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NASA NTRS2007

Data Mining Methods Applied to Flight Operations Quality Assurance Data: A Comparison to Standard Statistical Methods

In a previous study, multiple regression techniques were applied to Flight Operations Quality Assurance-derived data to develop parsimonious model(s) for fuel consumption on the Boeing 757 airplane. The present study examined several data mining algorithms, including neural networks, on the fuel consumption problem and compared them to the multiple regression results obtained earlier. Using regression methods, parsimonious models were obtained that explained approximately 85% of the variation in fuel flow. In general data mining methods were more effective in predicting fuel consumption. Classification and Regression Tree methods reported correlation coefficients of .91 to .92, and General Linear Models and Multilayer Perceptron neural networks reported correlation coefficients of about .99. These data mining models show great promise for use in further examining large FOQA databases for operational and safety improvements.

Stolzer, Alan J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Calibration of AVHRR/3 Visible Dual Gain Using Meteosat-8 as a MODIS Calibration Transfer Medium

This viewgraph presentation reviews the NOAA-17 AVHRR visible channels calibrated against MET-8/MODIS using dual gain regression methods. The topics include: 1) Motivation; 2) Methodology; 3) Dual Gain Regression Methods; 4) Examples of Regression methods; 5) AVHRR/3 Regression Strategy; 6) Cross-Calibration Method; 7) Spectral Response Functions; 8) MET8/NOAA-17; 9) Example of gain ratio adjustment; 10) Effect of mixed low/high count FOV; 11) Monitor dual gains over time; and 12) Conclusions

Avey, Lance↗
NASA NTRS2010

Model Robust Calibration: Method and Application to Electronically-Scanned Pressure Transducers

This article presents the application of a recently developed statistical regression method to the controlled instrument calibration problem. The statistical method of Model Robust Regression (MRR), developed by Mays, Birch, and Starnes, is shown to improve instrument calibration by reducing the reliance of the calibration on a predetermined parametric (e.g. polynomial, exponential, logarithmic) model. This is accomplished by allowing fits from the predetermined parametric model to be augmented by a certain portion of a fit to the residuals from the initial regression using a nonparametric (locally parametric) regression technique. The method is demonstrated for the absolute scale calibration of silicon-based pressure transducers.

Walker, Eric L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Application of Temperature Sensitivities During Iterative Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Analysis

A new method is discussed that may be used to correct wind tunnel strain-gage balance load predictions for the influence of residual temperature effects at the location of the strain-gages. The method was designed for the iterative analysis technique that is used in the aerospace testing community to predict balance loads from strain-gage outputs during a wind tunnel test. The new method implicitly applies temperature corrections to the gage outputs during the load iteration process. Therefore, it can use uncorrected gage outputs directly as input for the load calculations. The new method is applied in several steps. First, balance calibration data is analyzed in the usual manner assuming that the balance temperature was kept constant during the calibration. Then, the temperature difference relative to the calibration temperature is introduced as a new independent variable for each strain--gage output. Therefore, sensors must exist near the strain--gages so that the required temperature differences can be measured during the wind tunnel test. In addition, the format of the regression coefficient matrix needs to be extended so that it can support the new independent variables. In the next step, the extended regression coefficient matrix of the original calibration data is modified by using the manufacturer specified temperature sensitivity of each strain--gage as the regression coefficient of the corresponding temperature difference variable. Finally, the modified regression coefficient matrix is converted to a data reduction matrix that the iterative analysis technique needs for the calculation of balance loads. Original calibration data and modified check load data of NASA's MC60D balance are used to illustrate the new method.

Ulbrich, N.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Calibration and Data Analysis of the MC-130 Air Balance

Design, calibration, calibration analysis, and intended use of the MC-130 air balance are discussed. The MC-130 balance is an 8.0 inch diameter force balance that has two separate internal air flow systems and one external bellows system. The manual calibration of the balance consisted of a total of 1854 data points with both unpressurized and pressurized air flowing through the balance. A subset of 1160 data points was chosen for the calibration data analysis. The regression analysis of the subset was performed using two fundamentally different analysis approaches. First, the data analysis was performed using a recently developed extension of the Iterative Method. This approach fits gage outputs as a function of both applied balance loads and bellows pressures while still allowing the application of the iteration scheme that is used with the Iterative Method. Then, for comparison, the axial force was also analyzed using the Non-Iterative Method. This alternate approach directly fits loads as a function of measured gage outputs and bellows pressures and does not require a load iteration. The regression models used by both the extended Iterative and Non-Iterative Method were constructed such that they met a set of widely accepted statistical quality requirements. These requirements lead to reliable regression models and prevent overfitting of data because they ensure that no hidden near-linear dependencies between regression model terms exist and that only statistically significant terms are included. Finally, a comparison of the axial force residuals was performed. Overall, axial force estimates obtained from both methods show excellent agreement as the differences of the standard deviation of the axial force residuals are on the order of 0.001 % of the axial force capacity.

Booth, Dennis↗
NASA NTRS2012

Formulation and Testing of Paraffin-Based Solid Fuels Containing Energetic Additives for Hybrid Rockets

Many approaches have been considered in an effort to improve the regression rate of solid fuels for hybrid rocket applications. One promising method is to use a fuel with a fast burning rate such as paraffin wax; however, additional performance increases to the fuel regression rate are necessary to make the fuel a viable candidate to replace current launch propulsion systems. The addition of energetic and/or nano-sized particles is one way to increase mass-burning rates of the solid fuels and increase the overall performance of the hybrid rocket motor.1,2 Several paraffin-based fuel grains with various energetic additives (e.g., lithium aluminum hydride (LiAlH4) have been cast in an attempt to improve regression rates. There are two major advantages to introducing LiAlH4 additive into the solid fuel matrix: 1) the increased characteristic velocity, 2) decreased dependency of Isp on oxidizer-to-fuel ratio. The testing and characterization of these solid-fuel grains have shown that continued work is necessary to eliminate unburned/unreacted fuel in downstream sections of the test apparatus.3 Changes to the fuel matrix include higher melting point wax and smaller energetic additive particles. The reduction in particle size through various methods can result in more homogeneous grain structure. The higher melting point wax can serve to reduce the melt-layer thickness, allowing the LiAlH4 particles to react closer to the burning surface, thus increasing the heat feedback rate and fuel regression rate. In addition to the formulation of LiAlH4 and paraffin wax solid-fuel grains, liquid additives of triethylaluminum and diisobutylaluminum hydride will be included in this study. Another promising fuel formulation consideration is to incorporate a small percentage of RDX as an additive to paraffin. A novel casting technique will be used by dissolving RDX in a solvent to crystallize the energetic additive. After dissolving the RDX in a solvent chosen for its compatibility with both paraffin and RDX, the mixture will be combined with the melted paraffin. With the melting point of the paraffin far below the decomposition temperature of the RDX, the solvent will be boiled off, leaving the crystallized RDX embedded in the paraffin. At low percentages of RDX additive and with crystallized RDX surrounded by paraffin, the fuel grains will remain inert, maintaining a key benefit of hybrids in the safety of the solid fuel.

Larson, Daniel B.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing Ozone Forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland

An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for

ozone↗
NASA NTRS2017

Probabilistic Forecasting of Surface Ozone with a Novel Statistical Approach

The recent change in the Environmental Protection Agency's surface ozone regulation, lowering the surface ozone daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) exceedance threshold from 75 to 70 ppbv, poses significant challenges to U.S. air quality (AQ) forecasters responsible for ozone MDA8 forecasts. The forecasters, supplied by only a few AQ model products, end up relying heavily on self-developed tools. To help U.S. AQ forecasters, this study explores a surface ozone MDA8 forecasting tool that is based solely on statistical methods and standard meteorological variables from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The model combines the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a clustering technique, with a step wise weighted quadratic regression using meteorological variables as predictors for ozone MDA8. The SOM method identifies different weather regimes, to distinguish between various modes of ozone variability, and groups them according to similarity. In this way, when a regression is developed for a specific regime, data from the other regimes are also used, with weights that are based on their similarity to this specific regime. This approach, regression in SOM (REGiS), yields a distinct model for each regime taking into account both the training cases for that regime and other similar training cases. To produce probabilistic MDA8 ozone forecasts, REGiS weighs and combines all of the developed regression models on the basis of the weather patterns predicted by an NWP model. REGiS is evaluated over the San Joaquin Valley in California and the northeastern plains of Colorado. The results suggest that the model performs best when trained and adjusted separately for an individual AQ station and its corresponding meteorological site.

Ozone variables↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Quasi-Global Approach to Improve Day-Time Satellite Surface Soil Moisture Anomalies through the Land Surface Temperature Input

Passive microwave observations from various spaceborne sensors have been linked to the soil moisture of the Earth's surface layer. A new generation of passive microwave sensors are dedicated to retrieving this variable and make observations in the single theoretically optimal L-band frequency (1-2 GHz). Previous generations of passive microwave sensors made observations in a range of higher frequencies, allowing for simultaneous estimation of additional variables required for solving the radiative transfer equation. One of these additional variables is land surface temperature, which plays a unique role in the radiative transfer equation and has an influence on the final quality of retrieved soil moisture anomalies. This study presents an optimization procedure for soil moisture retrievals through a quasi-global precipitation-based verification technique, the so-called Rvalue metric. Various land surface temperature scenarios were evaluated in which biases were added to an existing linear regression, specifically focusing on improving the skills to capture the temporal variability of soil moisture. We focus on the relative quality of the day-time (01:30 pm) observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), as these are theoretically most challenging due to the thermal equilibrium theory, and existing studies indicate that larger improvements are possible for these observations compared to their night-time (01:30 am) equivalent. Soil moisture data used in this study were retrieved through the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), and in line with theory, both satellite paths show a unique and distinct degradation as a function of vegetation density. Both the ascending (01:30 pm) and descending (01:30 am) paths of the publicly available and widely used AMSR-E LPRM soil moisture products were used for benchmarking purposes. Several scenarios were employed in which the land surface temperature input for the radiative transfer was varied by imposing a bias on an existing regression. These scenarios were evaluated through the Rvalue technique, resulting in optimal bias values on top of this regression. In a next step, these optimal bias values were incorporated in order to re-calibrate the existing linear regression, resulting in a quasi-global uniform LST relation for day-time observations. In a final step, day-time soil moisture retrievals using the re-calibrated land surface temperature relation were again validated through the Rvalue technique. Results indicate an average increasing Rvalue of 16.5%, which indicates a better performance obtained through the re-calibration. This number was confirmed through an independent Triple Collocation verification over the same domain, demonstrating an average root mean square error reduction of 15.3%. Furthermore, a comparison against an extensive in situ database (679 stations) also indicates a generally higher quality for the re-calibrated dataset. Besides the improved day-time dataset, this study furthermore provides insights on the relative quality of soil moisture retrieved from AMSR-E's day- and night-time observations.

soil moisture↗
NASA NTRS2017

Intercalibration of AMSR2 NASA Team 2 Algorithm Sea Ice Concentrations with AMSR-E Slow Rotation Data

Sea ice estimates from AMSR2 are intercalibrated with AMSR-E fields through a two-step process. First, slow rotation 2 r/min AMSR-E data is used to derive regression equations from colocated pairs of AMSR2 and AMSR-E brightness temperatures (Tb s). The regression equations are used to modify AMSR2 Tb s into AMSR-E equivalent Tb s that are then input into the NASA Team 2 (NT2) sea ice concentration algorithm used for the AMSR-E standard products. The regressed Tb s result in changes in sea ice concentration of a few percent compared to using the original un-regressed AMSR2 Tb s. Next, sea ice estimates from the F17 SSMIS sensor are used as a bridge to compare AMSR-E total sea ice extent estimates in 2010 with AMSR2 total sea ice extent estimates in 2013. Based on this comparison, a further adjustment is made to a weather filter threshold used in the NT2 algorithm to minimize the total extent bias between AMSR2 and AMSR-E using a double-differencing approach. The adjustments reduced apparent bias with AMSR-E from 200 000 km2 for the original unmodified AMSR2 Tb s to –700 and 4700 km2 for the Arctic and Antarctic, respectively. These differences are within the range of previous passive microwave sea ice intercalibrations. The adjusted AMSR2 sea ice fields provide a nearly 15-year time series of sea ice change; depending on the lifetime of AMSR2 and possible follow on sensors, AMSR2 has the potential to be part of a multidecadal record of sea ice change.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2016

Hybrid Propulsion In-Situ Resource Utilization Test Facility Results for Performance Characterization

Hybrid propulsion presents a promising alternative to conventional systems for in-space propulsion applications using In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP). A hybrid propulsion test facility has been built at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) with the capability of evaluating ISPP oxidizers (gaseous mixtures of O2 and CO2) and modifying fuel type and chamber geometry. This work is the result of a continuing e ort at JPL to characterize the burn characteristics and performance of different propellant combinations and motor configurations in order to re ne and support preliminary designs. Twelve tests using gaseous oxygen and two paraffin based fuels (Black Paraffin and SP1X) from the 2015 campaign are presented. Different reduction techniques are compared in an e ort to determine the uncertainty associated with deriving a regression rate law and evaluating c* efficiency with the collected data.Hybrid motors are mechanically and chemically simple propulsion systems that have the potential forlong-term storability with low gross mass. The oxidizer (such as gaseous O2) can be produced in-situ,signicantly reducing the landed mass. The solid, inert fuel is stored in the combustion chamber in its most dense state, further reducing the total structural mass and volume. Considerable eorts have been focusedon ISPP for Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) and human exploration of Mars.At optimum oxidizer to fuel ratio (O/F), about 70% of the total propellant mass could be produced in-situ.Paran based fuels exhibit a fast regression rate behavior due to the formation of a thin liquid layer on thefuel surface.1 A high burn rate is necessary in order to reach a medium to high thrust range. In order toachieve an O/F ratio close to optimum performance (between 2.1 and 2.7 for the O2/Paran combination),the fuel mass ow needs to be suciently large compared to the oxidizer ow. The slow regression rateof classical hybrid rocket fuels leads to long fuel grain designs or complicated multi-port structures. Singleport, high regression rate fuels have the potential to reduce residual propellant mass and have a grainlength to diameter ratio (L/D) more favorable for packaging. However, hybrid motors remain at a fairly lowTechnology Readiness Level (TRL), and solutions to accurately measure and increase performance are stilllacking, especially for small-scale motors that are constrained to tight packaging.A total of 12 hotres were performed and analyzed in this campaign. All of these tests were conductedat pressures above the critical pressure of paran wax, approximately 6.7 bar (97 psi).2 Three dierentmotor congurations were explored while conserving a single cylindrical port fuel grain. Additionally, sincethrottling is a crucial advantage of hybrid rocket propulsion systems, low oxidizer mass ows (60 - 100 g/s)and uxes (5 - 30 g/cm2/s) were investigated to determine the performance impact in this regime.

Mechentel, F. S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Modeling Whitecaps on Global Scale

Whitecaps play an important role in the surface-atmosphere interactions across the ocean. They are directly linked to the energy dissipation rate during wave breaking and transfer of heat, momentum, and gas/aerosol exchange from the wind to the sea surface. Although the first models of W were dependent only on wind speeds, a large number of diverse models based on wind and sea state which include wave height, wave age, friction velocity, and stability effects have been proposed since then. However, it is recognized that most of the proposed W models have strong systematic (e.g., zonal bias) and random errors when compared against observations. This is partly due to the differences in environmental conditions, measurement techniques, and geographical locations among these studies. But, some of these biases are linked to the inability of the proposed models to capture the variability in W in certain wind/wave regimes. Despite the knowledge of existing biases, W residual relationships from the models with wind and wave fields remain highly uncertain, with residual trends varying between the published studies. Here, we take advantage of the availability of relatively dense observations of W from WindSat microwave satellite retrievals in combination with the University of Miami wave model which was recently incorporated within the NASA GMAO/GEOS system (GEOS-UMWM). We use Windsat W retrievals to assess and constrain the previously published W models and understand the relationships of residuals from models in different wind/wave regimes. We link these unexplained residual variations to additional factors such as swell index, drag coefficient etc and add information to the existing whitecap models. Since Windsat retrievals cover wide range of environmental conditions, it helps to reduce the uncertainties associated with differences in measurement techniques. Regression of wind-wave fields against all Windsat data points (CTL) results in larger residuals for lower wave age and W is overestimated upto ~4% for wave age < 10 and underestimated by upto ~2% as wave age increases. We attest to this bias by considering two approaches. One is to perform regression separately for different stages of wave development such as developing sea, fully developed, and wind sea regimes thereby understanding the sensitivity of regression coefficients to sea state (EXP1). Another is to derive coefficients of W models in EXP1 as a function of additional wind/wave factors such as swell index, drag coefficient, and mean squared slope, deriving more nonlinear W models (EXP2). EXP2 provides reduction in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) by 0.1-0.3%. Sea surface drag has a stronger relationship with regression coefficients compared to swell index.These additional factors provide improved parameterizations in different wind and wave age regimes, with smaller unexplained/residual variations in W that has been a major concern in the W community.

Raman, Aishwarya↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Added Value of SMAP Soil Moisture in Crop Yield Forecasting Over Argentina

Argentina is one of the major producers and exporter of soybeans, corn, and wheat to the world market; therefore, the accurate and timely forecasting of those crops yield is crucial to national crop management and global food security. Previous studies have mainly focused on developing forecasting models for a specific crop type and location using a single source of data (e.g., vegetation indices), thus providing little insight into the forecasting models' performance on different crop types and regions. Besides, these models are based on traditional statistical regression algorithms, while more advanced machine learning approaches have not been explored. This study investigated the estimation of crop yields of three major crops (corn, soybean, and winter wheat) using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), over major growing provinces in Argentina. Our models were trained and evaluated on data from 2015 to 2020, where three remote sensing products (Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), SMAP soil moisture, and MODIS evapotranspiration) were used as predictors. Our results indicated that accurate crop yield forecasts using the developed regression models could be made one to two months before harvest. The MLR and SVM model performance varied among different crop types, where soybean and corn exhibited better predictability compare to the wheat. In most cases, the SVM outperformed the multiple linear regression model due to its ability to capture the nonlinear and complex features of the crop-production process. The forecasted model that combines data from multiple sources outperformed single-source satellite data. The highest accuracy was obtained when the three data sources were all considered in the model development. Results also indicated that the inclusion of SMAP soil moisture improved crop yield forecasting in most provinces, and the most significant improvements occurred in the drier region.

Nazmus Shams Sazib↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open-source Numerical Modeling of Solidification Cracking Susceptibility: Application to Refractory Alloy Systems

Introduction. Alloys such as aluminum, nickel-base, and austenitic stainless steels are susceptible to solidification cracking during welding and 3D printing. Compositional optimization is one method used to effectively mitigate solidification cracking of those alloy systems. With the surge in hypersonic and in-space propulsion activities, refractory metals (Nb, Mo, Ta, W, and Re) and their alloy derivatives are increasing in importance due to their extreme high melting point and retention of high-temperature strength; however, their chemistry was most typically optimized to promote ductility during mechanical operations such as drawing and forming. Welding of such alloys has been a challenge due to a number of issues including solidification cracking, atmospheric contamination (O, C, and N), as well as a shift in ductile-to-brittle transition to higher temperature following grain growth induced by welding. Compositional optimization of refractory alloys for solidification cracking resistance in particular is desirable as their usage increases with the advent of advanced manufacturing methods such as 3D printing. This work evaluates the effect of compositional variation in refractory metal systems on the solidification cracking susceptibility with the goals of optimizing existing alloys and joining process techniques, and formulating new alloys with increased solidification cracking resistance. Experimental Procedures. A python code was developed in a Jupyter notebook environment (Michael and Sowards, 2023) to facilitate the calculation of crack susceptibility index proposed by Kou (2015). Composition is entered as a single point, or as a 1-D or 2-D array. The notebook calls pycalphad (Otis and Liu, 2017 and Bocklund et al, 2020) to calculate the evolution of fraction solid as a function of temperature (under either Scheil or equilibrium assumptions) and then evaluates steepness of the fraction solid curve near the terminal stage of solidification to predict solidification cracking resistance. Open source thermodynamic databases available at online repositories are used (van de Walle). The process is setup in an automated fashion to generate plots that show variation in solidification cracking susceptibility according to composition on 1-D line plots or 2-D contour plots. The Jupyter notebook and crack susceptibility algorithm was also integrated with a widely used commercial CALPHAD code for validation and alloy exploration. Results and Discussion. The crack susceptibility model was first validated against a series of refractory alloy compositions evaluated in past work which utilized a specialized Varestraint test built inside a vacuum chamber environment (Lessman and Gold, 1971). The alloys tested in the Varestraint apparatus included T-111 (Ta-8W-2Hf), ASTAR-811C (Ta-8W-1Re-0.7Hf-0.025C), FS-85 (Nb-27Ta-10W-1Zr), T-222 (Ta-9.6W-2.4Hf-0.01C), Ta-10W, B-66 (Nb-5Mo-5V-1Zr), and SCb-291 (Nb-10W-10Ta). The initial test of the model showed a strong correlation with empirical Varestraint data, i.e., a Spearman rank correlation between model predictions and hot cracking measurements was observed to be greater than 0.8. Following the validation, a set of refractory metal binary mixtures was investigated to evaluate sensitivity of Nb, Mo, W, and Ta to C, N, and O content. A series of plots were produced that suggest ppmw ranges of C, N, and O where solidification cracking increases significantly and reaches a maximum. Also comparative ranking of each primary refractory metal to each interstitial was produced. For example C produces greater cracking response in Mo whereas O produces greater cracking response in Ta and Nb. Such compositional values have utility in setting limits on pickup of these interstitial elements during welding and printing rather than using a one-size-fits-all approach. Furthermore, the results have use in determining additive powder recycling requirements, which is especially pertinent for refractory metal powders due to their high cost compared to conventional alloys. Another application created thousands of hypothetical alloys within the nominal specified composition range of two widely used refractory alloys C103 (Nb-10Hf-1Ti) and TZM (Mo-0.5Ti-0.1Zr). The cracking index was calculated for the alloys and results were fed into machine learning regression techniques including Multiple Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, and Lasso Regression to determine relative potency each alloying element had on computed solidification cracking index. A series of linear equations were produced that relate composition of C103 and TZM to solidification cracking index. The crack susceptibility of C103 for example is described by an equation of the form: cracking index ~ O + 0.667*C + 0.635*N + 0.00037*Ta – 0.0008*Hf (in wt.%) From that equation, it is clear that O has strong propensity to induce solidification cracking. Interestingly, Hf is shown to reduce calculated cracking response. Finally, realizing the potential of this method to discover new refractory alloy formulations across the period table that have low solidification cracking sensitivity, the code was applied to new untested alloy systems including W-Zr-C, W-Ta-C, and others. Conclusions. In summary, an open source numerical method has been developed using Python code to calculate Kou’s crack susceptibility index. The method was applied to refractory metals which are inherently difficult to study from a weldability testing standpoint since inert shielding gas is not sufficient and welding is typically done in vacuum, especially in light of findings presented here where oxygen has profound influence on solidification cracking. This work revealed the effect of compositional variations on a series of refractory metals and showed the framework defined here will be useful in 1) the development of new alloys that have improved weldability and 3D printability, 2) placing compositional limits on existing alloys, and 3) ensuring adequate controls of manufacturing processes such as 3D printing where powder reuse is critical. Keywords. pycalphad; Python; refractory metals; solidification cracking. References. B. Bocklund et. al. (2020) http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3630657. S. Kou. (2015) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actamat.2015.01.034. G.G. Lessmann and R.E. Gold. Welding Journal, issue 1, pp. 1-s – 8-s (1971). F.N. Michael and J.W. Sowards. NASA/TM-20230002218 (2023). R. Otis and Z.-K. Liu. (2017) http://doi.org/10.5334/jors.140. A. Van de Wallle et. al. (2018) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.calphad.2018.04.003.

pycalphad↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collectedunder structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore,their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distanceto the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensembleof trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fittingobserved in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inversephysical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of thesource strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations ofunderlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collected under structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore, their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distance to the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensemble of trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fitting observed in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inverse physical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of the source strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations of underlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian chain graph models to characterize microbe-environment dynamics

Microbiome data require statistical models that can simultaneously decode microbes' reaction to the environment and interactions among microbes. While a multiresponse linear regression model seems like a straight-forward solution, we argue that treating it as a graphical model is problematic given that the regression coefficient matrix does not encode the conditional dependence structure between response and predictor nodes. This observation is especially important in biological settings when we have prior knowledge on the edges from specific experimental interventions that can only be properly encoded under a conditional dependence model. Here, we propose a chain graph model with two sets of nodes (predictors and responses) whose solution yields a graph with edges that indeed represent conditional dependence, thus agreeing with the experimenter's intuition on the average behavior of nodes under treatment. The solution to our model is sparse via the Bayesian linear regression (LASSO). In addition, we propose an adaptive extension so that different shrinkages can be applied to different edges to incorporate edge-specific prior knowledge. Our model is computationally inexpensive through an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm and can account for binary, counting, and compositional responses via an appropriate hierarchical structure. We test the performance of our model in a variety of simulated datasets, thereby showing superior performance to state-of-the-art approaches. We further apply our model to human gut and soil microbial compositional datasets, and we highlight that CG-LASSO can estimate biologically meaningful network structures in the data.

compositional data↗