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American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Interim Report on Customer Acceptance, Retention, and Response to Time-Based Rates from the Consumer Behavior Studies

Time-based rate programs1, enabled by utility investments in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), are increasingly being considered by utilities as tools to reduce peak demand and enable customers to better manage consumption and costs. There are several customer systems that are relatively new to the marketplace and have the potential for improving the effectiveness of these programs, including in-home displays (IHDs), programmable communicating thermostats (PCTs), and web portals. Policy and decision makers are interested in more information about customer acceptance, retention, and response before moving forward with expanded deployments of AMI-enabled new rates and technologies. Under the Smart Grid Investment Grant Program (SGIG), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) partnered with several utilities to conduct consumer behavior studies (CBS). The goals involved applying randomized and controlled experimental designs for estimating customer responses more precisely and credibly to advance understanding of time-based rates and customer systems, and provide new information for improving program designs, implementation strategies, and evaluations. The intent was to produce more robust and credible analysis of impacts, costs, benefits, and lessons learned and assist utility and regulatory decision makers in evaluating investment opportunities involving time-based rates. To help achieve these goals, DOE developed technical guidelines to help the CBS utilities estimate customer acceptance, retention, and response more precisely.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Echo™ User Manual

Echo™ is a MATLAB-based software package designed for robust and scalable analysis of complex data workflows. An alternative to tedious, error-prone conventional processes, Echo is based on three transformative principles for data analysis: self-describing data, name-based indexing, and dynamic resource allocation. The software takes an object-oriented approach to data analysis, intimately connecting measurement data with associated metadata. Echo operations in an analysis workflow automatically track and merge metadata and computation parameters to provide a complete history of the process used to generate final results, while automated figure and report generation tools eliminate the potential to mislabel those results. History reporting and visualization methods provide straightforward auditability of analysis processes. Furthermore, name-based indexing on metadata greatly improves code readability for analyst collaboration and reduces opportunities for errors to occur. Echo efficiently manages large data sets using a framework that seamlessly allocates resources such that only the necessary computations to produce a given result are executed. Echo provides a versatile and extensible framework, allowing advanced users to add their own tools and data classes tailored to their own specific needs. Applying these transformative principles and powerful features, Echo greatly improves analyst efficiency and quality of results in many application areas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Automatic optical detection and classification of marine animals around MHK converters using machine vision

Optical systems provide valuable information for evaluating interactions and associations between organisms and MHK energy converters and for capturing potentially rare encounters between marine organisms and MHK device. The deluge of optical data from cabled monitoring packages makes expert review time-consuming and expensive. We propose algorithms and a processing framework to automatically extract events of interest from underwater video. The open-source software framework consists of background subtraction, filtering, feature extraction and hierarchical classification algorithms. This principle classification pipeline was validated on real-world data collected with an experimental underwater monitoring package. An event detection rate of 100% was achieved using robust principal components analysis (RPCA), Fourier feature extraction and a support vector machine (SVM) binary classifier. The detected events were then further classified into more complex classes – algae | invertebrate | vertebrate, one species | multiple species of fish, and interest rank. Greater than 80% accuracy was achieved using a combination of machine learning techniques.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: Final Report on Customer Acceptance, Retention, and Response to Time-Based Rates from Consumer Behavior Studies

Time-based rate programs, enabled by utility investments in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), are increasingly being considered by utilities as tools to reduce peak demand and enable customers to better manage consumption and costs. Under the Smart Grid Investment Grant Program (SGIG), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) partnered with several electric utilities to conduct consumer behavior studies (CBS). The goals involved applying randomized and controlled experimental designs for estimating customer responses more precisely and credibly to advance understanding of time-based rates and customer systems, and provide new information for improving program designs, implementation strategies, and evaluations. The intent was to produce more robust and credible analysis of impacts, costs, benefits, and lessons learned and assist utility and regulatory decision makers in evaluating investment opportunities involving time-based rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advanced Imaging Algorithms for Radiation Imaging Systems

Radiation-imaging devices are important to the nuclear security and safeguards communities due to their ability to detect and localize radioactive sources. Because of their low natural background, difficulty to shield, and unique association with SNM, fast-neutron imaging provides a promising means for the detection of SNM. To make these R&D systems useful for end-user applications, robust reconstruction and analysis algorithms must be developed that provide detailed information on the location, energy spectrum, and intervening material. To date, deconvolution, match filtering, and MLEM have been demonstrated. However, the information provided is limited to an approximate location of the source.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Comparison of Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit (LWRHU) Historical Testing to Special Form Testing Requirements

This paper compares the Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit (LWRHU) historical testing to Department of Transportation (DOT) Special Form criteria per 49 CFR Part 173, Shippers-General Requirements for Shipments and Packages, Section 469, Tests for special form Class 7 (radioactive) materials as specified in DOE-STD-1027, Hazard Categorization of DOE Nuclear Facilities. Compliance with the aforementioned criteria allows for the exclusion of radioactive sources from the facility’s nuclear material inventory. As part of a new program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), LWRHUs are planned to be moved into TA-55, PF-5 Power Source Assembly Area (PSAA) for assembly and testing activities. The PSAA Facility is categorized as a low hazard, non-nuclear facility per DOE STD-1027 and is described in TA55-PF-5-FHC-11-001, Facility Hazard Categorization of the PSAA at PF-5, TA-55. The Facility Hazard Categorization document states, there must be documentation that radioactive sources are engineered to pass the special form testing specified by DOT in 49 CFR 173.469, Tests for special form Class 7 (radioactive) materials or ANSI N43.6, Sealed Radioactive Sources - Classification. This paper documents the extensive historical environmental safety testing of the LWRHU and demonstrates its ability to survive potential launch safety accident scenarios. The testing results are used herein to demonstrate through a comparative analysis that the robust design of the LWRHU meets or exceeds the special form testing specifications in 49 CFR 173.469, enabling the LWRHU to be transported and handled in PF-5 in support of testing and assembly program.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Particle Sensitivity Analysis

We propose to develop a computational sensitivity analysis capability for Monte Carlo sampling-based particle simulation relevant to Aleph, Cheetah-MC, Empire, Emphasis, ITS, SPARTA, and LAMMPS codes. These software tools model plasmas, radiation transport, low-density fluids, and molecular motion. Our report demonstrates how adjoint optimization methods can be combined with Monte Carlo sampling-based adjoint particle simulation. Our goal is to develop a sensitivity analysis to drive robust design-based optimization for Monte Carlo sampling-based particle simulation - a currently unavailable capability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

3D Theoretical and simulation tools for microbunched cooling

The concept of microbunched electron cooling (MBEC, introduced in Ref. [1]) is currently under investigation as a candidate for the strong hadron cooling (SHC) component of EIC. Most of the theoretical treatments of this scheme are based on a simplified model for the longitudinal space charge [2–4]. In this model, the particle beams are treated as collections of thin charged disks, with the interaction function for two such disks being calculated by averaging the forces between constituent point charges. Although the disk model is flexible and captures a large part of the underlying physics, it lacks the fidelity and robustness of an analysis that explicitly treats the beams as collections of point charges. In what follows, we explore such a model, both from a theory-based and a simulation perspective.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Stabilized Hyperfoam Modeling of the General Plastics EF4003 (3 PCF) Flexible Foam

Constitutive model parameterizations for the General Plastics EF4003 low density 3 pound per cubic foot are needed for design and qualification purposes in normal and abnormal mechanical simulations. The material is expected to be deformed in two ways: first during preloading, and second under impact conditions of the system (transient dynamic). All analyses are to be performed at room temperature. The goal is to provide the analysis community a robust constitutive model parameterization to represent the compression behavior of the EF4003 foam from small deformations up to massive compressive deformations when the foam is densifying. It is worth noting the EF4003 exhibits anisotropy in its stress-strain behavior between the rise and transverse directions (See figure 2.8c-d) as well as plateau behavior that is very likely to cause material stability issues, due to the buckling transition, (and has historically done so) when using Sandia’s current workhorse models for flexible foams, Hyperfoam and Flex Foam. A Stability-informed Hyperfoam parameterization procedure is developed and executed to calibrate a hyperfoam model for the EF4003 room temperature, transversely loaded data. A rise orientation parameterization was not attempted due to localization in the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Transitioning from Stage-III to Stage-IV: Cosmology from galaxy×CMB lensing and shear×CMB lensing (Final Report for Grant SC0021429 "Cosomology with Galaxy and CMB Surveys: Mitigating Systematic Effects Through Combining Datasets")

We examine the cosmological constraining power from two cross-correlation probes between galaxy and cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys: the cross-correlation of lens galaxy density with CMB lensing convergence $\langle δ_g$$^κ\text{CMB}\rangle$, and source galaxy weak lensing shear with CMB lensing convergence $\langle^{γκ}$$_{\text{CMB}}\rangle$. These two cross-correlation probes provide an independent cross-check of other large-scale structure constraints and are insensitive to galaxy-only or CMB-only systematic effects. In addition, when combined with other large-scale structure probes, the cross-correlations can break degeneracies in cosmological and nuisance parameters, improving both the precision and robustness of the analysis. In this work, we study how the constraining power of $\langle δ_g$$^κ\text{CMB}\rangle + \langle^{γκ}$$_{\text{CMB}}\rangle$ changes from Stage-III (ongoing) to Stage-IV (future) surveys. Given the flexibility in selecting the lens galaxy sample, we also explore systematically the impact on cosmological constraints when we vary the redshift range and magnitude limit of the lens galaxies using mock galaxy catalogs. We find that in our setup, the contribution to cosmological constraints from $\langle δ_g$$^κ\text{CMB}\rangle$ and $\langle^{γκ}$$_{\text{CMB}}\rangle$ are comparable in the Stage-III data sets; but in Stage-IV surveys, the noise in$\langle δ_g$$^κ\text{CMB}\rangle$ becomes subdominant to cosmic variance, preventing $\langle δ_g$$^κ\text{CMB}\rangle$ to further improve the constraints. This implies that to maximize the cosmological constraints from future $\langle δ_g$$^κ\text{CMB}\rangle$ + $\langle^{γκ}$$_{\text{CMB}}\rangle$ analyses, we should focus more on the requirements on$^{γκ}$$_{\text{CMB}}\rangle$ instead of$\langle δ_g$$^κ\text{CMB}\rangle$. Furthermore, the selection of the lens sample should be optimized in terms of our ability to characterize its redshift or galaxy bias instead of its number density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Natural Language Processing for Text Based Event Extraction: Identifying Events of Interest Related to Worldwide State-Sponsored Civil Nuclear Power

Beginning in FY20, SRNL was funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Defense Nuclear Non-Proliferation Research and Development to develop a prototype natural language processing/natural language understating machine learning-based modeling and analysis pipeline to extract and forecast events of interest from massive open data sources. The working hypothesis within the approach is that contextual shifts in key words and phrases act as indicators of events of interest over time. Therefore, by identifying points in time where contextual shifts occur, events of interest can be extracted along with explicit and implicit connections of entities and activities. The development of the preliminary prototype pipeline proved successful, meriting further testing of the pipeline on more broad topical domains and in a worldwide data environment. Therefore, SRNL, in collaboration with the Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics at Virginia Tech, have continued development with a test case of identifying events of interest related to worldwide state-sponsored civil nuclear power in open data sources. In the first year of this follow-on effort, the team has curated domain-specific data corpuses using an automated scheme and applied the modeling and analysis pipeline. This robust, focused, and efficient approach consists of an ensemble of analyses applied to time dependent word embedding models that are trained on the data corpuses. In this report, the team has demonstrated the capability of the existing pipeline (as development has continued in parallel) by exploring several specific case-studies centered around Rosatom’s international activities regarding the planning, construction, operation, and/or shutdown of nuclear reactors. A basic timeline events has been generated by manually cataloging known “milestone” events that have occurred at reactors in Turkey, Finland, Hungary, and Egypt and compared with the output of the modeling pipeline. In this approach, the team has characterized the lead time using the prototype pipeline, as well as the ability to capture relevant information, which proved 100% successful. A deep dive example of the Akkuyu reactor (Turkey) is presented that shows the breadth of information that can be captured using the approach. In this case study, events were extracted pertaining to the planning/construction of Akkuyu including protests from the population, information campaigns in response to the protests, forged regulatory documents and lawsuits, budgetary/shareholder information, geopolitical tensions, and the various construction milestones. This has demonstrated the pipeline’s utility as a research aid or real-time event extraction tool, where summary-level information and detailed text extractions from millions of articles or Tweets across long time periods can be generated with significantly less effort than current techniques.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multi-Differential Charged Current $\nu_{\mu}$ - Argon Cross Section without Pions in the Final State Measurement in MicroBooNE

MicroBooNE, an 85-tonne liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector is on-axis to the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) beamline facility at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. MicroBooNE is elucidating neutrino interactions with argon through cross-section measurements to refine interaction models and reduce uncertainties. In this poster, we present the status of the single and double multi-differential charged current (CC) cross section with zero pions in the final state (CC-0$\pi$) as a function of muon momentum ($0.1<p_\mu<2.0\,\mathrm{GeV/c}$) and the cosine of the muon angle ($-1<\cos\theta_\mu<1$). We present the details of the event selection and cross section extraction along with a set of tests using fake data to establish the robustness of the analysis methodology. We also discuss prospects for a future combined measurement with the Gd-H$_2$O target at the ANNIE experiment, to explore MicroBooNE’s proton multiplicity alongside ANNIE’s neutron multiplicity.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Near Detector Selection for Neutral Current Disappearance Search at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program

Various short baseline neutrino experiments observe anomalies that challenge the three-flavor neutrino oscillation model, consistent with a hypothetical “sterile” neutrino that does not interact via the weak force. This poster presents a near detector event selection at the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND), developed for the first search for neutral current (NC) disappearance at short-baseline experiments. NC disappearance provides ``smoking gun” insight into the sterile neutrino question because NC interactions are equally sensitive to all three active neutrinos, meaning any change in the NC interaction rate between near and far detectors cannot be explained by oscillations among known flavor states. This analysis focuses on the NC1p topology, the most common NC interaction type at the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program. NC topologies are inherently challenging due to their low light yield and the absence of an outgoing charged lepton, which complicates identification and leads to poor energy reconstruction as the outgoing neutrino carries away a large portion of the neutrino’s initial energy. This work presents an NC1p event selection at the near detector, highlighting SBND’s impressive detector capabilities, including trigger efficiency studies. Combined with a novel kinematic energy reconstruction technique leveraging the detector’s outstanding hadronic detail, this analysis establishes a robust near detector foundation to target an NC disappearance measurement consistent with the 3$+$1 sterile neutrino model. This SBND selection will soon be combined with the far detector to conduct an NC disappearance search, providing unique insight and complementary information to traditional charged current searches and advancing the SBN Program’s goal to resolve the sterile neutrino question, including 3$+$1 searches and beyond.

Nicole Pallat, Nicole Pallat [Minnesota U.] (ORCID↗

Mapping of a Novel Zero-Liquid Discharge Desalination System Based on Humidification–Dehumidification onto the Field of Existing Desalination Technologies

It is well-established that increasing demands for fresh water are paving the way for desalination technologies. However, this correlates with an increase in brine production whose treatment and disposal can be complicated and expensive. This paper presents a thermodynamic model to bound the operation and development of a novel Humidification–Dehumidification-based system featuring Zero-Liquid Discharge and off-grid capabilities. The model employs conservation laws to find feasible state points to meet a baseline operation of 10 kg/h of product water separated from a hypersaline feed stream with 100 g/kg salt concentration. The system incurs in a 1039 kWh/m3 energy intensity that can be supplied completely by an electric source or in combination with heating steam. Follow-up sensitivity analysis highlights the robustness of the system in handling variations of 25% in product flowrate and 75% in feed salinity, practically without incurring any additional energy demands. The proposed system operating costs between 72 USD/m3 and 96 USD/m3 are comparable to those of existing brine disposal techniques. Furthermore, an operational map of existing desalination technologies suggests a niche characterized by high recovery rates and high feed salinities that are generally unfulfilled by conventional desalination methods. Overall, the proposed system shows potential for off-grid hypersaline brine treatment. This study sets the stage for future development of physics-based and data-driven predictive models as the proposed system iterates into a pilot plant deployment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

THE FINAL SPIN FROM BINARY BLACK HOLES IN QUASI-CIRCULAR ORBITS

We revisit the problem of predicting the spin magnitude and direction of the black hole (BH) resulting from the merger of two BHs with arbitrary masses and spins inspiraling in quasi-circular orbits. We do this by analyzing a catalog of 619 recent numerical-relativity simulations collected from the literature and spanning a large variety of initial conditions. By combining information from the post-Newtonian approximation, the extreme mass-ratio limit, and perturbative calculations, we improve our previously proposed phenomenological formulae for the final remnant spin. In contrast with alternative suggestions in the literature, and in analogy with our previous expressions, the new formula is a simple algebraic function of the initial system parameters and is not restricted to binaries with spins aligned/anti-aligned with the orbital angular momentum but can be employed for fully generic binaries. The accuracy of the new expression is significantly improved, especially for almost extremal progenitor spins and for small mass ratios, yielding an rms error σ ≈ 0.002 for aligned/anti-aligned binaries and σ ≈ 0.006 for generic binaries. Our new formula is suitable for cosmological applications and can be employed robustly in the analysis of the gravitational waveforms from advanced interferometric detectors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Parametric uncertainty modeling for application to robust control

Viewgraphs and a paper on parametric uncertainty modeling for application to robust control are included. Advanced robust control system analysis and design is based on the availability of an uncertainty description which separates the uncertain system elements from the nominal system. Although this modeling structure is relatively straightforward to obtain for multiple unstructured uncertainties modeled throughout the system, it is difficult to formulate for many problems involving real parameter variations. Furthermore, it is difficult to ensure that the uncertainty model is formulated such that the dimension of the resulting model is minimal. A procedure for obtaining an uncertainty model for real uncertain parameter problems in which the uncertain parameters can be represented in a multilinear form is presented. Furthermore, the procedure is formulated such that the resulting uncertainty model is minimal (or near minimal) relative to a given state space realization of the system. The approach is demonstrated for a multivariable third-order example problem having four uncertain parameters.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

On the Numerical Formulation of Parametric Linear Fractional Transformation (LFT) Uncertainty Models for Multivariate Matrix Polynomial Problems

Robust control system analysis and design is based on an uncertainty description, called a linear fractional transformation (LFT), which separates the uncertain (or varying) part of the system from the nominal system. These models are also useful in the design of gain-scheduled control systems based on Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) methods. Low-order LFT models are difficult to form for problems involving nonlinear parameter variations. This paper presents a numerical computational method for constructing and LFT model for a given LPV model. The method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, and uses simple matrix computations to obtain an exact low-order LFT representation of the given LPV system without the use of model reduction. Although the method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, multivariate rational problems can also be solved using this method by reformulating the rational problem into a polynomial form.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

Computational Investigation and Validation of Twin-Tail Buffet Response Including Dynamics and Control

Multidisciplinary tools for prediction of single rectangular-tail buffet are extended to single swept-back-tail buffet in transonic-speed flow, and multidisciplinary tools for prediction and control of twin-tail buffet are developed and presented. The configuration model consists of a sharp-edged delta wing with single or twin tails that are oriented normal to the wing surface. The tails are treated as cantilevered beams fixed at the root and allowed to oscillate in both bending and torsion. This complex multidisciplinary problem is solved sequentially using three sets of equations on a dynamic single or multi-block grid structure. The first set is the unsteady, compressible, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations which are used for obtaining the flow field vector and the aerodynamic loads on the tails. The Navier-Stokes equations are solved accurately in time using the implicit, upwind, flux-difference splitting, finite volume scheme. The second set is the coupled bending and torsion aeroelastic equations of cantilevered beams which are used for obtaining the bending and torsion deflections of the tails. The aeroelastic equations'are solved accurately in time using, a fifth-order-accurate Runge-Kutta scheme. The third set is the grid-displacement equations and the rigid-body dynamics equations, which are used for updating the grid coordinates due to the tail deflections and rigid-body motions. The tail-buffet phenomenon is predicted for highly-swept, single vertical tail placed at the plane of geometric symmetry, and for highly-swept, vertical twin tails placed at three different spanwise separation distances. The investigation demonstrates the effects of structural inertial coupling and uncoupling of the bending and torsion modes of vibration, spanwise positions of the twin-tail, angle of attack, and pitching and rolling dynamic motions of the configuration model on the tail buffet loading and response. The fundamental issue of twin-tail buffet alleviation is addressed using two active flow-control methods. These methods are the tangential leading-edge blowing and the flow suction from the leading-edge vortex cores along their paths. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons with the available experimental data are presented. The comparisons indicate that the present multidisciplinary aeroelastic analysis tools are robust, accurate and efficient.

Kandil, Osama A.↗