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NASA NTRS2003

Aerogel Composites for Aerospace Thermal Protection

Aerogel composites formed by infiltrating organic and/or inorganic aerogels into fiber matrix materials enable us to exploit the low thermal conductivity and low density of aerogels while maintaining the strength, structure and other useful properties of a porous fiber matrix. New materials for extreme heating ranges are needed to insulate future spacecraft against the extreme heat of planetary atmospheric entry, but the insulation mass must be minimized in order to maximize the payload. A reusable system passively insulates to survive heating unchanged for relatively low heating. Ablators, which sacrifice mass to control heating, are used to protect vehicles against more extreme heating for a single use thermal protection system (TPS). Aerogel composites were fabricated and tested for spacecraft thermal protection. The high-temperaturey high heat flux tests described in this paper were performed in NASA Ames arc-jet facilities to simulate spacecraft atmospheric entry, and include heating conditions predicted for the forebody and backshell of the Mars Science Lander (MSL) entry probe. The aerogel composites tested showed excellent thermal performance in the arc-jet tests, functioning both as reusuable insulation under lower heat fluxes, and as ablative aerogels under the extreme heating predicted for the MSL forebody.

White, Susan↗

DOE OSTI2024

He bubble-induced phase transformation of W grain boundaries revealed by accelerated molecular dynamics

The growth of He bubbles and the resulting impact on the microstructural evolution of W are of paramount importance to the plasma-facing materials community due to the application of W in Tokamak fusion reactors. Using accelerated molecular dynamics (AMD) techniques, we outline the structural evolution of grain boundaries (GBs) caused by growing He bubbles. It is discovered that when an alternative, low energy, high density GB structure or phase is available, He bubbles can induce a progressive phase transformation of the GB to the higher density phase by the continual nucleation of W Frenkel pairs. Here, we find that the resulting W self-interstitials migrate to sites at the GB which are structurally related to the higher density phase, leading to the transformation. We discuss the implications of this progressive microstructural evolution on the growing He bubble and consider in general how He bubbles will impact the structural evolution of an arbitrary W GB. These findings of GB phase transformation are predicted to impact other damage events in W such as recrystallization, GB migration and defect segregation which must take these findings into account in order to accurately simulate a realistic W microstructure and hence extract experimentally meaningful data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microstructure-Sensitive Uncertainty Quantification for Crystal Plasticity Finite Element Constitutive Models Using Stochastic Collocation Methods

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a major role in verification and validation for computational engineering models and simulations, and establishes trust in the predictive capability of computational models. In the materials science and engineering context, where the process-structure-property-performance linkage is well known to be the only road mapping from manufacturing to engineering performance, numerous integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been developed across a wide spectrum of length-scales and time-scales to relieve the burden of resource-intensive experiments. Within the structure-property linkage, crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) models have been widely used since they are one of a few ICME toolboxes that allows numerical predictions, providing the bridge from microstructure to materials properties and performances. Several constitutive models have been proposed in the last few decades to capture the mechanics and plasticity behavior of materials. While some UQ studies have been performed, the robustness and uncertainty of these constitutive models have not been rigorously established. In this work, we apply a stochastic collocation (SC) method, which is mathematically rigorous and has been widely used in the field of UQ, to quantify the uncertainty of three most commonly used constitutive models in CPFEM, namely phenomenological models (with and without twinning), and dislocation-density-based constitutive models, for three different types of crystal structures, namely face-centered cubic (fcc) copper (Cu), body-centered cubic (bcc) tungsten (W), and hexagonal close packing (hcp) magnesium (Mg). Our numerical results not only quantify the uncertainty of these constitutive models in stress-strain curve, but also analyze the global sensitivity of the underlying constitutive parameters with respect to the initial yield behavior, which may be helpful for robust constitutive model calibration works in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating multimodal data through interpretable heterogeneous ensembles

Motivation: Integrating multimodal data represents an effective approach to predicting biomedical characteristics, such as protein functions and disease outcomes. However, existing data integration approaches do not sufficiently address the heterogeneous semantics of multimodal data. In particular, early and intermediate approaches that rely on a uniform integrated representation reinforce the consensus among the modalities but may lose exclusive local information. The alternative late integration approach that can address this challenge has not been systematically studied for biomedical problems. Results: We propose Ensemble Integration (EI) as a novel systematic implementation of the late integration approach. EI infers local predictive models from the individual data modalities using appropriate algorithms and uses heterogeneous ensemble algorithms to integrate these local models into a global predictive model. We also propose a novel interpretation method for EI models. We tested EI on the problems of predicting protein function from multimodal STRING data and mortality due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from multimodal data in electronic health records. We found that EI accomplished its goal of producing significantly more accurate predictions than each individual modality. It also performed better than several established early integration methods for each of these problems. The interpretation of a representative EI model for COVID-19 mortality prediction identified several disease-relevant features, such as laboratory test (blood urea nitrogen and calcium) and vital sign measurements (minimum oxygen saturation) and demographics (age). These results demonstrated the effectiveness of the EI framework for biomedical data integration and predictive modeling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Women in Data Science Livermore Datathon 2024

The WiDS Datathon 2024 focuses on a prediction task using a roughly 39k record dataset (split into training and test sets) representing patients and their characteristics (age, race, BMI, zip code), their diagnosis and treatment information (breast cancer diagnosis code, metastatic cancer diagnosis code, metastatic cancer treatments, … etc.), their geo (zip-code level) demographic data (income, education, rent, race, poverty, …etc), as well as toxic air quality data (Ozone, PM25 and NO2) that tie health outcomes to environmental conditions. Each row in the data corresponds a single patient and her Diagnosis Period.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate change-resilient snowpack estimation in the Western United States

Abstract In the 21st century, warmer temperatures and changing atmospheric circulation will likely produce unprecedented changes in Western United States snowfall 1–3 , with impacts on the timing, amount, and spatial patterns of snowpack 4–7 . The ~900 snow pillow stations are indispensable to water resource management by measuring snow-water equivalent (SWE) 8,9 in strategic but fixed locations 10,11 . However, this network may not be impacted by climate change in the same way as the surrounding area 12 and thus fail to accurately represent unmeasured locations; climate change thereby threatens our ability to measure the effects of climate change on snow. In this work, we show that maintaining the current peak SWE estimation skill is nonetheless possible. We find that explicitly including spatial correlations—either from gridded observations or learned by the model—improves skill at predicting distributed snowpack from sparse observations by 184%. Existing artificial intelligence methods can be useful tools to harness the many available sources of snowpack information to estimate snowpack in a nonstationary climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Heliophysics: The New Science of the Sun-Solar System Connection. Recommended Roadmap for Science and Technology 2005-2035

This is a Roadmap to understanding the environment of our Earth, from its life-sustaining Sun out past the frontiers of the solar system. A collection of spacecraft now patrols this space, revealing not a placid star and isolated planets, but an immense, dynamic, interconnected system within which our home planet is embedded and through which space explorers must journey. These spacecraft already form a great observatory with which the Heliophysics program can study the Sun, the heliosphere, the Earth, and other planetary environments as elements of a system--one that contains dynamic space weather and evolves in response to solar, planetary, and interstellar variability. NASA continually evolves the Heliophysics Great Observatory by adding new missions and instruments in order to answer the challenging questions confronting us now and in the future as humans explore the solar system. The three heliophysics science objectives: opening the frontier to space environment prediction; understanding the nature of our home in space, and safeguarding the journey of exploration, require sustained research programs that depend on combining new data, theory, analysis, simulation, and modeling. Our program pursues a deeper understanding of the fundamental physical processes that underlie the exotic phenomena of space.

Heliophysics↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Race To Understand A Changing Planet

The Earth's climate is changing rapidly. In some respects, the rate of change is outpacing the predictions of only a few years ago. The challenge to Earth Science is to put forward credible projections of possible future climates so that the public and policy makers can make science-based decisions about energy development strategies. Models, observations and experiments all play strong roles in improving knowledge and increasing confidence in our predictions. The models have progressed from simple, coarse-resolution descriptions of atmospheric dynamics and physics only twenty years ago, to full-up Earth System models (ESMs) that include complete descriptions of the oceans and cryosphere. It has been convincingly argued that such complexity - the construction of realistic "toy" Earth's - is necessary to address the complex processes involved in climate change, including not only the physical atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, but also the carbon cycle - both its natural and anthropogenic components - and the biosphere. Observations, particularly satellite observations, have more or less kept pace with the demands of the modelers, being able to observe progressively more and different facets of the Earth system, but the global satellite fleet is in need of an overhaul very soon. Lastly, field experiments and process studies confront the models with facts and allow us to develop more sophisticated and accurate satellite data algorithms. The challenges facing our relatively small Earth and planetary science communities are considerable and the stakes are significant. The stakeholders, now numbering 7 billion but soon to be 10 billion, will be relying on our results and capabilitie's to guide them into the future.

Sellers, Piers J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating skill in predicting the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in initialized decadal climate prediction hindcasts in E3SMv1 and CESM1 using two different initialization methods and a small set of start years

Abstract It is a daunting challenge to conduct initialized hindcasts with enough ensemble members and associated start years to form a drifted climatology from which to compute the anomalies necessary to quantify the skill of the hindcasts when compared to observations. This limits the ability to experiment with case studies and other applications where only a few initial years are needed. Here we run a set of hindcasts with CESM1 and E3SMv1 using two different initialization methods for a limited set of start years and use the respective uninitialized free-running historical simulations to form the model climatologies. Since the drifts from the observed initial states in the hindcasts toward the uninitialized model state are large and rapid, after a few years the drifted initialized models approach the uninitialized model climatological errors. Therefore, hindcasts from the limited start years can use the uninitialized climatology to represent the drifted model states after about lead year 3, providing a means to compute forecast anomalies in the absence of a large hindcast sample. There is comparable skill for predicting spatial patterns of multi-year Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in the domain of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation using this method compared to the conventional methodology with a large hindcast data set, though there is a model dependence to the drifts in the two initialization methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Future Plans in US Flight Missions: Using Laser Remote Sensing for Climate Science Observations

Laser Remote Sensing provides critical climate science observations necessary to better measure, understand, model and predict the Earth's water, carbon and energy cycles. Laser Remote Sensing applications for studying the Earth and other planets include three dimensional mapping of surface topography, canopy height and density, atmospheric measurement of aerosols and trace gases, plume and cloud profiles, and winds measurements. Beyond the science, data from these missions will produce new data products and applications for a multitude of end users including policy makers and urban planners on local, national and global levels. NASA Missions in formulation including Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat 2) and the Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI), and future missions such as the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS), will incorporate the next generation of LIght Detection And Ranging (lidar) instruments to measure changes in the surface elevation of the ice, quantify ecosystem carbon storage due to biomass and its change, and provide critical data on CO 2 in the atmosphere. Goddard's plans for these instruments and potential uses for the resulting data are described below. For the ICESat 2 mission, GSFC is developing a micro-pulse multi-beam lidar. This instrument will provide improved ice elevation estimates over high slope and very rough areas and result in improved lead detection for sea ice estimates. Data about the sea ice and predictions related to sea levels will continue to help inform urban planners as the changes in the polar ice accelerate. DESDynI is planned to be launched in 2017 and includes both lidar and radar instruments. GSFC is responsible for the lidar portion of the DESDynI mission and is developing a scanning laser altimeter that will measure the Earth's topography, the structure of tree canopies, biomass, and surface roughness. The DESDynI lidar will also measure and predict the response of ice masses to climate change and impact on sea level. Data from the lidar will ultimately be fused with radar data products with heretofore unseen results and applications. The 3-D structure of forests is critical to understanding the impact of land use and associated landscape changes on the habitat of life forms and consequently on their biodiversity. Lidar instruments are also under development to measure trace gases in the atmospheric such as CO2 and methane. GSFC is developing an active measurement approach to determine the CO2 column density and surface pressure for the proposed ASCENDS mission. The objective of this approach is to produce data on the amounts of anthropogenic and organic CO2 in the atmosphere with sufficient accuracy to meet the needs of target users including state, federal and international users as well as policy-related legislative, regulatory, and voluntary carbon-related management groups local to international interests. In summary, NASA will continue to rely on laser remote sensing for critical climate science observations and is committed to the development of the next generation of lidar instruments for a range of applications.

Callahan, Lisa W.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting material microstructure evolution via data-driven machine learning

The recent rapid rise in data-driven practices in the materials science domain has led to the development of efficient, generalizable, and accurate approaches for several applications, including: material property prediction, mining (micro)structure- property and (micro)structure-processing relationships, and characterization of material microstructures. Central to the materials science domain is linking microstructure to properties and performance, and critical to building such linkages is understanding how microstructures evolve as a function of environmental exposure or processing conditions (e.g., time, temperature, applied stress or strain, irradiation). This preview article summarizes recent work on the development of recurrent neural networks for predicting spatio-temporal microstructure evolution detailed by Yang et al in their manuscript entitled 'Self-supervised Learning and Prediction of Microstructure Evolution with Recurrent Neural Networks'.

machine learning (ML), materials characterization↗

DOE OSTI2021

Information Entropy as Quantifier of Potential Predictability in the Tropical Indo-Pacific Basin

Global warming is posed to modify the modes of variability that control much of the climate predictability at seasonal to interannual scales. The quantification of changes in climate predictability over any given amount of time, however, remains challenging. Here we build upon recent advances in non-linear dynamical systems theory and introduce the climate community to an information entropy quantifier based on recurrence. The entropy, or complexity of a system is associated with microstates that recur over time in the time-series that define the system, and therefore to its predictability potential. A computationally fast method to evaluate the entropy is applied to the investigation of the information entropy of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, focusing on boreal fall. In this season the predictability of the basins is controlled by two regularly varying non-linear oscillations, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. We compute and compare the entropy in simulations from the CMIP5 catalog from the historical period and RCP8.5 scenario, and in reanalysis datasets. Discrepancies are found between the models and the reanalysis, and no robust changes in predictability can be identified in future projections. The Indian Ocean and the equatorial Pacific emerge as troublesome areas where the modeled entropy differs the most from that of the reanalysis in many models. A brief investigation of the source of the bias points to a poor representation of the ocean mean state and basins' connectivity at the Indonesian Throughflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

Space Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences Committee on Space Biology and Medicine points out that space medicine is unique among space sciences, because in addition to addressing questions of fundamental scientific interest, it must address clinical or human health and safety issues as well. Efforts to identify how microgravity affects human physiology began in earnest by the United States in 1960 with the establishment of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA's) Life Sciences program. Before the first human space missions, prediction about the physiological effects of microgravity in space ranged from extremely severe to none at all. The understanding that has developed from our experiences in space to date allows us to be guardedly optimistic about the ultimate accommodations of humans to space flight. Only by our travels into the microgravity environment of space have we begun to unravel the mysteries associated with gravity's role in shaping human physiology. Space medicine is still at its very earliest stages. Development of this field has been slow for several reasons, including the limited number of space flights, the small number of research subjects, and the competition within the life sciences community and other disciplines for flight opportunities. The physiological changes incurred during space flight may have a dramatic effect on the course of an injury or illness. These physiological changes present an exciting challenge for the field of space medicine: how to best preserve human health and safety while simultaneously deciphering the effects of microgravity on human performance. As the United States considers the future of humans in long-term space travel, it is essential that the many mysteries as to how microgravity affects human systems be addressed with vigor. Based on the current state of our knowledge, the justification is excellent indeed compelling- for NASA to develop a sophisticated capability in space medicine. Teams of physicians and scientists should be actively engaged in fundamental and applied research designed to ensure that it is safe for humans to routinely and repeatedly stay and work in the microgravity environment of space.

Pool, Sam L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nanocrystal programmable assembly beyond hard spheres (or shapes) and other (simple) potentials

Ligands are the key to almost any strategy in the assembly of programmable nanocrystals (or nanoparticles) and must be accurately considered in any predictive model. Hard Spheres (or Shapes) provide the simplest and yet quite successful approach to assembly, with remarkable sophisticated predictions verified in experiments. There are, however, many situations where hard spheres/shapes predictions fail. This prompts three important questions: In what situations should hard spheres/shapes models be expected to work? and when they do not work, Is there a general model that successfully corrects hard sphere/shape predictions? and given other successful models where ligands are included explicitly, and of course, numerical simulations, can we unify hard sphere/shape models, explicit ligand models and all atom simulations? . Further, the Orbifold Topological Model (OTM) provides a positive answer to these three questions. In this paper, I give a detailed review of OTM, describing the concept of ligand vortices and how it leads to spontaneous valence and nanoparticle “eigenshapes” while providing a prediction of the lattice structure, without fitting parameters, which accounts for many body effects not captured by (two-body) potentials. I present a thorough survey of experiments and simulations and show that, to this date, they are in full agreement with the OTM predictions. I conclude with a discussion on whether NC superlattices are equilibrium structures and some significant challenges in structure prediction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exclusive four pion photoproduction in ultraperipheral Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}} = 5.02$ TeV

The intense photon fluxes from relativistic nuclei provide an opportunity to study photonuclear interactions in ultraperipheral collisions. The measurement of coherently photoproduced π + π − π + π − final states in ultraperipheral Pb–Pb collisions at √s NN = 5.02 TeV is presented for the first time. The cross section, dσ/dy, times the branching ratio (ρ →π + π + π − π − ) is found to be 47.8±2.3 (stat.)± 7.7 (syst.) mb in the rapidity interval |y| < 0.5. The invariant mass distribution is not well described with a single Breit-Wigner resonance. The production of two interfering resonances, ρ(1450) and ρ(1700), provides a good description of the data. The values of the masses (m) and widths (Γ) of the resonances extracted from the fit are m 1 = 1385±14 (stat.)±3 (syst.) MeV/c 2 , Γ 1 = 431±36 (stat.)±82 (syst.) MeV/c 2 , m 2 = 1663±13 (stat.)±22 (syst.) MeV/c 2 and Γ 2 = 357 ± 31 (stat.)±49 (syst.) MeV/c 2 , respectively. The measured cross sections times the branching ratios are compared to recent theoretical predictions.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-precision measurement of the W boson mass with the CMS experiment at the LHC

In the standard model of particle physics, the masses of the carriers of the weak interaction, the W and Z bosons, are uniquely related. Physics beyond the standard model could change this relationship through the effects of quantum loops of virtual particles, thus making it of great importance to measure these masses with the highest possible precision. Although the mass of the Z boson is known to the remarkable precision of 22 parts per million (2.0 MeV), the W boson mass is known much less precisely, given the difficulty of the measurement. A global fit to electroweak data, used to predict the W boson mass in the standard model, yields an uncertainty of 6 MeV. Reaching a comparable experimental precision would be a sensitive and fundamental test of the standard model. Furthermore, a precision measurement of the W boson mass performed by the CDF Collaboration at the Fermilab Tevatron has challenged the standard model by significantly disagreeing with the prediction of the global electroweak fit and the average of other $m_\mathrm{W}$ measurements. We report the first W boson mass measurement by the CMS Collaboration at the CERN LHC, based on a data sample collected in 2016 at the proton-proton collision energy of 13 TeV. The W boson mass is measured using a large sample of W$\toμν$ events via a highly granular binned maximum likelihood fit to the kinematic properties of the muons produced in the W$^{+}$ and W$^{-}$ boson decays. The significant in situ constraints of theoretical inputs and their corresponding uncertainties, together with an accurate determination of the experimental effects, lead to a precise W boson mass measurement, $m_\mathrm{W} =$ 80$\,$360.2 $\pm$ 9.9 MeV, in agreement with the standard model prediction.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Atmospheric Variability and Measurement Uncertainty: Pitfalls in Averaging in situ Data

Satellite measurements and atmospheric models, two essential components of the integrated global observing system, provide crucial tools for monitoring and predicting regional and global foci, spanning numerous Earth Science fields. Unfortunately, models can lack the spatial and temporal resolution needed to resolve finer scale structure. Satellite measurements also have similar tempo-spatial restriction issues, but additionally can only measure certain species and can have biases that must be evaluated. Ground measurement networks are critical components of this system, by providing both independent inputs of species needed by models (including those that satellites do not provide) and assisting with investigation of biases in satellite products. Similarly, aircraft measurements play a vital role in closing the gaps between satellite measurements, model products, and ground monitoring networks by providing high accuracy, high-resolution data on local to regional spatial scales. Therefore, both ground-based and airborne observations are widely used to assess model predictions and satellite observations. One of the great challenges in using both ground and aircraft data in this fashion is matching the data temporally and spatially to the model/satellite data. A meaningful comparison with model or satellite requires a solid assessment of the variability of the in-situ measurements, which include both the instrument uncertainty and the statistical uncertainty due to atmospheric variability. While instrument uncertainty is generally more straightforwardly characterized, it can be challenging to accurately capture this variability uncertainty as it often presents in a non-Gaussian manner (e.g. emission plumes, frontal passages). We will present results examining spatial and temporal variability over a selection of scales relevant to satellite measurements and models of several in situ measurement species spanning both airborne and ground measurements. The extent of non-Gaussian variability will be quantified, and we will discuss additional statistical parameters that help assess the fitness of gaussian variability assumption when temporally or spatially averaging.

satellite validation↗

NASA NTRS2007

Emphasizing Spectrum Management for Sustainable Development Research and Applications in Disaster Management

NASA's spaceborne Earth and Heliospheric Observatories and airborne sensors provide a plethora of measurements. These measurements are used in science research to understand the climatology of our home planet and the solar fluxes and cycle of the only star in our solar system 'Sun' which is critical driver for the retention of life on Earth. Specifically, these measurements help us to understand the water and energy cycle, the carbon cycle, weather and climate, atmospheric chemistry, solar variability, and solid Earth and interior to feed into sophisticated mathematical models to analyze and predict the Earth's behavior as an integrated system. The main thrust of this research is on improving the prediction capability in the areas of weather, long term climate and solid Earth processes, and further help the humanity and future generations in terms of societal benefits in managing natural disasters, sustainability issues and many more. This work is further linked with our contributions in the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) Specifically, the data and knowledge resulting from the Earth observing systems and analytical models of the Earth can be made available for assimilation into decision support systems to serve society for disaster management. Through partnerships with national and international agencies and organizations, NASA's Science Mission Directorate's, Applied Sciences Program contributes to benchmarking practical uses of observations and predictions from Earth science remote sensing systems research. The objective is to establish innovative solutions using Earth observations and science information to provide decision support that can be adapted in applications of national and international priority. We along with the international community will continue this critical field of investigation by using our existing and future sensors from space, airborne and insitue environment. In our quest to expanding our knowledge, there will be a need for deploying additional sensors to obtain high spatial, temporal and spectral resolution measurements. These sensors operate in multiple spectral band ranging from UV, visible, infrared, microwave and radio frequency ranges. Of a particular concern is the microwave frequency bands which play a key role in land, ocean, moisture sensing. This is because of a growing commercial demand in the area of high speed broadband communication all over the world, the electronic manufacturers are looking into high frequency microwave spectral bands. This may present a risk to the remote sensing sensors because of additional sources of noise that can impair the highly sensitive passive remote sensing instruments.

Ambrose, Stephen↗