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DOE OSTI2021

Of Actors, Cities and Energy Systems: Advancing the Transformative Potential of Urban Electrification

The electrification of transportation and the integration of electric vehicles (EVs) with buildings connected to clean grids has been touted as one of the key solutions to the global decarbonization challenge. Cities are on the frontlines of current and future electrification, as they depend on and drive electricity generation, distribution, and use. City actors also occupy a central role in the actions to enable electrification to support energy transitions in efficient, equitable, environmentally sound, and resilient ways. Currently, however, research and development on the interactions between actors, cities and energy systems is predominantly conducted in disciplinary siloes. This topical review analyzes the transformational potential of urban electrification. It focuses on efforts to electrify transportation and integrate EVs with buildings connected to a clean grid. We find that actions in these area are driving change; they are adopted by wealthier populations and on an experimental basis by specific communities. Their larger-scale growth is constrained by institutional, behavioral, and infrastructural factors. We also find that existing siloed disciplinary approaches are often incompatible with advancing holistic research. To achieve that, divergent communities of scholars need to come together to integrate their research and create broader perspectives. Through incorporation of the social sciences, these perspectives need to consider the societal limits and potentials brought to bear by human behavior and decision making. Only then can urban electrification be understood as the empirically rich and socially complex topic that it is. And only with this understanding will innovations and smart policy actions be able to tap into the transformational potential of urban electrification.

cities↗

DOE OSTI2013

Analysis of Riverine Sediment and Nutrient Exports in Missouri River Basin by Application of SWAT Model

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Bioenergy Technology Office has set a goal of developing the resources, technologies, and systems needed to grow a biofuels industry in a way that is economically feasible, socially responsible, and environmentally sustainable (US DOE, 2011). Environmental sustainability emphasizes maintaining the services provided by natural resources — one of the critical components to a sustainable bioenergy industry. Among the natural resources, water use and water quality are key factors that intrinsically link to energy and fuel production across its supply chain and are affected by climate change. In the context of water quality, the delivery of large volumes of nutrients from the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico is a significant national concern. Given the importance of the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) and its role in large-scale biofuel feedstock production, there is an urgent need to examine the interactions between biofuel feedstock production and water quality at a regional scale. Simulations of changes in water quality in response to future scenarios could provide valuable regional-specific information to assist decision makers in project planning and site selection.

Zhang, Zhonglong↗

NASA NTRS1982

Identification of terms to define unconstrained air transportation demands

The factors involved in the evaluation of unconstrained air transportation systems were carefully analyzed. By definition an unconstrained system is taken to be one in which the design can employ innovative and advanced concepts no longer limited by present environmental, social, political or regulatory settings. Four principal evaluation criteria are involved: (1) service utilization, based on the operating performance characteristics as viewed by potential patrons; (2) community impacts, reflecting decisions based on the perceived impacts of the system; (3) technological feasibility, estimating what is required to reduce the system to practice; and (4) financial feasibility, predicting the ability of the concepts to attract financial support. For each of these criteria, a set of terms or descriptors was identified, which should be used in the evaluation to render it complete. It is also demonstrated that these descriptors have the following properties: (a) their interpretation may be made by different groups of evaluators; (b) their interpretations and the way they are used may depend on the stage of development of the system in which they are used; (c) in formulating the problem, all descriptors should be addressed independent of the evaluation technique selected.

Jacobson, I. D.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Basic Physics Questions Addressed by Astrophysics

Dark matter, dark energy, the Big Bang, testing relativity -- all are physics questions accessible to astrophysicists -- but all require new equipment. As Harwit's "Cosmic Discovery" pointed out, almost all great surprises in astronomy came from new equipment or new uses of equipment designed for other purposes, and many of those had military applications. I will outline prospects for new equipment and discuss how that equipment can be developed and built. Bigger and lighter mirrors, wavefront sensing and control, new detector technology, cryogenics -- each has its own social network, its own special possibilities, and its own funding sources outside science. I will discuss some examples drawn from real-life experience with the James Webb Space Telescope, a telescope that was said to have a "giggle factor" when it was proposed in 1995. Now each of the 10 major technologies has been brought to maturity, flight hardware is being built, and launch is planned for 2014. As an instrument builder all my life, I will speculate a little on what may be within our reach over the next few decades.

Mather, John C.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Detecting Anomalies from End-to-End Internet Performance Measurements (PingER) Using Cluster Based Local Outlier Factor

PingER (Ping End-to-End Reporting) is a worldwide end-to-end Internet performance measurement framework. It was developed by the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford, USA and running from the last 20 years. It has more than 700 monitoring agents and remote sites which monitor the performance of Internet links around 170 countries of the world. At present, the size of the compressed PingER data set is about 60 GB comprising of 100,000 flat files. The data is publicly available for valuable Internet performance analyses. However, the data sets suffer from missing values and anomalies due to congestion, bottleneck links, queuing overflow, network software misconfiguration, hardware failure, cable cuts, and social upheavals. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to detect such performance drops or spikes labeled as anomalies or outliers for the PingER data set. In the proposed approach, the raw text files of the data set are transformed into a PingER dimensional model. The missing values are imputed using the k-NN algorithm. The data is partitioned into similar instances using the k-means clustering algorithm. Afterward, clustering is integrated with the Local Outlier Factor (LOF) using the Cluster Based Local Outlier Factor (CBLOF) algorithm to detect the anomalies or outliers from the PingER data. Lastly, anomalies are further analyzed to identify the time frame and location of the hosts generating the major percentage of the anomalies in the PingER data set ranging from 1998 to 2016.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A consumer-centric approach to quantify efficiency of receiving goods purchased via online

Virtual participation in shopping activities has increased exponentially in the past four years compared to the last couple of decades. E-tailing or online shopping offers the convenience of goods reaching a consumer instead of a consumer traveling to a store, but it has downsides like geographical service variability and negative social externalities such as increased energy consumption and emissions. This study proposes a novel approach to quantify e-tailing efficiency from the consumers’ viewpoint. The methodology is innovative in its integration of accessibility theory with energy and cost impedance factors and consideration of delivering and picking up goods purchased via online. The methodology is implemented for the San Francisco Bay Area and is subject to scenarios that see enhancements to various facets of online shopping delivery. Results demonstrate that increasing the frequency of e-commerce deliveries helps improve e-tailing efficiency in rural locations, while improvements in energy and cost aspects of delivery modes are seen to improve e-tailing efficiencies in the central parts of the region. The approach proposed can provide valuable insights on where people have limited benefits from online shopping and how emerging delivery mechanisms can change the quality of the e-commerce experience within a city. This research offers a replicable framework for assessing e-commerce systems in diverse geographic contexts, contributing to the development of equitable and environmentally sustainable urban freight systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Generalized Canonical Polyadic Tensor Decomposition

Tensor decomposition is a fundamental unsupervised machine learning method in data science, with applications including network analysis and sensor data processing. This work develops a generalized canonical polyadic (GCP) low-rank tensor decomposition that allows other loss functions besides squared error. For instance, we can use logistic loss or Kullback--Leibler divergence, enabling tensor decomposition for binary or count data. We present a variety of statistically motivated loss functions for various scenarios. We provide a generalized framework for computing gradients and handling missing data that enables the use of standard optimization methods for fitting the model. Furthermore, we demonstrate the flexibility of the GCP decomposition on several real-world examples including interactions in a social network, neural activity in a mouse, and monthly rainfall measurements in India.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Equity-Centered Engagement Through Climate Resilience Policy in Massachusetts

Communities who experience disproportionate climate change impacts tend to be excluded from resilience planning (Vale, 2014). Those efforts typically follow top-down processes within established governance practices that are inaccessible to marginalized folks and reinforce inequalities (Malloy & Ashcraft, 2020; Adger, 2003). Such participatory planning processes may offer the public little opportunity to influence the process itself or the outcomes (Smith & McDonough, 2001). They might ignore important public values or alternative ways of knowing which can be critical assets in resilience (Few et al., 2007). Designing communities for climate action and resilience means creating opportunities for everyone to meaningfully shape those decisions and experience related benefits. Having the opportunity to shape one’s community is necessary for human flourishing (Allen, 2016). Resilience planning that shifts power into communities and focuses on social vulnerability can affect how people survive and thrive in a climate changed world. The Massachusetts Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) 2.0 program is an attempt to change the status quo in resilience planning by bringing new voices into decision-making power, recognizing their labor, addressing root causes of vulnerability, and investing in social infrastructure. It aspires to build capacity for equity-focused community engagement within teams of municipal staff and community liaisons, and ultimately build social capital and community cohesion. My mixed methods research investigates implementation of this state grant program in several western Massachusetts towns. I am using document review, participant observation, and interviews to understand the MVP 2.0 process as written, how different towns navigate it, and how individuals make sense of their experiences in it. I seek to understand how those experiences explain relationships between engagement approaches, mediating factors, and process outcomes. I am interested in the conditions that allow for community empowerment and how a model like MVP 2.0 can shift conditions that hold systems in place. In a practical sense, our findings will help municipalities reflect on their work during MVP 2.0 and plan for future community engagement. They may be informative for designing future iterations of the MVP program and for other municipalities, offices of community engagement, and practitioners. The findings will also contribute to the participation, resilience, and climate justice literatures, by adding perspectives on equity-centered resilience and community engagement approaches in smaller towns and rural settings. References: Adger, W. N. (2003). Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change. Economic Geography, 79, 387-404. Allen, D. (2016). Toward a connected society. Our compelling interests: The value of diversity for democracy and a prosperous society, 71-105. Few, R., Brown, K., & Tompkins, E. L. (2007). Public participation and climate change adaptation: avoiding the illusion of inclusion. Climate Policy, 7(1), 46–59. Malloy, J. T., & Ashcraft, C. M. (2020). A framework for implementing socially just climate adaptation. Climatic Change, 160(1), 1–14. Smith, P. D., & McDonough, M. H. (2001). Beyond public participation: Fairness in natural resource decision making. Society & natural resources, 14(3), 239-249. Vale, L. J. (2014). The politics of resilient cities: whose resilience and whose city? Building Research & Information, 42(2), 191–201.

Callaham, Shannon↗

NASA NTRS1976

Technology and politics: The regional airport experience

The findings of a comparative study of the following six regional airports were presented: Dallas/Fort Worth, Kansas City, Washington, D.C., Montreal, Tampa, and St. Louis. Each case was approached as a unique historical entity, in order to investigate common elements such as: the use of predictive models in planning, the role of symbolism to heighten dramatic effects, the roles of community and professional elites, and design flexibility. Some of the factors considered were: site selection, consolidation of airline service, accessibility, land availability and cost, safety, nuisance, and pollution constraints, economic growth, expectation of regional growth, the demand forecasting conundrum, and design decisions. The hypotheses developed include the following: the effect of political, social, and economic conflicts, the stress on large capacity and dramatic, high-technology design, projections of rapid growth to explain the need for large capital outlays.

Starling, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Crew systems: integrating human and technical subsystems for the exploration of space

Space exploration missions will require combining human and technical subsystems into overall "crew systems" capable of performing under the rigorous conditions of outer space. This report describes substantive and conceptual relationships among humans, intelligent machines, and communication systems, and explores how these components may be combined to complement and strengthen one another. We identify key research issues in the combination of humans and technology and examine the role of individual differences, group processes, and environmental conditions. We conclude that a crew system is, in effect, a social cyborg, a living system consisting of multiple individuals whose capabilities are extended by advanced technology.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗

DOE OSTI2013

Advancing sustainable bioenergy: Evolving stakeholder interests and the relevance of research

The sustainability of future bioenergy production rests on more than continual improvements in its environmental, economic, and social impacts. The emergence of new biomass feedstocks, an expanding array of conversion pathways, and expected increases in overall bioenergy production are connecting diverse technical, social, and policy communities. These stakeholder groups have different and potentially conflicting values and cultures, and therefore different goals and decision making processes. Our aim is to discuss the implications of this diversity for bioenergy researchers. The paper begins with a discussion of bioenergy stakeholder groups and their varied interests, and illustrates how this diversity complicates efforts to define and promote sustainable bioenergy production. We then discuss what this diversity means for research practice. Researchers, we note, should be aware of stakeholder values, information needs, and the factors affecting stakeholder decision making if the knowledge they generate is to reach its widest potential use. We point out how stakeholder participation in research can increase the relevance of its products, and argue that stakeholder values should inform research questions and the choice of analytical assumptions. Finally, we make the case that additional natural science and technical research alone will not advance sustainable bioenergy production, and that important research gaps relate to understanding stakeholder decision making and the need, from a broader social science perspective, to develop processes to identify and accommodate different value systems. While sustainability requires more than improved scientific and technical understanding, the need to understand stakeholder values and manage diversity presents important research opportunities.

Johnson, Timothy L↗

DOE OSTI2011

Sustainability Assessment of Coal-Fired Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) has the ability to dramatically reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from power production. Most studies find the potential for 70 to 80 percent reductions in CO2 emissions on a life-cycle basis, depending on the technology. Because of this potential, utilities and policymakers are considering the wide-spread implementation of CCS technology on new and existing coal plants to dramatically curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the power generation sector. However, the implementation of CCS systems will have many other social, economic, and environmental impacts beyond curbing GHG emissions that must be considered to achieve sustainable energy generation. For example, emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur oxides (SOx), and particulate matter (PM) are also important environmental concerns for coal-fired power plants. For example, several studies have shown that eutrophication is expected to double and acidification would increase due to increases in NOx emissions for a coal plant with CCS provided by monoethanolamine (MEA) scrubbing. Potential for human health risks is also expected to increase due to increased heavy metals in water from increased coal mining and MEA hazardous waste, although there is currently not enough information to relate this potential to actual realized health impacts. In addition to environmental and human health impacts, supply chain impacts and other social, economic, or strategic impacts will be important to consider. A thorough review of the literature for life-cycle analyses of power generation processes using CCS technology via the MEA absorption process, and other energy generation technologies as applicable, yielded large variability in methods and core metrics. Nonetheless, a few key areas of impact for CCS were developed from the studies that we reviewed. These are: the impact of MEA generation on increased eutrophication and acidification from ammonia emissions and increased toxicity from MEA production and the impact of increased coal use including the increased generation of NOx from combustion and transportation, impacts of increased mining of coal and limestone, and the disposal of toxic fly ash and boiler ash waste streams. Overall, the implementing CCS technology could contribute to a dramatic decrease in global GHG emissions, while most other environmental and human health impact categories increase only slightly on a global scale. However, the impacts on human toxicity and ecotoxicity have not been studied as extensively and could have more severe impacts on a regional or local scale. More research is needed to draw strong conclusions with respect to the specific relative impact of different CCS technologies. Specifically, a more robust data set that disaggregates data in terms of component processes and treats a more comprehensive set of environmental impacts categories from a life-cycle perspective is needed. In addition, the current LCA framework lacks the required temporal and spatial scales to determine the risk of environmental impact from carbon sequestration. Appropriate factors to use when assessing the risk of water acidification (groundwater/oceans/aquifers depending on sequestration site), risk of increased human toxicity impact from large accidental releases from pipeline or wells, and the legal and public policy risk associated with licensing CO2 sequestration sites are also not currently addressed. In addition to identifying potential environmental, social, or risk-related issues that could impede the large-scale deployment of CCS, performing LCA-based studies on energy generation technologies can suggest places to focus our efforts to achieve technically feasible, economically viable, and environmentally conscious energy generation technologies for maximum impact.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2000

Changes in the Areal Extent of Arctic Sea Ice: Observations from Satellites

Wintertime sea ice covers 15 million square kilometers of the north polar region, an area exceeding one and a half times the area of the U. S. Even at the end of the summer melt season, sea ice still covers 7 million square kilometers. This vast ice cover is an integral component of the climate system, being moved around by winds and waves, restricting heat and other exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere, reflecting most of the solar radiation incident on it, transporting cold, relatively fresh water equatorward, and affecting the overturning of ocean waters underneath, with impacts that can be felt worldwide. Sea ice also is a major factor in the Arctic ecosystem, affecting life forms ranging from minute organisms living within the ice, sometimes to the tune of millions in a single ice floe, to large marine mammals like walruses that rely on sea ice as a platform for resting, foraging, social interaction, and breeding. Since 1978, satellite technology has allowed the monitoring of the vast Arctic sea ice cover on a routine basis. The satellite observations reveal that, overall, the areal extent of Arctic sea ice has been decreasing since 1978, at an average rate of 2.7% per decade through the end of 1998. Through 1998, the greatest rates of decrease occurred in the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan and the Kara and Barents Seas, with most other regions of the Arctic also experiencing ice extent decreases. The two regions experiencing ice extent increases over this time period were the Bering Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Furthermore, the satellite data reveal that the sea ice season shortened by over 25 days per decade in the central Sea of Okhotsk and the eastern Barents Sea, and by lesser amounts throughout much of the rest of the Arctic seasonal sea ice region, although not in the Bering Sea or the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Concern has been raised that if the trends toward shortened sea ice seasons and lesser sea ice coverage continue, this could entail major consequences to the polar climate and to the lifestyles (and perhaps even the survivability) of polar bears and other polar species.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Data Farming and Defense Applications

.Data farm,ing uses simulation modeling, high performance computing, experimental design and analysis to examine questions of interest with large possibility spaces. This methodology allows for the examination of whole landscapes of potential outcomes and provides the capability of executing enough experiments so that outliers might be captured and examined for insights. It can be used to conduct sensitivity studies, to support validation and verification of models, to iteratively optimize outputs using heuristic search and discovery, and as an aid to decision-makers in understanding complex relationships of factors. In this paper we describe efforts at the Naval Postgraduate School in developing these new and emerging tools. We also discuss data farming in the context of application to questions inherent in military decision-making. The particular application we illustrate here is social network modeling to support the countering of improvised explosive devices.

Horne, Gary↗

DOE OSTI2012

An investigation of environmental and sustainability discourses associated with the substantive purposes of environmental assessment

This paper investigates the discursive construction of the substantive purposes of environmental assessment (EA). It addresses these purposes by exploring the complex and often multifaceted linkages between political factors and plural views of democracy, public participation, and the role of science that are embedded in environmental and sustainability discourses. The interaction between policy-making and public actors leads to the formulation of divergent and potentially competing rationales for public participation, and for social appraisal more generally. Participatory approaches have also given impetus to the development of several interpretations on the role of science in assessment procedures. Science is important in mediating public participation and the two are therefore reciprocally linked. This leads to discourses that become manifest in the construction of substantive purposes. Discourse analysis in EA is a relevant method for examining trends and patterns in sustainable development. It is argued that public participation is an important, if not decisive, variable in the articulation and civil legitimacy of certain purposes. A general proposition that results from this paper is that EA, although typically presented as an objective scientific tool, is an intrinsically normative process. Enhanced knowledge on the construction, and reconstruction over time, of substantive purposes is required if environmental and sustainability discourses are to be used and understood as meaningful analytical instruments to assess the socio-political implications of EA. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Substantive purposes related to environmental assessment may be best analyzed through discourse analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Environmental and sustainability discourses are contingent on the level of participatory democracy and civic science. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Public participation is a decisive variable in the construction of the substantive purpose of environmental assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Context-Centered Research Approach to Phishing and Operational Technology in Industrial Control Systems

Advanced persistent threats (APT’s) that leverage phishing against operational technology (OT) are cyber-attacks that endanger critical infrastructure assets nationwide. Today phishing, a human focused exploit, constitutes 91% of successful attack vectors against Federal assets. This means Human Introduced Vulnerabilities (HICV’s) are the weakest cyber defense link. The success of these attacks also suggests HICV’s are not well understood nor mitigated. To characterize HICV’s and provide the necessary context in which they exist, this paper introduces a research approach derived from the mature science of Social Ecology. The desired end result of this research is an HICV focused risk assessment framework.

Advanced Persistent Threats↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1995

Immune responses in humans after 60 days of confinement

A confinement experiment in a normobaric diving chamber was undertaken to better understand the effect of confinement and isolation on human psychology and physiology. Pre- and postconfinement blood samples were obtained from four test subjects and control donors to analyze immune responses. No modification in the levels of CD2+, CD3+, CD4+, CD8+, CD19+, and CD56+ cells was observed after confinement. Mitogen-induced T-lymphocyte proliferation and interleukin-2 receptor expression were not altered significantly. Whole blood interferon-alpha and gamma-induction and plasma cortisol levels were also unchanged, as was natural killer cell activity. These data suggest that in humans, no specific components of the immune response are affected by a 2-month isolation and confinement of a small group.

NASA Discipline Number 18-10↗