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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Production Forecasting

A main challenge for integrating the intermittent photovoltaic (PV) power generation remains the accuracy of day-ahead forecasts and the establishment of robust performing methods. The purpose of this work is to address these technological challenges by evaluating the day-ahead PV production forecasting performance of different machine learning models under different supervised learning regimes and minimal input features. Specifically, the day-ahead forecasting capability of Bayesian neural network (BNN), support vector regression (SVR), and regression tree (RT) models was investigated by employing the same dataset for training and performance verification, thus enabling a valid comparison. The training regime analysis demonstrated that the performance of the investigated models was strongly dependent on the timeframe of the train set, training data sequence, and application of irradiance condition filters. Furthermore, accurate results were obtained utilizing only the measured power output and other calculated parameters for training. Consequently, useful information is provided for establishing a robust day-ahead forecasting methodology that utilizes calculated input parameters and an optimal supervised learning approach. Finally, the obtained results demonstrated that the optimally constructed BNN outperformed all other machine learning models achieving forecasting accuracies lower than 5%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solar burst with millimetre-wave emission at high frequency only

The first high sensitivity and high time-resolution observations of a solar burst taken simultaneously at 90 GHz and at 30 GHz are presented. These identify a unique impulsive burst on May 21, 1984 with fast pulsed emission that was considerably more intense at 90 GHz than at lower frequencies. Hard X-ray time structures at energies above 25 keV were almost identical to the 90 GHz structures to better than 1 s. The structure of the onset of the major 90 GHz burst coincided with the hard X-ray structure to within 128 ms. All 90 GHz major time structures consisted of trains of multiple subsecond pulses with rise times as short as 0.03 s and amplitudes that were large compared with the mean flux. When detectable, the 30 GHz subsecond pulses had smaller relative amplitude and were in phase with the corresponding 90 GHz pulses.

Kaufmann, P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Lunar Polar Ice Prospector, RESOLVE: Mission Rehearsal in Apollo Valley

After the completion of the Apollo Program, space agencies didn't visit the moon for many years. But then in the 90's, the Clementine and Lunar Prospector missions returned and showed evidence of water ice at the poles. Then in 2009 the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite indisputably showed that the Cabeus crater contained water ice and other useful volatiles. Furthermore, instruments aboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) show evidence that the water ice may also be present in areas that receive several days of continuous sunlight each month. However, before we can factor this resource into our mission designs, we must understand the distribution and quantity of ice or other volatiles at the poles and whether it can be reasonably harvested for use as propellant or mission consumables. NASA, in partnership with the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), has been developing a payload to answer these questions. The payload is named RESOLVE. RESOLVE is on a development path that will deliver a tested flight design by the end of 2014. The team has developed a Design Reference Mission using LRO data that has RESOLVE landing near Cabeus Crater in May of2016. One of the toughest obstacles for RESOLVE's solar powered mission is its tight timeline. RESOLVE must be able to complete its objectives in the 5-7 days of available sunlight. The RESOLVE team must be able to work around obstacles to the mission timeline in real time. They can't afford to take a day off to replan as other planetary missions have done. To insure that this mission can be executed as planned, a prototype version of RESOLVE was developed this year and tested at a lunar analog site on Hawaii, known as Apollo Valley, which was once used to train the Apollo astronauts. The RESOLVE team planned the mission with the same type of orbital imagery that would be available from LRO. The simulation team prepositioned a Lander in Apollo Valley with RESOLVE on top mounted on its CSA rover. Then the mission simulation began as the operations team's consoles came alive with data and images. They executed the mission just like the real mission with lunar communications delays and limited bandwidth and a realistic remote mission control room. This paper will describe the RESOLVE payload in detail and describe the results of the mission simulation in Hawaii.

Larson, William E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Human Health and Performance Considerations for Exploration of Near-Earth Asteroids

This presentation will describe the human health and performance issues that are anticipated for the human exploration of near-Earth asteroids (NEA). Humans are considered a system in the design of any such deep-space exploration mission, and exploration of NEA presents unique challenges for the human system. Key factors that define the mission are those that are strongly affected by distance and duration. The most critical of these is deep-space radiation exposure without even the temporary shielding of a nearby large planetary body. The current space radiation permissible exposure limits (PEL) restrict mission duration to 3-10 months depending on age and gender of crewmembers and stage of the solar cycle. Factors that affect mission architecture include medical capability; countermeasures for bone, muscle, and cardiovascular atrophy during continuous weightlessness; restricted food supplies; and limited habitable volume. The design of a habitat that can maintain the physical and psychological health of the crew and support mission operations with limited intervention from Earth will require an integrated research and development effort by NASA s Human Research Program, engineering, and human factors groups. Limited abort and return options for an NEA mission are anticipated to have important effects on crew psychology as well as influence medical supplies and training requirements of the crew. Other important factors are those related to isolation, confinement, communication delays, autonomous operations, task design, small crew size, and even the unchanging view outside the windows for most of the mission. Geological properties of the NEA will influence design of sample handling and containment, and extravehicular activity capabilities including suit ports and tools. A robotic precursor mission that collects basic information on NEA surface properties would reduce uncertainty about these aspects of the mission as well as aid in design of mission architecture and exploration tasks.

Kundrot, Craig↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine Learning-Based PV Reserve Determination Strategy for Frequency Control on the WECC System

This paper proposes a machine learning based strategy, that is suitable for real-time operation, to determine the optimal photovoltaic (PV) power plants reserve for frequency control. The proposed machine learning algorithm is trained and tested on 1,987 offline simulations of a 60% renewable penetration Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. On a realistic 1-day operation profile of the WECC system, the ML model demonstrates a savings of more than 40% PV headroom compared to a conservative approach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2022

Ideas on the NASA Senior Review and Mission Extension Process

Extended mission budgets fund a significant part of our community, particularly young scientists who in a relatively short time are exposed to a broad range of experiences and opportunities available in space science and other STEM fields. In particular, mission-funded science offers a relatively stable funding stream that enables meaningful mentoring efforts and interactions, including apprenticeships ranging from project management, to mission operations, to data processing and analysis, to hardware and software development, to STEM-related education and outreach. It moreover provides professional contacts that fuel diversity in mission leadership and in the science and technical workforce at-large. Last but not least, it sustains the scientific productivity of NASA’s missions, which constitute major national investments meriting their full exploitation. Budgets cuts, however, are exercising pressure on the science and operations of the extended mission fleet despite being only a small portion of the overall Division budget. The history of Heliophysics has demonstrated that maintaining the operation of missions beyond their prime phase invariably leads to a much deeper knowledge of the original mission science goals, together with new applications often not foreseen during their original design. Their operation as part of the Heliophysics System Observatory (HSO)---a coordinated, 1eliophysics, multipoint observing system of the heliosphere, is a prime example. Some of the first activities undertaken by the Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter missions required recreating the larger context of their new observations by using the diversity of HSO mission capabilities. The marginal cost of maintaining this valuable, working science resource, in the form of both continuing high quality data access and expertise, is small compared to the cost of the original missions or of new missions to achieve similar objectives, making the operation of extended missions, the best “science per dollar” investment in Heliophysics. We argue that reducing both extended mission operations and science budgets will have a ripple effect across the community, including reducing employment and training opportunities for young scientists, to lowering the quality/impact of the Heliophysics Systems Observatory. Instead, we suggest that the proposal process for mission extension should be re-examined. We offer several ideas for reducing costs of extended missions toward maintaining science output and streamlining the management process.

A. Vourlidas↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using machine learning to derive cloud condensation nuclei number concentrations from commonly available measurements

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations are an important aspect of aerosol–cloud interactions and the subsequent climate effects; however, their measurements are very limited. We use a machine learning tool, random decision forests, to develop a random forest regression model (RFRM) to derive CCN at 0.4 % supersaturation ([CCN0.4]) from commonly available measurements. The RFRM is trained on the long-term simulations in a global size-resolved particle microphysics model. Using atmospheric state and composition variables as predictors, through associations of their variabilities, the RFRM is able to learn the underlying dependence of [CCN0.4] on these predictors, which are as follows: eight fractions of PM 2.5 (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3, secondary organic aerosol (SOA), black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (POC), dust, and salt), seven gaseous species (NO x , NH 3 , O 3 , SO 2 , OH, isoprene, and monoterpene), and four meteorological variables (temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), precipitation, and solar radiation). The RFRM is highly robust: it has a median mean fractional bias (MFB) of 4.4 % with ≈96.33 % of the derived [CCN0.4] within a good agreement range of -60% 2.5 speciation (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3 , and organic carbon (OC)), NO x , O 3 , SO 2 , T, and RH, as well as [CCN0.4] are available. We modify, optimize, and retrain the developed RFRM to make predictions from 19 to 9 of these available predictors. This retrained RFRM (RFRM-ShortVars) shows a reduction in performance due to the unavailability and sparsity of measurements (predictors); it captures the [CCN0.4] variability and magnitude at SGP with ≈67.02 % of the derived values in the good agreement range. This work shows the potential of using the more commonly available measurements of PM 2.5 speciation to alleviate the sparsity of CCN number concentrations' measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A geospatial risk analysis graphical user interface for identifying hazardous chemical emission sources

Background: Performing back trajectory and forward trajectory using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) is a reliable approach for assessing particle transport after release among mid-field atmospheric models. HYSPLIT has an externally facing online interface that allows non-expert users to run the model trajectories without requiring extensive training or programming. However, the existing HYSPLIT interface is limited if simulations have a large amount of meteorological data and timesteps that are not coincident. The objective of this study is to design and develop a more robust tool to rapidly evaluate hazard transport conditions and to perform risk analysis, while still maintaining an intuitive and user-friendly interface. Methods: HYSPLIT calculates forward and backward trajectories of particles based on wind speed, wind direction, and the corresponding location, timestamp, and Pasquill stability classes of the regions of the atmosphere in terms of the wind speed, the amount of solar radiation, and the fractional cloud cover. The computed particle transport trajectories, combined with the online Proton Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) data (https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/ARL_Data_from_PROS_station_at_Hanford_site/19993964), can be used to identify and quantify the sources and affected area of the hazardous chemicals’ emission using the potential source distribution function (PSDF). PSDF is an improved statistical function based on the well-known potential source contribution function (PSCF) in establishing the air pollutant source and receptor relationship. Performing this analysis requires a range of meteorological and pollutant concentration measurements to be statistically meaningful. The existing HYSPLIT graphical user interface (GUI) does not easily permit computations of trajectories of a dataset of meteorological data in high temporal frequency. To improve the performance of HYSPLIT computations from a large dataset and enhance risk analysis of the accidental release of material at risk, a geospatial risk analysis tool (GRAT-GUI) is created to allow large data sets to be processed instantaneously and to provide ease of visualization. Results: The GRAT-GUI is a native desktop-based application and can be run in any Windows 10 system without any internet access requirements, thus providing a secure way to process large meteorological datasets even on a standalone computer. GRAT-GUI has features to import, integrate, and convert meteorological data with various formats for hazardous chemical emission source identification and risk analysis as a self-explanatory user interface. The tool is available at https://figshare.com/articles/software/GRAT/19426742.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2023

Advancing Solar and Heliospheric Science Through the Ongoing Development and Support of Atomic and Laboratory Plasma Physics

This paper outlines the necessity for the availability, accessibility, and expansion of atomic physics data and analysis tools for the meaningful interpretation of spectroscopic and polarimetric observations. As we move towards observing the Sun at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, and near-continuously at a range of wavelengths, it becomes critical to develop the appropriate atomic data and physics tools to facilitate scientific progress. We recommend the continued improvement and expansion of current databases to support the development of optically-thick/radiative transfer models, evaluate non-thermal and non-equilibrium ionization effects, and quantify uncertainties in atomic and molecular values. A critical longterm goal will require extending and strengthening collaborations across the atomic, solar/heliospheric, and laboratory plasma physics communities through the participation and training of early career scientists. We also recommend establishing funding for a centralized atomic physics resource made up of a comprehensive and user-oriented atomic database and modeling framework.

Y J Rivera↗
DOE OSTI2025

Safe Reinforcement Learning-Based Transient Stability Control for Islanded Microgrids With Topology Reconfiguration

This paper proposes a safe reinforcement learning (RL)-based transient stability emergency control (TSEC) method for islanded microgrids. RL requires extensive interaction with the environment to learn control strategies, hence, a data-driven approach is used as a substitute for time-consuming time-domain simulation calculations. Deep sigma point processes (DSPP), which is a Gaussian process model, is utilized to predict the normal distribution of transient stability of microgrids and to construct a transient stability chance constraint. Reward-constrained policy optimization (RCPO) can simultaneously achieve objective prediction, policy learning, and constraint cost coefficient update across multiple timescales. RCPO interacts with the DSPP-based microgrid environment through a multi-process parallel manner, greatly increasing the training speed. Case studies on a real islanded microgrid demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently and quickly obtain the optimal emergency control strategy while adhering to all hard constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Control of Energy Transport and Transduction in Photosynthetic Down-Conversion (Final Technical Report)

The research conducted under this contract focused on three areas related to control of energy transport and transduction in natural and synthetic light harvesting systems: (1) experimental and theoretical studies exploring the use of ultrafast laser pulse shaping to manipulate the initially excited states of multi-chromophore biological light harvesting networks and influence the early time energy transfer and electronic and vibrational relaxation pathways, (2) fundamental theoretical developments aimed at computing and analyzing the dynamics of excitations of complex heterogeneous environments and nano structures, and (3) joint experimental and theoretical design studies of artificial light harvesting materials exploring the influence of incorporating different types of organic layers in low dimensional lead halide perovskite materials on their hot carrier relaxation dynamics, and theoretical studies of the design of nano structured light harvesting antenna systems. These research projects supported the training of three theoretical and computational graduate students, one experimental graduate student, and one experimental post-doctoral researcher. The research has been published in seven peer reviewed papers and presented at several international meetings and workshops.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2014

The NASA Solar System Exploration Virtual Institute: International Efforts in Advancing Lunar Science with Prospects for the Future

The NASA Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI), originally chartered in 2008 as the NASA Lunar Science Institute (NLSI), is chartered to advance both the scientific goals needed to enable human space exploration, as well as the science enabled by such exploration. NLSI and SSERVI have in succession been "institutes without walls," fostering collaboration between domestic teams (7 teams for NLSI, 9 for SSERVI) as well as between these teams and the institutes' international partners, resulting in a greater global endeavor. SSERVI teams and international partners participate in sharing ideas, information, and data arising from their respective research efforts, and contribute to the training of young scientists and bringing the scientific results and excitement of exploration to the public. The domestic teams also respond to NASA's strategic needs, providing community-based responses to NASA needs in partnership with NASA's Analysis Groups. Through the many partnerships enabled by NLSI and SSERVI, scientific results have well exceeded initial projections based on the original PI proposals, proving the validity of the virtual institute model. NLSI and SSERVI have endeavored to represent not just the selected and funded domestic teams, but rather the entire relevant scientific community; this has been done through many means such as the annual Lunar Science Forum (now re-named Exploration Science Forum), community-based grass roots Focus Groups on a wide range of topics, and groups chartered to further the careers of young scientists. Additionally, NLSI and SSERVI have co-founded international efforts such as the pan-European lunar science consortium, with an overall goal of raising the tide of lunar science (and now more broadly exploration science) across the world.

Institute↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Role of Tactile Cueing in Multimodal Displays: Application in Complex Task Environments for Space Exploration

This paper reviews the potential role of tactile cueing in multimodal displays that will need to be developed to enable Extravehicular Activity (EVA) and telerobotic exploration for both Moon and Mars missions. Specific missions to be accomplished during EVA surface and space operations will include construction and assembly, surface and geologic exploration, and excavation for protective shelter from radiation and significant solar particle events. EVA crews have limited time, resources, mobility, visibility and dexterity, and activities take place in a perceptually impoverished environment. Limitations include a loss of spatial reference frame leading to spatial disorientation, a loss of information normally provided by the auditory and somato-sensory systems, and a restricted field of view. In addition, in non-surface operations crew must be able to navigate and operate in a fully six degree of freedom (DoF) environment. Fatigue resulting from suited EVA tasks will also critically affect performance and safety. In order to mitigate these factors, it is important that crews be well trained prior to executing actual missions. There is a critical need to design multimodal interfaces to optimize performance under these conditions for both training and actual operations. Because of the high level of complexity of the EVA environment on the one hand, and the “sensory restrictions” on the other, it makes sense to envisage enhancements to the astronauts’ visual environment. Such an enriched environment may include virtual auditory as well as tactile inputs.

multimodal displays↗
NASA NTRS1993

A monochromatic gravity wave observed by the Flatland Atmospheric Observatory

On 21 December 1991 from approximately 1300 to approximately 1600 UTC a monochromatic wave train with an 8.2-min period was observed by the suite of instruments at the Flatland Atmospheric Observatory (FAO), located in very flat terrain near Champaign-Urbana, Illinois. A 915-MHz radar measured the vertical wind velocity w every 60 s from 0.55 km MSL (0.34 km AGL) to approximately 3 km with 250-m range gates, and a 50-MHz radar measured the oblique wind in four directions, as well as w, every 130 s from 2.75 to approximately 7.25 km with 750-m range gates. A meteorological ground station measured the surface pressure P, wind speed vector u and azimuth alpha, temperature, solar insolation, etc., every 30 s. P was also measured every 120 s by six digital barograph stations within 30 km of Flatland. Using the hodograph of surface vector u and alpha and the impedance relation, we estimated the azimuthal direction of propagation phi to be 45 deg +/- 15 deg clockwise from north, the intrinsic and apparent horizontal phase speeds C(sub i) and C(sub o), respectively, (which are about equal since the direction of propagation is about normal to the mean wind) to be 21 +/- 5 m/s, and the horizontal wavelength lambda to be 10.0 +/- 2.5 km. The peak-to-peak surface horizontal perturbation velocity varied from approximately 2 to 5 m/s from cycle to cycle.

Vanzandt, T. E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Introducing Tropical Geometric Approaches to Delay Tolerant Networking Optimization

Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) is the standard approach to the networking of space systems with the goal of supporting the Solar System Internet (SSI). Current space networks have a small scale and often depend on rigorously scheduled (pre-determined) contact opportunities; this manual approach inhibits scalability. The goal of this paper is to recast these scheduling problems in order to apply the optimization machinery of tropical geometry. Contact opportunities in space are dependent on such factors as orbital mechanics and asset availability, which induce time-varying connectivity; indeed, end-to-end connectivity might never occur. Routing optimization within this structure is classically difficult and typically utilizes Dijkstra's algorithm as applied to contact graphs. Alternatively, we follow the successes of tropical geometry in train schedule optimization, job assignments, and even traditional networking, by extending this approach to this more general (i.e. disconnected) problem space. These successes imply tropical geometry provides a useful framework in the context of DTNs, starting with applications to queuing theory and long-haul links. Recently, tropical geometry has been applied to parametric path optimization on graphs with variable edge weights. In this work, we extend these advances to account for the problem of routing in a space network, and find that tropical geometry is well-suited to the challenges offered by this new setting, including contact schedules featuring probabilities. Our approach leverages the combinatorial nature of the problem to give feasible shortest path trees in the presence of variable channel conditions and latency, evolving topologies, and uncertainty inherent in space routing. We discuss our tropical approach to DTN for two Python implementations, a Verilog Tropical ALU implementation, tropical frameworks for other parametric graph problems, and solution stability. Lastly, a program for future work is included to illuminate the path ahead.

Delay Tolerant Networking↗
DOE OSTI2026

PowerAmerica (Final Technical Report)

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Manufacturing Office (predecessor to AMMTO) established PowerAmerica in December 2014 to develop and accelerate the adoption of wide bandgap (WBG) semiconductor chips and power electronics in manufacturing. The objective was to spark early commercialization of energy efficient products; educate and train the workforce; create high-tech jobs; and nurture the growth of the U.S. WBG semiconductor manufacturing industry. PowerAmerica isled by North Carolina State University by way of a five-year, $140M cooperative agreement with DoE. This private-public partnership with DoE includes member companies ranging from startups and small-medium enterprises to large system integrators, world-class universities, and national labs. The WBG power electronic ecosystem formed by our diverse membership is focused on using advanced manufacturing to 1) lower the cost of silicon carbide and gallium nitride semiconductor devices to be comparable to silicon devices; 2) demonstrate the system benefits and energy efficiency advantages of WBG semiconductor power electronics through system demonstrations that validate their effectiveness; and 3) build an education pipeline for a skilled workforce to meet the future demand for emerging WBG semiconductor markets — and enhance U.S. economic competitiveness globally. PowerAmerica was initially funded in six budget periods, each lasting 12 to 18 months. By the end of Budget Period 6 (August 2023), PowerAmerica had achieved its major objectives in technology development, semiconductor device cost reduction, ecosystem growth and engagement, and education and workforce development. Through strategic foundry investments, we helped to establish the first U.S. SiC foundry (X-FAB) and supported a lab (Microchip) to start SiC volume production. We’ve helped bring together companies from different parts of the supply chain, resulting in several successful new partnerships and business relationships. Through projects with some of the largest manufacturers of energy-intensive equipment in the U.S. — John Deere, GE, United Technologies, Raytheon, Carrier, Toshiba, and others — we have successfully demonstrated the energy and system benefits of WBG technology. We have also harnessed the unique capabilities and facilities of national labs — the Naval Research Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory — to help solve challenging technical problems for industry. Thanks to our many webinars, tutorials, annual events, and presence at major energy and electronics conferences around the world, the PowerAmerica name has become synonymous with WBG technology advancement. The commercial interest in WBG technology is higher than ever; companies and governments around the world have announced hundreds of millions of dollarsin future investment to build capacity — and compete with silicon in many markets and applications. We have trained hundreds of engineering students, from universities across the U.S., through hands-on projects and WBG coursework. Working professionals have also benefited through the years from our many targeted short courses, tutorials, and technical webinars. In short, PowerAmerica has made great strides in each of our key objectives, and the organization has been operating without government or NC State

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗