Results for “Uncertainty management” — Page 23

NASA NTRS2016

Effects of Acute Exposures to Carbon Dioxide Upon Cognitive Functions

Large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2) originate from human metabolism and typically, within spacecraft, remain about 10-fold higher in concentration than at the earth's surface. There have been recurring complaints by crew members of episodes of "mental viscosity" adversely affecting their performance, and there is evidence from the International Space Station (ISS) that associates CO2 levels with reports of headaches by crewmembers. Additionally, there is concern that CO2 may contribute to vision impairment and intracranial pressure that has been observed in some crewmembers. Consequently, flight rules have been employed to control the level of CO2 below 4 mm Hg, which is well below the existing Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentration (SMAC) of 10 mm Hg for 24-hour exposures, and 5.3 mm Hg for exposures of 7 to 180 days. However, the flight rule imposed limit, which places additional demands upon resources and current technology, still exceeds the lower bound of the threshold range for reportable headaches (2 - 5 mm Hg). Headaches, while sometime debilitating themselves, are also symptoms that can provide evidence that physiological defense mechanisms have been breached. The causes of the headaches may elicit other subtle adverse effects that occur at CO2 levels well below that for headaches. The concern that CO2 may have effects at levels below the threshold for headaches appears to be substantiated in unexpected findings that CO2 at concentrations below 2 mm Hg substantially reduced some cognitive functions that are associated with the ability to make complex decisions in conditions that are characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, and delayed feedback. These are conditions that could be encountered by crews in off-nominal situations or during the first missions beyond low earth orbit. If findings of the earlier study are confirmed in crew-like subjects, our findings would provide additional evidence that CO2 may need to be controlled at levels that are well below current spacecraft limits. Our study will extend the earlier study to determine if crew-like subjects are similarly effected by CO2. In addition to employing the Strategic Management Simulation tool, we will use the Cognition battery of psychometric measures that are being utilized aboard the ISS. It will be important to learn, by using Cognition, if additional cognitive domains are sensitive to concentrations of CO2 at or below limits currently controlled by flight rules. While spaceflight Cognition data will greatly enhance the knowledge base related to inflight behavioral health and performance, some of the measures may be influenced by fatigue (related to sleep deprivation and or workload) and changes in circadian rhythms. Therefore our use of this battery of tests in a well-controlled, ground-based study that is free of these potential confounding influences will establish a baseline terrestrial data set against which Cognition data collected in flight may be assessed. The findings from this study will be useful to the NASA Toxicology Office and the National Research Council Committee on Toxicology, which assists NASA in setting environmental standards, for revision of the SMAC for CO2, and for designing further studies on effects of CO2 upon cognitive functions.

Scully, R. R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Wind Tunnel Test Technique and Instrumentation Development at LaRC

LaRC has an aggressive test technique development program underway. This program has been developed using 3rd Generation R&D management techniques and is a closely coordinated program between suppliers and wind tunnel operators- wind tunnel customers' informal input relative to their needs has been an essential ingredient in developing the research portfolio. An attempt has been made to balance this portfolio to meet near term and long term test technique needs. Major efforts are underway to develop techniques for determining model wing twist and location of boundary layer transition in the NTF (National Transonic Facility). The foundation of all new instrumentation developments, procurements, and upgrades will be based on uncertainty analysis.

Putnam, Lawrence E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Variability↗

NASA NTRS2021

Air Pollution Trends Measured From Terra: CO and AOD Over Industrial, Fire-prone, and Background Regions

Following past studies to quantify decadal trends in global carbon monoxide (CO) using satellite observations, we update estimates and find a CO trend in column amounts of about −0.50 % per year between 2002 to 2018, which is a deceleration compared to analyses performed on shorter records that found −1 % per year. Aerosols are co-emitted with CO from both fires and anthropogenic sources but with a shorter lifetime than CO. A combined trend analysis of CO and aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from space helps to diagnose the drivers of regional differences in the CO trend. We use the long-term records of CO from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) and AOD from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. Other satellite instruments measuring CO in the thermal infrared, AIRS, TES, IASI, and CrIS, show consistent hemispheric CO variability and corroborate results from the trend analysis performed with MOPITT CO. Trends are examined by hemisphere and in regions for 2002 to 2018, with uncertainties quantified. The CO and AOD records are split into two sub-periods (2002 to 2010 and 2010 to 2018) in order to assess trend changes over the 16 years. We focus on four major population centers: Northeast China, North India, Europe, and Eastern USA, as well as fire-prone regions in both hemispheres. In general, CO declines faster in the first half of the record compared to the second half, while AOD trends show more variability across regions. We find evidence of the atmospheric impact of air quality management policies. The large decline in CO found over Northeast China is initially associated with an improvement in combustion efficiency, with subsequent additional air quality improvements from 2010 onwards. Industrial regions with minimal emission control measures such as North India become more globally relevant as the global CO trend weakens. We also examine the CO trends in monthly percentile values to understand seasonal implications and find that local changes in biomass burning are sufficiently strong to counteract the global downward trend in atmospheric CO, particularly in late summer.

carbon monoxide↗

NASA NTRS1994

Cryogenic on-orbit liquid depot storage acquisition and transfer (COLD-SAT) experiment subsystem instrumentation and wire harness design report

Subcritical cryogens such as liquid hydrogen (LH2) and liquid oxygen (LO2) are required for space based transportation propellant, reactant, and life support systems. Future long-duration space missions will require on-orbit systems capable of long-term cryogen storage and efficient fluid transfer capabilities. COLD-SAT, which stands for cryogenic orbiting liquid depot-storage acquisition and transfer, is a free-flying liquid hydrogen management flight experiment. Experiments to determine optimum methods of fluid storage and transfer will be performed on the COLD-SAT mission. The success of the mission is directly related to the type and accuracy of measurements made. The instrumentation and measurement techniques used are therefore critical to the success of the mission. This paper presents the results of the COLD-SAT experiment subsystem instrumentation and wire harness design effort. Candidate transducers capable of fulfilling the COLD-SAT experiment measurement requirements are identified. Signal conditioning techniques, data acquisition requirements, and measurement uncertainty analysis are presented. Electrical harnessing materials and wiring techniques for the instrumentation designed to minimize heat conduction to the cryogenic tanks and provide optimum measurement accuracy are listed.

Edwards, Lawrence G.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Demonstration of a Spoken Dialogue Interface for Planning Activities of a Semi-autonomous Robot

Planning and scheduling in the face of uncertainty and change pushes the capabilities of both planning and dialogue technologies by requiring complex negotiation to arrive at a workable plan. Planning for use of semi-autonomous robots involves negotiation among multiple participants with competing scientific and engineering goals to co-construct a complex plan. In NASA applications this plan construction is done under severe time pressure so having a dialogue interface to the plan construction tools can aid rapid completion of the process. But, this will put significant demands on spoken dialogue technology, particularly in the areas of dialogue management and generation. The dialogue interface will need to be able to handle the complex dialogue strategies that occur in negotiation dialogues, including hypotheticals and revisions, and the generation component will require an ability to summarize complex plans. This demonstration will describe a work in progress towards building a spoken dialogue interface to the EUROPA planner for the purposes of planning and scheduling the activities of a semi-autonomous robot. A prototype interface has been built for planning the schedule of the Personal Satellite Assistant (PSA), a mobile robot designed for micro-gravity environments that is intended for use on the Space Shuttle and International Space Station. The spoken dialogue interface gives the user the capability to ask for a description of the plan, ask specific questions about the plan, and update or modify the plan. We anticipate that a spoken dialogue interface to the planner will provide a natural augmentation or alternative to the visualization interface, in situations in which the user needs very targeted information about the plan, in situations where natural language can express complex ideas more concisely than GUI actions, or in situations in which a graphical user interface is not appropriate.

Dowding, John↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Based Approaches for Fault Detection, Prognostics, Decision Making in Complex Systems

The presentation discusses application of model based approaches to complex systems. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.

Physics Informed↗

NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Heat transfer in a compact heat exchanger containing rectangular channels and using helium gas

Development of a National Aerospace Plane (NASP), which will fly at hypersonic speeds, require novel cooling techniques to manage the anticipated high heat fluxes on various components. A compact heat exchanger was constructed consisting of 12 parallel, rectangular channels in a flat piece of commercially pure nickel. The channel specimen was radiatively heated on the top side at heat fluxes of up to 77 W/sq cm, insulated on the back side, and cooled with helium gas flowing in the channels at 3.5 to 7.0 MPa and Reynolds numbers of 1400 to 28,000. The measured friction factor was lower than that of the accepted correlation for fully developed turbulent flow, although the uncertainty was high due to uncertainty in the channel height and a high ratio of dynamic pressure to pressure drop. The measured Nusselt number, when modified to account for differences in fluid properties between the wall and the cooling fluid, agreed with past correlations for fully developed turbulent flow in channels. Flow nonuniformity from channel-to-channel was as high as 12 pct above and 19 pct below the mean flow.

Olson, D. A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Measured and Modeled Vineyard Canopy Development and Water Use

Two publicly available applications relevant to vineyard irrigation management are described. OpenET is a satellite-based system that applies an ensemble of remote sensing methods to enable wide-area monitoring of evapotranspiration (ET) and related measures such as vegetation canopy development (via the NDVI spectral index). Data are freely available at one-quarter acre spatial resolution, and may be automatically aggregated to the individual block level. The satellite-based daily ET data were compared with in-situ eddy covariance measurements collected by micro-meteorological instrumentation in a Central Coast vineyard over a three-year period (2020-2022). Estimation uncertainties were reasonably consistent with prior reports for GRAPEX sites in the Central Valley and North Coast. The CropManage (CM) web application is a free software tool developed and operated U.C. Cooperative Extension for ET-based irrigation scheduling of major specialty crops. CM provides specific guidance for irrigation events in terms of irrigation system runtime. Applied water recommendations are based largely on estimated ET, derived from assumed canopy cover and associated crop coefficients, since the last irrigation or rainfall event. The application was recently adapted to vineyards by accounting for presence of winter/spring cover crop, and vine water stress imposed by regulated deficit irrigation. A 2022 field campaign involved 12 Central Coast and San Joaquin Valley commercial vineyards, and OpenET data were used to help evaluate CM output. Maximum percent vine cover was compared to estimates derived from average July satellite NDVI. The difference for 10 sites lacking midseason groundcover ranged from 0-7% between datasets with average agreement near 4%. Cumulative ET estimates agreed with OpenET to within 12% at the majority of sites, while larger discrepancies at the remaining sites may require additional data collection and analysis during the 2023 season. Satellite based systems such as OpenET have the potential to help parameterize CropManage and similar agricultural decision-support systems.

Measured↗

NASA NTRS2014

Learning the Task Management Space of an Aircraft Approach Model

Validating models of airspace operations is a particular challenge. These models are often aimed at finding and exploring safety violations, and aim to be accurate representations of real-world behavior. However, the rules governing the behavior are quite complex: nonlinear physics, operational modes, human behavior, and stochastic environmental concerns all determine the responses of the system. In this paper, we present a study on aircraft runway approaches as modeled in Georgia Tech's Work Models that Compute (WMC) simulation. We use a new learner, Genetic-Active Learning for Search-Based Software Engineering (GALE) to discover the Pareto frontiers defined by cognitive structures. These cognitive structures organize the prioritization and assignment of tasks of each pilot during approaches. We discuss the benefits of our approach, and also discuss future work necessary to enable uncertainty quantification.

Validation↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Hypothesis on Biological Protection from Space Radiation Through the Use of New Therapeutic Gases as Medical Counter Measures

Exposure to astronauts could be a significant obstacle for long duration manned space exploration because of current uncertainties regarding the extent of biological effects. Furthermore, concepts for protective shielding also pose a technically challenging issue due to the nature of cosmic radiation and current mass and power constraints with modern exploration technology. As biological damage from exposure is associated with increased oxidative stress, it would be enabling to mitigate and/or prevent stress prior to the development of clinical symptoms and disease. This paper hypothesizes a "systems biology" approach in which a combination of chemical and biological mitigation techniques are used conjunctively. It proposes using new, therapeutic, medical gases as both chemical radioprotectors for radical scavenging and biological promoters for management of the body s response to exposure. From reviewing radiochemistry of water, biological effects of CO, H2, NO, and H2S gas, and mechanisms of radiation biology, it is concluded that this approach may have great therapeutic potential for exposure. Furthermore, it also appears to have potential for curtailing the pathogenesis of other diseases in which oxidative stress has been implicated including cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic inflammatory disease, hypertension, ischemia/reperfusion injury, acute respiratory distress syndrome, Parkinson s and Alzheimer s disease, cataracts, and aging.

Schoenfeld, Michael P.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Risk Trade-Space Analysis for Safe Human Expeditions to Mars

We assessed the integrated safety, health, and performance risk to crews on long-duration missions, specifically to Mars. Using a systems approach rather than one focused on individual countermeasures, we examined the trade space around several such risks to identify high-potential risk mitigation strategies and characterize aspects of Mars mission architectures that could lower aggregated risk. Current Mars Design Reference missions would require durations well over two years and would increase crew exposure to radiation and microgravity well beyond ISS levels, likely resulting in significantly reduced performance beyond our current capability to mitigate that could jeopardize mission success. A “fast Mars transit” round-trip mission concept was studied using an innovative flight dynamics approach to quantify the minimum total mission energy required for a Mars transit with total mission duration less than 400 days. This approach holds promise for sending humans to Mars and returning them safely with acceptable, potentially mitigatable, exposure to microgravity and radiation using current or near-term technologies. The fast transit concept would also result in fewer time-driven vehicle failures and enable sustainable deployment of humans and infrastructure to Mars on a regular cadence, allowing steady exploration and colonization of Mars. Finally, we conclude that reliance on the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mission operations paradigm – i.e., one of near-complete real-time dependence on experts at Mission Control to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew – is high risk given the communication delays and limited resupply of any Mars mission, and this risk is not eliminated by the shorter missions durations of fast transit scenarios. Based on historical trends, it is highly likely that the crew will face a high-consequence problem of uncertain origin during Mars transit when ground support will be greatly reduced. While it may be possible to reduce anomaly rates through improved reliability analysis and testing, and to reduce anomaly impacts through added robustness, such mitigations address only known failure modes and known uncertainties. Therefore, a radical shift in the Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) that defines the operational paradigm, systems design, and human-systems interactions is required to improve the risk posture to an acceptable level regardless of mission duration.

Mars↗

NASA NTRS2003

Transferring Knowledge from Observations and Models to Decision Makers: An Overview and Challenges

Over the last 25 years, a tremendous progress has been made in the Earth science space-based remote sensing observations, technologies and algorithms. Such advancements have improved the predictability by providing lead-time and accuracy of forecast in weather, climate, natural hazards, and natural resources. It has further reduced or bounded the overall uncertainties by partially improving our understanding of planet Earth as an integrated system that is governed by non-linear and chaotic behavior. Many countries such US, European Community, Japan, China and others have invested billions of dollars in developing and launching space-based assets in the low earth (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) orbits. However, the wealth of this scientific knowledge that has potential of extracting monumental socio-economic benefits from such large investments have been slow in reaching to public and decision makers. For instance, there are a number of areas such as energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural competitiveness, disaster management, security, air quality and public health can directly take advantage. Nevertheless, we all live in a global economy that depends on access to the best available Earth Science information for all inhabitants of this planet. This paper surveys and examines a number such applications in terms of their architecture, maturity and economic applicability as they apply to the societal needs. A detailed analysis is also presented of various challenges and issues that pertain to a number of areas such as: (1) difficulties in making a speedy transition of data and information from observations and models to relevant Decision Support Systems (DSS) or tools, (2) data and models inter-operability issues, (3) limitations of spatial, spectral and temporal resolution, (4) communication limitations as dictated by the availability of image processing and data compression techniques. Additionally, the most critical element amongst all is the organizational and management boundaries that must be resolved at local, state, national and international levels to implement and realize free flow of such vital information. This paper also makes attempts to address this topic and discuss possible approaches to deal with this quandary.

Habib, Shahid↗

NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Structural Health Monitoring of the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge

A structural health monitoring (SHM) system can contribute to the risk management of a structure operating under hazardous conditions. An example is the Wing Leading Edge Impact Detection System (WLEIDS) that monitors the debris hazards to the Space Shuttle Orbiter s Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels. Since Return-to-Flight (RTF) after the Columbia accident, WLEIDS was developed and subsequently deployed on board the Orbiter to detect ascent and on-orbit debris impacts, so as to support the assessment of wing leading edge structural integrity prior to Orbiter re-entry. As SHM is inherently an inverse problem, the analyses involved, including those performed for WLEIDS, tend to be associated with significant uncertainty. The use of probabilistic approaches to handle the uncertainty has resulted in the successful implementation of many development and application milestones.

Yap, Keng C.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Generation and evoluation of near-optimum vertical flight profiles

The overall objectives of this research effort have been to develop and evaluate algorithms and flight management concepts for minimization of fuel or direct operating costs. These concepts are to be used for flight planning or for on-board computation and steering of turbojet transport aircraft in the vertical path. Within this research context, a computer program, called OPTIM, has been developed to use these algorithms to generate near-optimum vertical reference profiles. OPTIM contains control options to examine effects of various flight constraints on cost performance. A companion program, called TRAGEN, was developed to simulate an aircraft flying along a given vertical reference profile. TRAGEN is used to verify OPTIM's output , to examine the effects of parameter value uncertainty (such as prevailing wind), and to compare cost performance of profiles generated by different techniques. This paper describes OPTIM and TRAGEN and presents examples of the programs utility.

Sorensen, J. A.↗