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NASA NTRS2014

NASA Team 2 Sea Ice Concentration Algorithm Retrieval Uncertainty

Satellite microwave radiometers are widely used to estimate sea ice cover properties (concentration, extent, and area) through the use of sea ice concentration (IC) algorithms. Rare are the algorithms providing associated IC uncertainty estimates. Algorithm uncertainty estimates are needed to assess accurately global and regional trends in IC (and thus extent and area), and to improve sea ice predictions on seasonal to interannual timescales using data assimilation approaches. This paper presents a method to provide relative IC uncertainty estimates using the enhanced NASA Team (NT2) IC algorithm. The proposed approach takes advantage of the NT2 calculations and solely relies on the brightness temperatures (TBs) used as input. NT2 IC and its associated relative uncertainty are obtained for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) TB. NT2 IC relative uncertainties estimated on a footprint-by-footprint swath-by-swath basis were averaged daily over each 12.5-km grid cell of the polar stereographic grid. For both hemispheres and throughout the year, the NT2 relative uncertainty is less than 5%. In the Southern Hemisphere, it is low in the interior ice pack, and it increases in the marginal ice zone up to 5%. In the Northern Hemisphere, areas with high uncertainties are also found in the high IC area of the Central Arctic. Retrieval uncertainties are greater in areas corresponding to NT2 ice types associated with deep snow and new ice. Seasonal variations in uncertainty show larger values in summer as a result of melt conditions and greater atmospheric contributions. Our analysis also includes an evaluation of the NT2 algorithm sensitivity to AMSR-E sensor noise. There is a 60% probability that the IC does not change (to within the computed retrieval precision of 1%) due to sensor noise, and the cumulated probability shows that there is a 90% chance that the IC varies by less than +/-3%. We also examined the daily IC variability, which is dominated by sea ice drift and ice formation/melt. Daily IC variability is the highest, year round, in the MIZ (often up to 20%, locally 30%). The temporal and spatial distributions of the retrieval uncertainties and the daily IC variability is expected to be useful for algorithm intercomparisons, climate trend assessments, and possibly IC assimilation in models.

Sea Ice↗
NASA NTRS1992

Simulations of the seasonal polar caps on Mars

One of the most puzzling mysteries about the planet Mars is the hemispherical asymmetry in the polar caps. Every spring the seasonal polar cap of CO2 recedes until the end of summer, when only a small part, the residual polar cap, remains. During the year that Viking observed Mars, the residual polar cap was composed of water ice in the Northern Hemisphere (Kieffer et al., Science, 194, 1341, 1976), but was primarily carbon dioxide ice in the Southern Hemisphere (Kieffer, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 8263, 1979). Scientists have sought to explain this asymmetry by modeling observations of the latitudinal recession of the polar cap and seasonal variations in atmospheric pressure (since the seasonal polar caps are primarily frozen atmosphere, they are directly related to changes in atmospheric mass). These models reproduce most aspects of the observed annual variation in atmospheric pressure fairly accurately. Furthermore, the predicted latitudinal recession of the northern polar cap in the spring agrees well with observations, including the fact that CO2 ice is predicted to completely sublime away. However, these models all predict that the carbon dioxide ice will also sublime away during the summer in the Southern Hemisphere, unlike what is observed. It is shown here how the radiative effects of ozone, clouds, and airborne dust, light penetration into and through the polar cap, and the dependence of albedo on solar zenith angle affect CO2 ice formation and sublimation, and how they help explain the hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps. These effects have not been studied with prior polar cap models. The combination of the effects of solar zenith angle on albedo and the radiative effects of clouds and dust act to extend the lifetime of CO2 ice on the south pole relatively more than on the north pole, possibly explaining the hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps without the need of a hemispherical asymmetry in polar cap albedo. This does not imply that a hemispherical asymmetry in polar cap albedo does not exist, but that one is not necessary. Observations of the regression of the polar caps and the annual cycle in atmospheric pressure are reproduced fairly well by the model, as shown in the figures, although further improvement is needed. When CO2 ice is retained at the south pole, the model predictions of the annual cycle in atmospheric pressure have a phase shift relative to the data, no matter what model input parameters are used. We are investigating other processes not included in prior polar cap models.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗
NASA NTRS1992

Why is the north polar cap on Mars different than the south polar cap?

One of the most puzzling mysteries about the planet Mars is the hemispherical asymmetry in the polar caps. Every spring, the seasonal polar cap of CO2 recedes until the end of summer, when only a small part, the residual polar cap, remains. During the year that Viking observed Mars, the residual polar cap was composed of water ice in the Northern Hemisphere (Kieffer et al., Science, 194, 1341, 1976) but was primarily carbon dioxide ice in the Southern Hemisphere (Kieffer, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 8263, 1979). Scientists have sought to explain this asymmetry by modeling observations of the latitudinal recession of the polar cap and seasonal variations in atmospheric pressure (since the seasonal polar caps are primarily frozen atmosphere, they are directly related to changes in atmospheric mass). These models reproduce most aspects of the observed annual variation in atmospheric pressure fairly accurately. Furthermore, the predicted latitudinal recession of the northern polar cap in the spring agrees well with observations, including the fact that the CO2 ice is predicted to completely sublime away. However, these models all predict that the carbon dioxide ice will also sublime away during the summer in the Southern Hemisphere, unlike what is observed. This paper will show how the radiative effects of ozone, clouds, and airborne dust, light penetration into and through the polar cap, and the dependence of albedo on solar zenith angle affect CO2 ice formation and sublimation, and how they help explain the hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps. These effects have not been studied with prior polar cap models.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗
NASA NTRS1991

The use of satellite altimetry in the study of weakly defined and variable oceanic gyres

Most of what is known about oceanic gyres comes from studies of the two main Northern Hemisphere subtropical gyres. Also important in the overall circulation of the world's oceans are the Southern Hemisphere subtropical gyres and the cyclonic Alaskan Gyre in the northern Pacific. Due in part to their weaker surface topography signatures and their variable character, these gyres have not been observed and studied as well as the northern subtropical gyres. The combination of satellite altimetry with in situ ocean measurements will lead to improved resolution of the interannual and seasonal change in the circulation of these ocean gyres. Also, it will provide initialization input and verification for numerical modeling work designed to better understand internal gyre dynamics. The objective of this proposal is to combine satellite and in situ data in a study dedicated to a better understanding of the basic structure and dynamics of the weakly defined Southern Hemisphere gyres and the Alaskan Gyre and their roles in oceanic heat and mass transport of the world ocean. Emphasis will be on description of the Alaskan Gyre.

Born, George H.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Buoy systems during the PGGE

The data quality, impact, and application of various buoy systems deployed during the FGGE are discussed. Three general categories of buoy systems provided critical coverage of environmental phenomena in the Arctic Ocean basin, the tropical oceans, and the Southern Hemisphere. Results of the added pressure information in the Arctic are presented. The impacts of the Southern Hemisphere buoy systems on pressure fields, SST fields, and ocean circulation are provided. Those findings from the tropical drifters, relevant to the FGGE time scales, are indicated. All three types of buoy systems, each uniquely engineered for application in different regions of our planet, contributed to the broad objective of advancing weather and climate predictions in several special ways. Comments are provided about the role of buoys in a future observing system, and a consortium of interested countries is strongly advocated in order to accelerate this role.

Fleming, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Geology and tectonics of the Themis Regio-Lavinia Planitia-Alpha Regio-Lada Terra area, Venus - Results from Arecibo image data

Results of new radar images obtained from the Arecibo Observatory for portions of the southern hemisphere of Venus are reported. The images show that the upland of Phoebe Region contains the southern extension of Devana Chasma, a rift zone extending 4200 km south from Theia Mons and interpreted as a zone of extension. Alpha Regio, the only large region of tesserae within the imaged area, is found to be similar to tesserae mapped elsewhere on the planet; it covers a smaller percentage of the surface than that observed in the northern high latitudes. Themis Region is mapped as an ovoid chain of radar-bright arcuate single- and double-ring structures, edifices, and bright lineaments. On the basis of the present analysis, the southern hemisphere of Venus is interpreted to be characterized by regions of mantle upwelling on a variety of scales, upwelling and extension, and localized compression.

Senske, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Tropospheric Ozone Over a Tropical Atlantic Station in the Northern Hemisphere: Paramaribo, Surinam (6 deg N, 55 deg W)

We present an analysis of 2.5 years of weekly ozone soundings conducted at a new monitoring station in Paramaribo, Surinam (6 deg N,55 deg W). This is currently one of only three ozone sounding stations in the northern hemisphere (NH) tropics, and the only one in the equatorial Atlantic region. Paramaribo is part of the Southern Hemisphere ADditional Ozone Sounding program (SHADOZ). Due to its position close to the equator, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) passes over Paramaribo twice per year, which results in a semi-annual seasonality of many parameters including relative humidity and ozone. The dataset from Paramaribo is used to: (1) evaluate ozone variability relative to precipitation, atmospheric circulation patterns and biomass burning; (2) contrast ozone at the NH equatorial Atlantic with that at nearby southern hemisphere (SH) stations Natal (6 deg S,35 deg W) and Ascension (8 deg S,14 deg W); (3) compare the seasonality of tropospheric ozone with a satellite-derived ozone product: Tropical Tropospheric Ozone Columns from the Modified Residual method (MR-TTOC). We find that Paramaribo is a distinctly Atlantic station. Despite its position north of the equator, it resembles nearby SH stations during most of the year. Transport patterns in the lower and middle troposphere during February and March differ from SH stations, which leads to a seasonality of ozone with two maxima. MR-TTOC over Paramaribo does not match the observed seasonality of ozone due to the use of a SH ozone sonde climatology in the MR method. The Paramaribo ozone record is used to suggest an improvement for northern hemisphere MR-TTOC retrievals. We conclude that station Paramaribo shows unique features in the region, and clearly adds new information to the existing SHADOZ record.

Peters, W.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The middle and high latitude winter ionosphere at the Ariel 4 satellite altitude

The electron (0+) density variations over the northern and southern winter high latitude ionosphere are comprehensively analyzed using the technique of Brinton et al. (1978). Two-hour Magnetic Local Time (MLT) arithmetic means of electron densities are studied in terms of invariant magnetic latitude and in terms of magnetic activity as classified by the three-hour planetary magnetic activity index. It is found that the southern hemisphere densities are significantly lower than those in the northern hemisphere. Further, the maximum electron densities observed in the northern hemisphere are located in a MLT range symmetrical about the 14-02 MLT meridian, whereas in the southern hemisphere the maxima are observed about the noon midnight magnetic meridian. A deep localized ionization hole on the nightside of the polar cap is not observed although the polar cavity is apparent.

Tulunay, Y. K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Late Frasnian mass extinction: Conodont event stratigraphy, global changes, and possible causes

Several abrupt changes in conodont biofacies are documented to occur synchronously at six primary control sections across the Frasnian-Famennian boundary in Euramerica. These changes occurred within a time-span of only about 100,000 years near the end of the latest Frasnian linguiformis Zone, which is formally named to replace the Uppermost gigas Zone. The conodont-biofacies changes are interpreted to reflect a eustatic rise followed by an abrupt eustatic fall immediately preceding the late Frasnian mass extinction. Two new conodont species are named and described. Ancyrognathus ubiquitus n.sp. is recorded only just below and above the level of late Frasnian extinction and hence is a global marker for that event. Palmatolepispraetriangularis n.sp. is the long-sought Frasnian ancestor of the formerly cryptogenic species, Pa. triangularis, indicator of the earliest Famennian Lower triangularis Zone. The actual extinction event occurred entirely within the Frasnian and is interpreted to have been of brief duration-from as long as 20,000 years to as short as several days. The eustatic rise-and-fall couplet associated with the late Frasnian mass extinction is similar to eustatic couplets associated with the demise of most Frasnian (F2h) reefs worldwide about 1 m.y. earlier and with a latest Famennian mass extinction about 9.5 m.y. later. All these events may be directly or indirectly attributable to extraterrestrial triggering mechanisms. An impact of a small bolide or a near miss of a larger bolide may have caused the earlier demise of Frasnian reefs. An impact of possibly the same larger bolide in the Southern Hemisphere would explain the late Frasnian mass extinction. Global regression during the Famennian probably resulted from Southern-Hemisphere glaciation triggered by the latest Frasnian impact. Glaciation probably was the indirect cause of the latest Famennian mass extinction.

Sandberg, Charles A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Meridional Martian water abundance profiles during the 1988-1989 season

The Martian southern hemisphere atmospheric water vapor column abundance measurements reported agree with Viking Orbiter atmospheric water detectors during early southern spring and southern autumnal equinox; profiles obtained in southern mid- and late summer, however, indicate the presence of twice as much water both in the southern hemisphere and planetwide. This discrepancy is accounted for by the high optical depths created by two global dust storms during the Viking year, while the present observations were obtained in the case of the relatively dust-free atmosphere of the 1988-1989 opposition.

Rizk, B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Influence of the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption on the Stratospheric Circulation

On June 15th, 1991 the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines injected about 20 Tg of sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere, which was transformed into sulfuric acid aerosol. Even though stratospheric winds climatologically tend to hinder the air mixing between the two hemispheres, observations have shown that a large part of the SO2 emitted by Mt. Pinatubo have been transported from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere. We show how the absorption of radiation by sulfate aerosol is responsible for the spreading to the southern hemisphere through a middle stratospheric channel. We simulate the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 general circulation model, coupled to the aerosol module GOCART and the stratospheric chemistry module StratChem. Our simulations are in good agreement with SAGE-II and AVHRR data. We perform two ensembles of simulations: the first ensemble consists of runs without coupling between aerosol and radiation. In these simulations the plume of aerosols is treated as a passive tracer and the atmosphere is unperturbed. In the second ensemble of simulations aerosols and radiation are coupled. We show that the set of runs with interactive aerosol produces a larger cross-equatorial transport of the Pinatubo cloud, in agreement with the observations. At first, the volcanic cloud is transported from the latitude of the eruption to both hemispheres through a lower stratospheric pathway. Additionally, in the interactive simulations the absorption of long wave radiation from the volcanic sulfate induces a lofting of the cloud to the middle atmosphere and, at the same time, a divergent motion from the center of the cloud. Such motion spreads the volcanic cloud across the equator and to the tropics, where the background circulation carry it to higher latitudes.

Aquila, V.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Wildfire Aerosols on Global Energy Budget and Climate: The Role of Climate Feedbacks

Aerosols emitted from wildfires could significantly affect global climate through perturbing global radiation balance. In this study, the Community Earth System Model with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate fire aerosols’ impacts on global climate with emphasis on the role of climate feedbacks. The total global fire aerosol radiative effect (RE) is estimated to be -0.78 ± 0.29 W m -2 , which is mostly from shortwave RE due to aerosol–cloud interactions (REaci; -0.70 ± 0.20 W m -2 ). The associated global annual-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change ΔT is -0.64 ± 0.16 K with the largest reduction in the Arctic regions where the shortwave REaci is strong. Associated with the cooling, the Arctic sea ice is increased, which acts to reamplify the Arctic cooling through a positive ice-albedo feedback. The fast response (irrelevant to ΔT) tends to decrease surface latent heat flux into atmosphere in the tropics to balance strong atmospheric fire black carbon absorption, which reduces the precipitation in the tropical land regions (southern Africa and South America). The climate feedback processes (associated with ΔT) lead to a significant surface latent heat flux reduction over global ocean areas, which could explain most (~80%) of the global precipitation reduction. The precipitation significantly decreases in deep tropical regions (5°N) but increases in the Southern Hemisphere tropical ocean, which is associated with the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the weakening of Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. Such changes could partly compensate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry induced by boreal forest fire aerosol indirect effects, through intensifying the cross-equator atmospheric heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Satellite Observations of Extremes in Precipitation

The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis and 3-hr semi-global analyses using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data are used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Satellite Observation of Extremes in Precipitation

The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis and 3-hr semi-global analyses using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data are used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The data sets are also explored to monitor extremes in precipitation related to localized and regional flooding and the occurrence of droughts.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Mars Gravity Field Model Development from Mars Global Surveyor Tracking Data

Since Feb. 99 the MGS spacecraft has been in a near circular orbit at about 400 km altitude. The MGS has been regularly tracked by the Deep Space Network (DSN) at X-band and for a 3 week period in February was tracked almost continuously for an intensive gravity modeling activity that would form the basis of the orbital computations for the rest of the mission. The data collected during this calibration period and the earlier SPO and Hiatus periods have now been used to develop a new gravity field model for Mars that is showing considerable new detail in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Until February no data at 400 km altitude or lower had been acquired on any previous mission south of about 35S and all the previous data were of significantly lower quality. Low altitude data (-170 km) were obtained over the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere during the SPO periods but because of the high eccentricity of the orbit nothing of similar quality was obtainable for the southern hemisphere. The new models are of spherical harmonic degree and order 70 or higher and are suggesting large anomalies are often associated with the large impact features. Gravity data have also been obtained over both the northern and southern polar ice caps. The MGS orbit quality resulting from the use of these newer models is better than any previous Mars missions and is approaching the ten's of meter level that had been hoped would be eventually realizable.

Lemoine, F. G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount

Owing to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid ice loss in the upcoming decades and centuries. Here this study examines the effectiveness of using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) that minimizes global mean temperature (GMT) change to slow projected 21st century Antarctic ice loss. We simulate 11 different SAI cases which vary by the latitudinal location(s) and the amount(s) of the injection(s) to examine the climatic response near Antarctica in each case as compared to the reference climate at the turn of the last century. We demonstrate that injecting at a single latitude in the northern hemisphere or at the Equator increases Antarctic shelf ocean temperatures pertinent to ice shelf basal melt, while injecting only in the southern hemisphere minimizes this temperature change. We use these results to analyze the results of more complex multi-latitude injection strategies that maintain GMT at or below 1.5°C above the pre-industrial. All these multi-latitude cases will slow Antarctic ice loss relative to the mid-to-late 21st century SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. Yet, to avoid a GMT threshold estimated by previous studies pertaining to rapid West Antarctic ice loss (1.5°C above the pre-industrial GMT, though large uncertainty), our study suggests SAI would need to cool about 1.0°C below this threshold and predominately inject at low southern hemisphere latitudes (~15°S - 30°S). These results highlight the complexity of factors impacting the Antarctic response to SAI and the critical role of the injection strategy in preventing future ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗