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At least 415 records · Page 23

What can the GRACE seasonal cycle tell us about lake-aquifer interactions?

Lake-aquifer interactions have been the subject of investigation and debate for decades. Traditional investigation methods include measurement of water flux across the groundwater-surface water interface, application of heat and environmental tracer methods, conducting numerical simulations of the water flow, and mass balance-based approaches. We first review, evaluate and describe the different approaches that have been applied for examining lake-aquifer interactions and propose an additional complementary approach. While the leakage from lakes and its slow movement through porous media (laminar flow) is well characterized by existing methods, modeling the rapid and turbulent flow through preferred pathways (faults/karst) remains a challenging task. To better understand the nature, and the full scale, of the lake aquifer interactions, and using Lake Nasser and the underlying Dakhla subbasin of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) in the Western Desert of Egypt (area: 0.66 x 10 6 km 2 ) as a test site, we examine, model, and correlate temporally and spatially, the variations in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment terrestrial water storage (GRACE TWS ) solutions, with precipitation, lake levels, area, and water volume. We review current GRACE applications in hydrology and present our novel approach. Findings include: firstly, large seasonal fluctuations (peak: Nov./Dec.; trough: July/Aug.) in Lake Nasser's surface water levels (average annual fluctuations: from 3.7 m to 7.5 m), area (average area: 3622 km 2 but up to 4530 km 2 ), and volume (annual average: 13.4 km 3 , and up to 34 km 3 ) are observed throughout years 2006 to 2015. These fluctuations are accompanied by an increase in GRACE TWS (average: 50 ± 13 mm/yr, up to 77 ± 18 mm/yr) over Lake Nasser and by a progression of a front of increasing GRACE TWS values (> 50 ± 13 mm) away from the lake reaching distances of up to 700 km some 3 to 5 months following peak lake level periods. The areas witnessing the seasonal increase in GRACE TWS display a progressive increase in phase and decrease in amplitude with distance from the lake. Secondly, the negligible precipitation over the Dakhla subbasin cannot account for the observed seasonal GRACE TWS patterns and neither can the leakage signal from Lake Nasser. Thirdly, overall similarities in the distribution of GRACE TWS seasonal spatial patterns are observed. During high lake level periods (e.g., Dec. 2007; Feb. 2015) additional, and more distant, areas from Lake Nasser saw increases in GRACE TWS and vice versa during low lake level periods (e.g., July 2006; Aug. 2010). These observations are consistent with Lake Nasser being the main source of modern recharge for the Dakhla subbasin and suggest a new conceptual model for the subbasin: a slow groundwater flow through a porous matrix and a rapid groundwater flow along a network of faults, fractures, and karst topography across the matrix. We suggest that the proposed conceptual model for the interaction between Lake Nasser and the Dakhla subbasin could be applicable to aquifers of similar geologic, climatic, and hydrologic settings worldwide and that approaches similar to those advocated here could be used to investigate the validity of this suggestion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the diversity of the West African monsoon system change projected by CORDEX-CORE regional climate models

Understanding real uncertainties in projections is needed to support actions of decision and policy makers. In this study, two state-of-the-art regional climate models with ~ 25 km horizontal resolution forced with three different global climate models are employed to investigate the response of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system under the low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We make a step towards assessing the plausibility of rainfall change (ΔPr) patterns based on the models’ ability to realistically represent the WAM system under the historical period, and by analyzing changes in mechanisms associated with ΔPr patterns. Under global warming, experiments exhibit diverse ΔPr patterns underpinned by different combinations of mechanisms operating simultaneously. A dipole-like surface pressure change between the Sahara Desert and the Guinea Coast appears to be a differentiating factor between experiments featuring homogeneous or increased rainfall over all or a part of the Sahel from those simulating heterogeneous or reduced rainfall over the same domain. This dipole acts by modulating the amount and the extent of deepening of the monsoon flux inland, and hence the latitudinal positioning of the monsoon convective system. This process contributes to moistening the whole or central and eastern Sahel in some experiments while drying the Guinea Coast. The West African Westerly Jet (WAWJ) is responsible for strengthening and moistening the western Sahel under RCP2.6. However, the WAMJ becomes much stronger under RCP8.5 and may have contributed to the drying of the western Sahel by shifting moisture eastwards in addition to the mid-tropospheric moisture divergence through enhanced African Easterly Jet. Furthermore, for experiments expecting wetting (drying) of the Sahel, the strengthening (weakening) of the tropical easterly jet may have contributed to the projected intensification (reduction) of WAM rainfall by favoring uplift (downlift) above 600 hPa. It also emerges that the ΔPr patterns from REMO2015 experiments are likely more plausible than those from RegCM4-v7. The impacts of strong warming on the regional hydrological cycle are further investigated and we found that changes gradually intensify with the level of radiative forcing, highlighting the importance of mitigating warming as recommended by the Paris agreement.

CORDEX-CORE↗

Dissection of the angle of single fluorophore attached to the nucleotide in corkscrewing microtubules

Direct dissection of the angles of single fluorophores under an optical microscope has been a challenging approach to study the dynamics of proteins in an aqueous solution. For angle quantifications of single substrates, however, there was only one report (Nishizaka et al., 2014) because of difficulties of construction of experimental systems with active proteins working at the single-molecule level. We here show precise estimation of orientation of single fluorescent nucleotides bound to single tubulins that comprise microtubule. When single-headed kinesins immobilized on a glass surface drive the sliding of microtubules, microtubules show corkscrewing with regular pitches (Yajima et al., 2005 & 2008). We found, by using a three-dimensional tracking microscope, that S8A mutant kinesin also showed precise corkscrewing with a 330-nm pitch, which is 13% longer than that of the wild type. The assay with the mutant was combined with a defocused imaging technique to visualize the rotational behavior of fluorescent nucleotide bound to corkscrewing microtubule. Notably, the defocused pattern of single TAMRA-GTP periodically changed, precisely correlating to its precession movement. The time course of the change in the fluorophore angle projected to the xy-plane enabled to estimate both the fluorophore orientation against microtubule axis and the precision of angle-determination of analyses system. The orientation showed main distribution with peaks at∼40°, 50° and 60°. To identify their molecular conformations, the rigorous docking simulations were performed using an atomic-level structure modeled by fitting x-ray crystal structures to the cryo-electron microscopy map. Among isomers, 2′-O-EDA-GDP labeled with 5- or 6-TAMRA were mainly specified as possible candidates as a substrate, which suggested the hydrolysis of TAMRA-GTP by tubulins. - Highlights: • The mutant of single-headed kinesin drives the corkscrewing of microtubules with a longer pitch. • Orientation of single fluorescent GTP on rotating microtubule was measured by defocused imaging. • The orientation showed the distribution with peaks at∼40°, 50° and 60° against microtubule axis. • Docking simulation reveals possible molecular conformations and state of nucleotide on tubulin.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

End of Green Sahara amplified mid- to late Holocene megadroughts in mainland Southeast Asia

Between 5 and 4 thousand years ago, crippling megadroughts led to the disruption of ancient civilizations across parts of Africa and Asia, yet the extent of these climate extremes in mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has never been defined. This is despite archeological evidence showing a shift in human settlement patterns across the region during this period. We report evidence from stalagmite climate records indicating a major decrease of monsoon rainfall in MSEA during the mid- to late Holocene, coincident with African monsoon failure during the end of the Green Sahara. Through a set of modeling experiments, we show that reduced vegetation and increased dust loads during the Green Sahara termination shifted the Walker circulation eastward and cooled the Indian Ocean, causing a reduction in monsoon rainfall in MSEA. Our results indicate that vegetation-dust climate feedbacks from Sahara drying may have been the catalyst for societal shifts in MSEA via ocean-atmospheric teleconnections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Moiré assisted fractional quantum Hall state spectroscopy

Intra-Landau level excitations in the fractional quantum Hall regime are not accessible via optical absorption measurements. Here we point out that optical probes are enabled by the periodic potentials produced by a moire pattern. Our observation is motivated by the recent observations of fractional quantum Hall incompressible states in moire-patterned graphene on a hexagonal boron nitride substrate, and is theoretically based on f-sum rule considerations supplemented by a perturbative analysis of the influence of the moire potential on many-body states.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Artificial Diversity and Defense Security (ADDSec) Final Report

Critical infrastructure systems continue to foster predictable communication patterns and static configurations over extended periods of time. The static nature of these systems eases the process of gathering reconnaissance information that can be used to design, develop, and launch attacks by adversaries. In this research effort, the early phases of an attack vector will be disrupted by randomizing application port numbers, IP addresses, and communication paths dynamically through the use of overlay networks within Industrial Control Systems (ICS). These protective measures convert static systems into "moving targets," adding an additional layer of defense. Additionally, we have developed a framework that automatically detects and defends against threats within these systems using an ensemble of machine learning algorithms that classify and categorize abnormal behavior. Our proof-of-concept has been demonstrated within a representative ICS environment. Performance metrics of our proof-of-concept have been captured with latency impacts of less than a millisecond, on average.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessing the Influence of Background State and Climate Variability on Tropical Cyclones Using Initialized Ensembles and Mesh Refinement in E3SM

The scientific goal of this project is to assess the influence of the background state and horizontal resolution of climate models on the simulation of extreme events like intense precipitation, tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and heatwaves. The main results are: - Initialized ensembles of 4-week forecasts using a climate model (E3SM) show that dynamic (flow) and thermodynamic (moisture) biases asymptote to their climatological values at different rates—dynamic bias grows rapidly and approaches its climatological value within about 2 weeks whereas the thermodynamic bias takes about 4 weeks. - Moisture bias has a bigger impact on extreme events like tropical cyclones and intense precipitation than flow bias, and this impact is non-monotonic over bias evolution time. - Climate models are capable of simulating the flow features associated with unprecedented extreme events like the Western North America heatwave of June 2021, but moisture biases can weaken the surface manifestation of extreme heatwaves. Reducing model bias may be more important than increasing model resolution in improving the fidelity of heatwave simulations in climate models. - Climate models are capable of simulating weather patterns associated with “power droughts”, i.e., periods with low solar and wind power generation, provided model biases in the simulation of the background state can be corrected. - Regional mesh refinement can improve the simulation of extreme weather events but model biases may still persist.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

BlueCRAB Domain Overlapping Coupling: Theory & Verification

Coupling low- and high-fidelity codes is a useful way to model complex engineering systems. Thanks to the high-fidelity code, complex phenomena can be resolved in areas of the system where this is required, yet the efficiency of the lower-fidelity code is still retained in modeling the rest of the system. This document details the theory and implementation of coupling two different thermal-hydraulic codes: the system thermal-hydraulics (STH) code System Analysis Module (SAM) and the coarse-mesh computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code Pronghorn. Both applications are included in the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle (BlueCRAB) code suite and are based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework. The domain overlapping (DO) coupling approach was adopted, as it offers proven advantages over more conventional domain decomposition methods. In the DO coupling, SAM provides Pronghorn with boundary conditions that depend on the system-level simulation of the entire plant. In return, the overlapping coupled SAM components–termed “surrogate components”–receive friction factors and source terms computed online based on the Pronghorn simulation. The framework is designed to be generic and enable coupling regardless of geometry and the number of inlet/outlet boundaries in the DO coupled domain. The developed method leads to consistent pressure drops, enthalpies, and scalar concentrations when comparing the coupled SAM and Pronghorn simulations. This document presents the DO coupling approach, along with two verification and two demonstration cases. The proposed problems explore different physical aspects relevant to nuclear reactor analysis, including buoyancy-driven flows, complex flow patterns, and multiple inlets and outlets. Periodically, new versions of this “BlueCRAB Domain Overlapping Coupling: Theory & Verification” report will be issued to reflect future developments and verification tests.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of the hazard from exposure to electron irradiation simulating that in the synchronous orbit

The electron spectrum predicted for the synchronous orbit was simulated to determine the effects that might occur to astroscientists exposed to such irradiation while on a prolonged space station mission in that region. Miniature pigs were exposed to monoenergetic and spectral-fractionated irradiations with 0.5 to 2.1 MeV electrons. Clinical and pathological alterations observed in biopsies were correlated with depth-dose pattern and length of post irradiation period up to one year. With monoenergetic electrons, the lowest dose causing a recognizable lesion was 1450 rad and with increasing dose lesions appeared earlier and were more severe. At the highest dose given, 2650 rad, ulceration extending into the dermis was present by twenty one days and required about four months for complete healing. Spectral-fractionated irradiations, in which the total dose range was essentially comparable to that of the monoenergetic series, resulted in very minimal outer dermis edema at 1790 rad and at no dose employed did necrosis of epidermis or ulceration into dermis occur.

Lippincott, S. W.↗

ERTS-1 investigation of wetlands ecology

The author has identified the following significant results. Data from aircraft can be used for large scale mapping where detailed information is necessary, whereas Landsat-1 data are useful for rapid mapping of gross wetland boundaries and vegetative composition and assessment of seasonal change plant community composition such as high and low growth forms of Spartina alterniflora, Juncus roemarianus, and Spartina cynosuroides. Spoil disposal and wetland ditching activities may also be defined. Wetland interpretation is affected by tidal stage; drainage patterns are more easily detected at periods of low water. Species discrimination is easier at periods of high water during the growing season; upper wetland boundaries in fresh water tidal marshes are more easily delineated during the winter months when marsh vegetation is largely dead or dormant. Fresh water discharges from coastal streams may be inferred from the species composition of contiguous wetlands.

Anderson, R. R.↗

Soil moisture from temperature measurements at the Earth's surface, update

Soil moisture budgets at the Earth's surface were investigated based on soil and atmospheric temperature variations. A number of data sets were plotted and statistically analyzed in order to accentuate the existence and the characteristics of mesoscale soil temperature extrema variations and their relations to other parameters. The correlations between diurnal temperature extrema for air and soil in drought and non-drought periods appear to follow different characteristic patterns, allowing an inference of soil moisture content from temperature data. The recovery of temperature extrema after a precipitation event also follows a characteristic power curve rise between two limiting values which is an indicator of evaporation rates. If these indicators are applied universally to regional temperature data, soil moisture content or drought conditions can be inferred directly from temperature measurements.

Welker, J. E.↗

Determination of galactic cosmic ray latitudinal gradient using Earth based detectors

Using cosmic ray intensity data from the Deep River Neutron monitor and the relation between solar wind velocity and heliomagnetic latitude, an attempt is made to evaluate quantitatively the latitudinal gradient of cosmic ray intensity during the periods dominated by a two sector pattern. Assuming a constant orientation of the heliospheric current sheet on a time scale of the order of a year, a relationship is determined between cosmic ray intensity and heliomagnetic latitude.

BADRUDDIN↗

Flare build-up study - Homologous flares group. I

Solar Maximum Mission observations have been used to study the origin and amount of energy, mechanism of storage and release, and conditions for the occurrence of solar flares, and some results of these studies as they pertain to homologous flares are briefly discussed. It was found that every set of flares produced 'rafales' of homologous flares, i.e., two, three, four, or more flares separated in time by an hour or less. No great changes in macroscopic photospheric patterns were observed during these flaring periods. A quantitative brightness parameter of the relation between homologous flares is defined. Scale changes detected in the dynamic spectrum of flare sites are in good agreement with a theoretical suggestion by Sturrock. Statistical results for different homologous flare active regions show the existence in homologous flaring areas of a 'pivot' of previous filaments interpreted as a signature of an anomaly in the solar rotation.

Martres, M.-J.↗

Polar convection patterns under quiet conditions

Convection electric field patterns at high latitudes appropriate to periods of low geomagnetic activity are presented. The postulate that the global Joule dissipation rate is a minimum is employed to derive characteristic field distributions for the situation when ring current ohmic losses are negligible and the auroral oval enhancement of height-integrated Hall conductivity is small. The fast Fourier transform is introduced to compute Fourier coefficients of discrete field-aligned current data, and the method is shown to be quite useful in this context as a least squares fitting routine. The model calculations demonstrate the approach of the high-latitude ionosphere toward the perfect shielding configuration predicted by the theory for quiet times.

Barbosa, D. D.↗

Prediction of monthly 700 mb heights using simulated medium-range numerical forecasts

Standardized 700 mb heights at 126 grid points over the Northern Hemisphere during 1948-80 were used to quantify the persistence of the heights from one month to the next (using various antecedent period lengths) and to determine predictive skill for calendar-month 700 mb heights using antecedent and simulated prognostic height information. The calculations showed that optimum period length and its corresponding average pattern correlation vary widely over the course of the year, being largest in summer and winter. The skill of models using simulated prog heights was found to be much superior to those using antecedent heights.

Harnack, R.↗

Interactions of form and orientation

It is well known that the orientation of an optical pattern relative to egocentric or extraneous references affects its figural quality, that is, alters its perceived form and concomitantly delays or quickens its identification (Rock 1973). A square presented in the frontal plane to an upright person (S), for instance, changes from a box to a diamond when it is rotated with respect to the S's median plane by 45 deg. This angle, that is, the angle between the orientations of the pattern in which the two apparent figures (Gestalten) attain a summit of purity and distinctness, will be called the figural disparity of the pattern. If, as in this case, the S is upright, the retinal meridian and the subjective vertical (SV) are both in the viewer's median plane. The question arises with respect to which of these orientation references the two figures are identified. The answer may be found when the pattern and the S are oriented in such a way that the projections of the retinal meridian and the SV into the plane of the pattern diverge by the pattern's figural disparity or its periodic multiples: that is, in this case of a square by 45 or 135 deg, respectively. Similarly, which reference determines whether an equilateral triangle is seen as a pyramid or a traffic warning sign may be revealed at a divergence of SV and retinal meridian of 60 or 180 deg, respectively. It is generally found that for head roll tilts (Rho) and figural disparities of up to 90 deg, the figure whose axis coincides with the SV is seen. At head tilts of Rho=180 deg, however, the retinal reference dominates, as a rule independently of the figural disparity.

Mittelstaedt, Horst↗

Intraseasonal oscillations in the global atmosphere. II - Southern Hemisphere

A systematic examination of oscillatory modes in the global atmosphere is completed by studying 12 years of 500 mb geopotential heights in the Southern Hemisphere. The data were band-pass filtered to focus on intraseasonal (IS) phenomena, and spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were obtained. The leading principal components were subjected to singular spectrum analysis in order to identify nonlinear IS oscillations with high statistical confidence. In the Southern Hemisphere, the dominant mode has a period of 23 days, with spatial patterns carried by the second and third winter EOF of the IS band. It has a zonal wavenumber-four structure. The 40-day mode is second, and is dominated by wavenumbers three and four, while a 16-day mode is too weak to separate its spatial behavior from the previous two. The IS dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere is more complex and dominated by shorter wavenumbers than the Northern Hemisphere. No statistically significant correlations between the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics or the Northern Hemisphere are apparent in the IS band.

Ghil, Michael↗