Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “N20140* --Chemistry--Analytical & Separations Chemistry”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

463 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

SAM Code Enhancements for Fission Product Tracking of Noble Gases and Metals in MSRs

This report documents fiscal year 2026 enhancements to the System Analysis Module (SAM) for modeling fission product transport in liquid-fueled molten salt reactors (MSRs). The work advances three principal areas: noble gas transport, noble metal deposition, and user interface improvements. The noble gas transport capability integrates drift-flux gas transport, Henry’s law two-film interphase mass transfer with pressure-based nucleation suppression, Knudsen-regime pore diffusion into porous graphite with a conjugate salt-graphite interface constraint, built-in material properties, five Sherwood-number mass transfer correlations including three derived from high-fidelity NekRS simulations, and xenon-135 reactivity feedback through SAM’s point-kinetics model. This work also presents a comprehensive verification test suite, including new analytically verified cases for pressure-dependent onset of interphase gas transfer in a stagnant vertical pipe, a postulated FLiBe-graphite Xe extraction permeator, a gravity riser with a fission-product source, and a descending pipe with gas redissolution driven by hydrostatic pressure. A machine learning framework for bubble rise velocity prediction in molten salt systems is developed and benchmarked on molten-salt and diverse aqueous bubble datasets. The best-performing fine-tuned transfer-learning networks achieve an 82% reduction in RMSE relative to the Clift correlation, and is implemented directly in SAM. The noble metal transport capability is developed, including a liquid-wall deposition model and a gas-surface flotation mechanism that transfers insoluble particles entrained by sparging gas to wetted structures. Verification tests and demonstration cases cover the surface deposition, flotation efflux, and flotation shedding. Finally, a new [SpeciesTransport] input structure replaces positional global vectors with selfcontained, order-independent, named species blocks, simplifies the specification of multiphase species and decay chains, and remains fully compatible with existing SAM input files. Together, these developments improve the physical fidelity, verification basis, and usability of SAM for system-level analyses of fissionproduct behavior in MSRs.

Mui, Travis (ORCID:0000000303736470)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reduced Order Models for Liquid Hydrogen Pooling and Vaporization Supported by Experiments

In the event of a leak of liquid hydrogen, a pool can form that vaporizes, disperses, and eventually dilutes to a non-flammable mixture. In this work, we describe fast-running models for the pooling and vaporization of liquid hydrogen in a steady cross-wind. Several pooling models from the literature are compared to solve for the flow and extent of the pool. The size of the pool can serve as the source for a separate dispersion model, which builds upon the existing one-dimensional Gaussian plume model in HyRAM+. Additional terms for the effects of a cross-wind on momentum and entrainment were added so that the model could handle the effects of a cross-wind on a low-speed flow. The models are compared to experimental data on pooling extent and downwind dispersion for steady flow rates of liquid hydrogen in a steady cross-wind. In the two compared experiments, liquid flow rates of 15 and 45 g/s were spilled onto concrete in cross-winds of approximately 1.8 m/s. The rate of growth of the pool and the downwind concentration boundaries are compared to the models, showing good agreement, although additional tuning is needed. These models can contribute to the advancement of codes and standards for liquid hydrogen systems.

dispersion↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-throughput micro-scale bandgap mapping for perovskite-inspired materials with complex composition space

Abstract To realize the full promise of high-throughput experimental workflows, the rate of sample synthesis must be matched by that of characterization. Of growing interest are contactless optical techniques that can rapidly measure material homogeneity and properties. Here, we present a hyperspectral imaging method to measure local optical bandgap distributions within samples, utilizing spatially-resolved reflectance spectra coupled with automated data analysis. We collect approximately one million optical bandgap data across the compositional space of Cs 3 (Bi x Sb 1-x ) 2 (Br y I 1-y ) 9 perovskite-inspired materials. Our results show non-monotonic bandgap variations (i.e., bandgap bowing) along six composition gradient sequences, in addition to identifying samples with multiple bandgaps in statistics. High-throughput transient absorption spectroscopy reveals that within these compositions, the depletion of the ground state carriers to excited states occurred at discrete energy levels with independent carrier dynamics, consistent with the bandgap observation and indicative of phase separation. This work demonstrates the potential for rapid optical measurements to assess material quality and homogeneity in a high-throughput experimental setting, supporting screening and recipe optimization of optoelectronic material candidates with desired carrier dynamics and optical properties.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap and Benchmarking: Privacy in Federated Load Forecasting

Data-driven techniques for energy demand forecasting continue to emerge with promising impacts on distribution grid planning. However, the development of robust and generalizable machine learning models requires that representative high quality training data are available. Distributed energy resources have begun to embed intelligence, gathering large amounts of data on customer demand, behavior, and household devices that are connected to the grid. Though utilities aggregate meter-level demand data for load shaping, demand response, outage management, reliability planning, and billing applications, there lies an inherent privacy concern in sharing consumption data that may identify individual consumer behavioral patterns. Hence, while sharing the data is crucial, the private sensitive customer data must be safeguarded from being exposed or manipulated. In this study, we propose a roadmap for implementing a based privacy preserving framework to support the advancement of data-driven analytics in data-sensitive distributed energy resources environments. The roadmap incorporates federated learning–a distributed training framework, differential privacy–a statistical framework that provides guarantees to safeguard the leakage of sensitive data, secure multiparty computation and homomorphic encryption– techniques for encrypting model gradients and applying secure aggregation on the server. Moreover, we perform baseline experiments on the federated short-term load forecasting (STLF) task using open-source residential load profile datasets, offering insights into the challenges of integrating differential privacy into federated learning.

Abebe, Waqwoya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Massive red spiral galaxies in SDSS-IV MaNGA survey

ABSTRACT Massive red spiral galaxies (MRSGs) are supposed to be the possible progenitors of lenticular galaxies (S0s). We select a large sample of MRSGs ($M_*\gt 10^{10.5}\rm {\rm M}_{\odot }$) from Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) DR17 using the g − r colour versus stellar mass diagram, along with control samples of blue spirals and S0s. Our main results are as follows: (1) After comparing the Sérsic index, concentration parameter, asymmetry parameter distribution, size–mass relation, and Σ1 (stellar mass surface density within the central 1 kpc)−mass relation, we find MRSGs are similar to S0s and have more compact and symmetric structures than blue spirals. MRSGs also resemble S0s in Dn4000, metallicity, Mgb/$\rm \left\langle Fe \right\rangle$, and V/σ radial profile. (2) By using MaNGA 2D spectra data, we separate the spatial regions into inner (R < 0.8Re) and outer (0.8 < R < 1.5Re) regions, and detect residual star formation in the outer regions of MRSGs. (3) When we select a sub-sample of MRSGs with NUV − r > 5, we find that they are completely star formation quenched in both inner and outer regions. Compared to optically selected MRSGs, NUV − r selected MRSGs appear to be more concentrated and have more massive dark matter haloes. The similarities between S0s and MRSGs suggest the possible evolutionary trend between MRSGs and S0s.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-range magnetic order and relaxor ferroelectricity in a hexagonal high-entropy ferrite

Multiferroics that combine ferroelectricity and magnetic order are attractive for electronic and spintronic technologies, yet chemical disorder that promotes relaxor ferroelectricity usually suppresses long-range magnetic order. Here, we report entropy-stabilized relaxor multiferroicity in epitaxial hexagonal (Tb0.2Dy0.2Ho0.2Lu0.2Yb0.2)FeO3 thin films. Structural, magnetic, dielectric, and synchrotron spectroscopic measurements show the coexistence of relaxor ferroelectricity and long-range ferromagnetic order. We find that improper ferroelectricity remains robust against A-site configurational disorder, while the Fe sublattice preserves magnetic exchange. This separation of the microscopic origins of the polar and magnetic responses enables chemically disordered multiferroicity. Our results establish entropy engineering in hexagonal ferrites as a route toward multifunctional oxide thin films and provide a general design strategy for high-entropy multiferroics.

Miertschin, Duncan [Baylor University]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Overcoming the Entropy Penalty of Direct Air Capture for Efficient Gigatonne Removal of Carbon Dioxide

Atmospheric carbon poses an existential threat to civilization via global climate change. Hundreds of gigatonnes of carbon dioxide must be removed from earth’s atmosphere in the next three decades, necessitating a low-cost, energy-efficient process to extract low concentrations of carbon dioxide for conversion to a stable material permanently stored for thousands of years. In this work, the challenge of removing gigatonnes of CO 2 is described via the scale of effort and the thermodynamics of collecting and reducing this diffuse chemical, the accumulation of which imparts a substantial entropy penalty on any atmospheric carbon capture process. The methods of CO 2 reduction combined with upstream direct air capture (DAC) including absorption, membrane separation, and adsorption are compared with biomass torrefaction and permanent burial (BTB). A Monte Carlo model assesses the mass, energy, and economics of the full process of biomass torrefaction from biomass collection and transport to stable carbon burial to determine that 95% of scenarios could remove carbon for less than $200 per CO 2 -tonne-equivalent. Torrefied carbon is further discussed for its long-term stability and availability at the scale required to substantially mitigate the threat of climate change.

biomass↗
DOE OSTI2026

Visualizing Millisecond Atomic Dynamics of Nanocrystals in Liquid

Atomic structures of nanomaterials are inherently dynamic and continuously reshaped through interactions with chemical species and external stimuli. Such dynamics are further amplified as the size and dimensionality of nanomaterials decrease. Despite advances in analytical methods, it remains challenging to capture the structural dynamics of nanomaterials in reactive environments with both atomic spatial resolution and commensurate temporal resolution. Here, in this study, we directly visualize atomic-scale dynamics of gold (Au) nanocrystals in reactive liquid environments with millisecond-speed liquid-cell electron microscopy (EM) and deep-learning denoising. We uncover reversible fluctuations in the local crystallinity of Au nanocrystals dependent on the surrounding chemical environment. These transient fluctuations, driven by interactions at nanocrystal–liquid interfaces, critically influence the dissolution kinetics and grain boundary relaxation. By overcoming the spatiotemporal limitations in conventional liquid-cell EM, our findings provide insights into how transient nanoscale structures dictate the stability and reactivity of nanomaterials.

Kang, Sungsu [University of Chicago, IL (United St↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fine-Grained Power and Energy Attribution on AMD GPU/APU-Based Exascale Nodes

Modern exascale GPU- and APU-based systems provide multiple power and energy sensors, but differences in scope, update rate, timing, and filtering complicate the attribution of short-lived accelerator activity. This paper presents a methodology to characterize and correct these effects on Cray EX systems with AMD Instinct MI250X GPUs (Frontier) and MI300A APUs (Portage). Using controlled square-wave workloads, we quantify update intervals, delay, aliasing, and variability across up to 512 GPUs and 480 APUs with on-chip (rocm-smi/amd-smi) and off-chip Cray Power Management sensors. We reconstruct power from cumulative energy counters to achieve faster response times, validate it against on-chip, off-chip, and node-level sensors, and integrate the resulting streams into a Score-P/PAPI-based tool for time-aligned, phase-level attribution. Applied to rocHPL, rocHPL-MxP, and HPG-MxP, the method separates energy savings due to reduced runtime from changes in power. Mixed precision reduces node energy on Frontier by 79% for rocHPL-MxP and 31% for HPG-MxP, with similar trends on Portage. These results provide portable guidance for sensor validation and power-aware optimization on current and future exascale systems.

Mcdaniel, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:000000016926028X)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiple Peaks and a Long Precursor in the Type IIn Supernova 2021qqp: An Energetic Explosion in a Complex Circumstellar Environment

Abstract We present optical photometry and spectroscopy of the Type IIn supernova (SN) 2021qqp. Its unusual light curve is marked by a long precursor for ≈300 days, a rapid increase in brightness for ≈60 days, and then a sharp increase of ≈1.6 mag in only a few days to a first peak ofM r ≈ −19.5 mag. The light curve then declines rapidly until it rebrightens to a second distinct peak ofM r ≈ −17.3 mag centered at ≈335 days after the first peak. The spectra are dominated by Balmer lines with a complex morphology, including a narrow component with a width of ≈1300 km s −1 (first peak) and ≈2500 km s −1 (second peak) that we associate with the circumstellar medium (CSM) and a P Cygni component with an absorption velocity of ≈8500 km s −1 (first peak) and ≈5600 km s −1 (second peak) that we associate with the SN–CSM interaction shell. Using the luminosity and velocity evolution, we construct a flexible analytical model, finding two significant mass-loss episodes with peak mass loss rates of ≈10 and ≈5M ⊙ yr −1 about 0.8 and 2 yr before explosion, respectively, with a total CSM mass of ≈2–4M ⊙ . We show that the most recent mass-loss episode could explain the precursor for the year preceding the explosion. The SN ejecta mass is constrained to be ≈5–30M ⊙ for an explosion energy of ≈(3–10) × 10 51 erg. We discuss eruptive massive stars (luminous blue variable, pulsational pair instability) and an extreme stellar merger with a compact object as possible progenitor channels.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exact block encoding of imaginary time evolution with universal quantum neural networks

We develop a constructive approach to generate quantum neural networks capable of representing the exact thermal states of all many-body qubit Hamiltonians. The Trotter expansion of the imaginary time propagator is implemented through an exact block encoding by means of a unitary, restricted Boltzmann machine architecture. Marginalization over the hidden-layer neurons (auxiliary qubits) creates the nonunitary action on the visible layer. Then, we introduce a unitary deep Boltzmann machine architecture in which the hidden-layer qubits are allowed to couple laterally to other hidden qubits. We prove that this wave-function is closed under the action of the imaginary time propagator and, more generally, can represent the action of a universal set of quantum gate operations. We provide analytic expressions for the coefficients for both architectures, thus enabling exact network representations of thermal states without stochastic optimization of the network parameters. In the limit of large imaginary time, the yields the ground state of the system. The number of qubits grows linearly with the number of interactions and total imaginary time for a fixed interaction order. Both networks can be readily implemented on quantum hardware via midcircuit measurements of auxiliary qubits. If only one auxiliary qubit is measured and reset, the circuit depth scales linearly with imaginary time and number of interactions, while the width is constant. Alternatively, one can employ a number of auxiliary qubits linearly proportional to the number of interactions, and circuit depth grows linearly with imaginary time only. Every midcircuit measurement has a postselection success probability, and the overall success probability is equal to the product of the probabilities of the midcircuit measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strong gradient neoclassical transport in the plateau regime

Strong gradient regions in tokamaks such as the pedestal or internal transport barriers are regions of reduced turbulence where neoclassical transport can play a dominant role. In pedestals, gradient lengths comparable to the ion poloidal gyroradius have been measured. Standard neoclassical theory can miss important strong gradient effects in these regions because it assumes that the gradient length scales of density, temperature and potential are larger than the ion poloidal gyroradius. We extend plateau regime neoclassical theory into regions of gradients of the order of the ion poloidal gyroradius to capture strong gradient effects on transport processes in the pedestal and internal transport barriers. The fundamental idea behind our new framework is to keep a scale separation between the orbit widths and the gradient length scales by performing a large aspect ratio expansion. In the plateau regime, strong gradients cause poloidal variation that is in–out as well as up–down asymmetric. We study two different test cases assuming either radial force balance or the absence of turbulence and show that strong gradient effects can enhance or reduce standard neoclassical theory predictions in the plateau regime in strong gradient regions.

fusion plasma↗
DOE OSTI2026

Secondary-Side Active Rectifier Synchronization and Control in LCC-LC Compensated Inductive Power Transfer Systems

This paper proposes a communication-less synchronization and output power control strategy for LCC-LC compensated inductive power transfer systems with a secondaryside active rectifier. By replacing the passive rectifier with an active bridge, the proposed architecture eliminates the need for a separate secondary-side DC-DC converter and enables direct regulation of battery power. The key challenge in such a system is achieving robust synchronization of the secondary active bridge with the primary inverter without access to primary-side signals. To address this issue, the secondary-side variables are analyzed and the current through the secondary series inductor is identified as a load-independent synchronization variable with a fixed phase relationship to the primary excitation. A fixed-frequency second order generalized (SOGI)-based phase locked loop (PLL) is used to estimate the switching phase and frequency, and a phase-shift-based output power controller is developed using a phasor-transformer model of the active bridges. A modified control formulation is further introduced to remove phase-dependent loop-gain variation and simplify controller design. Simulation results validate the proposed method under both fixed and varying switching-frequency conditions, demonstrating successful frequency tracking from 82 kHz to 88 kHz and accurate output power regulation over a wide operating range. The proposed method offers a compact and effective solution for high-power IPT systems by enabling secondary-side synchronization and control without wireless communication or an additional DC-DC conversion stage.

Fernandes, Arnold Anthony [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000631↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effect of spacer grids on high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal

Increasing the fuel burnup limit in light-water reactors to improve fuel cycle economics requires a strong technical foundation. Experimental observations from the Halden and Studsvik programs have revealed severe fuel fragmentation during loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions, highlighting the need for additional technical evaluation. Consequently, further LOCA test data are needed to complement existing findings and improve the understanding of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) behavior. Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Severe Accident Test Station has played a significant role in advancing the understanding of high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal phenomena. One remaining gap in the available experimental database is the effect of fuel assembly structural features on cladding deformation behavior during a LOCA, and more specifically, their impact on the fuel’s ability to fragment, relocate, and disperse. Recent analyses using the BISON fuel performance code suggest that cladding deformation near grid spacers will remain below the 3% threshold that has been reported in the NRC Research Information Letter, indicating that the cladding could remain mechanically constrained during the LOCA event. This paper builds upon the BISON analyses to design and conduct a series of out-of-cell tests aimed at further evaluating cladding deformation in and around grid spacers. In addition, these tests were used to assess local cladding temperature conditions and compare them against analytical predictions in order to better replicate expected in-reactor behavior. Finally, an in-cell high-burnup LOCA test was designed and performed to evaluate the effects of a grid spacer, or cladding restraint, on fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal susceptibility. The high-burnup test results differed from those of historical LOCA experiments, with a recorded rupture temperature of 861°C. Two ballooned regions and corresponding rupture openings were observed, with rupture widths of approximately 0.64 mm for both ruptures and rupture lengths of 4.8 mm and 5.6 mm, respectively.

Capps, Nathan [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2026

First-principles DFT modeling of nitrobenzene adsorption on the Ag(111) surface at varying monolayer coverages

Here, the adsorption behavior of nitrobenzene on the Ag(111) surface as a function of coverage is investigated using density functional theory. Adsorption energies and optimized geometries are analyzed together with isolated intermolecular interaction calculations and electronic structure analysis, including Bader charge partitioning and projected density of states, to disentangle the roles of adsorbate–surface bonding and through-space adsorbate–adsorbate interactions. At low and intermediate coverages (θ = 1/9 and θ = 2/9), bidentate adsorption at top sites is favored due to strong adsorbate–surface interactions, with additional stabilization at θ = 2/9 arising from favorable intermolecular separations. At higher coverage (θ = 1/3), bidentate adsorption is destabilized by strong intermolecular repulsion, and monodentate adsorption becomes energetically preferred as rotational freedom allows more favorable intermolecular spacing. Charge density differences, Bader charge, and density of states analyses show that charge transfer from the Ag surface is localized primarily on the nitro group and increases with coverage and adsorption denticity, although this increase does not directly correlate with adsorption strength at high coverage due to competing intermolecular interactions. These results demonstrate that surface coverage can induce a transition in preferred adsorption denticity driven by intermolecular interactions, highlighting the importance of adsorbate packing in organic molecule adsorption at metal interfaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Osmotic and phoretic competition explains chemotaxic assembly and sorting

Microscale objects responding to chemical gradients by migrating toward or away from a preferred species is a simple yet constitutive mechanism by which transport occurs in biological organisms. Synthetic chemotaxis provides key physical descriptions of simplified systems that can be used in biological models, or in the creation of advanced responsive material systems. In this article, we provide a quantitative framework for understanding synthetic chemotaxis of microparticles which involves a competition between phoresis and osmosis. We present separate quantitative measurements of phoresis and osmosis acting on individual taxing particles, finding that phoresis follows the long-predicted v ∼ 1 / r 2 scaling while the osmotic contribution depends on the geometry and details of the system, and must be solved on a case-by-case basis. Through this, we are able to develop a more accurate picture of particle transport at the single particle level. Equipped with this approach, we go on to describe how high concentrations of particles in a symmetric chemical gradient grow close-packed hives that reach a steady-state size tunable through light intensity or particle size. Last, we demonstrate that mixed particles experiencing the same chemical gradient will selectively migrate toward or away depending on the nature of the particle surface, thereby locally sorting out a particular species. We anticipate these results will be important in describing both biological and synthetic chemotaxis in phoretic systems and should bring a wealth of studies that take advantage of competing osmotic flows to illicit unexpected dynamic active behavior.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Novel Zwitterionic Polyurethane-in-Salt Electrolytes with High Ion Conductivity, Elasticity, and Adhesion for High-Performance Solid-State Lithium Metal Batteries

This study presents a novel polymer-in-salt (PIS) zwitterionic polyurethane-based solid polymer electrolyte (zPU-SPE) that offers high ionic conductivity, strong interaction with electrodes, and excellent mechanical and electrochemical stabilities, making it promising for high-performance all solid-state lithium batteries (ASSLBs). The zPU-SPE exhibits remarkable lithium-ion (Li+) conductivity (3.7 × 10⁻⁴ S cm−1 at 25 °C), enabled by exceptionally high salt loading of up to 90 wt.% (12.6 molar ratio of Li salt to polymer unit) without phase separation. It addresses the limitations of conventional SPEs by combining high ionic conductivity with a Li+ transference number of 0.44, achieved through the incorporation of zwitterionic groups that enhance ion dissociation and transport. The high surface energy (338.4 J m−2) and elasticity ensure excellent adhesion to Li anodes, reducing interfacial resistance and ensuring uniform Li+ flux. When tested in Li||zPU||LiFePO₄ and Li||zPU||S/C cells, the zPU-SPE demonstrated remarkable cycling stability, retaining 76% capacity after 2000 cycles with the LiFePO4 cathode, and achieving 84% capacity retention after 300 cycles with the S/C cathode. Molecular simulations and a range of experimental characterizations confirm the superior structural organization of the zPU matrix, contributing to its outstanding electrochemical performance. The findings strongly suggest that zPU-SPE is a promising candidate for next-generation ASSLBs.

Wang, Kun↗
DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗