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DOE OSTI2025

PNNL-ANL Hydrometeorological Super Ensemble

The current dataset contains data upload links to the following hydrologic (water balance), river routing (water management), and hydropower simulation data over CONUS: Climate Forcing: ClimRR (https://climrr.anl.gov/climrrdata) Simulation Scenario: Historical, Mid-Century, End-Century Simulation Period: 1995-2004, 2045-2054, 2085-2094 Simulation Models: VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity), mosartwmpy (Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport-Water Management in Python), and PNNL B1Hydro Output Format: NetCDF and CSV

Tidwell, Vincent C [Pacific Northwest National Lab↗

DOE OSTI2026

Three-Dimensional Grid Visualization for Planning Activities: A Dubai Case Study

National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), in collaboration with the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) and Infra-X, has undertaken the Energy Visualization Analysis Project. The aim of this project is to enhance analytical and 3D visualization capabilities for distribution network planning and renewable energy integration. As modern grid continues to evolve with large-scale solar PV deployment and emerging distributed energy resources (DERs), the ability to effectively analyze, visualize, and communicate complex grid behaviors has become increasingly critical. The project focuses on developing empirical use cases based on real distribution feeder data and engineering workflows, ensuring the outcomes are directly aligned with operational environment. Through time-series power flow simulations and nodal hosting capacity analysis, the study quantifies the impacts of high PV penetration on voltage and thermal limits within representative 11 kV feeders. These analyses identify specific nodes and conditions where DER integration challenges arise. Furthermore, a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) optimization algorithm was applied to determine the optimal size and placement of storage systems that can mitigate network constraints and enhance hosting capacity. The comparative results between base-case and BESS-augmented scenarios clearly demonstrate improvements in network stability and load management efficiency. In parallel, the NLR team developed an immersive 3D visualization framework, enabling interactive exploration of grid simulations using commodity head-mounted display (HMD) systems. This framework transforms conventional 2D simulation data into spatially intuitive visual environments - allowing engineers to analyze feeder conditions, PV hosting potential, and BESS effects in real time. This report represents the first foundational phase in establishing a visualization-driven analytical ecosystem. It provides a methodological foundation for data integration, visualization architecture, and simulation-based decision support, paving the way for large-scale adoption of immersive visualization across DEWA's Smart Grid Initiative, R&D activities, and future network resilience studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Machine learning in a data-limited regime: Augmenting experiments with synthetic data uncovers order in crumpled sheets

Machine learning has gained widespread attention as a powerful tool to identify structure in complex, high-dimensional data. However, these techniques are ostensibly inapplicable for experimental systems where data are scarce or expensive to obtain. Here, we introduce a strategy to resolve this impasse by augmenting the experimental dataset with synthetically generated data of a much simpler sister system. Specifically, we study spontaneously emerging local order in crease networks of crumpled thin sheets, a paradigmatic example of spatial complexity, and show that machine learning techniques can be effective even in a data-limited regime. This is achieved by augmenting the scarce experimental dataset with inexhaustible amounts of simulated data of rigid flat-folded sheets, which are simple to simulate and share common statistical properties. This considerably improves the predictive power in a test problem of pattern completion and demonstrates the usefulness of machine learning in bench-top experiments where data are good but scarce.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Assessment of dedicated low-dose cardiac micro-CT reconstruction algorithms using the left ventricular volume of small rodents as a performance measure

Purpose: Phase-correlated microcomputed tomography (micro-CT) imaging plays an important role in the assessment of mouse models of cardiovascular diseases and the determination of functional parameters as the left ventricular volume. As the current gold standard, the phase-correlated Feldkamp reconstruction (PCF), shows poor performance in case of low dose scans, more sophisticated reconstruction algorithms have been proposed to enable low-dose imaging. In this study, the authors focus on the McKinnon-Bates (MKB) algorithm, the low dose phase-correlated (LDPC) reconstruction, and the high-dimensional total variation minimization reconstruction (HDTV) and investigate their potential to accurately determine the left ventricular volume at different dose levels from 50 to 500 mGy. The results were verified in phantom studies of a five-dimensional (5D) mathematical mouse phantom. Methods: Micro-CT data of eight mice, each administered with an x-ray dose of 500 mGy, were acquired, retrospectively gated for cardiac and respiratory motion and reconstructed using PCF, MKB, LDPC, and HDTV. Dose levels down to 50 mGy were simulated by using only a fraction of the projections. Contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) was evaluated as a measure of image quality. Left ventricular volume was determined using different segmentation algorithms (Otsu, level sets, region growing). Forward projections of the 5D mouse phantom were performed to simulate a micro-CT scan. The simulated data were processed the same way as the real mouse data sets. Results: Compared to the conventional PCF reconstruction, the MKB, LDPC, and HDTV algorithm yield images of increased quality in terms of CNR. While the MKB reconstruction only provides small improvements, a significant increase of the CNR is observed in LDPC and HDTV reconstructions. The phantom studies demonstrate that left ventricular volumes can be determined accurately at 500 mGy. For lower dose levels which were simulated for real mouse data sets, the HDTV algorithm shows the best performance. At 50 mGy, the deviation from the reference obtained at 500 mGy were less than 4%. Also the LDPC algorithm provides reasonable results with deviation less than 10% at 50 mGy while PCF and MKB reconstruction show larger deviations even at higher dose levels. Conclusions: LDPC and HDTV increase CNR and allow for quantitative evaluations even at dose levels as low as 50 mGy. The left ventricular volumes exemplarily illustrate that cardiac parameters can be accurately estimated at lowest dose levels if sophisticated algorithms are used. This allows to reduce dose by a factor of 10 compared to today's gold standard and opens new options for longitudinal studies of the heart.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A detailed experimental and modeling comparison of molecular radiative heat loss in a spark-ignition engine

Radiative heat transfer has been chiefly considered negligible in internal combustion engines, except for Diesel engines where soot radiation was recognized as a significant radiative transfer source. Only more recently, detailed simulations have shown that molecular radiation can be substantial as well. In extension to this, molecular radiative heat transfer can reach detectable levels of about 5–10% of the total heat transfer in spark-ignited engines. The broadband radiative nature of the significant emitting molecules, carbon dioxide and water, makes it necessary to address whether radiative trapping plays a substantial role in either total heat loss or energy redistribution within the cylinder. An experimental setup that allows measurements of the infrared emissions at a 2-crank-angle-degree resolution was developed to determine the importance of radiative trapping by carbon dioxide and water. Measurements were conducted in the well-characterized and documented TCC-III engine at the University of Michigan. The engine operated on a stoichiometric propane/air mixture at a speed of 1,300 RPM. Large Eddy Simulations with added line-by-line photon Monte-Carlo simulations of the molecular radiation were an integral part of this study to plan and devise the measurements. Post-processing of the simulation data included an accurate representation of the experimental volume from where infrared signals are collected. Additionally, the experimental data were used for validation of the photon Monte-Carlo simulations. Joint analysis of experimental and simulated spectra allowed quantifying the significance of radiative trapping. Results show the significant role of radiative trapping when predicting radiative heat transfer in the TCC-III engine.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Efficient modeling of optically-complex, non-coplanar exterior shading: Validation of matrix algebraic methods

It has long been established that shading windows with overhangs, fins, and other types of non-coplanar systems (NCS) is one of the most effective ways of controlling solar heat gains in buildings because they intercept solar radiation prior to entry into the building. Designers however often specify non-opaque materials (e.g., louvers, fritted glass, expanded metal mesh) for these systems in order to admit daylight, reduce lighting energy use, and improve indoor environmental quality. Most simulation tools rely on geometric calculations and radiosity methods to model the solar heat gain impacts of NCS and cannot model optically-complex materials or geometries. For daylighting analysis, optically-complex NCS can be modeled using matrix algebraic methods, although time-efficient parametric analysis has not yet been implemented. Determining the best design and/or material for static or operable NCS that minimize cooling, heating, and lighting energy use and peak demand requires an iterative process. This study describes and validates a matrix algebraic method that enables parametric energy analysis of NCS. Such capabilities would be useful not only for design but also for development of prescriptive energy-efficiency standards, rating and labeling systems for commercial products, development of design guidelines, and development of more optimal NCS technologies. A facade or “F” matrix, which maps the transfer of flux from the NCS to the surface of the window, is introduced and its use is explained. A field study was conducted in a full-scale outdoor testbed to measure the daylight performance of an operable drop-arm awning. Simulated data were compared to measured data in order to validate the models. Results demonstrated model accuracy: simulated workplane illuminance was within 11–13%, surface luminance was within 16–18%, and the daylight glare probability was within 6–9% of measured results. Methods used to achieve accurate results are discussed. Results of the validation of daylighting performance are applicable to solar heat gain performance. Since exterior shading can also significantly reduce peak demand, these models enable stakeholders to more accurately assess HVAC and lighting impacts in support of grid management and resiliency goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Viscoelastic necking dynamics between attractive microgels

Hypothesis: Microgels can deform and interpenetrate and display colloid/polymer duality. The effective interaction of microgels in the collapsed state is governed by the interplay of polymer–solvent interfacial tension and bulk elasticity. A connecting neck is shown to mediate microgel interaction, but its temporal evolution has not been addressed. Here we hypothesize that the necking dynamics of attractive microgels exhibits liquid-like or solid-like behavior over different time and length scales. Experiments: We simulate the merging and pinching of attractive microgels with different crosslinking densities in explicit solvent using dissipative particle dynamics. The temporal coalescence dynamics of microgels is investigated and compared with simple liquid and polymeric droplets. We model the neck growth on long time scales using Maxwell model of polymer relaxation and compare the theoretical prediction with simulation data. The mechanical strength of the neck is characterized systematically via simulated pinch-off of microgels by steered molecular dynamics. Findings: We evidence a crossover in the coalescence dynamics reflecting the viscoelastic signature of microgels. In contrast to the common knowledge that viscoelastic materials respond elastically on short time scales, the early expansion of the microgel neck exhibits a linear behavior, similar to the viscous coalescence of liquid droplets. However, the late regime with arrested dynamics resembles sintering of solid particles. Through an analytical model relating microgel dynamics to neck growth, we show that the long-term behavior is governed by stress relaxation of the polymers in the neck region and predict an exponential decay in the rate of growth, which agrees favorably with the simulation. Different from coalescence, the thread thinning in microgel breakup primarily highlights its polymeric characteristics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment and Performance of Flexible Quench Antenna Array Diagnostics for Superconducting Magnets

FNAL has been developing multiple versions of flexible quench antennas (flex-QA), including some specially optimized for high sensitivity and/or high resolution, to characterize quench events and transients during current ramping in superconducting magnets. A fundamental feature in our use of these is the creation of grid-like structures of sensitive elements to cover coil surfaces, with the aim of getting precise localization of magnetic flux-change events. The flex-QA are coupled with fast data-acquisition, allowing comprehensive analysis of signals at the relevant fine time scales. In addition to arrays of various flex-QA types being used during cryogenic testing of superconducting magnets, we also are utilizing a newly developed room temperature test stand to better understand QA response characteristics. The data from actual superconducting magnet tests, warm test stand measurements, and simulation data on the same QA designs allows us to draw conclusions on operational feasibility and plan better for improvements of our sensors. In this paper we present data from the multiple tests performed and analysis results. Flex-QA designs are compared, and their features, options, and optimization discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Validation of Varian TrueBeam electron phase–spaces for Monte Carlo simulation of MLC-shaped fields

Purpose: This work evaluates Varian’s electron phase–space sources for Monte Carlo simulation of the TrueBeam for modulated electron radiation therapy (MERT) and combined, modulated photon and electron radiation therapy (MPERT) where fields are shaped by the photon multileaf collimator (MLC) and delivered at 70 cm SSD. Methods: Monte Carlo simulations performed with EGSnrc-based BEAMnrc/DOSXYZnrc and PENELOPE-based PRIMO are compared against diode measurements for 5 × 5, 10 × 10, and 20 × 20 cm{sup 2} MLC-shaped fields delivered with 6, 12, and 20 MeV electrons at 70 cm SSD (jaws set to 40 × 40 cm{sup 2}). Depth dose curves and profiles are examined. In addition, EGSnrc-based simulations of relative output as a function of MLC-field size and jaw-position are compared against ion chamber measurements for MLC-shaped fields between 3 × 3 and 25 × 25 cm{sup 2} and jaw positions that range from the MLC-field size to 40 × 40 cm{sup 2}. Results: Percent depth dose curves generated by BEAMnrc/DOSXYZnrc and PRIMO agree with measurement within 2%, 2 mm except for PRIMO’s 12 MeV, 20 × 20 cm{sup 2} field where 90% of dose points agree within 2%, 2 mm. Without the distance to agreement, differences between measurement and simulation are as large as 7.3%. Characterization of simulated dose parameters such as FWHM, penumbra width and depths of 90%, 80%, 50%, and 20% dose agree within 2 mm of measurement for all fields except for the FWHM of the 6 MeV, 20 × 20 cm{sup 2} field which falls within 2 mm distance to agreement. Differences between simulation and measurement exist in the profile shoulders and penumbra tails, in particular for 10 × 10 and 20 × 20 cm{sup 2} fields of 20 MeV electrons, where both sets of simulated data fall short of measurement by as much as 3.5%. BEAMnrc/DOSXYZnrc simulated outputs agree with measurement within 2.3% except for 6 MeV MLC-shaped fields. Discrepancies here are as great as 5.5%. Conclusions: TrueBeam electron phase–spaces available from Varian have been implemented in two distinct Monte Carlo simulation packages to produce dose distributions and outputs that largely reflect measurement. Differences exist in the profile shoulders and penumbra tails for the 20 MeV phase–space off-axis and in the outputs for the 6 MeV phase–space.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

MO-FG-209-02: Development of a Virtual Breast Phantom From a Multi-Modality Perspective

This symposium will review recent advances in the simulation methods for evaluation of novel breast imaging systems – the subject of AAPM Task Group TG234. Our focus will be on the various approaches to development and validation of software anthropomorphic phantoms and their use in the statistical assessment of novel imaging systems using such phantoms along with computational models for the x-ray image formation process. Due to the dynamic development and complex design of modern medical imaging systems, the simulation of anatomical structures, image acquisition modalities, and the image perception and analysis offers substantial benefits of reduced cost, duration, and radiation exposure, as well as the known ground-truth and wide variability in simulated anatomies. For these reasons, Virtual Clinical Trials (VCTs) have been increasingly accepted as a viable tool for preclinical assessment of x-ray and other breast imaging methods. Activities of TG234 have encompassed the optimization of protocols for simulation studies, including phantom specifications, the simulated data representation, models of the imaging process, and statistical assessment of simulated images. The symposium will discuss the state-of-the-science of VCTs for novel breast imaging systems, emphasizing recent developments and future directions. Presentations will discuss virtual phantoms for intermodality breast imaging performance comparisons, extension of the breast anatomy simulation to the cellular level, optimized integration of the simulated imaging chain, and the novel directions in the observer models design. Learning Objectives: Review novel results in developing and applying virtual phantoms for inter-modality breast imaging performance comparisons; Discuss the efforts to extend the computer simulation of breast anatomy and pathology to the cellular level; Summarize the state of the science in optimized integration of modules in the simulated imaging chain; Compare novel directions in the design of observer models for task based validation of imaging systems. PB: Research funding support from the NIH, NSF, and Komen for the Cure; NIH funded collaboration with Barco, Inc. and Hologic, Inc.; Consultant to Delaware State Univ. and NCCPM, UK. AA: Employed at Barco Healthcare.; P. Bakic, NIH: (NIGMS P20 #GM103446, NCI R01 #CA154444); M. Das, NIH Research grants.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

MO-FG-209-05: Towards a Feature-Based Anthropomorphic Model Observer

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Validation of Deterministic Broadband Ground Motion and Variability from Dynamic Rupture Simulations of Buried Thrust Earthquakes

According to the article, we numerically model broadband ground motion (up to 5–7.5 Hz⁠) from blind‐thrust scenario earthquakes matching the fault geometry of the 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge earthquake. Several realizations are modeled (by varying the hypocenter location in the dynamic rupture simulation) in a 1D‐layered velocity profile. In addition, we include Q(f )⁠, nonlinear effects from Drucker–Prager plasticity, and superimpose small‐scale medium complexity in both a 1D‐layered and 3D velocity model within the subsequent wave propagation. We investigate characteristics of the ground motion and its variability up to 50 km from the fault by comparing them with ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs), simple proxy metrics, as well as strong ground motion records from the Northridge event. We find that median ground motion closely follows the trend predicted by GMPEs and that the intraevent standard deviation, although varying with hypocenter location, lies near that of GMPE models. Plasticity affects ground‐motion amplitudes in regions near the source, reducing intraevent variability above ∼0.5 Hz⁠. Heterogeneity in the velocity structure on both the regional and small scales is needed for the simulated data to match two proxy metrics: the period‐to‐period correlation of spectral acceleration (SA) and the ratio of maximum‐to‐median SA. Although small‐scale heterogeneity has a negligible effect on median SA for this style of rupture, it serves to significantly increase the cumulative absolute velocity, better agreeing with observations. When compared with strong‐motion data, we find that long‐wavelength velocity structure within our deterministic simulations reduces bias at both short and long periods. Finally, synthetic ground motion at both footwall and hanging‐wall sites has no clear dependence on the distance to rupture (at both short and long periods); directivity is likely overpowering any hanging‐wall effect.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Bayesian approach to multivariate measurement system assessment

This article considers system assessment for multivariate measurements and presents a Bayesian approach to analyzing gauge R&R study data. The evaluation of variances for univariate measurement becomes the evaluation of covariance matrices for multivariate measurements. The Bayesian approach ensures positive definite estimates of the covariance matrices and easily provides their uncertainty. Furthermore, various measurement system assessment criteria are easily evaluated. The approach is illustrated with data from a real gauge R&R study as well as simulated data.

random effects↗

DOE OSTI2019

Development and Calibration of an Online Energy Model for AHU Fan

The model development is necessary for the study of the energy consumption of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. To predict the HVAC energy consumption accurately, one needs to model the individual HVAC components either from the measured data or based on the knowledge of the underlying physical phenomenon. Online model characterization is critical for improving the performance of real-time model-based fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) strategies. For HVAC control, models can be used to optimize the supervisory and local feedback control strategies to improve the energy consumption efficiency, or for providing ancillary services to the grid. It has been reported that, fans in HVAC systems of commercial buildings alone can provide substantial frequency regulation service, with little change in the indoor environment. In this paper, a real-time data-driven Air Handling Unit (AHU) fan model was developed based on recursive multi regression model. A generic nonlinear polynomial model has been studied to cover scenarios with different combinations of measurement variables, variable orders as well as different training and prediction horizons. Typical measurements including static pressure, mass flow rate, and damper positions are utilized as inputs to model the power consumption of the fan. The developed models have been validated both with simulation data from EnergyPlus-Dymola co-simulation model and with field measurement data for small to medium commercial buildings. The validation results show that the online model proposed can provide an effective prediction of the AHU fan power consumption.

Dong, Jin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of the Cu oxidation state from EELS and XAS spectra using supervised machine learning

Abstract Electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) and X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) provide detailed information about bonding, distributions and locations of atoms, and their coordination numbers and oxidation states. However, analysis of XAS/EELS data often relies on matching an unknown experimental sample to a series of simulated or experimental standard samples. This limits analysis throughput and the ability to extract quantitative information from a sample. In this work, we have trained a random forest model capable of predicting the oxidation state of copper based on its L-edge spectrum. Our model attains an R 2 score of 0.85 and a root mean square error of 0.24 on simulated data. It has also successfully predicted experimental L-edge EELS spectra taken in this work and XAS spectra extracted from the literature. We further demonstrate the utility of this model by predicting simulated and experimental spectra of mixed valence samples generated by this work. This model can be integrated into a real-time EELS/XAS analysis pipeline on mixtures of copper-containing materials of unknown composition and oxidation state. By expanding the training data, this methodology can be extended to data-driven spectral analysis of a broad range of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter‐birth intervals

Abstract Accurate estimates of fecundity rate are key to population assessments and effectively direct conservation efforts. We present a new approach to estimate fecundity rate based on the probability of a female giving birth, conditional on a previous birth t years ago, from which an expected inter‐birth interval ( IBI ) can be estimated. We use generalized linear mixed‐effects models to account for individual and temporal variability and apply the approach to individual reproductive histories of bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) from the east coast of Scotland. We estimate a fecundity rate of 0.222 (95% CI = 0.218–0.253) and an expected IBI of 4.49 yr (95% CI = 3.94–4.93 yr). We use simulated data samples to show that the approach produces estimates with a minimum bias of <3%. Simulations are also used to investigate the effect of the most common data‐driven biases in the estimates of birth intervals and fecundity rate; we recommend longitudinal studies of at least 10 yr and capture probabilities of at least 0.3 when using this methodology. The approach may be modified to incorporate other parameters of interest and should be applicable to any population with comprehensive data on birth intervals.

Arso Civil, Mònica↗

DOE OSTI2020

In-Situ Inference: Bringing Advanced Data Science Into Exascale Simulations

As simulations generate ever-increasing amounts of data, there are correspondingly richer opportunities for analysis and scientific discovery - discoveries that will be missed if most of the data must be discarded before it is analyzed. Because future exascale architectures will be increasingly storage-limited, it will not be possible to save the vast majority of simulation data for later analysis, requiring analysis to occur “in-situ” within the simulation. However, existing in-situ data analysis frameworks provide little or no support for one of the most sophisticated forms of data science: probabilistic statistical modeling or uncertainty quantification (UQ), and the accompanying challenge of inference - fitting those statistical models to massive simulation output. Our goal is to develop the fundamental statistical algorithms and computer science needed to perform statistical inference in-situ (in HPC simulations) to the full stream of data those simulations generate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Feasibility of Using Fourier Neural Operators for 3D Elastic Seismic Simulations

Seismic simulations in three-dimensional (3D) Earth models are important in many of the seismological applications related to our lab’s mission, however, accurate high-fidelity simulations are computationally costly. We investigated the capabilities of the newly developed Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) to solve the 3D elastic wave equations for seismic simulations. We generated simulation data for training the FNO model, and analyzed its performance on various test cases, such as the performance with different number of training data, different resolutions, and on more canonical structures. We found the FNO model can reproduce 3D seismic simulations with high accuracy and ~169 times faster on a small spatial grid size of 16 x 16 x16. When applied on higher resolution data, we found that transfer learning with fine-tuning on a small amount of data achieves reasonable results. This feasibility study showed promising results for using FNO’s for 3D seismic simulations and represents the foundation of further research to develop this into a more mature approach for different seismological applications. The potential impact of this project will provide techniques for large-scale or real-time applications of solving PEDs in support of national lab’s programs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗