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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Bedrock Vadose Zone Storage Dynamics Under Extreme Drought: Consequences for Plant Water Availability, Recharge, and Runoff

Bedrock vadose zone water storage (i.e., rock moisture) dynamics are rarely observed but potentially key to understanding drought responses. Exploiting a borehole network at a Mediterranean blue oak savanna site—Rancho Venada—we document how water storage capacity in deeply weathered bedrock profiles regulates woody plant water availability and groundwater recharge. The site is in the Northern California Coast Range within steeply dipping turbidites. In a wet year (water year 2019; 647 mm of precipitation), rock moisture was quickly replenished to a characteristic storage capacity, recharging groundwater that emerged at springs to generate streamflow. In the subsequent rainless summer growing season, rock moisture was depleted by about 93 mm. In two drought years that followed (212 and 121 mm of precipitation) the total amount of rock moisture gained each winter was about 54 and 20 mm, respectively, and declines were documented exceeding these amounts, resulting in progressively lower rock moisture content. Oaks, which are rooted into bedrock, demonstrated signs of water stress in drought, including reduced transpiration rates and extremely low water potentials. In the 2020–2021 drought, precipitation did not exceed storage capacity, resulting in variable belowground water storage, increased plant water stress, and no recharge or runoff. Rock moisture deficits (rather than soil moisture deficits) explain these responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Annual cycle observations of aerosols capable of ice formation in central Arctic clouds

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, prompting glacial melt, permafrost thaw, and sea ice decline. These severe consequences induce feedbacks that contribute to amplified warming, affecting weather and climate globally. Aerosols and clouds play a critical role in regulating radiation reaching the Arctic surface. However, the magnitude of their effects is not adequately quantified, especially in the central Arctic where they impact the energy balance over the sea ice. Specifically, aerosols called ice nucleating particles (INPs) remain understudied yet are necessary for cloud ice production and subsequent changes in cloud lifetime, radiative effects, and precipitation. Here, we report observations of INPs in the central Arctic over a full year, spanning the entire sea ice growth and decline cycle. Further, these observations are size-resolved, affording valuable information on INP sources. Our results reveal a strong seasonality of INPs, with lower concentrations in the winter and spring controlled by transport from lower latitudes, to enhanced concentrations of INPs during the summer melt, likely from marine biological production in local open waters. This comprehensive characterization of INPs will ultimately help inform cloud parameterizations in models of all scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

High temporal resolution estimates of Arctic snowfall rates emphasizing gauge and radar-based retrievals from the MOSAiC expedition

This article presents the results of snowfall rate and accumulation estimates from a vertically pointing 35-GHz radar and other sensors deployed during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. The radar-based retrievals are the most consistent in terms of data availability and are largely immune to blowing snow. The total liquid-equivalent accumulation during the snow accumulation season is around 110 mm, with more abundant precipitation during spring months. About half of the total accumulation came from weak snowfall with rates less than approximately 0.2 mmh–1. The total snowfall estimates from a Vaisala optical sensor aboard the icebreaker are similar to those from radar retrievals, though their daily and monthly accumulations and instantaneous rates varied significantly. Compared to radar retrievals and the icebreaker optical sensor data, measurements from an identical optical sensor at an ice camp are biased high. Blowing snow effects, in part, explain differences. Weighing gauge measurements significantly overestimate snowfall during February–April 2020 as compared to other sensors and are not well suited for estimating instantaneous snowfall rates. The icebreaker optical disdrometer estimates of snowfall rates are, on average, relatively little biased compared to radar retrievals when raw particle counts are available and appropriate snowflake mass-size relations are used. These counts, however, are not available during periods that produced more than a third of the total snowfall. While there are uncertainties in the radar-based retrievals due to the choice of reflectivity-snowfall rate relations, the major error contributor is the uncertainty in the radar absolute calibration. The MOSAiC radar calibration is evaluated using comparisons with other radars and liquid water cloud–drizzle processes observed during summer. Overall, this study describes a consistent, radar-based snowfall rate product for MOSAiC that provides significant insight into Central Arctic snowfall and can be used for many other purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bioaerosol Properties using WIBS from SAIL on Mt. Crested Butte, CO

We deployed a Wideband Integrated Bioaerosol Sensor (WIBS-Neo, DMT) to measure different properties of fluorescent bioaerosol particles (FBAP) during SAIL. Our measurements were collected at the supplementary site on Crested Butte Mountain from inside the ARM Aerosol Observing System (AOS) sampling from the AOS inlet. We had two deployment periods at SAIL during biologically active seasons: summer 2022 (15 June 2022 - 13 September 2022) and spring 2023 (21 March 2023 - 19 June 2023). The WIBS is an online single-particle measurement that detects FBAPs (within a size range of 0.5 - 30 microns in diameter) based on the excitation and emission wavelengths of the individual particles. Using two xenon lamps, the WIBS excites FBAPs at 280 nm and 370 nm. Their emission is detected across two wavebands of 310-400 nm and 420-650 nm. We classified the FBAPs into seven different categories (A, B, C, AB, BC, AC, and ABC) using the classification scheme in Perring et. al. (2015) [1]. Here, we report one-minute averaged number concentration of FBAPs (total and by category) and NFBAPs. We also present one-minute-averaged size distributions and the asymmetry factor (AF, a surrogate for shape) of all FBAPs and NFBAPs. The logarithmic bin width of the size bins is the same as the average bin width of the AOS's optical particle counter (OPC, Grimm) for the range of sizes in which they overlap (26 bins from 0.5 - 30 microns). AF of the particles ranges from 0-100 and is divided into five bins with a linear spacing at increments of 20. The smallest AF bin represents more spherical particles while the largest bin represents more rod-shaped particles. We recommend referring to the readme file for more details of the variables present in the files. [1] Perring, A. E., et al. (2015), Airborne observations of regional variation in fluorescent aerosol across the United States, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 1153-1170, doi:10.1002/2014JD022495. Abstract and description of the campaign can be found here: https://www.arm.gov/research/cam

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Band-pass filtering of one year of daily mean pressures on Mars

The sol-mean atmospheric pressures measured at the two Viking landers exhibit fluctuations ranging in period from seasonal to a few days. The time series are highly nonstationary, which severely limits standard methods such as power-spectrum analysis. Advantage is taken of the rather precise annual periodicity of these data to design sharp numerical filters and use them to split the series at each lander into six time series, each containing oscillations associated with a discrete frequency band. This analysis reveals 2- to 4-sol waves during the cold seasons at both landers, and 8-sol waves during the spring at Lander 2, confirming previous results from spectral analysis. As previously predicted, high-frequency waves appear suppressed during the second dust storm. Certain low-frequency signals, probably associated with the global dust storms, are detected and demonstrated to be significant for the first time.

Niver, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Lower thermosphere wind regime according to radiometeor measurements in Kazan

Research in dynamic processes in the lower thermosphere has been carried out in Kazan using the meteor radar facilities of the Kazan State University under the MAP-GLOBMET international program. Presented is experimental data on seasonal dependences of the wind for anomalous winter circulation periods, spring and autumn reconstructions and stable summer circulation from observations conducted in 1978 to 1984. Prevailing wind parameters are shown: zonal and meridional component amplitudes and A sub 0 and azimuth of the prevailing wind vector. The values are also presented for semidiurnal zonal and meridional tidal components, their correlation coefficient and zonal component amplitude maximum time.

Sidorov, V. V.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Theoretical study of polar and global ozone changes using a coupled radiative-dynamical 2-D model

An existing 2-D model has recently been updated to incorporate ozone-temperature feedbacks with more comprehensive radiative transfer calculations and more detailed temperature data input. Researchers address the following issues: (1) given the observed temperature changes for the past eight years, quantitatively how much ozone change can be produced by the dynamical effect of the temperature change over the Arctic and Antarctic; (2) how much of the reported change in globally averaged ozone can be accounted for by temperature changes; (3) the role of the diabatic circulation changes in the lower stratosphere in determining the timing of the polar spring maximum and minimum; and (4) the role of the seasonal change in the diabatic circulation in causing the fall minimum over the Arctic and Antarctic.

Yang, H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Structural and stratigraphic features and ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar backscatter characteristics of ice growing on shallow lakes in NW Alaska, winter 1991-1992

Changes in Earth Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS) 1 C band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter intensity (sigma(exp 0)) from ice growing on shallow tundra lakes at three locations in NW Alaska are described. Ice core analysis shows that all lakes on the coast at Barrow the ice, whether floating or frozen to the bottom, includes an inclusion-free layer overlying a layer of ice with tubular bubbles oriented parallel to the direction of growth. The clear ice may also be overlain by a discontinuous layer of bubbly snow ice. Backscatter is low (-16 to -22 dB) at the time of initial ice formation, probably due to the specular nature of the upper and lower ice surfaces causing the radar pulse to be reflected away from the radar. As the ice thickens during the autumn, backscatter rises steadily. Once the ice freezes to the lake bottom, regardless of the presence of foward scattering tubular bubbles, low backscatter values of -17 to -18 dB are caused by absorption of the radar signal in the lake bed. For ice that remains afloat all winter the ice-water interface and the tubular bubbles combine, presumably via an incoherent double-bounce mechanism, to cause maximum backscatter values of the order of -6 to -7 dB. The sigma(exp 0) saturates at -6 to -7 dB before maximum ice thickness and tubular bubble content are attained. A simple ice growth model suggests that the layer of ice with tubular bubbles need be only a few centimeters thick midway through the growth season to cause maximum backscatter from floating ice. During the spring thaw a previously unreported backscatter reversal is observed on the floating and grounded portions of the coastal lakes but not on the lakes farther inland. This reversal may be related to the ice surface topography and wetness plus the effects of a longer, cooler melt period by the coast. Time series of backscatter variations from shallow tundra lakes are a record of (1) the development of tubular bubbles in the ice and, by association, changes in the gas content of the underlying water and (2) the freezing of ice to the bottoms of the lakes and therefore lake bathymetry and water availability. SAR is also able to detect the onset of lake ice growth in autumn and the initiation of the spring thaw and thus has potential for monitoring high-altitude lake ice growth and decay processes in relation to climate variability.

Jeffries, M. O.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) Generated by Corotating Interaction Regions

Seventy-nine major geomagnetic storms (minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) observed in 1996 to 2004 were the focus of a Living with a Star Coordinated Data-Analysis Workshop (CDAW) in March, 2005. In 9 cases, the storm driver appears to have been purely a corotating interaction region (CIR) without any contribution from coronal mass ejection-related material (interplanetary coronal mass ejections, ICMEs). These storms were generated by structures within CIRs located both before and/or after the stream interface that included persistently southward magnetic fields for intervals of several hours. We compare their geomagnetic effects with those of 159 CIRs observed during 1996 - 2005. The major storms form the extreme tail of a continuous distribution of CIR geoeffectiveness which peaks at Dst approx. -40 nT but is subject to a prominent seasonal variation of - 40 nT which is ordered by the spring and fall equinoxes and the solar wind magnetic field direction towards or away from the Sun. The O'Brien and McPherron [2000] equations, which estimate Dst by integrating the incident solar wind electric field and incorporating a ring current loss term, largely account for the variation in storm size. They tend to underestimate the size of the larger CIR-associated storms by Dst approx. 20 nT. This suggests that injection into the ring current may be more efficient than expected in such storms. Four of the nine major storms in 1996 - 2004 occurred during a period of less than three solar rotations in September - November, 2002, also the time of maximum mean IMF and solar magnetic field intensity during the current solar cycle. The maximum CIR-storm strength found in our sample of events, plus additional 23 probable CIR-associated Dst less than or equal to -100 nT storms in 1972 - 1995, is (Dst = -161 nT). This is consistent with the maximum storm strength (Dst approx. -180 nT) expected from the O'Brien and McPherron equations for the typical range of solar wind electric fields associated with CIRs. This suggests that CIRs alone are unlikely to generate geomagnetic storms that exceed these levels.

Richardson, I. G.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are computed versus the previous 1, previous 3, and all previous years in the MODIS record for a given 24 day interval. Other "weekly" forest change products include one computed using an adaptive length compositing method for quicker detection of disturbances, two others that adjust for seasonal fluctuations in normal vegetation phenology (e.g., early versus late springs). This overall approach enables forest disturbance dynamics from a variety of regionally evident biotic and abiotic forest disturbances to be viewed and assessed through the calendar year. The change products are also being utilized for forest change trend analysis and for developing regional forest overstory mortality products. ForWarn's forest change products are used to alert forest health specialists about new forest disturbances. Such alerts are also typically based on available Landsat, aerial, and ground data as well as communications with forest health specialists and previous experience. ForWarn products have been used to detect and track many types of regional disturbances to multiple forest types, including defoliation from caterpillars and severe storms, as well as mortality from both biotic and abiotic agents (e.g., bark beetles, drought, fire, anthropogenic clearing). ForWarn offers products that could be combined with other geospatial data on forest biomass to assess forest disturbance carbon impacts within the conterminous US.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate Drivers of Arctic Tundra Variability and Change Using an Indicators Framework

This study applies an indicators framework to investigate climate drivers of tundra vegetation trends and variability over the 1982–2019 period. Previously known indicators relevant for tundra productivity (summer warmth index (SWI), coastal spring sea-ice (SI) area, coastal summer open-water (OW)) and three additional indicators (continentality, summer precipitation, and the Arctic Dipole (AD): second mode of sea level pressure variability) are analyzed with maximum annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MaxNDVI) and the sum of summer bi-weekly (time-integrated) NDVI (TI-NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer time-series. Climatological mean, trends, and correlations between variables are presented. Changes in SI continue to drive variations in the other indicators. As spring SI has decreased, summer OW, summer warmth, MaxNDVI, and TI-NDVI have increased. However, the initial very strong upward trends in previous studies for MaxNDVI and TI-NDVI are weakening and becoming spatially and temporally more variable as the ice retreats from the coastal areas. TI-NDVI has declined over the last decade particularly over High Arctic regions and southwest Alaska. The continentality index (CI) (maximum minus minimum monthly temperatures) is decreasing across the tundra, more so over North America than Eurasia. The relationship has weakened between SI and SWI and TI-NDVI, as the maritime influence of OW has increased along with total precipitation. The winter AD is correlated in Eurasia with spring SI, summer OW, MaxNDVI, TI-NDVI, the CI and total summer precipitation. This winter connection to tundra emphasizes the role of SI in driving the summer indicators. The winter (DJF) AD drives SI variations which in turn shape summer OW, the atmospheric SWI and NDVI anomalies. The winter and spring indicators represent potential predictors of tundra vegetation productivity a season or two in advance of the growing season.

Uma S. Bhatt↗
NASA NTRS2021

Interrelationships of Sea Surface Salinity, Chlorophyll-α Concentration, and Sea Surface Temperature near the Antarctic Ice Edge

Satellite data can now provide a coherent picture of sea surface salinity (SSS), chlorophyll-α concentration (Chlα), sea surface temperature (SST), and sea ice cover across the Southern Ocean. The availability of these data at the basin scale enables novel insight into the physical and biological processes in an area that has historically been difficult to gather in situ data from. The analysis shows large regional and interannual variability of these parameters but also strong coherence across the Southern Ocean. The covariability of the parameters near the marginal ice zone shows a generally negative relationship between SSS and Chlα (r = −0.87). This may in part be attributed to the large seasonality of the variables, but analysis of data within the spring period (from November to December) shows similarly high correlation (r = −0.81). This is the first time that a large-scale robust connection between low salinity and high phytoplankton concentration during ice melt period has been quantified. Chlorophyll-α concentration is also well correlated with SST (r = 0.79) providing a potential indicator of the strength of the temperature limitation on primary productivity in the region. The observed correlation also varied regionally due to differences in ice melt patterns during spring and summer. Overall, this study provides new insights into the physical characteristics of the Southern Ocean as observed from space. In a continually warming and freshening Southern Ocean, the relationships observed here provide a key data source for testing ocean biogeochemical models and assessing the effect of sea ice–ocean processes on primary production.

Cynthia Garcia-Eidell↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying long-term seasonal and regional impacts of North American fire activity on continental boundary layer aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei

An intimate knowledge of aerosol transport is essential in reducing the uncertainty of the impacts of aerosols on cloud development. Datasets from the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement platform in the Southern Great Plains region (ARM-SGP) and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) showed seasonal increases in aerosol loading and total carbon concentration during the spring and summer months (2008-2016) which was attributed to fire activity and smoke transport within North America. The monthly mean MERRA-2 surface carbonaceous aerosol mass concentration and ARM-SGP total carbon products were strongly correlated (R=0.82, p<0.01) along with a moderate correlation with the ARM-SGP cloud condensation nuclei (N CCN ) product (0.5, p~0.1). The monthly mean ARM-SGP total carbon and N CCN products were strongly correlated (0.7, p~0.01). An additional product denoting fire number and coverage taken from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) showed a moderate correlation with the MERRA-2 carbonaceous product (0.45, p<0.01) during the 1981-2016 warm season months (March-September). With respect to meteorological conditions, the correlation between the NIFC fire product and MERRA-2 850 hPa isobaric height anomalies was lower (0.26, p~0.13) due to the variability in the frequency, intensity, and number of fires in North America. An observed increase in the isobaric height anomaly during the past decade may lead to frequent synoptic ridging and drier conditions with more fires, thereby potentially impacting cloud/precipitation processes and decreasing air quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Climatology of Midlatitude Continental Clouds from the ARM SGP Site: Low-Level Cloud Macrophysical, Microphysical, and Radiative Properties - Part I

A record of single-layer and overcast low cloud (stratus) properties has been generated using approximately 4000 hours of data collected from January 1997 to December 2002 at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains Central Facility (SCF). The cloud properties include liquid-phase and liquid-dominant, mixed-phase, low cloud macrophysical, microphysical, and radiative properties including cloud-base and -top heights and temperatures, and cloud physical thickness derived from a ground-based radar and lidar pair, and rawinsonde sounding; cloud liquid water path (LWP) and content (LWC), and cloud-droplet effective radius (r(sub e)) and number concentration (N) derived from the macrophysical properties and radiometer data; and cloud optical depth (tau), effective solar transmission (gamma), and cloud/top-of-atmosphere albedos (R(sub cldy)/R(sub TOA)) derived from Eppley precision spectral pyranometer measurements. The cloud properties were analyzed in terms of their seasonal, monthly, and hourly variations. In general, more stratus clouds occur during winter and spring than in summer. Cloud-layer altitudes and physical thicknesses were higher and greater in summer than in winter with averaged physical thicknesses of 0.85 km and 0.73 km for day and night, respectively. The seasonal variations of LWP, LWC, N. tau, R(sub cldy), and R(sub TOA) basically follow the same pattern with maxima and minima during winter and summer, respectively. There is no significant variation in mean r(sub e), however, despite a summertime peak in aerosol loading, Although a considerable degree of variability exists, the 6-yr average values of LWP, LWC, r(sub e), N, tau, gamma, R(sub cldy) and R(sub TOA) are 150 gm(exp -2) (138), 0.245 gm(exp -3) (0.268), 8.7 micrometers (8.5), 213 cm(exp -3) (238), 26.8 (24.8), 0.331, 0.672, 0.563 for daytime (nighttime). A new conceptual model of midlatitude continental low clouds at the ARM SGP site has been developed from this study. The low stratus cloud amount monotonically increases from midnight to early morning (0930 LT), and remains large until around local noon, then declines until 1930 LT when it levels off for the remainder of the night. In the morning, the stratus cloud layer is low, warm, and thick with less LWC, while in the afternoon it is high, cold, and thin with more LWC. Future parts of this series will consider other cloud types and cloud radiative forcing at the ARM SCF.

Dong, Xiquan↗
NASA NTRS2011

Seasonal Variations of Stratospheric Age Spectra in GEOSCCM

There are many pathways for an air parcel to travel from the troposphere to the stratosphere, each of which takes different time. The distribution of all the possible transient times, i.e. the stratospheric age spectrum, contains important information on transport characteristics. However, it is computationally very expensive to compute seasonally varying age spectra, and previous studies have focused mainly on the annual mean properties of the age spectra. To date our knowledge of the seasonality of the stratospheric age spectra is very limited. In this study we investigate the seasonal variations of the stratospheric age spectra in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We introduce a method to significantly reduce the computational cost for calculating seasonally dependent age spectra. Our simulations show that stratospheric age spectra in GEOSCCM have strong seasonal cycles and the seasonal cycles change with latitude and height. In the lower stratosphere extratropics, the average transit times and the most probable transit times in the winter/early spring spectra are more than twice as old as those in the summer/early fall spectra. But the seasonal cycle in the subtropical lower stratosphere is nearly out of phase with that in the extratropics. In the middle and upper stratosphere, significant seasonal variations occur in the sUbtropics. The spectral shapes also show dramatic seasonal change, especially at high latitudes. These seasonal variations reflect the seasonal evolution of the slow Brewer-Dobson circulation (with timescale of years) and the fast isentropic mixing (with timescale of days to months).

Li, Feng↗
NASA NTRS1998

Northern and Southern Hemisphere Ground-Based Infrared Spectroscopic Measurements of Tropospheric Carbon Monoxide and Ethane

Time series of CO and C2H6 measurements have been derived from high resolution infrared solar spectra recorded in Lauder, New Zealand (45.0 deg S, 169.7 deg E, altitude 0.37 km) and at the U. S. National Solar Observatory (31.90 deg N, 111.6 deg W, altitude 2.09 km) on Kitt Peak. Lauder observations were obtained between July 1993 and November 1997 while the Kitt Peak measurements were recorded between May 1977 and December 1997. Both databases were analyzed with spectroscopic parameters that included significant improvements for C2H6 relative to previous studies. Target CO and C2H6 lines were selected to achieve similar vertical samplings based on averaging kernels. These calculations show that partial columns from layers extending from the surface to the mean tropopause and from the mean tropopause to 100 km are nearly independent. Retrievals based on a semiempirical application of the Rodgers optimal estimation technique are reported for the lower layer, which has a broad maximum in sensitivity in the upper troposphere. The Lauder CO and C2H6 partial columns exhibit highly asymmetrical seasonal cycles with minima in austral autumn and sharp peaks in austral spring. The spring maxima are the result of tropical biomass burning emissions followed by deep convective vertical transport to the upper troposphere and long-range horizontal transport. Significant year-to-year variations are observed for both CO and C2H6, but the measured trends, (+0.37 +/- 0.57)%/ yr and (-0.64 +/- 0.79)%/ yr, 1 sigma, respectively, indicate no significant long-term changes. The Kitt Peak data also exhibit CO and C2H6 seasonal variations in the lower layer with trends equal to (-0.27 +/- 0.17)%/ yr and (-1.20 +/- 0.35)%/ yr, 1 sigma, respectively. Hence, a decrease in the Kitt Peak tropospheric C2H6 column has been detected, though the CO trend is not significant. Both measurement sets are compared with previous observations, reported trends, and three-dimensional model calculations.

Rinsland, Curtis P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase transition of the equatorial zonal current from westerly to easterly.

GMAO↗