farm to accurately predict turbine structural response in a small wind farm. This is done by comparing FAST.Farm structural response to SOWFA-OpenFAST results for three laterally-aligned turbines. The purpose of this study is to characterize the similarities and differences between FAST.Farm and a higher fidelity model for predicting turbine structural response in a wind farm for differing atmospheric inflows. Strong statistical agreement was found between FAST.Farm and SOWFA-OpenFAST structural response for the non-waked upstream turbine, and good agreement was found for the downstream turbines for most structural quantities. Higher differences were seen for downstream turbines with low ambient turbulence intensity or yawed turbines, suggesting areas for FAST.Farm wake dynamics modeling improvements. For all cases and turbines, small statistical differences were seen between blade deflections and bending moments, with larger differences for tower-top and tower-base bending moments. Overall, the results establish confidence for applying FAST.Farm to wind farm power and loads analyses and identify areas where further model validations and model improvements should be targeted.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

DOE OSTI2020

BISON High Burnup Structure Modeling Capabilities Validated with a Selection of the Halden IFA-650 Rods

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS)program aims to develop predictive capabilities using computational methods for the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been supporting the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool at the engineering scale. This document continues analysis and refinement of capabilities added to BISON early this calendar year in regards to the incorporation of capabilities applicable to extended burnups in response to industry interest. Details are provided on high burnup thermal conductivity models, a refitting of the high-burnup structure (HBS) porosity formation model to include additional data, the coupling of the HBS volume fraction model to thermal conductivity and fine fragmentation models, and validation activities. The IFA-650.4 and IFA-650.9 loss of coolant accident (LOCA) analyses are revisited with the latest developments in this report. A new validation case, IFA-650.14 has also been added to the BISON test suite.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2024

Intermountain West Wildland Fires: Mapping Tree Mortality and Burn Patches using NASA Earth Observations to Determine Fire Risk and Inform Fire Management Practices

Within the intermountain west, monitoring fuel loads is a major concern for wildland fire management efforts. To address this concern, we partnered with the U.S. Forest Service to inform the agency which forested areas should be prioritized for prescribed burning and fuel reduction near human communities in the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming. We created burn maps, fuel load maps, and a tutorial document to identify forest impact trends and provide the partner with the tools to replicate project methods for expansion to other wildfire crisis strategy sites. These end products were made using two NASA Earth observations: Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Based on our random forest analysis, our maps identified 998 acres within the Wildland Urban Interface that are predicted to have high fuel loading and high burn severity within the Bridger-Teton National Forest. Forested areas closer to heavily populated areas such as Jackson, Kelly, Moran, New Forks Lake, and Star Valley Ranch should be prioritized for fuel reduction. However, our random forest model analysis was limited to using vegetation and topographical indices with no field data for model validation. Therefore, future studies should use field data for model validation to improve model accuracy and additionally incorporate Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation data into models to create better predictions of forested areas with high fuel load and high burn severity.

Remote Sensing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-scale dynamic modeling and validation of radial flow fixed bed contactors for post-combustion CO 2 capture using bench scale and pilot plant data

Here, in this work, a multi-scale model of a radial flow fixed bed contactor packed with a carbon sorbent is developed and validated with laboratory-scale and pilot plant scale dynamic data. For the lab scale system, the model results were compared with low, medium and high gas and sweep flowrates, yielding root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.80, 0.63, 0.96 CO 2 mol%, respectively, for the outlet CO 2 concentration profile considering the entire A-D cycle. For the bed outer temperature profile, maximum RMSE was found to be 5.5 °C considering all flowrates and entire A-D cycles. An experimental campaign was developed and applied to a pilot plant at Technology Center Mongstad (TCM), Norway. Approaches were developed for pre-processing of data including consideration of the effect of gas mixing, measurement delay, and determination of cyclic steady-state conditions. Considering profiles during A-D cycles for all test runs, it was found that the maximum RMSE for pressure drop, temperature for the outer section of the bed, temperature for the middle section of the bed, and outlet CO 2 concentration profile remained less than 1.5 mbar, 3.5 °C, 2.8 °C, and 1.3 CO 2 mol%, respectively. The validated model was used to perform sensitivity studies on several key design operating variables for the adsorption-desorption cycle. It was found that the flow rate and concentration of flue gas have dominant nonlinear effects on the breakthrough time while the desorption time was strongly affected by the sweep gas flowrate for the specific sorbent being evaluated in this study.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2009

Heat Transfer Modeling and Validation for Optically Thick Alumina Fibrous Insulation

Combined radiation/conduction heat transfer through unbonded alumina fibrous insulation was modeled using the diffusion approximation for modeling the radiation component of heat transfer in the optically thick insulation. The validity of the heat transfer model was investigated by comparison to previously reported experimental effective thermal conductivity data over the insulation density range of 24 to 96 kg/cu m, with a pressure range of 0.001 to 750 torr (0.1 to 101.3 x 10(exp 3) Pa), and test sample hot side temperature range of 530 to 1360 K. The model was further validated by comparison to thermal conductivity measurements using the transient step heating technique on an insulation sample at a density of 144 kg/cu m over a pressure range of 0.001 to 760 torr, and temperature range of 290 to 1090 K.

Daryabeigi, Kamran↗

NASA NTRS1996

Validation of an Experimentally Derived Uncertainty Model

The results show that uncertainty models can be obtained directly from system identification data by using a minimum norm model validation approach. The error between the test data and an analytical nominal model is modeled as a combination of unstructured additive and structured input multiplicative uncertainty. Robust controllers which use the experimentally derived uncertainty model show significant stability and performance improvements over controllers designed with assumed ad hoc uncertainty levels. Use of the identified uncertainty model also allowed a strong correlation between design predictions and experimental results.

Lim, K. B.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Business Intelligence Modeling in Launch Operations

This technology project is to advance an integrated Planning and Management Simulation Model for evaluation of risks, costs, and reliability of launch systems from Earth to Orbit for Space Exploration. The approach builds on research done in the NASA ARC/KSC developed Virtual Test Bed (VTB) to integrate architectural, operations process, and mission simulations for the purpose of evaluating enterprise level strategies to reduce cost, improve systems operability, and reduce mission risks. The objectives are to understand the interdependency of architecture and process on recurring launch cost of operations, provide management a tool for assessing systems safety and dependability versus cost, and leverage lessons learned and empirical models from Shuttle and International Space Station to validate models applied to Exploration. The systems-of-systems concept is built to balance the conflicting objectives of safety, reliability, and process strategy in order to achieve long term sustainability. A planning and analysis test bed is needed for evaluation of enterprise level options and strategies for transit and launch systems as well as surface and orbital systems. This environment can also support agency simulation .based acquisition process objectives. The technology development approach is based on the collaborative effort set forth in the VTB's integrating operations. process models, systems and environment models, and cost models as a comprehensive disciplined enterprise analysis environment. Significant emphasis is being placed on adapting root cause from existing Shuttle operations to exploration. Technical challenges include cost model validation, integration of parametric models with discrete event process and systems simulations. and large-scale simulation integration. The enterprise architecture is required for coherent integration of systems models. It will also require a plan for evolution over the life of the program. The proposed technology will produce long-term benefits in support of the NASA objectives for simulation based acquisition, will improve the ability to assess architectural options verses safety/risk for future exploration systems, and will facilitate incorporation of operability as a systems design consideration, reducing overall life cycle cost for future systems. The future of business intelligence of space exploration will focus on the intelligent system-of-systems real-time enterprise. In present business intelligence, a number of technologies that are most relevant to space exploration are experiencing the greatest change. Emerging patterns of set of processes rather than organizational units leading to end-to-end automation is becoming a major objective of enterprise information technology. The cost element is a leading factor of future exploration systems.

Bardina, Jorge E.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Model Verification and Validation Concepts for a Probabilistic Fracture Assessment Model to Predict Cracking of Knife Edge Seals in the Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Oxidizer

Physics-based models are routinely used to predict the performance of engineered systems to make decisions such as when to retire system components, how to extend the life of an aging system, or if a new design will be safe or available. Model verification and validation (V&V) is a process to establish credibility in model predictions. Ideally, carefully controlled validation experiments will be designed and performed to validate models or submodels. In reality, time and cost constraints limit experiments and even model development. This paper describes elements of model V&V during the development and application of a probabilistic fracture assessment model to predict cracking in space shuttle main engine high-pressure oxidizer turbopump knife-edge seals. The objective of this effort was to assess the probability of initiating and growing a crack to a specified failure length in specific flight units for different usage and inspection scenarios. The probabilistic fracture assessment model developed in this investigation combined a series of submodels describing the usage, temperature history, flutter tendencies, tooth stresses and numbers of cycles, fatigue cracking, nondestructive inspection, and finally the probability of failure. The analysis accounted for unit-to-unit variations in temperature, flutter limit state, flutter stress magnitude, and fatigue life properties. The investigation focused on the calculation of relative risk rather than absolute risk between the usage scenarios. Verification predictions were first performed for three units with known usage and cracking histories to establish credibility in the model predictions. Then, numerous predictions were performed for an assortment of operating units that had flown recently or that were projected for future flights. Calculations were performed using two NASA-developed software tools: NESSUS(Registered Trademark) for the probabilistic analysis, and NASGRO(Registered Trademark) for the fracture mechanics analysis. The goal of these predictions was to provide additional information to guide decisions on the potential of reusing existing and installed units prior to the new design certification.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Validating Irradiance Models for High-Latitude Vertical Bifacial Photovoltaic Systems

Bifacial photovoltaic systems oriented vertically facing east-west are an emerging design, targeting production in morning and afternoon hours and providing competitive annual energy yield to traditional south-tilted modules for high latitude locations. The accuracy of existing bifacial PV models when modules are oriented vertically has yet to be examined in detail. Here, we compare four bifacial PV irradiance models in ~150 locations between 15-80 degrees N on the utility-scale, finding higher inter-model deviations for vertical PV systems than south-tilted across all latitudes less than 75 degrees N. We validate model-predicted irradiance with test-site data collected in Golden, Colorado and Fairbanks, Alaska for E-W vertical and south-tilted arrays. View factor models agree with E-W vertical test-site data in Golden with RMSE=15%. Modelling error increases for the Alaskan test-site to RMSE values between 21-30%, driven in part by high albedo measurement uncertainty during snowy months.

bifacial↗

DOE OSTI2018

Model Evaluation Report for LNG Dispersion on Fire Dynamics Simulator Version 6.5.3

This report is an assessment of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), version 6.5.3, using the Model Evaluation Protocol (MEP) for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The MEP consists of model validation and a scientific assessment that encompasses model information and model verification activities. Model validation entails comparison against various field and wind-tunnel trials for LNG and other dense gases with and without obstructions. The results indicate that FDS is generally over-predictive for most of the field scale dense gas releases and cases involving obstructions without requiring a safety factor of 2, however, since there are uncertainties in extrapolating to accident scales a safety factor of 2 (1/2 LFL criteria) may be appropriate. The results of this scientific assessment and prior verification efforts demonstrate the soundness of the numerical techniques and robustness of FDS. The validation results indicate that FDS is suitable for modeling dense gas dispersion with and without obstructions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗