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At least 415 records · Page 23

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

bayesian structural time series↗

Development of Analysis Methods that Integrate Numeric and Textual Equipment Reliability Data

Within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway is performing collaborative research on the development and deployment of technologies designed to assist operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce operating costs improve plant reliability and availability. One of the RISA research areas is focusing on the development of methods and tools designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules, optimal maintenance postures for plant structures, systems, and components [SSCs]) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available SSC health data. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project targets this research area by creating a direct bridge between component equipment reliability (ER) data and system engineer decision making regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. In this respect, one challenge that NPP system engineers are facing is that the amount of ER data being continuously generated is not only extremely large in size, but it comes in different forms: textual (e.g., condition or maintenance reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems). All these data elements provide them with valuable insights and information regarding: 1) the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, 2) the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors/trends, and 3) the prediction of their direct consequences. However, several challenges have proved to be roadblocks to this process. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers/databases), others are conceptual in nature: data elements come in different formats (e.g., numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). The activities performed by the RIAM project during FY23 directly tackles the need to simultaneously integrate the analysis of ER data in all its forms, numeric and textual. Note that such task has never been performed before due to the complexity of the systems under consideration but, most importantly, because of the technical challenges behind the harmonization of ER data formats and the lack of adequate computational methods to analyze them. Our approach borrows ideas and concepts from the medical field where integration of several data sources is vital to assist medical practitioners to perform correct diagnosis and indicate optimal treatments. In our view a NPP asset is equivalent to a patient in a medical context. The main difference is the complexity of a human body is a magnitude more complex when compared to typical assets commonly present in NPPs (e.g., centrifugal pumps, or motor operated valves). This simplifies our first requirement when analyzing heterogenous ER data formats: to put data into “context”. Context is here intended as the additional piece of information that is needed by ER data analysis tools to understand what these data elements are referring to, i.e., which king of knowledge they are generating. In our context, this knowledge can be translated into models that capture the form and functional architecture of assets/systems, their dependencies, and how they interact. These models actually emulate the knowledge that that NPP system engineers possess about assets and systems; this is their key of success when analyzing ER data, their challenge is ability to handle large amount of data. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional, i.e. cause-effect, relations. Then, ER data elements are processed by identifying first of all which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. For numeric ER data this task is fairly easy since it is possible to precisely pinpoint what MBSE elements the corresponding sensor are observing (e.g., bearing temperature of a centrifugal pump). Task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process as “knowledge extraction”. Once again, we borrow the experience in the medical field where methods to extract knowledge from textual data have been developed in the past decade. The missing element for us is the availability of a complete dictionary of NPP related concepts (in addition to the MBSE models presented earlier) that can put “text into context”. In FY23, such dictionary has been developed along with all the computational elements required for knowledge extraction. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, then the last step is the discovery of possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if the

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Geometric Optimization of an Electrochemical Purification Cell to Prevent Corrosion in CSP Plants During Operation

When exposed to moisture or oxygen, molten chloride salts produce corrosive impurities which degrade containment alloys. This can significantly decrease the lifetime and increase costs of molten-salt-based systems. To overcome this barrier, we designed and modeled an electrochemical purification cell to remove the corrosive impurity MgOH+. Various reactor architectures, including continuous stirred tank reactors (CSTRs) and plug flow reactors (PFRs) were investigated. Steady-state thermoelectric properties were evaluated using analytical methods, allowing assessment of the effects of structure and design parameters such as flow rate, cell length, and cross-sectional area of molten salt. The results suggest that our design could most effectively increase reliability and decrease costs of molten-chloride-salt-based systems by protecting them during continuous operation using an annular plug flow reactor.

analytical modeling↗

Structural Health Monitoring of Microreactor Safety Systems Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Microreactors, a class of modular reactors with net power output of less than 20 MWth, have innovative applications in nuclear and nonnuclear industries due to their portability, reliability, resilience, and high capacity factors. In order to operate microreactors on a wider scale, it is essential to bring down maintenance life-cycle costs while ensuring the integrity of operating such systems. Autonomous operations in microreactors using augmented digital-twin (DT) technology can serve as a cost-effective solution by increasing awareness about the system’s health. Structural health monitoring (SHM) is a key component of nuclear DT frameworks. Artificial neural networks can be beneficial to detect degradation in the nuclear safety systems, such as piping equipment systems, by monitoring the sensor data obtained from the plant and its corresponding structures, systems and components. In this report, an SHM methodology is presented which uses convolutional neural networks to determine degraded locations and their corresponding degradation-severity levels at various locations of nuclear piping equipment systems. A simple pipe system, subjected to seismic loads, is selected to design the post-hazard SHM framework. The effectiveness of the proposed SHM methodology is demonstrated by obtaining high accuracy in detecting degraded locations as well as the severity levels.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Chapter 32 - Power Grid Resilience

The new energy paradigm is altering the current power grid trend from synchronous generator reliant system toward power-electronics-based distributed energy resources (DERs). The resilient operation of modern power grid is highly dependent upon cyber and physical reliable operation of DERs. Power grid resilience broadly refers to the ability of the grid to be robust to eventualities and singularities that may disrupt the continuity of reliable power flow. This could involve resilience related to the physical system but more recently, the focus on cyber resilience has been evolving rapidly especially given the burgeoning growth of distributed generation and power-electronics-based DERs under smart grid and given that such threats to reliable operation do not have to evolve localized to where the physical asset is. Commonly, in power grids dominated by DERS, control and energy management are structured at a multitime scale multilayer fashion: (i) primary control layer at microseconds time scale, (ii) secondary control layer at millisecond time scale, and (iii) tertiary control layer at seconds to minutes time scale. The cyber-related issues that may affect the power grid resilience can be introduced in through primary, secondary, and tertiary control layers. The failure of each of these control layers may impact the reliable and resilient operation of the overall network and cause widespread failures which leads to unintended blackouts. As such, this chapter focuses on cyber-related resilience issues in primary control layer, secondary control layer, tertiary control layer, wide area/utility control, and anomaly detection and resilient communication.

anomaly detection↗

Atypical phase-change alloy Ga 2 Te 3 : atomic structure, incipient nanotectonic nuclei, and multilevel writing

Emerging brain-inspired computing, including artificial optical synapses, photonic tensor cores, neuromorphic networks, etc., needs phase-change materials (PCMs) of the next generation with lower energy consumption and a wider temperature range for reliable long-term operation. Gallium tellurides with higher melting and crystallization temperatures appear to be promising candidates and enable achieving the necessary requirements. Here, using high energy X-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy supported by first-principles simulations, we show that vitreous g-Ga 2 Te 3 films essentially have a tetrahedral local structure and sp 3 hybridization, similar to those in the stable fcc Ga 2 Te 3 polymorph and in contrast to a vast majority of typical PCMs. Nevertheless, optical pump–probe laser experiments revealed high-contrast, fast and reversible multilevel SET-RESET transitions raising a question related to the phase change mechanism. A recently observed nanotectonic compression in bulk glassy Ga–Te alloys seems to be responsible for the PCM performance. Incipient nanotectonic nuclei, reminiscent of monoclinic high-pressure HP-Te II and rhombohedral HP-Ga 2 Te 3 , are present as minorities (2–4%) in g-Ga 2 Te 3 but are suggested to grow dramatically with increasing temperature while interacting with appropriate laser pulses. This leads to co-crystallization of HP-polymorphs amplified by a high internal local pressure reaching 4–8 GPa. The metallic HP-forms provide an increasing optical and electrical contrast, favorable for reliable PCM operations, and higher energy efficiency.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multinuclear Solid-State NMR and NMR Crystallography of Solid Forms of Creatine and Creatinine

Creatine is a performance-enhancing supplement with two widely available commercial solid forms, namely, creatine monohydrate (creatine·H 2 O) and creatine HCl, the latter of which does not have a reported crystal structure. Moreover, commercial formulations of creatine may contain creatinine, an undesired impurity phase resulting from the self-cyclization of creatine during manufacturing. Therefore, reliable methods for characterizing the different solid forms of creatine and detecting the presence of creatinine are essential. Herein, we address these challenges using 13 C, 15 N, and 35 Cl solid-state NMR (SSNMR) spectroscopy to obtain distinct spectral fingerprints for creatine·H 2 O and creatine HCl, along with creatinine and creatinine HCl. The acquisition of these SSNMR spectra offers a robust approach for both the rapid characterization of each solid form and the detection of the impurity phases. Additionally, quadrupolar NMR crystallography-guided crystal structure prediction (QNMRX-CSP) was applied for the de novo crystal structure determination of creatine HCl, which was validated by the subsequently determined single-crystal X-ray diffraction (SCXRD) structure. Finally, to investigate the relationship between NMR parameters and structural features, 13 C and 15 N chemical shifts and 35 Cl electric field gradient (EFG) tensors were computed from geometry-optimized structures of the four solid forms by using dispersion-corrected DFT-D2* methods. Finally, this integrative approach offers a powerful framework for advancing the structural understanding and quality control of creatine-based supplements and next-generation formulations, as well as a wide range of other solid pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals.

NMR↗

Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this paper offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The approach proposed in this paper is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Absolute photoionization cross sections of brominated organics and determination of an effective C—Br bond cross section

For this work, absolute photoionization cross sections for five brominated species were measured using multiplexed synchrotron photoionization mass spectrometry at the Advanced Light Source (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory). These data enable reliable detection of bromine-containing compounds and estimation of C—Br bond photoionization cross sections. Complementary electronic-structure calculations provided adiabatic ionization energies in good agreement with experiment, while thermochemical appearance energies were measured directly. Bond dissociation energies for key fragmentation pathways of the neutral parent molecules were also analyzed. At 11 eV, cross sections were 53.8 ± 7.50 Mb (sp 2 C—Br) and 48.8 ± 7.70 Mb (sp 3 C—Br).

Brominated compounds↗

Speckle correlation as a monitor of X-ray free-electron laser induced crystal lattice deformation

X-ray free-electron lasers (X-FELs) present new opportunities to study ultrafast lattice dynamics in complex materials. While the unprecedented source brilliance enables high fidelity measurement of structural dynamics, it also raises experimental challenges related to the understanding and control of beam-induced irreversible structural changes in samples that can ultimately impact the interpretation of experimental results. This is also important for designing reliable high performance X-ray optical components. In this work, X-FEL beam-induced lattice alterations are investigated by measuring the shot-to-shot evolution of near-Bragg coherent scattering from a single crystalline germanium sample. It is shown that X-ray photon correlation analysis of sequential speckle patterns measurements can be used to monitor the nature and extent of lattice rearrangements. Additionally, abrupt, irreversible changes are observed following intermittent high-fluence monochromatic X-ray pulses, thus revealing the existence of a threshold response to X-FEL pulse intensity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Pulse Strengthened and Laser Edge Sealed Vacuum Insulation Glazing

A scalable, low-cost processing strategy for glass strengthening and sealing is proposed to improve the thermal performance of insulating glass units and develop innovative window technologies. In this project, a combination of large area photonic processing, additive manufacturing, and laser encapsulation techniques is reported to realize a vacuum glazing technology to meet the cost, performance, reliability, and throughput demands. A modeling framework for evaluating the mechanical and thermal response was established to verify the structural deformation and thermal conductance. Micro-size glass frits in printing ink and a continuous-wave laser curing were employed to allow the formation of a hermetic bonding layer and led to improvement of glass edge sealing. Various sealing parameters, including laser traveling speed, spot diameter, and laser power were optimized. The water seepage and mechanical strength of the resulting glass-to-glass bonding were examined as well. These results showcase the development of a practical vacuum insulating glazing with several unique features through a combination of photonic processing, laser encapsulation, and additive manufacturing.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Aspects of Spodumene Lithium Extraction Techniques

Lithium (Li), a leading cathode material in rechargeable Li-ion batteries, is vital to modern energy storage technology, establishing it as one of the most impactful and strategical elements. Given the surge in the electric car market, it is crucial to improve lithium recovery from its rich mineral deposits using the most effective extraction technique. In recent years, both industry and academia have shown significant interest in Li recovery from various Li-bearing minerals. Of these, only extraction from spodumene has established a reliable industrial production of Li salts. The current approaches for cracking of the naturally occurring, stable α-spodumene structure into a more open structure—β-spodumene—involve the so-called decrepitation process that takes place at extreme temperatures of ~1100 °C. This conversion is necessary, as β-spodumene is more susceptible to chemical attacks facilitating Li extraction. In the last several decades, many techniques have been demonstrated and patented to process hard-rock mineral spodumene. The objective of this review is to present a thorough analysis of significant findings and the enhancement of process flowsheets over time that can be useful for both research endeavors and industrial process improvements. The review focuses on the following techniques: acid methods, alkali methods, carbonate roasting/autoclaving methods, sulfuric acid roasting/autoclaving methods, chlorinating methods, and mechanochemical activation. Recently, microwaves (MWs), as an energy source, have been employed to transform α-spodumene into β-spodumene. Considering its energy-efficient and short-duration aspects, the review discusses the interaction mechanism of MWs with solids, MW-assisted decrepitation, and Li extraction efficiencies. Finally, the merits and/or disadvantages, challenges, and prospects of the processes are summarized.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

How to Obtain the Redshift Distribution from Probabilistic Redshift Estimates

Abstract A reliable estimate of the redshift distribution n ( z ) is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structures of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo- z ) probability density functions (PDFs) the next best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo- z point estimation. The established stacked estimator of n ( z ) avoids reducing photo- z PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of n ( z ) that worsens with a decreasing signal-to-noise ratio, the very regime where photo- z PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts ( CHIPPR ), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry that correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of n ( z ) produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover n ( z ) from photo- z PDFs. We present the chippr prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational cost. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo- z techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo- z community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo- z likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Improving the Precision of First-Principles Calculation of Parton Physics from Lattice Quantum Chromodynamics

Large momentum effective theory (LaMET) provides a general framework for computing the multi-dimensional partonic structure of the proton from first principles using lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD). In this effective field theory approach, LaMET predicts parton distributions through a power expansion and perturbative matching of a class of Euclidean observables—quasi-distributions—evaluated at large proton momenta. Recent advances in lattice renormalization, such as the hybrid scheme with leading renormalon resummation, together with improved matching kernel that incorporates higher-loop corrections and resummations, have enhanced both the perturbative and power accuracy of LaMET, enabling a reliable quantification of theoretical uncertainties. Moreover, the Coulomb-gauge correlator approach further simplifies lattice analyses and improves the precision of transverse-momentum-dependent structures, particularly in the non-perturbative region. State-of-the-art LaMET calculations have already yielded certain parton observables with important phenomenological impact. In addition, the recently proposed kinematically enhanced lattice interpolation operators promise access to unprecedented proton momenta with greatly improved signal-to-noise ratios, which will extend the range of LaMET prediction and further suppress the power corrections. The remaining challenges, such as controlling excited-state contamination in lattice matrix elements and extracting gluonic distributions, are expected to benefit from emerging lattice techniques for ground-state isolation and noise reduction. Thus, lattice QCD studies of parton physics have entered an exciting stage of precision control and systematic improvement, which will have a broader impact for nuclear and particle experiments.

Zhao, Yong [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Arg↗

Quantification of Native Lignin Structural Features with Gel–Phase 2D–HSQC 0 Reveals Lignin Structural Changes During Extraction

Our ability to study and valorize the lignin fraction of biomass is hampered by the fundamental and still unmet challenge of precisely quantifying native lignin's structural features. Here, we developed a rapid elevated-temperature 1 H– 13 C Heteronuclear Single-Quantum Coherence Zero (HSQC 0 ) NMR method that enables this precise quantification of native lignin structural characteristics even with whole plant cell wall (WPCW) NMR spectroscopy, overcoming fast spin relaxation in the gel phase. We also formulated a Gaussian fitting algorithm to perform automatic and reliable spectral integration. By combining HSQC 0 measurements with yield measurements following depolymerisation, we can confirm the combinatorial nature of radical coupling reactions during biosynthesis leading to a random sequential organization of linkages within a largely linear lignin chain. Such analyses illustrate how this analytical method can greatly facilitate the study of native lignin structure, which can then be used for fundamental studies or to understand lignin depolymerization methods like reductive catalytic fractionation or aldehyde-assisted fractionation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantification of Native Lignin Structural Features with Gel–Phase 2D–HSQC 0 Reveals Lignin Structural Changes During Extraction

Our ability to study and valorize the lignin fraction of biomass is hampered by the fundamental and still unmet challenge of precisely quantifying native lignin's structural features. Here, we developed a rapid elevated-temperature 1 H– 13 C Heteronuclear Single-Quantum Coherence Zero (HSQC 0 ) NMR method that enables this precise quantification of native lignin structural characteristics even with whole plant cell wall (WPCW) NMR spectroscopy, overcoming fast spin relaxation in the gel phase. We also formulated a Gaussian fitting algorithm to perform automatic and reliable spectral integration. By combining HSQC 0 measurements with yield measurements following depolymerisation, we can confirm the combinatorial nature of radical coupling reactions during biosynthesis leading to a random sequential organization of linkages within a largely linear lignin chain. Such analyses illustrate how this analytical method can greatly facilitate the study of native lignin structure, which can then be used for fundamental studies or to understand lignin depolymerization methods like reductive catalytic fractionation or aldehyde-assisted fractionation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Local position-space two-nucleon potentials from leading to fourth order of chiral effective field theory

We present local, position-space chiral NN potentials through four orders of chiral effective field theory ranging from leading order (LO) to next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order (N 3 LO, fourth order) of the Δ-less version of the theory. The long-range parts of these potentials are fixed by the very accurate πN LECs as determined in the Roy-Steiner equations analysis. At the highest order (N 3 LO), the NN data below 190 MeV laboratory energy are reproduced with the respectable χ 2 /datum of 1.45. A comparison of the N 3 LO potential with the phenomenological Argonne v 18 (AV18) potential reveals substantial agreement between the two potentials in the intermediate range ruled by chiral symmetry, thus, providing a chiral underpinning for the phenomenological AV18 potential. Our chiral NN potentials may serve as a solid basis for systematic ab initio calculations of nuclear structure and reactions that allow for a comprehensive error analysis. In particular, the order by order development of the potentials will make possible a reliable determination of the truncation error at each order. Our new family of local position-space potentials differs from existing potentials of this kind by a weaker tensor force as reflected in relatively low D-state probabilities of the deuteron (P D ≲ 4.0 % for our N 3 LO potentials) and predictions for the triton binding energy above 8.00 MeV (from two-body forces alone). As a consequence, our potentials may lead to different predictions when applied to light and intermediate-mass nuclei in ab initio calculations and, potentially, help solve some of the outstanding problems in microscopic nuclear structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Higher-order factorization machine for accurate surrogate modeling in material design

Efficient and robust optimization is important in material science for identifying optimal structural parameters and enhancing material performance. Surrogate-based active learning algorithms have recently gained great attention for their ability to efficiently navigate large, high-dimensional design spaces. Among surrogate models, 2 nd -order factorization machine (FM) models are widely employed as the surrogate model in active learning algorithms due to their balance between simplicity and effectiveness. However, their quadratic nature limits their capacity to capture complex, higher-order interactions among variables, often leading to suboptimal solutions. To overcome this limitation, we propose an active learning scheme integrating a 3 rd -order FM model, capable of modeling three-variable interactions and more intricate relationships in material systems. We comprehensively evaluate the surrogate modeling performance of the 3 rd -order FM case using various objective functions. Furthermore, we examine the optimization reliability and efficiency of the 3 rd -order FM-based active learning in a real-world material design task (e.g., nanophotonic structures for transparent radiative cooling). Our study shows that the 3 rd -order FM outperforms the 2 nd -order model in both surrogate accuracy and optimization performance, highlighting higher-order models’ promises for material design and optimization problems.

Factorization machine↗