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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Automatic Review of Abstract State Machines by Meta Property Verification

A model review is a validation technique aimed at determining if a model is of sufficient quality and allows defects to be identified early in the system development, reducing the cost of fixing them. In this paper we propose a technique to perform automatic review of Abstract State Machine (ASM) formal specifications. We first detect a family of typical vulnerabilities and defects a developer can introduce during the modeling activity using the ASMs and we express such faults as the violation of meta-properties that guarantee certain quality attributes of the specification. These meta-properties are then mapped to temporal logic formulas and model checked for their violation. As a proof of concept, we also report the result of applying this ASM review process to several specifications.

Arcaini, Paolo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Machine Learning to Predict Future Temperature Outputs in Geothermal Systems

Optimizing the power output, and economic value, of geothermal power plants over decades of operation is a major challenge in renewable energy. Optimizing the output requires the ability to predict the mass flow rates and the output temperatures of production wells based on the inputs of injection wells, as well as the time history of the system. Machine Learning (ML) that incorporates the known physics of geothermal systems is one possible solution to this challenge. In this work, we explore the ability of ML algorithms to predict future temperature outputs based on historical data. Considering the challenges with obtaining an empirical dataset from field data that is large enough to enable reliable ML, we propose an alternate approach: developing a high-fidelity reservoir model and using computational resources to build a dataset that enables ML. As a first step towards achieving this goal, we present preliminary results from applying ML to predict the temperature timeseries of simple modeled geothermal systems. We describe the application of relevant state-of-the-art ML approaches, such as the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), to extract temporal structures in the model data. We assess the accuracy of the forecasts we obtain, compare the selected approaches, and share the lessons learned that would inform the process of training and utilizing ML algorithms for larger and more complex geothermal systems.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distribution Development for the RDX Regional Model at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20385

Representing uncertainty in model inputs often means finding a balance between uncertainty and physical reality. Developing wide distributions may seem conservative in principle, but this approach may lead to unrealistic model results. Characterizing the current state of knowledge of stochastic inputs presents many challenges, especially if the data available are limited or have limited relevance to the site. Relationships among these inputs may also be important to represent but are typically complex or difficult to define. Often special adjustments must be made to account for reduced credibility in particular data. If parameters are strongly related to one another, a correlation structure may be developed for input to the model. Other techniques such as regression models may be used to incorporate relationships between the information available and the desired parameters. The process of developing distributions must consider details of the model in terms of what the distribution is meant to represent. This paper uses the example of a probabilistic fate and transport model for hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) in the regional aquifer at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). For many parameters, a single draw is applied to all space and time over which the model is run, for a single iteration. This simplification is often made for many reasons, and can often be beneficial, but also adds additional complexity in the distribution development process. Defining the distributional goals as they relate to the modeling process is an important step, which should take place prior to evaluation of the data. Usually, the distributions developed are meant to characterize the average value of the parameter over the spatial and temporal domain of the model. Distribution development requires consideration of many sources of information on the parameter where available, ideally from multiple references. Examples of different sources include data from different references but also from different conditions, measurement methods, or experimental types. Depending on these conditions and the reliability or relevance of particular references, different sources of data may each contribute valuable information but have varying relevance to the site. In these cases, weighting data unequally is a useful way to incorporate this information. As an example, aqueous dispersivity data are available for a variety of rock types. Only a few values are available for the desired rock type, and this is not enough to develop a distribution. Therefore, dispersivity values from other rock types are included in distribution development but are down-weighted such that the best data have the most influence on the distribution developed. In another case, K{sub d} distributions in the model are meant to represent a known composition of multiple soil types. Data from these materials are weighted accordingly to develop a distribution for the weighted average K{sub d} across soil types. Other cases include varying reliability of different sources, and weighting data according to the confidence in these sources. In some cases, input parameters are correlated with one another. An example is advective porosity, which is positively correlated with total porosity and must be less than total porosity. Paired data with both parameters must exist to discern the relationship between the two parameters and if it is necessary to build a correlation structure into the model. In general, correlated parameters may be represented in the model by a multivariate distribution, or perhaps more desirably, capturing the correlation within the developed distributions which may be treated as independent from one another. In the example of porosity, this can be done by transforming advective porosity into a proportion of total porosity which may be drawn independently from the distribution of total porosity. This paper explores how complex data and correlations can be incorporated to meet the distributional goals of the model, using the RDX regional model as a detailed example. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2004

Long-Lag, Wide-pulse Gamma-Ray Bursts

Currently, the best available probe of the early phase of gamma-ray burst (GRB) jet attributes is the prompt gamma-ray emission, in which several intrinsic and extrinsic variables determine GRB pulse evolution. Bright, usually complex bursts have many narrow pulses that are difficult to model due to overlap. However, the relatively simple, long spectral lag, wide-pulse bursts may have simpler physics and are easier to model. In this work we analyze the temporal and spectral behavior of wide pulses in 24 long-lag bursts, using a pulse model with two shape parameters - width and asymmetry - and the Band spectral model with three shape parameters. We find that pulses in long-lag bursts are distinguished both temporally and spectrally from those in bright bursts: the pulses in long spectral lag bursts are few in number, and approximately 100 times wider (10s of seconds), have systematically lower peaks in vF(v), harder low-energy spectra and softer high-energy spectra. We find that these five pulse descriptors are essentially uncorrelated for our long-lag sample, suggesting that at least approximately 5 parameters are needed to model burst temporal and spectral behavior. However, pulse width is strongly correlated with spectral lag; hence these two parameters may be viewed as mutual surrogates. We infer that accurate formulations for estimating GRB luminosity and total energy will depend on several gamma-ray attributes, at least for long-lag bursts. The prevalence of long-lag bursts near the BATSE trigger threshold, their predominantly low vF(v) spectral peaks, and relatively steep upper power-law spectral indices indicate that Swift will detect many such bursts.

Norris, J. P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

High fidelity simulations of contaminant dispersion in an urban environment with comparison to magnetic resonance imaging measurements

The dispersion of a contaminant in an urban environment has the potential to impact a large population of people. In this work, a complex urban canopy flow based on the Oklahoma City downtown business district circa 2003 is studied using Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and high-fidelity Large Eddy Simulations (LES). MRI is a novel experimental technique that can provide high-resolution measurements in four dimensions (three spatial and temporal) for lab scale models. The experiments and simulations use the same geometry and boundary conditions providing a one-to-one comparison of the two methods. Results are presented on the time-averaged velocity and concentration fields, the temporal dynamics of the concentration plumes for a transient release, and a novel Cloud Identification Algorithm that can separate plumes produced by periodic contaminant releases used for ensemble averaging over many releases. The MRI and LES datasets both include millions of measurement voxels and the comparisons highlight the complex 3D nature of the flow including strong vertical velocities in spanwise street canyons and flow acceleration in streamwise street canyons. The concentration fields are qualitatively similar albeit the LES shows larger dispersion. A quantitative analysis with performance measures compares the datasets pointwise and demonstrates that the two 3D datasets are similar with respect to many measures including a fractional bias of 0.02 (ideal=0.0), correlation coefficient of 0.87 (ideal = 1.0), and the fraction points within a factor of 2 is 0.98 (ideal = 1.0). Plume analysis compares the arrival and residence time of contaminant and is found to vary significantly with location within the urban environment with arrival times between 0 and 1.25 and differences within the contaminant cloud less than 10% at most locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatially resolved polarization swings in the supermassive binary black hole candidate OJ 287 with first Event Horizon Telescope observations

We present the first Event Horizon Telescope 1.3 mm observations of the supermassive binary black hole candidate OJ 287. The observations achieved an unprecedented angular resolution of 18 μas and reveal significant structural and polarization variability over just five days, marking the shortest timescale on which such changes have been directly imaged in this source. The inner jet exhibits a twisted ridgeline structure, with features displaying apparent superluminal motions up to about 22 c. The linear polarization maps reveal three main polarized features whose electric-vector position angles (EVPAs) change substantially over the time span of our observations, including a component with a radial polarization consistent with being produced by a recollimation shock. Most notably, we directly resolved two innermost jet components whose EVPAs rotate in opposite directions. The faster component, moving at 2.4 ± 0.9 μas/day (17.4 ± 6.5 c), exhibits counterclockwise EVPA swings of roughly 3.7° per day, while the slower component, with a proper motion of 1.4 ± 0.3 μas/day (10.2 ± 2.2 c), rotates clockwise at approximately 2.5° per day. Previous studies inferred helical magnetic fields in AGN jets from time-resolved or integrated polarization variability but lacked the angular resolution to directly image this effect. Our results provide spatially resolved evidence that a helical magnetic field threads the jet’s collimation and acceleration zone, ruling out models based on the superposition of unresolved components. Our analysis suggests that propagating shocks interact with a Kelvin–Helmholtz plasma instability, illuminating different phases of the helical magnetic field and producing the observed polarization spatial and temporal variability. Moreover, our model naturally accounts for the more rapid polarization rotation observed in the faster moving component. Our model predicts even more rapid swings in polarization, which could be tested with future observations featuring a more densely sampled time coverage.

OJ 287↗
NASA NTRS2004

Software for Checking Statecharts

HiVy is a software tool set that enables verification through model checking of designs represented as finite-state machines or statecharts. HiVy provides automated translation of (1) statecharts created by use of the MathWorks Stateflow program to (2) Promela, the input language of the Spin model checker, which can then be used to verify, or trace logical errors in, distributed software systems. HiVy can operate directly on Stateflow models, or its abstract syntax of hierarchical sequential automata (HSA) can be used independently as an intermediate format for translation to Promela. In a typical design application, HiVy parses and reformats Stateflow model file data using the programs SfParse and sf2hsa, respectively. If the parsing effort is successful, an abstract syntax tree is delivered into a file named with the extension .hsa. If the design comprises several model files, they may be merged into one .hsa file before translation into Promela. Stateflow scope is preserved, and name clashes are avoided in the merge process. The HiVy program hsa2pr translates the model from the intermediate HSA format into Promela. Additionally, HiVy provides through translation a list of all statechart model propositions that are the means for formalizing linear temporal logic (LTL) properties about the model for Spin verification.

Pingree, Paula↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian modeling framework for crash severity effects of active traffic management systems

Transportation agencies utilize Active traffic management (ATM) systems to dynamically manage recurrent and non-recurrent congestion based on real-time conditions. While these systems have been shown to have some safety benefits, their impact on injury severity outcomes is currently uncertain. In this paper, we used full Bayesian mixed logit models to quantify the impact that ATM deployment had on crash severities. The estimation results revealed lower severities with ATM deployment. Marginal effects for ATM deployments that featured hard shoulder running (HSR) revealed lower likelihoods for severe and moderate injury crashes of 15.9 % and for minor injury crashes of 10.1 %. The likelihood of severe and moderate injury crashes and minor injury crashes reduced by 12.4 % and 8.33 % with ATM without HSR. The models were observed to be temporally transferable and had forecast error of 0.301 and 0.304 for the two models, revealing better performance with validation data. These results have implications for improving freeway crash risk at critical locations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal modeling of three lakes within the continuous permafrost zone in Alaska using the LAKE 2.0 model

Abstract. Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat with much lower albedo in summer and greater absorption of solar radiation than surrounding tundra vegetation. In the winter, lakes that do not freeze to their bed have a mean annual bed temperature >0 ∘C in an otherwise frozen landscape. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to accelerate thawing of underlying permafrost due to warming water temperatures in the summer and winter. Previous studies of Arctic lakes have focused on ice cover and thickness, the ice decay process, catchment hydrology, lake water balance, and eddy covariance measurements, but little work has been done in the Arctic to model lake heat balance. We applied the LAKE 2.0 model to simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in northern Alaska over several years and tested the sensitivity of the model to several perturbations of input meteorological variables (precipitation, shortwave radiation, and air temperature) and several model parameters (water vertical resolution, sediment vertical resolution, depth of soil column, and temporal resolution). The LAKE 2.0 model is a one-dimensional model that explicitly solves vertical profiles of water state variables on a grid. We used a combination of meteorological data from local and remote weather stations, as well as data derived from remote sensing, to drive the model. We validated modeled water temperatures with data of observed lake water temperatures at several depths over several years for each lake. Our validation of the LAKE 2.0 model is a necessary step toward modeling changes in Arctic lake ice regimes, lake heat balance, and thermal interactions with permafrost. The sensitivity analysis shows us that lake water temperature is not highly sensitive to small changes in air temperature or precipitation, while changes in shortwave radiation and large changes in precipitation produced larger effects. Snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season, which dominates the annual thermal regime of Arctic lakes. These findings suggest that reductions in lake ice thickness and duration could lead to more heat storage by lakes and enhanced permafrost degradation.

Clark, Jason A. (ORCID:0000000248105261)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiresolution GPC-Structured Control of a Single-Loop Cold-Flow Chemical Looping Testbed

Chemical looping is a near-zero emission process for generating power from coal. It is based on a multi-phase gas-solid flow and has extremely challenging nonlinear, multi-scale dynamics with jumps, producing large dynamic model uncertainty, which renders traditional robust control techniques, such as linear parameter varying H ∞ design, largely inapplicable. This process complexity is addressed in the present work through the temporal and the spatiotemporal multiresolution modeling along with the corresponding model-based control laws. Namely, the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input model structure, nonlinear in the wavelet basis, but linear in parameters, is used to identify the dominant temporal chemical looping process dynamics. The control inputs and the wavelet model parameters are calculated by optimizing a quadratic cost function using a gradient descent method. The respective identification and tracking error convergence of the proposed self-tuning identification and control schemes, the latter using the unconstrained generalized predictive control structure, is separately ascertained through the Lyapunov stability theorem. The rate constraint on the control signal in the temporal control law is then imposed and the control topology is augmented by an additional control loop with self-tuning deadbeat controller which uses the spatiotemporal wavelet riser dynamics representation. The novelty of this work is three-fold: (1) developing the self-tuning controller design methodology that consists in embedding the real-time tunable temporal highly nonlinear, but linearly parametrizable, multiresolution system representations into the classical rate-constrained generalized predictive quadratic optimal control structure, (2) augmenting the temporal multiresolution loop by a more complex spatiotemporal multiresolution self-tuning deadbeat control loop, and (3) demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in producing fast recursive real-time algorithms for controlling highly uncertain nonlinear multiscale processes. The latter is shown through the data from the implemented temporal and augmented spatiotemporal solutions of a difficult chemical looping cold flow tracking control problem.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed latent neural operator for real-time predictions of time-dependent parametric PDEs

Deep operator network (DeepONet) has shown significant promise as surrogate models for systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs), enabling accurate mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces. However, when applied to systems with high-dimensional input-output mappings arising from large numbers of spatial and temporal collocation points, these models often require heavily overparameterized networks, leading to long training times. Latent DeepONet addresses some of these challenges by introducing a two-step approach: first learning a reduced latent space using a separate model, followed by operator learning within this latent space. While efficient, this method is inherently data-driven and lacks mechanisms for incorporating physical laws, limiting its robustness and generalizability in data-scarce settings. Here, in this work, we propose PI-Latent-NO, a physics-informed latent neural operator framework that integrates governing physics directly into the learning process. Our architecture features two coupled DeepONets trained end-to-end: a Latent-DeepONet that learns a low-dimensional representation of the solution, and a Reconstruction-DeepONet that maps this latent representation back to the physical space. By embedding PDE constraints into the training via automatic differentiation, our method eliminates the need for labeled training data and ensures physics-consistent predictions. The proposed framework is both memory and compute-efficient, exhibiting near-constant scaling with problem size and demonstrating significant speedups over traditional physics-informed operator models. We validate our approach on a range of parametric PDEs, showcasing its accuracy, scalability, and suitability for real-time prediction in complex physical systems.

Latent representations↗
DOE OSTI2021

Release a public version of HERON (HERON 2.0) with improved algorithms for the treatment of energy storage

Integrated energy systems (IESs) are essential for decarbonizing electricity and industrial sectors and fully exploiting these systems requires sophisticated planning, scheduling, and dispatching tools to maximize their socio-economic benefits. The Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) is a generic software plugin for the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) to perform stochastic technoeconomic analysis of IES with economic drivers. This report summarizes the updates made to HERON 2.0. Particularly, we demonstrate one of the added features, Function-based Control Mechanics, by comparing a price-based dispatch strategy with the original perfect foresight baselines. Our case studies successfully demonstrate that the model is capable to incorporate artificial control algorithm into the dispatch of IES components. In addition, our results from the price-based strategy indicate that the control strategies of IES components are key to the economic and temporal performance of our model; therefore, more sophisticated dispatch strategies are required to improve the model performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating multi-modal remote sensing, deep learning, and attention mechanisms for yield prediction in plant breeding experiments

In both plant breeding and crop management, interpretability plays a crucial role in instilling trust in AI-driven approaches and enabling the provision of actionable insights. The primary objective of this research is to explore and evaluate the potential contributions of deep learning network architectures that employ stacked LSTM for end-of-season maize grain yield prediction. A secondary aim is to expand the capabilities of these networks by adapting them to better accommodate and leverage the multi-modality properties of remote sensing data. In this study, a multi-modal deep learning architecture that assimilates inputs from heterogeneous data streams, including high-resolution hyperspectral imagery, LiDAR point clouds, and environmental data, is proposed to forecast maize crop yields. The architecture includes attention mechanisms that assign varying levels of importance to different modalities and temporal features that, reflect the dynamics of plant growth and environmental interactions. The interpretability of the attention weights is investigated in multi-modal networks that seek to both improve predictions and attribute crop yield outcomes to genetic and environmental variables. This approach also contributes to increased interpretability of the model's predictions. The temporal attention weight distributions highlighted relevant factors and critical growth stages that contribute to the predictions. The results of this study affirm that the attention weights are consistent with recognized biological growth stages, thereby substantiating the network's capability to learn biologically interpretable features. Accuracies of the model's predictions of yield ranged from 0.82-0.93 R 2 ref in this genetics-focused study, further highlighting the potential of attention-based models. Further, this research facilitates understanding of how multi-modality remote sensing aligns with the physiological stages of maize. The proposed architecture shows promise in improving predictions and offering interpretable insights into the factors affecting maize crop yields, while demonstrating the impact of data collection by different modalities through the growing season. By identifying relevant factors and critical growth stages, the model's attention weights provide valuable information that can be used in both plant breeding and crop management. The consistency of attention weights with biological growth stages reinforces the potential of deep learning networks in agricultural applications, particularly in leveraging remote sensing data for yield prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the use of hyperspectral and LiDAR UAV time series data for explaining/interpreting plant growth stages within deep learning networks and forecasting plot-level maize grain yield using late fusion modalities with attention mechanisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

The effect of along-front temperature variation in a two-dimensional primitive equation model of a surface frontogenesis

The effects of along-front temperature variations on the structure and evolution of surface fronts are investigated using a two-dimensional frontogenesis model. The formulation and characteristics of the confluence-horizontal shear model are described. The structures of three frontal zones forced by confluence and characterized by zero, negative, and positive along-front potential temperature variations are analyzed; particular attention is given to the ageostrophic vertical circulation and their forcings. The temporal evolution of the model frontal zones is examined in terms of the low-level maxima of vorticity, cross-front potential temperature gradient, and convergence. The kinematic and dynamic processes influencing the frontogenesis are discussed. It is noted that the two-dimensional model is applicable to the study of the dynamical properties of frontogenesis.

Keyser, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2004

Adaptable state based control system

An autonomous controller, comprised of a state knowledge manager, a control executor, hardware proxies and a statistical estimator collaborates with a goal elaborator, with which it shares common models of the behavior of the system and the controller. The elaborator uses the common models to generate from temporally indeterminate sets of goals, executable goals to be executed by the controller. The controller may be updated to operate in a different system or environment than that for which it was originally designed by the replacement of shared statistical models and by the instantiation of a new set of state variable objects derived from a state variable class. The adaptation of the controller does not require substantial modification of the goal elaborator for its application to the new system or environment.

Rasmussen, Robert D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating seasonal and regional distribution of snowfall in regional climate model simulations in the Arctic

In this study, we investigate how the regional climate model HIRHAM5 reproduces the spatial and temporal distribution of Arctic snowfall when compared to CloudSat satellite observations during the examined period of 2007–2010. For this purpose, both approaches, i.e., the assessments of the surface snowfall rate (observation-to-model) and the radar reflectivity factor profiles (model-to-observation), are carried out considering spatial and temporal sampling differences. The HIRHAM5 model, which is constrained in its synoptic representation by nudging to ERA-Interim, represents the snowfall in the Arctic region well in comparison to CloudSat products. The spatial distribution of the snowfall patterns is similar in both identifying the southeastern coast of Greenland and the North Atlantic corridor as regions gaining more than twice as much snowfall as the Arctic average, defined here for latitudes between 66 and 81°N. Excellent agreement (difference less than 1%) in the Arctic-averaged annual snowfall rate between HIRHAM5 and CloudSat is found, whereas ERA-Interim reanalysis shows an underestimation of 45% and significant deficits in the representation of the snowfall rate distribution. From the spatial analysis, it can be seen that the largest differences in the mean annual snowfall rates are an overestimation near the coastlines of Greenland and other regions with large orographic variations as well as an underestimation in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. To a large extent, the differences can be explained by clutter contamination, blind zone or higher resolution of CloudSat measurements, but clearly HIRHAM5 overestimates the orographic-driven precipitation. The underestimation of HIRHAM5 within the North Atlantic corridor south of Svalbard is likely connected to a poor description of the marine cold air outbreaks which could be identified by separating snowfall into different circulation weather type regimes. By simulating the radar reflectivity factor profiles from HIRHAM5 utilizing the Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer (PAMTRA) forward-modeling operator, the contribution of individual hydrometeor types can be assessed. Looking at a latitude band at 72–73°N, snow can be identified as the hydrometeor type dominating radar reflectivity factor values across all seasons. The largest differences between the observed and simulated reflectivity factor values are related to the contribution of cloud ice particles, which is underestimated in the model, most likely due to the small sizes of the particles. The model-to-observation approach offers a promising diagnostic when improving cloud schemes, as illustrated by comparison of different schemes available for HIRHAM5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Electrostatic charging of electrically active spacecraft

A model is presented which predicts the temporal behavior of the ionospheric charging of spacecraft which eject energetic positive ions. The dynamic interaction of the spacecraft with the space-plasma environment is modelled as an equivalent electrical circuit consisting of a variable capacitor in parallel with two current sources. The spacecraft/space-plasma sheath is modelled as a variable capacitor containing positive-ion space charge. The ejection of energetic positive ions from the spacecraft represents a current source which charges the capacitor. Return current collected from the space-plasma sheath to the spacecraft is modelled as a variable current source which discharges the capacitor. The model can predict the temporal behavior of sheath movement, spacecraft potential, and space-plasma return current for a wide range of altitude, duty cycle, and ejected positive-ion current. Experimentally measured charging results, obtained for the Satellite Positive Ion Beam System (SPIBS) rocket flight, are accurately predicted by the model. Anticipated vehicle charging levels are presented for neutral-particle-beam platforms operating with a net, unneutralized, positive-ion-current component present in the emitted neutral-particle beam.

Matossian, J. N.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Testing the Accuracy of Data-Driven MHD Simulations of Active Region Evolution

Models for the evolution of the solar coronal magnetic field are vital for understanding solar activity, yet the best measurements of the magnetic field lie at the photosphere, necessitating the development of coronal models which are "data-driven" at the photosphere. We present an investigation to determine the feasibility and accuracy of such methods. Our validation framework uses a simulation of active region (AR) formation, modeling the emergence of magnetic flux from the convection zone to the corona, as a ground-truth data set, to supply both the photospheric information and to perform the validation of the data-driven method. We focus our investigation on how the accuracy of the data-driven model depends on the temporal frequency of the driving data. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory produces full-disk vector magnetic field measurements at a 12-minute cadence. Using our framework we show that ARs that emerge over 25 hours can be modeled by the data-driving method with only approximately 1 percent error in the free magnetic energy, assuming the photospheric information is specified every 12 minutes. However, for rapidly evolving features, under-sampling of the dynamics at this cadence leads to a strobe effect, generating large electric currents and incorrect coronal morphology and energies. We derive a sampling condition for the driving cadence based on the evolution of these small-scale features, and show that higher-cadence driving can lead to acceptable errors. Future work will investigate the source of errors associated with deriving plasma variables from the photospheric magnetograms as well as other sources of errors, such as reduced resolution, instrument bias, and noise.

Leake, James E.↗