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DOE OSTI2026

Exploring sodium dynamics in the dilute oxygen regime of mixed oxy-sulfide NaPSiSO glasses

All-solid-state‑sodium batteries have great potential to lower the cost of grid-scale energy storage systems. However, they require a low cost, high conductivity solid electrolyte to become a reality. The electrochemical properties of mixed oxy-sulfide glasses NaPSiSO exceed those of either the pure sulfide or the pure oxide glass alone. In this work, we have tested models of sodium ion dynamics in the NaPSiSO series: zNa 2 S+(1-z)[(1-y)[(1-x)SiS 2 + xPS 5/2 ] + yNaPO 3 ] where 0.57 ≤ z ≤ 0.588, 0 ≤ x ≤ 0.35, and 0.15 ≤ y ≤ 0.35 using 23 Na nuclear magnetic resonance to directly probe the local fields and their fluctuations at the nuclear sites. We determined the distribution of activation energies in these materials arising from distributions of local environments and provided quantitative information about the connectivity of the ionic pathways through which the sodium ions move. We found that the sodium ion conduction dynamics were described as an ionic percolation through a Gaussian distribution of energy barriers and that the composition dependence of the ionic conductivity in the dilute oxygen regime is well-described by the Nernst-Einstein relation modified for percolation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interface-engineered (CrMnTiZnCo) 3 O 4 @polypyrrole nano-hybrids for superior lithium storage

High-entropy oxides (HEO) have emerged as promising anode materials for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) due to their high theoretical specific capacity. However, their practical application is hindered by several challenges, including significant volume expansion, electrode pulverization, and substantial irreversible capacity loss during initial cycles. To address these limitations, this study designed a novel core-shell composite material, denoted as HEO@PPy, which consists of a (CrMnTiZnCo) 3 O 4 -based HEO core and a polypyrrole (PPy) shell. This composite demonstrates remarkable electrochemical performance: it maintains a specific capacity of 1090.1 mAh/g after 100 cycles at 100 mA/g and retains 521.8 mAh/g after 1000 cycles at 1 A/g, highlighting its superior cycling stability. Furthermore, it exhibits excellent rate capability, delivering a capacity of 372.1 mAh/g even at a high current density of 5 A/g. These findings confirm that the strategic compositional and structural design of HEOs, combined with hybridization with conductive polymers like PPy, provides a viable pathway for developing advanced anode materials for next-generation, high-performance lithium-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preparation and electrochemical properties of high-entropy oxide Li x (CrMnCoNiZn) 3-x O 4

High-entropy oxides (HEOs) have gained significant attention as anode materials for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) due to their high theoretical specific capacity, synergistic effects of constituent elements, and enhanced structural stability induced by high entropy. Here, this study investigates the electrochemical properties of a novel series of HEOs, Li x (CrMnCoNiZn) 3-x O 4 , synthesized via the sol-gel method. As lithium content increases, the electrochemical lithium storage performance of the HEOs improves, attributed to the rise in high-valence states and oxygen vacancies. The high valence state of elements facilitates greater electron transfer, enhancing the specific capacity during lithium insertion. Additionally, a higher concentration of oxygen vacancies boosts ionic conductivity and lithium ion diffusion kinetics, leading to superior electrochemical performance. Among the synthesized materials, Li 0.11 (CrMnCoNiZn) 2.89 O 4 exhibited the best performance, delivering a discharge capacity of 365 mAh·g −1 after 100 cycles at 100 mA·g −1 , 257 mAh·g −1 after 1000 cycles at 1 A·g −1 , and a rate capacity of 196 mAh·g −1 at 2 A·g −1 . The Li + diffusion coefficient reached 2.78 × 10 −15 cm 2 ·s −1 . This work not only deepens the understanding of HEOs' electrochemical behavior in LIBs but also provides insights into the impact of lithium ion substitution on their performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the Nucleation and Growth of Lead Sulfate Particles on Lead Electrodes

Lead-acid batteries (LABs) play a pivotal role in the energy storage sector with applications spanning from starting-lighting-ignition batteries to grid energy storage. Passivation of lead negative electrodes by PbSO 4 particles is a fundamental mechanism limiting the performance of LAB. In this regard, an electrochemical model is developed that simulates the nucleation and growth (N&G) dynamics of PbSO 4 particles on a flat lead electrode, responsible for its passivation. The model considers the electrochemical reactions between lead electrode and sulfuric acid, N&G of PbSO 4 particles, passivation of the lead surface, and the ternary transport of PbSO 4 (aq), bisulfate, and protons in H 2 SO 4 electrolyte. The model is validated with a dataset of cyclic voltammetry (CV) responses collected at several scan rates and H 2 SO 4 concentrations. The model shows remarkable qualitative and quantitative agreement with the experimental data including CV peak features, discharge capacity, and particle size. The model was employed to explore key N&G quantities, such as supersaturation, nucleation rate, particle count, growth rate, particle size, and surface coverage, and to examine how their interactions influence electrode utilization. Parametric studies were also conducted to evaluate how scan rates and acid concentrations influence the previously mentioned N&G quantities and, subsequently, the utilization of the electrode.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermal cycling-driven microstructural changes of eutectic Al–Si phase change materials in SS304 containers revealed by multi-modal imaging

Aluminum-based Al–Si alloys are widely used as phase change materials (PCMs) in thermal energy storage (TES) systems owing to their high volumetric latent heat and superior thermal conductivity. However, their long-term reliability is limited by degradation processes that remain insufficiently understood. In this work, we employ a multimodal, correlative characterization framework to systematically resolve the degradation behavior of eutectic Al–Si PCMs in contact with SS304 containers under repeated thermal cycling. By integrating high-resolution electron microscopy, three-dimensional X-ray fluorescence (3D XRF) imaging, and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), we directly link spatially resolved compositional and microstructural evolution to changes in thermophysical properties. The correlative analysis reveals that elemental leaching of Fe, Cr, and Ni from the stainless-steel container into the PCM drives the formation of intermetallic compounds (IMCs) both at the interface and within the bulk PCM, leading to pronounced compositional heterogeneity. These interfacial reactions and diffusion-induced transformations progressively destabilize the Al–Si eutectic, reducing the effective phase-transforming fraction. Consistent with these observations, DSC measurements show a decrease in melting temperature and latent heat of fusion with thermal cycling. These results underscore the critical influence of interfacial reactions and material compatibility on the stability, durability, and overall performance of Al–Si-based TES systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Simulation and Experimental Validation of an Integrated Heat Pump – Thermal Energy Storage Using a Room-Temperature Phase Change Material

As the dependence on electrical heat pumps (HPs) and intermittent renewables increases, grid strains are expected to grow. This necessitates an energy storage system to reduce the mismatch between energy supply and demand. Thus, a proposed dual-mode commercially available 14.1 kW HP was integrated with a single 22°C phase change material (PCM) thermal storage system (TES) to load-shift both cooling and heating loads. The HP-TES system was manufactured and experimentally tested using a novel test matrix based on AHRI 210/240 psychrometric conditions. Furthermore, transient dual-mode system-level HP-TES models were developed in Modelica and validated using the experimental test conditions. Base HP cooling and heating experimental tests at ambient temperatures of 35°C and −8.3°C show that the modified HP-TES maintained the rated system capacity and performance. The HP-TES discharge provided approximately 30% and 50% reductions in cooling and heating demand, respectively. The transient HP-TES models predicted system capacity and total power input for discharge and recharge operating modes within ±4% mean percentage error, and recharge power input within ±2%, with maximum errors occurring at the equipment startup. During system operation, the sources of model deviations are first-order polynomial fits of the PCM digital scanning calorimetry (DSC) data and unaccounted supercooling in the PCM during solidification. Nonetheless, the model predictions agree with the experimental tests, demonstrating the availability of robust, accurate, and validated transient models that can be used for further validation and the development of system controls.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Experimental Investigation of Vapor Formation in Liquid CO2 Flow Through a Converging-Diverging Nozzle

Carbon dioxide is an attractive working fluid for many cycles, including for pumped thermal energy storage (PTES). A challenge with some proposed sCO2 PTES cycles is the operation of sCO2 machinery outside the typical bounds of experience, with local phase change from the liquid state being particularly unknown. Presently, there is insufficient data in the literature regarding multiphase CO2 to adequately design a multiphase-tolerant turbine, so generation of foundational data is required. This experimental study investigates the flow characteristics of sub-sonic liquid CO2 undergoing expansion and phase change in a converging-diverging nozzle. The nozzle is instrumented to measure static pressure, unsteady pressure, temperature, and density. The static pressure transducers are located at 27 axial locations to accurately characterize the pressure profile in the nozzle. High-accuracy RTDs are located at the entrance and exit of the nozzle, and three dynamic pressure transducers are strategically located to capture any unsteady phenomena. During testing, values of mass flow and nozzle inlet pressure are swept to vary the pressure drop and fluid properties. The measured total pressure drop in the nozzle is compared to a homogenous model and the Lockhart-Martinelli correlation method, with the latter predicting loss quite closely. The resulting data set is valuable for validating multiphase numerical models in a simple geometry before implementation of these models in turbomachinery design.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Additive Manufactured Composite Phase-Change Material for Thermal Energy Storage Applications

Phase-change materials play a critical role in industrial energy storage applications to drive efficiency improvements, thermal energy management, and carbon emissions reductions. Recently, it has been shown that rapid solidification of alloys with metastable immiscibility in the liquid phase has the potential to form unique microstructures in which a low-melting phase is uniformly distributed in a high-melting matrix. This feature can be exploited using additive manufacturing to produce components with complex geometries containing such unique phase-change microstructures. Phase-field simulations utilizing high-performance computing were used to provide a detailed description of the evolution of the active phase during service in terms of their morphology and composition in different polycrystalline matrix grain morphologies that are typically produced during additive manufacturing. Phase field simulations were performed using, MEUMAPPS-SL (Microstructure Evolution Using Massively Parallel Phase-field Simulations – Solid Liquid) code that was developed in-house by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The simulations utilized the capabilities of the Kestrel supercomputer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The simulation results were compared with experimental results generated at Siemens Energy, Inc. The results indicate that the kinetics of liquid spreading along grain boundaries is largely determined by the mobility of the triple line along the intersection of the grain boundary liquid and the grain boundary plane.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance Assessment of a Heat Pump Integrated with Thermal Energy Storage in Cooling & Heating Modes

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) systems have demonstrated significant potential to manage the fluctuating nature of energy demand and shifting peak loads. This technology has made significant recent advances, including new research on the integration of TES with residential and commercial Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) systems. In this paper, we present the use of a novel laboratory assessment framework for a prototype heat pump system integrated with latent heat phase change material-based TES. The assessment framework consists of 22 total test points (11 heating, 11 cooling) using psychrometric conditions from AHRI Standard 210/240 and includes transient conditions to evaluate TES charging and discharging modes. In addition, both continuous mode and cyclic mode were evaluated for charging and discharging to explore the benefits to TES heat transfer from repeated transient operation. The ambient conditions evaluated include heating mode charging at cold-climate heat pump conditions when winter-peaking utilities may most require demand reduction (H4Full conditions, 5°F/-15°C) and cooling mode charging at high ambient temperature that may occur during times of day when excess solar power generation results in low-cost electricity (105°F/40.6°C). The work demonstrates the demand reduction capabilities of integrating TES with HVAC, including up to 44% in cooling mode and 60% in heating mode compared to conventional HVAC equipment without TES.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Porous carbon from lignocellulosic biomass with emphasis on corn plant waste residue for energy storage

The rising global demand for sustainable energy storage materials has driven the search for environmentally friendly and cost-effective electrode options. Hydrothermal conversion of lignocellulosic biomass has gained attention due to its low energy requirements and operation at relatively low temperatures, presenting a green alternative to traditional thermochemical methods. The resulting solid product, hydrochar, has been used as an adsorbent and soil amendment; however, chemical/thermal treatment significantly enhances its physical properties. These structural modifications transform hydrochar into an effective porous carbon electrode, offering abundant sites for electrolyte ion transport, critical for high-performance devices like supercapacitors and batteries. This review first discusses various waste biomass and sustainable feedstocks available globally. It compares two primary thermochemical conversion techniques, pyrolysis and hydrothermal carbonization/liquefaction, and examines their respective solid products, biochar and hydrochar, analyzing differences in their physical and chemical characteristics. The focus is placed on hydrochar, summarizing activation methods to produce porous carbon suitable for energy storage applications. Additionally, this review will include a dedicated section on the application of porous carbon derived from corn plant waste residue, considering that corn is one of the most abundant crops grown worldwide, which makes it an important and promising source for sustainable porous carbon production. The role of machine learning models in optimizing hydrothermal processes to produce high-quality hydrochar is also discussed, emphasizing how data-driven approaches can streamline process development. Finally, the review identifies the current challenges and prospects for lignocellulosic biomass-derived porous carbon as a sustainable electrode material in next-generation energy storage technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

High Efficiency Reversible Solid Oxide System (Final Technical Report)

This report was generated based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) under the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office, H2@Scale Initiative, Award Number DE-EE0008847. In this project, FuelCell Energy studied the design and performance of a system rated for 15kWe Charge/3 kWe Discharge energy storage system based on reversible solid-oxide technology.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Phase-Change Materials and Operating Periods on Load Shifting for Thermal Storage Heat Pumps in European Climate Zones

As the reliance on heat pumps (HPs) for space conditioning increases worldwide, ex-tensive grid strains during utility peak hours are expected. Significant research efforts focus on investigating the use of integrated thermal energy storage (TES) systems to reduce peak energy demands. Conventionally, TES systems are often integrated to store and provide either cooling or heating, but not both. In this work, a single room-temperature phase-change material (PCM)-TES was integrated for dual-mode opera-tion with an R290 air-to-water 10.5 kW (3-Ton) HP. Two PCM melting temperatures (17°C, 22°C) were assessed to investigate their impact on system performance and cost reductions for Milan, Italy (4A); Barcelona, Spain (3A); and Oslo, Norway (6A). HP and HP-TES performance maps were generated using Modelica-based transient models and co-simulated with a prototype residential building using the Spawn of En-ergyPlusTM with simple rule-based controls. Our simulations indicate that PCM-17°C provided annual cost savings at higher peak-to-off-peak cost ratios, as the demand re-duction dominated the savings potential. The recharge energy costs and requirements became more dominant at lower cost ratios, making PCM-22°C more beneficial at lower cost ratios. Finally, despite Oslo's heating-dominated climate, the utility peak hours favor cooling demand reductions, making PCM-17°C more appealing. In all cases, the cost savings potential stabilized between 4 – 10% regardless of cost ratio, suggesting that system-level component and operation control optimization is required to maximize cost savings further.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rheo–Electric Foundations and Engineering of Carbon Slurry Flow Electrodes

Flowable carbon slurry electrodes promise continuous, scalable electrochemical desalination and energy storage when their rheology (flow and stability) and electronic connectivity are jointly optimized. This report integrates six complementary thrusts that we executed under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project: (i) a fast, ex situ, centrifuge-compatible method to quantify pellet (packed slurry) electronic conductivity, with a validated cell constant (“shape factor”) and quantitative structure–property insights for carbon mixtures; (ii) a controlled circulation study showing that peristaltic pumping can irreversibly alter particle size and morphology over laboratory-relevant durations; (iii) development of a miniature jet pump that preserves particle integrity while achieving entrainment ratios of 2–4 at practical flow rates; (iv) a comprehensive mapping of how a representative non-ionic surfactant (Tween 20) collapses the carbon gel network, separating network-percolation losses from intrinsic particle contact resistance; (v) in-situ visualization revealing how gravitational settling and flow-driven mixing compete to control charge transport, with dynamic bed layers preventing saturation while achieving 30-fold local concentration enhancement; and (vi) a simple, widely adoptable fabrication route to structured, gas-nitrided titanium nitride (TiN) titanium current collectors that dramatically lower interfacial losses and enable geometry-driven performance gains. Together, these results provide a coherent toolchain and design rules to accelerate formulation screening, de-risk device prototyping, and standardize characterization for carbon slurry electrodes in flow-electrode capacitive deionization (FCDI), electrochemical flow capacitor (EFC), and related systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Jumpstart Opportunities to Unleash Leadership in Energy Storage (JOULES)

Current-generation Li-ion batteries with cobalt- and nickel-containing cathodes and graphite anodes are approaching performance and cost limits. In this program, 24M Technologies, Inc. (24M) is teaming with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and University of Michigan (UM) to develop low cost and fast charging sodium metal batteries with good low-temperature performance and high energy density, building upon previous work performed under ARPA-E programs. Key achievements include optimization of solid electrolyte and anode current collector, optimized cathode active materials, development of high-performance electrolyte formulations, and integration of these components into full cells. The cell design incorporates (1) an ultra-thick cathode (>9 mAh/cm 2 ) comprising advanced cobalt-free, sodium cathode active material, (2) advanced fast-charging electrolyte (up to 12 mS/cm) developed using machine learning and automated high-throughput screening technology by UM, and (3) ceramic modified separator that enable smooth Na transport and deposition, developed at MIT, enabling a high-energy density anode-free configuration and maximizing the energy density of sodium batteries. The team has successfully combined these approaches to sodium chemistry and paved the way to meeting the fast-charging, high-energy density, and low-cost requirements of next-generation drone, electric vertical take-off and -landing, and electric vehicle batteries. Performance for anode-free sodium cells developed under this program is more powerful than the commercial Li-ion batteries. The final deliverable cell design has achieved over 300 Wh/kg and volumetric energy density above 800 Wh/L (Table 1). Additionally, the team has achieved over (1) a lifetime of 340 cycles, (2) 80% capacity retention at -20 °C (compared 25 °C), and (3) the ability to fast charge to 80% SOC in 20 minutes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fused filament fabrication of thermoplastic polyurethane composites with microencapsulated phase-change material

Here, the present study examines the thermal energy storage (TES) effectiveness and printability of microencapsulated phase-change material (MEPCM) combined with thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) for fused filament fabrication (FFF). Two formulations were assessed: 24D MEPCM, which changes phase at 24 ° C, compounded with TPU pellets and 43D MEPCM, which changes phase at 43 ° C, integrated with TPU powder. These combinations are designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the form of the TPU (pellets versus powder) in the FFF process. The investigation includes a comprehensive analysis of thermal characteristics, encompassing phase-change temperature, latent heat of fusion, thermal conductivity, and thermal decomposition, which are assessed through differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). Additionally, mechanical properties, including stress-strain behavior, are examined to evaluate material suitability for TES applications, while microstructural visualization is used to provide deeper insights into material performance, structural integrity, and the quality of printed components. The 24D MEPCM and TPU pellets formulation experienced a significant loss of approximately 39.6% of PCM during filament extrusion and printing, resulting in a reduced effective latent heat. Therefore, further characterization of the pellet formulation was discontinued due to excessive leakage. In contrast, the 43D MEPCM and TPU powder formulation demonstrated minimal PCM loss, with the 60 wt.% composition achieving an effective latent heat of 132 J/g. This value represents the highest effective latent heat currently documented in the literature for PCM-polymer-composite materials produced using an FFF-based additive manufacturing process.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Design and performance assessment of a dual-mode latent thermal storage integrated heat pump across multiple climate zones

The electrification of space cooling and heating systems risks overloading the existing electrical grid during peak hours. Heat pumps integrated with thermal energy storage (HP-TES) offer a promising solution by shifting peak loads to off-peak hours, reducing grid strains. This work presents the design and assessment of a dual-mode HP-TES that uses a single 22°C phase-change material (PCM) as a heat source or sink in heating and cooling modes, respectively. Performance assessment was conducted using Modelica-based transient models, and full-year simulations were conducted across eight US climate zones using typical weather data. Two HP-TES performance metrics: peak energy reduction and recharge energy increases, were defined by comparing HP-TES energy consumption with base HP peak consumptions. Annual heating demand reductions (40–65%) exceeded cooling demand reductions (15–20%) due to the elimination of peak-hour backup heating. Cooling mode recharge energy requirements (0–10%) were reduced in locations with lower summer nighttime temperatures, while heating recharge requirements were lower than the high base-peak energy demand from backup heating. Simplified rapid methods that were 10 7 times faster than annual simulations were developed to predict seasonal cooling and heating energy reductions, and recharge energy requirements, with maximum deviations of ±2.5% and ±3.5% points. These methods enabled rapid parametric studies that identified optimal location-specific PCM temperatures between 22°C and 27°C, highlighting the need to consider both discharge and recharge energy requirements to achieve sustainable, energy-efficient peak load shifting across various climate zones.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ultrasonic Characterization of Lithium Ion Thermal Runaway Conditions for Real-time Ultrasonic Enabled BMS Integration

The demand for energy storage is growing, and lithium-ion batteries are a promising technology to meet this need due to their high power/energy density, high round-trip efficiency, rapid response time, and portability. However, recent catastrophic events caused by thermal runaway have slowed their adoption, highlighting the need for an early warning system for battery failure. In this work, ultrasound is used to detect physical changes in 950 mAh batteries by identifying material property changes independent of voltage and current. [Ultrasound signal features (e.g., time of flight, maximum frequency component) were extracted as the batteries were cycled and subjected to both constant current and constant voltage overcharge and were used to develop two metrics identifying failure: a warning to detect the start of overcharge and an emergency stop (E-stop) to immediately take the battery out of service. The identification method involved locating magnitude differences of several ultrasound features compared to baseline operation considering different currents and temperatures, and the warning/stopping metrics were consistent across all experiments. For an average overcharge time of 140 minutes, the average warning was issued 124 minutes before the failure and the average E-stop was triggered 94 minutes before failure. As a test of using ultrasound for early warning detection, a battery was forced into overcharge and returned to normal cycling conditions based on the previously determined warning metric. Both the voltage profile and the ultrasound measurements returned to their baseline behavior, indicating that ultrasonic detection can not only identify battery failure before a catastrophic event, but can also provide early enough warnings such that overcharges can be detected and corrected quickly enough so the battery does not need to be decommissioned.]

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗