Modeling the Large and Small Orbital Debris Populations for Environment Remediation
No abstract available
Liou, J. -C.↗
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Influence of Population Variation of Physiological Parameters in Computational Models of Space Physiology
The earliest manifestations of Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome become evident after months of spaceflight and include a variety of ophthalmic changes, including posterior globe flattening and distension of the optic nerve sheath. Prevailing evidence links the occurrence of VIIP to the cephalic fluid shift induced by microgravity and the subsequent pressure changes around the optic nerve and eye. Deducing the etiology of VIIP is challenging due to the wide range of physiological parameters that may be influenced by spaceflight and are required to address a realistic spectrum of physiological responses. Here, we report on the application of an efficient approach to interrogating physiological parameter space through computational modeling. Specifically, we assess the influence of uncertainty in input parameters for two models of VIIP syndrome: a lumped-parameter model (LPM) of the cardiovascular and central nervous systems, and a finite-element model (FEM) of the posterior eye, optic nerve head (ONH) and optic nerve sheath. Methods: To investigate the parameter space in each model, we employed Latin hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficient (LHSPRCC) strategies. LHS techniques outperform Monte Carlo approaches by enforcing efficient sampling across the entire range of all parameters. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity of model outputs to these parameters while adjusting for the linear effects of all other inputs. The LPM analysis addressed uncertainties in 42 physiological parameters, such as initial compartmental volume and nominal compartment percentage of total cardiac output in the supine state, while the FEM evaluated the effects on biomechanical strain from uncertainties in 23 material and pressure parameters for the ocular anatomy. Results and Conclusion: The LPM analysis identified several key factors including high sensitivity to the initial fluid distribution. The FEM study found that intraocular pressure and intracranial pressure had dominant impact on the peak strains in the ONH and retro-laminar optic nerve, respectively; optic nerve and lamina cribrosa stiffness were also important. This investigation illustrates the ability of LHSPRCC to identify the most influential physiological parameters, which must therefore be well-characterized to produce the most accurate numerical results.
biomechanics↗
Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Population change is a main driver behind global environmental change, including urban land expansion. In future scenario modeling, assumptions regarding how populations will change locally, despite identical global constraints of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), can have dramatic effects on subsequent regional urbanization. Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1 km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The population projections included: (1) newer downscaled state-specific population (SP) projections inclusive of updated international and domestic migration estimates, and (2) prevailing downscaled national-level projections (NP) agnostic to localized demographic processes. Our work shows that alternative population inputs, even those under the same SSP, can lead to dramatic and complex differences in urban land outcomes. Under the SP projection, urbanization displays more of an extensification pattern compared to the NP projection. This suggests that recent demographic information supports more extreme urban extensification and land pressures on existing rural areas in the US than previously anticipated. Urban land outcomes to population inputs were spatially variable where areas in close spatial proximity showed divergent patterns, reflective of the spatially complex urbanization processes that can be accommodated in SELECT. Although different population projections and assumptions led to divergent outcomes, urban land development is not a linear product of population change but the result of complex relationships between population, dynamic urbanization processes, stages of urban development maturity, and feedback mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variations in the population projections, but also urbanization process to accurately project long-term urban land patterns.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Determining Partial Atomic Charges for Liquid Water: Assessing Electronic Structure and Charge Models
Partial atomic charges provide an intuitive and efficient way to describe the charge distribution and the resulting intermolecular electrostatic interactions in liquid water. Many charge models exist and it is unclear which model provides the best assignment of partial atomic charges in response to the local molecular environment. In this work, we systematically scrutinize various electronic structure methods and charge models (Mulliken, natural population analysis, CHelpG, RESP, Hirshfeld, Iterative Hirshfeld, and Bader) by evaluating their performance in predicting the dipole moments of isolated water, water clusters, and liquid water as well as charge transfer in the water dimer and liquid water. Although none of the seven charge models is capable of fully capturing the dipole moment increase from isolated water (1.85 D) to liquid water (about 2.9 D), the Iterative Hirshfeld method performs best for liquid water, reproducing its experimental average molecular dipole moment, yielding a reasonable amount of intermolecular charge transfer, and showing modest sensitivity to the local water environment. The performance of the charge model is dependent on the choice of the density functional and the quantum treatment of the environment. The computed molecular dipole moment of water generally increases with the percentage of the exact Hartree–Fock exchange in the functional, whereas the amount of charge transfer between molecules decreases. For liquid water, including two full solvation shells of surrounding water molecules (within about 5.5 Å of the central water) in the quantum chemical calculation converges the charges of the central water molecule. Furthermore, our final pragmatic quantum chemical charge-assigning protocol for liquid water is the Iterative Hirshfeld method with M06-HF/aug-cc-pVDZ and a quantum region cutoff radius of 5.5 Å.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
A partially collisional model of the Titan hydrogen torus
Occasional collision effects are encompassed by the present numerical model of atomic hydrogen densities in Titan's hydrogen torus, which is noted to be azimuthally symmetric; the torus density peaks sharply at Titan's orbit, and rapidly decreases in the both radially outward and perpendicular directions. Collisions of Saturnian atoms with the torus population produce a corona. Without this coronal population, the torus model would not reproduce the Voyager 2 Lyman-alpha intensities. These observations may nevertheless be modelled by a torus-plus-corona model that also reconciles the Pioneer 11 torus observations with those of the two Voyager spacecraft.
Hilton, Douglas A.↗
Micrometeoroid Events in LISA Pathfinder
The zodiacal dust complex, a population of dust and small particles that pervades the solar system, provides important insight into the formation and dynamics of planets, comets, asteroids, and other bodies. We present a new set of data obtained from direct measurements of momentum transfer to a spacecraft from individual particle impacts. This technique is made possible by the extreme precision of the instruments flown on the LISA Pathfinder spacecraft, a technology demonstrator for a future space-based gravitational wave observatory. Pathfinder employed a technique known as drag-free control that achieved rejection of external disturbances, including particle impacts, using a micropropulsion system. Using a simple model of the impacts and knowledge of the control system, we show that it is possible to detect impacts and measure properties such as the transferred momentum, direction of travel, and location of impact on the spacecraft. In this paper, we present the results of a systematic search for impacts during 4348 hr of Pathfinder data. We report a total of 54 candidates with transferred momenta ranging from 0.2 to 230 μNs. We furthermore make a comparison of these candidates with models of micrometeoroid populations in the inner solar system, including those resulting from Jupiter-family comets (JFCs), Oort Cloud comets, Halley-type comets, and asteroids. We find that our measured population is consistent with a population dominated by JFCs, with some evidence for a smaller contribution from Halley-type comets, in agreement with consensus models of the zodiacal dust complex in the momentum range sampled by LISA Pathfinder.
Thorpe, J. I.↗
Simulation of Continental Shallow Cumulus Populations Using an Observation-Constrained Cloud-System Resolving Model
Continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) clouds observed on 30 August 2016 during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign are simulated by using an observation-constrained cloud-system resolving model. On this day, ShCu forms over Oklahoma and southern Kansas and some of these clouds transition to deeper, precipitating convection during the afternoon. We apply a four-dimensional ensemble-variational (4DEnVar) hybrid technique in the Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system to assimilate operational data sets and unique boundary layer measurements including a Raman lidar, radar wind profilers, radiosondes, and surface stations collected by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to ascertain how improved environmental conditions can influence forecasts of ShCu populations and the transition to deeper convection. Independent observations from aircraft, satellite, as well as ARM's remote sensors are used to evaluate model performance in different aspects. Several model experiments are conducted to identify the impact of data assimilation (DA) on the prediction of clouds evolution. The analyses indicate that ShCu populations are more accurately reproduced after DA in terms of cloud initiation time and cloud base height, which can be attributed to an improved representation of the ambient meteorological conditions and the convective boundary layer. Extending the assimilation to 18 UTC (local noon) also improved the simulation of shallow-to-deep transitions of convective clouds.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors
Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.
Bayesian statistics↗
The Chicago Social Interaction Model (ChiSIM)
ChiSIM is a framework for implementing agent-based models that simulate the mixing of a synthetic population. In a ChiSIM based model, each agent, that is, each person in the simulated population, resides in a place (a household, dormitory or retirement home/long term care facility, for example), and moves among other places such as workplaces, homes, clinics, and community resources. Agents typically move between places according to their domain specific activity profile, such that each agent has a profile that determines at what times throughout the day they occupy a particular location. Once in a place, an agent mixes with other agents in some model or domain-specific way. For example, an agent may expose other agents to a disease in an epidemiological model.
Ozik, Jonathan↗
Predicting the Evolution of Shallow Cumulus Clouds With a Lotka‐Volterra Like Model
Abstract In numerical weather prediction and climate models, boundary‐layer clouds are controlled by a wide range of subgrid‐scale processes. However, understanding the nature of these processes and their role in the evolution of the cloud size distribution as a whole has been elusive. To address this issue, we adopt a novel empirical framework from the field of population dynamics to model the evolution of cloud size statistics by using the shallow cumulus properties obtained from a large‐eddy simulation (LES). Our approach involves representing the cloud size distribution and the total cloud area using a revised Lotka‐Volterra model and ridge linear model, respectively. The physical interpretation of the total cloud area and coefficients obtained from the optimization of the models reveals three stages probably interpreted by dominant processes: the formation of new clouds, the growth of single clouds, and a steady state with organized transitions involving the growth and decay of multiple clouds. Furthermore, we showcase the potential of this framework to serve as a component of scale‐aware parameterizations of shallow‐convective clouds in atmospheric models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Induced population gradients in galaxy merger remnants
We use numerical models to investigate the nature of induced population gradients in merger remnants. As noted by White, we find that the population mixing in stellar-dynamical mergers is rather moderate, leading to metallicity gradients in the remnant that are closely tied to gradients in the progenitor galaxies. Furthermore, the resultant metallicity gradients are poorly fitted by power laws, showing significant nonlinearities within an effective radius. If constant metallicity bulges are added to the progenitor disks, the strong relation between final and initial metallicity gradients is diluted, but the final gradients are still not well fitted by power laws. Detailed studies of the shape of the metallicity gradients in elliptical galaxies should help determine the degree to which stellar-dynamical mergers have contributed to the population of present-day ellipticals. We also consider the effects of centrally concentrated starbursts on metallicity gradients. Using simple models for metallicity enhancement, we find that addition of a metal-rich starburst population can reproduce the magnitude and shape of metallicity gradients observed in elliptical galaxies. However, even in such cases the metallicity gradients in the merger remnant should steepen significantly beyond an effective radius. Modelling such merger-induced starbursts with population synthesis techniques, we find that if the starburst is characterized by solar metallicity, it should be detectable as a bluing of the nuclear regions for several Gyr. However, if the starburst is metal-rich, the reddening effects of higher metallicity makes the broad-band signature of the starburst much more difficult to detect.
Mihos, J. Christopher↗
Validating CAR - A comparison study of experimentally-derived and computer-generated reach envelopes
In the present investigation, Crewstation Assessment of Reach (CAR) results in the form of male hand reach envelopes were generated and compared with an anthropometric survey performed by Kennedy (1978) to determine the extent of the validity of the CAR model with respect to experimentally-derived anthropometric data. The CAR-generated reach envelopes extensively matched the Kennedy envelopes. The match was particularly good in the areas to the front and side from which the reach originated. Attention is given to the crewstation model, the operator sample population, the CAR analysis, aspects of validation methodology, and the modeling of experimental parameters.
Harris, R.↗
Carbon Monoxide Accumulation in the Extravehicular Mobility Unit
Introduction: Life support technology in large closed systems like submarines and space stations catalyzes carbon monoxide (CO) to carbon dioxide, which is easily removed. However, in a small system like the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU), spacesuit, CO from exogenous (contaminated oxygen (O (sub 2) supply) and endogenous (human metabolism) sources will accumulate in the free suit volume. The free volume becomes a sink for CO that is rebreathed by the astronaut. The accumulation through time depends on many variables: the amount absorbed by the astronaut, the amount produced by the astronaut (between 0.28 and 0.34 moles per hour per kilogram)[1], the amount that enters the suit from contaminated O (sub 2), the amount removed through suit leak, the free volume of the suit, and the O (sub 2) partial pressure[2], just to list a few. Contamination of the EMU O (sub 2) supply with no greater than 1 part per million CO was the motivation for empirical measurements from CO pulse oximetry (SpCO) as well as mathematical modeling of the EMU as a rebreather for CO. Methods: We developed a first-order differential mixing equation as well as an iterative method to compute CO accumulation in the EMU. Pre-post measurements of SpCO (Rad-57, Masimo Corporation) from EMU ground training and on-orbit extravehicular activities (EVAs) were collected. Results: Initial modeling without consideration of the astronaut as a sink but only the source of CO showed that after 8 hours breathing 100 percent O (sub 2) with a 10 milliliter per minute (760 millimeters Hg at 21 degrees Centigrade standard) suit leak, an endogenous production rate of 0.23 moles per hour per kilogram for a 70 kilogram person with 42 liters (1.5 cubic feet) free suit volume resulted in a peak CO partial pressure (pCO) of 0.047 millimeters Hg at 4.3 pounds per square inch absolute (222 millimeters Hg). Preliminary results based on a 2008 model[3] with consideration of the astronaut as a sink and source of CO suggests that most of the rebreathed CO stays bound to hemoglobin and myoglobin and; therefore, pCO only increased to 0.002 millimeters Hg in the EMU. Hemoglobin saturation after 8 hours was an insignificant 0.4 percent compared to about 4 percent for cigarette smokers in the general population. This preliminary modeling result supplements 11 pre-post index finger SpCO measurements from EMU ground training (mean 0.5 percent versus 1 percent, probability equal to 0.41 from paired t-test) and 10 on-orbit pre-post EVAs (mean 1.5 percent versus 1.1 percent, probability equal to 0.17 from paired t-test) that showed no consistent increase, at least no increase outside the accuracy of the oximeter (1 percent display resolution with plus or minus 3 percent Standard Deviation). Discussion: Simulations continue, but a preliminary conclusion is that rebreathing endogenous CO accumulating in the EMU is not a serious medical issue during EVA. The absence of CO poisoning signs or symptoms following hundreds of EVAs is also good empirical evidence that corroborates the limited SpCO measurements and preliminary modeling results.
Conkin, J.↗
Uncertainties in Atomic Data and Their Propagation Through Spectral Models. I.
We present a method for computing uncertainties in spectral models, i.e., level populations, line emissivities, and emission line ratios, based upon the propagation of uncertainties originating from atomic data.We provide analytic expressions, in the form of linear sets of algebraic equations, for the coupled uncertainties among all levels. These equations can be solved efficiently for any set of physical conditions and uncertainties in the atomic data. We illustrate our method applied to spectral models of Oiii and Fe ii and discuss the impact of the uncertainties on atomic systems under different physical conditions. As to intrinsic uncertainties in theoretical atomic data, we propose that these uncertainties can be estimated from the dispersion in the results from various independent calculations. This technique provides excellent results for the uncertainties in A-values of forbidden transitions in [Fe ii]. Key words: atomic data - atomic processes - line: formation - methods: data analysis - molecular data - molecular processes - techniques: spectroscopic
linear sets↗
Non-thermal O/1D/ produced by dissociative recombination of O2/+/ - A theoretical model and observational results
Thermal and nonthermal O(1D) number density profiles are calculated. The two populations are assumed to be coupled by a thermalization cross-section which determines the loss and production in the nonthermal and thermal populations, respectively. The sources, sinks and transport of the two populations are used to model volume emission rate profiles at 6300 A. The 6300 A brightness measured by the Visible Airglow Experiment is then used to establish the presence of the nonthermal population and to determine the thermalization cross-section.
Schmitt, G. A.↗
Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California
Quantifying the responses of forest disturbances to climate warming is critical to our understanding of carbon cycles and energy balances of the Earth system. The impact of warming on bark beetle outbreaks is complex as multiple drivers of these events may respond differently to warming. Using a novel model of bark beetle biology and host tree interactions, we assessed how contemporary warming affected western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis) populations and mortality of its host, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), during an extreme drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, United States. When compared with the field data, our model captured the western pine beetle flight timing and rates of ponderosa pine mortality observed during the drought. In assessing the influence of temperature on western pine beetles, we found that contemporary warming increased the development rate of the western pine beetle and decreased the overwinter mortality rate of western pine beetle larvae leading to increased population growth during periods of lowered tree defense. We attribute a 29.9% (95% CI: 29.4%–30.2%) increase in ponderosa pine mortality during drought directly to increases in western pine beetle voltinism (i.e., associated with increased development rates of western pine beetle) and, to a much lesser extent, reductions in overwintering mortality. These findings, along with other studies, suggest each degree (°C) increase in temperature may have increased the number of ponderosa pine killed by upwards of 35%–40% °C-1 if the effects of compromised tree defenses (15%–20%) and increased western pine beetle populations (20%) are additive. Due to the warming ability to considerably increase mortality through the mechanism of bark beetle populations, models need to consider climate's influence on both host tree stress and the bark beetle population dynamics when determining future levels of tree mortality.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
TOWARDS RAPID RESPONSE UPDATES OF POPULATIONS AT RISK
Understanding population at risks has been a focus of the LandScan program through its development of population estimates. With advancements in computer vision, deep learning technologies and access to High Performance Computing (HPC) and high resolution imagery, population estimates are now modeled at the building level. However, when those patterns are disrupted, rapid updates to population distribution estimates are needed to support humanitarian aid and response. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recently adapted an existing deep learning building footprint extraction model in development of a scalable approach to Building Damage Assessments (BDA). This new opportunity opens the possibility of automating BDA to support rapid population distribution estimate updates for geographic areas involved in geopolitical conflicts or natural events for humanitarian aid and response or where to focus recovery efforts. In addition, incorporate social surveys to further model human behavior under conflict or other scenarios that disrupt normal patterns of life.
Urban, Marie↗
Enhanced Multi-Modal Access to Planetary Exploration
Tomorrow's Interplanetary Network (IPN) will evolve from JPL's Deep-Space Network (DSN) and provide key capabilities to future investigators, such as simplified acquisition of higher-quality science at remote sites and enriched access to these sites. These capabilities could also be used to foster public interest, e.g., by making it possible for students to explore these environments personally, eventually perhaps interacting with a virtual world whose models could be populated by data obtained continuously from the IPN. Our paper looks at JPL's approach to making this evolution happen, starting from improved communications. Evolving space protocols (e.g., today's CCSDS proximity and file-transfer protocols) will provide the underpinning of such communications in the next decades, just as today's rich web was enabled by progress in Internet Protocols starting from the early 1970's (ARPAnet research). A key architectural thrust of this effort is to deploy persistent infrastructure incrementally, using a layered service model, where later higher-layer capabilities (such as adaptive science planning) are enabled by earlier lower-layer services (such as automated routing of object-based messages). In practice, there is also a mind shift needed from an engineering culture raised on point-to-point single-function communications (command uplink, telemetry downlink), to one in which assets are only indirectly accessed, via well-defined interfaces. We are aiming to foster a 'community of access' both among space assets and the humans who control them. This enables appropriate (perhaps eventually optimized) sharing of services and resources to the greater benefit of all participants. We envision such usage to be as automated in the future as using a cell phone is today - with all the steps in creating the real-time link being automated.
interplanetary network (IPN)↗